College football now has a true free agency market, as players can move freely from one FBS team to another without having to sit out a season per NCAA rules. The graduate transfer rule has been a godsend for teams in desperate need for a quick fix.
And it's of little surprise that the graduate transfer market is dominated by quarterbacks. There are two simple reasons for this: 1) Quarterbacks, generally the smartest guys on the field, are most likely to graduate in four years or even a semester or two early, to take advantage of the rule. 2) An upperclassman quarterback with playing experience is much more likely to immediately help a team than a player at any other position.
The graduate transfer rule actually has been around since 2006, but in its first five seasons only 11 quarterbacks took advantage of it. That all changed after 2011, when Russell Wilson, who had a mostly pedestrian career at N.C. State, led Wisconsin to the Big Ten title after finishing his college career as a Badger. After that, the grad transfer market boomed.
After Wilson, who since went on to lead the Seattle Seahawks to back-to-back Super Bowl appearances, a flurry of quarterbacks took advantage of the rule and jumped ships. Last season alone 15 quarterbacks went to new schools and played immediately, and five of them led their respective teams to bowl appearances.
This year's market isn't as busy but is more intriguing because of the presence of big names that are available. Everett Golson, who led Notre Dame to the 2012 BCS Championship Game, just landed at Florida State this week and will be vying for the job to replace Jameis Winston. Jake Rudock, Iowa's former starting QB, jumped at a chance to play for Michigan's new coach Jim Harbaugh. Jeff Driskel, the face of the ill-fated Will Muschamp regime at Florida, has landed at Louisiana Tech.
But the most intriguing free agent is still on the market. Braxton Miller still has a couple of months to decide whether he wants to return to Ohio State or go lead another program in 2015. Miller was a preseason Heisman candidate in 2014 before a shoulder injury in camp force him to miss the entire season. He has since been usurped by both J.T. Barrett and Cardale Jones, who led the Buckeyes to the inaugural College Football Playoff championship. Would Miller, who already graduated, return to Ohio State to be merely the, gasp, third stringer?
So far, Miller has decided to stay put, as did Stanford's Kevin Hogan. But the transfer window remains open all the way until fall camp in August and more than a handful of quarterbacks are still deciding their destinations.
The question, then, must be asked. Does a grad transfer QB really help a program?
A former starting quarterback takes advantage of the grad transfer rule typically for two reasons: 1) He lost his job either because of injury, substandard performance or disagreement with his coaches; 2) He's not good enough to be a high draft pick in the NFL.
Of all the grad transfer quarterbacks since the rule was enacted, only Wilson has had any kind of an NFL career. And he was only a third-round pick and not nearly as highly-regarded coming into the draft as fellow QBs Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Ryan Tannehill.
Since a grad transfer QB typically only has a year (at most two) of eligibility left, he can't be anything more than a quick fix. Most of the time, it's a bridge-the-gap situation where a coach isn't quite willing to trust a true freshman or a former backup with little playing experience.
Some of the quarterbacks did post respectable numbers and led their teams to winning seasons:
- Ben Mauk led Cincinnati to a 10-3 record in 2007 after transferring from Wake Forest
- Tyler Murphy led Boston College to a 7-6 record in 2014 after transferring from Florida
- Clint Trickett actually started 18 games over two seasons (2013-14) at West Virginia after transferring from Florida State
Those are exceptions, however, as many more grad transfers failed to pan out. Some managed to help torpedoing an already floundering program (Dayne Crist, Notre Dame to Kansas; Drew Allen, Oklahoma to Syracuse) while others simply failed to win the job even against mediocre competition (Danny O'Brien, Maryland to Wisconsin; Jake Heaps, Kansas to Miami).
This season promises to bring more scrutiny to the grad transfer QB market simply because of the presence of household names at marquee programs. Besides Golson, Rudock, Driskel and possibly Miller, there's still Jacob Coker, who left FSU to go to Alabama last season only to lose out to Blake Sims. He's back for his final year of eligibility to fight for the right to start for Nick Saban and Lane Kiffin.
But the rule appears here to stay despite some new opposition within the ranks of college administrators. The NCAA, already under siege from multiple lawsuits challenging its authority, can ill afford to rescind whatever little freedom it's granted the student-athletes.
And coaches, being what they are, will try to exploit every rule to their advantage, so the grad transfer market will only become more popular even given its so-far pretty paltry output. They should just heed this warning: Buyer Beware.
Showing posts with label Notre Dame. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Notre Dame. Show all posts
Thursday, May 21, 2015
Monday, January 12, 2015
What Is the Real Magic Number? Try 6
The first College Football Playoff is rightly declared a success. After Ohio State's emphatic 42-20 victory over Oregon, we can finally proclaim a national champion in college football that's more substantial than mythical.
Well, almost. TCU is still out there and a legitimate argument can be made that it was unfairly excluded. The Horned Frogs likely won't finish worse than third in the final AP Poll, maybe even getting a few votes for second.
That's why well before all the golden confetti streamed down from the rafters at Jerry Jones' football palace Monday night, there was already plenty of talk about expanding the playoff. We're only in the first year of a 12-year pact for a four-team playoff, but there's already clamoring for an eight-team playoff, or even a 16-team playoff.
It's not gonna happen. Not anytime soon. And probably not going to be eight teams and certainly never 16 teams.
College football's postseason attendance scheme is like moving small cities from place to place. Each major bowl game counts on travel and displacements of up to 50,000 people. And as this year's playoff has already proved, to make those same people take two trips are difficult and hence the empty seats at the playoff bowl games and low prices on the secondary ticket markets.
But that's not to say we'll never expand beyond four teams. In fact, there's a plausible scenario for expansion, even though it probably won't happen before the 2020 season, about halfway through the current contract.
A six-team playoff is imminently achievable and reasonable.
The biggest gripe against the current four-team playoff is that there are five power conferences. In this year's case, Big 12's co-champions TCU and Baylor were both left out. Another complaint is that within this scheme no team outside of the major conferences (and Notre Dame) would ever get a chance to play for the national title.
With six teams, all five major conference champions would be guaranteed a spot with room for one more deserving team, which could come out of the Group of Five conferences or be a non-champion of the Power Five. This would greatly reduce the burden on the selection committee as its main job becomes picking one team to add to the playoff field.
This arrangement would not dilute the meaning of the regular season but in fact enhance it. Teams would be encouraged to play tough non-conference opponents knowing that it won't hurt their chances of making the playoff as long as they win their conference. And in all probability the one at-large team in the playoff field would be one that's had a challenging schedule instead of one that's filled it with cream puffs.
As for the attendance issue, this could be easily remedied by playing the first two playoff games on campus sites, with the top two seeds earning a bye. These "quarterfinals" matching teams seeded third through sixth would be played on the Saturday after conference title games (now reserved for Army-Navy), with the winners advancing to the New Years' Six semifinal games and losers still earning a place in other NY6 bowl games.
Just as the BCS altered its format halfway through its 16-year existence by going to the double-host model that created the non-bowl championship game, the CFP can easily adopt the new six-team format without making many fundamental changes to its current scheme. Bowl pairings can still be announced on the first Sunday of December, with the New Years' Six lineup to be finalized a week later.
This idea should be embraced by the everyone in the industry. ESPN, after being astonished by the high ratings of this season's semifinal games, would love to add two more games. Bowl-game host committees can breathe easy as this doesn't further disrupt their system. University administrators probably won't have an issue with the opportunity to host an extra home game that's a guaranteed sellout.
So will the expansion happen? Yes, but it will take time. Unlike the NFL or any other professional sports leagues, college football is run by a large collection of people that includes school presidents, athletic directors, conference commissioners and TV executives. New ideas are not going on the agenda tomorrow or in the immediate future.
The next two championship game sites have been selected so for certain nothing will change before the 2017 season. Also the power brokers will want to see how things shake out for awhile before signing off on any deviation from the original plan.
But change is coming, you just need to wait a few years. And remember, six should be the magic number.
Well, almost. TCU is still out there and a legitimate argument can be made that it was unfairly excluded. The Horned Frogs likely won't finish worse than third in the final AP Poll, maybe even getting a few votes for second.
That's why well before all the golden confetti streamed down from the rafters at Jerry Jones' football palace Monday night, there was already plenty of talk about expanding the playoff. We're only in the first year of a 12-year pact for a four-team playoff, but there's already clamoring for an eight-team playoff, or even a 16-team playoff.
It's not gonna happen. Not anytime soon. And probably not going to be eight teams and certainly never 16 teams.
College football's postseason attendance scheme is like moving small cities from place to place. Each major bowl game counts on travel and displacements of up to 50,000 people. And as this year's playoff has already proved, to make those same people take two trips are difficult and hence the empty seats at the playoff bowl games and low prices on the secondary ticket markets.
But that's not to say we'll never expand beyond four teams. In fact, there's a plausible scenario for expansion, even though it probably won't happen before the 2020 season, about halfway through the current contract.
A six-team playoff is imminently achievable and reasonable.
The biggest gripe against the current four-team playoff is that there are five power conferences. In this year's case, Big 12's co-champions TCU and Baylor were both left out. Another complaint is that within this scheme no team outside of the major conferences (and Notre Dame) would ever get a chance to play for the national title.
With six teams, all five major conference champions would be guaranteed a spot with room for one more deserving team, which could come out of the Group of Five conferences or be a non-champion of the Power Five. This would greatly reduce the burden on the selection committee as its main job becomes picking one team to add to the playoff field.
This arrangement would not dilute the meaning of the regular season but in fact enhance it. Teams would be encouraged to play tough non-conference opponents knowing that it won't hurt their chances of making the playoff as long as they win their conference. And in all probability the one at-large team in the playoff field would be one that's had a challenging schedule instead of one that's filled it with cream puffs.
As for the attendance issue, this could be easily remedied by playing the first two playoff games on campus sites, with the top two seeds earning a bye. These "quarterfinals" matching teams seeded third through sixth would be played on the Saturday after conference title games (now reserved for Army-Navy), with the winners advancing to the New Years' Six semifinal games and losers still earning a place in other NY6 bowl games.
Just as the BCS altered its format halfway through its 16-year existence by going to the double-host model that created the non-bowl championship game, the CFP can easily adopt the new six-team format without making many fundamental changes to its current scheme. Bowl pairings can still be announced on the first Sunday of December, with the New Years' Six lineup to be finalized a week later.
This idea should be embraced by the everyone in the industry. ESPN, after being astonished by the high ratings of this season's semifinal games, would love to add two more games. Bowl-game host committees can breathe easy as this doesn't further disrupt their system. University administrators probably won't have an issue with the opportunity to host an extra home game that's a guaranteed sellout.
So will the expansion happen? Yes, but it will take time. Unlike the NFL or any other professional sports leagues, college football is run by a large collection of people that includes school presidents, athletic directors, conference commissioners and TV executives. New ideas are not going on the agenda tomorrow or in the immediate future.
The next two championship game sites have been selected so for certain nothing will change before the 2017 season. Also the power brokers will want to see how things shake out for awhile before signing off on any deviation from the original plan.
But change is coming, you just need to wait a few years. And remember, six should be the magic number.
Monday, November 24, 2014
Conference Call on Playoff Field
With just two weeks left in the regular season, the field of contenders for the four playoff spots is shrinking fast. After Saturday, there are only 16 teams still mathematically alive for their respective conference championships. And of those 16, maybe half of them have a legitimate shot of being part of the inaugural College Football Playoff.
While winning the conference championship is not necessarily a prerequisite of qualifying for the playoff, the committee did list that as a major factor in its selection process. Of all the remaining contenders, maybe just one - Mississippi State - has a shot at making the playoff without winning its conference.
There probably will not be significant changes in the committee's rankings this week other than that No. 8 Ole Miss will be tumbling down after a 30-0 wipeout loss to Arkansas. So we'll take a good look at those final 16 teams and dissect their prospects:
Teams with no chance
Wisconsin (Big Ten), Minnesota (Big Ten), Georgia Tech (ACC): The Minnesota-Wisconsin winner as well as Georgia Tech are guaranteed a place in their respective championship games. But they're too far down the standings and have weak resumes with killer losses (Wisconsin to Northwestern, Minnesota to Illinois, Georgia Tech to North Carolina) to have any shot.
Teams with slim chance
Kansas State (Big 12), Arizona (Pac-12), Arizona State (Pac-12): These three two-loss teams are hovering around the low-teens but all have significant obstacles to overcome. K-State can share the Big 12 title if it wins out, but having lost to TCU and with an extra nonconference loss, it's unlikely to leapfrog the Frogs in the rankings. The Territorial Cup winner can only claim the Pac-12 South with a UCLA loss to Stanford, but even if that team beats Oregon in the Pac-12 title game it needs lots of teams in front of it to suffer unexpected losses to get into the top four.
Teams need a lot of help
Georgia (SEC), Missouri (SEC): Mizzou wins the SEC East with a victory over resurgent Arkansas, otherwise, the division title goes to Georgia. But Besides having to knock off a heavily-favored SEC West winner (Alabama or Mississippi State), they both already have two losses including a very bad one each (Georgia to Florida, Mizzou to Indiana). A win by the East winner in the conference title game may very well cost the SEC a spot in the playoff.
Teams need some help
Baylor (Big 12), TCU (Big 12), Ohio State (Big Ten), UCLA (Pac-12): All of those teams can win at least a share (in the cases of TCU and Baylor) of their respective conference titles on their own, but they don't control their own fate when it comes to the playoff. Only one of those teams will make it to the Final Four if the top three teams win out. Despite last week's No. 7 ranking, Baylor might have the best shot as it's likely to jump both TCU and Ohio State with a final game victory over Kansas State to finish 11-1.
Team needs Auburn's help
Mississippi State (SEC): An Auburn upset of Alabama in the Iron Bowl puts the Bulldogs back in the SEC title game—if they defeat slumping Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl. Without a division (and conference) title, they probably will end up 11-1 with nowhere (in the playoff) to go. While it's currently ranked No. 4, Miss State is certain to lose ground in the final two weeks of the season to a one-loss champion from another conference since its resume is not good enough to trump that purportedly important consideration.
Teams need no help
Alabama (SEC), Oregon (Pac-12), Florida State (ACC): Win out, and they're in the playoff, simple as that. Never mind the committee's seeming hostility, the Seminoles will get a chance to defend their title if they beat Florida and Georgia Tech in the next two games.
Other Fun Facts
* Is this the week the committee finally puts a group-of-five team (or two) in the rankings after having snubbed them the past three weeks? There are just 24 power-five teams with three or fewer losses and Duke is certainly not going to be ranked. That means either Marshall and/or Colorado State will break through or up to a pair of four-loss teams will be ranked.
* Georgia Tech should be a lock for the Orange Bowl if it beats Georgia in the Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate. Other than playoff-bound FSU, there are no other ACC teams with fewer than three losses. Of course, the Jackets are guaranteed an Orange Bowl berth if they upset the 'Noles in the ACC title game.
* Notre Dame and BYU are both 7-4 and neither has a prayer of getting into a New Year's Six bowl. But even if their respective seasons had gone much better, access to the playoff and the best bowls still will be difficult for them under the new regime. With Navy set to join the American next season, we finally could be witnessing the death of independents at the FBS level.
While winning the conference championship is not necessarily a prerequisite of qualifying for the playoff, the committee did list that as a major factor in its selection process. Of all the remaining contenders, maybe just one - Mississippi State - has a shot at making the playoff without winning its conference.
There probably will not be significant changes in the committee's rankings this week other than that No. 8 Ole Miss will be tumbling down after a 30-0 wipeout loss to Arkansas. So we'll take a good look at those final 16 teams and dissect their prospects:
Teams with no chance
Wisconsin (Big Ten), Minnesota (Big Ten), Georgia Tech (ACC): The Minnesota-Wisconsin winner as well as Georgia Tech are guaranteed a place in their respective championship games. But they're too far down the standings and have weak resumes with killer losses (Wisconsin to Northwestern, Minnesota to Illinois, Georgia Tech to North Carolina) to have any shot.
Teams with slim chance
Kansas State (Big 12), Arizona (Pac-12), Arizona State (Pac-12): These three two-loss teams are hovering around the low-teens but all have significant obstacles to overcome. K-State can share the Big 12 title if it wins out, but having lost to TCU and with an extra nonconference loss, it's unlikely to leapfrog the Frogs in the rankings. The Territorial Cup winner can only claim the Pac-12 South with a UCLA loss to Stanford, but even if that team beats Oregon in the Pac-12 title game it needs lots of teams in front of it to suffer unexpected losses to get into the top four.
Teams need a lot of help
Georgia (SEC), Missouri (SEC): Mizzou wins the SEC East with a victory over resurgent Arkansas, otherwise, the division title goes to Georgia. But Besides having to knock off a heavily-favored SEC West winner (Alabama or Mississippi State), they both already have two losses including a very bad one each (Georgia to Florida, Mizzou to Indiana). A win by the East winner in the conference title game may very well cost the SEC a spot in the playoff.
Teams need some help
Baylor (Big 12), TCU (Big 12), Ohio State (Big Ten), UCLA (Pac-12): All of those teams can win at least a share (in the cases of TCU and Baylor) of their respective conference titles on their own, but they don't control their own fate when it comes to the playoff. Only one of those teams will make it to the Final Four if the top three teams win out. Despite last week's No. 7 ranking, Baylor might have the best shot as it's likely to jump both TCU and Ohio State with a final game victory over Kansas State to finish 11-1.
Team needs Auburn's help
Mississippi State (SEC): An Auburn upset of Alabama in the Iron Bowl puts the Bulldogs back in the SEC title game—if they defeat slumping Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl. Without a division (and conference) title, they probably will end up 11-1 with nowhere (in the playoff) to go. While it's currently ranked No. 4, Miss State is certain to lose ground in the final two weeks of the season to a one-loss champion from another conference since its resume is not good enough to trump that purportedly important consideration.
Teams need no help
Alabama (SEC), Oregon (Pac-12), Florida State (ACC): Win out, and they're in the playoff, simple as that. Never mind the committee's seeming hostility, the Seminoles will get a chance to defend their title if they beat Florida and Georgia Tech in the next two games.
Other Fun Facts
* Is this the week the committee finally puts a group-of-five team (or two) in the rankings after having snubbed them the past three weeks? There are just 24 power-five teams with three or fewer losses and Duke is certainly not going to be ranked. That means either Marshall and/or Colorado State will break through or up to a pair of four-loss teams will be ranked.
* Georgia Tech should be a lock for the Orange Bowl if it beats Georgia in the Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate. Other than playoff-bound FSU, there are no other ACC teams with fewer than three losses. Of course, the Jackets are guaranteed an Orange Bowl berth if they upset the 'Noles in the ACC title game.
* Notre Dame and BYU are both 7-4 and neither has a prayer of getting into a New Year's Six bowl. But even if their respective seasons had gone much better, access to the playoff and the best bowls still will be difficult for them under the new regime. With Navy set to join the American next season, we finally could be witnessing the death of independents at the FBS level.
Tuesday, November 11, 2014
Nobody Should Get Very Comfortable Just Yet
The selection committee's third release of its rankings proved to be its most interesting and revealing. There is strong indication that the members indeed are evaluating the teams freshly each week and not following the poll practice where teams only slide up and down out of fixed positions from the previous week.
That's good. It makes for an intriguing final month of the season for the fewer than a dozen contenders still remaining in the playoff hunt.
Here are the five things that come immediately to mind based on the committee's new rankings:
SEC is looking at one bid
Forget two bids in the four-team field. The SEC will need to hang on to its one bid, as a two-loss conference champion may very well be shut out of the playoff. Despite being the top-ranked team for three weeks in a row, Mississippi State may be finished with just one loss if it does not win the SEC West because of a weak nonconference schedule.
Big Ten is in big trouble
Ohio State's big win over Michigan State is good for the Buckeyes but very bad for their conference. OSU will not be able to play its way into the playoff without help as the committee has a very low regard for the Big Ten. The Buckeyes' best remaining opponent could be Nebraska—if they meet in the B1G title game—and the Huskers are ranked only 16th despite having just one loss.
TCU shouldn't get too comfortable
While the Horned Frogs made a celebrated jump into the top four this week, this stay is by no means permanent. Baylor still has a chance to get past TCU as it has better opponents coming up, including the regular-season finale against Kansas State.
Since the two teams share the same foes in 10 of their 11 games against FBS opponents, TCU should root hard for Minnesota, as its victory over the now-ranked Gophers is a far better scalp than Baylor's win over Buffalo.
Committee is sending a message about schedule
That Baylor is in its current predicament owes a great deal to its awful nonconference schedule. Conversely, that UCLA is ranked 11th can be traced to its decision to play two power-five opponents in its three OOC games. A third example is Notre Dame, where we learned that while it's good to schedule tough opponents, you'll need to beat them to get credit.
Where's group-of-five?
For a second consecutive week, the committee did not bother to put a group-of-five team in the rankings, leaving the access bowl picture very murky. But with the introduction of Minnesota at No. 25, one must wonder if leaving Marshall out at this point makes sense. As a direct comparison, the Herd performed better than the Gophers as they both beat Middle Tennessee at home. Marshall won by 25 (49-24) whereas Minnesota won by 11 (35-24).
* No group-of-five team is ranked by the committee.
Explanation of rankings
BCS rankings are a simulation of the BCS formula used from 2004-2013 with two exceptions: The AP poll is used in place of the Harris Poll, and Sagarin and Massey rankings are their native systems instead of the non-MOV version used for the BCS.
CFP mock rankings are published weekly at Bleacher Report, with components including polls, computers, strength of schedule and conference championships. The full rankings are here.
That's good. It makes for an intriguing final month of the season for the fewer than a dozen contenders still remaining in the playoff hunt.
Here are the five things that come immediately to mind based on the committee's new rankings:
SEC is looking at one bid
Forget two bids in the four-team field. The SEC will need to hang on to its one bid, as a two-loss conference champion may very well be shut out of the playoff. Despite being the top-ranked team for three weeks in a row, Mississippi State may be finished with just one loss if it does not win the SEC West because of a weak nonconference schedule.
Big Ten is in big trouble
Ohio State's big win over Michigan State is good for the Buckeyes but very bad for their conference. OSU will not be able to play its way into the playoff without help as the committee has a very low regard for the Big Ten. The Buckeyes' best remaining opponent could be Nebraska—if they meet in the B1G title game—and the Huskers are ranked only 16th despite having just one loss.
TCU shouldn't get too comfortable
While the Horned Frogs made a celebrated jump into the top four this week, this stay is by no means permanent. Baylor still has a chance to get past TCU as it has better opponents coming up, including the regular-season finale against Kansas State.
Since the two teams share the same foes in 10 of their 11 games against FBS opponents, TCU should root hard for Minnesota, as its victory over the now-ranked Gophers is a far better scalp than Baylor's win over Buffalo.
Committee is sending a message about schedule
That Baylor is in its current predicament owes a great deal to its awful nonconference schedule. Conversely, that UCLA is ranked 11th can be traced to its decision to play two power-five opponents in its three OOC games. A third example is Notre Dame, where we learned that while it's good to schedule tough opponents, you'll need to beat them to get credit.
Where's group-of-five?
For a second consecutive week, the committee did not bother to put a group-of-five team in the rankings, leaving the access bowl picture very murky. But with the introduction of Minnesota at No. 25, one must wonder if leaving Marshall out at this point makes sense. As a direct comparison, the Herd performed better than the Gophers as they both beat Middle Tennessee at home. Marshall won by 25 (49-24) whereas Minnesota won by 11 (35-24).
| CFP Rank | Team | BCS | B/R Mock | AP | Coaches |
| 1` | Mississippi State | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | Oregon | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | Florida State | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 4 | TCU | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 5 | Alabama | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 6 | Arizona State | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| 7 | Baylor | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| 8 | Ohio State | 10 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| 9 | Auburn | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| 10 | Ole Miss | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| 11 | UCLA | 12 | 12 | 14 | 15 |
| 12 | Michigan State | 13 | 14 | 12 | 12 |
| 13 | Kansas State | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| 14 | Arizona | 19 | 15 | 17 | 18 |
| 15 | Georgia | 15 | 18 | 16 | 14 |
| 16 | Nebraska | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| 17 | LSU | 17 | 17 | 20 | 20 |
| 18 | Notre Dame | 16 | 16 | 15 | 16 |
| 19 | Clemson | 18 | 19 | 18 | 17 |
| 20 | Wisconsin | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 |
| 21 | Duke | 20 | 20 | 19 | 19 |
| 22 | Georgia Tech | 25 | 21 | 24 | 23 |
| 23 | Utah | NR | 24 | 25 | 28 |
| 24 | Texas A&M | 23 | 23 | 27 | 30 |
| 25 | Minnesota | NR | 31 | 30 | 27 |
| NR | Marshall | 21 | 25 | 21 | 21 |
| NR | Colorado State | 24 | 30 | 23 | 25 |
Explanation of rankings
BCS rankings are a simulation of the BCS formula used from 2004-2013 with two exceptions: The AP poll is used in place of the Harris Poll, and Sagarin and Massey rankings are their native systems instead of the non-MOV version used for the BCS.
CFP mock rankings are published weekly at Bleacher Report, with components including polls, computers, strength of schedule and conference championships. The full rankings are here.
Monday, November 10, 2014
TCU or Baylor, That's the Question
TCU or Baylor?
With the playoff picture clearing up after last Saturday's quasi-elimination games, this question looms large for the selection committee. After next week's Alabama-Mississippi State game, we should have an undisputed Top 3 teams with the final spot up for grabs between the two Big 12 contenders.
By any reasonable measurement, TCU is ahead of Baylor. The Horned Frogs even outplayed the Bears for better than 80 percent of their head-to-head matchup. But the problem is, Baylor did have those amazing last 12 minutes in which they scored 24 points to win 61-58.
For now, it's fine for the committee to put TCU ahead of Baylor—and it's expected to do so this week. But what if both teams finish 11-1, with Baylor beating Kansas State on the last day of the season. Will the committee finally flip the teams, then? Or does it keep TCU ahead because head-to-head is merely one of the many considerations, as chairman Jeff Long stated last week?
Both teams will be favored to win their respective remaining three games. And if they both come through, this likely will be the committee's most difficult decision come Selection Sunday.
THE RANKINGS
The Playoff Teams
1. Mississippi State
While a loss at Alabama on Saturday won't mathematically eliminate the Bulldogs from playoff contention, it likely would end their dream season. With its weak nonconference schedule, it's highly doubtful that MSU would get into the playoff field without winning the SEC West. So yes, it's pretty much a do-or-die game.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Sugar Bowl
2. Florida State
The Seminoles continue to cruise along despite a weak schedule and very low computer rankings. But none of that matters as long as they win out. In fact, should Mississippi State lose next week, FSU will ascend to the No. 1 spot and be poised to grab the top seed in the playoff.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Rose Bowl
3. Oregon
The Ducks survived another brutal Pac-12 under-the-lights drama, thanks in part to a terribly bone-headed play by Utah early in the game. But mounting injury problems will cause them to limp toward the finish line. Oregon has about four weeks to get healthy before its next real challenge in the Pac-12 title game.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Rose Bowl
5. TCU
The Frogs have the final playoff spot now but by no means do they control their own fate. They may win their final three games impressively only to be turned out by the committee because of their loss to Baylor. All TCU can do is win and wait.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Sugar Bowl
The First Four Out
4. Alabama
After having survived Death Valley, the Tide face another must-win game as they host No. 1 Mississippi State. The path is clear for them, though—win out and they're in the playoff. And having all three of their remaining games at home should help.
Projected bowl: Cotton Bowl
6. Arizona State
The Sun Devils scored their most impressive win of the season by knocking Notre Dame out of the playoff chase, but that win does not help them in the Pac-12 South race. A loss in the Territorial Cup likely will hand the division title to arch rival Arizona, or the UCLA-USC winner, depending how the tough division shakes out in the next three weeks.
Projected bowl: Fiesta Bowl
7. Baylor
There's not much the Bears can do about their weak nonconference schedule, but they can see a path to the playoff field if they score a ton of style points the rest of the way. For Baylor, it may all come down to the season finale against Kansas State and also just how much the committee values head-to-head results.
Projected bowl: Cotton Bowl
8. Ohio State
The Buckeyes' resounding win at East Lansing puts them in the driver's seat for the Big Ten title, which might ultimately be the consolation prize. The weakness of the league, in addition to Ohio State's awful loss to Virginia Tech—by far the worst one among all one-loss teams—might be just too much to overcome.
Projected bowl: Fiesta Bowl
Other Fun Facts
* Realistically, there are just 12 teams still in contention for a playoff spot, and three of those are two-loss teams (Auburn, Ole Miss and UCLA) who all need help just to win their respective divisions. Nebraska can win out and claim the Big Ten title, but like Ohio State, its path to the playoff field is very much blocked by teams from the other four power conferences.
* Will the committee continue to keep Marshall, or other group-of-five teams, out of the rankings? It'll likely have to tip its hand at some point as we'll see several three-loss teams in this week's rankings. Colorado State might have the best resume so far among group-of-five contenders, but it can't win the Mountain West without Boise State losing at least another game.
* Notre Dame's loss to Arizona State eliminated the Irish from playoff contention, and perhaps also a spot in a New Year's Six bowl as well. Unlike in the bowl era and the BCS era where the Irish often received preferential treatment from individual bowls, in the CFP the committee decides on all 12 participants for the major bowls. Based on merit Notre Dame for now is headed to a minor bowl game.
With the playoff picture clearing up after last Saturday's quasi-elimination games, this question looms large for the selection committee. After next week's Alabama-Mississippi State game, we should have an undisputed Top 3 teams with the final spot up for grabs between the two Big 12 contenders.
By any reasonable measurement, TCU is ahead of Baylor. The Horned Frogs even outplayed the Bears for better than 80 percent of their head-to-head matchup. But the problem is, Baylor did have those amazing last 12 minutes in which they scored 24 points to win 61-58.
For now, it's fine for the committee to put TCU ahead of Baylor—and it's expected to do so this week. But what if both teams finish 11-1, with Baylor beating Kansas State on the last day of the season. Will the committee finally flip the teams, then? Or does it keep TCU ahead because head-to-head is merely one of the many considerations, as chairman Jeff Long stated last week?
Both teams will be favored to win their respective remaining three games. And if they both come through, this likely will be the committee's most difficult decision come Selection Sunday.
THE RANKINGS
The Playoff Teams
1. Mississippi State
While a loss at Alabama on Saturday won't mathematically eliminate the Bulldogs from playoff contention, it likely would end their dream season. With its weak nonconference schedule, it's highly doubtful that MSU would get into the playoff field without winning the SEC West. So yes, it's pretty much a do-or-die game.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Sugar Bowl
2. Florida State
The Seminoles continue to cruise along despite a weak schedule and very low computer rankings. But none of that matters as long as they win out. In fact, should Mississippi State lose next week, FSU will ascend to the No. 1 spot and be poised to grab the top seed in the playoff.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Rose Bowl
3. Oregon
The Ducks survived another brutal Pac-12 under-the-lights drama, thanks in part to a terribly bone-headed play by Utah early in the game. But mounting injury problems will cause them to limp toward the finish line. Oregon has about four weeks to get healthy before its next real challenge in the Pac-12 title game.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Rose Bowl
5. TCU
The Frogs have the final playoff spot now but by no means do they control their own fate. They may win their final three games impressively only to be turned out by the committee because of their loss to Baylor. All TCU can do is win and wait.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Sugar Bowl
The First Four Out
4. Alabama
After having survived Death Valley, the Tide face another must-win game as they host No. 1 Mississippi State. The path is clear for them, though—win out and they're in the playoff. And having all three of their remaining games at home should help.
Projected bowl: Cotton Bowl
6. Arizona State
The Sun Devils scored their most impressive win of the season by knocking Notre Dame out of the playoff chase, but that win does not help them in the Pac-12 South race. A loss in the Territorial Cup likely will hand the division title to arch rival Arizona, or the UCLA-USC winner, depending how the tough division shakes out in the next three weeks.
Projected bowl: Fiesta Bowl
7. Baylor
There's not much the Bears can do about their weak nonconference schedule, but they can see a path to the playoff field if they score a ton of style points the rest of the way. For Baylor, it may all come down to the season finale against Kansas State and also just how much the committee values head-to-head results.
Projected bowl: Cotton Bowl
8. Ohio State
The Buckeyes' resounding win at East Lansing puts them in the driver's seat for the Big Ten title, which might ultimately be the consolation prize. The weakness of the league, in addition to Ohio State's awful loss to Virginia Tech—by far the worst one among all one-loss teams—might be just too much to overcome.
Projected bowl: Fiesta Bowl
Other Fun Facts
* Realistically, there are just 12 teams still in contention for a playoff spot, and three of those are two-loss teams (Auburn, Ole Miss and UCLA) who all need help just to win their respective divisions. Nebraska can win out and claim the Big Ten title, but like Ohio State, its path to the playoff field is very much blocked by teams from the other four power conferences.
* Will the committee continue to keep Marshall, or other group-of-five teams, out of the rankings? It'll likely have to tip its hand at some point as we'll see several three-loss teams in this week's rankings. Colorado State might have the best resume so far among group-of-five contenders, but it can't win the Mountain West without Boise State losing at least another game.
* Notre Dame's loss to Arizona State eliminated the Irish from playoff contention, and perhaps also a spot in a New Year's Six bowl as well. Unlike in the bowl era and the BCS era where the Irish often received preferential treatment from individual bowls, in the CFP the committee decides on all 12 participants for the major bowls. Based on merit Notre Dame for now is headed to a minor bowl game.
Wednesday, November 5, 2014
Committee Members Behaving Like Pollsters
After just one week, it's pretty clear that the College Football Playoff selection committee members are behaving like the voters in The Associated Press and coaches polls.
Explanation of Rankings
BCS rankings are a simulation of the BCS formula used from 2004-2013 with two exceptions: 1) The AP poll is used in place of the Harris Poll; 2) Sagarin and Massey rankings are their native systems instead of the non-MOV version used for the BCS.
CFP mock rankings are published weekly at Bleacher Report, with components including polls, computers, strength of schedule and conference championships. The full rankings are here.
A Few Highlights, Thoughts from Committee's Rankings
Ole Miss' Big Drop Reveals Poll Mentality
The Rebels lost a heartbreaker against No. 3 Auburn on a last-minute fumble that was ruled a touchdown on the field and only overturned by replay as Laquon Treadwell suffered a horrific ankle injury in the process. But they dropped seven spots in the rankings to No. 11. That smells like a poll.
Eight Teams Can Still Play Their Way in
With Alabama having games remaining against Auburn and Mississippi State, it looks like the top seven teams, plus No. 9 Arizona State, all will have a shot to land a spot in the playoff field simply by winning out. The highest-ranked team that does not control its own fate is eighth-ranked Michigan State, which needs at least one of the other conference champions to suffer a second loss.
Notre Dame Faces a Must-Win Game, and Then Some
The Irish, as expected, are still stuck at No. 10. They can move up by beating No. 9 Arizona State this week and then must root like crazy for the Sun Devils the rest of the way. Notre Dame's best chance of getting into the playoff will rest on ASU winning the Pac-12 title (presumably over Oregon).
Committee Has a Bias, but Not an SEC Bias
Of the six SEC teams in the committee's rankings, only Ole Miss is placed higher in the CFP rankings than the AP poll. Of the five Pac-12 teams in the rankings, each is ranked at least as high—if not higher—in the CFP rankings as the AP poll. You can interpret this as the polls being biased toward the SEC (which they are) and/or that with four of the 12 committee members having Western ties (more than any other region), the teams out on the left coast are getting a closer look.
Little Guys Still Get No Love from Committee
No Group of Five team made it into the Top 25 this week, and this is at least somewhat troubling. If Marshall is deemed unworthy because of its weak schedule, then Colorado State (despite the fact that it needs help to win the Mountain West) should be strongly considered. If strength of schedule is of such paramount concern, then there's no chance any non-Power Five team will ever land in the playoff. As in, ever.
Yes, the 12 members are doing more homework and their rankings remain superior and more logical than the polls, but they're very much falling into the trap of sliding teams up and down based on wins and losses. With the exception of one team—Ole Miss at No. 11—the teams are ordered according to their number of losses.
The committee may come to regret having to do this made-for-TV event (let's face it, ESPN really wanted it) every week until Dec. 7, when it has to unveil its final rankings—the only one that actually matters. If the members want to fulfill the promise that they're taking a fresh look at each team every week, there had better be significant fluctuations in the upcoming rankings.
While these rankings don't exactly resemble the old BCS standings (and that's a good thing), we have the entire Top 10 pegged in order with the exception of Nos. 5 and 6 Alabama and TCU being flipped. And committee chairman Jeff Long admitted during the selection-show interview that these teams are so close that they had to "go to the tape" to break the tie.
Here's how this week's rankings look:
| CFP Rank | Team | BCS | B/R Mock | AP | Coaches |
| 1 | Miss State | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | Florida State | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 3 | Auburn | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Oregon | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| 5 | Alabama | 4 | 6 | 4 | 4 |
| 6 | TCU | 6 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 7 | Kansas State | 8 | 7 | 9 | 9 |
| 8 | Michigan State | 7 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
| 9 | Arizona State | 12 | 9 | 11 | 12 |
| 10 | Notre Dame | 9 | 10 | 8 | 8 |
| 11 | Ole Miss | 10 | 12 | 12 | 13 |
| 12 | Baylor | 14 | 11 | 10 | 10 |
| 13 | Nebraska | 15 | 13 | 15 | 14 |
| 14 | Ohio State | 13 | 14 | 13 | 11 |
| 15 | Oklahoma | 17 | 17 | 16 | 16 |
| 16 | LSU | 11 | 15 | 14 | 15 |
| 17 | Utah | 21 | 21 | 20 | 22 |
| 18 | UCLA | 16 | 16 | 18 | 18 |
| 19 | Arizona | 20 | 18 | 21 | 21 |
| 20 | Georgia | 18 | 19 | 17 | 17 |
| 21 | Clemson | 19 | 20 | 19 | 19 |
| 22 | Duke | 23 | 24 | 22 | 20 |
| 23 | West Virginia | 24 | 26 | 24 | 25 |
| 24 | Georgia Tech | NR | 32 | 29 | 28 |
| 25 | Wisconsin | 25 | 22 | 25 | 24 |
| NR | Marshall | 22 | 23 | 23 | 23 |
Explanation of Rankings
BCS rankings are a simulation of the BCS formula used from 2004-2013 with two exceptions: 1) The AP poll is used in place of the Harris Poll; 2) Sagarin and Massey rankings are their native systems instead of the non-MOV version used for the BCS.
CFP mock rankings are published weekly at Bleacher Report, with components including polls, computers, strength of schedule and conference championships. The full rankings are here.
A Few Highlights, Thoughts from Committee's Rankings
Ole Miss' Big Drop Reveals Poll Mentality
The Rebels lost a heartbreaker against No. 3 Auburn on a last-minute fumble that was ruled a touchdown on the field and only overturned by replay as Laquon Treadwell suffered a horrific ankle injury in the process. But they dropped seven spots in the rankings to No. 11. That smells like a poll.
Eight Teams Can Still Play Their Way in
With Alabama having games remaining against Auburn and Mississippi State, it looks like the top seven teams, plus No. 9 Arizona State, all will have a shot to land a spot in the playoff field simply by winning out. The highest-ranked team that does not control its own fate is eighth-ranked Michigan State, which needs at least one of the other conference champions to suffer a second loss.
Notre Dame Faces a Must-Win Game, and Then Some
The Irish, as expected, are still stuck at No. 10. They can move up by beating No. 9 Arizona State this week and then must root like crazy for the Sun Devils the rest of the way. Notre Dame's best chance of getting into the playoff will rest on ASU winning the Pac-12 title (presumably over Oregon).
Committee Has a Bias, but Not an SEC Bias
Of the six SEC teams in the committee's rankings, only Ole Miss is placed higher in the CFP rankings than the AP poll. Of the five Pac-12 teams in the rankings, each is ranked at least as high—if not higher—in the CFP rankings as the AP poll. You can interpret this as the polls being biased toward the SEC (which they are) and/or that with four of the 12 committee members having Western ties (more than any other region), the teams out on the left coast are getting a closer look.
Little Guys Still Get No Love from Committee
No Group of Five team made it into the Top 25 this week, and this is at least somewhat troubling. If Marshall is deemed unworthy because of its weak schedule, then Colorado State (despite the fact that it needs help to win the Mountain West) should be strongly considered. If strength of schedule is of such paramount concern, then there's no chance any non-Power Five team will ever land in the playoff. As in, ever.
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