The NFL draft is all about procuring the best talent from college football. And what happens at the draft tells so much about not just the past college football season, but the upcoming one as well.
Granted, the best college football players don't always turn out to be great pros and some Canton enshrinees had very pedestrian college careers. But taken with totality through history, the NFL draft provides a very good indication on the relative strength of college football conferences and programs. You don't win championships -- at any level -- without talent.
So it should come as no surprise that for the ninth year in a row, the SEC led all conferences in total draft picks. This not so coincidentally mirrored the SEC's dominance in college football. In those nine years, the SEC won seven consecutive BCS titles (from 2006-2012) before finally vacating the perch the past two seasons.
But the SEC's two-year national title drought may not be coming to an end this next season, and that's among several interesting revelations from the 2015 NFL draft:
1. The SEC's talent advantage is shrinking
Despite leading all conferences with 54 players taken in the draft, the SEC got there not so much with top-end talent but with many second-day role players who may or may not make it on the Opening Day roster. The Pac-12 and the ACC had more first-round picks (nine each) than the SEC. And the Pac-12 led all conferences with 25 picks in the first three rounds, three more than the SEC. (And keep in mind that the Pac-12 has two fewer programs than the SEC's 14.)
Using the methodology Draftpoints, with draftees weighted based on where they were selected, only four SEC schools were ranked in the top 15, topped by Florida at No. 4. That the Gators grossly underachieved despite considerable talent under Will Muschamp is no secret -- and hence why he was canned after four years. But overall the SEC just isn't consistently recruiting and developing the best players as it did in the late 2000s and early 2010s.
This trend is expected to continue and therefore it would not at all be a surprise if the SEC fails to win the national title for a third straight year and miss out on the championship game for a second consecutive season.
2. Florida State has a rough road ahead
First, let's just acknowledge that the Seminoles' two-year run of 27-1, with one national title and another national semifinal appearance, was no fluke. FSU led all schools with 11 draftees, including the top pick quarterback Jameis Winston, and dwarfed everyone in the aforementioned Draftpoints system.
And not only just that the Seminoles were as good as advertised, they actually dominated a conference that was considerably underrated by college football pundits. The ACC finished second overall to the SEC with 47 total draftees and tied with the Pac-12 with nine first-rounders. The top three schools according to Draftpoints all came from the ACC - FSU, Miami and Louisville -- with Clemson checking in at No. 12.
The bad news for the Seminoles here, of course, is that most of Jimbo Fisher's great hauls in 2011 and '12 is gone and there's a daunting rebuilding project ahead. Never mind replacing Winston at quarterback, Fisher will have to find replacements for nearly half of his starting lineup in 2015.
3. TCU and Baylor will dominate a weak Big 12
Neither TCU nor Baylor made the inaugural College Football Playoff field despite finishing as co-champions of the Big 12. While not having a conference title game was a factor, that they dominated a soft conference didn't help, either.
Both TCU and Baylor will have a vast majority of their starters returning, with only two players taken in the draft from each school (though one was Baylor QB Bryce Petty). But while both teams relied heavily on underclassmen last year, their Big 12 opponents clearly did not possess an abundance of talent. Only two Big 12 players were taken in the first round, seven in the first three rounds and 25 overall -- all dead last among Power 5 conferences.
The perception that the Big 12 is a weak conference surely won't be bolstered by the draft and that will influence the selection committee's decision at the season's end. Either TCU or Baylor might need to run the table to avoid another playoff snub.
4. Pac-12 is the most balanced and competitive conference
Oregon was favored to end the conference's decade-long national title drought, only to be denied by Ohio State in the national title game. But the Ducks had to battle through an absolute gauntlet as the Pac-12 has proved to be the toughest conference from top to bottom.
In the 2015 Draft, the Pac-12 led with picks in the first round and also the first three rounds (despite having two fewer teams than the SEC, ACC and Big Ten). In terms of Draftpoints, the Pac-12 placed six schools in the top 15, more than any other conference. And Arizona isn't even among them as the Wildcats didn't have a single player drafted since the bulk of their starters will return from a team that won the Pac-12 South last year and played in the Fiesta Bowl.
The Pac-12 is surging in this armed race with its old standard-bearer returning to the national championship race. USC had two first-round picks in the draft, pushing its all-time total to 79 and overall draftees to 489 -- both No. 1 in the history of NFL draft. But with the Trojans unchained from NCAA sanctions and having a full complement of scholarships for the first time in four years, they already reloaded with the nation's top-ranked recruiting class this spring.
5. Ohio State has a good chance to repeat as champions
The Big Ten had a pedestrian draft, with three first-round picks, 15 in the first three rounds and 35 overall, all placing fourth among Power 5 conferences, only ahead of the Big 12. The school that performed best in the draft is Ohio State, with five players selected, the highest being WR Devin Smith going in the second round.
This is all great news for the defending national champions, who will be shortlisted for the playoff once again.
The Buckeyes already return a team with at least 15 starters, including Heisman candidate RB Ezekiel Elliott and a trio of quarterbacks that all could be starting for another FBS program. They do not face a stiff competition in the Big Ten especially with their archrival Michigan wallowing in mediocrity. The Wolverines, though still the winningest program in college football history, just went a school-record five years without a first-round pick and has had only one first rounder since Jake Long went No. 1 overall in 2008.
Help is on the way for Michigan, though, via the NFL. Jim Harbaugh will turn the fortunes of his alma mater around and reboot the rivalry. It's just a matter of when -- but maybe not in 2015.
Showing posts with label Big 12. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Big 12. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 6, 2015
Monday, January 12, 2015
What Is the Real Magic Number? Try 6
The first College Football Playoff is rightly declared a success. After Ohio State's emphatic 42-20 victory over Oregon, we can finally proclaim a national champion in college football that's more substantial than mythical.
Well, almost. TCU is still out there and a legitimate argument can be made that it was unfairly excluded. The Horned Frogs likely won't finish worse than third in the final AP Poll, maybe even getting a few votes for second.
That's why well before all the golden confetti streamed down from the rafters at Jerry Jones' football palace Monday night, there was already plenty of talk about expanding the playoff. We're only in the first year of a 12-year pact for a four-team playoff, but there's already clamoring for an eight-team playoff, or even a 16-team playoff.
It's not gonna happen. Not anytime soon. And probably not going to be eight teams and certainly never 16 teams.
College football's postseason attendance scheme is like moving small cities from place to place. Each major bowl game counts on travel and displacements of up to 50,000 people. And as this year's playoff has already proved, to make those same people take two trips are difficult and hence the empty seats at the playoff bowl games and low prices on the secondary ticket markets.
But that's not to say we'll never expand beyond four teams. In fact, there's a plausible scenario for expansion, even though it probably won't happen before the 2020 season, about halfway through the current contract.
A six-team playoff is imminently achievable and reasonable.
The biggest gripe against the current four-team playoff is that there are five power conferences. In this year's case, Big 12's co-champions TCU and Baylor were both left out. Another complaint is that within this scheme no team outside of the major conferences (and Notre Dame) would ever get a chance to play for the national title.
With six teams, all five major conference champions would be guaranteed a spot with room for one more deserving team, which could come out of the Group of Five conferences or be a non-champion of the Power Five. This would greatly reduce the burden on the selection committee as its main job becomes picking one team to add to the playoff field.
This arrangement would not dilute the meaning of the regular season but in fact enhance it. Teams would be encouraged to play tough non-conference opponents knowing that it won't hurt their chances of making the playoff as long as they win their conference. And in all probability the one at-large team in the playoff field would be one that's had a challenging schedule instead of one that's filled it with cream puffs.
As for the attendance issue, this could be easily remedied by playing the first two playoff games on campus sites, with the top two seeds earning a bye. These "quarterfinals" matching teams seeded third through sixth would be played on the Saturday after conference title games (now reserved for Army-Navy), with the winners advancing to the New Years' Six semifinal games and losers still earning a place in other NY6 bowl games.
Just as the BCS altered its format halfway through its 16-year existence by going to the double-host model that created the non-bowl championship game, the CFP can easily adopt the new six-team format without making many fundamental changes to its current scheme. Bowl pairings can still be announced on the first Sunday of December, with the New Years' Six lineup to be finalized a week later.
This idea should be embraced by the everyone in the industry. ESPN, after being astonished by the high ratings of this season's semifinal games, would love to add two more games. Bowl-game host committees can breathe easy as this doesn't further disrupt their system. University administrators probably won't have an issue with the opportunity to host an extra home game that's a guaranteed sellout.
So will the expansion happen? Yes, but it will take time. Unlike the NFL or any other professional sports leagues, college football is run by a large collection of people that includes school presidents, athletic directors, conference commissioners and TV executives. New ideas are not going on the agenda tomorrow or in the immediate future.
The next two championship game sites have been selected so for certain nothing will change before the 2017 season. Also the power brokers will want to see how things shake out for awhile before signing off on any deviation from the original plan.
But change is coming, you just need to wait a few years. And remember, six should be the magic number.
Well, almost. TCU is still out there and a legitimate argument can be made that it was unfairly excluded. The Horned Frogs likely won't finish worse than third in the final AP Poll, maybe even getting a few votes for second.
That's why well before all the golden confetti streamed down from the rafters at Jerry Jones' football palace Monday night, there was already plenty of talk about expanding the playoff. We're only in the first year of a 12-year pact for a four-team playoff, but there's already clamoring for an eight-team playoff, or even a 16-team playoff.
It's not gonna happen. Not anytime soon. And probably not going to be eight teams and certainly never 16 teams.
College football's postseason attendance scheme is like moving small cities from place to place. Each major bowl game counts on travel and displacements of up to 50,000 people. And as this year's playoff has already proved, to make those same people take two trips are difficult and hence the empty seats at the playoff bowl games and low prices on the secondary ticket markets.
But that's not to say we'll never expand beyond four teams. In fact, there's a plausible scenario for expansion, even though it probably won't happen before the 2020 season, about halfway through the current contract.
A six-team playoff is imminently achievable and reasonable.
The biggest gripe against the current four-team playoff is that there are five power conferences. In this year's case, Big 12's co-champions TCU and Baylor were both left out. Another complaint is that within this scheme no team outside of the major conferences (and Notre Dame) would ever get a chance to play for the national title.
With six teams, all five major conference champions would be guaranteed a spot with room for one more deserving team, which could come out of the Group of Five conferences or be a non-champion of the Power Five. This would greatly reduce the burden on the selection committee as its main job becomes picking one team to add to the playoff field.
This arrangement would not dilute the meaning of the regular season but in fact enhance it. Teams would be encouraged to play tough non-conference opponents knowing that it won't hurt their chances of making the playoff as long as they win their conference. And in all probability the one at-large team in the playoff field would be one that's had a challenging schedule instead of one that's filled it with cream puffs.
As for the attendance issue, this could be easily remedied by playing the first two playoff games on campus sites, with the top two seeds earning a bye. These "quarterfinals" matching teams seeded third through sixth would be played on the Saturday after conference title games (now reserved for Army-Navy), with the winners advancing to the New Years' Six semifinal games and losers still earning a place in other NY6 bowl games.
Just as the BCS altered its format halfway through its 16-year existence by going to the double-host model that created the non-bowl championship game, the CFP can easily adopt the new six-team format without making many fundamental changes to its current scheme. Bowl pairings can still be announced on the first Sunday of December, with the New Years' Six lineup to be finalized a week later.
This idea should be embraced by the everyone in the industry. ESPN, after being astonished by the high ratings of this season's semifinal games, would love to add two more games. Bowl-game host committees can breathe easy as this doesn't further disrupt their system. University administrators probably won't have an issue with the opportunity to host an extra home game that's a guaranteed sellout.
So will the expansion happen? Yes, but it will take time. Unlike the NFL or any other professional sports leagues, college football is run by a large collection of people that includes school presidents, athletic directors, conference commissioners and TV executives. New ideas are not going on the agenda tomorrow or in the immediate future.
The next two championship game sites have been selected so for certain nothing will change before the 2017 season. Also the power brokers will want to see how things shake out for awhile before signing off on any deviation from the original plan.
But change is coming, you just need to wait a few years. And remember, six should be the magic number.
Friday, December 19, 2014
Breaking Down Russell Athletic Bowl
By Jesse Lawrence
As we inch closer to the December, 29th Russell Athletic Bowl between the Oklahoma Sooners and the Clemson Tigers, the ticket prices are bound to change. For this game, we are starting to see a drastic decrease in the prices of tickets to the game in the home of Disney World.
As we inch closer to the December, 29th Russell Athletic Bowl between the Oklahoma Sooners and the Clemson Tigers, the ticket prices are bound to change. For this game, we are starting to see a drastic decrease in the prices of tickets to the game in the home of Disney World.
According to Totally Tickets, the average price of a ticket to the game in Orlando Florida costs $91.23, but can cost as little as $28. This price represents a 14% decrease in price over the past 7 days for Oklahoma football tickets. This decrease in price could be due to the loss of Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson.
Watson was the explosive spark that drove the Clemson offense for much of the season. When Watson was on the field, he threw 14 touchdowns and only two interceptions for the tigers. He was the catalyst to the nations 60th best scoring offense. While that rank doesn’t seem very good, they may have been more productive if Watson had played the whole season. Cole Stoudt started the year as the starting quarterback, but threw 10 interceptions on only six touchdowns. Stoudt will start on December 29th.
The Oklahoma Sooners have performed poorly late in the season as well, especially on defense. This correlates to the price of Sooners Tickets on the secondary market. The Sooners rank 48th in the nation in points allowed, and could not contain the high-powered offenses of TCU, Baylor, West Virginia, and Oklahoma State. Despite the all-American talents of Erik Stryker and Zach Sanchez, they had huge holes in the defense and were exposed by better teams all season.
Luckily for the Sooners, they don’t have to deal with Watson. Stoudt may lead the team in passing yards, but has been extremely inefficient. If quarterback Trevor Knight can contain his play and not make mistakes, they should be okay. Knight hasn’t played very well at times this season, but the sooners score the 11th most points in the country (38.9). Running back Samaje Perine could have trouble running into a defense that features Vic Beasley, one of the nation’s best defensive linemen. The Sooners may have to depend on the play of Knight and receiver Sterling Shepard. I wouldn’t expect Perine to be a non-factor, as he has been one of the best running backs in the Big 12 all year long.
Both of these proud programs want to end this season on a positive note, This should be an incredibly hard-fought games by coaches and players who want to revive the image of their seasons. Both of these programs are extraordinarily proud, and this game should fire up both of these teams, especially the seniors.
Jesse Lawrence is the CEO of TiqIQ.com, a leading online ticket search engine.
Jesse Lawrence is the CEO of TiqIQ.com, a leading online ticket search engine.
Wednesday, December 10, 2014
Big 12: Think (Hard) Before You Act
The worst thing the Big 12 can do is going for the quick fix. When no such "fix" is needed.
Sure, the conference rightfully feels it got screwed by the selection committee after being the only Power 5 conference left out of the inaugural College Football Playoff. But before the Big 12 runs out to hastily extend an invitation to Cincinnati or BYU or whomever to join the conference - or arrange a title game between its top two teams - it needs to ...
Stop. Just stop.
The Big 12 got left out not because it didn't stage a conference title game or because its conference champion didn't play a 13th game. It got left out because the selection committee proved to be no more discerning than the average fan who watches too much ESPN.
The fact is that if you replaced TCU with TEXAS, the Big 12 doesn't lose that final playoff spot to Ohio State and the Big Ten. Or if you replaced OHIO STATE with ILLINOIS, then the Horned Frogs would be on their way to New Orleans to face Alabama in a national semifinal game.
The Big 12 lost out because the schools it had in contention were small, private, Christian colleges, not college football behemoths like the four teams that made it. And in no small part because that's the way ESPN wanted it.
Did you see Kirk Herbstreit in the last three weeks proselytizing on behalf of his alma mat ... uh, Ohio State? Even as the Buckeyes labored to beat Big Ten also-rans Indiana and Michigan, Herbstreit claimed that they were "gaining momentum" and without fail, put Ohio State in his own Final Four week after week.
With the majority of college football games televised by ESPN's networks (not to mention all of the playoff as well as all but one of the 39 bowl games), it's natural for the 12 members of the committee - at least some of them - to fall under the spell of the "Worldwide Leader." When Ohio State blasted Wisconsin, 59-0, with its preseason third-string QB in the Big Ten title game, the committee fell hook, line and sinker.
The committee got reeled in the same way the AP and coaches poll voters did. Despite its struggles against Indiana and Michigan, Ohio State steadily picked up votes during the final weeks of the regulars season, finally vaulting past both Big 12 teams at the end.
And because of that, the simulated BCS standings showed that Ohio State would've been the No. 4 team, seemingly justifying the committee's decision. But the truth is that since the polls accounted for two-thirds of the standings, the voters' inability to keep clear heads from the ESPN-driven media narrative played a key role.
As it turned out, the committee members were no better - or smarter - than these voters.
That's why the Big 12 should not beat itself up over its exclusion from this year's playoff. It's college football, where money always speaks the loudest. ESPN wanted brand names in its tournament and that's what it got. If ESPN had its way, the four-team field will always include Alabama, Ohio State, Texas and USC every year (and Notre Dame if it finally ditches its NBC contract).
TCU was the best team in the Big 12 this year, a fact that's acknowledged by commissioner Bob Bowlsby and every conference coach besides Baylor's Art Briles. The Horned Frogs were better than Ohio State and should've been in the playoff. But since TCU and Baylor shared the conference championship - with Baylor having won head-to-head - that made it convenient for the committee to discard them both.
Would it be any different had Baylor lost another game and therefore made TCU the outright Big 12 winner? Perhaps, but probably not. As one of college football's nouveau riches, the Horned Frogs were basically told to wait for their turn. And this isn't their time yet.
A conference championship game or a 13th game wouldn't have changed that. What would help the Big 12 more is to tell Texas and Oklahoma to get back up to speed, pronto.
Sure, the conference rightfully feels it got screwed by the selection committee after being the only Power 5 conference left out of the inaugural College Football Playoff. But before the Big 12 runs out to hastily extend an invitation to Cincinnati or BYU or whomever to join the conference - or arrange a title game between its top two teams - it needs to ...
Stop. Just stop.
The Big 12 got left out not because it didn't stage a conference title game or because its conference champion didn't play a 13th game. It got left out because the selection committee proved to be no more discerning than the average fan who watches too much ESPN.
The fact is that if you replaced TCU with TEXAS, the Big 12 doesn't lose that final playoff spot to Ohio State and the Big Ten. Or if you replaced OHIO STATE with ILLINOIS, then the Horned Frogs would be on their way to New Orleans to face Alabama in a national semifinal game.
The Big 12 lost out because the schools it had in contention were small, private, Christian colleges, not college football behemoths like the four teams that made it. And in no small part because that's the way ESPN wanted it.
Did you see Kirk Herbstreit in the last three weeks proselytizing on behalf of his alma mat ... uh, Ohio State? Even as the Buckeyes labored to beat Big Ten also-rans Indiana and Michigan, Herbstreit claimed that they were "gaining momentum" and without fail, put Ohio State in his own Final Four week after week.
With the majority of college football games televised by ESPN's networks (not to mention all of the playoff as well as all but one of the 39 bowl games), it's natural for the 12 members of the committee - at least some of them - to fall under the spell of the "Worldwide Leader." When Ohio State blasted Wisconsin, 59-0, with its preseason third-string QB in the Big Ten title game, the committee fell hook, line and sinker.
The committee got reeled in the same way the AP and coaches poll voters did. Despite its struggles against Indiana and Michigan, Ohio State steadily picked up votes during the final weeks of the regulars season, finally vaulting past both Big 12 teams at the end.
And because of that, the simulated BCS standings showed that Ohio State would've been the No. 4 team, seemingly justifying the committee's decision. But the truth is that since the polls accounted for two-thirds of the standings, the voters' inability to keep clear heads from the ESPN-driven media narrative played a key role.
As it turned out, the committee members were no better - or smarter - than these voters.
That's why the Big 12 should not beat itself up over its exclusion from this year's playoff. It's college football, where money always speaks the loudest. ESPN wanted brand names in its tournament and that's what it got. If ESPN had its way, the four-team field will always include Alabama, Ohio State, Texas and USC every year (and Notre Dame if it finally ditches its NBC contract).
TCU was the best team in the Big 12 this year, a fact that's acknowledged by commissioner Bob Bowlsby and every conference coach besides Baylor's Art Briles. The Horned Frogs were better than Ohio State and should've been in the playoff. But since TCU and Baylor shared the conference championship - with Baylor having won head-to-head - that made it convenient for the committee to discard them both.
Would it be any different had Baylor lost another game and therefore made TCU the outright Big 12 winner? Perhaps, but probably not. As one of college football's nouveau riches, the Horned Frogs were basically told to wait for their turn. And this isn't their time yet.
A conference championship game or a 13th game wouldn't have changed that. What would help the Big 12 more is to tell Texas and Oklahoma to get back up to speed, pronto.
Sunday, November 30, 2014
A Big 12 Fight to the Finish
TCU, Baylor or Ohio State?
That will be the selection committee's toughest task, picking one of those three teams to place in the College Football Playoff field. Each of the top six teams in the committee's next rankings will be playing this weekend in games they are favored.
The top three teams—Alabama, Oregon and Florida State—will all be playing in their respective conference title games and they're in with a victory. If any of them should lose, it opens the door for another one of the aforementioned "next three."
Ohio State has a major issue. On one hand, the Buckeyes hope the committee won't hold the season-ending injury to Heisman candidate QB J.T. Barrett against them. On the other, they must defeat Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game with Barrett's backup Cardale Jones.
PROJECTED RANKINGS
So in all likelihood, the final spot will be contested by the two Big 12 teams, with each having a chance to win a share of the conference title. As there is no Big 12 Championship Game, both TCU and Baylor can claim at least to be a co-champion with a win next week.
This is where things get tricky. Baylor defeated TCU 61-58 at home earlier this season, rallying from 21 points down with 11 minutes remaining to hand the Horned Frogs their only loss of the season. But the problem for the Bears is that the committee thinks there's enough of a resume gap between the two teams for the head-to-head result not to matter.
TCU and Baylor each played an FCS team and the Horned Frogs routed Big Ten title contender Minnesota while the Bears blew out MAC also-ran Buffalo. Besides getting a lift from the Gophers' surprising season, TCU also owns a significant advantage over Baylor in the games so far against nine common opponents.
As TCU is unlikely to lose to 2-9 Iowa State, Baylor must defeat Kansas State impressively to have any shot of catching the Horned Frogs in the eyes of the committee. Making the task more difficult is that the Wildcats are playing for much more than spoiler, as they also will claim at least a share of the Big 12 title with a victory.
Other Fun Facts
* Boise State is a victory over 6-6 Fresno State in the Mountain West Championship Game away from the inaugural CFP group-of-five automatic bid. It will be the Broncos' third major bowl appearance in the last nine seasons and likely it'll be a third Fiesta Bowl berth. Northern Illinois and Memphis figure to be next in line if Boise State somehow stumbles.
* The rest of the 11 bowl slots, of course, will all go to the power five conferences. The SEC will get three berths while the other conferences will receive two each. Mississippi State probably has a bid wrapped up regardless of how the conference championship games go.
* There are a total of 80 bowl eligible teams, with Oklahoma State and Temple can still earn eligibility. Georgia Southern, Appalachian State and Old Dominion will not go bowling as they're all in the second year of FBS transition and thus ineligible. Looks like Middle Tennessee, South Alabama, UAB and Ohio—all 6-6— will be left out despite being eligible.
That will be the selection committee's toughest task, picking one of those three teams to place in the College Football Playoff field. Each of the top six teams in the committee's next rankings will be playing this weekend in games they are favored.
The top three teams—Alabama, Oregon and Florida State—will all be playing in their respective conference title games and they're in with a victory. If any of them should lose, it opens the door for another one of the aforementioned "next three."
Ohio State has a major issue. On one hand, the Buckeyes hope the committee won't hold the season-ending injury to Heisman candidate QB J.T. Barrett against them. On the other, they must defeat Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game with Barrett's backup Cardale Jones.
PROJECTED RANKINGS
So in all likelihood, the final spot will be contested by the two Big 12 teams, with each having a chance to win a share of the conference title. As there is no Big 12 Championship Game, both TCU and Baylor can claim at least to be a co-champion with a win next week.
This is where things get tricky. Baylor defeated TCU 61-58 at home earlier this season, rallying from 21 points down with 11 minutes remaining to hand the Horned Frogs their only loss of the season. But the problem for the Bears is that the committee thinks there's enough of a resume gap between the two teams for the head-to-head result not to matter.
TCU and Baylor each played an FCS team and the Horned Frogs routed Big Ten title contender Minnesota while the Bears blew out MAC also-ran Buffalo. Besides getting a lift from the Gophers' surprising season, TCU also owns a significant advantage over Baylor in the games so far against nine common opponents.
As TCU is unlikely to lose to 2-9 Iowa State, Baylor must defeat Kansas State impressively to have any shot of catching the Horned Frogs in the eyes of the committee. Making the task more difficult is that the Wildcats are playing for much more than spoiler, as they also will claim at least a share of the Big 12 title with a victory.
| TCU | Opponent | Baylor | Advantage |
| +56 * | SMU | +45 | TCU |
| +38 * | Texas | +21 * | TCU |
| +1 * | West Virginia | -14 * | TCU |
| +33 | Oklahoma State | +21 | TCU |
| +55 | Texas Tech | +2 | TCU |
| +4 | Oklahoma | +34 * | Baylor |
| +4 * | Kansas | +46 | Baylor |
| Dec. 6 | Iowa State | +21* | |
| +21 | Kansas State | Dec. 6 | |
| -3 * | Baylor/TCU | +3 | Baylor |
* Road game
Other Fun Facts
* Boise State is a victory over 6-6 Fresno State in the Mountain West Championship Game away from the inaugural CFP group-of-five automatic bid. It will be the Broncos' third major bowl appearance in the last nine seasons and likely it'll be a third Fiesta Bowl berth. Northern Illinois and Memphis figure to be next in line if Boise State somehow stumbles.
* The rest of the 11 bowl slots, of course, will all go to the power five conferences. The SEC will get three berths while the other conferences will receive two each. Mississippi State probably has a bid wrapped up regardless of how the conference championship games go.
* There are a total of 80 bowl eligible teams, with Oklahoma State and Temple can still earn eligibility. Georgia Southern, Appalachian State and Old Dominion will not go bowling as they're all in the second year of FBS transition and thus ineligible. Looks like Middle Tennessee, South Alabama, UAB and Ohio—all 6-6— will be left out despite being eligible.
Monday, November 17, 2014
Seven Contenders Left Standing
With three weeks left on the season, there are just seven FBS teams with no more than one loss. It's possible for all seven to win out, but only six will be able to claim (or share) their respective conference championships.
The selection committee's most difficult task now is to determine which three teams to leave out of the four-team playoff field if each wins its remaining games. Keep in mind that because the members pledged to look at the teams based on their entire body of work, the rankings may shift each week even without any of the teams losing.
So chances are the Top 4 teams you see this week won't be exactly the same next week, or the week after that. But the bottom line is that the current Top 3 teams are in the playoff if avoid losing, and the rest will have to fight it out for the final spot.
THE RANKINGS
The Playoff Teams
1. Oregon
The top spot is a toss-up between Oregon and Alabama, but we think the Ducks will get the edge because of their superior record against current Top 25 teams. They have beaten three ranked teams—UCLA, Michigan State and Utah—whereas the Tide have defeated just one, over Mississippi State on Saturday.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Rose Bowl
2. Alabama
Their win over the Bulldogs put the Tide back in the driver's seat in the SEC West race, but their work is far from done. A loss to Auburn in the Iron Bowl will keep them out of the SEC title game and almost certainly the inaugural playoff. As things stand now, Alabama can't afford a second loss.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Sugar Bowl
3. Florida State
The Seminoles will make the playoff if they win out, but they have no margin for error. FSU does not own a single victory over a ranked team so a first loss will prove fatal for its quest to repeat as the national champion. But with two home games plus the ACC title game—where they'll be double-digit favorites in all—the Noles have the easiest path to a playoff spot.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Sugar Bowl
4. TCU
The Horned Frogs probably will still hold on to this spot despite a lackluster win over Kansas. Keep in mind that since the committee isn't supposed to act like pollsters, weekly results shouldn't change the narrative too much as TCU has a better overall resume than Baylor and Ohio State. But by no means that the Frogs should feel comfortable as they've got nothing locked up even if they win out.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Rose Bowl
The First Four Out
5. Mississippi State
The Bulldogs need help (i.e., an Auburn upset in the Iron Bowl) to win the SEC West. They need a lot more help to get into the playoff as an at-large team. Because of Miss State's weak nonconference schedule, there is little chance for it to be selected for the four-team field if there are enough one-loss conference champions available.
Projected bowl: Cotton Bowl
6. Baylor
The Bears were idle this week, but got some good news with TCU's struggles with Kansas and also Arizona State's loss. At the end of the season, the committee will compare TCU and Baylor's resume side-by-side with close scrutiny as they share 10 common opponents. The margin of victories will matter if both teams finish 11-1 and share the Big 12 title.
Projected bowl: Cotton Bowl
7. Ohio State
The Buckeyes remain on the outside looking in (don't let Kirk Herbstreit's bracket fool you). Their close win over Minnesota won't help their cause as TCU blew out the Gophers early in the season. And that the fact a two-loss Wisconsin (at best) will be the best game left on their schedule won't provide them much of a boost. Ohio State needs lots of things to break its way.
Projected bowl: Fiesta Bowl
9. UCLA
A handful of two-loss teams are still clinging to hopes of crashing the playoff field, and out of this group UCLA might have the best shot. The Bruins control the tough Pac-12 South race and if they beat Oregon in a rematch in the conference title game, they might have a chance to steal a berth—but they'll need a ton of help.
Projected bowl: Fiesta Bowl
Other Fun Facts
* The group-of-five race likely is coming down to three teams and at this point you have to like Marshall's chances despite its less-than-rigorous schedule. Colorado State's path to the Mountain West championship is blocked by Boise State, which is also a contender but has two losses. Since seven of the committee's bottom 10 teams (Nos. 16-25) from last week lost, we expect to see at least one, if not two, non-power-five teams in the next rankings.
* There are 27 power-five teams with three or fewer losses and all but three or four of these teams will make the next rankings. The teams about certain to be excluded are Iowa, Minnesota and Louisville, with Oklahoma and Clemson expected to fight for the last one or two spots.
* The Orange Bowl picture—a berth is guaranteed to an ACC team even if Florida State makes the playoff—got a lot murkier after both Clemson and Duke lost on Saturday. The Blue Devils will repeat as the Coastal winner if they win their remaining two games. But there's a good chance that Georgia Tech might snag this bid even if it doesn't win its division but finishes the regular season with a victory in the Clean Old Fashioned Hate.
The selection committee's most difficult task now is to determine which three teams to leave out of the four-team playoff field if each wins its remaining games. Keep in mind that because the members pledged to look at the teams based on their entire body of work, the rankings may shift each week even without any of the teams losing.
So chances are the Top 4 teams you see this week won't be exactly the same next week, or the week after that. But the bottom line is that the current Top 3 teams are in the playoff if avoid losing, and the rest will have to fight it out for the final spot.
THE RANKINGS
The Playoff Teams
1. Oregon
The top spot is a toss-up between Oregon and Alabama, but we think the Ducks will get the edge because of their superior record against current Top 25 teams. They have beaten three ranked teams—UCLA, Michigan State and Utah—whereas the Tide have defeated just one, over Mississippi State on Saturday.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Rose Bowl
2. Alabama
Their win over the Bulldogs put the Tide back in the driver's seat in the SEC West race, but their work is far from done. A loss to Auburn in the Iron Bowl will keep them out of the SEC title game and almost certainly the inaugural playoff. As things stand now, Alabama can't afford a second loss.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Sugar Bowl
3. Florida State
The Seminoles will make the playoff if they win out, but they have no margin for error. FSU does not own a single victory over a ranked team so a first loss will prove fatal for its quest to repeat as the national champion. But with two home games plus the ACC title game—where they'll be double-digit favorites in all—the Noles have the easiest path to a playoff spot.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Sugar Bowl
4. TCU
The Horned Frogs probably will still hold on to this spot despite a lackluster win over Kansas. Keep in mind that since the committee isn't supposed to act like pollsters, weekly results shouldn't change the narrative too much as TCU has a better overall resume than Baylor and Ohio State. But by no means that the Frogs should feel comfortable as they've got nothing locked up even if they win out.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Rose Bowl
The First Four Out
5. Mississippi State
The Bulldogs need help (i.e., an Auburn upset in the Iron Bowl) to win the SEC West. They need a lot more help to get into the playoff as an at-large team. Because of Miss State's weak nonconference schedule, there is little chance for it to be selected for the four-team field if there are enough one-loss conference champions available.
Projected bowl: Cotton Bowl
6. Baylor
The Bears were idle this week, but got some good news with TCU's struggles with Kansas and also Arizona State's loss. At the end of the season, the committee will compare TCU and Baylor's resume side-by-side with close scrutiny as they share 10 common opponents. The margin of victories will matter if both teams finish 11-1 and share the Big 12 title.
Projected bowl: Cotton Bowl
7. Ohio State
The Buckeyes remain on the outside looking in (don't let Kirk Herbstreit's bracket fool you). Their close win over Minnesota won't help their cause as TCU blew out the Gophers early in the season. And that the fact a two-loss Wisconsin (at best) will be the best game left on their schedule won't provide them much of a boost. Ohio State needs lots of things to break its way.
Projected bowl: Fiesta Bowl
9. UCLA
A handful of two-loss teams are still clinging to hopes of crashing the playoff field, and out of this group UCLA might have the best shot. The Bruins control the tough Pac-12 South race and if they beat Oregon in a rematch in the conference title game, they might have a chance to steal a berth—but they'll need a ton of help.
Projected bowl: Fiesta Bowl
Other Fun Facts
* The group-of-five race likely is coming down to three teams and at this point you have to like Marshall's chances despite its less-than-rigorous schedule. Colorado State's path to the Mountain West championship is blocked by Boise State, which is also a contender but has two losses. Since seven of the committee's bottom 10 teams (Nos. 16-25) from last week lost, we expect to see at least one, if not two, non-power-five teams in the next rankings.
* There are 27 power-five teams with three or fewer losses and all but three or four of these teams will make the next rankings. The teams about certain to be excluded are Iowa, Minnesota and Louisville, with Oklahoma and Clemson expected to fight for the last one or two spots.
* The Orange Bowl picture—a berth is guaranteed to an ACC team even if Florida State makes the playoff—got a lot murkier after both Clemson and Duke lost on Saturday. The Blue Devils will repeat as the Coastal winner if they win their remaining two games. But there's a good chance that Georgia Tech might snag this bid even if it doesn't win its division but finishes the regular season with a victory in the Clean Old Fashioned Hate.
Friday, May 30, 2014
College Football Should Dump Divisions
With all the bellyaching about the recent decisions by the SEC and ACC to keep eight-game conference schedules, a most important point was largely missed. The scheduling setup makes competition within those conferences unfair.
Whenever there's an imbalance in the strengths of the conference's divisions, the race for the championship will become lopsided. Essentially, you'll rarely get the two best teams to play in the conference championship games.
And on top of that there's also the issue of preserving the familiarity and cohesion within the conferences. When the SEC decided to adopt the 6+1 model, with seven of the eight conference games permanently set, it means that six teams within your own conference won't set foot on your campus for an entire decade. In the case of the ACC, teams will see Notre Dame—technically not a member—more often than a few actual member schools.
There is an easy way to fix this, and it's already been put on the table: College football should dump divisions.
College basketball has been getting along just fine without divisions, even though some leagues have as many as 16 teams. Only three of the 32 conferences employ divisions, and none of the major conferences.
The divisions came into existence in 1992 when then-SEC commissioner Roy Kramer exploited a little-known NCAA bylaw in order to stage a conference championship game after the SEC expanded to 12 teams. All other major conferences followed suit. But as realignment made conferences bigger—beginning in 2014 the ACC, Big Ten and SEC will all have 14 teams—the divisional setup has become more unwieldy.
In March, the ACC in collaboration with the Big 12 submitted a proposal to drop divisions while allowing conferences to continue staging championship games. It was tabled during the NCAA's April meetings but may be considered when the board convenes again in August.
The 10-team Big 12, currently the only one of the five major conferences without a divisional setup or a title game, believes dumping divisions only makes sense as we move into the College Football Playoff era this fall.
"You wouldn't any longer have to have 12 (teams)," Big 12 commissioner Bowlsby told Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports in March. "You wouldn't any longer have to play a full round-robin in your subdivision. That would actually afford us the opportunity to have a playoff between two selected teams by whatever process we would want to select.
"Theoretically, we could say we're going to take the two highest in the BCS rankings and have them play at the end of the season."
In fact, the Big 12 has already taken steps toward making that a reality. This week the conference formally adopted a new tiebreaking procedure, tying it to the CFP poll as released by the selection committee. The same procedure obviously may be applied should it become necessary to determine the two teams to play in the conference championship game.
There is one other peripheral, though not unimportant, benefit to dumping the divisions. It is widely believed that the Big 12 will eventually expand back up to 12 teams in order to stage a conference title game. If that's no longer a prerequisite, then we might have some stability with conference memberships for awhile after five years of constant realignment maneuvers.
Whenever there's an imbalance in the strengths of the conference's divisions, the race for the championship will become lopsided. Essentially, you'll rarely get the two best teams to play in the conference championship games.
And on top of that there's also the issue of preserving the familiarity and cohesion within the conferences. When the SEC decided to adopt the 6+1 model, with seven of the eight conference games permanently set, it means that six teams within your own conference won't set foot on your campus for an entire decade. In the case of the ACC, teams will see Notre Dame—technically not a member—more often than a few actual member schools.
There is an easy way to fix this, and it's already been put on the table: College football should dump divisions.
College basketball has been getting along just fine without divisions, even though some leagues have as many as 16 teams. Only three of the 32 conferences employ divisions, and none of the major conferences.
The divisions came into existence in 1992 when then-SEC commissioner Roy Kramer exploited a little-known NCAA bylaw in order to stage a conference championship game after the SEC expanded to 12 teams. All other major conferences followed suit. But as realignment made conferences bigger—beginning in 2014 the ACC, Big Ten and SEC will all have 14 teams—the divisional setup has become more unwieldy.
In March, the ACC in collaboration with the Big 12 submitted a proposal to drop divisions while allowing conferences to continue staging championship games. It was tabled during the NCAA's April meetings but may be considered when the board convenes again in August.
The 10-team Big 12, currently the only one of the five major conferences without a divisional setup or a title game, believes dumping divisions only makes sense as we move into the College Football Playoff era this fall.
"You wouldn't any longer have to have 12 (teams)," Big 12 commissioner Bowlsby told Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports in March. "You wouldn't any longer have to play a full round-robin in your subdivision. That would actually afford us the opportunity to have a playoff between two selected teams by whatever process we would want to select.
"Theoretically, we could say we're going to take the two highest in the BCS rankings and have them play at the end of the season."
In fact, the Big 12 has already taken steps toward making that a reality. This week the conference formally adopted a new tiebreaking procedure, tying it to the CFP poll as released by the selection committee. The same procedure obviously may be applied should it become necessary to determine the two teams to play in the conference championship game.
There is one other peripheral, though not unimportant, benefit to dumping the divisions. It is widely believed that the Big 12 will eventually expand back up to 12 teams in order to stage a conference title game. If that's no longer a prerequisite, then we might have some stability with conference memberships for awhile after five years of constant realignment maneuvers.
Tuesday, March 18, 2014
College Football No Longer Needs Divisions
With realignment once again taking center stage in the 2014 season, a new question has popped up. Should FBS conferences dispense with the divisional setup in football?
Next season, three of the Big Five conferences will have 14 teams each, divided into seven-team divisions. Of the 10 conferences that play FBS football, seven of them will have divisions, with their respective winners meeting in conference championship games. By 2015 (assuming there are no other changes), only the Big 12 and Sun Belt will not stage conference title games.
This is in stark contrast with college basketball. Of the 32 Division I conferences, only three (Big South, Mid-American, Ohio Valley) have divisional splits. The other 29 conferences, including all of the "Big Five," play without an internal split of teams.
College football may be moving in that direction, too.
The ACC has submitted a proposal to "deregulate" football conference championship games, according to CBS Sports' Dennis Dodd. It's seeking to discard legislation that requires conferences to have at least 12 teams divided into two divisions in order to have a conference title game.
This proposal has wide-ranging support among all FBS conferences, and it's not difficult to see why. Divisional setups have been typically arbitrary—just look at the thankfully euthanized "Legends" and "Leaders" divisions in the Big Ten or the fact that Missouri is in the SEC "East" since joining the conference when Columbia, Mo., is west of every SEC campus except Arkansas and Texas A&M.
And with the advent of the 14-team divisions, if the current legislation is upheld, a team could conceivably go 12 years between visits to the stadium of a fellow conference member that's not in its division.
Since it's obvious that conference championship games are here to stay—there's just too much money to be made from television revenue—there's no way these conferences will voluntarily discard the divisional setup unless it's no longer required to stage a title game. But if they're freed from the binds of divisions, then conferences will have a much freer hand in how they want to stage the title games.
They may decide to match up the teams with the best records, thus maximizing the potential of their champions' chances of qualifying for the College Football Playoff. They also would be able to stage a title game without having 12 teams (think of the 10-team Big 12), thus eliminating the pressing need that fueled realignment in the first place.
For the fans and television executives, this is also a no-brainer. There will be more varied matchups within all conferences and theoretically the championship games would be more attractive since they won't be subject to the whimsical nature of the divisions.
It just makes too much sense. But since this is the NCAA we're talking about, the approval of the proposal is far from a sure thing.
Next season, three of the Big Five conferences will have 14 teams each, divided into seven-team divisions. Of the 10 conferences that play FBS football, seven of them will have divisions, with their respective winners meeting in conference championship games. By 2015 (assuming there are no other changes), only the Big 12 and Sun Belt will not stage conference title games.
This is in stark contrast with college basketball. Of the 32 Division I conferences, only three (Big South, Mid-American, Ohio Valley) have divisional splits. The other 29 conferences, including all of the "Big Five," play without an internal split of teams.
College football may be moving in that direction, too.
The ACC has submitted a proposal to "deregulate" football conference championship games, according to CBS Sports' Dennis Dodd. It's seeking to discard legislation that requires conferences to have at least 12 teams divided into two divisions in order to have a conference title game.
This proposal has wide-ranging support among all FBS conferences, and it's not difficult to see why. Divisional setups have been typically arbitrary—just look at the thankfully euthanized "Legends" and "Leaders" divisions in the Big Ten or the fact that Missouri is in the SEC "East" since joining the conference when Columbia, Mo., is west of every SEC campus except Arkansas and Texas A&M.
And with the advent of the 14-team divisions, if the current legislation is upheld, a team could conceivably go 12 years between visits to the stadium of a fellow conference member that's not in its division.
Since it's obvious that conference championship games are here to stay—there's just too much money to be made from television revenue—there's no way these conferences will voluntarily discard the divisional setup unless it's no longer required to stage a title game. But if they're freed from the binds of divisions, then conferences will have a much freer hand in how they want to stage the title games.
They may decide to match up the teams with the best records, thus maximizing the potential of their champions' chances of qualifying for the College Football Playoff. They also would be able to stage a title game without having 12 teams (think of the 10-team Big 12), thus eliminating the pressing need that fueled realignment in the first place.
For the fans and television executives, this is also a no-brainer. There will be more varied matchups within all conferences and theoretically the championship games would be more attractive since they won't be subject to the whimsical nature of the divisions.
It just makes too much sense. But since this is the NCAA we're talking about, the approval of the proposal is far from a sure thing.
Thursday, February 27, 2014
Big 12, ACC Dogged by Also-Ran Status
They are supposed to be the "Big Five" conferences as the College Football Playoff era begins in 2014. But upon closer examination, there are really the "Big Three" and then the "Next Two."
We've covered the SEC, Big Ten and Pac-12 in previous pieces analyzing the respective conferences' competitive and financial status as the BCS gives way to CFP. That leaves us with the ACC and Big 12, which face more uncertainty and issues of membership stability, as well as falling behind in the revenue arms race.
Why these two conferences are considered the lesser of the five can be viewed through the lens of conference expansions, which the Big Ten kicked off by poaching Nebraska from the Big 12:
The Big 12 was nearly gutted out of existence after losing four teams to other power conferences. Only a last-minute deal that gave Texas preferential treatment preserved the current 10-team conference, but it also sowed the seeds for potential future discontent. The current membership seems unlikely to be poached in the near future because of the grant-of-rights agreements, though even that is said to be not fool-proof.
For now, the Big 12 appears to be content to keep it at 10 teams and without a conference championship game. Having fewer teams means a bigger cut in the television money for each member school, which currently enjoys north of $20 million in revenue annually. Commissioner Bob Bowlsby has said that there are no current expansion plans, and that might very well be true until the Big 12's TV contracts run out after the 2024 season.
At least the Big 12 has remained competitive on the field, despite all the recent turmoil. Texas won the conference's last national title in 2005 and is seeking to rebuild under Charlie Strong after a couple of mediocre seasons. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas State all have been factors in the national championship race in the past few seasons.
The ACC has been more proactive in protecting its interests, and thus it's in a better position entering the new era. Of course, Florida State winning the final BCS championship couldn't hurt, either.
While it did lose Maryland to the Big Ten, the ACC got out ahead of the expansion frenzy by poaching Syracuse and Pittsburgh from the Big East and then added another ex-Big Easter Louisville to replace Maryland. While these programs marginally boosted the ACC's football profile, they cemented its status as the premier basketball conference.
The one big football acquisition for the ACC is Notre Dame, even though the Irish joined the conference in all sports except football. Beginning next season, they will play at least five ACC teams every season, and that addition has already paid dividends as each conference team is due to receive an extra million in revenue going forward.
Notre Dame made the switch out of self-preservation, even though it continues to print money like nearly no other program. It just inked the richest athletic apparel deal with Under Armour (10 years at $90 million) after extending its exclusive NBC TV contract through the 2025 season.
But all that cash can't buy the Irish competitiveness on the field as they were routed in all four BCS bowl appearances, including a 42-14 drubbing by Alabama in the 2012 BCS title game. Notre Dame isn't getting more guarantees in the CFP than it had in the BCS, especially when it comes to the four-team playoff field. In a new era when super conferences will only become even more dominant, the Irish face a treacherous future by continuing to strike out on their own as an independent.
We've covered the SEC, Big Ten and Pac-12 in previous pieces analyzing the respective conferences' competitive and financial status as the BCS gives way to CFP. That leaves us with the ACC and Big 12, which face more uncertainty and issues of membership stability, as well as falling behind in the revenue arms race.
Why these two conferences are considered the lesser of the five can be viewed through the lens of conference expansions, which the Big Ten kicked off by poaching Nebraska from the Big 12:
- Big Ten: Nebraska (Big 12), Maryland (ACC), Rutgers (Big East)
- SEC: Texas A&M, Missouri (both Big 12)
- Pac-12: Colorado (Big 12), Utah (Mountain West)
| Conference | Revenue Per School* | Network Partners | Expires |
| SEC (14) | $34 million | ESPN, CBS, SEC | 2023 |
| Big Ten (14) | $30 million | ESPN, FOX, BTN | 2016 |
| Pac-12 (12) | $21 million | ESPN, FOX, P-12 | 2023 |
| Big 12 (10) | $20 million | ESPN, FOX | 2024 |
| ACC (14) | $18 million | ESPN | 2026 |
| Notre Dame | N/A | NBC | 2025 |
The Big 12 was nearly gutted out of existence after losing four teams to other power conferences. Only a last-minute deal that gave Texas preferential treatment preserved the current 10-team conference, but it also sowed the seeds for potential future discontent. The current membership seems unlikely to be poached in the near future because of the grant-of-rights agreements, though even that is said to be not fool-proof.
For now, the Big 12 appears to be content to keep it at 10 teams and without a conference championship game. Having fewer teams means a bigger cut in the television money for each member school, which currently enjoys north of $20 million in revenue annually. Commissioner Bob Bowlsby has said that there are no current expansion plans, and that might very well be true until the Big 12's TV contracts run out after the 2024 season.
At least the Big 12 has remained competitive on the field, despite all the recent turmoil. Texas won the conference's last national title in 2005 and is seeking to rebuild under Charlie Strong after a couple of mediocre seasons. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas State all have been factors in the national championship race in the past few seasons.
The ACC has been more proactive in protecting its interests, and thus it's in a better position entering the new era. Of course, Florida State winning the final BCS championship couldn't hurt, either.
While it did lose Maryland to the Big Ten, the ACC got out ahead of the expansion frenzy by poaching Syracuse and Pittsburgh from the Big East and then added another ex-Big Easter Louisville to replace Maryland. While these programs marginally boosted the ACC's football profile, they cemented its status as the premier basketball conference.
The one big football acquisition for the ACC is Notre Dame, even though the Irish joined the conference in all sports except football. Beginning next season, they will play at least five ACC teams every season, and that addition has already paid dividends as each conference team is due to receive an extra million in revenue going forward.
Notre Dame made the switch out of self-preservation, even though it continues to print money like nearly no other program. It just inked the richest athletic apparel deal with Under Armour (10 years at $90 million) after extending its exclusive NBC TV contract through the 2025 season.
But all that cash can't buy the Irish competitiveness on the field as they were routed in all four BCS bowl appearances, including a 42-14 drubbing by Alabama in the 2012 BCS title game. Notre Dame isn't getting more guarantees in the CFP than it had in the BCS, especially when it comes to the four-team playoff field. In a new era when super conferences will only become even more dominant, the Irish face a treacherous future by continuing to strike out on their own as an independent.
Thursday, January 23, 2014
BCS Review Series: 2010, SEC and Pac-10 Finally Have a Date
Part 13 of a series: Over the next few weeks, I will be reviewing each of the 16 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. Here is a look back at who got lucky, who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear throughout December and January.
Part 1: 1998, A New Beginning for College Football
Part 2: 1999, FSU Ends Michael Vick's Quest for Perfection
Part 3: 2000, FSU-Miami Sows Seeds of Controversy
Part 4: 2001, Nebraska Fiasco Rocks College Football
Part 5: 2002, Controversy on Field Mars Perfect Ending
Part 6: 2003, Nightmare of Split National Championship
Part 7: 2004, Unbeaten Auburn Left Out in the Cold
Part 8: 2005, Perfect Season Ends With Epic at Rose Bowl
Part 9: 2006, Dawn of SEC's Reign in College Football
Part 10: 2007, LSU Goes "Undefeated in Regulation"
Part 11: 2008, SEC Wins in Polls, Then on the Field
Part 12: 2009, Alabama, Texas More Equal Than Others
---
Defending champion Alabama opened the 2010 season as the odds-on favorite to repeat, with Heisman-winning running back Mark Ingram and senior quarterback Greg McElroy both returning to lead a veteran team. But it was their in-state rival, Auburn, that grabbed the headlines and—ultimately—the crystal ball.
Behind rent-a-QB Cam Newton, who had been drummed out of Florida as Tim Tebow's backup, it was the Tigers who arrived at the Iron Bowl the day after Thanksgiving as the team ranked No. 1 with national championship aspirations. Auburn has had a few close calls—winning three games by a field goal—though nothing like the War Damn Miracle variety of 2013.
Behind McElroy's aerial assault, it looked like Alabama was going to shatter Auburn's dreams. The Tide went up 21-0 and were poised to make it 28-0, but they had to settle for a field goal and a 24-0 lead midway through the second quarter. That little crack was all the reprieve the Tigers needed, as Newton led a stunning comeback for a 28-27 victory and a spot in the SEC Championship Game.
But South Carolina was less of an obstacle in Auburn's way of a national championship than the NCAA, which was probing all season just how Newton landed on The Plains. Newton's father, Cecil, had shopped his son's services for upwards of $180,000 to Mississippi State. But the NCAA decided that since no money changed hands, everything was kosher and cleared Newton to play for the SEC title three days before the game.
Once there, the Tigers mauled South Carolina, setting up the first—and as it turned out, only—matchup between SEC and Pac-10 teams in the BCS Championship Game. Oregon had obliterated all of its opponents other than one close-call at Cal. And the title game would be decided on one bizarre play.
Instead of an expected shootout, the game at the University of Phoenix Stadium was a defensive struggle. With the score tied at 19-19 and less than two minutes to go, Auburn running back Michael Dyer was stopped after an apparent short gain. But because his knee didn't touch the ground, Dyer got up and alertly turned it into a 37-yard play that put Auburn in field-goal range.
Wes Byrum's 22-yard kick as time expired gave Auburn a 22-19 victory and the fifth consecutive BCS title for the SEC. The Tigers' reign was short-lived—as was widely expected—with Newton bolting for the NFL after just one season. Dyer would be booted off the team the following season (ending up at Louisville in 2013 after a year out of football), and head coach Gene Chizik was fired just two seasons later—after a 3-9 campaign in 2012. He was replaced by the offensive mastermind of the 2010 team, Gus Malzahn, who would turn around Auburn faster than you can say "Kick Six."
The game also marked just the third—and last—BCS title game appearance for the Pac-10, which would embark on an ambitious realignment gambit that nearly obliterated college football as we knew it.
Final BCS Standings: 1. Auburn, 2. Oregon, 3. TCU.
Likely four-team playoff: Auburn vs. Wisconsin; Oregon vs. TCU
Although Stanford was ranked ahead of Wisconsin, the Cardinal probably would've been kept out of the playoff because they did not win the conference.
Controversies
TCU in the Rose Bowl: For a second consecutive year, TCU finished the season undefeated but was denied a shot at playing for the BCS championship. The Horned Frogs came agonizingly close, as they'd become the first non-AQ team to play for the title had Alabama held on to win the Iron Bowl.
They did get a decent consolation prize, though. Per a new agreement with the BCS, the Rose Bowl must now take a non-AQ team once if it's available in the final four-year cycle of the BCS. Because of this provision, TCU was bound for Pasadena to face Wisconsin while Pac-10 runner-up Stanford was dispatched to the Orange Bowl. TCU beat the Big Ten champ in a thriller and finished second in the final AP poll.
Boise State snubbed, Again: The Broncos were neck-and-neck with TCU for much of the season in the BCS standings, but only one team was guaranteed to earn a BCS automatic berth. As was the case in 2009, though, the BCS probably wouldn't dare to snub either team had they both finished in the top five of the final standings.
But everything went "poof!" for Boise on the same night Auburn stormed back to win the Iron Bowl. Had the Tigers lost that game, the Broncos would have not only had a chance for a BCS bowl berth, but maybe even a spot in the national title game, too.
Perhaps a bit dispirited by Auburn's comeback, the Broncos struggled against the Colin Kaepernick-led Nevada team all night. But still, they just needed a Kyle Brotzman 25-yard chip shot to seal the win as time expired. He missed, and after the Broncos lost in overtime, they were out of the BCS picture altogether—despite finishing 10th in the final BCS standings and ahead of both the ACC and Big East champs.
Final analysis: The 2010 season marked the end of an era as conference realignment would sweep through college football in the offseason.
First, Nebraska departed the Big 12 for the Big Ten. Then, the Pac-10 came up with an audacious plan that threatened to break apart the Big 12, with Texas and Oklahoma the prime targets for poaching. The conference came up with a plan to save itself, but its preferential treatment for the Longhorns in the scheme enraged rival Texas A&M to bolt for the SEC a year later.
The realignment frenzy had its roots in the formation of the BCS, as the gulf between the haves and have-nots greatly expanded in the preceding decade. Tempted by the vast amounts of TV and bowl dollars, many schools abandoned a century of tradition to find greener pastures.
Part 1: 1998, A New Beginning for College Football
Part 2: 1999, FSU Ends Michael Vick's Quest for Perfection
Part 3: 2000, FSU-Miami Sows Seeds of Controversy
Part 4: 2001, Nebraska Fiasco Rocks College Football
Part 5: 2002, Controversy on Field Mars Perfect Ending
Part 6: 2003, Nightmare of Split National Championship
Part 7: 2004, Unbeaten Auburn Left Out in the Cold
Part 8: 2005, Perfect Season Ends With Epic at Rose Bowl
Part 9: 2006, Dawn of SEC's Reign in College Football
Part 10: 2007, LSU Goes "Undefeated in Regulation"
Part 11: 2008, SEC Wins in Polls, Then on the Field
Part 12: 2009, Alabama, Texas More Equal Than Others
---
Defending champion Alabama opened the 2010 season as the odds-on favorite to repeat, with Heisman-winning running back Mark Ingram and senior quarterback Greg McElroy both returning to lead a veteran team. But it was their in-state rival, Auburn, that grabbed the headlines and—ultimately—the crystal ball.
Behind rent-a-QB Cam Newton, who had been drummed out of Florida as Tim Tebow's backup, it was the Tigers who arrived at the Iron Bowl the day after Thanksgiving as the team ranked No. 1 with national championship aspirations. Auburn has had a few close calls—winning three games by a field goal—though nothing like the War Damn Miracle variety of 2013.
Behind McElroy's aerial assault, it looked like Alabama was going to shatter Auburn's dreams. The Tide went up 21-0 and were poised to make it 28-0, but they had to settle for a field goal and a 24-0 lead midway through the second quarter. That little crack was all the reprieve the Tigers needed, as Newton led a stunning comeback for a 28-27 victory and a spot in the SEC Championship Game.
But South Carolina was less of an obstacle in Auburn's way of a national championship than the NCAA, which was probing all season just how Newton landed on The Plains. Newton's father, Cecil, had shopped his son's services for upwards of $180,000 to Mississippi State. But the NCAA decided that since no money changed hands, everything was kosher and cleared Newton to play for the SEC title three days before the game.
Once there, the Tigers mauled South Carolina, setting up the first—and as it turned out, only—matchup between SEC and Pac-10 teams in the BCS Championship Game. Oregon had obliterated all of its opponents other than one close-call at Cal. And the title game would be decided on one bizarre play.
Instead of an expected shootout, the game at the University of Phoenix Stadium was a defensive struggle. With the score tied at 19-19 and less than two minutes to go, Auburn running back Michael Dyer was stopped after an apparent short gain. But because his knee didn't touch the ground, Dyer got up and alertly turned it into a 37-yard play that put Auburn in field-goal range.
Wes Byrum's 22-yard kick as time expired gave Auburn a 22-19 victory and the fifth consecutive BCS title for the SEC. The Tigers' reign was short-lived—as was widely expected—with Newton bolting for the NFL after just one season. Dyer would be booted off the team the following season (ending up at Louisville in 2013 after a year out of football), and head coach Gene Chizik was fired just two seasons later—after a 3-9 campaign in 2012. He was replaced by the offensive mastermind of the 2010 team, Gus Malzahn, who would turn around Auburn faster than you can say "Kick Six."
The game also marked just the third—and last—BCS title game appearance for the Pac-10, which would embark on an ambitious realignment gambit that nearly obliterated college football as we knew it.
Final BCS Standings: 1. Auburn, 2. Oregon, 3. TCU.
Likely four-team playoff: Auburn vs. Wisconsin; Oregon vs. TCU
Although Stanford was ranked ahead of Wisconsin, the Cardinal probably would've been kept out of the playoff because they did not win the conference.
Controversies
TCU in the Rose Bowl: For a second consecutive year, TCU finished the season undefeated but was denied a shot at playing for the BCS championship. The Horned Frogs came agonizingly close, as they'd become the first non-AQ team to play for the title had Alabama held on to win the Iron Bowl.
They did get a decent consolation prize, though. Per a new agreement with the BCS, the Rose Bowl must now take a non-AQ team once if it's available in the final four-year cycle of the BCS. Because of this provision, TCU was bound for Pasadena to face Wisconsin while Pac-10 runner-up Stanford was dispatched to the Orange Bowl. TCU beat the Big Ten champ in a thriller and finished second in the final AP poll.
Boise State snubbed, Again: The Broncos were neck-and-neck with TCU for much of the season in the BCS standings, but only one team was guaranteed to earn a BCS automatic berth. As was the case in 2009, though, the BCS probably wouldn't dare to snub either team had they both finished in the top five of the final standings.
But everything went "poof!" for Boise on the same night Auburn stormed back to win the Iron Bowl. Had the Tigers lost that game, the Broncos would have not only had a chance for a BCS bowl berth, but maybe even a spot in the national title game, too.
Perhaps a bit dispirited by Auburn's comeback, the Broncos struggled against the Colin Kaepernick-led Nevada team all night. But still, they just needed a Kyle Brotzman 25-yard chip shot to seal the win as time expired. He missed, and after the Broncos lost in overtime, they were out of the BCS picture altogether—despite finishing 10th in the final BCS standings and ahead of both the ACC and Big East champs.
| Bowl | Score | Attendance | TV Rating |
| BCS Champ* | #1 Auburn 22, #2 Oregon 19 | 78,603 | 15.3 |
| Rose Bowl | #3 TCU 21, #5 Wisconsin 19 | 94,118 | 11.3 |
| Sugar Bowl | #6 Ohio St. 31, #8 Arkansas 26 | 73,879 | 8.2 |
| Orange Bowl | #4 Stanford 40, #13 Va. Tech 12 | 65,453 | 6.8 |
| Fiesta Bowl | #7 Oklahoma 48, UConn 20 | 67,232 | 6.2 |
Final analysis: The 2010 season marked the end of an era as conference realignment would sweep through college football in the offseason.
First, Nebraska departed the Big 12 for the Big Ten. Then, the Pac-10 came up with an audacious plan that threatened to break apart the Big 12, with Texas and Oklahoma the prime targets for poaching. The conference came up with a plan to save itself, but its preferential treatment for the Longhorns in the scheme enraged rival Texas A&M to bolt for the SEC a year later.
The realignment frenzy had its roots in the formation of the BCS, as the gulf between the haves and have-nots greatly expanded in the preceding decade. Tempted by the vast amounts of TV and bowl dollars, many schools abandoned a century of tradition to find greener pastures.
Thursday, January 16, 2014
BCS Review Series: 2008, SEC Claims High Ground in Narrative
Part 11 of a series: Over the next few weeks, I will be reviewing each of the 16 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. Here is a look back at who got lucky, who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear throughout December and January.
Part 1: 1998, A New Beginning for College Football
Part 2: 1999, FSU Ends Michael Vick's Quest for Perfection
Part 3: 2000, FSU-Miami Sows Seeds of Controversy
Part 4: 2001, Nebraska Fiasco Rocks College Football
Part 5: 2002, Controversy On-Field Mars Perfect Ending
Part 6: 2003, Nightmare of Split National Championship
Part 7: 2004, Unbeaten Auburn Left Out in the Cold
Part 8: 2005, Perfect Season Ends With Epic at Rose Bowl
Part 9: 2006, Dawn of SEC's Reign in College Football
Part 10: 2007, LSU Goes "Undefeated in Regulation"
---
Two consecutive blowout victories in the BCS championship game (both over Ohio State) helped to jump-start the narrative of SEC supremacy. Now self-branded as "the toughest conference in college football," the SEC's dominance in perception became that much more evident.
At the end of the regular season, seven BCS conference teams finished with one loss each, and two others—Utah and Boise State—went undefeated. But just as it was in 2007, when five major conference champions vied for one BCS title game slot, in 2008 the SEC came out on top yet again.
For the second time in three years, Florida made it to the BCS title game, this time despite a loss at home to Ole Miss. The Gators sunk to No. 15 in the BCS standings, all but seemingly out of it, after the late-September loss to the Rebels. Yet after defeating previously-unbeaten Alabama in the SEC title game, Florida had a date in Miami with Oklahoma in the BCS title game.
USC wasn't so lucky after also an early-September loss at Oregon State. The Trojans had opened the season with a resounding 35-3 pounding of No. 3 Ohio State at the Coliseum. But despite running the table the rest of the way—including three shutouts and five other games where they gave up just one score—that lone loss to the Beavers proved fatal to their title aspirations.
The same was the case for Penn State, which suffered its lone loss on a last-second field at Iowa in early November. It was the second time in four years that Joe Paterno's team was one play away from a perfect regular season. And just like in 2005, the Nittany Lions never got a whiff of the BCS title game.
Then there was the trio of Big 12 teams that managed to deal each other a single loss in a Reservoir Dogs-style Mexican standoff. Texas defeated Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout. Texas Tech shot down the Longhorns on a last-second TD catch by Michael Crabtree. Then Oklahoma slaughtered the Red Raiders to complete the three-way tie for first place in the Big 12 South.
The Sooners edged Texas (and Texas Tech) in the penultimate BCS standings, thanks entirely to superior computer rankings, earning a trip to the Big 12 title game, where they routed Missouri to earn a spot in the BCS title game. Longhorns coach Mack Brown, who had swiped a Rose Bowl berth in 2004 when the BCS standings worked in his favor, now had his comeuppance.
At the end, the team that had the most amount of legitimate grievance might've been Utah, which finished the season as the lone undefeated team. The Utes dominated Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, beating the Tide (31-17) worse than Florida did in the SEC title game (31-20). In the final AP poll, 16 of the 65 voters cast their ballots with Utah No. 1, but that wasn't enough to earn a split championship after Tim Tebow and Co. held off the turnover-prone Sooners in the BCS title game.
Final BCS Standings: 1. Oklahoma, 2. Florida, 3. Texas, 4. Alabama, 5. USC, 6. Utah, 7. Texas Tech.
Likely four-team playoff: Oklahoma vs. Utah; Florida vs. USC.
With preference for conference champions and that Utah had a better resume than fellow unbeaten Boise State, these four teams would've been the most solid picks, even without the benefit of hindsight.
Controversies
BCS standings as a tiebreaker: The BCS standings were created for the sole purpose of matching up the top two-ranked teams to play for the BCS title. Yet, by the mid-2000s, conferences began using the standings to break ties either for the conference title or within divisions. This misapplication had its worst consequences in 2008, when OU just nudged Texas—a team it had lost to—for a spot in the Big 12 title game and, ultimately, a spot in the BCS title game.
This misuse would continue, without being discouraged by the BCS brass, until the end of the BCS era. In fact, even conferences that had no part in the BCS tried to use it to break ties, leading to the comical Conference USA debacle in 2013.
Boise State snub: For the second time in the BCS era, Boise State went undefeated and was denied a BCS bowl berth, also the sixth time it finished with either zero or one loss and had to settle for a minor bowl.
The Broncos were ranked No. 9 in the final BCS standings, yet they weren't guaranteed a berth because another non-AQ champion, Utah, was ahead at No. 6. The Fiesta Bowl then bypassed Boise to take No. 10 Ohio State as an at-large, while both No. 12 Cincinnati (Big East) and No. 19 Virginia Tech (ACC) had automatic berths.
But this Boise State snub generated enough public outrage that, when the very scenario occurred again the next year, the Broncos were given their just due.
Final analysis: With Florida's win over Oklahoma in the BCS title game, the "SEC-as-top-dog" perception reached new heights as the conference has now won three straight BCS championships. The on-field success helped to fuel the off-field brand building process that permanently granted the SEC a first-among-equals status for the remainder of the BCS era.
The SEC champion reached the BCS title game in each of the eight years between 2006-2013. And in seven of those eight seasons, an SEC team beat out another major conference champion that had the same number of losses for a spot in the championship game—including in 2011, when Alabama advanced to the all-SEC title matchup in spite of not winning its division.
The Tide lost back-to-back games to Florida and Utah to finish the 2008 season, but their dynasty was just on the verge of being unleashed.
Part 1: 1998, A New Beginning for College Football
Part 2: 1999, FSU Ends Michael Vick's Quest for Perfection
Part 3: 2000, FSU-Miami Sows Seeds of Controversy
Part 4: 2001, Nebraska Fiasco Rocks College Football
Part 5: 2002, Controversy On-Field Mars Perfect Ending
Part 6: 2003, Nightmare of Split National Championship
Part 7: 2004, Unbeaten Auburn Left Out in the Cold
Part 8: 2005, Perfect Season Ends With Epic at Rose Bowl
Part 9: 2006, Dawn of SEC's Reign in College Football
Part 10: 2007, LSU Goes "Undefeated in Regulation"
---
Two consecutive blowout victories in the BCS championship game (both over Ohio State) helped to jump-start the narrative of SEC supremacy. Now self-branded as "the toughest conference in college football," the SEC's dominance in perception became that much more evident.
At the end of the regular season, seven BCS conference teams finished with one loss each, and two others—Utah and Boise State—went undefeated. But just as it was in 2007, when five major conference champions vied for one BCS title game slot, in 2008 the SEC came out on top yet again.
For the second time in three years, Florida made it to the BCS title game, this time despite a loss at home to Ole Miss. The Gators sunk to No. 15 in the BCS standings, all but seemingly out of it, after the late-September loss to the Rebels. Yet after defeating previously-unbeaten Alabama in the SEC title game, Florida had a date in Miami with Oklahoma in the BCS title game.
USC wasn't so lucky after also an early-September loss at Oregon State. The Trojans had opened the season with a resounding 35-3 pounding of No. 3 Ohio State at the Coliseum. But despite running the table the rest of the way—including three shutouts and five other games where they gave up just one score—that lone loss to the Beavers proved fatal to their title aspirations.
The same was the case for Penn State, which suffered its lone loss on a last-second field at Iowa in early November. It was the second time in four years that Joe Paterno's team was one play away from a perfect regular season. And just like in 2005, the Nittany Lions never got a whiff of the BCS title game.
Then there was the trio of Big 12 teams that managed to deal each other a single loss in a Reservoir Dogs-style Mexican standoff. Texas defeated Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout. Texas Tech shot down the Longhorns on a last-second TD catch by Michael Crabtree. Then Oklahoma slaughtered the Red Raiders to complete the three-way tie for first place in the Big 12 South.
The Sooners edged Texas (and Texas Tech) in the penultimate BCS standings, thanks entirely to superior computer rankings, earning a trip to the Big 12 title game, where they routed Missouri to earn a spot in the BCS title game. Longhorns coach Mack Brown, who had swiped a Rose Bowl berth in 2004 when the BCS standings worked in his favor, now had his comeuppance.
At the end, the team that had the most amount of legitimate grievance might've been Utah, which finished the season as the lone undefeated team. The Utes dominated Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, beating the Tide (31-17) worse than Florida did in the SEC title game (31-20). In the final AP poll, 16 of the 65 voters cast their ballots with Utah No. 1, but that wasn't enough to earn a split championship after Tim Tebow and Co. held off the turnover-prone Sooners in the BCS title game.
Final BCS Standings: 1. Oklahoma, 2. Florida, 3. Texas, 4. Alabama, 5. USC, 6. Utah, 7. Texas Tech.
Likely four-team playoff: Oklahoma vs. Utah; Florida vs. USC.
With preference for conference champions and that Utah had a better resume than fellow unbeaten Boise State, these four teams would've been the most solid picks, even without the benefit of hindsight.
Controversies
BCS standings as a tiebreaker: The BCS standings were created for the sole purpose of matching up the top two-ranked teams to play for the BCS title. Yet, by the mid-2000s, conferences began using the standings to break ties either for the conference title or within divisions. This misapplication had its worst consequences in 2008, when OU just nudged Texas—a team it had lost to—for a spot in the Big 12 title game and, ultimately, a spot in the BCS title game.
This misuse would continue, without being discouraged by the BCS brass, until the end of the BCS era. In fact, even conferences that had no part in the BCS tried to use it to break ties, leading to the comical Conference USA debacle in 2013.
Boise State snub: For the second time in the BCS era, Boise State went undefeated and was denied a BCS bowl berth, also the sixth time it finished with either zero or one loss and had to settle for a minor bowl.
The Broncos were ranked No. 9 in the final BCS standings, yet they weren't guaranteed a berth because another non-AQ champion, Utah, was ahead at No. 6. The Fiesta Bowl then bypassed Boise to take No. 10 Ohio State as an at-large, while both No. 12 Cincinnati (Big East) and No. 19 Virginia Tech (ACC) had automatic berths.
But this Boise State snub generated enough public outrage that, when the very scenario occurred again the next year, the Broncos were given their just due.
| Bowl | Score | Attendance | TV Rating |
| BCS Champ* | #2 Florida 24, #1 Oklahoma 14 | 78,468 | 15.8 |
| Rose Bowl | #3 USC 38, #8 Penn State 24 | 93,293 | 11.7 |
| Fiesta Bowl | #3 Texas 24, #10 Ohio State 21 | 72,047 | 10.4 |
| Sugar Bowl | #6 Utah 31, #4 Alabama 17 | 71,872 | 7.8 |
| Orange Bowl | #19 Va. Tech 20, #12 Cincinnati 7 | 73,602 | 5.4 |
Final analysis: With Florida's win over Oklahoma in the BCS title game, the "SEC-as-top-dog" perception reached new heights as the conference has now won three straight BCS championships. The on-field success helped to fuel the off-field brand building process that permanently granted the SEC a first-among-equals status for the remainder of the BCS era.
The SEC champion reached the BCS title game in each of the eight years between 2006-2013. And in seven of those eight seasons, an SEC team beat out another major conference champion that had the same number of losses for a spot in the championship game—including in 2011, when Alabama advanced to the all-SEC title matchup in spite of not winning its division.
The Tide lost back-to-back games to Florida and Utah to finish the 2008 season, but their dynasty was just on the verge of being unleashed.
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