BCS Review Series: 2008, SEC Claims High Ground in Narrative

Part 11 of a series: Over the next few weeks, I will be reviewing each of the 16 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. Here is a look back at who got lucky, who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear throughout December and January.

Part 1: 1998, A New Beginning for College Football

Part 2: 1999, FSU Ends Michael Vick's Quest for Perfection

Part 3: 2000, FSU-Miami Sows Seeds of Controversy

Part 4: 2001, Nebraska Fiasco Rocks College Football

Part 5: 2002, Controversy On-Field Mars Perfect Ending

Part 6: 2003, Nightmare of Split National Championship

Part 7: 2004, Unbeaten Auburn Left Out in the Cold

Part 8: 2005, Perfect Season Ends With Epic at Rose Bowl

Part 9: 2006, Dawn of SEC's Reign in College Football

Part 10: 2007, LSU Goes "Undefeated in Regulation"

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Two consecutive blowout victories in the BCS championship game (both over Ohio State) helped to jump-start the narrative of SEC supremacy. Now self-branded as "the toughest conference in college football," the SEC's dominance in perception became that much more evident.

At the end of the regular season, seven BCS conference teams finished with one loss each, and two others—Utah and Boise State—went undefeated. But just as it was in 2007, when five major conference champions vied for one BCS title game slot, in 2008 the SEC came out on top yet again.

For the second time in three years, Florida made it to the BCS title game, this time despite a loss at home to Ole Miss. The Gators sunk to No. 15 in the BCS standings, all but seemingly out of it, after the late-September loss to the Rebels. Yet after defeating previously-unbeaten Alabama in the SEC title game, Florida had a date in Miami with Oklahoma in the BCS title game.

USC wasn't so lucky after also an early-September loss at Oregon State. The Trojans had opened the season with a resounding 35-3 pounding of No. 3 Ohio State at the Coliseum. But despite running the table the rest of the way—including three shutouts and five other games where they gave up just one score—that lone loss to the Beavers proved fatal to their title aspirations.

The same was the case for Penn State, which suffered its lone loss on a last-second field at Iowa in early November. It was the second time in four years that Joe Paterno's team was one play away from a perfect regular season. And just like in 2005, the Nittany Lions never got a whiff of the BCS title game.

Then there was the trio of Big 12 teams that managed to deal each other a single loss in a Reservoir Dogs-style Mexican standoff. Texas defeated Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout. Texas Tech shot down the Longhorns on a last-second TD catch by Michael Crabtree. Then Oklahoma slaughtered the Red Raiders to complete the three-way tie for first place in the Big 12 South.


The Sooners edged Texas (and Texas Tech) in the penultimate BCS standings, thanks entirely to superior computer rankings, earning a trip to the Big 12 title game, where they routed Missouri to earn a spot in the BCS title game. Longhorns coach Mack Brown, who had swiped a Rose Bowl berth in 2004 when the BCS standings worked in his favor, now had his comeuppance.

At the end, the team that had the most amount of legitimate grievance might've been Utah, which finished the season as the lone undefeated team. The Utes dominated Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, beating the Tide (31-17) worse than Florida did in the SEC title game (31-20). In the final AP poll, 16 of the 65 voters cast their ballots with Utah No. 1, but that wasn't enough to earn a split championship after Tim Tebow and Co. held off the turnover-prone Sooners in the BCS title game.

Final BCS Standings: 1. Oklahoma, 2. Florida, 3. Texas, 4. Alabama, 5. USC, 6. Utah, 7. Texas Tech.

Likely four-team playoff: Oklahoma vs. Utah; Florida vs. USC.
With preference for conference champions and that Utah had a better resume than fellow unbeaten Boise State, these four teams would've been the most solid picks, even without the benefit of hindsight.

Controversies

BCS standings as a tiebreaker: The BCS standings were created for the sole purpose of matching up the top two-ranked teams to play for the BCS title. Yet, by the mid-2000s, conferences began using the standings to break ties either for the conference title or within divisions. This misapplication had its worst consequences in 2008, when OU just nudged Texas—a team it had lost to—for a spot in the Big 12 title game and, ultimately, a spot in the BCS title game.

This misuse would continue, without being discouraged by the BCS brass, until the end of the BCS era. In fact, even conferences that had no part in the BCS tried to use it to break ties, leading to the comical Conference USA debacle in 2013.

Boise State snub: For the second time in the BCS era, Boise State went undefeated and was denied a BCS bowl berth, also the sixth time it finished with either zero or one loss and had to settle for a minor bowl.

The Broncos were ranked No. 9 in the final BCS standings, yet they weren't guaranteed a berth because another non-AQ champion, Utah, was ahead at No. 6. The Fiesta Bowl then bypassed Boise to take No. 10 Ohio State as an at-large, while both No. 12 Cincinnati (Big East) and No. 19 Virginia Tech (ACC) had automatic berths.

But this Boise State snub generated enough public outrage that, when the very scenario occurred again the next year, the Broncos were given their just due.

2008 BCS Bowl Matchups

Bowl	Score	Attendance	TV Rating
BCS Champ*	#2 Florida 24, #1 Oklahoma 14	78,468	15.8
Rose Bowl	#3 USC 38, #8 Penn State 24	93,293	11.7
Fiesta Bowl	#3 Texas 24, #10 Ohio State 21	72,047	10.4
Sugar Bowl	#6 Utah 31, #4 Alabama 17	71,872	7.8
Orange Bowl	#19 Va. Tech 20, #12 Cincinnati 7	73,602	5.4

Final analysis: With Florida's win over Oklahoma in the BCS title game, the "SEC-as-top-dog" perception reached new heights as the conference has now won three straight BCS championships. The on-field success helped to fuel the off-field brand building process that permanently granted the SEC a first-among-equals status for the remainder of the BCS era.

The SEC champion reached the BCS title game in each of the eight years between 2006-2013. And in seven of those eight seasons, an SEC team beat out another major conference champion that had the same number of losses for a spot in the championship game—including in 2011, when Alabama advanced to the all-SEC title matchup in spite of not winning its division.

The Tide lost back-to-back games to Florida and Utah to finish the 2008 season, but their dynasty was just on the verge of being unleashed.

The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 7)

The Guru's BlogPoll ballot, with notes below:

BCS Guru Ballot - Week 7

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Alabama Crimson Tide	--
2	Oregon Ducks	--
3	Kansas St. Wildcats	--
4	Florida Gators	2
5	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	2
6	Oregon St. Beavers	5
7	Oklahoma Sooners	6
8	LSU Tigers	6
9	South Carolina Gamecocks	-5
10	USC Trojans	-1
11	Mississippi St. Bulldogs	1
12	Ohio St. Buckeyes	-2
13	Texas A&M Aggies	11
14	Texas Tech Red Raiders	New
15	Georgia Bulldogs	--
16	Florida St. Seminoles	--
17	West Virginia Mountaineers	-12
18	Clemson Tigers	-1
19	Michigan Wolverines	--
20	Stanford Cardinal	-12
21	Boise St. Broncos	-1
22	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	-4
23	TCU Horned Frogs	--
24	Nevada Wolf Pack	New
25	Ohio Bobcats	--
Dropouts: Texas Longhorns, Iowa St. Cyclones

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings

* I think we finally have some clarity in terms of where teams are and what their relative strengths might be after several weeks of conference play. This is an age-old rant: That's why preseason polls are bunk and anyone who slavishly adheres to his preseason poll as a guiding light is either not very smart or very lazy.

*West Virginia and its non-violent defensive philosophy is finally exposed on a day when Geno Smith couldn't chuck the ball around for 5,000 yards and 100 TDs. The Mountaineers may drop like a rock after next week's visit by K-State, which does not take kindly to the other teams moving the ball up and down the field.

* We finally give Texas Tech its proper due, though this may proved to be short-lived after next week's game against TCU. The same goes for the Aggies, who really did dominate a pretty fair Louisiana Tech team until the holding on to dear life at the end.

* Conference-by-conference tally: SEC (7), Big 12 (5), Pac-12 (4), Big Ten (2), ACC (2), MWC (2), MAC (1), WAC (1), Independent (1).

The Envelope, Please ...

(Late update added to provide more robust data, the analysis remains unchanged)

This is probably the most difficult projection the Guru has ever had to do. But here goes ...

No. 2 SHOULD BE Oklahoma.

But will it be? That's entirely up to the voters.

Logically, Oklahoma should be No. 2. But if the BCS is about logic, then it wouldn't even exist. And with all these voters - 175 in all, if they all vote - having foisted upon them a responsibility that they neither desired nor deserved, there really is no telling where they're going to go.

Nevertheless, they're asked to decide on the Big 12 tiebreaker, as the winner of the South Division will be determined by the BCS standings, among Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech. Whoever gets into the Big 12 title game will be the prohibitive favorite to beat Missouri and have the inside track to the BCS title game, against the SEC title game winner between Florida and Alabama.

Well, let's examine those three Big 12 South contenders, side-by-side:

1. Against Big 12 South teams:

Oklahoma Beat ...

at Baylor, 49-17
at Oklahoma State, 61-41
at Texas A&M, 66-28

Cumulative Score: 176-86
Point Differential: +90

Texas Beat ...

Baylor, 45-21
Oklahoma State, 28-24
Texas A&M, 49-9

Cumulative Score: 122-54
Point Differential: +68

Texas Tech Beat ...

Baylor, 35-28
Oklahoma State, 56-20
at Texas A&M, 43-25

Cumulative Score: 134-73
Point Differential: +61

Advantage: Oklahoma.

2. Against all other common opponents:

Only Kansas played all three and this is how it fared:

Lost to Texas Tech, 63-21
Lost to Texas, 35-7
Lost at Oklahoma, 45-31

Advantage: Texas Tech.

3. None-conference opponents:

Oklahoma

Chattanooga (I-AA), 1-11
No. 16 Cincinnati (Big East Champion), 10-2
at Washington, 0-11
No. 14 TCU, 10-2

Cumulative Record: 20-15 (I-A only)
Bowl Teams: 2

Texas

Florida Atlantic, 6-6
at UTEP, 5-7
Arkansas, 5-7
Rice, 9-3

Cumulative Record: 25-23
Bowl Teams: 1

Texas Tech

Eastern Washington (I-AA), 6-5
at Nevada, 7-5
SMU, 1-11
UMass (I-AA), 7-5

Cumulative Record: 8-16 (I-A only)
Bowl Teams: 1

The Sooners did play at winless Washington, but they beat two teams expected to be in the top 15 of the BCS standings. In total, OU beat four teams ranked in the projected BCS top 15. Or put it another way, these 15 teams had a total of 18 losses, and OU is responsible for doling out four of them, twice as many as Texas, Texas Tech and USC, the only other teams with multiple wins vs. the top 15. Advantage: Oklahoma.

4. Head-to-head: Texas wants to talk about beating OU, 45-35, true, but this is not a pure head-to-head situation, it's a three-way tie and a circular argument. Texas Tech has to be included in every discussion because we're trying to break a three-way tie. That Oklahoma routed the Red Raiders is a credit to the Sooners, not an opportunity to dismiss Tech.

And just for logic's sake, the fact that Texas beat OU on a neutral field is a classic non-sequitur. One may deduce that Texas would've beaten OU in Austin, but nothing more - so essentially each team WOULD'VE won at home. The following is how these three teams did against each other, the research courtesy of our friends at Saurian Sagacity:

Oklahoma

Points Scored: 100
Points Against: 66
Net Points: 34
Total Yards: 1060
Total Yards Against: 844
Net Yards: 216

Texas

Points Scored: 78
Points Against: 74
Net Points: 4
Total Yards: 812
Total Yards Against: 1014
Net Yards: -202

Texas Tech

Points Scored: 60
Points Against: 98
Net Points: -38
Total Yards: 985
Total Yards Against: 999
Net Yards: -14

Taken in its totality, it's rather obvious that Oklahoma is the most impressive in the head-to-head results. Advantage: Oklahoma.

If last week's poll results stay relatively stable - given that every team in the top 10 either won or was idle - this is how the computer rankings should break down:

1. Alabama (.970), 2. Texas (.960), 3. Oklahoma (.940), 4. Florida (.880), 5. Utah (.830).

And the BCS standings would look like this:

1. Alabama (.987), 2. Oklahoma (.926), 3. Texas (.921), 4. Florida (.909), 5. USC (.797).

The biggest loser this weekend, without a doubt, is USC. The Trojans not only don't have a shot at the BCS title game, their AP title hopes also evaporated with Oregon State's loss to Oregon. By being forced to play in the Rose Bowl against Penn State, there is little chance for USC to claim the AP title, as opposed to a Fiesta Bowl matchup against either Oklahoma or Texas.

So, assuming the voters actually do their homework and not go nuts or conspiracy-happy, here's the Guru's projection of the penultimate BCS standings:

1. Alabama, 2. Oklahoma, 3. Texas, 4. Florida, 5. USC, 6. Utah, 7. Penn State, 8. Texas Tech, 9. Boise State, 10. Ohio State, 11. TCU, 12. Ball State, 13. Cincinnati, 14. Oklahoma State, 15. Oregon.

Tech Bubble Burst Roils BCS Market

Well, the BCS may have a crisis that mirrors the one in the real world.

It was so easy last week that the Guru just knew there will be ample payback this time. If the caveman could do the projections last week, then this week's would require the combined brain power of Albert Einstein, Werner von Braun and Stephen Hawking, not to mention the psychoanalytic mind of Freud. This might be a bit out of the realm for a chump like me.

But I'll try anyway.

First thing first, we know two things for sure: Penn State is headed to the Rose Bowl, becoming the first team to clinch a BCS berth this season. Utah followed suit by completing a 12-0 season, becoming the first non-BCS team to win multiple BCS bowl berths.

The rest is up in the air.

Oklahoma's 65-21 annihilation of No. 2 Texas Tech sets up a near certainty of the BCS standings being employed to break a three-way tie in the Big 12 South - OU still must win at Oklahoma State next week, though. If the Sooners stumble, then the Red Raiders win the Big 12 South if they can handle Baylor at home.

Take a deep breath and follow this one here: Texas can't win the Big 12 South on anything but the tiebreaker, and Oklahoma's blowout win made that a little more difficult. If the Longhorns don't get to play in the Big 12 title game, they still may play in the BCS title game. And even if they don't play in the BCS title game, they can still win the national championship - by winning the Fiesta Bowl and claiming the AP crown.

The door is left slightly ajar for USC as well - ironically because Oregon State may keep the Trojans out of the Rose Bowl. If they end up playing Texas in the Fiesta Bowl, there is a chance for the Trojans to win the AP title - that chance doesn't exist if they face Penn State in Pasadena. In any event, there is virtually no chance for USC to play in the BCS championship game.

Alabama will remain No. 1 in the BCS standings, without a doubt. After the Tide, I expect Oklahoma to narrowly edge Texas for the No. 2 spot this week. The voters will be very torn about where to place the 'Horns and Sooners, even though Texas did defeat Oklahoma on a neutral field back in October. The 65 points OU hung on Texas Tech would be difficult to ignore as well.

Adding to the intrigue is that Texas coach Mack Brown has a vote in the coaches poll but OU coach Bob Stoops does not. The coaches do not have to reveal their ballots until the final regular-season poll, meaning that whatever Brown puts on his ballot will affect the tiebreaker - and it will stay a secret as well.

Here's the Guru's projections for the Week 13 BCS standings:

1. Alabama, 2. Oklahoma, 3. Texas, 4. Florida, 5. USC, 6. Utah, 7. Texas Tech, 8. Penn State, 9. Boise State, 10. Ohio State, 11. Georgia, 12. Oklahoma State, 13. Missouri, 14. Texas Christian, 15. Cincinnati.

Party Like It's 1942?

No one needs to remind Mike Leach and his Texas Tech Red Raiders just how big Saturday night's game at Oklahoma is. Beyond being the BGISH, there are even more historic implications.

A victory clinches the Big 12 South title for the Red Raiders. But more importantly, it puts No. 2 Texas Tech two wins away - home to 4-7 Baylor and 9-2 Missouri in the Big 12 title game - from a spot in the BCS championship game.

Just how big a deal is that? Let's put it this way: If the Red Raiders win the BCS title this year, it would be the biggest transformation of a program since Ohio State won it all.

In 1942. Paul Brown's second season as the Buckeyes' coach.

Before this season, the Red Raiders have never finished in the top 10 of the AP poll. Ever. The best final AP poll showing for Texas Tech is 11th, in 1938 and 1973. So in terms of college football pedigree, Texas Tech has none.

Every AP national champion in the last 65 years has either won a title before or finished in the top 10 of the AP poll at least once. Programs typically don't go from mediocre or worse to national champion overnight.

Make no mistake, Leach has been building a program since taking over in 2000 from Spike Dykes - who laid a good foundation. Texas Tech has gone to a bowl game every year since Leach took over and is the only school to finish with a winning record every year since the formation of the Big 12 in 1996. But nothing in Tech's recent history even remotely suggested such a meteoric rise.

Texas Tech, typically, would win a big game here and there, but could never string them all together in the same season. It's beaten Texas or Oklahoma before, but never in the same season. So they could make history Saturday night in improbable fashion - sort of like America electing a black man president (hey, wait a minute, that's already done!).

But the Red Raiders are not doing this with smoke and mirrors. They happened to be good. Damn good. There is not a better quarterback-receiver tandem in football than Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree. The once-maligned defense has given up 30 points just twice - and considering Tech has scored at least 35 points in every game, that's good enough. They even run the ball a little bit, averaging 126 yards a game. And their walk-on kicker has not missed anything inside 40 yards.

A loss to No. 5 Oklahoma, though, could prove devastating. Even if the Red Raiders finish in a three-way tie with OU and Texas for the Big 12 South title, it's unlikely that they'd prevail on a tiebreaker based on the BCS standings. Not winning the division also probably will keep them from their first BCS bowl invitation. And for sure, there won't be a Heisman Trophy for either Harrell or Crabtree. The tumbleweeds will swirl back to Lubbock.

Yeah, just how big is this game for Texas Tech?

The Texas Tech-Oklahoma 8 p.m. ET prime time shootout, however, hardly is the only Saturday game with BCS implications. While a few traditional rivalry games might have lost some luster (yes, I'm talking to you, Michigan), a few others have the blood boiling just a few degrees hotter.

No. 14 Brigham Young at No. 7 Utah, 6 p.m. - They call this the Holy War not because these Utahans feel warm and fuzzy about each other. Especially not this year, not with 9 million bucks on the line. A Utes victory clinches a BCS bowl berth for Utah and a big payday for the Mountain West Conference (and yes, BYU gets 1/9 of that pot). A Cougars win gives them a shot at the big money pot - but not without a Boise State loss in its final two games. Ten of the last 11 games in this series were decided by 7 points or less, the lone exception was 2004, when the Utes became the first non-BCS team to play in a BCS bowl.

No. 9 Boise State at Nevada, 4 p.m. - While the Broncos need a Utah loss to have a shot at their second BCS bowl appearance in three years, they had better not overlook Nevada. The 6-4 Wolf Pack held Texas Tech to its lowest scoring output of the season in a 35-19 loss and have scored at least 41 points in six of their last seven games. Last year, it took the Broncos four overtimes to subdue Nevada, 69-67, in the highest scoring game in Division I-A history.

No. 15 Michigan State at No. 8 Penn State, 3:30 p.m. - The Rose Bowl representatives are pretty torn about this. A Penn State win could set up a potential Penn State-Oregon State rematch in Pasadena. A Michigan State victory hands the Big Ten crown to Ohio State, which might mean an Ohio State-USC rematch. The idiot Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio says he'd root for the Buckeyes, even though a Michigan victory gives the Spartans their only chance for a Rose Bowl berth (then again, high IQ is not a pre-requisite for State, so no surprise there).

No. 21 Oregon State at Arizona, 7 p.m. - The Beavers are two wins away from an improbable Rose Bowl appearance, their first since the 1965 game - something that entered virtually no one's mind when they upset then-No. 1 USC on Sept. 25. But they're no cakewalk, though. Besides next week's Civil War against Oregon, the Beavers must win at Arizona, whose only home loss this season was a 17-10 battle against the Trojans. Oregon State, on the other hand, has yet to beat a team with a winning record on the road this season.

No. 20 Pittsburgh at No. 19 Cincinnati, 7:15 p.m. - A victory puts the Bearcats within reach of their first Big East title and BCS bowl appearance - with just a conference home game against lowly Syracuse left. Cincinnati has played in bowl games the last two years, but this time, it could be just a little more auspicious than the PapaJohns.com or International variety. A Pittsburgh win potentially sets up next week's Backyard Brawl as a winner-take-all.

Another Jam-Packed Mailbag

Where's Mailman Steve when you need him?

The Guru won't cry about being overwhelmed by mail - it's a sign of business is good. And with President-elect Barack Obama seemingly having some kind of fetish about the BCS - and the fact that the BCS just signed a four-year deal with ESPN ... my days as the Guru should be anything but numbered.

To reassure you the Guru's commitment, here's an announcement: The Guru answers EVERY SINGLE piece of e-mail that contains a question. Sometimes it'll take me a few days to get back to you, but always before the next weekend. Even if you post your question on the comments board, I'll get back to you - but I'd prefer to answer questions via e-mail.

And every two weeks or so, the best of these e-mails, with the most pertinent questions - along with answers - will be posted here. This is the latest installment:

• For a USC fan what result should we be rooting in the Texas Tech/OK game?

I think you want to root for Texas Tech for a couple of reasons: 1) it eliminates Oklahoma; 2) then all you need is a Tech loss in the Big 12 title game against Missouri - they don't play each other this season - and I just think with Tech being new at this, it might not be able to handle the pressure of being one win away from the BCS title game - ironically like Missouri a year ago.

• Say it ain't so! I am a die-hard Longhorn, and feel sick at the thought of OU jumping us in the BCS. I DON'T GET THIS AT ALL!!!!
  
  How can this be possible when the following is true:
  
  * Texas beat OU by 10 on a neutral field
  * Texas SOS is 5 opposed to OU at 27.
  * OU is 0-1 against Top 10 opponents, Texas is 3-1 (Four weeks in a row!!!)
  * BCS ranking now: TEXAS #3 with .891, OU #5 with .839 (How can OU make up this distance?)
  * Points allowed by OU defense opposed to points allowed by Texas defense (For example, Texas allowed KU 7 points opposed to OU allowing KU to score 31)
  
  I am no math expert, but I just don't understand how OU can jump Texas unless it blows out both TT and OSU. Please shed some light on this.

I know you're disheartened to hear this - and logic seems to favor the Longhorns - but the fact remains that if OU beats Texas Tech, especially if it's a blowout, OU probably will jump Texas - eventually. The Sooners' SOS will improve - as will their computer ratings - just by playing these last two games.

The best-case scenario, as a Texas fan, is for OU to win a close game and then beat OSU in another close game. A Tech win eliminates Texas (and Oklahoma) from the Big 12 title game ... so you definitely don't want that. Texas' best argument, if it gets to that dreaded three-way tie, will be that it won on the neutral field while the other two won at home.

• We all know how important voting is going to be if it indeed does come down to a three way tie. The voters will have a big say over the issue, and my question is surrounding the votes of Mike Leach and Mack Brown. Stoops is not voting this year, and I'm worried about the biases of the other two coaches trying to get their teams into the Big 12 title game. For all we know, Brown and Leach could leave OU out of the top 25 altogether to hurt their overall points in the poll. I'm told that coaches votes are not made public until the last poll, which means they could technically vote however they want.
  
  One, do you see them leaving OU out of their ranking to hurt the Sooners' overall point total?
  
  And two, if this does happen, do you think the votes of these two coaches will have a substantial impact on the Sooners' BCS positioning?

Brown and Leach indeed can leave the Sooners out of the Top 25 entirely on the secret penultimate ballot. If they both do, the impact on the coaches' poll would be about .033 points - enough to alter the outcome in a close race. But the most likely event would be for them to move OU to, say, 10th. It would be sneaky but probably won't make that much of a difference.

However, most of the Harris voters have school/conference affiliations, too. And like the coaches poll, their anonymity is protected until the final poll. This is the very screwy thing about the BCS standings - the total lack of transparency.

That's why two things needs to happen: 1) It should be open ballot every week, like the AP; 2) The standings should not be used for any tiebreaking purposes, there is just too much inherent conflict of interest, and it was never the intent of the standings anyway.

• If Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Texas all finish 11-1 and near the top of the BCS standings. Whoever wins the tiebreaker ends up losing the championship game to Missouri, and whoever wins the SEC Championship game loses a game to their arch rival before that. This could potentially end up with two big 12 teams finishing 1-2 in the BCS, and another Big 12 team (Missouri, presumably) having the conference championship. If I am reading the rules right, this would leave Missouri (the Big 12 Champion) out of the BCS entirely, wouldn’t it?

According to BCS administrator Bill Hancock, this potential conflict has just been amended to allow a THIRD team from the same conference to get a BCS bowl bid. So, if the Big 12 finishes with the Nos. 1 and 2 teams in the BCS standings but Missouri wins the automatic bid, then the conference would indeed claim three spots.

• "The champions of the Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-10 and Southeastern Conferences will have annual automatic qualification for a BCS game after the regular seasons of 2008 through 2013, based on mathematical standards of performance during the 2004-2007 regular seasons. The 2006-2009 regular seasons will be evaluated under the same standards to determine if other conferences will have annual automatic qualification for the games after the 2012 and 2013 regular seasons. The champions of no more than seven conferences will have annual automatic berths."- according to the BCS Website.
  
  So, do you think that you could start tracking the BCS by Conference in a manner consistent with this evaluation process. I think it would be great information and give people some insight into the elite bias as well as the hope that the current system could actually benefit other conferences in the future.

Good idea ... it'll definitely be on my plate as a postseason project. They refused to reveal the formula, but I'm sure I can generate something comparable.

• What happens if Utah and Boise both end up in the top 12 at the end of the year? Are they both guaranteed spots? If not, what is the BCS rule that governs this?

Only the highest-ranked non-BCS team, if it's in the top 14, is guaranteed a BCS berth. If there's another team, it would merely be "eligible" but not guaranteed (and not likely) to be selected. Right now, it looks like Boise needs a Utah loss to get that bid.

• Any chance that if BYU beats Utah, either Utah or TCU end up going to a BCS Bowl instead of BYU (assuming Boise State and Ball State losses)?

First, you don't need to worry about Ball State. BYU is already ahead in the BCS standings. Second, you do need to worry about Boise State, it's not likely that a one-loss BYU would jump an undefeated Boise. Finally, Utah could survive a loss to BYU and stay ahead in the BCS standings (not so for two-loss TCU). If the voters only drop the Utes one or two spots in the polls, they can conceivably make up the difference with their superior computer rankings.

• I can understand that with 4 non-BCS teams in the top 15 it a virtual guarantee that one of them will get a BCS invite, but what would have to happen for two of them to get invites?

Hell freezing over? Actually, not quite. You need three events, and two are quite probable: 1) Oregon State losing one of its remaining games, ensuring the Pac-10 gets only one BCS invite (USC); 2) Penn State beating Michigan State at home, eliminating a second Big Ten team in the event of ...; 3) Hell freezing over, 2008 edition - Michigan winning at Ohio State. The 3-8 Wolverines are a 21-point underdog. But the UM win, coupled with an MSU loss, eliminates the Big Ten from gaining a second entry, thus ensuring a second non-BCS team getting an at-large bid.

• This notion that 'SC fans want another Rose Bowl is false. We want Oregon St to win out be co-Pac-10 champs and we want to go to the Fiesta and play a big 12 team or sugar and play an SEC team. We have nothing to gain by going to Pasadena and running over another big 10 team ala Illinois and Michigan the last 2 times. This is not only my feeling but the sentiments of the entire marching band and majority of a sports commentary course with knowledgeable USC and college football fans. They aren't making us nervous they're making us excited and anxious to see if we can avoid the Rose even if we don't play for the BCS title.

I get this, it's very sensible, but there is one trap with this line of thinking. USC might need to win the Pac-10 outright in the event of a stumble by the Big 12 South champ in the conference title game. Why? Because then if the Trojans are to get a favorable outcome from the voters for a spot in the BCS title game, they need to have the argument that they "won" the conference whereas Texas, Texas Tech or Oklahoma didn't. If USC and Oregon State are Pac-10 co-champions, the perception would be that USC didn't win the conference because the Beavers got the automatic Rose Bowl bid.

• I absolutely love your Orange Bowl prediction.....ACC Champ vs. Big East Champ......
  
  As if to say, "who really cares about this game???"
  
  That's classic...we're not even gonna waste time guessing who these teams will be...they're just going to play each other in this meaningless BCS bowl game.

Yep. You read my mind.

The Calm Before Guns Ablaze

Wyatt Earp is sitting in a saloon (somewhere in Lubbock), all by himself. He's nursing a drink, reminiscing all that's happened in this tumultuous season. When he's done, he'll slowly get up and head over to the O.K. Corral (in Norman, OK, of course) to "kill 'em all."

(Here's a visual, if reading hurts your eyes)



Next week, the Biggest Game of the Season and the BGISH for Texas Tech will be settled on Owen Field, with the winner moving on and the loser carried off to the BCS morgue. But this Saturday, both Texas Tech and Oklahoma will be quietly polishing their guns at their respective watering holes.

Elsewhere, not much is expected to happen, either. The other five teams atop the BCS standings are all favored by at least two touchdowns in their respective games. There should not be a single upset among the championship hopefuls on Saturday and we might just have sort of a collective bye week.

The most intriguing game with BCS ramifications will take place in Corvallis - between two teams just outside of the BCS top 25. By now, Oregon State is making USC fans a bit nervous. The Beavers control their own destiny in terms of winning the Pac-10's automatic bid to the Rose Bowl. While the Trojans want to shoot for the big prize of the BCS championship game, they want to have Pasadena as a consolation prize if that doesn't work out.

So far, Oregon State hasn't cooperated, winning every Pac-10 game since dropping its opener to Stanford. But the Beavers will be facing the conference's next-best teams in their closing weeks - against California, at Arizona, and host Oregon in the Civil War. One loss probably will hand the Trojans the conference title for the seventh straight season.

The Golden Bears have a slim, slim shot at a BCS bowl berth, but mostly they're playing for a trip to San Diego for the Holiday Bowl. There's a pretty big difference between San Diego and El Paso, and we are not just talking about the cash money payout.

Besides the Cal-Oregon State 3:30 p.m. ET matchup, there is just one other game whose outcome might impact the BCS bowl picture - Brigham Young-Air Force, also at 3:30 p.m. If the Cougars win, a non-BCS conference team would be guaranteed a BCS bowl berth.

Three non-BCS teams currently are ranked in the top 14 of the BCS standings, with the top team locked in for an automatic bid - No. 7 Utah, No. 9 Boise State and No. 14 Ball State. The Utes, at 10-0, control their own destiny. If they close out the regular season with two more wins, then they're headed to their second BCS bowl appearance in five seasons.

A BYU victory over Air Force cinches the scenario that even if both Boise State and Ball State are upset in the closing weeks, and the Cougars defeat Utah in the Holy War on Nov. 22, one of those teams will stay in the top 14, which comes with the automatic BCS bowl berth. If anything, the Cougars can keep their own slim BCS hopes alive by beating the Falcons.

Finally, just for kicks, the Guru will throw you a few one liners on the expected walkovers Saturday:

Mississippi State at No. 1 Alabama, 7:45 p.m. - Yes, yes, Sylvester Croom has beaten his alma mater the last two years. That streak's over.

No. 3 Texas at Kansas, 12:30 p.m. - This seems to be the chic upset pick of the week. Why? Because it's gonna be cold in Lawrence? Hell will freeze over before KU beats Texas.

No. 25 South Carolina at No. 4 Florida, 3:30 p.m. - Yes, yes, Steve Spurrier was a Gator and will forever be a Gator. Florida fans still love him to death. Just not this week.

No. 6 USC at Stanford, 7 p.m. - Last year the Cardinal shocked the Trojans at the Coliseum with a 24-23 win. If Stanford scores 24 points this time - that'll be one more than USC has given up in the last six GAMES.

No. 7 Utah at San Diego State, 8 p.m. - Just how bad are the 1-9 Aztecs? They've surrendered an average of 43.3 points per game during their six-game losing streak. Division I-AA, anyone?

Reviewing Resumes

So you want to play in the BCS Championship Game? Very well. Come in and have a seat. We have a few worthy candidates and you'll get your turn to state your case.

In a contentious BCS atmosphere, every end of season acts as a beauty contest. A battle not fought on the field but in the forum of public opinion. It's not a meritocracy or even a democracy. It's Politburo-style, like in the old Soviet Union: 175 unelected representatives (61 coaches and 114 Harris voters) will decide the fate of our college football nation.

You still think the Guru loves the BCS? Sure, it's good for business. But like a vegetarian meat packer - just because you sell it doesn't mean you have to eat it.

It's a lousy job, but somebody has to do it. We have to try to decipher which are the two best teams that should be pitted in the mythical national championship game. Right now, we have seven contestants. And they're ranked 1 through 7 in the current BCS standings. But as usual, there's more to it than meets the eye.

Is Alabama really the best team? Does Utah have a chance? Which conference is tougher, the SEC or Big 12? And what about USC?

The best thing to do, then, is to evaluate each team's resume and put them next to each other. So the Guru did:

Team	SOS	RS*	Loss To	Best Win	vs Top 14
Alabama	66	6-11	None	#10 Georgia (8-2)	1-0 (1)
Texas Tech	29	10-8	None	#3 Texas (9-1)	2-0 (1)
Texas	5	9-10	Texas Tech #2 (10-0)	#5 Oklahoma (9-1)	3-1
Florida	14	11-5	Ole Miss UR (5-4)	#10 Georgia	1-0 (1)
Oklahoma	27	15-2	Texas #3 (9-1)	#18 TCU (9-2)	0-1 (2)
USC	39	13-15	Oregon State #28 (6-3)	#11 Ohio State (8-2)	1-0
Utah	58	9-9	None	#18 TCU	0-0

Key: SOS = Strength of schedule average of NCAA, Sagarin and Massey

RS* = Records of opponents remaining on schedule, excluding I-AA teams

As you can see, aside from being undefeated, Alabama may have the weakest resume of the group, yet it is ranked No. 1. And every other team has some strong arguments and some holes in its presentation as well. Let's review them one by one:

No. 1 Alabama - The Tide played the softest schedule of the group. One of its two best wins - over then-No. 9 Clemson - has been thoroughly discredited as the Tigers are 4-5 and just fired their coach. Basically, Alabama is living off its one great half against Georgia. If the Tide go on and finish the season 13-0, with a win over Florida in the SEC championship game, fine, send them to the BCS title game. But one loss anywhere should immediately eliminate 'Bama from this discussion.

No. 2 Texas Tech - The Red Raiders are definitely the hottest team and with a win at Oklahoma in two weeks, there should be no argument about their legitimacy. Unlike Alabama, another loss - to Oklahoma, specifically - shouldn't be automatically disqualifying, but the timing would probably do the trick.

No. 3 Texas - The Longhorns were one second away from a perfect record and probably an unanimous No. 1 ranking. Texas has played by far the toughest schedule of anyone and has beaten three teams in the top 14 - all in consecutive weeks. And its only loss is to the second-ranked team, on the road, in the last second. By all means, should either of the two unbeaten BCS teams slip up, Texas should get right back into the title picture. But the reality is that it might not even get into the Big 12 championship game.

No. 4 Florida - The Gators probably have the two most impressive wins - over Georgia and LSU by a combined score of 100-31 - but they also have the worst loss of the teams in the group. Florida's only loss was at home to an unranked Ole Miss team that's not yet bowl eligible. But the Gator have a chance to burnish their resume down the stretch with games against two teams currently ranked in the top 25, and then top-ranked Alabama in the SEC championship game. If they run the table, there should be no denying the Gators.

No. 5 Oklahoma - The Sooners won two games against good non-conference opponents (TCU and Cincinnati) but have yet to beat a quality Big 12 team. But OU has a chance to state its case because its two remaining opponents have a combined overall record of 18-2 (15-2 against I-A teams). And winning those games just might be enough to propel Oklahoma into the Big 12 championship game and open a path to the BCS title game.

No. 6 USC - The Trojans' one bad half against Oregon State not only is keeping them at arm's length of the BCS title game, but might also prevent them from earning a Rose Bowl berth. In retrospect, the loss to the Beavers was not as bad as originally thought - on the road against an OSU team that's now 6-3 and controls its own destiny for the Pac-10 title. And USC has no chance to impress the voters with games against Stanford, Notre Dame and UCLA remaining. Despite the fact that USC's defense, which has surrendered an ungodly 6.7 points per game, may finish as the best unit of all time, the Pac-10's weakness this season is not helping the Trojans' cause.

No. 7 Utah - Can the Utes get into the BCS title game? Yes. The possibility exists. If every team ahead of them loses at least one more game - and Alabama loses twice - then Utah conceivably may end up in the championship game. Short of that, Utah will have to be content with a BCS bowl berth, which will be a lock if it beats San Diego State and BYU to finish the season.

As a bonus, here's the Guru's latest BCS bowl projections -

• BCS Championship - Florida vs. Texas Tech

• Rose Bowl - USC vs. Penn State

• Fiesta Bowl - Texas vs. Ohio State

• Sugar Bowl - Alabama vs. Utah

• Orange Bowl - ACC champion vs. Big East champion