Did the BCS work? Well, in its final season, it did. Like magic. For Auburn.
The Tigers' magical ride began with Miracle on the Plains when they miraculously defeated Georgia on a fourth-and-forever Hail Mary. It continued with the now epic Iron Bowl missed-kick-return. Then, after outlasting Missouri in a mind-boggling shootout in the SEC Championship Game, the Tigers got the final piece of good news before their bus even pulled out of Atlanta - Ohio State lost to Michigan State in the Big Ten title game.
So Auburn will be headed to Pasadena for the last-ever BCS Championship Game against No. 1 Florida State, which cruised past Duke to win the ACC title. It will be the Seminoles' fourth BCS title game appearance - but their first since playing in the first three BCS title games from 1998-2000.
With Auburn back in its second BCS title game in four years, the SEC will now have a chance to close out the BCS era with its eighth consecutive national championship. Incredibly, the state of Alabama will be represented in the BCS title game for the fifth straight season.
Projected final BCS standings:
1. Florida State, 2. Auburn, 3. Alabama, 4. Michigan State, 5. Stanford, 6. Baylor, 7. Ohio State, 8. South Carolina, 9. Missouri, 10. Clemson.
11. Oregon, 12. Oklahoma, 13. Oklahoma State, 14. Arizona State, 15. LSU, 16. Central Florida, 17. UCLA, 18. Wisconsin, 19. Louisville, 20. Northern Illinois.
21. Fresno State, 22. Georgia, 23. Texas A&M, 24. USC, 25. Duke.
Projected BCS bowl matchups:
BCS Championship: No. 1 Florida State (ACC) vs. No. 2 Auburn (SEC)
Rose Bowl: No. 4 Michigan State (Big Ten) vs. No. 5 Stanford (Pac-12)
Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Alabama (at-large) vs. No. 12 Oklahoma (at-large)
Orange Bowl: No. 7 Ohio State (at-large) vs. No. 10 Clemson (at-large)
Fiesta Bowl: No. 6 Baylor (Big 12) vs. No. 16 Central Florida (American)
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Showing posts with label BCS Projections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BCS Projections. Show all posts
Saturday, December 7, 2013
Sunday, December 1, 2013
Will Ohio State Get Jumped By SEC Champ?
Even before the latest BCS standings were released Sunday night, this burning question lit up Twitter and talk show phone lines alike: Will a one-loss SEC champion get past Ohio State in the final BCS standings without the Buckeyes losing in the Big Ten Championship Game?
The answer is, no - not at least without some sort of "conspiracy."
The Buckeyes ascended to No. 2 in the BCS standings after Alabama's dramatic and epic fall in the Iron Bowl. They have a solid, but not commanding, lead on No. 3 Auburn in the two polls and a firmer advantage in the computers. With a win over Michigan State next Saturday, Ohio State will maintain their No. 2 ranking in the polls, and that alone will be good enough to send it to Pasadena for the BCS title game.
Since the BCS tweaked its formula for the last time in 2004, every team that's finished either first or second in the two polls have played in the BCS title game, no matter what their computer rankings were. In five of the last six seasons, a team played in the BCS title game despite finishing third in the computers.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
The answer is, no - not at least without some sort of "conspiracy."
The Buckeyes ascended to No. 2 in the BCS standings after Alabama's dramatic and epic fall in the Iron Bowl. They have a solid, but not commanding, lead on No. 3 Auburn in the two polls and a firmer advantage in the computers. With a win over Michigan State next Saturday, Ohio State will maintain their No. 2 ranking in the polls, and that alone will be good enough to send it to Pasadena for the BCS title game.
Since the BCS tweaked its formula for the last time in 2004, every team that's finished either first or second in the two polls have played in the BCS title game, no matter what their computer rankings were. In five of the last six seasons, a team played in the BCS title game despite finishing third in the computers.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Saturday, November 30, 2013
Alabama Is Not ... Quite ... Dead ... Yet
When Chris Davis ran back a missed Alabama field goal from under his goalposts all the way to the other end zone, he did his part to end the Tide's two-year reign as BCS champions. When Missouri defeated Texas A&M later, it's now nearly official.
Nearly.
Incredibly, Alabama is not quite finished as a contender for the 2013 BCS championship game. The Tide are projected to drop to No. 4 in the next BCS standings and in need of a semi-miracle to make it to Pasadena. But that path is not entirely closed.
This is what needs to happen: Both Florida State and Ohio State will have to lose their respective conference championship games, while Baylor and Oklahoma State will also have to lose their regular-season finales to hand the Big 12 title to 3-loss Texas. If all that takes place, then 'Bama might edge Michigan State for a second all-SEC BCS final in three years.
Projected BCS Standings:
1. Florida State, 2. Ohio State, 3. Auburn, 4. Alabama, 5. Missouri, 6. Oklahoma State, 7. Stanford, 8. Baylor, 9. South Carolina, 10. Michigan State.
11. Arizona State, 12. Oregon, 13. Clemson, 14. Northern Illinois, 15. LSU, 16. UCF, 17. Oklahoma, 18. UCLA, 19. Louisville, 20. Duke.
21. Wisconsin, 22. Fresno State, 23. Cincinnati, 24. Georgia, 25. Texas.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Nearly.
Incredibly, Alabama is not quite finished as a contender for the 2013 BCS championship game. The Tide are projected to drop to No. 4 in the next BCS standings and in need of a semi-miracle to make it to Pasadena. But that path is not entirely closed.
This is what needs to happen: Both Florida State and Ohio State will have to lose their respective conference championship games, while Baylor and Oklahoma State will also have to lose their regular-season finales to hand the Big 12 title to 3-loss Texas. If all that takes place, then 'Bama might edge Michigan State for a second all-SEC BCS final in three years.
Projected BCS Standings:
1. Florida State, 2. Ohio State, 3. Auburn, 4. Alabama, 5. Missouri, 6. Oklahoma State, 7. Stanford, 8. Baylor, 9. South Carolina, 10. Michigan State.
11. Arizona State, 12. Oregon, 13. Clemson, 14. Northern Illinois, 15. LSU, 16. UCF, 17. Oklahoma, 18. UCLA, 19. Louisville, 20. Duke.
21. Wisconsin, 22. Fresno State, 23. Cincinnati, 24. Georgia, 25. Texas.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Tuesday, November 26, 2013
NIU vs. Fresno: BCS's Best Race in 2013
When the latest BCS standings were unveiled last Sunday, the biggest surprise didn't come anywhere near the top of the standings. Rather, it was the inexplicable jump by Northern Illinois, leapfrogging Fresno State for the first time since the official BCS standings were released more than a month ago.
To be sure, the Huskies didn't get any of their boost from the humans as they lost ground to the Bulldogs in both polls last week. But they made a quantum leap in the computer rankings, going from being ranked 12th the week before to seventh in the new standings.
That NIU made that big of a jump from a victory over Toledo—a solid MAC team but otherwise nothing special—is both surprising and alarming. Very rarely has there been that much of a gain in the computers by one team this late in the season, when computer rankings are less volatile. And most problematic is that this shift seems inexplicable.
To-date, Northern Illinois has played a schedule that's ranked 89th by Kenneth Massey (one of the six BCS computers) out of 125 FBS teams. That compares favorably to Fresno State's SoS of 108th, but not a schedule worthy of a top 10 ranking.
So how do you explain the inexplicable? You can't (that's why it's called "inexplicable").
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
To be sure, the Huskies didn't get any of their boost from the humans as they lost ground to the Bulldogs in both polls last week. But they made a quantum leap in the computer rankings, going from being ranked 12th the week before to seventh in the new standings.
That NIU made that big of a jump from a victory over Toledo—a solid MAC team but otherwise nothing special—is both surprising and alarming. Very rarely has there been that much of a gain in the computers by one team this late in the season, when computer rankings are less volatile. And most problematic is that this shift seems inexplicable.
To-date, Northern Illinois has played a schedule that's ranked 89th by Kenneth Massey (one of the six BCS computers) out of 125 FBS teams. That compares favorably to Fresno State's SoS of 108th, but not a schedule worthy of a top 10 ranking.
So how do you explain the inexplicable? You can't (that's why it's called "inexplicable").
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Sunday, November 24, 2013
Road to BCS Title Game for 9 Contenders
With just two weeks left in the 2013 regular season, the BCS title game matchup will be decided by a series of elimination games. Given the opponents and circumstances with these games, it's reasonable to deduce that at this point, only the three undefeated and up to six other one-loss BCS conference teams are still in the hunt.
So, in order of probability, these are the nine teams and what they must do to reach the BCS championship game (rankings in the latest BCS standings):
No. 2 Florida State (90%) - The Seminoles will be facing a toothless Florida team in disarray at the Swamp, and then the Coastal Division winner (Duke or Virginia Tech, most likely) in the ACC championship game. Even without quarterback Jameis Winston, whose legal status is up in the air, FSU will be double-digit favorites in both games. And if he does play, Winston has shown a Kobe-esque focus as he's performed even better with all the distractions.
No. 1 Alabama (75%) - Of the three undefeated teams, the two-time defending champion faces the toughest road to a third straight BCS title-game appearance. The Tide will have to win the Iron Bowl at one-loss Auburn and then defeat either Missouri or South Carolina in the SEC title game. Unlike in the past two seasons, there is no scenario that exists that would allow Alabama to lose one of those games and still back-door its way into the title game.
No. 3 Ohio State (18%) - The Buckeyes should have no trouble with a fast fading Michigan team, even at the Big House. A one-loss Michigan State will pose problems in the Big Ten title game and that's really the only game they'd be in danger of losing. But even if it goes 25-0 under Urban Meyer over two seasons, Ohio State will miss out on the BCS title game again without an Alabama or FSU loss. On the other hand, it will not be in danger of being jumped by any one-loss team.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
So, in order of probability, these are the nine teams and what they must do to reach the BCS championship game (rankings in the latest BCS standings):
No. 2 Florida State (90%) - The Seminoles will be facing a toothless Florida team in disarray at the Swamp, and then the Coastal Division winner (Duke or Virginia Tech, most likely) in the ACC championship game. Even without quarterback Jameis Winston, whose legal status is up in the air, FSU will be double-digit favorites in both games. And if he does play, Winston has shown a Kobe-esque focus as he's performed even better with all the distractions.
No. 1 Alabama (75%) - Of the three undefeated teams, the two-time defending champion faces the toughest road to a third straight BCS title-game appearance. The Tide will have to win the Iron Bowl at one-loss Auburn and then defeat either Missouri or South Carolina in the SEC title game. Unlike in the past two seasons, there is no scenario that exists that would allow Alabama to lose one of those games and still back-door its way into the title game.
No. 3 Ohio State (18%) - The Buckeyes should have no trouble with a fast fading Michigan team, even at the Big House. A one-loss Michigan State will pose problems in the Big Ten title game and that's really the only game they'd be in danger of losing. But even if it goes 25-0 under Urban Meyer over two seasons, Ohio State will miss out on the BCS title game again without an Alabama or FSU loss. On the other hand, it will not be in danger of being jumped by any one-loss team.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Saturday, November 23, 2013
Lots of Tigers Jockeying for BCS Position
And then there are three.
As another undefeated team bites the dust—this time it's Baylor getting blown out by Oklahoma State, 49-17—the BCS title game picture actually is becoming more and less clear at the same time. More clear because without question No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Florida State will face each other if they both win out. Less clear because if either team should lose, it can potentially bring a one-loss team back into the picture.
For now, Ohio State is projected to be a solid No. 3 in the next BCS standings and it's extremely unlikely that the Buckeyes will fall behind any one-loss team, even if that's a one-loss SEC champion Auburn or Missouri. They will be getting a major boost if Michigan State can defeat Minnesota next week and arrive at the Big Ten title game at 11-1 and ranked in the top 10.
But that's where the intrigue comes in. Michigan State has the potential to defeat Ohio State and if Alabama and/or FSU should stumble in the next two weeks, what then?
Projected BCS Standings:
1. Alabama, 2. Florida State, 3. Ohio State, 4. Auburn, 5. Clemson, 6. Missouri, 7. Oklahoma State, 8. Stanford, 9. South Carolina, 10. Michigan State.
11. Baylor, 12. Oregon, 13. Arizona State, 14. Wisconsin, 15. LSU, 16. Fresno State, 17. Northern Illinois, 18. Central Florida, 19. Louisville, 20. Oklahoma.
21. Texas A&M, 22. USC, 23. Duke, 24. UCLA, 25. Georgia.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
As another undefeated team bites the dust—this time it's Baylor getting blown out by Oklahoma State, 49-17—the BCS title game picture actually is becoming more and less clear at the same time. More clear because without question No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Florida State will face each other if they both win out. Less clear because if either team should lose, it can potentially bring a one-loss team back into the picture.
For now, Ohio State is projected to be a solid No. 3 in the next BCS standings and it's extremely unlikely that the Buckeyes will fall behind any one-loss team, even if that's a one-loss SEC champion Auburn or Missouri. They will be getting a major boost if Michigan State can defeat Minnesota next week and arrive at the Big Ten title game at 11-1 and ranked in the top 10.
But that's where the intrigue comes in. Michigan State has the potential to defeat Ohio State and if Alabama and/or FSU should stumble in the next two weeks, what then?
Projected BCS Standings:
1. Alabama, 2. Florida State, 3. Ohio State, 4. Auburn, 5. Clemson, 6. Missouri, 7. Oklahoma State, 8. Stanford, 9. South Carolina, 10. Michigan State.
11. Baylor, 12. Oregon, 13. Arizona State, 14. Wisconsin, 15. LSU, 16. Fresno State, 17. Northern Illinois, 18. Central Florida, 19. Louisville, 20. Oklahoma.
21. Texas A&M, 22. USC, 23. Duke, 24. UCLA, 25. Georgia.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Monday, November 18, 2013
Will Ohio State's Lead Over Baylor Last?
What does a lead of .0013 in the BCS standings mean?
That's the margin by which Ohio State kept the No. 3 spot in the latest BCS standings over Baylor—defying our projections, but just barely. As the 2013 regular season heads toward its final three weeks, the gaps between top teams will be closely scrutinized as they take on more meaning.
Ohio State's lead would've vanished had just three coaches (out of 62) switched their votes between OSU and Baylor, or six Harris voters (out of 105). In combination, had just four or five people (out of 167) changed their minds then the Bears would've been ahead of the Buckeyes.
Or, had the AP poll been part of the BCS instead of either the Coaches or Harris polls, Baylor would've been comfortably ahead at No. 3. The Bears jumped OSU in the AP poll after a come-from-behind 63-34 win over Texas Tech while the Buckeyes needed late scores to pull away from Illinois, 60-35.
It's just about certain that Baylor will be the No. 3 team in the next BCS standings if it can defeat No. 10 Oklahoma State next Saturday. The Bears will gain enough in the computers (a mere one-place improvement in one computer is all they need) to make up the .0013 deficit, but most likely they'll also pick up a few votes by defeating a Top 10 team.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
That's the margin by which Ohio State kept the No. 3 spot in the latest BCS standings over Baylor—defying our projections, but just barely. As the 2013 regular season heads toward its final three weeks, the gaps between top teams will be closely scrutinized as they take on more meaning.
Ohio State's lead would've vanished had just three coaches (out of 62) switched their votes between OSU and Baylor, or six Harris voters (out of 105). In combination, had just four or five people (out of 167) changed their minds then the Bears would've been ahead of the Buckeyes.
Or, had the AP poll been part of the BCS instead of either the Coaches or Harris polls, Baylor would've been comfortably ahead at No. 3. The Bears jumped OSU in the AP poll after a come-from-behind 63-34 win over Texas Tech while the Buckeyes needed late scores to pull away from Illinois, 60-35.
It's just about certain that Baylor will be the No. 3 team in the next BCS standings if it can defeat No. 10 Oklahoma State next Saturday. The Bears will gain enough in the computers (a mere one-place improvement in one computer is all they need) to make up the .0013 deficit, but most likely they'll also pick up a few votes by defeating a Top 10 team.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Saturday, November 16, 2013
Baylor to Jump Ohio State for No. 3
Ohio State's quest for a shot at the BCS title just got a little more difficult.
After a lackluster victory over lowly Illinois, in which the Buckeyes led by just 12 at one point in the fourth quarter, they will be passed by surging Baylor in the upcoming BCS standings. The Bears pulled away from Texas Tech in the second half, winning 63-34 in a game played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.
As a result, the Bears will gain enough in both the polls and computers to leapfrog the Buckeyes for the No. 3 spot. Alabama and Florida State will keep their tight grip on the top two spots, as both won without much of a struggle.
With Stanford's upset loss to USC, Oregon will be the highest-ranked one-loss team after regaining control of the Pac-12 North race. The Ducks should check in at No. 5, ahead of the other one-loss teams Clemson, Auburn and Missouri.
Projected BCS standings:
1. Alabama, 2. Florida State, 3. Baylor, 4. Ohio State, 5. Oregon, 6. Clemson, 7. Auburn, 8. Missouri, 9. Stanford, 10. Texas A&M.
11. South Carolina, 12. Oklahoma State, 13. UCLA, 14. Fresno State, 15. Northern Illinois, 16. Michigan State, 17. Central Florida, 18. Oklahoma, 19. Arizona State, 20. Louisville.
21. LSU, 22. Wisconsin, 23. Ole Miss, 24. Minnesota, 25. USC.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
After a lackluster victory over lowly Illinois, in which the Buckeyes led by just 12 at one point in the fourth quarter, they will be passed by surging Baylor in the upcoming BCS standings. The Bears pulled away from Texas Tech in the second half, winning 63-34 in a game played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.
As a result, the Bears will gain enough in both the polls and computers to leapfrog the Buckeyes for the No. 3 spot. Alabama and Florida State will keep their tight grip on the top two spots, as both won without much of a struggle.
With Stanford's upset loss to USC, Oregon will be the highest-ranked one-loss team after regaining control of the Pac-12 North race. The Ducks should check in at No. 5, ahead of the other one-loss teams Clemson, Auburn and Missouri.
Projected BCS standings:
1. Alabama, 2. Florida State, 3. Baylor, 4. Ohio State, 5. Oregon, 6. Clemson, 7. Auburn, 8. Missouri, 9. Stanford, 10. Texas A&M.
11. South Carolina, 12. Oklahoma State, 13. UCLA, 14. Fresno State, 15. Northern Illinois, 16. Michigan State, 17. Central Florida, 18. Oklahoma, 19. Arizona State, 20. Louisville.
21. LSU, 22. Wisconsin, 23. Ole Miss, 24. Minnesota, 25. USC.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Sunday, November 10, 2013
Three-Way BCS Race for No. 3
The race is on ... for No. 3.
After Oregon's loss to Stanford last Thursday, the ranks of major unbeatens shrunk to just four. And since Alabama and Florida State have a stranglehold on the top two spots in the latest BCS standings—they have all the No. 1 votes as well as either the first or second spots in all six computers—there is no chance for anyone else to catch up if they keep winning.
But if they slip up, then it gets interesting.
At the moment, Ohio State is maintaining its grip on the third spot. Despite the constant Big Ten-bashing by the pundits, it's actually very unlikely that the Buckeyes would surrender their position without losing a game. And with games against Illinois, Indiana and a fast-fading Michigan remaining on its regular-season schedule, Ohio State should get to the Big Ten Championship Game without a loss.
That's where OSU could need a little bit of help. If Michigan State defeats Nebraska next week and arrives at the B1G title game at 11-1, it'll likely be ranked in the top 10 and much-improved computer rankings. A Buckeyes victory over the Spartans then would just about cement their shot at the BCS title game if either Alabama or Florida State loses.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
After Oregon's loss to Stanford last Thursday, the ranks of major unbeatens shrunk to just four. And since Alabama and Florida State have a stranglehold on the top two spots in the latest BCS standings—they have all the No. 1 votes as well as either the first or second spots in all six computers—there is no chance for anyone else to catch up if they keep winning.
But if they slip up, then it gets interesting.
At the moment, Ohio State is maintaining its grip on the third spot. Despite the constant Big Ten-bashing by the pundits, it's actually very unlikely that the Buckeyes would surrender their position without losing a game. And with games against Illinois, Indiana and a fast-fading Michigan remaining on its regular-season schedule, Ohio State should get to the Big Ten Championship Game without a loss.
That's where OSU could need a little bit of help. If Michigan State defeats Nebraska next week and arrives at the B1G title game at 11-1, it'll likely be ranked in the top 10 and much-improved computer rankings. A Buckeyes victory over the Spartans then would just about cement their shot at the BCS title game if either Alabama or Florida State loses.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Saturday, November 9, 2013
Alabama-Florida State Looks Pretty Inevitable
It certainly looks like Alabama-Florida State now.
After Stanford's stunning upset (more in scope than the act) of Oregon on Thursday night, the BCS picture began to emerge with some clarity. After Alabama's convincing victory over LSU on Saturday, it looks like a Crimson Tide-Seminoles showdown in Pasadena is all but becoming inevitable.
Granted, each team will still have three regular-season games and a conference championship game remaining, but they'll be favored by double digits in each game. In the BCS standings coming out on Sunday, Alabama and FSU will open a wide gap on the No. 3 team and everybody else below that.
Ohio State is expected to move into the No. 3 spot, though its hold on that position will be tenuous. Stanford is projected to emerge ahead of Baylor at No. 4, despite being ranked lower in the polls.
The rankings from 3-5 should remain fluid for the remainder of the season, with Ohio State having the best chance at staying unbeaten. But thanks to the weakness of the Big Ten, the Buckeyes will not automatically slide into the top spot should either Alabama or FSU slip up.
Projected BCS Standings:
1. Alabama, 2. Florida State, 3. Ohio State, 4. Stanford, 5. Baylor, 6. Oregon, 7. Clemson, 8. Missouri, 9. Auburn, 10. South Carolina.
11. Oklahoma State, 12. Texas A&M, 13. Oklahoma, 14. Michigan State, 15. Fresno State, 16. UCLA, 17. Louisville, 18. Northern Illinois, 19. Central Florida, 20. Miami (Fla.).
21. Arizona State, 22. LSU, 23. Georgia, 24. Wisconsin, 25. Texas.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
After Stanford's stunning upset (more in scope than the act) of Oregon on Thursday night, the BCS picture began to emerge with some clarity. After Alabama's convincing victory over LSU on Saturday, it looks like a Crimson Tide-Seminoles showdown in Pasadena is all but becoming inevitable.
Granted, each team will still have three regular-season games and a conference championship game remaining, but they'll be favored by double digits in each game. In the BCS standings coming out on Sunday, Alabama and FSU will open a wide gap on the No. 3 team and everybody else below that.
Ohio State is expected to move into the No. 3 spot, though its hold on that position will be tenuous. Stanford is projected to emerge ahead of Baylor at No. 4, despite being ranked lower in the polls.
The rankings from 3-5 should remain fluid for the remainder of the season, with Ohio State having the best chance at staying unbeaten. But thanks to the weakness of the Big Ten, the Buckeyes will not automatically slide into the top spot should either Alabama or FSU slip up.
Projected BCS Standings:
1. Alabama, 2. Florida State, 3. Ohio State, 4. Stanford, 5. Baylor, 6. Oregon, 7. Clemson, 8. Missouri, 9. Auburn, 10. South Carolina.
11. Oklahoma State, 12. Texas A&M, 13. Oklahoma, 14. Michigan State, 15. Fresno State, 16. UCLA, 17. Louisville, 18. Northern Illinois, 19. Central Florida, 20. Miami (Fla.).
21. Arizona State, 22. LSU, 23. Georgia, 24. Wisconsin, 25. Texas.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Thursday, November 7, 2013
Big Thursday Night Shakes Up BCS
For the third time in five years, Stanford stunned an Oregon team with national championship aspirations. And for the second consecutive year, the Cardinal might have knocked the Ducks out of a Rose Bowl berth as well.
Stanford's upset victory, coupled with Baylor's pasting of Oklahoma in a pair of Thursday night top-10 showdowns, sent a shock wave through the top of the BCS even before the weekend begins. And they might have to cancel classes in Tallahassee and Columbus on Friday.
This much is clear: Alabama and Florida State, atop the BCS standings as of last week, will control their respective destinies. If either team wins out, it'll be playing in Pasadena on Jan. 6. Then after that, it gets a bit messy.
Ohio State is expected to move up to No. 3, but it can't comfortably count on being there as if it's in the on-deck circle, waiting for an Alabama or FSU loss to move into the BCS title game. There is a possibility that the Buckeyes might get jumped by Baylor, though it's a small one.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Stanford's upset victory, coupled with Baylor's pasting of Oklahoma in a pair of Thursday night top-10 showdowns, sent a shock wave through the top of the BCS even before the weekend begins. And they might have to cancel classes in Tallahassee and Columbus on Friday.
This much is clear: Alabama and Florida State, atop the BCS standings as of last week, will control their respective destinies. If either team wins out, it'll be playing in Pasadena on Jan. 6. Then after that, it gets a bit messy.
Ohio State is expected to move up to No. 3, but it can't comfortably count on being there as if it's in the on-deck circle, waiting for an Alabama or FSU loss to move into the BCS title game. There is a possibility that the Buckeyes might get jumped by Baylor, though it's a small one.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Sunday, November 3, 2013
Math Not There for FSU to Get By Oregon
For a third straight week, the No. 2 ranking in the BCS standings changes hands, with Florida State narrowly edging Oregon for the spot behind Alabama.
But just like two weeks ago, the Seminoles' stay at No. 2 will be short-lived—if Oregon wins its Thursday night showdown against No. 5 Stanford. And should the Ducks stay unbeaten, they will be pulling away from the Seminoles in the standings the rest of the season, no matter what else happens.
The math just isn't there for Florida State.
FSU has now defeated two unbeaten top 10 teams in three weeks, and gained possibly everything it could from the voters and the computers. The Seminoles are the top-ranked team by the computers this week, with five No. 1s out of the six BCS computers. They also cut into the vote shares of Alabama and Oregon in both polls, even picking up five first-place votes (where they had none last week).
Yet, even with all those gains, Florida State will not get into the BCS title game without either an Alabama or an Oregon loss. Here's the story behind the math:
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
But just like two weeks ago, the Seminoles' stay at No. 2 will be short-lived—if Oregon wins its Thursday night showdown against No. 5 Stanford. And should the Ducks stay unbeaten, they will be pulling away from the Seminoles in the standings the rest of the season, no matter what else happens.
The math just isn't there for Florida State.
FSU has now defeated two unbeaten top 10 teams in three weeks, and gained possibly everything it could from the voters and the computers. The Seminoles are the top-ranked team by the computers this week, with five No. 1s out of the six BCS computers. They also cut into the vote shares of Alabama and Oregon in both polls, even picking up five first-place votes (where they had none last week).
Yet, even with all those gains, Florida State will not get into the BCS title game without either an Alabama or an Oregon loss. Here's the story behind the math:
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Saturday, November 2, 2013
FSU Closing In on Oregon, But It'll Be Short-Lived
Half of the top 10 teams in last week's BCS standings were idle this week, and other than Texas Tech losing in a mild upset, it was a weekend of mostly ho-hum affairs.
(Thank you, Northwestern, for making a complete hash out of your last defensive stand so we could have our YouTube and gif fix for the day, though.)
Florida State won the day's most high-profile showdown, a 41-14 victory over No. 7 Miami. But the Seminoles were favored by three touchdowns so even an impressive win over their intrastate rival might not be enough for them to get into the all-important top two spots in the next BCS standings.
The Noles will close the gap on Oregon and make it very close for the No. 2 spot, thanks to the boost they'll get from the computers. Florida State probably will check in at No. 1 in five of the six BCS computers, with Richard Billingsley the exception. The Noles will need to sway about a dozen voters or so in the two polls to pull ahead of the Ducks for the week.
But even if they move into No. 2 in the next standings, they'll stay there for exactly one week if both Oregon and Alabama win their upcoming showdowns next week. Should the Tide and Ducks go on to beat LSU and Stanford, respectively, and run the table after that, FSU will have reached its high-water mark as it won't have another game that will provide much boost the rest of the season, and that includes the ACC Championship Game.
So with the exception of Miami, the projected BCS standings will look very similar to last week's:
Projected BCS Standings:
1. Alabama, 2. Oregon, 3. Florida State, 4. Ohio State, 5. Stanford, 6. Baylor, 7. Clemson, 8. Missouri, 9. Oklahoma, 10. Auburn.
11. Miami (Fla.), 12. LSU, 13. South Carolina, 14. Texas A&M, 15. Oklahoma State, 16. Fresno State, 17. Northern Illinois, 18. UCLA, 19. Louisville, 20. Michigan State.
21. Central Florida, 22. Texas Tech, 23. Notre Dame, 24. Arizona State, 25. Wisconsin.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
(Thank you, Northwestern, for making a complete hash out of your last defensive stand so we could have our YouTube and gif fix for the day, though.)
Florida State won the day's most high-profile showdown, a 41-14 victory over No. 7 Miami. But the Seminoles were favored by three touchdowns so even an impressive win over their intrastate rival might not be enough for them to get into the all-important top two spots in the next BCS standings.
The Noles will close the gap on Oregon and make it very close for the No. 2 spot, thanks to the boost they'll get from the computers. Florida State probably will check in at No. 1 in five of the six BCS computers, with Richard Billingsley the exception. The Noles will need to sway about a dozen voters or so in the two polls to pull ahead of the Ducks for the week.
But even if they move into No. 2 in the next standings, they'll stay there for exactly one week if both Oregon and Alabama win their upcoming showdowns next week. Should the Tide and Ducks go on to beat LSU and Stanford, respectively, and run the table after that, FSU will have reached its high-water mark as it won't have another game that will provide much boost the rest of the season, and that includes the ACC Championship Game.
So with the exception of Miami, the projected BCS standings will look very similar to last week's:
Projected BCS Standings:
1. Alabama, 2. Oregon, 3. Florida State, 4. Ohio State, 5. Stanford, 6. Baylor, 7. Clemson, 8. Missouri, 9. Oklahoma, 10. Auburn.
11. Miami (Fla.), 12. LSU, 13. South Carolina, 14. Texas A&M, 15. Oklahoma State, 16. Fresno State, 17. Northern Illinois, 18. UCLA, 19. Louisville, 20. Michigan State.
21. Central Florida, 22. Texas Tech, 23. Notre Dame, 24. Arizona State, 25. Wisconsin.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Saturday, October 26, 2013
Oregon Jumps Florida State for No. 2 Spot
Missouri's double-overtime loss to South Carolina reduced the ranks of BCS contenders by one, and to some extent it solidified the pecking order for the teams vying for a shot at the national championship.
With Texas Tech also losing, there are now eight undefeated teams—and just six from BCS conferences. Only the ACC still has multiple unbeaten teams, but that will change next week when Florida State hosts Miami in the biggest game in this rivalry since 2000, when the Hurricanes were still in the Big East.
Florida State will come into the game ranked No. 3 in the BCS standings, having ceded the second spot to Oregon based on our projections. Thanks to a 42-14 victory over UCLA, the Ducks will gain enough in the computer rankings to overtake the Seminoles but won't surpass No. 1 Alabama.
Projected BCS standings:
1. Alabama, 2. Oregon, 3. Florida State, 4. Ohio State, 5. Stanford, 6. Baylor, 7. Miami (Fla.), 8. Clemson, 9. Missouri, 10. Oklahoma.
11. Auburn, 12. LSU, 13. Texas Tech, 14. Texas A&M, 15. Northern Illinois, 16. South Carolina, 17. UCLA, 18. Fresno State, 19. Oklahoma State, 20. Louisville.
Others: Michigan, Central Florida, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Michigan State.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
With Texas Tech also losing, there are now eight undefeated teams—and just six from BCS conferences. Only the ACC still has multiple unbeaten teams, but that will change next week when Florida State hosts Miami in the biggest game in this rivalry since 2000, when the Hurricanes were still in the Big East.
Florida State will come into the game ranked No. 3 in the BCS standings, having ceded the second spot to Oregon based on our projections. Thanks to a 42-14 victory over UCLA, the Ducks will gain enough in the computer rankings to overtake the Seminoles but won't surpass No. 1 Alabama.
Projected BCS standings:
1. Alabama, 2. Oregon, 3. Florida State, 4. Ohio State, 5. Stanford, 6. Baylor, 7. Miami (Fla.), 8. Clemson, 9. Missouri, 10. Oklahoma.
11. Auburn, 12. LSU, 13. Texas Tech, 14. Texas A&M, 15. Northern Illinois, 16. South Carolina, 17. UCLA, 18. Fresno State, 19. Oklahoma State, 20. Louisville.
Others: Michigan, Central Florida, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Michigan State.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Saturday, October 19, 2013
Florida State Noses By Oregon for No. 2
On the eve of the release of the season's first official BCS standings, upsets ruled the day, as half of the Top 10 teams in last week's simulated BCS standings went down in defeat. The trend, in fact, started Friday night, when Central Florida dumped Louisville.
Five ranked SEC teams also lost, including Top 10 teams LSU and Texas A&M, against conference foes. This fashions an entirely new Top 10, with several unbeaten teams finally breaking through into the top of the standings. All told, there are just 10 unbeaten teams remaining in FBS after Saturday.
But the most surprising development may be Florida State's ascension to No. 2, narrowly edging Oregon. The Seminoles scored an impressive victory at Clemson, which was ranked No. 3 last week. By picking up a considerable number of vote shares, as well as the No. 1 ranking in the computers, FSU should have a razor-thin margin over the Ducks.
Projected BCS Standings:
1. Alabama, 2. Florida State, 3. Oregon, 4. Ohio State, 5. Missouri, 6. Baylor, 7. Stanford, 8. Clemson, 9. Miami (Fla.), 10. UCLA.
11. LSU, 12. Texas A&M, 13. Texas Tech, 14. South Carolina, 15. Oklahoma, 16. Auburn, 17. Virginia Tech, 18. Northern Illinois, 19. Louisville, 20. Fresno State.
Others: Oklahoma State, Georgia, Nebraska, Oregon State, Michigan.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Five ranked SEC teams also lost, including Top 10 teams LSU and Texas A&M, against conference foes. This fashions an entirely new Top 10, with several unbeaten teams finally breaking through into the top of the standings. All told, there are just 10 unbeaten teams remaining in FBS after Saturday.
But the most surprising development may be Florida State's ascension to No. 2, narrowly edging Oregon. The Seminoles scored an impressive victory at Clemson, which was ranked No. 3 last week. By picking up a considerable number of vote shares, as well as the No. 1 ranking in the computers, FSU should have a razor-thin margin over the Ducks.
Projected BCS Standings:
1. Alabama, 2. Florida State, 3. Oregon, 4. Ohio State, 5. Missouri, 6. Baylor, 7. Stanford, 8. Clemson, 9. Miami (Fla.), 10. UCLA.
11. LSU, 12. Texas A&M, 13. Texas Tech, 14. South Carolina, 15. Oklahoma, 16. Auburn, 17. Virginia Tech, 18. Northern Illinois, 19. Louisville, 20. Fresno State.
Others: Oklahoma State, Georgia, Nebraska, Oregon State, Michigan.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Sunday, October 13, 2013
Upsets Shape Up BCS Landscape
Three upsets on Saturday significantly shook up the BCS landscape, making the initial release of the standings next Sunday perhaps less intriguing. Now there's a clear separation of the top five teams from the rest of the pack, and two of them are scheduled for a titanic showdown next Saturday.
In the final simulated BCS standings, the top five teams are, in order: Alabama, Oregon, Clemson, Florida State and Ohio State. After that, there's a big dropoff to No. 6 LSU and the other assortment of one-loss and lesser unbeaten teams. (See BCS Guru for complete Week 7 simulated BCS standings, with an explanation of methodology below.)
The winner of next Saturday's Clemson-Florida State game will emerge as the primary challenger to the presumed Alabama-Oregon pairing, with Ohio State another slot behind. The way the polls and computer rankings are shaping up, the Tide and Ducks will meet in Pasadena on Jan. 6 this season as long as they both remain unbeaten—no matter what happens with the other teams.
Ohio State most likely will play in the BCS title game provided that there are no two unbeaten teams from the SEC, Pac-12 or ACC. The Buckeyes probably won't be jumped by a one-loss team, except for one—if LSU beats Alabama and Texas A&M to win the SEC West and then the conference championship, there is a possibility the Tigers could finish ahead of an unbeaten Buckeyes team, though a remote one.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
In the final simulated BCS standings, the top five teams are, in order: Alabama, Oregon, Clemson, Florida State and Ohio State. After that, there's a big dropoff to No. 6 LSU and the other assortment of one-loss and lesser unbeaten teams. (See BCS Guru for complete Week 7 simulated BCS standings, with an explanation of methodology below.)
The winner of next Saturday's Clemson-Florida State game will emerge as the primary challenger to the presumed Alabama-Oregon pairing, with Ohio State another slot behind. The way the polls and computer rankings are shaping up, the Tide and Ducks will meet in Pasadena on Jan. 6 this season as long as they both remain unbeaten—no matter what happens with the other teams.
Ohio State most likely will play in the BCS title game provided that there are no two unbeaten teams from the SEC, Pac-12 or ACC. The Buckeyes probably won't be jumped by a one-loss team, except for one—if LSU beats Alabama and Texas A&M to win the SEC West and then the conference championship, there is a possibility the Tigers could finish ahead of an unbeaten Buckeyes team, though a remote one.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Monday, October 7, 2013
Clemson or Oregon? Who's Got the Inside Track?
Oregon was held to fewer than 60 points by Colorado in a 57-16 victory Saturday night. As a result, the Ducks were severely punished for that indiscretion and dropped to No. 3 in the latest simulated BCS standings.
Oregon fell behind Clemson, which gained just enough vote shares to jump into the slot behind Alabama. The Ducks' computer ratings took a hit after beating lightly-regarded Colorado, as margin of victory has no bearing on the BCS computers.
Florida State also moved up, to No. 5, after destroying previously-ranked Maryland, leapfrogging Ohio State, which also defeated a ranked team in Northwestern, though in less impressive fashion.
This sets up a gargantuan matchup between Clemson and Florida State in two weeks (assuming no #Clemsoning takes place next week against Boston College, while the 'Noles have a bye week), on the eve of the release of this year's initial BCS standings. But before we get to that, a more important question needs to be asked:
Between Clemson and Oregon, if both teams run the table and win their respective conference championships, which is more likely to finish No. 2 behind Alabama?
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Oregon fell behind Clemson, which gained just enough vote shares to jump into the slot behind Alabama. The Ducks' computer ratings took a hit after beating lightly-regarded Colorado, as margin of victory has no bearing on the BCS computers.
Florida State also moved up, to No. 5, after destroying previously-ranked Maryland, leapfrogging Ohio State, which also defeated a ranked team in Northwestern, though in less impressive fashion.
This sets up a gargantuan matchup between Clemson and Florida State in two weeks (assuming no #Clemsoning takes place next week against Boston College, while the 'Noles have a bye week), on the eve of the release of this year's initial BCS standings. But before we get to that, a more important question needs to be asked:
Between Clemson and Oregon, if both teams run the table and win their respective conference championships, which is more likely to finish No. 2 behind Alabama?
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Sunday, August 18, 2013
The Last Days of BCS
For college football, this is 1991. The Berlin Wall has fallen. The Soviet Union is scheduled to be dissolved. There is a fin de siecle feel to things. No matter what happens, we know for certain that the much-maligned BCS will be consigned to the ash heap of history at the end of the season.
Few will mourn the passing of the BCS while we leap into a new, unknown age. But some day, we might look back to the BCS era with some fondness, reminiscing about when there was so much transparency to how things are settled. Under the College Football Playoff, there will be no BCS standings, no formulas, no publicly available polls and computer rankings to dissect. The fate of the playoff aspirants will be decided in a smoke-filled -free conference room on the last day of the regular season.
So while we can - and for the last time - we have put together the simulated preseason BCS standings. The method is the same as before: We used the AP poll to stand in for the Harris poll and the median rankings of 24 computer ratings to replace the six "official" computer rankings to produce a facsimile of what the BCS standings would look like 10 days before the season's first kickoff.
Even though computer rankings tend to be very volatile early in the season, you can already see some patterns emerging. Three of the six official BCS computers will have a preseason ranking, with Sagarin and Massey basing theirs on the expected strength of schedule and outcome while Billingsley basing his entirely on the rankings at the close of the previous season.
The simulated standings do not closely conform to the two polls, even though they account for two-thirds of the standings and are nearly identical. We can clearly forecast that one top team will have a lot of trouble with the computers: Louisville.
(FULL ARTICLE @ SB NATION)
Few will mourn the passing of the BCS while we leap into a new, unknown age. But some day, we might look back to the BCS era with some fondness, reminiscing about when there was so much transparency to how things are settled. Under the College Football Playoff, there will be no BCS standings, no formulas, no publicly available polls and computer rankings to dissect. The fate of the playoff aspirants will be decided in a smoke-
So while we can - and for the last time - we have put together the simulated preseason BCS standings. The method is the same as before: We used the AP poll to stand in for the Harris poll and the median rankings of 24 computer ratings to replace the six "official" computer rankings to produce a facsimile of what the BCS standings would look like 10 days before the season's first kickoff.
Even though computer rankings tend to be very volatile early in the season, you can already see some patterns emerging. Three of the six official BCS computers will have a preseason ranking, with Sagarin and Massey basing theirs on the expected strength of schedule and outcome while Billingsley basing his entirely on the rankings at the close of the previous season.
The simulated standings do not closely conform to the two polls, even though they account for two-thirds of the standings and are nearly identical. We can clearly forecast that one top team will have a lot of trouble with the computers: Louisville.
(FULL ARTICLE @ SB NATION)
Saturday, December 1, 2012
Just a Bit Short for Northern Illinois
It came down to one play in the SEC championship game that decided who got to play Notre Dame in the BCS championship game. As for the last BCS bowl berth, it will come down to a few votes.
In the least surprising BCS decision in some time, Alabama earned a spot in the BCS title game after winning a de facto playoff semifinal against Georgia. It'll be the Tide's second consecutive appearance in the championship game and their third in four years. Nick Saban also will be going for a record fourth BCS title, to go with his two previous at Alabama and one at LSU.
But what holds the most intrigue for Sunday's revelation of the final BCS standings is not who's No. 1 or No. 2, but who's No. 16. If MAC champion Northern Illinois somehow squeezes into that spot, it will earn an automatic BCS berth and with it, a near $10 million windfall for the conference. In that case, the Huskies will have to do it without coach Dave Doeren, who earlier Saturday accepted a job to go to N.C. State.
But based on the Guru's projections, Northern Illinois will fall tantalizingly short.
The Huskies made it close because the Huskers played a stinker of a game, falling to 7-5 Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship game by the shocking score of 70-31. The voters are expected to punish Nebraska for the embarrassing loss, and to what extend will determine whether Northern Illinois gets to the magic No. 16 slot or not.
Since we do think the Huskies will fall just a bit short, the BCS bowl picture is rather straightforward:
BCS Bowl Projections:
BCS championship: Notre Dame vs. Alabama
Rose Bowl: Stanford vs. Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl: Oregon vs. Kansas State
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Oklahoma
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. Louisville
(Complete Bowl Projections)
Final BCS projections:
1. Notre Dame, 2. Alabama, 3. Florida, 4. Oregon, 5. Georgia, 6. Kansas State, 7. LSU, 8. Stanford, 9. Texas A&M, 10. South Carolina, 11. Oklahoma, 12. Oregon State, 13. Clemson, 14. Florida State, 15. UCLA, 16. Nebraska, 17. Northern Illinois, 18. Michigan, 19. Boise State, 20. Northwestern.
In the least surprising BCS decision in some time, Alabama earned a spot in the BCS title game after winning a de facto playoff semifinal against Georgia. It'll be the Tide's second consecutive appearance in the championship game and their third in four years. Nick Saban also will be going for a record fourth BCS title, to go with his two previous at Alabama and one at LSU.
But what holds the most intrigue for Sunday's revelation of the final BCS standings is not who's No. 1 or No. 2, but who's No. 16. If MAC champion Northern Illinois somehow squeezes into that spot, it will earn an automatic BCS berth and with it, a near $10 million windfall for the conference. In that case, the Huskies will have to do it without coach Dave Doeren, who earlier Saturday accepted a job to go to N.C. State.
But based on the Guru's projections, Northern Illinois will fall tantalizingly short.
The Huskies made it close because the Huskers played a stinker of a game, falling to 7-5 Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship game by the shocking score of 70-31. The voters are expected to punish Nebraska for the embarrassing loss, and to what extend will determine whether Northern Illinois gets to the magic No. 16 slot or not.
Since we do think the Huskies will fall just a bit short, the BCS bowl picture is rather straightforward:
BCS Bowl Projections:
BCS championship: Notre Dame vs. Alabama
Rose Bowl: Stanford vs. Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl: Oregon vs. Kansas State
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Oklahoma
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. Louisville
(Complete Bowl Projections)
Final BCS projections:
1. Notre Dame, 2. Alabama, 3. Florida, 4. Oregon, 5. Georgia, 6. Kansas State, 7. LSU, 8. Stanford, 9. Texas A&M, 10. South Carolina, 11. Oklahoma, 12. Oregon State, 13. Clemson, 14. Florida State, 15. UCLA, 16. Nebraska, 17. Northern Illinois, 18. Michigan, 19. Boise State, 20. Northwestern.
Saturday, November 24, 2012
Ho-Hum Goes the BCS
So much for BCS chaos.
For the first time in the history of the BCS, we know who'll be in the championship game even before the final weekend of the season. One team has already punched its ticket for the Jan. 7 game in Miami and the other will be decided on the field straight-up as if it were a semifinal game.
Just like how they do it in the No Fun League.
Instead of traffic bombs and all-night Twitter chatter, we can all hit the hay at about 8 p.m. ET next Saturday, secure in knowing who will play for the BCS title. The only drama left would be whether a non-AQ team will bust into the top 16 to crash the BCS party.
That's all we have left for BCS excitement in 2012.
So here's the projected BCS standings. And in the interest of finding where the non-AQ teams stand, we expand it to 20 this week from the usual 15:
1. Notre Dame, 2. Alabama, 3. Florida, 4. Georgia, 5. Oregon, 6. Stanford, 7. Kansas State, 8. LSU, 9. Texas A&M, 10. South Carolina, 11. Oklahoma, 12. Florida State, 13. Nebraska, 14. Clemson, 15. Oregon State, 16. UCLA, 17. Boise State, 18. Kent State, 19. Northern Illinois, 20. Michigan.
P.S. - If you're a Gator fan, please contain your excitement. You're headed to the Sugar Bowl but nothing more. Georgia will jump back over Florida next week if it beats Alabama in the SEC title game to snag the No. 2 spot to face Notre Dame. The SEC title game will be the unofficial BCS semifinal game.
For the first time in the history of the BCS, we know who'll be in the championship game even before the final weekend of the season. One team has already punched its ticket for the Jan. 7 game in Miami and the other will be decided on the field straight-up as if it were a semifinal game.
Just like how they do it in the No Fun League.
Instead of traffic bombs and all-night Twitter chatter, we can all hit the hay at about 8 p.m. ET next Saturday, secure in knowing who will play for the BCS title. The only drama left would be whether a non-AQ team will bust into the top 16 to crash the BCS party.
That's all we have left for BCS excitement in 2012.
So here's the projected BCS standings. And in the interest of finding where the non-AQ teams stand, we expand it to 20 this week from the usual 15:
1. Notre Dame, 2. Alabama, 3. Florida, 4. Georgia, 5. Oregon, 6. Stanford, 7. Kansas State, 8. LSU, 9. Texas A&M, 10. South Carolina, 11. Oklahoma, 12. Florida State, 13. Nebraska, 14. Clemson, 15. Oregon State, 16. UCLA, 17. Boise State, 18. Kent State, 19. Northern Illinois, 20. Michigan.
P.S. - If you're a Gator fan, please contain your excitement. You're headed to the Sugar Bowl but nothing more. Georgia will jump back over Florida next week if it beats Alabama in the SEC title game to snag the No. 2 spot to face Notre Dame. The SEC title game will be the unofficial BCS semifinal game.
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