For only the third time in its venerable history, Michigan Stadium will host a night game. When the Wolverines take on Penn State on Oct. 11 at 7 p.m., it will be the first Big Ten game to be played entirely under the lights at the Big House.
It's about time.
Night games are a fact of life now in college football, and there really isn't anything wrong with that. Saturday is the ideal night to stay up late anyway. You can sleep in the day of and after the game, still catch the late Sunday Mass or service and be awake enough for the first NFL kickoff at 1 p.m. This isn't like starting a World Series game at 8 p.m. on a school night.
As for Michigan and the Big Ten, it's a sign of the times.
Though its Big Ten title drought has now reached a decade, Michigan is still among the five most powerful brand names in college football. The Big House, with its 109,901 seats, is still the biggest stadium in the land. Having games played in primetime under the lights is an important part of staying competitive and relevant in the 21st century.
The SEC has made Saturday night games an attraction during the BCS era, with a few epic battles between LSU and Alabama coming immediately to mind. The Pac-12 has also used night games to get increased face-time, with a built-in time-zone advantage as those primetime games start at a not-so-late 5 p.m. kickoff time.
The Big Ten—particularly Michigan—has resisted playing at night until recent years, with tradition and weather the primary considerations. The Big House finally hosted its first night game in 2011, when Michigan rallied to a miraculous win over Notre Dame. The Wolverines repeated that feat last year with another electrifying win over the Irish.
The choice of Penn State as the foe for the 2014 night game is inspired. While the Nittany Lions are still on probation for the Jerry Sandusky transgressions, they're also one of the marquee names in college football. These teams, who have not met in Ann Arbor since 2009, are now division rivals in the realigned Big Ten.
Perhaps the most memorable Michigan-Penn State game ended under the lights, even though it didn't start at night. In 2005, Mario Manningham caught a Chad Henne TD pass on the game's final play as Michigan handed the Lions their only loss of the season, one that denied them a shot at the BCS championship.
Michigan coach Brady Hoke endorsed playing under the lights, according to a statement released by the school:
"The night game atmosphere created by our fans has been electric and we expect that same type of energy for our first-ever conference night game against Penn State. Our players really enjoy playing in primetime at Michigan Stadium."
The 2014 game will be televised on ESPN (or ESPN2) as part of a revamped primetime schedule for the network. The Wolverines have been a Bristol favorite for Big Ten night games, though until the coming season they've always played on the road.
About the only thing to spoil the idea is a lack of moderation. As long as Michigan plays only sparingly at night and never past mid-October, the Big House under the lights will be a welcome new sight for college football.
Showing posts with label Penn State. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Penn State. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 8, 2014
Friday, March 21, 2014
How Penn State Could Have Saved Big East Football
Imagine the College Football Playoff beginning next season not with five, but six major conferences.
The Big East is still at the table, but not splintered into a basketball version of mostly Catholic schools and a watered-down, rebranded football version that's no longer among the big boys but has to fight for scraps.
Imagine a healthy Big East football roster with these teams: Syracuse, Rutgers, Boston College, UConn, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Penn State. Oh yeah, and possibly even Notre Dame.
This conference—with or without Notre Dame—would not be relegated to the "Group of Five" as the Big East successor American Athletic Conference will be in the CFP. It would've had one of the biggest TV contracts and among the best bowl lineups. It very well might have been even bigger, having raided the northern ACC schools such as Maryland and Virginia.
All this could've happened with the change of just a single vote back in 1982.
With the NCAA tournament in full flight, ESPN touched on the demise of the once-mighty basketball conference in the excellent "Requiem for the Big East." The 30-for-30 series film touched on how football ruined the conference, that its drive to get the lucrative football TV money inevitably destroyed what was the best basketball conference in history.
But what if I told you football could've minted the Big East instead of ruined it? It came down to one vote.
In 1982, the independent football powers started to see the handwriting on the wall after the major conferences freed themselves from the bonds of the NCAA and were able to negotiate their own television deals. Penn State's Joe Paterno was contemplating the formation a new eastern football conference, but was persuaded to apply to join the nascent Big East.
By a single vote, the Big East athletic directors turned down Penn State's membership request. Needing six votes to pass, Penn State got five. Three basketball schools—Georgetown, St. John's and Villanova—voted against JoePa's Nittany Lions.
Villanova actually had played Division I football and produced NFL players including Hall of Famer Howie Long. But it shut down the football program in 1980, citing lack of support, only to bring it back four years later under pressure from the alumni. Had the vote not taken place during the 'Cats' football hiatus, Villanova would've cast the deciding vote in favor of Penn State and thus changed history.
Mike Tranghese, who was then-commissioner Dave Gavitt's right-hand man, said he told Gavitt the Big East would "rue the day" when it rejected Penn State. Tranghese would later succeed Gavitt and tried vainly to make the Big East football-relevant, but by then it was too late.
Penn State joined the Big Ten instead in 1990 and that officially began the football-and-TV-driven realignment frenzy that's still not quite finished. The Big East was raided by the Big 12, Big Ten and the ACC until it was no more.
A Big East with Penn State as the kingpin in football, however, would've thrived in this age. It would've monopolized all the big media markets on the eastern seaboard and gotten a huge windfall of television dollars. (And remember, the Big East was actually the first conference to have its own network.) Even as late as 2011, before the Big East's final collapse, it was offered a $1.1 billion TV deal, which of course it foolishly turned down.
With Penn State in the fold, Notre Dame might've joined the Big East in the '80s as well, as its fanbase has always been more eastern oriented than around its midwest-based campus. And in that case the Irish would've been a full member instead of staying independent in football when they did join the Big East in 1995.
Gavitt's vision had always been making the Big East the premier basketball conference, which was achieved to an astonishing degree in the 1980s, with the crowning moment in 1985 when three conference teams made the Final Four. But by failing to tame the beast that is football, Gavitt's beloved creation ended up being eaten alive by it 30 years later.
The Big East is still at the table, but not splintered into a basketball version of mostly Catholic schools and a watered-down, rebranded football version that's no longer among the big boys but has to fight for scraps.
Imagine a healthy Big East football roster with these teams: Syracuse, Rutgers, Boston College, UConn, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Penn State. Oh yeah, and possibly even Notre Dame.
This conference—with or without Notre Dame—would not be relegated to the "Group of Five" as the Big East successor American Athletic Conference will be in the CFP. It would've had one of the biggest TV contracts and among the best bowl lineups. It very well might have been even bigger, having raided the northern ACC schools such as Maryland and Virginia.
All this could've happened with the change of just a single vote back in 1982.
With the NCAA tournament in full flight, ESPN touched on the demise of the once-mighty basketball conference in the excellent "Requiem for the Big East." The 30-for-30 series film touched on how football ruined the conference, that its drive to get the lucrative football TV money inevitably destroyed what was the best basketball conference in history.
But what if I told you football could've minted the Big East instead of ruined it? It came down to one vote.
In 1982, the independent football powers started to see the handwriting on the wall after the major conferences freed themselves from the bonds of the NCAA and were able to negotiate their own television deals. Penn State's Joe Paterno was contemplating the formation a new eastern football conference, but was persuaded to apply to join the nascent Big East.
By a single vote, the Big East athletic directors turned down Penn State's membership request. Needing six votes to pass, Penn State got five. Three basketball schools—Georgetown, St. John's and Villanova—voted against JoePa's Nittany Lions.
Villanova actually had played Division I football and produced NFL players including Hall of Famer Howie Long. But it shut down the football program in 1980, citing lack of support, only to bring it back four years later under pressure from the alumni. Had the vote not taken place during the 'Cats' football hiatus, Villanova would've cast the deciding vote in favor of Penn State and thus changed history.
Mike Tranghese, who was then-commissioner Dave Gavitt's right-hand man, said he told Gavitt the Big East would "rue the day" when it rejected Penn State. Tranghese would later succeed Gavitt and tried vainly to make the Big East football-relevant, but by then it was too late.
Penn State joined the Big Ten instead in 1990 and that officially began the football-and-TV-driven realignment frenzy that's still not quite finished. The Big East was raided by the Big 12, Big Ten and the ACC until it was no more.
| Team | Big East Member | Current Membership |
| Boston College | 1979-2005 | ACC |
| Cincinnati | 2005-2013 | American |
| Connecticut | 1979-2013 | American |
| Louisville | 2005-2013 | ACC |
| Maryland | Never a member | Big Ten |
| Notre Dame | 1995-2013 (non-football) | ACC (Independent football) |
| Penn State | Rejected for membership in 1982 | Big Ten |
| Pittsburgh | 1982-2013 | ACC |
| Rutgers | 1991-2013 | Big Ten |
| Syracuse | 1979-2013 | ACC |
| Temple | 1991-2005, 2012-2013 | American |
| Villanova* | 1980-2013 | Big East (FCS football) |
| Virginia | Never a member | ACC |
| Virginia Tech | 1991-2004 | ACC |
| West Virginia | 1991-2012 | Big 12 |
A Big East with Penn State as the kingpin in football, however, would've thrived in this age. It would've monopolized all the big media markets on the eastern seaboard and gotten a huge windfall of television dollars. (And remember, the Big East was actually the first conference to have its own network.) Even as late as 2011, before the Big East's final collapse, it was offered a $1.1 billion TV deal, which of course it foolishly turned down.
With Penn State in the fold, Notre Dame might've joined the Big East in the '80s as well, as its fanbase has always been more eastern oriented than around its midwest-based campus. And in that case the Irish would've been a full member instead of staying independent in football when they did join the Big East in 1995.
Gavitt's vision had always been making the Big East the premier basketball conference, which was achieved to an astonishing degree in the 1980s, with the crowning moment in 1985 when three conference teams made the Final Four. But by failing to tame the beast that is football, Gavitt's beloved creation ended up being eaten alive by it 30 years later.
Wednesday, February 19, 2014
Can Big Ten Translate Dollars Into Wins?
The Big Ten made itself a boatload of cash during the BCS era while maintaining its status (at least for a time) as the most powerful conference in college sports. But sadly, despite its shrewd business deals that greatly enriched its member schools, the Big Ten fell well short in one important area.
Now the questions is, can the Big Ten convert all those dollars into wins in the College Football Playoff era?
Money-wise, the Big Ten was the biggest winner in the 16-year BCS era. The conference sent more teams to BCS bowl games than any other and signed the biggest TV contracts in the interim. Under the ruthless leadership of commissioner Jim Delany, who's been at the helm since 1989, the conference also greatly expanded its footprint from its original midwest base.
The launching of the Big Ten Network in 2007 was both revolutionary and a stroke of genius. While it's not the first network dedicated to a single conference (the late The Mtn. of the Mountain West was), the BTN is by far the most successful, now reaching over 90 million U.S. homes.
But despite the bulging bank accounts and membership ranks, the Big Ten took a step back on the field. As the BCS era went on, the football reputation of the Big Ten became greatly diminished. The conference appeared in just three BCS title games—all by Ohio State—and won but a single championship in 2002 when the Buckeyes beat Miami in a thriller marred by a late-game controversy.
The loss of football prestige could be seen clearly in the Big Ten's regression in the BCS standings.
Voters simply didn't trust the quality of Big Ten football after the Buckeyes lost badly in back-to-back BCS title games in 2006 and '07, and repeated losses by conference teams in the Rose Bowl. Of the eight teams that represented the Big Ten in BCS bowls, only Ohio State (6-4) and Michigan State (1-0) had winning records.
As the CFP era commences in the upcoming 2014 season, does the Big Ten have a chance to reverse that trend?
The outlook isn't good. Aside from Ohio State, the Big Ten continues to lag in recruiting, with only the Buckeyes landing in the top 10 (according to 247Sports) for the 2014 class, which included seven SEC teams. The addition of Maryland and Rutgers next season is purely a TV household money grab, and will do little enhance the conference's football prowess.
The decline of the Big Ten on the field has much to do with the dramatic falls of two powerhouse members. Michigan, the last team to win a national title before the BCS era (in 1997), has fallen on hard times after stagnating in Lloyd Carr's final years, followed by the implosion under RichRod and the potential train-wreck of a hire with Brady Hoke. Penn State, currently on probation with severe sanctions, is still reeling from the Jerry Sandusky scandal.
The Big Ten is due to get another financial windfall after temporarily falling behind the SEC in the revenue arms race. The conference's current TV deal with ESPN expires after the 2016 season. And with Fox Sports, co-owner of the Big Ten Network, expected to make an aggressive play, the new contract will push conference member's annual take to exceed $35 million.
How to convert all that gold into victories on the field? That will be the Big Ten's challenge in the CFP era. Because of its huge fan base and reach in the major media markets (soon to include both New York and Washington, theoretically), the Big Ten will continue to get more than its fair share of teams in the lucrative six-bowl lineup of the CFP, and ergo, more cash.
But until it gets that elusive national championship, with a drought now reaching 11 seasons, all that money will buy the Big Ten little respect.
Now the questions is, can the Big Ten convert all those dollars into wins in the College Football Playoff era?
Money-wise, the Big Ten was the biggest winner in the 16-year BCS era. The conference sent more teams to BCS bowl games than any other and signed the biggest TV contracts in the interim. Under the ruthless leadership of commissioner Jim Delany, who's been at the helm since 1989, the conference also greatly expanded its footprint from its original midwest base.
The launching of the Big Ten Network in 2007 was both revolutionary and a stroke of genius. While it's not the first network dedicated to a single conference (the late The Mtn. of the Mountain West was), the BTN is by far the most successful, now reaching over 90 million U.S. homes.
But despite the bulging bank accounts and membership ranks, the Big Ten took a step back on the field. As the BCS era went on, the football reputation of the Big Ten became greatly diminished. The conference appeared in just three BCS title games—all by Ohio State—and won but a single championship in 2002 when the Buckeyes beat Miami in a thriller marred by a late-game controversy.
The loss of football prestige could be seen clearly in the Big Ten's regression in the BCS standings.
Voters simply didn't trust the quality of Big Ten football after the Buckeyes lost badly in back-to-back BCS title games in 2006 and '07, and repeated losses by conference teams in the Rose Bowl. Of the eight teams that represented the Big Ten in BCS bowls, only Ohio State (6-4) and Michigan State (1-0) had winning records.
As the CFP era commences in the upcoming 2014 season, does the Big Ten have a chance to reverse that trend?
The outlook isn't good. Aside from Ohio State, the Big Ten continues to lag in recruiting, with only the Buckeyes landing in the top 10 (according to 247Sports) for the 2014 class, which included seven SEC teams. The addition of Maryland and Rutgers next season is purely a TV household money grab, and will do little enhance the conference's football prowess.
The decline of the Big Ten on the field has much to do with the dramatic falls of two powerhouse members. Michigan, the last team to win a national title before the BCS era (in 1997), has fallen on hard times after stagnating in Lloyd Carr's final years, followed by the implosion under RichRod and the potential train-wreck of a hire with Brady Hoke. Penn State, currently on probation with severe sanctions, is still reeling from the Jerry Sandusky scandal.
The Big Ten is due to get another financial windfall after temporarily falling behind the SEC in the revenue arms race. The conference's current TV deal with ESPN expires after the 2016 season. And with Fox Sports, co-owner of the Big Ten Network, expected to make an aggressive play, the new contract will push conference member's annual take to exceed $35 million.
| Academic Year | Expected Revenue Per School |
| 2012-13 | $25.4 Million |
| 2013-14 | $26.4 Million |
| 2014-15 | $30.1 Million |
| 2015-16 | $33.3 Million |
| 2016-17 (Projected) | > $35 Million |
How to convert all that gold into victories on the field? That will be the Big Ten's challenge in the CFP era. Because of its huge fan base and reach in the major media markets (soon to include both New York and Washington, theoretically), the Big Ten will continue to get more than its fair share of teams in the lucrative six-bowl lineup of the CFP, and ergo, more cash.
But until it gets that elusive national championship, with a drought now reaching 11 seasons, all that money will buy the Big Ten little respect.
Thursday, January 10, 2013
Alabama Still No.1, Unanimously (Sort Of)
For the first time, at the urging of a few readers, the Guru is putting together a Simulated BCS Standings at the conclusion of the postseason. Besides addressing the faux outcry about how Notre Dame still finished first in one of the computer ratings, we also wanted to deal with ineligible teams and where they would've finished in the standings.
* Because the Harris Poll doesn't publish season-ending standings, we used the AP Poll as the stand-in. And also, since Ohio State and Penn State weren't eligible to be ranked in the Coaches Poll, we mirrored their vote shares in the AP poll in order to obtain their true rankings in the standings.
* The Colley Matrix is getting skewered for still having Notre Dame No. 1 after getting lambasted by Alabama by 28 points - in a game that wasn't really that close. But blame that anomaly on the BCS, which in 2002 decided to mandate that margin of victory can't be part of any BCS computers. So to the computers, all losses are treated as 1-point losses, and most computers don't automatically rank one team higher than another with identical records based purely on head-to-head results.
* Still, five of the six BCS computers have Alabama finishing at No. 1, coupled with unanimous votes from the AP and Coaches polls, the Crimson Tide still earned a perfect score in the final standings.
* Ohio State just nudged Notre Dame for No. 3, even though it was ineligible to play in postseason. Likewise for Penn State, which finished at No. 28.
* There is significant agreement between the computers and the polls as to which teams should be in the top 25. After Michigan - the only 5-loss team in the top 25, though it did lose to teams ranked Nos. 1, 3, 4, 8 and 22 - there is a steep drop to No. 26 Cincinnati.
* The ACC teams - Florida State and Clemson - ended up being the victims of their conference's subpar season. Even though both teams won their bowl games, they both finished outside of the top 10 because of weak computer rankings.
* A total of 42 teams appeared in the final standings, including back-to-back FCS champion North Dakota State, which received a lone vote in the AP Poll. This practice was allowed by the AP after Appalachian State upset Michigan in the 2007 season opener.
* One more note about the polls. The Coaches Poll had only 56 voters in the final poll, with the explanation that Mike MacIntyre, Sonny Dykes and Ruffin McNeill could not be reached in time to turn in their final ballots. Is this lame, or what? MacIntyre and Dykes switched jobs, but surely they have cell phones. And what's McNeill's excuse? Last we checked he's still at East Carolina.
* Is there any more questions about the SEC's dominance? Half of the conference (seven teams) is ranked in the top 23, including six in the top 13. Pac-12, Big 12 and Big Ten each placed six teams in the rankings, and the rest: Big East (3), WAC (3), MAC (3), ACC (2), CUSA (2), MWC (1), Sun Belt (1) and Notre Dame (independent).
* Because the Harris Poll doesn't publish season-ending standings, we used the AP Poll as the stand-in. And also, since Ohio State and Penn State weren't eligible to be ranked in the Coaches Poll, we mirrored their vote shares in the AP poll in order to obtain their true rankings in the standings.
* Still, five of the six BCS computers have Alabama finishing at No. 1, coupled with unanimous votes from the AP and Coaches polls, the Crimson Tide still earned a perfect score in the final standings.
* Ohio State just nudged Notre Dame for No. 3, even though it was ineligible to play in postseason. Likewise for Penn State, which finished at No. 28.
* There is significant agreement between the computers and the polls as to which teams should be in the top 25. After Michigan - the only 5-loss team in the top 25, though it did lose to teams ranked Nos. 1, 3, 4, 8 and 22 - there is a steep drop to No. 26 Cincinnati.
* The ACC teams - Florida State and Clemson - ended up being the victims of their conference's subpar season. Even though both teams won their bowl games, they both finished outside of the top 10 because of weak computer rankings.
* A total of 42 teams appeared in the final standings, including back-to-back FCS champion North Dakota State, which received a lone vote in the AP Poll. This practice was allowed by the AP after Appalachian State upset Michigan in the 2007 season opener.
* One more note about the polls. The Coaches Poll had only 56 voters in the final poll, with the explanation that Mike MacIntyre, Sonny Dykes and Ruffin McNeill could not be reached in time to turn in their final ballots. Is this lame, or what? MacIntyre and Dykes switched jobs, but surely they have cell phones. And what's McNeill's excuse? Last we checked he's still at East Carolina.
* Is there any more questions about the SEC's dominance? Half of the conference (seven teams) is ranked in the top 23, including six in the top 13. Pac-12, Big 12 and Big Ten each placed six teams in the rankings, and the rest: Big East (3), WAC (3), MAC (3), ACC (2), CUSA (2), MWC (1), Sun Belt (1) and Notre Dame (independent).
Friday, November 6, 2009
This Could Be Shakeup Saturday
All the bowl talk could all vaporize if a few games don't go according to plan. But fear not, with the SEC and Big Ten refs carrying Blackberries to receive instant messages from their respective league offices, the "better" teams will find a way to win at the end.
Trust me.
★★★★★ GAME OF THE WEEK: LSU at Alabama, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS). The past of LSU meets its present. Nick Saban and Les Miles each led the Bayou Tigers to a BCS title, and this game may determine who gets to go for a second ring. For all the talk about a Florida-Alabama SEC title game, LSU still controls its own destiny as a victory puts it on course to win the SEC West. Also a subplot: Alabama's Mark Ingram has a chance to burnish his Heisman credentials.
★★★★ FOUR-STAR GAME: Ohio State at Penn State, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC). The Buckeyes are playing for a Rose Bowl berth and the Nittany Lions are playing for a BCS bowl berth. Those plans, unfortunately, are mutually exclusive. One team's BCS hopes will be squashed in Beaver Stadium. Terrelle Pryor will find out just how country Happy Valley is.
★★★ THREE-STAR GAME: Oregon at Stanford, 3:30 p.m. ET (FSN). The Ducks owned USC like the Trojans have never been owned before. But will they suffer a letdown in the aftermath? The Cardinal need one more win to be bowl eligible, but with Oregon, USC, Cal and Notre Dame still remaining (25-7 combined), they'll take that victory anywhere they can get it.
★★ TWO-STAR GAME: Northwestern at Iowa, noon ET (ESPN). Every week could be the week that Iowa's bubble gets burst. The Hawkeyes needed near miracles to pull out victories the past two weeks and they go to Ohio State for a make-or-break game next week. Will they get caught looking ahead or will their luck finally run out?
★ ONE-STAR GAME: Connecticut at Cincinnati, 8 p.m. ET (ABC). The grieving Huskies are still looking for their first victory after two heart-breaking losses (by an identical score of 28-24). The Bearcats have quite a gauntlet to finish the season, with West Virginia and Pittsburgh still on the schedule. They cannot afford to overlook anybody.
Trust me.
★★★★★ GAME OF THE WEEK: LSU at Alabama, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS). The past of LSU meets its present. Nick Saban and Les Miles each led the Bayou Tigers to a BCS title, and this game may determine who gets to go for a second ring. For all the talk about a Florida-Alabama SEC title game, LSU still controls its own destiny as a victory puts it on course to win the SEC West. Also a subplot: Alabama's Mark Ingram has a chance to burnish his Heisman credentials.
★★★★ FOUR-STAR GAME: Ohio State at Penn State, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC). The Buckeyes are playing for a Rose Bowl berth and the Nittany Lions are playing for a BCS bowl berth. Those plans, unfortunately, are mutually exclusive. One team's BCS hopes will be squashed in Beaver Stadium. Terrelle Pryor will find out just how country Happy Valley is.
★★★ THREE-STAR GAME: Oregon at Stanford, 3:30 p.m. ET (FSN). The Ducks owned USC like the Trojans have never been owned before. But will they suffer a letdown in the aftermath? The Cardinal need one more win to be bowl eligible, but with Oregon, USC, Cal and Notre Dame still remaining (25-7 combined), they'll take that victory anywhere they can get it.
★★ TWO-STAR GAME: Northwestern at Iowa, noon ET (ESPN). Every week could be the week that Iowa's bubble gets burst. The Hawkeyes needed near miracles to pull out victories the past two weeks and they go to Ohio State for a make-or-break game next week. Will they get caught looking ahead or will their luck finally run out?
★ ONE-STAR GAME: Connecticut at Cincinnati, 8 p.m. ET (ABC). The grieving Huskies are still looking for their first victory after two heart-breaking losses (by an identical score of 28-24). The Bearcats have quite a gauntlet to finish the season, with West Virginia and Pittsburgh still on the schedule. They cannot afford to overlook anybody.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Ten Years of BCS: 2005
Without a doubt, in the short history of the BCS, 2005 was its crowning achievement. It was its best season. It was its most controversy-free season. And it ended with its best game, in the best setting possible for a college football game - the Rose Bowl.
It was a dream season for the BCS.
USC, after winning back-to-back AP national titles, was back for an unprecedented three-peat. It had a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback who surprised everyone by returning for his senior season. It had a soon-to-be Heisman-winning running back. It had NFL first-round picks up the ying-yang on offense. But its defense was somewhat suspect.
No matter, the Trojans blew through the schedule by outscoring everybody. They won a thriller in South Bend when their Heisman combo Matt Leinart-Reggie Bush orchestrated a final second touchdown to beat Notre Dame. They escaped Fresno State when Bush produce a career worth of highlights in a single game, piling up 513 total yards. USC rolled into the Rose Bowl for the national championship with a 34-game winning streak after destroying UCLA, 66-19.
Keeping on the Trojans' heels was No. 2 Texas, led by junior quarterback Vince Young, a Heisman hopeful himself. The Longhorns were ranked right behind USC the entire season, and were a juggernaut in their own right. After getting by Ohio State in Columbus in the second game of the season, Texas scored at least 40 points and won by double-digits every game. The Longhorns claimed their date with USC by atomizing Colorado in the Big 12 title game, 70-3.
In this BCS perfect season, everything fell into place. Penn State, the only other team that might otherwise had a claim on the title game, was done in by Michigan's Mario Manningham, who caught a TD pass on the game's final play to thwart perfection for the Lions. Alabama, the last unbeaten team besides USC and Texas, bowed out of the race on Nov. 12 after a loss to LSU.
The national championship game was a classic. The Trojans jumped ahead. The Longhorns took the lead by halftime. USC regained control in the second half and was one play away from finishing off its three-peat. On fourth-and-2 at the Texas 45, with 2:13 remaining and Texas out of timeouts, the Trojans elected to go for a first down instead of punting to protect a 38-33 lead.
Bush, the Heisman winning back, was on the sideline. The Trojans loaded up the left side of the line and ran Lendale White off tackle. It was a play full of machismo. USC had run this play three times in crucial situations in this game and prevailed each time. It dared Texas to stop it.
The Longhorns did. White was stuffed a yard short and Young got the ball back. He methodically drove Texas downfield, scoring the game-winner on fourth-and-5 with 19 seconds left. Texas ended the Trojans' reign and won its first national title since 1970.
Final BCS Standings: 1. USC, 2. Texas, 3. Penn State, 4. Ohio State.
Alternative Methods -
Using 1998-2003 (BCS I) Formula: 1. USC, 2. Texas, 3. Penn State, 4. Ohio State.
Using human polls only: 1. USC, 2. Texas, 3. Penn State, 4. Ohio State.
Plus One: USC vs. Ohio State; Texas vs. Penn State.
Controversy: There was little regarding the BCS. The title game was only slightly marred by instant replay malfunction, which allowed a disputed Texas touchdown to stand in the second quarter. Young's knee was down on the play before he lateraled the ball to Selvin Young, who ran 12 yards for the score to put Texas ahead, 9-7. The play was not reviewed because the equipment wasn't working.
BCS Formula Review: After the controversy of the previous year when Texas leapfrogged California for a Rose Bowl berth, the BCS made another tweak with the formula, out of necessity. A number of AP voters were besieged by angry fans who found fault with their ballots. As a result, the AP sent a cease-and-desist letter demanding that the AP poll be removed from the BCS formula.
The BCS hastily contracted Harris Interactive to furnish a replacement poll, which debuted in 2005. The poll features over 100 voters who are former athletic directors, coaches and players, as well as members of the media. Unlike the AP poll or the coaches poll, the Harris Poll does not have a preseason poll and isn't released until four weeks into the season; and it also does not have am end-of-season final poll.
With the installment of the Harris Poll as part of the standings, the BCS formula would remain unchanged to this day. The 2009 season will be the fifth consecutive with the exact same BCS formula.
Analysis: The USC-Texas game was easily the most-watched BCS championship game and its most thrilling, thanks to the star power of both teams. And the BCS deserved credit for making it happen. Under the previous bowl regime, USC would've played (and most likely, beaten) Penn State in the Rose Bowl whereas Texas would've faced (and also beaten) either one-loss Oregon or two-loss Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl.
The 2006 Rose Bowl also marked the end of the phase I of the BCS bowl rotation. After two consecutive cycles of playing four BCS bowls with eight berths, the BCS, partly under pressure, would expand to a "double-host" setup following the 2005 season. An extra game would be added to allow more access for non-BCS teams. And a championship game was added, to be played a week after the traditional New Year's Day bowl games.
It was a dream season for the BCS.
USC, after winning back-to-back AP national titles, was back for an unprecedented three-peat. It had a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback who surprised everyone by returning for his senior season. It had a soon-to-be Heisman-winning running back. It had NFL first-round picks up the ying-yang on offense. But its defense was somewhat suspect.
No matter, the Trojans blew through the schedule by outscoring everybody. They won a thriller in South Bend when their Heisman combo Matt Leinart-Reggie Bush orchestrated a final second touchdown to beat Notre Dame. They escaped Fresno State when Bush produce a career worth of highlights in a single game, piling up 513 total yards. USC rolled into the Rose Bowl for the national championship with a 34-game winning streak after destroying UCLA, 66-19.
Keeping on the Trojans' heels was No. 2 Texas, led by junior quarterback Vince Young, a Heisman hopeful himself. The Longhorns were ranked right behind USC the entire season, and were a juggernaut in their own right. After getting by Ohio State in Columbus in the second game of the season, Texas scored at least 40 points and won by double-digits every game. The Longhorns claimed their date with USC by atomizing Colorado in the Big 12 title game, 70-3.
In this BCS perfect season, everything fell into place. Penn State, the only other team that might otherwise had a claim on the title game, was done in by Michigan's Mario Manningham, who caught a TD pass on the game's final play to thwart perfection for the Lions. Alabama, the last unbeaten team besides USC and Texas, bowed out of the race on Nov. 12 after a loss to LSU.
The national championship game was a classic. The Trojans jumped ahead. The Longhorns took the lead by halftime. USC regained control in the second half and was one play away from finishing off its three-peat. On fourth-and-2 at the Texas 45, with 2:13 remaining and Texas out of timeouts, the Trojans elected to go for a first down instead of punting to protect a 38-33 lead.
Bush, the Heisman winning back, was on the sideline. The Trojans loaded up the left side of the line and ran Lendale White off tackle. It was a play full of machismo. USC had run this play three times in crucial situations in this game and prevailed each time. It dared Texas to stop it.
The Longhorns did. White was stuffed a yard short and Young got the ball back. He methodically drove Texas downfield, scoring the game-winner on fourth-and-5 with 19 seconds left. Texas ended the Trojans' reign and won its first national title since 1970.
Final BCS Standings: 1. USC, 2. Texas, 3. Penn State, 4. Ohio State.
Alternative Methods -
Using 1998-2003 (BCS I) Formula: 1. USC, 2. Texas, 3. Penn State, 4. Ohio State.
Using human polls only: 1. USC, 2. Texas, 3. Penn State, 4. Ohio State.
Plus One: USC vs. Ohio State; Texas vs. Penn State.
Controversy: There was little regarding the BCS. The title game was only slightly marred by instant replay malfunction, which allowed a disputed Texas touchdown to stand in the second quarter. Young's knee was down on the play before he lateraled the ball to Selvin Young, who ran 12 yards for the score to put Texas ahead, 9-7. The play was not reviewed because the equipment wasn't working.
BCS Formula Review: After the controversy of the previous year when Texas leapfrogged California for a Rose Bowl berth, the BCS made another tweak with the formula, out of necessity. A number of AP voters were besieged by angry fans who found fault with their ballots. As a result, the AP sent a cease-and-desist letter demanding that the AP poll be removed from the BCS formula.
The BCS hastily contracted Harris Interactive to furnish a replacement poll, which debuted in 2005. The poll features over 100 voters who are former athletic directors, coaches and players, as well as members of the media. Unlike the AP poll or the coaches poll, the Harris Poll does not have a preseason poll and isn't released until four weeks into the season; and it also does not have am end-of-season final poll.
With the installment of the Harris Poll as part of the standings, the BCS formula would remain unchanged to this day. The 2009 season will be the fifth consecutive with the exact same BCS formula.
Analysis: The USC-Texas game was easily the most-watched BCS championship game and its most thrilling, thanks to the star power of both teams. And the BCS deserved credit for making it happen. Under the previous bowl regime, USC would've played (and most likely, beaten) Penn State in the Rose Bowl whereas Texas would've faced (and also beaten) either one-loss Oregon or two-loss Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl.
The 2006 Rose Bowl also marked the end of the phase I of the BCS bowl rotation. After two consecutive cycles of playing four BCS bowls with eight berths, the BCS, partly under pressure, would expand to a "double-host" setup following the 2005 season. An extra game would be added to allow more access for non-BCS teams. And a championship game was added, to be played a week after the traditional New Year's Day bowl games.
Saturday, November 8, 2008
Thank You, Hawkeyes!
There was rejoicing, from sea to shining sea, when Iowa's Daniel Murray booted a 31-yard field goal to beat Penn State, 24-23. The upset loss ended the Nittany Lions' bid for the BCS championship, as well as the Big Ten's hopes of appearing in the BCS title game for a third straight year.
Penn State's loss paves the way for an SEC-Big 12 title game. The way things are set up now, the winner of the Florida-Alabama SEC championship game should play whomever emerges victorious from the vicious Big 12 South. Texas Tech remains unbeaten, while both Texas and Oklahoma are still alive as each has one loss.
The odd team out continues to be USC. The Trojans may boast perhaps the nation's finest defense in this decade, but they might have to be content playing in the Rose Bowl against Penn State. USC probably will need an upset loss by the Big 12 South winner in the conference title game - or a loss by either Alabama or Florida before they meet in Atlanta for the SEC title.
So who'll be No. 1 this week? It looks like it'll still be Alabama, even if Texas Tech has amassed a more impressive resume at this point. But voters typically are reluctant to replace the top-ranked team without it losing, and since both teams will have similar computer rankings, what the voters want, the voters get.
Of course, who's No. 1 or No. 2 at this point means very little. There are still four weekends left in this college football season, and six teams still have a chance to play for the BCS title. And oh yeah, here's the parting shot: There is definitely a scenario out there for another split national championship. But we'll discuss that a bit later.
The Guru's projected BCS standings for Week 11:
1. Alabama, 2. Texas Tech, 3. Texas, 4. Florida, 5. Oklahoma, 6. Penn State, 7. USC, 8. Utah, 9. Ohio State, 10. Boise State, 11. Oklahoma State, 12. Georgia, 13. Missouri, 14. Michigan State, 15. Brigham Young.
Penn State's loss paves the way for an SEC-Big 12 title game. The way things are set up now, the winner of the Florida-Alabama SEC championship game should play whomever emerges victorious from the vicious Big 12 South. Texas Tech remains unbeaten, while both Texas and Oklahoma are still alive as each has one loss.
The odd team out continues to be USC. The Trojans may boast perhaps the nation's finest defense in this decade, but they might have to be content playing in the Rose Bowl against Penn State. USC probably will need an upset loss by the Big 12 South winner in the conference title game - or a loss by either Alabama or Florida before they meet in Atlanta for the SEC title.
So who'll be No. 1 this week? It looks like it'll still be Alabama, even if Texas Tech has amassed a more impressive resume at this point. But voters typically are reluctant to replace the top-ranked team without it losing, and since both teams will have similar computer rankings, what the voters want, the voters get.
Of course, who's No. 1 or No. 2 at this point means very little. There are still four weekends left in this college football season, and six teams still have a chance to play for the BCS title. And oh yeah, here's the parting shot: There is definitely a scenario out there for another split national championship. But we'll discuss that a bit later.
The Guru's projected BCS standings for Week 11:
1. Alabama, 2. Texas Tech, 3. Texas, 4. Florida, 5. Oklahoma, 6. Penn State, 7. USC, 8. Utah, 9. Ohio State, 10. Boise State, 11. Oklahoma State, 12. Georgia, 13. Missouri, 14. Michigan State, 15. Brigham Young.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
The Guru's Report Card
The Guru takes his work very seriously. And unlike our politicians, I'm all about accountability. So lately, I've had readers asking, just how accurate are you?
Well, good question. And you know what? I'd like to know that myself. So the Guru dug up the archives and put together a little chart (yes, spreadsheets are addictive, so don't try this at home), and voila! I've got myself a scorecard.
There's no need to get too much into the methodology here. We all know what a report card looks like. It seems that the Guru is an A-student, but when he's not, he got a royal spanking - from the readers - just as he did from his teachers when he was in school. So here it is:
| Accuracy | Perfect Top 5 | Note | |
| 2006 | | | |
| Final | 84% | | Only Top 10 Projected |
| | | | |
| 2007 | | | |
| Week 1 | 93% | YES | |
| Week 2 | 83% | | Worst Performance Ever; Missed #2 |
| Week 3 | 90% | YES | |
| Week 4 | 93% | YES | |
| Week 5 | 94% | YES | |
| Week 6 | 99% | YES | Best Performance Ever; Perfect Top 10 |
| Week 7 | 90% | | |
| Final | 95% | | Perfect (5-for-5) on BCS Bowl Matchups |
| | | | |
| 2008 | | | |
| Week 1 | 90% | | |
| Week 2 | 97% | YES | |
| Week 3 | 90% | | Missed #2 - Second Time Ever |
Now, you see that in the Guru's entire tenure, I've had one disastrous week - last year's Week 2: When I was out of town attending a wedding. I had a terrible cold and my laptop didn't have all the data I needed, yadi yada ... anyway, I ended up projecting LSU as No. 2 and it ended up to be Boston College.
History repeated itself last week - for the second time since I started the projections, I failed to nail the top 2. Texas Tech got enough of a boost to sneak past Penn State. While I had no doubt that Tech would've eventually ascended to No. 2 - could've been as soon as this week - I didn't think the Red Raiders would get by Penn State immediately after their first meaningful victory of the year.
I bring this up because this is where the BCS will have huge problems. One of the reasons that Tech got past Penn State is that it went from being 13th in the Billingsley Report to No. 1. Imagine that! A 12-spot jump over one game! The first week of the BCS standings, Billingsley had Tech 19th. That sort of quantum leap defies logic.
Now, Billingsley, like all but one of the six computers (Colley Matrix is the exception) does not make available the exact methodology of his system. You can read it here what he wants you to know. But his "computer rating" is without a doubt the most biased, with many of his personal preferences deliberately installed in the "formula." Even he will tell you that his "rating" is more like a one-man poll (the last one on the page, but you should read the whole thing, it's quite entertaining, actually).
Each week, out of every team's six computer scores, the highest and the lowest are discarded. Billingsley consistently has about 40-50% of his numbers thrown out. Why? Because his system, simply put, is not a pure computer formula. He relies heavily on a preseason ranking that is admittedly biased and traditional football powers always get preferential treatment. Check out where he has USC ranked throughout this season, in relation to where the Trojans were on the other computers.
So what's the purpose of this Billingsley rant? What does it have to do with my own scorecard?
The point is this: accountability. It's high time for the BCS to require transparency from the computers - as well as the polls. If the computer ratings are proprietary, then at least they should be audited. And the poll results should be available to the public, every week, just like the AP. It's a joke that the Harris voters and coaches don't need to be accountable until the end of the season.
Since this is the system we have to live with and there are lots at stake, it's beyond comprehension that the BCS is run like a mom-and-pop shop ... wait, that's an insult to mom-and-pop shops that are responsive to their customers' needs and reactions. It cannot - and should not - continue to tolerate and allow numbers that seemingly come off a dart board to decide who gets to play for the national championship.
Sunday, November 2, 2008
The Big Campaign After November 4
After Texas' literal last-second loss to Texas Tech, the BCS standings underwent another dramatic makeover. Now, the battle lines are officially drawn between this season's two top conferences.
Somebody is going to get left out in the cold.
If as expected, Penn State wins its remaining three games, the Nittany Lions will end up in Miami playing for the BCS championship - unless both Alabama and Texas Tech stay unbeaten. If both of them lose once, then Penn State will be facing a one-loss conference champion for the title.
Which one?
Would it be one-loss Florida, or one-loss Texas or maybe a one-loss Oklahoma team that didn't even make it to the Big 12 title game? While the Big 12 looks to have the upperhand at the moment, with three teams among the top six in the latest BCS standings, Florida, at No. 5, actually is quite primed to make a quantum leap.
The Gators' best friend is Alabama. Florida needs the Crimson Tide to stay unbeaten all the way until the SEC championship game. Should the Gators knock off - or even rout - the top-ranked team in the BCS standings, there's no doubt that they would leapfrog all other one-loss teams, all the way up to at least No. 2, and the coveted spot in the BCS title game.
The Big 12, meanwhile, still has a few weeks to sort out its own business. Right now, however, only Texas Tech controls its own destiny. But with next week's game against Oklahoma State and a Nov. 22 trip to Norman still on the slate, the Red Raiders have clinched nothing yet. The Big 12's tiebreaker might need to be summoned to determine the winner of the South Division - and the BCS standings just might be the final arbiter in making that decision (which is hardly the design or purpose of the standings, but that's a topic for another day).
Should Tech lose one of its remaining games, then the SEC champion will have the inside track to the BCS title game. That's why you will see an all-out campaign by both the Big 12 and SEC - not on the football field, but in the media - to state their respective cases for the voters in the coaches poll and Harris poll. After all, the voters at the end will decide who goes to the BCS title game since the current BCS formula is heavily tilted in the direction of human votes.
The Guru will provide a more detailed "Rooting Guide" later in the week, but in the meantime, this is the BCS pecking order for the remainder of the season:
1. Alabama.
2. Texas Tech
3. Penn State - if either Alabama or Texas Tech loses, Penn State is in the championship game
4. Florida - if Texas Tech or Penn State loses, Florida is in if it defeats an unbeaten Alabama in the SEC title game.
5. Texas - needs a Tech loss to either Oklahoma State or Oklahoma and win the Big 12 South via the tiebreaker, a Penn State loss OR an Alabama loss before the SEC title game.
6. Oklahoma - needs to beat Texas Tech and a Texas loss in the Big 12 title game to Missouri, a Penn State loss OR a one-loss Alabama or two-loss Florida winning the SEC championship
7. USC - needs TWO of the following: A Penn State loss; a one-loss Alabama or two-loss Florida winning the SEC championship; Missouri winning the Big 12 title game while both Oklahoma and Texas have two losses
8. Oklahoma State - just don't see it happening so I won't waste anybody's time.
Confused? Well, that's the point, isn't it? If the BCS is so easy to decipher, how would the Guru stay in business?
Seriously, however, expect to be bombarded with the SEC-vs.-Big 12 talking points the rest of the season. CBS will shamelessly campaign for the SEC as it did so wonderfully in 2006. ESPN will try to appear somewhat neutral though it might tilt a bit in the SEC's favor as it has a bigger contract with the SEC.
The Big 12 had better find some media allies - Fox Sports Net alone won't do - and a good ad firm, quick, to get the word out and catch the voters' attention. Otherwise, it risks looking like John McCain come December 7.
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