PASADENA, Calif. - They could've saved us all that trouble and just had the Rose Bowl the way it's meant to be played - Pac-12 vs. Big Ten in the Granddaddy of 'em All.
Instead, Oregon and Ohio State will face off in Jerry World, a palace built for pro football, to settle who gets the biggest prize in college football.
But the combatants in the inaugural College Football Playoff should be grateful that the BCS died a timely death. If it had been around for one more year, both the Ducks and Buckeyes would've been home watching the championship game as the the BCS standings would've matched up Alabama and Florida State instead.
Now the Jan. 12 game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, not only will settle the national championship question, it will also decide just which conference will inherit the mantle of "best conference in college football" from the dearly departed SEC.
Alabama's loss to Ohio State signaled the end of an era as the SEC will be absent from the national championship game for the first time since USC faced Texas in the Rose Bowl for the 2005 title. Each of the top five teams in the SEC West lost its bowl game after being trumpeted as the best division in college football throughout the 2014 regular season.
In contrast, the Pac-12 South actually can rightfully claim the "toughest division" moniker. Five of its six teams will finish with at least nine wins despite each facing at least 10 Power 5 opponents - more than any of their SEC West counterparts. And the best team in the Pac-12 didn't even come from this division.
That would be Oregon, which has beaten every team on its schedule, avenging its only regular-season loss by massacring South champion Arizona in the Pac-12 title game. The Ducks were even more merciless in their evisceration of Florida State, which was buried under an avalanche of second-half turnovers (five) in a 59-20 rout in the Rose Bowl.
Oregon punished FSU and Jameis Winston in a matchup featuring the last two Heisman Trophy winners. Winston lost one fumble - that was returned for a touchdown - and threw two interceptions. Oregon also converted two Dalvin Cook fumbles early in the third quarter into touchdowns and turned a close game into a mauling.
But the Ducks' blowout victory won't give the Pac-12 a long-awaited shot to dethrone the SEC, which had been the undisputed best conference in the latter part of the BCS era. Instead, in their path will be Ohio State and the Big Ten, which is rebuilding suddenly and ferociously. It all began on Tuesday when Michigan made the monster hire of Jim Harbaugh as coach and continued on New Year's Day with Michigan State rallying past Baylor in a thrilling Cotton Bowl.
But the lodestar that will guide the Big Ten's revival for now is Ohio State, which scored an unlikely 42-35 victory over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. The Buckeyes can take it a step further by snuffing out the budding Ducks dynasty as it did in the Rose Bowl after the 2009 season.
But these Ducks appear to be a better version than that team, or the 2010 team that fell to Auburn in the BCS title game on a fluke play. Heisman winner Marcus Mariota has been nearly flawless all season, throwing for 40 touchdowns, running for 15, receiving one with just three interceptions. Oregon's defense also proved to be anything but soft, allowing FSU only one second-half touchdown as Oregon scored the final 34 points of the game.
Oregon certainly hasn't missed a beat since Mark Helfrich took over from Chip Kelly, who bolted for the NFL after the 2012 season. Helfrich, 24-3 in his two seasons, knows how good his team is and declined to state just what it has proved and will prove with one more win.
"I don't know," he said after the Rose Bowl victory, laughing. "That's up to you. You guys are the geniuses in the media. We believe a ton in our deal and we believe a ton in who we are. We got a great team, great team of guys."
For much of the second half, as Oregon was completing its demolition of Florida State, Ducks fans repeatedly chanted "We Want Bama." They probably won't mind that the Crimson Tide couldn't keep the date as their conference's dominance has already fallen into the ash heap of history.
Showing posts with label Rose Bowl. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rose Bowl. Show all posts
Thursday, January 1, 2015
Monday, January 6, 2014
BCS Goes Out in a Blaze of Glory
PASADENA, Calif. — After 16 years, the BCS is finally dead. But it did not go away quietly.
And for that, college football is grateful.
Jameis Winston's 2-yard TD pass to Kelvin Benjamin with 13 seconds remaining capped the biggest comeback in the history of BCS' 16 championship games. On the same Rose Bowl field and in the same south end zone where Vince Young made his epic dash to immortality in 2006, Florida State's precocious Heisman-winning quarterback claimed his own place in college football lore—on his 20th birthday, no less.
Florida State's 34-31 victory over Auburn brought down the curtain on the BCS era, which began in the 1998 season when an SEC team (Tennessee) defeated the Seminoles for the first crystal ball. FSU would lose two of the first three BCS title games, but gained more than a measure of redemption Monday night for the rest of college football universe by ending the SEC's seven-year championship dominance.
It was fitting that the BCS era—and the SEC's reign—ended in the spiritual home of college football. In a brilliant evening at the Rose Bowl—home of the Granddaddy of 'Em All—the much-maligned BCS had the ultimate setting, with game-time temperature of 69 degrees, against the backdrop of San Gabriel Mountains at dusk and a packed house of 94,208.
Early on, though, the game threatened to be a runaway and another SEC romp. Auburn took a 21-3 lead with five minutes left in the first half and was on the verge to break it open as a flustered Winston was unable to move the ball. Florida State's defense also had trouble with Auburn's no-huddle pace, giving up eight of 12 third-down conversion opportunities.
But as FSU's defense stiffened in the second half, Winston and the Seminoles clawed back.
After cutting Auburn's lead to 21-20 early in the fourth quarter, the game reached a glorious crescendo in the final five minutes. The teams traded four scores in the final 4:42, featuring a 105-yard kickoff return by FSU's Kermit Whitfield and a 37-yard scamper by Auburn's Tre Mason that looked like the game-winner before Winston led the Noles' actual winning drive in a mere 58 seconds.
FSU's victory is a vindication that there is more to college football than the SEC. But ironically, it was the vision that came from the SEC that helped forge the BCS and remake college football into the spectacle it is today.
Before the BCS, college football was mostly a regional affair, with each major conference having its respective bowl tie-ins. Media members and coaches would vote on the national champion at the end of each season, divining the superiority of one team over another purely on speculation, since many of the top contenders never met each other on the field.
From the end of World War II until the advent of the BCS in 1998, the Rose Bowl never featured a team not coming from either the Big Ten or Pac-10 (now Pac-12) conference.
It took former SEC commissioner Roy Kramer, the godfather of the BCS, to finally persuade the Big Ten, Pac-10 and the Rose Bowl—the most venerable and prestigious bowl game—to loosen their alliance to allow the top two ranked teams to play for the title annually.
In the 1998 Rose Bowl, the final one played before the BCS' creation, Michigan won a split national championship, the fourth consecutive split winner produced in Pasadena. After the advent of the BCS, there had been just one split championship, in 2003, when USC won the Rose Bowl and the AP title while LSU took the BCS title at the Sugar Bowl.
In the 2006 Rose Bowl, which remains the highest-rated game in college football history, Texas ended two-time defending champion USC's dynasty when it overcame a 12-point deficit as Vince Young scored from five yards out with 19 seconds remaining to snap the Trojans' 34-game winning streak.
Eight years later, the Seminoles dug themselves out of an 18-point hole and broke the SEC's seven-year stranglehold—and the state of Alabama's four-year ownership—on the crystal ball.
"The ACC is good football, folks," Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher spoke up for his conference in particular and non-SEC football in general after the game. "It's a great football conference. We have a great commissioner, we have great coaches, we've got great players. We had 11 teams in bowl games. The SEC is great football, I coached in that league for 13 years, I respect every bit of it. But there's some other folks in this country that can play some football, too."
That sentiment will be put to test again next year when college football moves into the next phase with the four-team College Football Playoff. The two semifinal games will be played at the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl, with the winners advancing to the championship game at the Dallas Cowboys' palace in Arlington, Texas.
But thank heavens there was no need for another game this year. The season ended in spectacular fashion and in the right place. The BCS might be dead, but it bequeathed college football an unforgettable parting gift.
And for that, college football is grateful.
Jameis Winston's 2-yard TD pass to Kelvin Benjamin with 13 seconds remaining capped the biggest comeback in the history of BCS' 16 championship games. On the same Rose Bowl field and in the same south end zone where Vince Young made his epic dash to immortality in 2006, Florida State's precocious Heisman-winning quarterback claimed his own place in college football lore—on his 20th birthday, no less.
Florida State's 34-31 victory over Auburn brought down the curtain on the BCS era, which began in the 1998 season when an SEC team (Tennessee) defeated the Seminoles for the first crystal ball. FSU would lose two of the first three BCS title games, but gained more than a measure of redemption Monday night for the rest of college football universe by ending the SEC's seven-year championship dominance.
It was fitting that the BCS era—and the SEC's reign—ended in the spiritual home of college football. In a brilliant evening at the Rose Bowl—home of the Granddaddy of 'Em All—the much-maligned BCS had the ultimate setting, with game-time temperature of 69 degrees, against the backdrop of San Gabriel Mountains at dusk and a packed house of 94,208.
Early on, though, the game threatened to be a runaway and another SEC romp. Auburn took a 21-3 lead with five minutes left in the first half and was on the verge to break it open as a flustered Winston was unable to move the ball. Florida State's defense also had trouble with Auburn's no-huddle pace, giving up eight of 12 third-down conversion opportunities.
But as FSU's defense stiffened in the second half, Winston and the Seminoles clawed back.
After cutting Auburn's lead to 21-20 early in the fourth quarter, the game reached a glorious crescendo in the final five minutes. The teams traded four scores in the final 4:42, featuring a 105-yard kickoff return by FSU's Kermit Whitfield and a 37-yard scamper by Auburn's Tre Mason that looked like the game-winner before Winston led the Noles' actual winning drive in a mere 58 seconds.
FSU's victory is a vindication that there is more to college football than the SEC. But ironically, it was the vision that came from the SEC that helped forge the BCS and remake college football into the spectacle it is today.
Before the BCS, college football was mostly a regional affair, with each major conference having its respective bowl tie-ins. Media members and coaches would vote on the national champion at the end of each season, divining the superiority of one team over another purely on speculation, since many of the top contenders never met each other on the field.
From the end of World War II until the advent of the BCS in 1998, the Rose Bowl never featured a team not coming from either the Big Ten or Pac-10 (now Pac-12) conference.
It took former SEC commissioner Roy Kramer, the godfather of the BCS, to finally persuade the Big Ten, Pac-10 and the Rose Bowl—the most venerable and prestigious bowl game—to loosen their alliance to allow the top two ranked teams to play for the title annually.
In the 1998 Rose Bowl, the final one played before the BCS' creation, Michigan won a split national championship, the fourth consecutive split winner produced in Pasadena. After the advent of the BCS, there had been just one split championship, in 2003, when USC won the Rose Bowl and the AP title while LSU took the BCS title at the Sugar Bowl.
In the 2006 Rose Bowl, which remains the highest-rated game in college football history, Texas ended two-time defending champion USC's dynasty when it overcame a 12-point deficit as Vince Young scored from five yards out with 19 seconds remaining to snap the Trojans' 34-game winning streak.
Eight years later, the Seminoles dug themselves out of an 18-point hole and broke the SEC's seven-year stranglehold—and the state of Alabama's four-year ownership—on the crystal ball.
"The ACC is good football, folks," Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher spoke up for his conference in particular and non-SEC football in general after the game. "It's a great football conference. We have a great commissioner, we have great coaches, we've got great players. We had 11 teams in bowl games. The SEC is great football, I coached in that league for 13 years, I respect every bit of it. But there's some other folks in this country that can play some football, too."
That sentiment will be put to test again next year when college football moves into the next phase with the four-team College Football Playoff. The two semifinal games will be played at the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl, with the winners advancing to the championship game at the Dallas Cowboys' palace in Arlington, Texas.
But thank heavens there was no need for another game this year. The season ended in spectacular fashion and in the right place. The BCS might be dead, but it bequeathed college football an unforgettable parting gift.
Thursday, January 2, 2014
BCS Review Series: 2005, Perfect Season Ends at the Rose Bowl
Part 8 of a series: Over the next few weeks, I will be reviewing each of the 16 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. Here is a look back at who got lucky, who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear throughout December and January.
Part 1: 1998, A New Beginning for College Football
Part 2: 1999, FSU Ends Michael Vick's Quest for Perfection
Part 3: 2000, FSU-Miami Sows Seeds of Controversy
Part 4: 2001, Nebraska Fiasco Rocks College Football
Part 5: 2002, Controversy On-Field Mars Perfect Ending
Part 6: 2003, Nightmare of Split National Championship
Part 7: 2004, Unbeaten Auburn Left Out in the Cold
---
Without a doubt, 2005 was BCS nirvana.
It was the best season in BCS's 16-year existence. It was its most controversy-free season. And it ended with its best championship game, in the best setting possible for college football—the Rose Bowl.
USC, after winning back-to-back AP national titles, was back for an unprecedented three-peat. It had a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback who surprised everyone by returning for his senior season. It had a soon-to-be Heisman-winning running back. It had NFL first-round picks up the ying-yang on offense. But its defense was somewhat suspect.
No matter, the Trojans blew through the schedule by lighting up the scoreboard. They won a thriller in South Bend when their Heisman combo Matt Leinart-Reggie Bush orchestrated a final second touchdown to beat Notre Dame. They escaped Fresno State when Bush produce a career worth of highlights in a single game, piling up 513 total yards. USC rolled into the Rose Bowl for the national championship with a 34-game winning streak after destroying UCLA, 66-19.
Keeping on the Trojans' heels was No. 2 Texas, led by junior quarterback Vince Young, a Heisman hopeful himself. The Longhorns were ranked right behind USC the entire season, and were a juggernaut in their own right. After getting by Ohio State in Columbus in the second game of the season, Texas scored at least 40 points and won by double-digits every game. The Longhorns claimed their date with USC by nuking Colorado in the Big 12 title game, 70-3.
In this BCS perfect season, everything fell into place. Penn State, the only other team that might otherwise had a claim on the title game, was done in by Michigan's Mario Manningham, who caught a TD pass on the game's final play to thwart perfection for the Lions. Alabama, the last unbeaten team besides USC and Texas, bowed out of the race on Nov. 12 after a loss to LSU.
The national championship game was a classic. The Trojans jumped ahead. The Longhorns took the lead by halftime. USC regained control in the second half and was one play away from finishing off its three-peat. On fourth-and-2 at the Texas 45, with 2:13 remaining and Texas out of timeouts, the Trojans elected to go for a first down instead of punting to protect a 38-33 lead.
Bush, the Heisman winning back, was on the sideline. The Trojans loaded up the left side of the line and ran Lendale White off tackle. It was a play full of machismo (called by then-offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin). USC had run this play three times in crucial situations in this game and prevailed each time. It dared Texas to stop it.
The Longhorns did. White was stuffed a yard short and Young got the ball back. He methodically drove Texas downfield, scoring the game-winner on fourth-and-5 with 19 seconds left. Texas ended the Trojans' reign and won its first national title since 1970.
Final BCS Standings: 1. USC, 2. Texas, 3. Penn State, 4. Ohio State, 5. Oregon, 6. Notre Dame.
Alternative Methods
Using 1998-2003 (BCS I) Formula: 1. USC, 2. Texas, 3. Penn State, 4. Ohio State.
Likely four-team playoff: USC vs. Ohio State; Texas vs. Penn State.
The last spot would be up for grabs between two-loss Ohio State and Notre Dame. The Buckeyes' losses were to Penn State and Texas and shared the Big Ten title with Penn State whereas the Irish lost to USC and 5-6 Michigan State. OSU also had much better computer rankings than ND (4th vs. 10th). And in reality, these teams did meet in the Fiesta Bowl, with OSU winning 34-20.
Controversies
There was little regarding the BCS. The title game was only slightly marred by instant replay malfunction, which allowed a disputed Texas touchdown to stand in the second quarter. Young's knee was down on the play before he lateraled the ball to Selvin Young, who ran 12 yards for the score to put Texas ahead, 9-7. The play was not reviewed because the equipment wasn't working.
BCS Formula Review: After the controversy of the previous year when Texas leapfrogged California for a Rose Bowl berth, the BCS made another tweak with the formula, out of necessity. A number of AP voters were besieged by angry fans who found fault with their ballots. As a result, the AP sent a cease-and-desist letter demanding that the AP poll be removed from the BCS formula.
The BCS hastily contracted Harris Interactive to furnish a replacement poll, which debuted in 2005. The poll featured over 100 voters who were former athletic directors, coaches and players, as well as members of the media. Unlike the AP poll or the coaches poll, the Harris Poll did not have a preseason poll, wasn't released until mid-season, and didn't have an end-of-season final poll.
With the installment of the Harris Interactive Poll as part of the standings, the BCS formula would remain unchanged until the very end. The final nine seasons of BCS's existence had the exact same formula, after undergoing six changes in its first seven seasons.
Final analysis: The USC-Texas game was easily the most thrilling, not to mention the most-watched BCS championship game (and college football game, of all time, with a record TV rating of 21.7), thanks to the star power of both teams.
The BCS deserved credit for making it happen. Under the previous bowl regime, USC would've played (and most likely, beaten) Penn State in the Rose Bowl whereas Texas would've faced (and also beaten) either one-loss Oregon or two-loss Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl. Because of their status as the two-time defending champion and had been top-ranked all season, the Trojans most likely would've been voted No. 1 in both polls while the Longhorns would've been relegated to No. 2.
The 2006 Rose Bowl also marked the end of the Phase I of the BCS bowl rotation. After two consecutive cycles of playing four BCS bowls with eight berths, the BCS, partly under pressure, would expand to a "double-host" setup following the 2005 season. An extra game would be added to allow more access for non-BCS teams and a championship game was added, to be played about a week after the traditional New Year's Day bowl games.
Part 1: 1998, A New Beginning for College Football
Part 2: 1999, FSU Ends Michael Vick's Quest for Perfection
Part 3: 2000, FSU-Miami Sows Seeds of Controversy
Part 4: 2001, Nebraska Fiasco Rocks College Football
Part 5: 2002, Controversy On-Field Mars Perfect Ending
Part 6: 2003, Nightmare of Split National Championship
Part 7: 2004, Unbeaten Auburn Left Out in the Cold
---
Without a doubt, 2005 was BCS nirvana.
It was the best season in BCS's 16-year existence. It was its most controversy-free season. And it ended with its best championship game, in the best setting possible for college football—the Rose Bowl.
USC, after winning back-to-back AP national titles, was back for an unprecedented three-peat. It had a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback who surprised everyone by returning for his senior season. It had a soon-to-be Heisman-winning running back. It had NFL first-round picks up the ying-yang on offense. But its defense was somewhat suspect.
No matter, the Trojans blew through the schedule by lighting up the scoreboard. They won a thriller in South Bend when their Heisman combo Matt Leinart-Reggie Bush orchestrated a final second touchdown to beat Notre Dame. They escaped Fresno State when Bush produce a career worth of highlights in a single game, piling up 513 total yards. USC rolled into the Rose Bowl for the national championship with a 34-game winning streak after destroying UCLA, 66-19.
Keeping on the Trojans' heels was No. 2 Texas, led by junior quarterback Vince Young, a Heisman hopeful himself. The Longhorns were ranked right behind USC the entire season, and were a juggernaut in their own right. After getting by Ohio State in Columbus in the second game of the season, Texas scored at least 40 points and won by double-digits every game. The Longhorns claimed their date with USC by nuking Colorado in the Big 12 title game, 70-3.
In this BCS perfect season, everything fell into place. Penn State, the only other team that might otherwise had a claim on the title game, was done in by Michigan's Mario Manningham, who caught a TD pass on the game's final play to thwart perfection for the Lions. Alabama, the last unbeaten team besides USC and Texas, bowed out of the race on Nov. 12 after a loss to LSU.
The national championship game was a classic. The Trojans jumped ahead. The Longhorns took the lead by halftime. USC regained control in the second half and was one play away from finishing off its three-peat. On fourth-and-2 at the Texas 45, with 2:13 remaining and Texas out of timeouts, the Trojans elected to go for a first down instead of punting to protect a 38-33 lead.
Bush, the Heisman winning back, was on the sideline. The Trojans loaded up the left side of the line and ran Lendale White off tackle. It was a play full of machismo (called by then-offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin). USC had run this play three times in crucial situations in this game and prevailed each time. It dared Texas to stop it.
The Longhorns did. White was stuffed a yard short and Young got the ball back. He methodically drove Texas downfield, scoring the game-winner on fourth-and-5 with 19 seconds left. Texas ended the Trojans' reign and won its first national title since 1970.
Final BCS Standings: 1. USC, 2. Texas, 3. Penn State, 4. Ohio State, 5. Oregon, 6. Notre Dame.
Alternative Methods
Using 1998-2003 (BCS I) Formula: 1. USC, 2. Texas, 3. Penn State, 4. Ohio State.
Likely four-team playoff: USC vs. Ohio State; Texas vs. Penn State.
The last spot would be up for grabs between two-loss Ohio State and Notre Dame. The Buckeyes' losses were to Penn State and Texas and shared the Big Ten title with Penn State whereas the Irish lost to USC and 5-6 Michigan State. OSU also had much better computer rankings than ND (4th vs. 10th). And in reality, these teams did meet in the Fiesta Bowl, with OSU winning 34-20.
Controversies
There was little regarding the BCS. The title game was only slightly marred by instant replay malfunction, which allowed a disputed Texas touchdown to stand in the second quarter. Young's knee was down on the play before he lateraled the ball to Selvin Young, who ran 12 yards for the score to put Texas ahead, 9-7. The play was not reviewed because the equipment wasn't working.
| Bowl | Score | Attendance | TV Rating |
| Rose Bowl* | #2 Texas 41, #1 USC 38 | 93,986 | 21.7 |
| Fiesta Bowl | #4 Ohio St. 34, #6 Notre Dame 20 | 76,196 | 12.9 |
| Orange Bowl | #3 Penn St. 26, #22 Florida St. 23 (3 OT) | 77,912 | 12.2 |
| Sugar Bowl | #11 West Virginia 38, #7 Georgia 35 | 74,458 | 9.0 |
BCS Formula Review: After the controversy of the previous year when Texas leapfrogged California for a Rose Bowl berth, the BCS made another tweak with the formula, out of necessity. A number of AP voters were besieged by angry fans who found fault with their ballots. As a result, the AP sent a cease-and-desist letter demanding that the AP poll be removed from the BCS formula.
The BCS hastily contracted Harris Interactive to furnish a replacement poll, which debuted in 2005. The poll featured over 100 voters who were former athletic directors, coaches and players, as well as members of the media. Unlike the AP poll or the coaches poll, the Harris Poll did not have a preseason poll, wasn't released until mid-season, and didn't have an end-of-season final poll.
With the installment of the Harris Interactive Poll as part of the standings, the BCS formula would remain unchanged until the very end. The final nine seasons of BCS's existence had the exact same formula, after undergoing six changes in its first seven seasons.
Final analysis: The USC-Texas game was easily the most thrilling, not to mention the most-watched BCS championship game (and college football game, of all time, with a record TV rating of 21.7), thanks to the star power of both teams.
The BCS deserved credit for making it happen. Under the previous bowl regime, USC would've played (and most likely, beaten) Penn State in the Rose Bowl whereas Texas would've faced (and also beaten) either one-loss Oregon or two-loss Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl. Because of their status as the two-time defending champion and had been top-ranked all season, the Trojans most likely would've been voted No. 1 in both polls while the Longhorns would've been relegated to No. 2.
The 2006 Rose Bowl also marked the end of the Phase I of the BCS bowl rotation. After two consecutive cycles of playing four BCS bowls with eight berths, the BCS, partly under pressure, would expand to a "double-host" setup following the 2005 season. An extra game would be added to allow more access for non-BCS teams and a championship game was added, to be played about a week after the traditional New Year's Day bowl games.
Monday, December 23, 2013
BCS Review Series: 2002, On-Field Dispute Mars Perfect Ending
Part 5 of a series: Over the next few weeks, I will be reviewing each of the 16 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. Here is a look back at who got lucky, who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear throughout December and January.
Part 1: 1998, A New Beginning for College Football
Part 2: 1999, FSU Ends Michael Vick's Quest for Perfection
Part 3: 2000, FSU-Miami Sows Seeds of Controversy
Part 4: 2001, Nebraska Fiasco Rocks College Football
---
After two years of turmoil, BCS got a big break in 2002 as two undefeated teams—the only ones—met in a memorable title game that wasn't decided until after two overtimes. This time, the controversy came only during the game.
But just like in 1999, while the BCS could pat itself on the back all it wants, the reality is that a caveman could've picked the Miami-Ohio State matchup—and he wouldn't even need the BCS standings to muddle his thoughts.
After Oklahoma was upset in the first week of November, it became clear that the title game would feature defending champion and No. 1-ranked Miami and second-ranked Ohio State. The Buckeyes had to survive a tight battle with arch rival Michigan, 14-9, while the 'Canes romped through the final weeks, bidding to become the first team in the BCS era to repeat as champions.
Ohio State, riding on the back of the criminally talented freshman Maurice Clarett, would spoil Miami's quest, but it needed two big breaks to do it. First, Hurricanes running back Willis McGahee tore his ACL in the third quarter, slowing down the Miami offensive powerhouse. Then, just as the 'Canes seemingly clinched victory on the game's final play, a pass interference (wait, or was it defensive holding?) flag came out five seconds later that gave the Buckeyes new life.
Was that a good call? You decide.
(Warning: The neutrality of the commentary is in question)
But the most significant development of this season went mostly unnoticed. After losing two of its first five games, USC blew through the rest of the Pac-10 and routed Iowa in the Orange Bowl, led by Heisman-winning quarterback Carson Palmer. The Trojans would re-enter college football's top echelon and become the most BCS-relevant juggernaut for the rest of the decade.
Complete Final BCS Standings
Alternative Methods
Using post-2003 formula: 1. Miami, 2. Ohio State.
Using 1998-2000 formula: 1. Miami, 2. Ohio State.
Likely four-team playoff: Miami vs. USC; Ohio State vs. Georgia.
Both USC and Iowa were conference co-champions, but since the Trojans played a tougher schedule and Big Ten co-champion Ohio State were already in the field, Iowa gets squeezed out. It would've been an easy decision with the benefit of hindsight.
Controversies
The Rose Bowl in Miami: The real Rose Bowl lost out on the traditional Big Ten-Pac-10 matchup and was none too pleased about it. Adding insult to more insult, the Orange Bowl invoked a little-known BCS backroom rule to secure a USC-Iowa matchup that announced the arrival of the Trojan Dynasty.
Here's how it happened:
After the Fiesta Bowl took the top two teams for the national title game, the Orange Bowl snagged No. 5 Iowa, the Big Ten runner-up. At this point, the bowls could not protect their affiliated conference teams so the Rose Bowl, already fuming at losing Iowa, took Big 12 champion Oklahoma to face Pac-10 co-champ Washington State (which beat USC head-to-head).
The Sugar Bowl was next, ready to invite No. 4 USC to play No. 3 Georgia. But the Orange Bowl took advantage of an exception clause that allowed a higher-paying bowl to jump another once every four years and swiped the Trojans away. The Sugar Bowl was stuck with SEC champion Georgia and ACC winner No. 14 Florida State.
2002 BCS Bowl Matchups
BCS formula review: Computer rankings by Herman Matthews and Dave Rothman were dropped and the New York Times added back in, making it a total of seven. The lowest ranking was discarded and the remaining six averaged.
All rankings now purged the margin-of-victory component, as Jeff Sagarin introduced a new ELO-CHESS rating that removed margin of victory, reluctantly—in his words: "In ELO-CHESS, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence, which makes it very 'politically correct'."
Final analysis: The BCS celebrated its most successful season yet, and decided to take the rest of the year off to congratulate itself. The Miami-Ohio State game was a boon to the BCS and seemingly validated its existence—without the participation of the Big Ten, Pac-10 and the Rose Bowl, this matchup wouldn't have happened in the pre-BCS era. But the next two years would bring nothing but trouble for the system, especially 2003, when the mother of all controversies would force the BCS to reinvent itself.
Part 1: 1998, A New Beginning for College Football
Part 2: 1999, FSU Ends Michael Vick's Quest for Perfection
Part 3: 2000, FSU-Miami Sows Seeds of Controversy
Part 4: 2001, Nebraska Fiasco Rocks College Football
---
After two years of turmoil, BCS got a big break in 2002 as two undefeated teams—the only ones—met in a memorable title game that wasn't decided until after two overtimes. This time, the controversy came only during the game.
But just like in 1999, while the BCS could pat itself on the back all it wants, the reality is that a caveman could've picked the Miami-Ohio State matchup—and he wouldn't even need the BCS standings to muddle his thoughts.
After Oklahoma was upset in the first week of November, it became clear that the title game would feature defending champion and No. 1-ranked Miami and second-ranked Ohio State. The Buckeyes had to survive a tight battle with arch rival Michigan, 14-9, while the 'Canes romped through the final weeks, bidding to become the first team in the BCS era to repeat as champions.
Ohio State, riding on the back of the criminally talented freshman Maurice Clarett, would spoil Miami's quest, but it needed two big breaks to do it. First, Hurricanes running back Willis McGahee tore his ACL in the third quarter, slowing down the Miami offensive powerhouse. Then, just as the 'Canes seemingly clinched victory on the game's final play, a pass interference (wait, or was it defensive holding?) flag came out five seconds later that gave the Buckeyes new life.
Was that a good call? You decide.
(Warning: The neutrality of the commentary is in question)
But the most significant development of this season went mostly unnoticed. After losing two of its first five games, USC blew through the rest of the Pac-10 and routed Iowa in the Orange Bowl, led by Heisman-winning quarterback Carson Palmer. The Trojans would re-enter college football's top echelon and become the most BCS-relevant juggernaut for the rest of the decade.
Complete Final BCS Standings
| Rank | Team | Poll Avg. | Computer | SoS | Loss | Q-W | BCS |
| 1 | Miami | 1 | 1.17 | 19 | 0 | - | 2.93 |
| 2 | Ohio St. | 2 | 1.67 | 20 | 0 | -0.5 | 3.97 |
| 3 | Georgia | 4 | 3.17 | 5 | 1 | - | 8.37 |
| 4 | USC | 5 | 3.67 | 1 | 2 | -0.2 | 10.51 |
| 5 | Iowa | 3 | 4.83 | 49 | 1 | - | 10.79 |
Alternative Methods
Using post-2003 formula: 1. Miami, 2. Ohio State.
Using 1998-2000 formula: 1. Miami, 2. Ohio State.
Likely four-team playoff: Miami vs. USC; Ohio State vs. Georgia.
Both USC and Iowa were conference co-champions, but since the Trojans played a tougher schedule and Big Ten co-champion Ohio State were already in the field, Iowa gets squeezed out. It would've been an easy decision with the benefit of hindsight.
Controversies
The Rose Bowl in Miami: The real Rose Bowl lost out on the traditional Big Ten-Pac-10 matchup and was none too pleased about it. Adding insult to more insult, the Orange Bowl invoked a little-known BCS backroom rule to secure a USC-Iowa matchup that announced the arrival of the Trojan Dynasty.
Here's how it happened:
After the Fiesta Bowl took the top two teams for the national title game, the Orange Bowl snagged No. 5 Iowa, the Big Ten runner-up. At this point, the bowls could not protect their affiliated conference teams so the Rose Bowl, already fuming at losing Iowa, took Big 12 champion Oklahoma to face Pac-10 co-champ Washington State (which beat USC head-to-head).
The Sugar Bowl was next, ready to invite No. 4 USC to play No. 3 Georgia. But the Orange Bowl took advantage of an exception clause that allowed a higher-paying bowl to jump another once every four years and swiped the Trojans away. The Sugar Bowl was stuck with SEC champion Georgia and ACC winner No. 14 Florida State.
2002 BCS Bowl Matchups
| Bowl | Score | Attendance | TV Rating |
| Fiesta Bowl* | #2 Ohio St. 31, #1 Miami 24 (2 OT) | 77,502 | 17.2 |
| Rose Bowl | #7 Oklahoma 34, #6 Washington St. 14 | 86,848 | 11.3 |
| Orange Bowl | #4 USC 38, #5 Iowa 17 | 75,971 | 9.7 |
| Sugar Bowl | #3 Georgia 26, #14 Florida St. 13 | 74,269 | 9.2 |
BCS formula review: Computer rankings by Herman Matthews and Dave Rothman were dropped and the New York Times added back in, making it a total of seven. The lowest ranking was discarded and the remaining six averaged.
All rankings now purged the margin-of-victory component, as Jeff Sagarin introduced a new ELO-CHESS rating that removed margin of victory, reluctantly—in his words: "In ELO-CHESS, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence, which makes it very 'politically correct'."
Final analysis: The BCS celebrated its most successful season yet, and decided to take the rest of the year off to congratulate itself. The Miami-Ohio State game was a boon to the BCS and seemingly validated its existence—without the participation of the Big Ten, Pac-10 and the Rose Bowl, this matchup wouldn't have happened in the pre-BCS era. But the next two years would bring nothing but trouble for the system, especially 2003, when the mother of all controversies would force the BCS to reinvent itself.
Thursday, December 5, 2013
Win or Lose, Michigan State Is Rose Bowl Bound?
It's Pasadena or ... Pasadena?
Michigan State is potentially in a win-win situation Saturday night in the Big Ten Championship Game against Ohio State. Win, the Spartans claim the conference title and earn a trip to the Rose Bowl. Lose, the Spartans send the Buckeyes to the BCS title game (in Pasadena) and get to replace them as the Big Ten representative ... in the Rose Bowl.
About the only thing that can foul up Michigan State's first trip to Pasadena in a quarter century is the provision that a team must finish in the top 14 in the final BCS standings to be eligible for an at-large BCS bowl berth. Currently ranked 10th in the BCS standings, there is a chance the Spartans can fall out of the top 14 with a loss, forcing to Rose Bowl to pick someone else.
How likely are the Spartans to fall out of the top 14 if they lose to Ohio State? Their fate might hinge on a single other game—Bedlam.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Michigan State is potentially in a win-win situation Saturday night in the Big Ten Championship Game against Ohio State. Win, the Spartans claim the conference title and earn a trip to the Rose Bowl. Lose, the Spartans send the Buckeyes to the BCS title game (in Pasadena) and get to replace them as the Big Ten representative ... in the Rose Bowl.
About the only thing that can foul up Michigan State's first trip to Pasadena in a quarter century is the provision that a team must finish in the top 14 in the final BCS standings to be eligible for an at-large BCS bowl berth. Currently ranked 10th in the BCS standings, there is a chance the Spartans can fall out of the top 14 with a loss, forcing to Rose Bowl to pick someone else.
How likely are the Spartans to fall out of the top 14 if they lose to Ohio State? Their fate might hinge on a single other game—Bedlam.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Monday, November 12, 2012
Fiesta and Rose Fighting Over Irish?
Notre Dame's brand name might not be enough to get it into the national championship game (you heard that right, Lou Holtz), but it still has plenty pull when it come time for BCS bowls to make their picks.
Despite appearances - that No. 3 Notre Dame is closer to No. 2 Oregon than Oregon is to No. 1 Kansas State in the latest BCS standings - there is no chance for the Irish to catch either team without needing a loss from them. The Irish have maxed out their computer scores at .990 and are unlikely to get any more support in the polls unless they can rout USC at the Coliseum in two weeks.
But there will be a big consolation prize for Notre Dame, and that'll depend on who finishes first and second in the final BCS standings. The Fiesta Bowl and Rose Bowl are both interested in the Irish. For the Fiesta, Notre Dame was instrumental in helping to build the bowl's reputation when it beat West Virginia to win the the school's last national championship in 1988. For the Irish, they'd get a chance to erase some awful memories as they have dropped their last three bowl games in the desert.
The Rose Bowl ideally would like to keep its traditional Big Ten-Pac 12 matchup, but it might not have the option. In fact, if the Fiesta gets to pick first and selects Notre Dame, the Rose might have to opt for Oklahoma because of a lack of BCS eligible Pac-12 teams. After Oregon, currently only Stanford is in the BCS top 14. But the Cardinal still have to play the Ducks, as does No. 16 Oregon State and the winner of the No. 17 UCLA-No. 18 USC game. If Oregon does run the table and go to the title game, none of those teams will be in the top 14.
After having had TCU, Texas and Oklahoma in Pasadena in the past decade as per the auspices of the BCS, the Rose Bowl is intrigued by having Notre Dame back for the first time since the days of Knute Rockne. The Irish defeated Stanford 27-10 in the 1925 game. It was Notre Dame's first bowl appearance and its only one until 1970 as the school self-imposed a bowl ban for nearly half a century.
BCS Bowl Projections
BCS national championship - Kansas State vs. Oregon
Fiesta Bowl - Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M
Rose Bowl - Oklahoma vs. Nebraska
Sugar Bowl - Alabama vs. Clemson
Orange Bowl - Florida State vs. Louisville
Despite appearances - that No. 3 Notre Dame is closer to No. 2 Oregon than Oregon is to No. 1 Kansas State in the latest BCS standings - there is no chance for the Irish to catch either team without needing a loss from them. The Irish have maxed out their computer scores at .990 and are unlikely to get any more support in the polls unless they can rout USC at the Coliseum in two weeks.
But there will be a big consolation prize for Notre Dame, and that'll depend on who finishes first and second in the final BCS standings. The Fiesta Bowl and Rose Bowl are both interested in the Irish. For the Fiesta, Notre Dame was instrumental in helping to build the bowl's reputation when it beat West Virginia to win the the school's last national championship in 1988. For the Irish, they'd get a chance to erase some awful memories as they have dropped their last three bowl games in the desert.
The Rose Bowl ideally would like to keep its traditional Big Ten-Pac 12 matchup, but it might not have the option. In fact, if the Fiesta gets to pick first and selects Notre Dame, the Rose might have to opt for Oklahoma because of a lack of BCS eligible Pac-12 teams. After Oregon, currently only Stanford is in the BCS top 14. But the Cardinal still have to play the Ducks, as does No. 16 Oregon State and the winner of the No. 17 UCLA-No. 18 USC game. If Oregon does run the table and go to the title game, none of those teams will be in the top 14.
After having had TCU, Texas and Oklahoma in Pasadena in the past decade as per the auspices of the BCS, the Rose Bowl is intrigued by having Notre Dame back for the first time since the days of Knute Rockne. The Irish defeated Stanford 27-10 in the 1925 game. It was Notre Dame's first bowl appearance and its only one until 1970 as the school self-imposed a bowl ban for nearly half a century.
BCS Bowl Projections
BCS national championship - Kansas State vs. Oregon
Fiesta Bowl - Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M
Rose Bowl - Oklahoma vs. Nebraska
Sugar Bowl - Alabama vs. Clemson
Orange Bowl - Florida State vs. Louisville
Monday, November 5, 2012
Who's Going to Get BCS's Millions?
Let's forget the Oregon-vs.-Kansas State narrative for a moment because there will be plenty of time to dissect that to pieces in the coming weeks. Nothing has really changed since our projections yesterday pretty much covered all the bases.
But besides the coveted two spots for the BCS championship game, there are four other BCS bowls with lucrative payouts. Money, you see, is the lifeblood of college sports (please take a moment to purge all the NCAA "student-athlete" propaganda garbage out of your mind). And with the five BCS games, dollar amounts equaling GDPs of small nations (OK, like Nauru and Tuvalu, not Belgium) will be doled out to various institutions of higher learning.
And after allowing the have-nots to crash the BCS party for five consecutive seasons from 2006 to 2010, this looks to be the second consecutive season where the automatic-qualifying conferences will hoard nearly all the cash. With San Diego State's upset victory at Boise State late Saturday, it appears that no non-AQ team will meet the stiff qualifying threshold currently set at No. 12. Louisiana Tech, the highest-ranked non-AQ team, is No. 20 in the latest BCS standings.
That leaves the six BCS conferences and Notre Dame to divvy up the 10 BCS bowl slots. And here we have a breakdown of the teams most likely to visit a BCS bowl near you, in order of likelihood:
1. Alabama - After getting by LSU, the Crimson Tide will be assured of their fourth BCS bowl berth in five years, even if they lose the SEC championship game against likely foe Georgia. An SEC title game win sends Alabama to the BCS championship game and a loss sends it to the Fiesta Bowl.
2. Notre Dame - The Irish are assured of a BCS bowl berth if they finish in the top eight of the final BCS standings. And even with a loss to USC, they will be picked by a BCS bowl so long as they're in the top 14 of the final standings. If Oregon ends up in the BCS title game, look for Notre Dame to make its second Rose Bowl appearance after it last played in the 1925 game under Knute Rockne.
3. Kansas State - By winning two of its remaining three games, the Wildcats will clinch the Big 12 title and at worst a Fiesta Bowl berth. About the only way K-State would be shut out of its second BCS bowl appearance is if it goes 0-3 in its final three games ... not gonna happen.
4. Oregon - The Ducks are assured of a Rose Bowl berth if it wins the Pac-12 title, but probably will get a Fiesta Bowl berth if they lose their first game in the Pac-12 championship game. Unless it stumbles badly in the closing weeks, Oregon will be playing in its fourth straight BCS bowl game.
5. Florida State - There is no path for the Seminoles to make it to the BCS title game as a one-loss team, and they haven't even clinched their division as Clemson is still hot on their heels. FSU will be the ACC's lone representative in the Orange Bowl if it wins the conference title game. If it loses, it might be shut out.
6/A. Florida - The Gators basically need Georgia to lose to either Auburn or Alabama to have a shot at their first BCS game since the Urban Meyer era. A Bulldogs upset win over the Tide in the SEC title game will bar Florida's path to a BCS bowl bid, but otherwise its prospects are very good.
6/B. Georgia - The Bulldogs can use a Florida State win over Florida to lock up a BCS bowl berth. If that happens, Georgia probably will earn a Sugar Bowl bid even with a loss to Alabama in the SEC championship game since both UGA and UF will have two losses and the Bulldogs did emerge victorious in the Cocktail Party.
7. Oklahoma - The Sooners probably won't have a shot to win the Big 12, but they'll be assured of a BCS bowl berth if they win their final four games. If K-State gets to the BCS title game, Oklahoma most likely will land in Miami as the Fiesta Bowl will opt for Notre Dame and not a rematch with OU.
8. Oregon State - The Beavers might be the Pac-12's only hope of landing a second BCS bowl berth if it can beat Stanford and lose only to the Ducks to finish the season 10-2. Oregon State might play in its first BCS game since the 2001 Fiesta Bowl or, in the event the Rose Bowl passes up on Notre Dame to replace Oregon (say, to avoid a rematch with Michigan), its first appearance in the Granddaddy since the 1965 game.
9. Clemson - The Tigers are absolutely a last-ditch fallback choice in the event of too many SEC teams clogging up the standings and leaving too few qualifying teams in the top 14. The BCS didn't exactly have a great experience with its first multiple ACC selections last season when Clemson was inhumanely destroyed by West Virginia while Virginia Tech lost to Michigan in the overrated bowl.
10. Texas - The Longhorns have quietly returned to the conversation after getting annihilated by Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout. If they can somehow get through the next two games and then upset K-State at home in the season finale, they might steal a BCS bid if OU gets tagged for a third loss.
Big East champion - This is a one-bid conference no matter who wins it.
Big Ten champion - See above. It's a pretty stunning fall for a conference that's nabbed two BCS bowl berths every year since the format expanded to include five games in 2006.
First BCS bowl predictions:
BCS championship - Alabama vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl - Florida vs. Oklahoma
Rose Bowl - Notre Dame vs. Nebraska
Fiesta Bowl - Kansas State vs. Oregon State
Orange Bowl - Florida State vs. Louisville
(FULL ARTICLE @ SB NATION)
But besides the coveted two spots for the BCS championship game, there are four other BCS bowls with lucrative payouts. Money, you see, is the lifeblood of college sports (please take a moment to purge all the NCAA "student-athlete" propaganda garbage out of your mind). And with the five BCS games, dollar amounts equaling GDPs of small nations (OK, like Nauru and Tuvalu, not Belgium) will be doled out to various institutions of higher learning.
And after allowing the have-nots to crash the BCS party for five consecutive seasons from 2006 to 2010, this looks to be the second consecutive season where the automatic-qualifying conferences will hoard nearly all the cash. With San Diego State's upset victory at Boise State late Saturday, it appears that no non-AQ team will meet the stiff qualifying threshold currently set at No. 12. Louisiana Tech, the highest-ranked non-AQ team, is No. 20 in the latest BCS standings.
That leaves the six BCS conferences and Notre Dame to divvy up the 10 BCS bowl slots. And here we have a breakdown of the teams most likely to visit a BCS bowl near you, in order of likelihood:
1. Alabama - After getting by LSU, the Crimson Tide will be assured of their fourth BCS bowl berth in five years, even if they lose the SEC championship game against likely foe Georgia. An SEC title game win sends Alabama to the BCS championship game and a loss sends it to the Fiesta Bowl.
2. Notre Dame - The Irish are assured of a BCS bowl berth if they finish in the top eight of the final BCS standings. And even with a loss to USC, they will be picked by a BCS bowl so long as they're in the top 14 of the final standings. If Oregon ends up in the BCS title game, look for Notre Dame to make its second Rose Bowl appearance after it last played in the 1925 game under Knute Rockne.
3. Kansas State - By winning two of its remaining three games, the Wildcats will clinch the Big 12 title and at worst a Fiesta Bowl berth. About the only way K-State would be shut out of its second BCS bowl appearance is if it goes 0-3 in its final three games ... not gonna happen.
4. Oregon - The Ducks are assured of a Rose Bowl berth if it wins the Pac-12 title, but probably will get a Fiesta Bowl berth if they lose their first game in the Pac-12 championship game. Unless it stumbles badly in the closing weeks, Oregon will be playing in its fourth straight BCS bowl game.
5. Florida State - There is no path for the Seminoles to make it to the BCS title game as a one-loss team, and they haven't even clinched their division as Clemson is still hot on their heels. FSU will be the ACC's lone representative in the Orange Bowl if it wins the conference title game. If it loses, it might be shut out.
6/A. Florida - The Gators basically need Georgia to lose to either Auburn or Alabama to have a shot at their first BCS game since the Urban Meyer era. A Bulldogs upset win over the Tide in the SEC title game will bar Florida's path to a BCS bowl bid, but otherwise its prospects are very good.
6/B. Georgia - The Bulldogs can use a Florida State win over Florida to lock up a BCS bowl berth. If that happens, Georgia probably will earn a Sugar Bowl bid even with a loss to Alabama in the SEC championship game since both UGA and UF will have two losses and the Bulldogs did emerge victorious in the Cocktail Party.
7. Oklahoma - The Sooners probably won't have a shot to win the Big 12, but they'll be assured of a BCS bowl berth if they win their final four games. If K-State gets to the BCS title game, Oklahoma most likely will land in Miami as the Fiesta Bowl will opt for Notre Dame and not a rematch with OU.
8. Oregon State - The Beavers might be the Pac-12's only hope of landing a second BCS bowl berth if it can beat Stanford and lose only to the Ducks to finish the season 10-2. Oregon State might play in its first BCS game since the 2001 Fiesta Bowl or, in the event the Rose Bowl passes up on Notre Dame to replace Oregon (say, to avoid a rematch with Michigan), its first appearance in the Granddaddy since the 1965 game.
9. Clemson - The Tigers are absolutely a last-ditch fallback choice in the event of too many SEC teams clogging up the standings and leaving too few qualifying teams in the top 14. The BCS didn't exactly have a great experience with its first multiple ACC selections last season when Clemson was inhumanely destroyed by West Virginia while Virginia Tech lost to Michigan in the overrated bowl.
10. Texas - The Longhorns have quietly returned to the conversation after getting annihilated by Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout. If they can somehow get through the next two games and then upset K-State at home in the season finale, they might steal a BCS bid if OU gets tagged for a third loss.
Big East champion - This is a one-bid conference no matter who wins it.
Big Ten champion - See above. It's a pretty stunning fall for a conference that's nabbed two BCS bowl berths every year since the format expanded to include five games in 2006.
First BCS bowl predictions:
BCS championship - Alabama vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl - Florida vs. Oklahoma
Rose Bowl - Notre Dame vs. Nebraska
Fiesta Bowl - Kansas State vs. Oregon State
Orange Bowl - Florida State vs. Louisville
(FULL ARTICLE @ SB NATION)
Monday, October 10, 2011
Roses, But No Crystal Ball, for Big Ten and Pac-12
The first official BCS Standings of the 2011 season is due out next Sunday. But with both the Coaches Poll and Harris Poll, plus five of the six computer data available, we already have a pretty good picture (about 94 percent accurate) on what the BCS landscape will be like.
It will come up Roses for the Big Ten and Pac-12 winner. As in, Pasadena, instead of the BCS title game.
The BCS final battles will be settled when LSU goes to Alabama on Nov. 5 and, if applicable, when Oklahoma visits Stillwater for Bedlam on Dec. 3. Almost no other games will matter, and that includes the inaugural Big Ten and Pac-12 championships.
While each league still has an unbeaten team that has a legitimate shot at going undefeated (Wisconsin and Stanford), they'll have neither the poll support nor the computer points to overtake the survivors of the two aforementioned showdowns.
The Badgers are the odds-on favorite to win the Leaders Division of the new Big Ten, but their best-case scenario will be the Rose Bowl at this point. The Badgers have only themselves to blame for their cupcake-filled nonconference schedule that dragged down their computer rankings. In three of the five computer ratings available, Wisconsin is ranked in the mid-teens.
Stanford is likewise done in by its schedule, but its main problem will be the polls. The Cardinal have yet to play a ranked team and their only chance to demonstrate their worth for the voters will be their Nov. 12 showdown against Oregon. USC and Notre Dame remain on Stanford's schedule, but they may be of only limited utility to Andrew Luck & Co.
At the moment, it appears the winner of the LSU-Alabama game will be a lock to go unbeaten, as the winner of the weak SEC East won't be able to put up much resistance in the conference championship game. Oklahoma may be a bit more vulnerable, as it has a trip to Oklahoma State and games at Manhattan and Waco still remaining. But at least the Sooners don't need to worry about a potential trap in the now-defunct Big 12 title game.
Now, should OU falter, who's more likely to step in?
Firmly in the on-deck circle is Boise State. The Broncos already had its signature win in their season opener against Georgia, and it may be consigned to a fate of not having faced a single ranked opponent. They will be heavily-favored to run the table, but the Broncos will have no shot at the BCS title game unless OU or the SEC winner loses a game.
If the Broncos should lose a shocker (very unlikely) or slump in the BCS standings (more plausible), then here's the surprise. The winner of the ACC faceoff between Clemson and Georgia Tech on Oct. 29 in Atlanta may be a darkhorse for the BCS title game should the SEC or Big 12 leaders falter. Both teams have relatively healthy computer rankings and still have decent opponents left on the schedule to boost their profile.
There are four other unbeaten teams left (Michigan, Illinois, Kansas State, Houston), but none of them is a serious threat to remain unbeaten the rest of the season. So one week before we're even into the official BCS standings, the pecking order is pretty much set.
The Rose Bowl hates the idea of being thought of as a consolation prizes, but that's what it gets from its Faustian bargain with the BCS.
Monday, November 29, 2010
Does Auburn Have a Bye on Saturday?
Should Gene Chizik hold out Cam Newton and most of his starters on Saturday, not because of eligibility issues, but to rest them for the BCS title game?
Absurd thought, right? But not as far fetched as you think. There's a chance that Auburn can lose to South Carolina in the SEC championship game and still get in the BCS title game.
It's happened before, twice, when a team that lost its final game and still played for the BCS title: Nebraska in 2001 and Oklahoma in 2003. But it's not happened since '03 because of the most recent change in the BCS formula, which now grants two-thirds of its weight toward human polls.
So if Auburn loses on Saturday, the 173 voters in the coaches and Harris polls will be the judges in this beauty pageant that, if you think about it, is pretty much like American Idol or Dancing with the Stars.
This is how it works. Even with a loss, Auburn is expected to be No. 1 in at least 3 computers. Its final computer score will be No. 1, ahead of both Oregon and TCU, even with a loss. At worst, Auburn will have a .980 computer score.
Now, if TCU wants to get past Auburn, it had better hope that every voter has the Horned Frogs at no worse than No. 2. If that's the case, fine, TCU gets to play Oregon. If enough voters waffle on who should be No. 2 and split them up between TCU and Auburn, then TCU might not get that date with the Ducks.
There is already plenty of chatter about TCU's worthiness for the BCS title game, a battle joined by Rodney Gilmore during ESPN's show on Sunday, during which he brazenly discredited almost everything the Horned Frogs did this season. There is little doubt that such sentiment is shared by some of those voters, who will look for every excuse to prevent TCU from becoming the first non-AQ team to play for the BCS title.
That fear is clearly reflected in the school's rushed decision today to basically destroy all of its athletic programs by joining the Big East, in a vain quest to be part of the BCS crowd. Case-in-point: TCU has a powerhouse baseball program that soon must play UConn, Rutgers and Georgetown and nowhere near Texas, that's really going to help its recruiting tremendously.
But that's a different post for a different day. For now, here are the scenarios for BCS games:
Oregon and Auburn both win:
BCS Championship - Oregon vs. Auburn
Rose Bowl - TCU vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl - Arkansas vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl - ACC Champ vs. Big East Champ
Fiesta Bowl - Big 12 Champ vs. Stanford
Oregon loses, Auburn wins or loses:
BCS Championship - Auburn vs. TCU
Rose Bowl - Oregon vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl - Arkansas or South Carolina vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl - ACC Champ vs. Big East Champ
Fiesta Bowl - Big 12 Champ vs. Stanford
Oregon wins, Auburn loses:
(if 85% or more voters put Auburn third or worse)
BCS Championship - Oregon vs. TCU
Rose Bowl - Stanford vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl - South Carolina vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl - ACC Champ vs. Auburn
Fiesta Bowl - Big 12 Champ vs. Big East Champ
(if 15% or more voters put Auburn third or better)
BCS Championship - Oregon vs. Auburn
Rose Bowl - TCU vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl - South Carolina vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl - ACC Champ vs. Big East Champ
Fiesta Bowl - Big 12 Champ vs. Stanford
Of course, Chizik would do no such thing as holding out his best players, but the fact remains that as long as the Tigers don't get blown out of the building, they have a real shot to play for the BCS title even if they lose. No team other than the top three in the BCS standings has a prayer of getting into the title game no matter what happens Saturday, as Oregon will not be dropped behind Stanford after having beaten the Cardinal by 21 points earlier in the season.
As for the Rose Bowl, since I am the man who made the famous flub, of course I should predict, with utter confidence, that Wisconsin is in. No matter what happens this weekend, Badger fans, you can book your tickets to Pasadena now. The Guru says so. (And as a former resident of Pasadena, I may even offer you some tips.)
Absurd thought, right? But not as far fetched as you think. There's a chance that Auburn can lose to South Carolina in the SEC championship game and still get in the BCS title game.
It's happened before, twice, when a team that lost its final game and still played for the BCS title: Nebraska in 2001 and Oklahoma in 2003. But it's not happened since '03 because of the most recent change in the BCS formula, which now grants two-thirds of its weight toward human polls.
So if Auburn loses on Saturday, the 173 voters in the coaches and Harris polls will be the judges in this beauty pageant that, if you think about it, is pretty much like American Idol or Dancing with the Stars.
This is how it works. Even with a loss, Auburn is expected to be No. 1 in at least 3 computers. Its final computer score will be No. 1, ahead of both Oregon and TCU, even with a loss. At worst, Auburn will have a .980 computer score.
Now, if TCU wants to get past Auburn, it had better hope that every voter has the Horned Frogs at no worse than No. 2. If that's the case, fine, TCU gets to play Oregon. If enough voters waffle on who should be No. 2 and split them up between TCU and Auburn, then TCU might not get that date with the Ducks.
There is already plenty of chatter about TCU's worthiness for the BCS title game, a battle joined by Rodney Gilmore during ESPN's show on Sunday, during which he brazenly discredited almost everything the Horned Frogs did this season. There is little doubt that such sentiment is shared by some of those voters, who will look for every excuse to prevent TCU from becoming the first non-AQ team to play for the BCS title.
That fear is clearly reflected in the school's rushed decision today to basically destroy all of its athletic programs by joining the Big East, in a vain quest to be part of the BCS crowd. Case-in-point: TCU has a powerhouse baseball program that soon must play UConn, Rutgers and Georgetown and nowhere near Texas, that's really going to help its recruiting tremendously.
But that's a different post for a different day. For now, here are the scenarios for BCS games:
Oregon and Auburn both win:
BCS Championship - Oregon vs. Auburn
Rose Bowl - TCU vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl - Arkansas vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl - ACC Champ vs. Big East Champ
Fiesta Bowl - Big 12 Champ vs. Stanford
Oregon loses, Auburn wins or loses:
BCS Championship - Auburn vs. TCU
Rose Bowl - Oregon vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl - Arkansas or South Carolina vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl - ACC Champ vs. Big East Champ
Fiesta Bowl - Big 12 Champ vs. Stanford
Oregon wins, Auburn loses:
(if 85% or more voters put Auburn third or worse)
BCS Championship - Oregon vs. TCU
Rose Bowl - Stanford vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl - South Carolina vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl - ACC Champ vs. Auburn
Fiesta Bowl - Big 12 Champ vs. Big East Champ
(if 15% or more voters put Auburn third or better)
BCS Championship - Oregon vs. Auburn
Rose Bowl - TCU vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl - South Carolina vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl - ACC Champ vs. Big East Champ
Fiesta Bowl - Big 12 Champ vs. Stanford
Of course, Chizik would do no such thing as holding out his best players, but the fact remains that as long as the Tigers don't get blown out of the building, they have a real shot to play for the BCS title even if they lose. No team other than the top three in the BCS standings has a prayer of getting into the title game no matter what happens Saturday, as Oregon will not be dropped behind Stanford after having beaten the Cardinal by 21 points earlier in the season.
As for the Rose Bowl, since I am the man who made the famous flub, of course I should predict, with utter confidence, that Wisconsin is in. No matter what happens this weekend, Badger fans, you can book your tickets to Pasadena now. The Guru says so. (And as a former resident of Pasadena, I may even offer you some tips.)
Sunday, November 28, 2010
How the Guru Whiffed on Bucky
So I blew it. In my five years of being the BCS Guru, this was the worst flub I've ever had. Because one of the mistakes is so egregious, I owe you folks an explanation.
The first mistake was fairly minor, that Auburn went ahead of Oregon by .0002. I didn't foresee the Tigers gaining that much ground in the polls after a game that they were truly lucky to win (Alabama really should've had a 35-0 lead and put the game to bed in the second quarter). I knew Auburn would be No. 1 in all the computers, so as soon as both polls came out, I knew the exact margin and Tweeted it as much.
Now, the serious mistake was having Ohio State ahead of Wisconsin in the original projection. That of course goes beyond flip-flopping teams in the 5 and 6 spots because of what's at stake - a Rose Bowl berth.
First, there's the obvious question of whether this was a publicity stunt. Fair question. If it were, then that means I have no integrity and was going for the cheap thrill of getting undue attention. That's absolutely not the case. I've been toiling at this for too long and built up too much goodwill and trust than to risk it for some one-night stand.
Then it becomes a question of competence. Having your credibility in doubt isn't all that much better than having your integrity savaged. When no WMD was found in Iraq, President Bush was called either a liar or a dunce by his critics. Same here, but of course with much less at stake.
The erroneous projection happened because of a miscalculation of the polls and a simple data entry error. If only one of the two occurred, it would not have happened. That the fact both of them happened on this one projection (on Ohio State) made it a perfect storm.
First, the poll miscalculation. The polls are always harder to project than the computers because it involves psychology. You have to form an educated evaluation on the behavior of the voters. That's much more difficult than analyzing the computers, which follows a certain formula and ironclad logic. I had believed that by virtue of LSU's loss to Arkansas, thus removing it as a buffer between Ohio State and Wisconsin, the Buckeyes would gain significant ground in the polls.
That didn't happen in the margins I had forecast. Wisconsin lost only 26 points in the coaches poll and a completely unforeseen 24 points in the Harris poll, out of 114 voters. I had projected the Buckeyes to pick up about 100 points in the Harris poll with LSU gone, but that simply didn't happen.
Now you must wonder, given that I had to know Wisconsin would stay ahead of Ohio State in the two polls, did I completely screw up on the computers?
The truth is, I didn't. That's why this was such a mind-numbing debacle.
I simply transposed two projections. on Massey and Sagarin, I assigned the values of 20 (for No. 6) to OSU instead of OU on my spreadsheet, and 10 (No. 16) for OSU to OU.
By making these mistakes, Ohio State's computer numbers were inflated to .790 instead of .680 (OSU's actual BCS computer score was .660) and Oklahoma's was deflated from .780 to .640 (OU actual: .760). This explains why OU was also initially projected to be a spot lower (No. 10) than it ended up (No. 9).
I don't expect everyone who reads this blog to get all this - and you shouldn't have to. It was incumbent on me to check and double-check my own data before publishing the projections. Perhaps I was in too much of a rush to get the projections out (this has become a bad habit since I moved back to the West Coast), or maybe because I did so well the last two weeks (1-10 in exact order two weeks ago and 1-13 last week) that a little hubris got the better of meticulousness.
Whatever, it was my mistake and I own it. The only thing to do is to acknowledge it and make sure it won't happen again. I still maintain that my record speaks for itself over the years, against Jerry Palm, Brad Edwards, anybody. I have a report card dating from 2006 to prove it.
And finally, I don't mind the criticism and even the hate mail. I deserve it, and I won't erase any of it to cover my own ass. You can't make me feel any worse than I already do.
The first mistake was fairly minor, that Auburn went ahead of Oregon by .0002. I didn't foresee the Tigers gaining that much ground in the polls after a game that they were truly lucky to win (Alabama really should've had a 35-0 lead and put the game to bed in the second quarter). I knew Auburn would be No. 1 in all the computers, so as soon as both polls came out, I knew the exact margin and Tweeted it as much.
Now, the serious mistake was having Ohio State ahead of Wisconsin in the original projection. That of course goes beyond flip-flopping teams in the 5 and 6 spots because of what's at stake - a Rose Bowl berth.
First, there's the obvious question of whether this was a publicity stunt. Fair question. If it were, then that means I have no integrity and was going for the cheap thrill of getting undue attention. That's absolutely not the case. I've been toiling at this for too long and built up too much goodwill and trust than to risk it for some one-night stand.
Then it becomes a question of competence. Having your credibility in doubt isn't all that much better than having your integrity savaged. When no WMD was found in Iraq, President Bush was called either a liar or a dunce by his critics. Same here, but of course with much less at stake.
The erroneous projection happened because of a miscalculation of the polls and a simple data entry error. If only one of the two occurred, it would not have happened. That the fact both of them happened on this one projection (on Ohio State) made it a perfect storm.
First, the poll miscalculation. The polls are always harder to project than the computers because it involves psychology. You have to form an educated evaluation on the behavior of the voters. That's much more difficult than analyzing the computers, which follows a certain formula and ironclad logic. I had believed that by virtue of LSU's loss to Arkansas, thus removing it as a buffer between Ohio State and Wisconsin, the Buckeyes would gain significant ground in the polls.
That didn't happen in the margins I had forecast. Wisconsin lost only 26 points in the coaches poll and a completely unforeseen 24 points in the Harris poll, out of 114 voters. I had projected the Buckeyes to pick up about 100 points in the Harris poll with LSU gone, but that simply didn't happen.
Now you must wonder, given that I had to know Wisconsin would stay ahead of Ohio State in the two polls, did I completely screw up on the computers?
The truth is, I didn't. That's why this was such a mind-numbing debacle.
I simply transposed two projections. on Massey and Sagarin, I assigned the values of 20 (for No. 6) to OSU instead of OU on my spreadsheet, and 10 (No. 16) for OSU to OU.
By making these mistakes, Ohio State's computer numbers were inflated to .790 instead of .680 (OSU's actual BCS computer score was .660) and Oklahoma's was deflated from .780 to .640 (OU actual: .760). This explains why OU was also initially projected to be a spot lower (No. 10) than it ended up (No. 9).
I don't expect everyone who reads this blog to get all this - and you shouldn't have to. It was incumbent on me to check and double-check my own data before publishing the projections. Perhaps I was in too much of a rush to get the projections out (this has become a bad habit since I moved back to the West Coast), or maybe because I did so well the last two weeks (1-10 in exact order two weeks ago and 1-13 last week) that a little hubris got the better of meticulousness.
Whatever, it was my mistake and I own it. The only thing to do is to acknowledge it and make sure it won't happen again. I still maintain that my record speaks for itself over the years, against Jerry Palm, Brad Edwards, anybody. I have a report card dating from 2006 to prove it.
And finally, I don't mind the criticism and even the hate mail. I deserve it, and I won't erase any of it to cover my own ass. You can't make me feel any worse than I already do.
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Going Bowling, 2010-11 Edition
Every year the Guru gets bombarded with bowl matchup questions and emails, and every year I ask that you wait 'till November before even thinking about making any plans.
Why? Do you remember who was No. 1 in the first official BCS standings? That was just three weeks ago.
Any speculation and projection before we go back into standard time is more than premature. Even now, things are still pretty fluid. Though we do know this:
TCU is one victory away from an undefeated season.
Right, we know the Horned Frogs still have an exhibition game against New Mexico in two weeks. But for all intents and purposes, a TCU home victory this Saturday over San Diego State - a good team, to be sure, but not in TCU's league - will punch TCU's ticket to a BCS bowl game.
You have to like the Frogs' position. At worse, they'll have the Rose Bowl, not bad to have the granddaddy as the consolation prize. And if either Oregon or Auburn should falter - and it's looking very likely with the Tigers, given the Cam Newton mess - TCU will play for the BCS national championship.
With that as the backdrop, here are the Guru's first BCS bowl projections for the season, with conference tiebreaking rules sprinkled in throughout:
BCS National Championshp Game
Oregon vs. TCU
The Ducks still have a couple of tests left on their schedule, particularly the season finale Civil War game at Corvallis, but they look pretty invincible right now. TCU won't lose, so the only question is how badly the Frogs would beat New Mexico, which lost to Oregon, 72-0, in the season opener.
Rose Bowl
Wisconsin vs. Stanford
The Rose Bowl will be thrilled to see the Frogs in Glendale, which means it will be free and clear to choose whomever it wants to replace the Pac-10 champ.* And Stanford would be a no-brainer, since ToR (that's Tournament of Roses) wants to preserve the Big Ten-Pac-10 matchup. Wisconsin owns the inside track to the Big Ten title, unless Ohio State loses to Iowa.
Here's how it would shake out in the Big Ten:
If Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan State all finish 7-1 in conference, the team with the highest BCS ranking would get the Rose Bowl bid. Neither Ohio State nor Michigan State will pass the Badgers if they don't lose.
If Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan State all finish 7-1 in conference, then Michigan State wins the tiebreaker.
If Ohio State and Michigan State both finish 7-1 in conference, it also goes to the BCS rankings. The Spartans will not pass the Buckeyes there.
All other two-way tie scenarios would favor the winning team in head-to-head matchups: Wisconsin defeated Ohio State and Iowa. Michigan State defeated Wisconsin but lost to Iowa.
Sugar Bowl
LSU vs. Boise State
The Tigers would win the SEC West only if Auburn loses its two remaining games (against Georgia and at Alabama), and given the Newton distraction, it may very well happen. Since there's a dearth of quality BCS conference teams to choose from, and a rematch of LSU vs. Ohio State in New Orleans isn't all that appetizing, the Sugar Bowl may decide to bite the bullet and invite the Broncos, taking a third BCS buster in four years (following Hawaii in 2008 and Utah in 2009).
If the Sugar passes on Boise State here by picking (most likely) a Big Ten team, then the Broncos will be effectively boxed out of a BCS bowl game.
Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. Alabama
If Auburn loses its last two games and Newton gets suspended, as is possible, then the Orange Bowl will opt for two-loss 'Bama over two-loss Auburn, bringing Nick Saban back to South Florida for the first time since he bailed on the Dolphins. None of the two-loss Big 12 teams or one-loss Big Ten teams would be more attractive than the defending national champion. And the Orange Bowl hasn't had an SEC team there since 2002.
Fiesta Bowl
Nebraska vs. Pittsburgh
The price you pay for hosting the BCS national title game is you get stuck with an absolutely crummy game (unless you're the Rose Bowl). Fiesta does not even get a choice here as it must grab the Big East champion. If you're checking out this week's BCS standings, you'll find that the highest-ranked Big East team (Pitt) is not only behind non-AQ teams such as TCU, Boise State and Utah, but also the top team in Conference USA (Central Florida) and MAC (Temple). Yet, the Big East continues to hum along as an AQ conference.
* The Rose Bowl isn't obligated to take Boise State if TCU advances to the BCS title game. According to BCS executive director Bill Hancock:
Why? Do you remember who was No. 1 in the first official BCS standings? That was just three weeks ago.
Any speculation and projection before we go back into standard time is more than premature. Even now, things are still pretty fluid. Though we do know this:
TCU is one victory away from an undefeated season.
Right, we know the Horned Frogs still have an exhibition game against New Mexico in two weeks. But for all intents and purposes, a TCU home victory this Saturday over San Diego State - a good team, to be sure, but not in TCU's league - will punch TCU's ticket to a BCS bowl game.
You have to like the Frogs' position. At worse, they'll have the Rose Bowl, not bad to have the granddaddy as the consolation prize. And if either Oregon or Auburn should falter - and it's looking very likely with the Tigers, given the Cam Newton mess - TCU will play for the BCS national championship.
With that as the backdrop, here are the Guru's first BCS bowl projections for the season, with conference tiebreaking rules sprinkled in throughout:
BCS National Championshp Game
Oregon vs. TCU
The Ducks still have a couple of tests left on their schedule, particularly the season finale Civil War game at Corvallis, but they look pretty invincible right now. TCU won't lose, so the only question is how badly the Frogs would beat New Mexico, which lost to Oregon, 72-0, in the season opener.
Rose Bowl
Wisconsin vs. Stanford
The Rose Bowl will be thrilled to see the Frogs in Glendale, which means it will be free and clear to choose whomever it wants to replace the Pac-10 champ.* And Stanford would be a no-brainer, since ToR (that's Tournament of Roses) wants to preserve the Big Ten-Pac-10 matchup. Wisconsin owns the inside track to the Big Ten title, unless Ohio State loses to Iowa.
Here's how it would shake out in the Big Ten:
If Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan State all finish 7-1 in conference, the team with the highest BCS ranking would get the Rose Bowl bid. Neither Ohio State nor Michigan State will pass the Badgers if they don't lose.
If Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan State all finish 7-1 in conference, then Michigan State wins the tiebreaker.
If Ohio State and Michigan State both finish 7-1 in conference, it also goes to the BCS rankings. The Spartans will not pass the Buckeyes there.
All other two-way tie scenarios would favor the winning team in head-to-head matchups: Wisconsin defeated Ohio State and Iowa. Michigan State defeated Wisconsin but lost to Iowa.
Sugar Bowl
LSU vs. Boise State
The Tigers would win the SEC West only if Auburn loses its two remaining games (against Georgia and at Alabama), and given the Newton distraction, it may very well happen. Since there's a dearth of quality BCS conference teams to choose from, and a rematch of LSU vs. Ohio State in New Orleans isn't all that appetizing, the Sugar Bowl may decide to bite the bullet and invite the Broncos, taking a third BCS buster in four years (following Hawaii in 2008 and Utah in 2009).
If the Sugar passes on Boise State here by picking (most likely) a Big Ten team, then the Broncos will be effectively boxed out of a BCS bowl game.
Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. Alabama
If Auburn loses its last two games and Newton gets suspended, as is possible, then the Orange Bowl will opt for two-loss 'Bama over two-loss Auburn, bringing Nick Saban back to South Florida for the first time since he bailed on the Dolphins. None of the two-loss Big 12 teams or one-loss Big Ten teams would be more attractive than the defending national champion. And the Orange Bowl hasn't had an SEC team there since 2002.
Fiesta Bowl
Nebraska vs. Pittsburgh
The price you pay for hosting the BCS national title game is you get stuck with an absolutely crummy game (unless you're the Rose Bowl). Fiesta does not even get a choice here as it must grab the Big East champion. If you're checking out this week's BCS standings, you'll find that the highest-ranked Big East team (Pitt) is not only behind non-AQ teams such as TCU, Boise State and Utah, but also the top team in Conference USA (Central Florida) and MAC (Temple). Yet, the Big East continues to hum along as an AQ conference.
* The Rose Bowl isn't obligated to take Boise State if TCU advances to the BCS title game. According to BCS executive director Bill Hancock:
That's because if it loses a team to the championship game, the Rose Bowl is obligated to take the automatic qualifier from the non-AQ group, if it is available. TCU would be the automatic qualifier from the non-AQ group, but it would not be available since it would be in the championship game.
In that example, Boise State would be eligible to be selected at-large by any bowl, including the Rose.
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Boise State: Humanitarian-Bound
For Boise State, it had been a very bad week. So bad, that the Broncos now seem destined to be home for the holidays.
Despite a comfortable victory over Louisiana Tech last Tuesday, the Broncos dropped once again in the two polls that account for two-thirds of the BCS standings. And because of that, they're now No. 4 in the standings, being leapfrogged by their non-AQ competitor TCU.
What that means is: Never mind the BCS title game. A BCS bowl berth - at the Rose Bowl, no less - is slipping out of their clutch. If the season ended today, the Broncos would be consigned to play on their home blue turf, in the Humanitarian Bowl.
Oops, excuse me, the uDrove Humanitarian Bowl.
This isn't some kind of scare-mongering sensationalism, but the sad truth in the strange machinations of the BCS. OK, the Broncos probably will end up in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl (my friend Doug Kelly's wet dream), but now we're splitting hairs.
Here's how everything would go down:
* Oregon would play Auburn in the BCS title game by virtue of being Nos. 1 and 2 in the BCS standings.
* TCU would play the Big Ten champ in the Rose Bowl, which is contractually obligated to take the non-AQ qualifier should it loses the Big Ten or Pac-10 representative to the title game.
* The Sugar Bowl, having the next two picks, would take the best SEC team available, in this case Alabama. And this is where it gets interesting. It could take Boise State, but after the Tide's humiliation at the hands of Utah two years ago, and having had two non-AQ teams there the last three years, the Sugar Bowl will opt for the Big Ten runner-up instead (either Wisconsin or Ohio State, or Iowa, after the Rose Bowl plucks the champ). It gets a game with two traditional powers, with the expectation that the SEC team would rout another Big Ten opponent.
* The Orange Bowl, up next, has the ACC champ. With its historical ties to the old Big Eight, it would grab either Nebraska or Oklahoma, whichever doesn't win the Big 12 title.
*Finally, the Fiesta Bowl would be stuck with the Big 12 champ and the Big East champ, be it Pitt, Syracuse or whichever team comes out a conference that currently does not have a single team in the BCS top 25.
That's it. Virginia Tech, a team that Boise State beat in a virtual road game to open the season, most likely will be in a BCS bowl, representing the ACC. The Big East is guaranteed a spot as well, even though it's being outnumbered, 4-0, in the current BCS top 25 by WAC and Mountain West teams.
And Boise State, potentially with a 12-0 record and a No. 4 ranking in the BCS standings, will be shut out of a BCS bowl and get a MAC team (not even the champion) in its home stadium. Or play the day before the BCS title game, on the field of a baseball stadium, even if it belongs to the newly minted World Series champ ... (ugh, those words shouldn't go together).
Oh, the indignity.
The pivot here really is the Sugar Bowl. If it opts for the aforementioned SEC-Big Ten matchup, as is probable, then Boise would be locked out. The Orange Bowl, which has had nothing but crummy games of late, won't even think about picking Boise State. And the Fiesta Bowl won't have a choice but to take a potentially 4-loss Big East winner.
Falling to 4th behind TCU is what gets Boise State in this predicament, and the likelihood, going forward, of the Broncos jumping back over TCU is remote, and here's why:
* The Broncos do not have a single game left that will give them a boost in the polls, not even Nevada, which is currently No. 23 in the BCS standings. TCU, on the other hand, will gain additional poll points if it defeats unbeaten Utah this week.
* With the poll gap shrinking further, Boise's computer deficit will be the decisive factor in keeping the Horned Frogs ahead in the standings.
So all Boise State has left, besides winning its remaining games, is hope for change, because the status quo won't do (hmmm, I need to get the election out of my head). Basically, the Broncos need these scenarios to develop:
* A TCU loss, to Utah this weekend or to a resurgent San Diego State next week. The Frogs' only remaining game after that is a laugher at New Mexico, which they might win by 70 (Oregon beat the Lobos, 72-0).
* An Alabama loss to LSU this weekend or to Mississippi State next week. And then an Alabama win over Auburn in the Iron Bowl. The loss knocks Alabama out of the BCS title race, the win over Auburn eliminates the SEC entirely from the title-game picture.
* An Oregon loss to either Arizona or Oregon State in its final two games of the season.
Should two of the scenarios occur, then the Broncos are back in contention for the BCS title game. Should only one of them take place, they'll have the Rose Bowl (not a bad consolation prize, all things considered). If Oregon, TCU and either Alabama or Auburn win out, then the Broncos would be effectively boxed out.
The next two weeks will prove crucial to the Broncos - particularly this Saturday. Maybe they should put the Alabama and TCU games on a split screen when they host Hawaii this weekend, as all three games will take place simultaneously. Whatever happens on the blue turf will have far less impact on the Broncos than the ones they're not playing in.
Despite a comfortable victory over Louisiana Tech last Tuesday, the Broncos dropped once again in the two polls that account for two-thirds of the BCS standings. And because of that, they're now No. 4 in the standings, being leapfrogged by their non-AQ competitor TCU.
What that means is: Never mind the BCS title game. A BCS bowl berth - at the Rose Bowl, no less - is slipping out of their clutch. If the season ended today, the Broncos would be consigned to play on their home blue turf, in the Humanitarian Bowl.
Oops, excuse me, the uDrove Humanitarian Bowl.
This isn't some kind of scare-mongering sensationalism, but the sad truth in the strange machinations of the BCS. OK, the Broncos probably will end up in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl (my friend Doug Kelly's wet dream), but now we're splitting hairs.
Here's how everything would go down:
* Oregon would play Auburn in the BCS title game by virtue of being Nos. 1 and 2 in the BCS standings.
* TCU would play the Big Ten champ in the Rose Bowl, which is contractually obligated to take the non-AQ qualifier should it loses the Big Ten or Pac-10 representative to the title game.
* The Sugar Bowl, having the next two picks, would take the best SEC team available, in this case Alabama. And this is where it gets interesting. It could take Boise State, but after the Tide's humiliation at the hands of Utah two years ago, and having had two non-AQ teams there the last three years, the Sugar Bowl will opt for the Big Ten runner-up instead (either Wisconsin or Ohio State, or Iowa, after the Rose Bowl plucks the champ). It gets a game with two traditional powers, with the expectation that the SEC team would rout another Big Ten opponent.
* The Orange Bowl, up next, has the ACC champ. With its historical ties to the old Big Eight, it would grab either Nebraska or Oklahoma, whichever doesn't win the Big 12 title.
*Finally, the Fiesta Bowl would be stuck with the Big 12 champ and the Big East champ, be it Pitt, Syracuse or whichever team comes out a conference that currently does not have a single team in the BCS top 25.
That's it. Virginia Tech, a team that Boise State beat in a virtual road game to open the season, most likely will be in a BCS bowl, representing the ACC. The Big East is guaranteed a spot as well, even though it's being outnumbered, 4-0, in the current BCS top 25 by WAC and Mountain West teams.
And Boise State, potentially with a 12-0 record and a No. 4 ranking in the BCS standings, will be shut out of a BCS bowl and get a MAC team (not even the champion) in its home stadium. Or play the day before the BCS title game, on the field of a baseball stadium, even if it belongs to the newly minted World Series champ ... (ugh, those words shouldn't go together).
Oh, the indignity.
The pivot here really is the Sugar Bowl. If it opts for the aforementioned SEC-Big Ten matchup, as is probable, then Boise would be locked out. The Orange Bowl, which has had nothing but crummy games of late, won't even think about picking Boise State. And the Fiesta Bowl won't have a choice but to take a potentially 4-loss Big East winner.
Falling to 4th behind TCU is what gets Boise State in this predicament, and the likelihood, going forward, of the Broncos jumping back over TCU is remote, and here's why:
* The Broncos do not have a single game left that will give them a boost in the polls, not even Nevada, which is currently No. 23 in the BCS standings. TCU, on the other hand, will gain additional poll points if it defeats unbeaten Utah this week.
* With the poll gap shrinking further, Boise's computer deficit will be the decisive factor in keeping the Horned Frogs ahead in the standings.
So all Boise State has left, besides winning its remaining games, is hope for change, because the status quo won't do (hmmm, I need to get the election out of my head). Basically, the Broncos need these scenarios to develop:
* A TCU loss, to Utah this weekend or to a resurgent San Diego State next week. The Frogs' only remaining game after that is a laugher at New Mexico, which they might win by 70 (Oregon beat the Lobos, 72-0).
* An Alabama loss to LSU this weekend or to Mississippi State next week. And then an Alabama win over Auburn in the Iron Bowl. The loss knocks Alabama out of the BCS title race, the win over Auburn eliminates the SEC entirely from the title-game picture.
* An Oregon loss to either Arizona or Oregon State in its final two games of the season.
Should two of the scenarios occur, then the Broncos are back in contention for the BCS title game. Should only one of them take place, they'll have the Rose Bowl (not a bad consolation prize, all things considered). If Oregon, TCU and either Alabama or Auburn win out, then the Broncos would be effectively boxed out.
The next two weeks will prove crucial to the Broncos - particularly this Saturday. Maybe they should put the Alabama and TCU games on a split screen when they host Hawaii this weekend, as all three games will take place simultaneously. Whatever happens on the blue turf will have far less impact on the Broncos than the ones they're not playing in.
Friday, January 1, 2010
Big Ten's Grand Revenge Tour
The Big Ten. Slow. Conservative. Bad.
Uh. Check that.
Make that. Fast enough. Aggressively enough. Not half bad.
So just what happened? Last year, the Big Ten went 1-6 in bowl games and, after Ohio State's back-to-back drubbing in the BCS national championship games the previous two seasons, the conference was officially written off as an anachronism.
But the 2009 bowl season is bringing a Big Ten renaissance. The conference is 3-2, having won the Rose Bowl and lost a 1-point game and in overtime. Two more teams have yet to play, with Iowa in another BCS game against Georgia Tech, in the Orange Bowl.
(Check out the Guru's Bowl Chart, breaking down how the conferences are doing against each other.)
Ohio State's win over Oregon in the Rose Bowl should really not be that surprising. The Buckeyes have made up ground on the BCS elite in the past two years. They lost a heartbreaker to Texas in the Fiesta Bowl last year and nearly defeated USC (when the Trojans were actually good) earlier this season. They came out with the perfect game plan to throttle the over-confident Ducks, who managed just 17 points.
The "fact" that the Pac-10 has dominated the Rose Bowl is really misstated. The reality is that USC has dominated the Rose Bowl, and the rest of the Pac-10 anything but. Since Washington won back-to-back in '90 and '91, USC is 5-1 in the Rose Bowl (the loss was to Texas, of course) and the rest of the Pac-10 is 1-9.
The Big Ten couldn't handle the Trojans, but they do just fine against everybody else. Somebody forgot to mention this to the Ducks, who thought they'd just show up and collect the trophy.
Playing in the mud in Orlando, Penn State took care of LSU, the third-best team in the SEC. Northwestern nearly knocked off Auburn, who gave top-ranked Alabama fits. And perennially too-slow, too-plodding Wisconsin (yeah, I said that), just ran roughshod over Miami, also in not-so-warm Orlando.
By the way, I have no problem with Pat Fitzgerald's decision to run that fake field goal to try to win the game in the Outback Bowl. His kicker was hurt. The scheme was good. The only problem was maybe the "fumblerooski" developed too quickly. To carry this one out, the guy with the ball usually needs to count to three before moving, to better create an over-pursue by the defense.
While the Big Ten is doing well enough, it's not going to outdo the Mountain West, which has clinched the Bowl Challenge Cup (its third in six seasons), with only TCU's Fiesta Bowl date with Boise State remaining. The conference that has egg on its face is the one that won the Bowl Challenge Cup last season with a 5-0 record.
The Pac-10 has been absolutely abysmal in this bowl season, wrapped up with Oregon's loss in Pasadena. It went 2-5, with only USC's lackluster win over Boston College and UCLA's comeback against Temple to show for it. Arizona and Oregon State, who tied for second in the conference, were utterly embarrassed.
So all that stuff about the Pac-10 being the best conference from top-to-bottom in 2009 ... uh, I will get back to you on that one.
Uh. Check that.
Make that. Fast enough. Aggressively enough. Not half bad.
So just what happened? Last year, the Big Ten went 1-6 in bowl games and, after Ohio State's back-to-back drubbing in the BCS national championship games the previous two seasons, the conference was officially written off as an anachronism.
But the 2009 bowl season is bringing a Big Ten renaissance. The conference is 3-2, having won the Rose Bowl and lost a 1-point game and in overtime. Two more teams have yet to play, with Iowa in another BCS game against Georgia Tech, in the Orange Bowl.
(Check out the Guru's Bowl Chart, breaking down how the conferences are doing against each other.)
Ohio State's win over Oregon in the Rose Bowl should really not be that surprising. The Buckeyes have made up ground on the BCS elite in the past two years. They lost a heartbreaker to Texas in the Fiesta Bowl last year and nearly defeated USC (when the Trojans were actually good) earlier this season. They came out with the perfect game plan to throttle the over-confident Ducks, who managed just 17 points.
The "fact" that the Pac-10 has dominated the Rose Bowl is really misstated. The reality is that USC has dominated the Rose Bowl, and the rest of the Pac-10 anything but. Since Washington won back-to-back in '90 and '91, USC is 5-1 in the Rose Bowl (the loss was to Texas, of course) and the rest of the Pac-10 is 1-9.
The Big Ten couldn't handle the Trojans, but they do just fine against everybody else. Somebody forgot to mention this to the Ducks, who thought they'd just show up and collect the trophy.
Playing in the mud in Orlando, Penn State took care of LSU, the third-best team in the SEC. Northwestern nearly knocked off Auburn, who gave top-ranked Alabama fits. And perennially too-slow, too-plodding Wisconsin (yeah, I said that), just ran roughshod over Miami, also in not-so-warm Orlando.
By the way, I have no problem with Pat Fitzgerald's decision to run that fake field goal to try to win the game in the Outback Bowl. His kicker was hurt. The scheme was good. The only problem was maybe the "fumblerooski" developed too quickly. To carry this one out, the guy with the ball usually needs to count to three before moving, to better create an over-pursue by the defense.
While the Big Ten is doing well enough, it's not going to outdo the Mountain West, which has clinched the Bowl Challenge Cup (its third in six seasons), with only TCU's Fiesta Bowl date with Boise State remaining. The conference that has egg on its face is the one that won the Bowl Challenge Cup last season with a 5-0 record.
The Pac-10 has been absolutely abysmal in this bowl season, wrapped up with Oregon's loss in Pasadena. It went 2-5, with only USC's lackluster win over Boston College and UCLA's comeback against Temple to show for it. Arizona and Oregon State, who tied for second in the conference, were utterly embarrassed.
So all that stuff about the Pac-10 being the best conference from top-to-bottom in 2009 ... uh, I will get back to you on that one.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
The Season's First BCS Bowl Cast
Let's go first thing first, since I made the pledge to investigate last week's inaccurate projection of the No. 2 team in the BCS Standings.
Well, the findings turned out to be as simple as what the Warren Commission uncovered: A single shooter with a magic bullet. Except that it didn't require the entire weight of the federal government and thousands of pages to state the obvious.
The voters did it, basically, particularly the Harris voters. As of Week 8, Alabama was safely at No. 2, with Texas a good deal behind. But after Texas' impressive victory at Oklahoma State and with Alabama idle, there was a whopping 44-point flip in the Harris Poll, meaning nearly 20 percent of the voters switched their votes. The movement in the Coaches Poll was a bit less, but a 14-point swing still represented a 12 percent change from the previous week.
That is somewhat unprecedented. I had projected Texas to edge ahead of Alabama in the polls, but not to this degree. But I will give the voters credit. This season, they seemed more than ever willing to reconsider their ballots from week to week. And not just for the top two or three slots, but the entire top 10.
Since that's the case, I'll keep that in mind the rest of the season and do better with the projections this week.
Now, onto the most pressing question, something everyone seems to be wondering at this point: What's the BCS Bowl picture look like?
With five weeks still to go in the regular season, and seven teams still remain unbeaten, the BCS bowl picture is far from clear. But there's enough to at least take a stab at. So here it is:
BCS National Championship Game
Florida/Alabama winner vs. Texas
Other contenders (in order of likelihood): Iowa, TCU, Cincinnati, LSU, Boise State, Oregon.
Comment: Florida and Alabama are on a collision course for the conference title game. If neither team stumbles, the winner of that game will be representing the SEC in the BCS title game for the fourth straight season. Texas has a clear sailing toward the Big 12 title game, as it's expected to be a double-digit favorite for all of the remaining games.
Rose Bowl
Ohio State vs. Oregon
Other contenders: Iowa, Penn State; Arizona.
Comment: Ohio State controls its own destiny. Wins over Penn State and Iowa will send the Buckeyes to Pasadena. Penn State needs to beat Ohio State and also Iowa to lose twice. Arizona, believe it or not, still controls its own destiny as well, though it has Oregon, Cal and USC on the schedule. But if the Wildcats run the table, they will be making the school's first-ever Rose Bowl appearance.
Sugar Bowl
Florida/Alabama loser vs. TCU
Other contenders: Boise State, Utah.
Comment: The Sugar Bowl has to take the SEC runner-up with the first pick, or risk losing it to the Orange Bowl. By BCS's rotation rules, it will have the last pick. So that means it'll end up with the top-ranked Coalition team, either TCU or Boise State, or even Utah, which needs to knock off TCU and a Boise State upset loss for a return trip to New Orleans.
Fiesta Bowl
USC vs. Pittsburgh/Cincinnati winner
Other contenders: Notre Dame, Big Ten runner-up, Boise State, Arizona.
Comment: If the Trojans remain unbeaten the rest of the season, expect the Fiesta to snag them with the second pick. If they lose, then a 10-2 Notre Dame team will go here. If both teams lose somewhere along the way, then the Big Ten runner-up will get the nod. If the Fiesta ends up with the Big Ten runner-up, then it might decide to use its second pick on Boise State, even if it doesn't get the Coalition automatic bid.
Orange Bowl
Iowa vs. Georgia Tech (ACC champion)
Other contenders: Penn State, Cincinnati/Pittsburgh winner; Miami.
Comment: Most likely, the Orange will use its pick to take the Big Ten runner-up to go with the ACC champion. If neither USC nor Notre Dame qualified and the Fiesta decides to take the Big Ten's runner-up, then the Orange will go ahead and grab the Big East winner. A scenario also exists for a 10-2 Miami team to claim this spot.
Well, the findings turned out to be as simple as what the Warren Commission uncovered: A single shooter with a magic bullet. Except that it didn't require the entire weight of the federal government and thousands of pages to state the obvious.
The voters did it, basically, particularly the Harris voters. As of Week 8, Alabama was safely at No. 2, with Texas a good deal behind. But after Texas' impressive victory at Oklahoma State and with Alabama idle, there was a whopping 44-point flip in the Harris Poll, meaning nearly 20 percent of the voters switched their votes. The movement in the Coaches Poll was a bit less, but a 14-point swing still represented a 12 percent change from the previous week.
That is somewhat unprecedented. I had projected Texas to edge ahead of Alabama in the polls, but not to this degree. But I will give the voters credit. This season, they seemed more than ever willing to reconsider their ballots from week to week. And not just for the top two or three slots, but the entire top 10.
Since that's the case, I'll keep that in mind the rest of the season and do better with the projections this week.
Now, onto the most pressing question, something everyone seems to be wondering at this point: What's the BCS Bowl picture look like?
With five weeks still to go in the regular season, and seven teams still remain unbeaten, the BCS bowl picture is far from clear. But there's enough to at least take a stab at. So here it is:
BCS National Championship Game
Florida/Alabama winner vs. Texas
Other contenders (in order of likelihood): Iowa, TCU, Cincinnati, LSU, Boise State, Oregon.
Comment: Florida and Alabama are on a collision course for the conference title game. If neither team stumbles, the winner of that game will be representing the SEC in the BCS title game for the fourth straight season. Texas has a clear sailing toward the Big 12 title game, as it's expected to be a double-digit favorite for all of the remaining games.
Rose Bowl
Ohio State vs. Oregon
Other contenders: Iowa, Penn State; Arizona.
Comment: Ohio State controls its own destiny. Wins over Penn State and Iowa will send the Buckeyes to Pasadena. Penn State needs to beat Ohio State and also Iowa to lose twice. Arizona, believe it or not, still controls its own destiny as well, though it has Oregon, Cal and USC on the schedule. But if the Wildcats run the table, they will be making the school's first-ever Rose Bowl appearance.
Sugar Bowl
Florida/Alabama loser vs. TCU
Other contenders: Boise State, Utah.
Comment: The Sugar Bowl has to take the SEC runner-up with the first pick, or risk losing it to the Orange Bowl. By BCS's rotation rules, it will have the last pick. So that means it'll end up with the top-ranked Coalition team, either TCU or Boise State, or even Utah, which needs to knock off TCU and a Boise State upset loss for a return trip to New Orleans.
Fiesta Bowl
USC vs. Pittsburgh/Cincinnati winner
Other contenders: Notre Dame, Big Ten runner-up, Boise State, Arizona.
Comment: If the Trojans remain unbeaten the rest of the season, expect the Fiesta to snag them with the second pick. If they lose, then a 10-2 Notre Dame team will go here. If both teams lose somewhere along the way, then the Big Ten runner-up will get the nod. If the Fiesta ends up with the Big Ten runner-up, then it might decide to use its second pick on Boise State, even if it doesn't get the Coalition automatic bid.
Orange Bowl
Iowa vs. Georgia Tech (ACC champion)
Other contenders: Penn State, Cincinnati/Pittsburgh winner; Miami.
Comment: Most likely, the Orange will use its pick to take the Big Ten runner-up to go with the ACC champion. If neither USC nor Notre Dame qualified and the Fiesta decides to take the Big Ten's runner-up, then the Orange will go ahead and grab the Big East winner. A scenario also exists for a 10-2 Miami team to claim this spot.
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