Are the voters still holding last season's Orange Bowl against Northern Illinois?
That certainly appears to be the case. While the Huskies have continued their unbeaten run this season, their position in the polls seems to be stuck in neutral.
In contrast, their main competitor for the non-AQ BCS spot, Fresno State, has made much more significant gains in the polls. The Bulldogs now have a commanding lead in the latest BCS standings, even though at No. 14, they're just one spot ahead of Northern Illinois.
Fresno State's lead is built entirely on the polls, as the two teams—both 9-0—are in a dead heat in the computer rankings. But since the polls account for two thirds of the BCS standings, voter preference most likely will decide which team gets the coveted BCS bowl slot (and a bonus in excess of $10 million to that team's conference).
To qualify for the berth, likely in the Fiesta Bowl, Fresno or NIU must finish in the top 16 of the final BCS standings and ahead one of the current AQ conference champion, or in the top 12. And only the highest-ranked team will earn the BCS berth even if both meet the qualification.
Since the Harris Poll was released in Week 7, here's the progression of both teams in the two polls:
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Showing posts with label Coaches Poll. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Coaches Poll. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 12, 2013
Thursday, October 17, 2013
How BCS Works, and Why It's Going Away
After 16 years of existence, the Bowl Championship Series will be ushered into the ash heap of history following the completion of this season. The College Football Playoff will replace the BCS starting next season, discarding almost the entire infrastructure of the old system.
But for one last time, we still must contend with BCS's rules and protocols. For the past nine years, the setup has been actually quite consistent and without any significant changes. As a result, the process is fairly easy to understand and there is a decent degree of transparency.
The first piece, of course, is the BCS standings. The formula was altered in 2004 and has remain unchanged other than in 2005 the Harris Interactive Poll replaced the AP Poll in the standings. The 2004 remake shifted the weight of the standings to the human voters to such a degree that at least for the purpose of creating the BCS championship matchups, the computers have been rendered irrelevant.
The Coaches Poll and Harris Poll each account for one-third of the standings and then the computers the other one-third. The poll numbers are tabulated not by the teams' actual rankings but by the percentage of vote shares. The computer score comes from the average of six computer rankings—with margin of victory forbidden to be used as a component—after the highest and lowest rankings are thrown out.
Since the adoption of the current formula in 2004, every team that finished either first or second in the polls have played in the BCS title game because of the preponderance of human polls. Alabama finished third in the computer rankings in both 2011 and 2012 (behind Oklahoma State and Florida, respectively), yet played and won both BCS title games because it placed second in the polls both years.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
But for one last time, we still must contend with BCS's rules and protocols. For the past nine years, the setup has been actually quite consistent and without any significant changes. As a result, the process is fairly easy to understand and there is a decent degree of transparency.
The first piece, of course, is the BCS standings. The formula was altered in 2004 and has remain unchanged other than in 2005 the Harris Interactive Poll replaced the AP Poll in the standings. The 2004 remake shifted the weight of the standings to the human voters to such a degree that at least for the purpose of creating the BCS championship matchups, the computers have been rendered irrelevant.
The Coaches Poll and Harris Poll each account for one-third of the standings and then the computers the other one-third. The poll numbers are tabulated not by the teams' actual rankings but by the percentage of vote shares. The computer score comes from the average of six computer rankings—with margin of victory forbidden to be used as a component—after the highest and lowest rankings are thrown out.
Since the adoption of the current formula in 2004, every team that finished either first or second in the polls have played in the BCS title game because of the preponderance of human polls. Alabama finished third in the computer rankings in both 2011 and 2012 (behind Oklahoma State and Florida, respectively), yet played and won both BCS title games because it placed second in the polls both years.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Thursday, January 10, 2013
Alabama Still No.1, Unanimously (Sort Of)
For the first time, at the urging of a few readers, the Guru is putting together a Simulated BCS Standings at the conclusion of the postseason. Besides addressing the faux outcry about how Notre Dame still finished first in one of the computer ratings, we also wanted to deal with ineligible teams and where they would've finished in the standings.
* Because the Harris Poll doesn't publish season-ending standings, we used the AP Poll as the stand-in. And also, since Ohio State and Penn State weren't eligible to be ranked in the Coaches Poll, we mirrored their vote shares in the AP poll in order to obtain their true rankings in the standings.
* The Colley Matrix is getting skewered for still having Notre Dame No. 1 after getting lambasted by Alabama by 28 points - in a game that wasn't really that close. But blame that anomaly on the BCS, which in 2002 decided to mandate that margin of victory can't be part of any BCS computers. So to the computers, all losses are treated as 1-point losses, and most computers don't automatically rank one team higher than another with identical records based purely on head-to-head results.
* Still, five of the six BCS computers have Alabama finishing at No. 1, coupled with unanimous votes from the AP and Coaches polls, the Crimson Tide still earned a perfect score in the final standings.
* Ohio State just nudged Notre Dame for No. 3, even though it was ineligible to play in postseason. Likewise for Penn State, which finished at No. 28.
* There is significant agreement between the computers and the polls as to which teams should be in the top 25. After Michigan - the only 5-loss team in the top 25, though it did lose to teams ranked Nos. 1, 3, 4, 8 and 22 - there is a steep drop to No. 26 Cincinnati.
* The ACC teams - Florida State and Clemson - ended up being the victims of their conference's subpar season. Even though both teams won their bowl games, they both finished outside of the top 10 because of weak computer rankings.
* A total of 42 teams appeared in the final standings, including back-to-back FCS champion North Dakota State, which received a lone vote in the AP Poll. This practice was allowed by the AP after Appalachian State upset Michigan in the 2007 season opener.
* One more note about the polls. The Coaches Poll had only 56 voters in the final poll, with the explanation that Mike MacIntyre, Sonny Dykes and Ruffin McNeill could not be reached in time to turn in their final ballots. Is this lame, or what? MacIntyre and Dykes switched jobs, but surely they have cell phones. And what's McNeill's excuse? Last we checked he's still at East Carolina.
* Is there any more questions about the SEC's dominance? Half of the conference (seven teams) is ranked in the top 23, including six in the top 13. Pac-12, Big 12 and Big Ten each placed six teams in the rankings, and the rest: Big East (3), WAC (3), MAC (3), ACC (2), CUSA (2), MWC (1), Sun Belt (1) and Notre Dame (independent).
* Because the Harris Poll doesn't publish season-ending standings, we used the AP Poll as the stand-in. And also, since Ohio State and Penn State weren't eligible to be ranked in the Coaches Poll, we mirrored their vote shares in the AP poll in order to obtain their true rankings in the standings.
* Still, five of the six BCS computers have Alabama finishing at No. 1, coupled with unanimous votes from the AP and Coaches polls, the Crimson Tide still earned a perfect score in the final standings.
* Ohio State just nudged Notre Dame for No. 3, even though it was ineligible to play in postseason. Likewise for Penn State, which finished at No. 28.
* There is significant agreement between the computers and the polls as to which teams should be in the top 25. After Michigan - the only 5-loss team in the top 25, though it did lose to teams ranked Nos. 1, 3, 4, 8 and 22 - there is a steep drop to No. 26 Cincinnati.
* The ACC teams - Florida State and Clemson - ended up being the victims of their conference's subpar season. Even though both teams won their bowl games, they both finished outside of the top 10 because of weak computer rankings.
* A total of 42 teams appeared in the final standings, including back-to-back FCS champion North Dakota State, which received a lone vote in the AP Poll. This practice was allowed by the AP after Appalachian State upset Michigan in the 2007 season opener.
* One more note about the polls. The Coaches Poll had only 56 voters in the final poll, with the explanation that Mike MacIntyre, Sonny Dykes and Ruffin McNeill could not be reached in time to turn in their final ballots. Is this lame, or what? MacIntyre and Dykes switched jobs, but surely they have cell phones. And what's McNeill's excuse? Last we checked he's still at East Carolina.
* Is there any more questions about the SEC's dominance? Half of the conference (seven teams) is ranked in the top 23, including six in the top 13. Pac-12, Big 12 and Big Ten each placed six teams in the rankings, and the rest: Big East (3), WAC (3), MAC (3), ACC (2), CUSA (2), MWC (1), Sun Belt (1) and Notre Dame (independent).
Monday, September 13, 2010
Who's to Blame for Boise State's Fall?
As everyone suspected, the biggest loser of James Madison's upset of Virginia Tech is really Boise State. In the latest Simulated BCS Standings, the Broncos fell from No. 2 all the way to No. 6.
To the uninitiated, it's easy to blame the computers for Boise's sudden fall. But take a closer look, then you'll know it's the usual suspects - the unaccountable coaches - who are the most responsible for the change in the BCS standings.
In three of the BCS computers, the Broncos stayed just about exactly where they were: Remaining No. 1 in Jeff Sagarin; dropping from No. 1 to No. 2 in Richard Billingsley; and staying unranked (going from No. 48 to No. 54) in Kenneth Massey. In the median ranking we used for the simulation, they were No. 6, the same as a week ago.
The only change came from Colley Matrix, but there's an entirely reasonable explanation for Boise going from No. 1 to No. 47. Colley's methodology is bias free, meaning there was no preseason rankings, and after last week - the opening weekend - every team that won was ranked No. 1 and every team that lost ranked No. 82. Boise's drop here has as much to do as its being idle as Virginia Tech's loss to James Madison.
Colley's rankings will continue to have some radical shifts in the coming weeks, so significant fluctuation there for any team is expected until at least mid-season. But even with the seemingly dramatic drop from No. 1 to out of the rankings, the Broncos' net loss in the computer component is 360 points.
They lost nearly 500 points in the AP Poll, despite remaining No. 3.
Obviously, with the AP not part of the official BCS standings, this won't matter that much. The Broncos lost 26 points in the Coaches Poll, which was not terribly significant. The Harris Poll, which makes up the other one-thirds of the standings, typically apes the other two polls when it's released later in the season.
The Broncos actually don't have a whole lot to fear from the computers, despite the common conjecture that their weak conference schedule will harm their ratings there. The reality is that if they remain undefeated, they will be ranked very high in the computers, enough to stay in the hunt for a spot in the BCS title game.
But the humans are another matter. With Harris and Coaches' polls accounting for two-thirds of the BCS standings, those two will decide who gets to play in the BCS title game, regardless of what transpires with the computers. In the six seasons since the BCS last tweaked its formula, every team that finished either first or second in these two polls played in the BCS title game.
If the Broncos are ranked in the top 2 in these two polls, they're in. If they're not, they're out. It's simple as that. They can control what they do on the field, and therefore, can influence the computer ratings. But they will be completely helpless when it comes to the recesses of the human mind, those of the 173 Harris and Coaches voters.
This is why Boise State needs to win every game impressively. While the computers, by BCS rule, cannot take margin of victory into consideration, every human voter can't help but be swayed by how a team wins as much as if a team wins. And while the computers can examine a team's strength of schedule in depth, most of the voters will be focusing on just one or two of what they perceive to be important opponents.
So if you're Boise State, the machines are the least of your worries.
To the uninitiated, it's easy to blame the computers for Boise's sudden fall. But take a closer look, then you'll know it's the usual suspects - the unaccountable coaches - who are the most responsible for the change in the BCS standings.
In three of the BCS computers, the Broncos stayed just about exactly where they were: Remaining No. 1 in Jeff Sagarin; dropping from No. 1 to No. 2 in Richard Billingsley; and staying unranked (going from No. 48 to No. 54) in Kenneth Massey. In the median ranking we used for the simulation, they were No. 6, the same as a week ago.
The only change came from Colley Matrix, but there's an entirely reasonable explanation for Boise going from No. 1 to No. 47. Colley's methodology is bias free, meaning there was no preseason rankings, and after last week - the opening weekend - every team that won was ranked No. 1 and every team that lost ranked No. 82. Boise's drop here has as much to do as its being idle as Virginia Tech's loss to James Madison.
Colley's rankings will continue to have some radical shifts in the coming weeks, so significant fluctuation there for any team is expected until at least mid-season. But even with the seemingly dramatic drop from No. 1 to out of the rankings, the Broncos' net loss in the computer component is 360 points.
They lost nearly 500 points in the AP Poll, despite remaining No. 3.
Obviously, with the AP not part of the official BCS standings, this won't matter that much. The Broncos lost 26 points in the Coaches Poll, which was not terribly significant. The Harris Poll, which makes up the other one-thirds of the standings, typically apes the other two polls when it's released later in the season.
The Broncos actually don't have a whole lot to fear from the computers, despite the common conjecture that their weak conference schedule will harm their ratings there. The reality is that if they remain undefeated, they will be ranked very high in the computers, enough to stay in the hunt for a spot in the BCS title game.
But the humans are another matter. With Harris and Coaches' polls accounting for two-thirds of the BCS standings, those two will decide who gets to play in the BCS title game, regardless of what transpires with the computers. In the six seasons since the BCS last tweaked its formula, every team that finished either first or second in these two polls played in the BCS title game.
If the Broncos are ranked in the top 2 in these two polls, they're in. If they're not, they're out. It's simple as that. They can control what they do on the field, and therefore, can influence the computer ratings. But they will be completely helpless when it comes to the recesses of the human mind, those of the 173 Harris and Coaches voters.
This is why Boise State needs to win every game impressively. While the computers, by BCS rule, cannot take margin of victory into consideration, every human voter can't help but be swayed by how a team wins as much as if a team wins. And while the computers can examine a team's strength of schedule in depth, most of the voters will be focusing on just one or two of what they perceive to be important opponents.
So if you're Boise State, the machines are the least of your worries.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Final Simulated BCS Standings
Next Sunday, the BCS will release its first official standings for the 2009 season, so this is the final Simulated BCS Standings.
As has been the practice since our inception, beginning next week, the Guru will release the projections for the BCS Standings by Saturday night, following the final game of consequence for the evening - in next week's case, the Missouri-Oklahoma State game that kicks off at 9:15 p.m. ET. On Sundays, the Guru will publish the most comprehensive BCS Standings anywhere, including every team that has received any points from the polls and computers.
The final Simulated BCS Standings are a bit of a downer, as world order appears to have been restored. Florida, the consensus No. 1 in the polls, is also No. 1 in the BCS Standings. The Gators will be No. 1 in the first official standings next week as well, no matter what happens as long as they defeat Arkansas. Florida is No. 1 because it has an insurmountable lead in the two polls.
Alabama checks in at No. 2, now slightly behind Florida in the computer ratings. The Tide have made up ground on Texas in the polls, tying the 'Horns in the Harris poll for No. 2. They have opened up a rather comfortable lead over everyone else while rolling toward a collision with Florida in the SEC title game.
Virginia Tech has leap-frogged unbeaten Texas for No. 3. The Longhorns, after another lackluster victory against an outmatched opponent, are slipping fast in the polls and getting no love from the computers. Texas' troubles with the computers will continue even if it defeats Oklahoma next week, as OU is ranked in the top 25 only by Billingsley.
Lurking at No. 6, behind Boise State, is USC. But the Trojans' misfortune with the computers is about to change. They face Notre Dame, Oregon State and Oregon in the next three weeks - three teams fairly well-regarded by the computers. If USC manages to sweep the trio, then it will have a chance to move back up the standings as some of the frontrunners fall. The Trojans finish the season with three straight home games.
The Guru's prediction of a Boise State ceiling appears to have been on target, as Boise is getting dropped by one-loss teams even during a bye week. USC jumped the Broncos in the always-suspect Coaches Poll though both teams were idle. In the Harris Poll, Boise was jumped by Virginia Tech this week.
After their Wednesday night game at Tulsa, the Broncos will finish the slate with seven straight against WAC opponents, with only one (Idaho) currently boasting a winning record. Boise State, at this juncture, appears to have no shot at the BCS title game, even if all other teams have at least one loss. The Broncos might even have to fend off TCU for a BCS bowl spot if both teams finish the season undefeated.
Both Coaches and Harris polls continue to defy logic and undermine their credibility (whatever little they had to start with) with some oddball rankings. In the Coaches Poll, Oklahoma, with two losses, is ahead of BYU, which has one loss and has beaten the Sooners head-to-head. In the Harris Poll, Tennessee (3-3), Michigan State (3-3) and Connecticut (3-2) all received votes - which begs the question: Are these voters willfully ignorant or downright stupid?
But we'll never know. Since they won't tell us who voted how for whom.
As has been the practice since our inception, beginning next week, the Guru will release the projections for the BCS Standings by Saturday night, following the final game of consequence for the evening - in next week's case, the Missouri-Oklahoma State game that kicks off at 9:15 p.m. ET. On Sundays, the Guru will publish the most comprehensive BCS Standings anywhere, including every team that has received any points from the polls and computers.
The final Simulated BCS Standings are a bit of a downer, as world order appears to have been restored. Florida, the consensus No. 1 in the polls, is also No. 1 in the BCS Standings. The Gators will be No. 1 in the first official standings next week as well, no matter what happens as long as they defeat Arkansas. Florida is No. 1 because it has an insurmountable lead in the two polls.
Alabama checks in at No. 2, now slightly behind Florida in the computer ratings. The Tide have made up ground on Texas in the polls, tying the 'Horns in the Harris poll for No. 2. They have opened up a rather comfortable lead over everyone else while rolling toward a collision with Florida in the SEC title game.
Virginia Tech has leap-frogged unbeaten Texas for No. 3. The Longhorns, after another lackluster victory against an outmatched opponent, are slipping fast in the polls and getting no love from the computers. Texas' troubles with the computers will continue even if it defeats Oklahoma next week, as OU is ranked in the top 25 only by Billingsley.
Lurking at No. 6, behind Boise State, is USC. But the Trojans' misfortune with the computers is about to change. They face Notre Dame, Oregon State and Oregon in the next three weeks - three teams fairly well-regarded by the computers. If USC manages to sweep the trio, then it will have a chance to move back up the standings as some of the frontrunners fall. The Trojans finish the season with three straight home games.
The Guru's prediction of a Boise State ceiling appears to have been on target, as Boise is getting dropped by one-loss teams even during a bye week. USC jumped the Broncos in the always-suspect Coaches Poll though both teams were idle. In the Harris Poll, Boise was jumped by Virginia Tech this week.
After their Wednesday night game at Tulsa, the Broncos will finish the slate with seven straight against WAC opponents, with only one (Idaho) currently boasting a winning record. Boise State, at this juncture, appears to have no shot at the BCS title game, even if all other teams have at least one loss. The Broncos might even have to fend off TCU for a BCS bowl spot if both teams finish the season undefeated.
Both Coaches and Harris polls continue to defy logic and undermine their credibility (whatever little they had to start with) with some oddball rankings. In the Coaches Poll, Oklahoma, with two losses, is ahead of BYU, which has one loss and has beaten the Sooners head-to-head. In the Harris Poll, Tennessee (3-3), Michigan State (3-3) and Connecticut (3-2) all received votes - which begs the question: Are these voters willfully ignorant or downright stupid?
But we'll never know. Since they won't tell us who voted how for whom.
Monday, September 28, 2009
The Fatal Flaw of the BCS
What's wrong with the BCS? Look no further than the two polls that account for two-thirds of the BCS Standings.
This week's Simulated BCS Standings are just about as good as the real thing, with nearly 90 percent of the data for the actual standings available - both the Coaches and Harris polls and four of the six computers.
But the near-fatal flaw of the BCS Standings becomes immediately evident as soon as the Harris Poll is released. With another year potentially to be dominated by parity - only 17 teams remain unbeaten after four weeks - the standings will have the final say on who gets to play in the BCS national championship game. And yet again, the standings will be heavily influenced by two highly biased and unreliable polls.
Let's count the ways:
1. The Harris Poll doesn't come out until the fourth week of the season, ostensibly to free the voters from preseason prejudices. Guess what? It's just not happening. The top 10 of the Harris Poll has the exact same 10 teams from the AP Poll, and in the exact order, except for Nos. 8-9 Ohio State and Oklahoma traded places.
2. If the Harris Poll was to be free of preseason biases, how would you explain the fact that Oregon is ranked No. 23 and Cal at No. 21? The Ducks just destroyed the Bears by 39 points. The two teams have identical records at 3-1. And Oregon played a considerably tougher schedule than the Bears did, with games against three ranked opponents. If the Harris voters indeed voted on the basis of pure performance, there is no way that Cal should be ranked ahead of Oregon. ... The same goes for Penn State being two spots ahead of Iowa.
3. The credibility of the Harris Poll is again highly questionable, with voters putting teams like Iowa State, Kansas State, Washington and Texas Tech in the top 25.
4. The Coaches Poll has the same sort of problems, as usual. And since both polls do not release the individual ballots to the public until the final vote, there is little or no transparency in the process.
As long as these two polls get to dominate the BCS Standings, the BCS will always lack a certain amount of legitimacy. With so much money and prestige on the line in the biggest intercollegiate sport, it's in many ways mind-boggling that a system can continue to thrive with so little checks and balances to ensure fairness.
Then again, big-time college sports isn't really about fairness, is it?
This week's Simulated BCS Standings are just about as good as the real thing, with nearly 90 percent of the data for the actual standings available - both the Coaches and Harris polls and four of the six computers.
But the near-fatal flaw of the BCS Standings becomes immediately evident as soon as the Harris Poll is released. With another year potentially to be dominated by parity - only 17 teams remain unbeaten after four weeks - the standings will have the final say on who gets to play in the BCS national championship game. And yet again, the standings will be heavily influenced by two highly biased and unreliable polls.
Let's count the ways:
1. The Harris Poll doesn't come out until the fourth week of the season, ostensibly to free the voters from preseason prejudices. Guess what? It's just not happening. The top 10 of the Harris Poll has the exact same 10 teams from the AP Poll, and in the exact order, except for Nos. 8-9 Ohio State and Oklahoma traded places.
2. If the Harris Poll was to be free of preseason biases, how would you explain the fact that Oregon is ranked No. 23 and Cal at No. 21? The Ducks just destroyed the Bears by 39 points. The two teams have identical records at 3-1. And Oregon played a considerably tougher schedule than the Bears did, with games against three ranked opponents. If the Harris voters indeed voted on the basis of pure performance, there is no way that Cal should be ranked ahead of Oregon. ... The same goes for Penn State being two spots ahead of Iowa.
3. The credibility of the Harris Poll is again highly questionable, with voters putting teams like Iowa State, Kansas State, Washington and Texas Tech in the top 25.
4. The Coaches Poll has the same sort of problems, as usual. And since both polls do not release the individual ballots to the public until the final vote, there is little or no transparency in the process.
As long as these two polls get to dominate the BCS Standings, the BCS will always lack a certain amount of legitimacy. With so much money and prestige on the line in the biggest intercollegiate sport, it's in many ways mind-boggling that a system can continue to thrive with so little checks and balances to ensure fairness.
Then again, big-time college sports isn't really about fairness, is it?
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Waiting on the Harris Poll
Next Monday's Simulated BCS Standings will be nearly as good as the real thing (so maybe our friend Chris Dufresne might stop mocking us at the Fabulous Forum). The Harris Poll will be released for the first time on Sunday. That, combined with the Coaches Poll, four of the six computers, gave us nearly 90% of the components of the BCS Standings.
The only components missing would be two computer rankings: Anderson & Hester, which will release its first 2009 ratings after the Oct. 3 games; and Peter Wolfe, who always withholds the data until the first Official BCS Standings are released, this year on Oct. 18.
A few notes about the Harris Interactive College Football Poll, which was founded after the Associated Press demanded that its poll be removed from the BCS Standings following the Cal-Texas Rose Bowl debacle in 2004:
* This is the fifth season that the Harris poll has been an element of the BCS Standings.
* The Harris Poll comprises one-third of the Standings. The other two elements, of course, are the USA Today Coaches Poll and the average of six computer rankings.
* Each of the 11 conferences nominated 30 people to serve on the Harris panel; Harris randomly selected 10 from each bunch. Notre Dame nominated nine (Harris selected three) and Army and Navy nominated three (Harris selected one.) Yep, there are 114 panelists.
* The identities of the panelists will be made available by the end of the week.
* The rankings will be posted on the Harris Web site each Sunday. But each panelist's individual ballot will not be revealed until the final regular season poll. Unlike the AP and Coaches Poll, the Harris Poll does not have a final poll that comes out after the bowls.
The only components missing would be two computer rankings: Anderson & Hester, which will release its first 2009 ratings after the Oct. 3 games; and Peter Wolfe, who always withholds the data until the first Official BCS Standings are released, this year on Oct. 18.
A few notes about the Harris Interactive College Football Poll, which was founded after the Associated Press demanded that its poll be removed from the BCS Standings following the Cal-Texas Rose Bowl debacle in 2004:
* This is the fifth season that the Harris poll has been an element of the BCS Standings.
* The Harris Poll comprises one-third of the Standings. The other two elements, of course, are the USA Today Coaches Poll and the average of six computer rankings.
* Each of the 11 conferences nominated 30 people to serve on the Harris panel; Harris randomly selected 10 from each bunch. Notre Dame nominated nine (Harris selected three) and Army and Navy nominated three (Harris selected one.) Yep, there are 114 panelists.
* The identities of the panelists will be made available by the end of the week.
* The rankings will be posted on the Harris Web site each Sunday. But each panelist's individual ballot will not be revealed until the final regular season poll. Unlike the AP and Coaches Poll, the Harris Poll does not have a final poll that comes out after the bowls.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
USC Makes Its Move Up BCS Standings
Oklahoma's loss as expected dropped the Sooners out of the top 10, but the team that made the most of the first weekend is USC.
In the latest BCS standings (as simulated by the Guru), the Trojans vaulted past Texas into the No. 2 spot. In fact, USC has a pretty healthy margin on the Longhorns and may threaten Florida at No. 1 with a victory at Ohio State on Saturday.
The Trojans are currently third in the two polls, but are ranked first (Sagarin), second (Massey MOV) and third (Billingsley) in the three BCS computers that have released its ratings. Among 38 computer rankings, USC has a median ranking of 2.
Brigham Young moved into the top 10, but did not jump as high as first projected, settling in at No. 8. Despite good computer rankings (No. 3 on Sagarin, No. 4 on Billingsley), the Cougars are hurt by their standings in the polls, checking in at No. 9 in the AP Poll, and No. 12 in the Coaches Poll.
This is very damaging news for BYU's national title aspirations. What's appalling about the always-dubious Coaches Poll is not just BYU's placement (at No. 12 after essentially a road win vs. then-No. 3 Oklahoma?) but the total votes it received, which accounts for one third of the BCS formula.
BYU got 96% of the points of No. 5 Oklahoma State in the AP Poll, meaning that the Cougars really aren't that far off from being in the top 5. But in the Coaches Poll, they received only 66% of the points of No. 5 Penn State, meaning that unless teams ahead of the Cougars start losing, they might have a hard time making up the deficit. And of course, the AP Poll is not in the BCS standings, but the Coaches Poll is.
BYU is, however, one spot ahead of Boise State, in a race for the lone guaranteed spot for a non-BCS conference team. The Cougars' victory over OU stole Boise's thunder, whose home win over Oregon paled in comparison. The Broncos are still ahead of BYU in the Coaches Poll, but the weakness of their remaining schedule will catch up to them (at least in the computers) should both teams stay undefeated.
With BYU, Boise State, TCU (No. 14) and Utah (No. 15) all in the top 15, the debate over BCS's automatic qualification process will be further intensified. These four Coalition teams (three from the Mountain West) are ahead of the highest rated ACC (Virginia Tech at No. 16) and Big East (Cincinnati at No. 20) teams.
Notre Dame checks in at No. 23, getting its perch solely on the strength of poll numbers. The Irish are ranked Nos. 35, 37 and 56 on the three BCS computers with a median ranking of No. 30 on other computers. As its schedule isn't exactly murderers' row, Notre Dame's BCS chances will be heavily influenced by how much the pollsters fall for its yesteryear mystique.
In the latest BCS standings (as simulated by the Guru), the Trojans vaulted past Texas into the No. 2 spot. In fact, USC has a pretty healthy margin on the Longhorns and may threaten Florida at No. 1 with a victory at Ohio State on Saturday.
The Trojans are currently third in the two polls, but are ranked first (Sagarin), second (Massey MOV) and third (Billingsley) in the three BCS computers that have released its ratings. Among 38 computer rankings, USC has a median ranking of 2.
Brigham Young moved into the top 10, but did not jump as high as first projected, settling in at No. 8. Despite good computer rankings (No. 3 on Sagarin, No. 4 on Billingsley), the Cougars are hurt by their standings in the polls, checking in at No. 9 in the AP Poll, and No. 12 in the Coaches Poll.
This is very damaging news for BYU's national title aspirations. What's appalling about the always-dubious Coaches Poll is not just BYU's placement (at No. 12 after essentially a road win vs. then-No. 3 Oklahoma?) but the total votes it received, which accounts for one third of the BCS formula.
BYU got 96% of the points of No. 5 Oklahoma State in the AP Poll, meaning that the Cougars really aren't that far off from being in the top 5. But in the Coaches Poll, they received only 66% of the points of No. 5 Penn State, meaning that unless teams ahead of the Cougars start losing, they might have a hard time making up the deficit. And of course, the AP Poll is not in the BCS standings, but the Coaches Poll is.
BYU is, however, one spot ahead of Boise State, in a race for the lone guaranteed spot for a non-BCS conference team. The Cougars' victory over OU stole Boise's thunder, whose home win over Oregon paled in comparison. The Broncos are still ahead of BYU in the Coaches Poll, but the weakness of their remaining schedule will catch up to them (at least in the computers) should both teams stay undefeated.
With BYU, Boise State, TCU (No. 14) and Utah (No. 15) all in the top 15, the debate over BCS's automatic qualification process will be further intensified. These four Coalition teams (three from the Mountain West) are ahead of the highest rated ACC (Virginia Tech at No. 16) and Big East (Cincinnati at No. 20) teams.
Notre Dame checks in at No. 23, getting its perch solely on the strength of poll numbers. The Irish are ranked Nos. 35, 37 and 56 on the three BCS computers with a median ranking of No. 30 on other computers. As its schedule isn't exactly murderers' row, Notre Dame's BCS chances will be heavily influenced by how much the pollsters fall for its yesteryear mystique.
Sunday, September 6, 2009
What to Do About BYU?
In 1984, BYU went 13-0 and won the national championship - the last consensus national title for any school not in the current BCS conferences. What's largely forgotten is that the Cougars played only four teams that finished with a winning record, the best being Air Force's 8-4.
That won't be the case this year.
Should BYU go undefeated this regular season, its 13th game should be for the BCS national title, because its schedule would be worthy for it.
After upsetting Oklahoma, 14-13, at Cowboys Stadium last night, the Cougars should be ranked in the top five of the polls, the most critical element comprising the BCS standings formula. If they fail to crack the top five, then the Mountain West Conference's mounting grievances against the BCS will have the fiercest argument yet.
Consider -
* Despite being listed as a neutral-site game, last night's affair was a de facto OU home game, with Norman only 200 miles away and the Metroplex a natural habitat for OU alums.
* Never mind that Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford was hurt on the final play from scrimmage in the first half. When the 2008 Heisman winner was playing, OU managed only 10 points.
* In the fourth quarter, after OU got the ball on a turnover at the BYU 27, it failed to score a touchdown to put the game away. The Cougars stuffed the Sooners six times inside the 10 (three times inside the 2) to force a field goal.
* Despite having two 1,000-yard rushers in the backfield, the Sooners ran for only 118 yards. They were outgained by nearly 100 yards as BYU held the ball for almost 38 minutes.
It's unfortunate that Bradford got hurt, but don't kid yourself that OU would've won that game going away had he stayed healthy. BYU earned that victory, fair and square - injuries are part of the game.
BYU should be in the top 5 after this victory, and its remaining schedule is strong enough for the Cougars to make a case for the BCS title game should they stay undefeated. They play Florida State, TCU and Utah, all three teams currently in the AP top 20. By contrast, Florida, everyone's favorite to repeat as BCS champions, will play only two teams that will be in the top 20 in next week's poll (and please spare me the 'but SEC is the toughest conference in the galaxy' fallacy*).
Certainly the season just got started and BYU can easily suffer a loss (or two or three) along the way and render this whole debate moot. But at this point in time, with what's already done, the Cougars deserve recognition as a top 5 team.
One other side effect from BYU's upset win: Two nights ago, Boise State seemed poised to claim a BCS spot, after beating Oregon and with a favorable schedule ahead. But with BYU's victory, the Broncos may finish the regular season undefeated and not get a BCS bowl berth for a second consecutive season.
That would hurt a lot more than a LeGarrette Blount sucker punch.
*In the realm of logic, this is called "begging the question." It usually goes like this:
SEC Apologist: The SEC has the best teams in the country.
SEC Skeptic: How do you know?
SEC Apologist: Because week-in and week-out they have to play the toughest teams in the country.
SEC Skeptic: How do you know these are the toughest teams?
SEC Apologist: Because they play in the SEC, the toughest conference in the country.
This is not to say that the SEC doesn't have good teams, it's just that the league has its bottom feeders like all other leagues. And since top SEC teams get to feast on these weaklings, the argument that their schedules are tougher than any other doesn't hold water.
Do you know when's the last time Florida played a nonconference game against a BCS conference team outside of the state of Florida? Try 1991, at Syracuse, in a 38-21 loss. But this will be the topic for another day.
That won't be the case this year.
Should BYU go undefeated this regular season, its 13th game should be for the BCS national title, because its schedule would be worthy for it.
After upsetting Oklahoma, 14-13, at Cowboys Stadium last night, the Cougars should be ranked in the top five of the polls, the most critical element comprising the BCS standings formula. If they fail to crack the top five, then the Mountain West Conference's mounting grievances against the BCS will have the fiercest argument yet.
Consider -
* Despite being listed as a neutral-site game, last night's affair was a de facto OU home game, with Norman only 200 miles away and the Metroplex a natural habitat for OU alums.
* Never mind that Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford was hurt on the final play from scrimmage in the first half. When the 2008 Heisman winner was playing, OU managed only 10 points.
* In the fourth quarter, after OU got the ball on a turnover at the BYU 27, it failed to score a touchdown to put the game away. The Cougars stuffed the Sooners six times inside the 10 (three times inside the 2) to force a field goal.
* Despite having two 1,000-yard rushers in the backfield, the Sooners ran for only 118 yards. They were outgained by nearly 100 yards as BYU held the ball for almost 38 minutes.
It's unfortunate that Bradford got hurt, but don't kid yourself that OU would've won that game going away had he stayed healthy. BYU earned that victory, fair and square - injuries are part of the game.
BYU should be in the top 5 after this victory, and its remaining schedule is strong enough for the Cougars to make a case for the BCS title game should they stay undefeated. They play Florida State, TCU and Utah, all three teams currently in the AP top 20. By contrast, Florida, everyone's favorite to repeat as BCS champions, will play only two teams that will be in the top 20 in next week's poll (and please spare me the 'but SEC is the toughest conference in the galaxy' fallacy*).
Certainly the season just got started and BYU can easily suffer a loss (or two or three) along the way and render this whole debate moot. But at this point in time, with what's already done, the Cougars deserve recognition as a top 5 team.
One other side effect from BYU's upset win: Two nights ago, Boise State seemed poised to claim a BCS spot, after beating Oregon and with a favorable schedule ahead. But with BYU's victory, the Broncos may finish the regular season undefeated and not get a BCS bowl berth for a second consecutive season.
That would hurt a lot more than a LeGarrette Blount sucker punch.
*In the realm of logic, this is called "begging the question." It usually goes like this:
SEC Apologist: The SEC has the best teams in the country.SEC Skeptic: How do you know?
SEC Apologist: Because week-in and week-out they have to play the toughest teams in the country.
SEC Skeptic: How do you know these are the toughest teams?
SEC Apologist: Because they play in the SEC, the toughest conference in the country.
This is not to say that the SEC doesn't have good teams, it's just that the league has its bottom feeders like all other leagues. And since top SEC teams get to feast on these weaklings, the argument that their schedules are tougher than any other doesn't hold water.
Do you know when's the last time Florida played a nonconference game against a BCS conference team outside of the state of Florida? Try 1991, at Syracuse, in a 38-21 loss. But this will be the topic for another day.
Monday, August 31, 2009
Notes on Preseason BCS Standings
At last, the Guru has published the 2009 BCS Standings, preseason edition. There are a few items of note that may impact the standings throughout the season.
But first, the methodology. This is the third season I'm running a simulated preseason standings, and this model isn't all that different from the '07 and '08 versions. The AP Poll is used in place of the Harris Poll, and as I noted in painstaking detail previously, this is a no-brainer.
Three of the six computers release preseason rankings - Massey, Sagarin and Billingsley. Their ratings are used in the standings. Three others - Colley (mid-September), Anderson & Hester (late September) and Wolfe (mid-October) - don't release theirs until later in the season, so I used the median ranking of each team, from 29 computers, in their place.
Now, onto the observations:
* The top of the standings fairly resembles the two human polls, with Florida well ahead, followed by Texas, Oklahoma and USC. It's worth noting that the computers are already favoring the Trojans over the two Big 12 rivals. USC is barely behind Oklahoma (.0044) and not too far back from Texas (.0160), either. A victory at Ohio State will probably be enough to vault USC into #2 in the BCS standings.
* Ole Miss, the early darling of the human polls, is getting no love from the computers (not to mention the BlogPoll). While Houston Nutt's Rebels are in the top 10 in the Coaches (#10) and AP (#8) polls, it's only #13 in Billingsley, #23 in Massey and #43 (and therefore no points) in Sagarin. Since they don't play anyone of consequence until Oct. 10 against Alabama, it'll stay that way for a while.
* The three highest rated non-BCS teams - Boise State, TCU and Utah - are clustered at #15-#17, roughly corresponding their places in the human polls. Utah is getting a bit more computer juice, as residuals from its undefeated 2008 season, ranking as absurdly high as #3 in Billingsley. It will be a tall order, as usual, to work from this position into any sort of a run at a spot in the BCS championship game.
* Notre Dame is given a modicum of respect by the human polls, at #23 for both. The computers just spat on the Irish - #59 in Billingsley, #51 in Massey, #48 in Sagarin and a median ranking of #47 for all computers. In order to make it into a BCS bowl game, Notre Dame will have to either beat USC or go no worse than 10-2.
* The initial standings include a ridiculous 62 teams, more than half of Division I-A teams. Tulsa rounds out the standings with its single vote in the AP Poll, which trumped the single votes for Michigan (even with all that extra practice time) and Minnesota in the Coaches Poll.
But first, the methodology. This is the third season I'm running a simulated preseason standings, and this model isn't all that different from the '07 and '08 versions. The AP Poll is used in place of the Harris Poll, and as I noted in painstaking detail previously, this is a no-brainer.
Three of the six computers release preseason rankings - Massey, Sagarin and Billingsley. Their ratings are used in the standings. Three others - Colley (mid-September), Anderson & Hester (late September) and Wolfe (mid-October) - don't release theirs until later in the season, so I used the median ranking of each team, from 29 computers, in their place.
Now, onto the observations:
* The top of the standings fairly resembles the two human polls, with Florida well ahead, followed by Texas, Oklahoma and USC. It's worth noting that the computers are already favoring the Trojans over the two Big 12 rivals. USC is barely behind Oklahoma (.0044) and not too far back from Texas (.0160), either. A victory at Ohio State will probably be enough to vault USC into #2 in the BCS standings.
* Ole Miss, the early darling of the human polls, is getting no love from the computers (not to mention the BlogPoll). While Houston Nutt's Rebels are in the top 10 in the Coaches (#10) and AP (#8) polls, it's only #13 in Billingsley, #23 in Massey and #43 (and therefore no points) in Sagarin. Since they don't play anyone of consequence until Oct. 10 against Alabama, it'll stay that way for a while.
* The three highest rated non-BCS teams - Boise State, TCU and Utah - are clustered at #15-#17, roughly corresponding their places in the human polls. Utah is getting a bit more computer juice, as residuals from its undefeated 2008 season, ranking as absurdly high as #3 in Billingsley. It will be a tall order, as usual, to work from this position into any sort of a run at a spot in the BCS championship game.
* Notre Dame is given a modicum of respect by the human polls, at #23 for both. The computers just spat on the Irish - #59 in Billingsley, #51 in Massey, #48 in Sagarin and a median ranking of #47 for all computers. In order to make it into a BCS bowl game, Notre Dame will have to either beat USC or go no worse than 10-2.
* The initial standings include a ridiculous 62 teams, more than half of Division I-A teams. Tulsa rounds out the standings with its single vote in the AP Poll, which trumped the single votes for Michigan (even with all that extra practice time) and Minnesota in the Coaches Poll.
Sunday, August 30, 2009
BCS Weekly News Roundup (Aug. 30)
BYU TAKES DEAD AIM AT OKLAHOMA (Salt Lake Tribune, Aug. 28) - BYU reached or surpassed the 10-win mark for the third straight year, qualified for a bowl game for the fourth straight year and finished the season ranked 25th in the AP poll. Yet, the Cougars "had kind of an empty feeling" last January as they summed up 2008 and started looking ahead to 2009.
COMPUTERS, BCS AND BOISE STATE (BarkBoard.com, Aug. 27) - Boise State has yet to play its first game of the 2009 season but most of us know that this year’s team has the potential of returning to another BCS bowl game. Though the BCS system continues to be chided by fans and many in the media, it is the system we must live with at present.
BCS RATINGS WRACKED FANS' NERVES (Newport News Daily Press, Aug. 27) -
The Bowl Championship Series is one of the most consistently satisfying punching bags in sports. Ten years ago, however, the BCS was in its infancy and only beginning to aggravate college football fans.
APPLY SOME LOGIC TO REVIVE BCS (Dallas Morning News, Aug. 26) - The college football season is a mere 10 days away, even less depending upon your team of choice. As opposed to those of you who would like to see the BCS disappear by means of lethal injection – some e-mailers get so overheated I think they would prefer it suffer a more painful demise – I simply want to rehabilitate it.
SI GOES AFTER COACHES' SECRET BALLOTS (SI.com, Aug. 25) - SI.com will file records requests with the employer of each of the 51 public school coaches who vote in the 2009 poll. If the schools comply with the law, we should get a look at every ballot. Legal action may be required if schools refuse to comply. Every ballot we receive will be published.
Monday, August 24, 2009
Why the AP Poll Still Matters
The Associated Press top 25 was released over the weekend. And it didn't make much of a splash aside from that Florida got an unprecedented 58 of 60 first-place votes.
But don't be fooled. Even in the BCS Era, the AP Poll still matters. A lot.
Ever since the AP asked (or more accurately, demanded) out of the BCS standings after the 2004 season, the most venerable and prestigious college football poll seemed to have taken a backseat. To the coaches poll, for sure. But also to the Harris Poll, which was founded for no other reason than to replace AP in the BCS standings.
On so many levels, however, the AP Poll is still very influential:
1. It has more credibility than any other poll: The AP poll began in 1936, long before the coaches poll (1950) and never mind the Harris poll (2005). It has released a weekly ranking with a final poll without interruption, through war and peace. Its voters' identities are disclosed to the public, as are their ballots. Contrast that with the decidedly non-transparent process of the Coaches Poll.
The Associated Press continues to crown its champions, regardless of other polls or arrangements. It's been around long before the BCS and it might outlast the BCS. There's always a possibility that the BCS may disband after the next contract runs out - even if it's a slim one. But the AP Poll? It'll always be there.
2. It's still used by most of the media: Don't forget, the AP is the media poll. All print publications and most of the electronic media use the AP poll as a reference. The purpose of the BCS standings is to produce two teams for the BCS national title game and other BCS bowl games, as evidenced by its lack of a season-ending standings. Case-in-point: Utah finished No. 2 in the AP Poll and No. 3 in the Coaches Poll last season. Guess which one was always cited in this spring's BCS discussions?
3. The Harris Poll is basically an AP Poll surrogate: Never mind that the Harris Poll doesn't come out until late September and its voters are supposedly keeping an open mind by watching a few weeks' worth of games before they vote.
Make no mistake, Harris voters are greatly influenced by the AP poll. They can't help it. They have to start somewhere.
AP Poll Archive (one of the Guru's most favored go-to sources) did the research. And as you can see, there's not much of a difference between Harris Poll rankings and the AP ones. In fact, in its four seasons of existence, there has been just three minor variations in its final regular-season top 10, and none among the top four. In 2008, the two polls had identical top 10s at the end of the regular season.
4. AP still crowns a champion: Who was the national champion in 2003? The majority of the country would acknowlege a split, with many siding with USC over LSU (to the eternal consternation of Tigers fans). Last year, had Oklahoma defeated Florida in the BCS title game, the AP might've crowned Utah as the champion over OU, who would've been the BCS champion.
For as long as AP crowns its own champion, there is always a possibility of a split title. And the AP champion would be every bit as legitimate as the BCS champion. Look at it another way - The BCS merely produces a champion for the Coaches Poll, one that by all counts an inferior one to the AP Poll.
This list of national champions will always be the one that shows up in your hometown newspaper (unless you're in Louisiana) - for as long as newspapers exist. That's why the AP Poll still matters.
But don't be fooled. Even in the BCS Era, the AP Poll still matters. A lot.
Ever since the AP asked (or more accurately, demanded) out of the BCS standings after the 2004 season, the most venerable and prestigious college football poll seemed to have taken a backseat. To the coaches poll, for sure. But also to the Harris Poll, which was founded for no other reason than to replace AP in the BCS standings.
On so many levels, however, the AP Poll is still very influential:
1. It has more credibility than any other poll: The AP poll began in 1936, long before the coaches poll (1950) and never mind the Harris poll (2005). It has released a weekly ranking with a final poll without interruption, through war and peace. Its voters' identities are disclosed to the public, as are their ballots. Contrast that with the decidedly non-transparent process of the Coaches Poll.
The Associated Press continues to crown its champions, regardless of other polls or arrangements. It's been around long before the BCS and it might outlast the BCS. There's always a possibility that the BCS may disband after the next contract runs out - even if it's a slim one. But the AP Poll? It'll always be there.
2. It's still used by most of the media: Don't forget, the AP is the media poll. All print publications and most of the electronic media use the AP poll as a reference. The purpose of the BCS standings is to produce two teams for the BCS national title game and other BCS bowl games, as evidenced by its lack of a season-ending standings. Case-in-point: Utah finished No. 2 in the AP Poll and No. 3 in the Coaches Poll last season. Guess which one was always cited in this spring's BCS discussions?
3. The Harris Poll is basically an AP Poll surrogate: Never mind that the Harris Poll doesn't come out until late September and its voters are supposedly keeping an open mind by watching a few weeks' worth of games before they vote.
Make no mistake, Harris voters are greatly influenced by the AP poll. They can't help it. They have to start somewhere.
AP Poll Archive (one of the Guru's most favored go-to sources) did the research. And as you can see, there's not much of a difference between Harris Poll rankings and the AP ones. In fact, in its four seasons of existence, there has been just three minor variations in its final regular-season top 10, and none among the top four. In 2008, the two polls had identical top 10s at the end of the regular season.
4. AP still crowns a champion: Who was the national champion in 2003? The majority of the country would acknowlege a split, with many siding with USC over LSU (to the eternal consternation of Tigers fans). Last year, had Oklahoma defeated Florida in the BCS title game, the AP might've crowned Utah as the champion over OU, who would've been the BCS champion.
For as long as AP crowns its own champion, there is always a possibility of a split title. And the AP champion would be every bit as legitimate as the BCS champion. Look at it another way - The BCS merely produces a champion for the Coaches Poll, one that by all counts an inferior one to the AP Poll.
This list of national champions will always be the one that shows up in your hometown newspaper (unless you're in Louisiana) - for as long as newspapers exist. That's why the AP Poll still matters.
Friday, August 14, 2009
BCS Weekly News Roundup (Aug. 14)
BCS REFORM FACES TALL ORDER IN CONGRESS (Associated Press, Aug. 13) - For years, lawmakers have railed against the Bowl Championship Series, calling it an unfair way to select a national champion. A lot of righteous thundering, however, has not yielded anything on the legislative front.
SEC'S NEW MEDIA POLICY HITS A SNAG (Birmingham News, Aug. 12) - Facing a public relations backlash, the SEC plans to "tweak" elements of its new controversial media policy that was distributed to the 12 schools last Thursday.
UTAH SCHOOLS SCHEDULE BCS-TOUGH (Deseret News. Aug. 11) - Schedule easy to chalk up wins and look BCS-pretty? Or buckle down and play somebody to push your program forward. That debate has taken a turn for the latter with BYU and Utah.
WHO WANTS TO GET RID OF PRESEASON POLLS? (Virginian-Pilot, Aug. 10) - The preseason college football coaches' poll is an example of cockeyed, tradition-trumping fairness. The preseason rankings skew everything in a sport that selects its national-championship contenders, in large part, with guesswork disguised as a popular vote.
NCAA vs. USC: WHO BLINKS FIRST? (AOL Fanhouse, Aug. 7) - This is a game of chicken. Down on one end of the street is USC, revving its engine. On the other end is the NCAA, doing the same. And they are about to start barreling toward each other. Which one will chicken out?
Monday, August 10, 2009
What the Coaches Poll Wrought
It's the first preseason poll of significance, and it's the first element of the 2009 BCS standings to be revealed. So when the USA Today Coaches Poll was released last Friday, it was immediately taken apart and analyzed.
Yeah, it may be a preseason poll, but don't think for a moment that it means little.
While the top of the poll yielded little surprise - defending BCS national champion Florida checked in at No. 1 - it's apparent that Coalition members (i.e. non-BCS schools) will have just about no chance for a spot in the BCS title game, and that one loss will doom their shot at even a BCS bowl appearance.
How can that be so quickly ordained after a short glance of the preseason poll, you ask?
Simple. The preseason poll in college football is a lot like the starting grid in a Formula One car race. There are few opportunities for passes, so where you start often times determine where you'll finish.
Four Coalition teams are in the top 25, led by Boise State at No. 16. This does not bode well for those teams (also Mountain West members TCU, Utah and BYU) to have any shot at the BCS national title game. In the past five years, only teams ranked in the preseason top 10 in the Coaches Poll made it to the BCS title game. This year, 9 of the top 10 teams will face each other at least once before the halfway point of the season, which means even a loss will keep these teams in the top 10, ahead of any unbeaten Coalition teams.
What about Coalition teams playing themselves into national title contention? After all, doesn't BYU open the season at Oklahoma?
Yes, but here's the rub. Even if the Cougars pull off a monumental upset at Norman, will they vault all the way up into the top 5? Not likely, not from where they start at No. 24. And a loss effectively ends BYU's BCS bowl hopes after one game, even if it goes on to win the MWC championship.
Contrast that to the Big East, one of the six BCS conferences. There's not a team from that conference that may even be in the top 10 by the end of the season (the highest preseason ranking is Cincinnati, at No. 29), but it's guaranteed a BCS bowl berth. Of course, based on our own research, the Big East is still well ahead of the MWC in overall performance - but there was little logic to grant the Big East a spot in the BCS for the next five years, as it was done before the start of this season.
Some might be quick to jump on a potential conspiracy by BCS conference coaches to keep non-BCS teams down in the polls to ensure as many BCS teams get the 10 BCS bowl spots as possible. But that link is tenuous at best.
There are 59 voters in the coaches poll and 25 of them (42%) are from non-BCS conferences. That roughly corresponds with the actual proportion of non-BCS teams (54 of 120, 45%) in Division I-A. If BCS conference coaches are keeping the non-BCS teams down in the polls, then the Coalition coaches are not exactly doing a bang-up job of propping up their brethren.
But just how everybody is actually voting? We'll never know. As usual, the Coaches Poll is secret ballots until the final poll of the season. And after this season, they intend to revert back to secret ballots for the entire season, including the final poll, over the protests of the BCS commissioners. So in essence, it remains the most controversial and non-transparent part of the BCS formula, and it accounts for one-third of the total.
There is a simple solution to this. After 2009, the BCS must dump the Coaches Poll.
Yeah, it may be a preseason poll, but don't think for a moment that it means little.
While the top of the poll yielded little surprise - defending BCS national champion Florida checked in at No. 1 - it's apparent that Coalition members (i.e. non-BCS schools) will have just about no chance for a spot in the BCS title game, and that one loss will doom their shot at even a BCS bowl appearance.
How can that be so quickly ordained after a short glance of the preseason poll, you ask?
Simple. The preseason poll in college football is a lot like the starting grid in a Formula One car race. There are few opportunities for passes, so where you start often times determine where you'll finish.
Four Coalition teams are in the top 25, led by Boise State at No. 16. This does not bode well for those teams (also Mountain West members TCU, Utah and BYU) to have any shot at the BCS national title game. In the past five years, only teams ranked in the preseason top 10 in the Coaches Poll made it to the BCS title game. This year, 9 of the top 10 teams will face each other at least once before the halfway point of the season, which means even a loss will keep these teams in the top 10, ahead of any unbeaten Coalition teams.
What about Coalition teams playing themselves into national title contention? After all, doesn't BYU open the season at Oklahoma?
Yes, but here's the rub. Even if the Cougars pull off a monumental upset at Norman, will they vault all the way up into the top 5? Not likely, not from where they start at No. 24. And a loss effectively ends BYU's BCS bowl hopes after one game, even if it goes on to win the MWC championship.
Contrast that to the Big East, one of the six BCS conferences. There's not a team from that conference that may even be in the top 10 by the end of the season (the highest preseason ranking is Cincinnati, at No. 29), but it's guaranteed a BCS bowl berth. Of course, based on our own research, the Big East is still well ahead of the MWC in overall performance - but there was little logic to grant the Big East a spot in the BCS for the next five years, as it was done before the start of this season.
Some might be quick to jump on a potential conspiracy by BCS conference coaches to keep non-BCS teams down in the polls to ensure as many BCS teams get the 10 BCS bowl spots as possible. But that link is tenuous at best.
There are 59 voters in the coaches poll and 25 of them (42%) are from non-BCS conferences. That roughly corresponds with the actual proportion of non-BCS teams (54 of 120, 45%) in Division I-A. If BCS conference coaches are keeping the non-BCS teams down in the polls, then the Coalition coaches are not exactly doing a bang-up job of propping up their brethren.
But just how everybody is actually voting? We'll never know. As usual, the Coaches Poll is secret ballots until the final poll of the season. And after this season, they intend to revert back to secret ballots for the entire season, including the final poll, over the protests of the BCS commissioners. So in essence, it remains the most controversial and non-transparent part of the BCS formula, and it accounts for one-third of the total.
There is a simple solution to this. After 2009, the BCS must dump the Coaches Poll.
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Remaking the BCS Formula
Part I of the Troubleshooting the BCS Series
After another season of high-wire acts, the temptation of course is to blow the BCS to smithereens and start over. But that's neither practicable nor desirable.
It's not practicable because the current BCS contract does not run out until after the 2013 season, so any wholesale change toward a playoff now or in the foreseeable future is just not reality based. It's not desirable because without thoroughly considering all the issues - logistics and otherwise - any move made in haste would only invite more disaster.
There is something that could be done - immediately - about the BCS within the framework of the current structure. It's possible to implement changes even before the next season, as the BCS has proved to be quite nimble when it comes to making up stuff as we go - witness this past season's sudden decision to allow three conference teams to be included in BCS bowl games.
When the commissioners gather for their annual meeting in April, instead of patting each other on the back and passing out vapid congratulations, they would be better off re-examining the BCS. And the best place to start would be the formula that creates the BCS standings.
The formula in its current form has survived since 2004, with the only change being that the Harris Poll replaced the Associated Press poll before the 2005 season. The current formula, created in the aftermath of the USC-LSU split championship in 2003, places overwhelming emphasis on the human polls. This is troubling because the most unstable and subjective part of the formula, naturally, is the human polls. And even more troubling is the utter lack of transparency of these two polls.
That, and a few other things, may be fixed rather quickly and easily. So here's how:
1. Bring transparency into the polls - Neither the coaches poll nor the Harris poll reveals its weekly voting results until the final week of the regular season, when the final BCS standings are released. Any system that's worth its salt demands accountability. Imagine if your congressman never had to reveal how he voted until the last bill of his term. That just won't do.
It's easy enough for the BCS to demand the Harris poll make its ballots public every week. The BCS commissioned the Harris poll, therefore owns it. If any voter objects to this new guideline, then see you later. There will be plenty of people willing and able to vote in the Harris poll.
The coaches poll is the more thorny issue. For years the coaches have resisted making their ballots open to the public and it took a near act of congress to get them to reveal the final poll. And since the BCS champion ultimately is merely the coaches poll champion, there's not a whole lot the BCS can do about it, right?
Not really. I believe there is a creative solution. The BCS commissioners can simply issue an ultimatum to their coaches to open the ballots, or else risking to have their votes become even more irrelevant. I'm sure the Black Coaches & Administrators will be more than happy to step in with their own poll. The BCA is not happy with college football's hiring practices - and rightly so - but this will be a way to increase its visibility. For the BCS, this will be a public relations coup. So if the coaches don't play ball, simply have their poll replaced by a new BCA poll.
2. Eliminate tiebreaker madness - What happened in the Big 12 Conference this year is simply unacceptable. The BCS formula was never conceived to determine anything but the top two teams for the BCS title game. The easy thing to do here is for the commissioners to police their own conferences to make sure the BCS formula will never come close to being any sort of a tiebreaker ever again.
3. Allow margin of victory back in the computers - Following the 2001 season, in a bit of a knee-jerk reaction, MoV was purged from all computer rankings ostensibly to discourage teams from running up the score. The problem is, the human voters didn't get the memo. The first fallout from this decision took place in 2003, when Oklahoma, after gotten blown out by four touchdowns in the Big 12 championship game, still stayed No. 1 in the BCS standings thanks to the computers now unable to distinguish a one-point loss from a 28-point rout.
Computer programmers should write their own formulas. The BCS has no business telling what these guys should do. It should demand to audit the results throughout the season, but leave the programming to the professionals. After all, all computer programs had built in a safeguard against excessive scoring, with either 21 points or 28 points as the threshold.
Computer rankings become much more pure and accurate when margin of victory is taken into consideration. Just think about this for a moment: If you were betting your house on a game, would you dare to look at only a team's won-loss records but not how much they won and lost by?
4. Re-calibrate the computer ratings - One of the dumbest things about the BCS formula is it mixes percentages with ordinal numbers. For the human polls, it counts actual votes for teams instead of rankings; but for computers, it uses the rankings only. So when a team falls from 2nd to 3rd in the computers, the consequences are disastrous; but when a team falls from 2nd to 3rd in the polls, it could be just about a dead-heat, as far as the BCS standings are concerned.
The BCS should keep the human part of the formula the way it is but normalize the computer rankings so they become compatible with one another numerically. An easy way to do this is to fix the top team at 1.000 and derive percentages for other teams based on their respective computer scores.
I checked all six BCS computer systems and found that their scores are fairly uniform. Teams ranked 10th score about .86 to .92 points and teams ranked at No. 25 score about .74-.81. What this does is that it stabilizes the system and reduces the wild swings toward the end of the season when a games not even involving the principals holds such sway as the Cincinnati-Hawaii game did at the end of the 2008 regular season.
5. Re-balance the formula - If steps 1-4 are taken, then we can move on to this, which should bring objectivity back to the formula and take some pressure off the voters. I mean, if we're just gonna let the voters decide everything, why even bother with a formula - we can just use the AP poll instead. After all, since the adoption of the current formula, the AP has produced the same top two teams every season anyway.
By going 50-50, the new standings also give the non-BCS teams a fighting chance. The human polls are always stacked against non-BCS teams, but the computers give them a fairer shake. And if we ever move toward at least a plus-one system involving four teams, then a team like Utah in 2008 might have a shot at qualifying.
Did I say Plus-One? Ah, you'll have to come back for Part II.
Friday, December 5, 2008
A Split Title for Florida, AP-Style
The BCS race will come down to the last game of the regular season. And we don't mean the Big 12 championship game between Oklahoma and Missouri.
The last few digits on the BCS standings, the ones between a place in the BCS title game and a Fiesta or Sugar Bowl berth, will be decided on the field of Aloha Stadium. In a game between Cincinnati and Hawaii.
This is not an alarmist declaration. It's a fact.
Go to Wes Colley's computer, and play God - and see for yourself. A Hawaii win may be enough to provide safe passage for the Gators as long as they win the SEC championship game. A Cincinnati victory, then Texas just might get its coveted rematch with Oklahoma.
This isn't the first time that a BCS title race is settled in Honolulu, in the very last game of the season. In 2003, a Hawaii loss to Boise State cost USC just enough computer and (the now-defunct) strength-of-schedule points to keep the No. 1-ranked Trojans out of the BCS title game, setting the stage for the first split title in the BCS Era.
We may have an encore in 2008.
If Florida beats Alabama and somehow finishes No. 3 in the BCS standings, then the Gators may very well play for the AP title in the Sugar Bowl. Now ranked No. 2 in the AP poll, Florida is a lock for the top ranking should it topple the Tide in the SEC title game. And no top-ranked team in the AP has ever lost its position after winning its bowl game.
Who will Florida face, in that scenario? The best the Gators could hope for is undefeated Utah in the Urban Meyer Bowl. That matchup also gives the Utes an outside shot of stealing the AP title if they can upset the Gators. If the Fiesta Bowl decides to spoil the party by taking the Utes, then the Sugar would end up with Alabama (in a rematch), Boise State or Cincinnati.
(The Guru has checked with BCS Administrator Bill Hancock and he has confirmed that in the event the BCS title game is an all-Big 12 affair, the Fiesta will have the first two picks.)
But let's deal with how and why Florida might not get to the BCS title game, even with a victory.
Here are the scenarios:
1. Alabama and Oklahoma win: Alabama vs. Oklahoma. There is zero chance for Texas to jump OU, even if the Sooners win a squeaker.
2. Alabama and Missouri win: Alabama vs. Texas. Also a no-doubter.
3. Florida and Missouri win: Florida vs. Texas. Take this to the bank as well.
4. Florida and Oklahoma win: Mathematically the most likely scenario and also the most uncertain. This is where the Cincinnati-Hawaii game comes in. If Hawaii wins, it's 95% Florida-Oklahoma, 5% Texas-Oklahoma. If Cincinnati wins, it's 60% Florida-Oklahoma, 40% Texas-Oklahoma.
Whoa!
Well, let's break down the standings. Florida is now a distant fourth, but should make up significant ground with a win over top-ranked and undefeated Alabama. Where Florida needs to catch up the most is in the computer rankings. This is where they stand now:
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Oklahoma .980
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Texas .940
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Florida . 820
Following scenario No. 4, AND a victory by underdog and host Hawaii, this is the projection:
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Oklahoma .990
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Texas .930
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Florida .930
If the Gators can achieve a dead-heat with Texas, or close to it, then their superior poll rankings will put them over the top.
Following scenario No. 4, AND a victory by favored Cincinnati, this is the projection:
-
Oklahoma 1.000
-
Texas .940
-
Florida .910
That's where it gets complicated, and the voters will wield the hammer. The question is, do they know how to use it?
If the voters defect to Florida for the top-ranking, en masse on both polls, then the Gators will be in. But if they divide the votes three ways between Florida, Texas and Oklahoma, then the Gators would be in trouble. Furthermore, if some of the voters are trying to mete out their own justice in the Big 12 tiebreaker post ex facto, putting Texas ahead of Oklahoma on their ballots, then they'll only hurt ... Florida.
The Gators need the voters to put the Sooners in as a solid No. 2, creating some distance between themselves and Texas. They also want voters to put USC in the top 3 to further wedge down the Longhorns. So when it comes to the Big 12 title game, Florida wants an OU blowout so the Sooners can siphon off more votes from Texas.
Florida is already No. 2 in the Harris poll, so room for improvement there is less dramatic. The Gators need to - and should - finish No. 1 there with a victory over Alabama, and then they'd hope for a 70- to 100-point gap between themselves and Texas.
The coaches poll is where it gets tricky. The Gators are No. 4 there right now. They need to make a quantum leap there. If they finish behind Texas in that poll, they'd be in big trouble. A virtual three-way tie doesn't help, either. They need at least half of the 61 coaches put them No. 1 - and the rest to either split their votes between OU and UT, if not outright favor OU - to git 'er done.
All that illustrates just how important the Cincinnati-Hawaii game will be. Florida fans might want to stay up a little later to sleep a little easier. They can hope for the Bearcats, a freshly-minted BCS bowl team, to spend a little more time lost in the sights and sounds of Waikiki than worry about the resurgent Warriors. After starting the season 1-3, Hawaii has won six of eight - including the last three - to become bowl-eligible.
Longhorns fans, on the other hand, would want Hawaii to feel self-satisfied with the turnaround and be exposed once again by a BCS conference power, as it did in the disastrous Sugar Bowl last year. Otherwise, the AP title may be all Texas has to hope for.
With so much on the line, then, it's imperative for you to know whom to root for, and how much. So here's the breakdown:
Alabama - Roll Tide.
Oklahoma - Boomer Sooner.
Texas - If Alabama wins, root for Missouri. If Florida is winning, root for a close game. If Florida wins, root for Missouri, or at least a close game. And Cincinnati.
Florida - Go Gators, of course. In the Big 12 game, if Mizzou isn't going to pull it out, then you want OU to pour it on. And of course, Hawaii.
And be sure to say Mahalo if the Warriors do pull it out.
===
The Guru's projected BCS bowl games -
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BCS championship: Oklahoma vs. Florida
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Rose Bowl: USC vs. Penn State
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Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Utah
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Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Ohio State
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Orange Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech
P.S. And here's the Texas AP scenario: If OU wins a close one over Florida, the 'Horns may potentially claim the AP crown if they can stay ahead of the Sooners in the AP poll this week. They are only 8 points ahead in the latest poll. Of course, this gives Utah a chance as well.
Saturday, November 29, 2008
The Envelope, Please ...
(Late update added to provide more robust data, the analysis remains unchanged)
This is probably the most difficult projection the Guru has ever had to do. But here goes ...
No. 2 SHOULD BE Oklahoma.
But will it be? That's entirely up to the voters.
Logically, Oklahoma should be No. 2. But if the BCS is about logic, then it wouldn't even exist. And with all these voters - 175 in all, if they all vote - having foisted upon them a responsibility that they neither desired nor deserved, there really is no telling where they're going to go.
Nevertheless, they're asked to decide on the Big 12 tiebreaker, as the winner of the South Division will be determined by the BCS standings, among Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech. Whoever gets into the Big 12 title game will be the prohibitive favorite to beat Missouri and have the inside track to the BCS title game, against the SEC title game winner between Florida and Alabama.
Well, let's examine those three Big 12 South contenders, side-by-side:
1. Against Big 12 South teams:
Oklahoma Beat ...
at Baylor, 49-17
at Oklahoma State, 61-41
at Texas A&M, 66-28
Cumulative Score: 176-86
Point Differential: +90
Texas Beat ...
Baylor, 45-21
Oklahoma State, 28-24
Texas A&M, 49-9
Cumulative Score: 122-54
Point Differential: +68
Texas Tech Beat ...
Baylor, 35-28
Oklahoma State, 56-20
at Texas A&M, 43-25
Cumulative Score: 134-73
Point Differential: +61
Advantage: Oklahoma.
2. Against all other common opponents:
Only Kansas played all three and this is how it fared:
Lost to Texas Tech, 63-21
Lost to Texas, 35-7
Lost at Oklahoma, 45-31
Advantage: Texas Tech.
3. None-conference opponents:
Oklahoma
Chattanooga (I-AA), 1-11
No. 16 Cincinnati (Big East Champion), 10-2
at Washington, 0-11
No. 14 TCU, 10-2
Cumulative Record: 20-15 (I-A only)
Bowl Teams: 2
Texas
Florida Atlantic, 6-6
at UTEP, 5-7
Arkansas, 5-7
Rice, 9-3
Cumulative Record: 25-23
Bowl Teams: 1
Texas Tech
Eastern Washington (I-AA), 6-5
at Nevada, 7-5
SMU, 1-11
UMass (I-AA), 7-5
Cumulative Record: 8-16 (I-A only)
Bowl Teams: 1
The Sooners did play at winless Washington, but they beat two teams expected to be in the top 15 of the BCS standings. In total, OU beat four teams ranked in the projected BCS top 15. Or put it another way, these 15 teams had a total of 18 losses, and OU is responsible for doling out four of them, twice as many as Texas, Texas Tech and USC, the only other teams with multiple wins vs. the top 15. Advantage: Oklahoma.
4. Head-to-head: Texas wants to talk about beating OU, 45-35, true, but this is not a pure head-to-head situation, it's a three-way tie and a circular argument. Texas Tech has to be included in every discussion because we're trying to break a three-way tie. That Oklahoma routed the Red Raiders is a credit to the Sooners, not an opportunity to dismiss Tech.
And just for logic's sake, the fact that Texas beat OU on a neutral field is a classic non-sequitur. One may deduce that Texas would've beaten OU in Austin, but nothing more - so essentially each team WOULD'VE won at home. The following is how these three teams did against each other, the research courtesy of our friends at Saurian Sagacity:
Oklahoma
Points Scored: 100
Points Against: 66
Net Points: 34
Total Yards: 1060
Total Yards Against: 844
Net Yards: 216
Texas
Points Scored: 78
Points Against: 74
Net Points: 4
Total Yards: 812
Total Yards Against: 1014
Net Yards: -202
Texas Tech
Points Scored: 60
Points Against: 98
Net Points: -38
Total Yards: 985
Total Yards Against: 999
Net Yards: -14
Taken in its totality, it's rather obvious that Oklahoma is the most impressive in the head-to-head results. Advantage: Oklahoma.
If last week's poll results stay relatively stable - given that every team in the top 10 either won or was idle - this is how the computer rankings should break down:
1. Alabama (.970), 2. Texas (.960), 3. Oklahoma (.940), 4. Florida (.880), 5. Utah (.830).
And the BCS standings would look like this:
1. Alabama (.987), 2. Oklahoma (.926), 3. Texas (.921), 4. Florida (.909), 5. USC (.797).
The biggest loser this weekend, without a doubt, is USC. The Trojans not only don't have a shot at the BCS title game, their AP title hopes also evaporated with Oregon State's loss to Oregon. By being forced to play in the Rose Bowl against Penn State, there is little chance for USC to claim the AP title, as opposed to a Fiesta Bowl matchup against either Oklahoma or Texas.
So, assuming the voters actually do their homework and not go nuts or conspiracy-happy, here's the Guru's projection of the penultimate BCS standings:
1. Alabama, 2. Oklahoma, 3. Texas, 4. Florida, 5. USC, 6. Utah, 7. Penn State, 8. Texas Tech, 9. Boise State, 10. Ohio State, 11. TCU, 12. Ball State, 13. Cincinnati, 14. Oklahoma State, 15. Oregon.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Eyes of BCS Are Upon Mack Brown
Coach Mack Brown, how are you gonna vote?
That's the 17 million dollar question that Texas coach Mack Brown might have to answer to. Brown just may end up casting the deciding vote on who gets to play in the Big 12 title game - and by extension, the BCS national championship game.
How? As this has been rehashed many times now: Brown has a vote in the coaches poll whereas Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops does not. The coaches do not have to reveal their ballots next week, but that's when the tiebreaker for the Big 12 South will be decided, via the BCS standings. (We're assuming that Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma are going to win as favorites, please stop flooding the Guru about all the other probabilities - I'm WELL AWARE of them.)
If Brown drops Oklahoma from where he had them last week (presumably in the top 5, but he's not telling) to 10th, 20th or even entirely off the ballot ("Oops, did I forget to put OU on the ballot? That must've been an oversight, darn!"), it will have a profound - if not deciding - impact on the BCS title picture.
Based on the Guru's projections - assuming the human voters stay mostly static with their ballots - this is how the BCS standings will look should Alabama defeat Auburn in the Iron Bowl:
1. Alabama, 2. Oklahoma (.940 computer, .9258 overall), 3. Texas (.960 computer, .9209 overall), 4. Florida (.840 computer, .8955 overall).
If Brown leaves Oklahoma off the ballot, OU will end up at .9208 - yep, you guessed it, 1/10,000th of a point behind Texas and voila! Hook 'em Horns to the Big 12 title game! Even if he just nudges the Sooners to 10th, a tiny bit of movement in Texas' favor elsewhere in the polls will do the trick just as well.
You know, like calling to ask a favor from a friend or something. Yes, we're just getting warmed up.
The coaches' poll is such a conflict of interest cesspool, it's amazing how the whole season just might come down to who puts whom where in their ballot. No fewer than seven Big 12 coaches have a vote in the coaches poll, including Brown:
Art Briles (Baylor), Gene Chizik (Iowa State), Dan Hawkins (Colorado), Mike Leach (Texas Tech), Bo Pelini (Nebraska) and Gary Pinkel (Missouri).
Four other coaches with teams in Texas or Oklahoma also vote:
Todd Dodge (North Texas), Todd Graham (Tulsa), Gary Patterson (TCU) and Mike Price (UTEP).
Here's where the intrigue begins. Brown undoubtedly has a few guys on his speed dial if it comes down to the nuclear option Saturday night: Chizik is a former assistant, Dodge is a former Texas quarterback and San Jose State's Dick Tomey was an assistant in between head jobs at Arizona and SJSU and helped Brown win a Rose Bowl in 2005.
But Stoops, who probably now regrets giving up his vote after last season, has a formidable coaching tree and allies himself. Both Leach and Pelini were his assistants, and he can probably count on Steve Spurrier, his former boss at Florida whose own son Steve Jr. tutored under Stoops.
Then there are a few with their own murky agendas: Urban Meyer, whose Florida team is no lock for a top 2 spot even if it wins its final two games, may want to make sure to keep BOTH Texas and OU down. Cal's Jeff Tedford, who no doubt remembers how Brown screwed his Golden Bears out of that 2005 Rose Bowl berth, might decide it's high time to exact a little sweet revenge.
And this is just scratching the surface. I'm sure there are other relationships that run beneath the obvious; and don't forget the Harris poll, whose 114 voters are full of former players, coaches and administrators, whose allegiances run the gamut.
That's why the secret ballot (for both coaches and Harris voters) is a terrible idea. Using the BCS standings to break conference ties is just icing on the crappy cake.
A lot of this intrigue, however, might melt away - at least for this week - if Auburn upsets Alabama. This is how the BCS standings should look if the Tigers take their seventh straight Iron Bowl (again, assuming the ballots stay static - slotting each team one spot higher):
1. Oklahoma (.970 computer, .9625 overall), 2. Texas (.980 computer, .9542 overall), 3. Florida (.890 computer, .9388 overall).
This way, the Sooners will have more of a security blanket against voter shenanigans. And Florida will creep a little closer to the top 2 spot. Of course, this sets up a potential all-Big 12 BCS championship game with a rematch between Oklahoma and Texas.
We'll have to leave that topic for next week. One controversy at a time, please.
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