The SEC dominated the second half of the BCS era, winning seven championships and firmly establishing itself as the premier conference in college football. That has led to an expansion of its footprint, added riches from television contracts, and a nascent network to be launched this August.
But none of it happens without the biggest upset in BCS history, a game that took place on the West Coast on the final day of the 2006 regular season. The end of one dynasty beget another.
USC entered its annual rivalry game in 2006 ranked No. 2 in the BCS standings. The Trojans were poised to appear in an unprecedented third consecutive BCS title game and all they had to do was handling their downtrodden, 5-6 crosstown rival. And why not? USC had won seven straight in the series and mauled the Bruins the year before, 66-19.
A simple USC victory would've set up a BCS title game against Ohio State, leaving Florida (and the SEC) on the sideline. It would've been an eighth consecutive season without an undisputed national title for the conference. After Tennessee won the first championship of the BCS era in 1998, the SEC only appeared in one title game in the subsequent seven seasons, and that resulted in LSU's split title with USC in 2003.
There was little doubt that USC would go on to trounce the Buckeyes in the BCS title game as Florida eventually did. The Trojans would've won their third national title in four years and left little doubt as to who truly rules the BCS. They likely would've gone to another one or two BCS title games in the following two seasons.
But that dynasty inexplicably got derailed on that December afternoon at the Rose Bowl by the underdog Bruins. USC's high-powered offense was totally stifled and shut out in the second half. It was the only time in Pete Carroll's final eight seasons at USC that his team would be held under double digits.
USC's 13-9 loss not only opened the door for the SEC to return to the BCS title game, but it gave birth to a new narrative. After Florida ascended to No. 2 and then routed undefeated Ohio State for the national championship, the argument that the SEC as "the toughest conference" began to take hold.
That in no small part contributed to the SEC's earning a spot in the BCS championship game for both 2007 and 2008. In both seasons, the SEC won the title after sending a second-ranked team that edged teams from other conferences with the same number of losses.
In both seasons, one of those teams was USC. Had the Trojans won the 2006 title, it's easy to see how the narrative and argument would've gone very differently. USC probably would've been the one that beat out the other two-loss teams for No. 2 in 2007. And in 2008, the one-loss Trojans might've gone on to play in their fifth consecutive BCS title game.
The SEC can thank Karl Dorrell and DeWayne Walker, whose game plan in that fateful 2006 game teed up the conference's enduring run in the second half of the BCS era. They're both actually working in the neighborhood now as Dorrell is now the offensive coordinator at Vanderbilt and Walker the defensive backs coach for the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Showing posts with label UCLA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label UCLA. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 10, 2014
Friday, March 7, 2014
Hardest Schedules for 2014 Title Contenders
Earlier we examined the nonconference schedules of all 124 teams in FBS's 10 conferences. After dissecting the schedules both for how teams fared in 2013 as well as the intent going into constructing the slates, we found that the SEC as a whole doesn't want too many challenges when playing out of conference.
But that doesn't mean all SEC teams play soft schedules—in fact, far from it. After going through these team-by-team, and accounting for their conference schedules, we found a number of SEC teams have to run through quite a gauntlet just to make the title game in Atlanta.
On the other hand, while the Big Ten was found to have, on average, the most difficult out-of-conference (OOC) schedules as a whole, its best teams do not necessarily make things harder for themselves. The additions of Maryland and Rutgers, not exactly football powerhouses, only help to weaken the conference teams' strength of schedule.
Our review reveals that, after making it all the way to the BCS title game last season, Auburn will need another War Damn Miracle (or three) to get through its slate unscathed. Of course, with a four-team playoff format making its debut in 2014, the Tigers might be able to afford a hiccup.
(See complete 2014 OOC schedules by team)
Here are the top five toughest schedules in 2014, keep in mind that we're only ranking teams with legitimate aspirations to make the College Football Playoff field:
Notre Dame, along with USC and UCLA—the only three schools that have never played FCS teams in history—check in behind Auburn. The Irish play a brutal schedule that includes 10 BCS conference opponents, and the other two are Navy and Conference USA champion Rice. Clemson is also in this group, with two games against SEC powerhouses and also defending national champion Florida State.
The Seminoles don't quite have a cakewalk on the way to defend their title, either. FSU has two high-profile OOC games with Oklahoma State and Notre Dame, in addition to Clemson and ACC newcomer Louisville. And if Florida rebounds from its disastrous 2013 season, it can make things even more challenging for the 'Noles.
Here are the next five:
There are three SEC teams, and two each from the Pac-12, Big 12 and ACC, plus Notre Dame in the top 10. Conspicuous by their absence are Big Ten teams, as well as Alabama, which always seems to have an easier go of it than its SEC West rivals.
Come back for our next installment to see who has the easiest path to the 2014 national championship.
But that doesn't mean all SEC teams play soft schedules—in fact, far from it. After going through these team-by-team, and accounting for their conference schedules, we found a number of SEC teams have to run through quite a gauntlet just to make the title game in Atlanta.
On the other hand, while the Big Ten was found to have, on average, the most difficult out-of-conference (OOC) schedules as a whole, its best teams do not necessarily make things harder for themselves. The additions of Maryland and Rutgers, not exactly football powerhouses, only help to weaken the conference teams' strength of schedule.
Our review reveals that, after making it all the way to the BCS title game last season, Auburn will need another War Damn Miracle (or three) to get through its slate unscathed. Of course, with a four-team playoff format making its debut in 2014, the Tigers might be able to afford a hiccup.
(See complete 2014 OOC schedules by team)
Here are the top five toughest schedules in 2014, keep in mind that we're only ranking teams with legitimate aspirations to make the College Football Playoff field:
| Rank | Team | OOC Rank | Road | Notable Games |
| 1 | Auburn | 81 | 5 | @KSU, LSU, @UGA, @Bama |
| 2 | Notre Dame | - | 5 | Stan, @FSU, @ASU, @USC |
| 3 | UCLA | 27 | 6 | Texas*, Ore, USC, Stan |
| 4 | USC | 8 | 6 | @Stan, ASU, @UCLA, ND |
| 5 | Clemson | 54 | 5 | @UGA, @FSU, L'ville, SCar |
Notre Dame, along with USC and UCLA—the only three schools that have never played FCS teams in history—check in behind Auburn. The Irish play a brutal schedule that includes 10 BCS conference opponents, and the other two are Navy and Conference USA champion Rice. Clemson is also in this group, with two games against SEC powerhouses and also defending national champion Florida State.
The Seminoles don't quite have a cakewalk on the way to defend their title, either. FSU has two high-profile OOC games with Oklahoma State and Notre Dame, in addition to Clemson and ACC newcomer Louisville. And if Florida rebounds from its disastrous 2013 season, it can make things even more challenging for the 'Noles.
Here are the next five:
| Rank | Team | OOC Rank | Road | Notable Games |
| 6 | Oklahoma St. | 29 | 5 | FSU*, Texas, @Bay, @OU |
| 7 | South Carolina | 46 | 5 | UGA, @Mizz, @Aub, @Clem |
| 8 | Florida St. | 15 | 5 | OKst*, Clem, ND, @L'ville |
| 9 | Texas | 4 | 4 | UCLA*, Bay, OU*, @OSU |
| 10 | Georgia | 49 | 4 | Clem, @SCar, @Mizz, Aub |
There are three SEC teams, and two each from the Pac-12, Big 12 and ACC, plus Notre Dame in the top 10. Conspicuous by their absence are Big Ten teams, as well as Alabama, which always seems to have an easier go of it than its SEC West rivals.
Come back for our next installment to see who has the easiest path to the 2014 national championship.
Friday, December 13, 2013
BCS Review Series: 1998, The New Beginning
Part 1 of a series: Beginning this week, I will review each of the 16 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. I will examine the results from these seasons—who got lucky and who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear throughout December and January.
---
On the precipice of a disaster in its infancy, the BCS was magically rescued by the hurricanes—one named Georges, the other named Edgerrin James.
Three teams headed into the final Saturday of the season with undefeated records: Tennessee, Kansas State and UCLA. The Vols and Wildcats were scheduled to play in their respective conference title games at night; while the Bruins, riding a nation-best 20-game winning streak, were to play Miami at the Orange Bowl in a makeup game earlier in the afternoon.
Originally, the game was to be played on Sept. 26. But because of the imminent threat of Hurricane Georges, it was temporarily postponed. UCLA had the option of canceling the game outright and standing on its performance in 10 games, but it took the risky move of rescheduling the game for the final day of the season.
The Miami team that beat UCLA, 49-45, that day was a vast improvement over the one the Bruins would've faced on Sept. 26. Behind James' 299 rushing yards (on 39 carries), the 'Canes shredded a shaky UCLA defense and benefited from an erroneous fumble call. Besides ending UCLA's quest to appear in the first BCS title game, Miami's upset victory began the Bruins' long descent into national irrelevance.
After UCLA's loss, it was up to Tennessee and Kansas State to hold up their end of the bargain. The Volunteers did, but the Wildcats didn't—losing to double-digit underdog Texas A&M in double overtime, 36-33. As a parting gift, K-State was handed an Alamo Bowl berth after being shut out of the BCS bowls.
While the Tennessee-Florida State title game—played in the Fiesta Bowl—was generally acknowledged as a fair outcome, there were a few minor controversies in the year of BCS's birth. Besides the snubbing of K-State, an 11-0 Tulane team was also shut out of the BCS. But thanks to the hurricanes, a catastrophe was averted.
Complete Final BCS Standings
Alternative methods
Using post-2003 BCS formula: 1. Tennessee, 2. Florida State.
Likely four-team playoff: Tennessee vs. UCLA; Florida State vs. Ohio State.
With Kansas State failing to win its conference and having the weakest strength of schedule among the five contending teams, this would be a fairly easy choice.
Controversies
Kansas State snub: Despite finishing third in the final BCS standings, the Wildcats found themselves in the non-BCS Alamo Bowl. The Sugar Bowl opted for Big Ten co-champion Ohio State, which was the top-ranked team for most of the season until a 28-24 upset loss to Michigan State. The Orange Bowl took Steve Spurrier's Florida Gators, who finished eighth in the BCS standings. A dispirited and disinterested K-State team lost to Purdue, 37-34.
Tulane snub: An 11-0 record and Conference USA title weren't enough to get the Green Wave to a BCS bowl game, let alone a spot in the title game. Tulane, ranked No. 10, would've received an automatic berth by finishing in the Top 12 in today's current format. Nevertheless, playing without a head coach after Tommy Bowden left to take the Clemson job, the Green Wave routed BYU, 41-27, in the Liberty Bowl under some guy named Rich Rodriguez.
BCS formula review: The initial BCS standings, the brainchild of then-SEC commissioner Roy Kramer, was an unwieldy, unholy trinity—human polls, computer rankings and strength of schedule. Each loss was tacked on as an additional penalty. Only three computers were used—Anderson & Hester, Jeff Sagarin and The New York Times. Margin of victory was used by all three computers and a 50 percent adjusted maximum deviation factor was applied.
Final analysis: UCLA's loss gave the BCS founding fathers a huge sigh of relief. Tennessee's 23-16 victory over Florida State in the Fiesta Bowl, though underwhelming, was controversy-free. The BCS seemingly passed its first test, but the fun was only beginning.
---
On the precipice of a disaster in its infancy, the BCS was magically rescued by the hurricanes—one named Georges, the other named Edgerrin James.
Three teams headed into the final Saturday of the season with undefeated records: Tennessee, Kansas State and UCLA. The Vols and Wildcats were scheduled to play in their respective conference title games at night; while the Bruins, riding a nation-best 20-game winning streak, were to play Miami at the Orange Bowl in a makeup game earlier in the afternoon.
Originally, the game was to be played on Sept. 26. But because of the imminent threat of Hurricane Georges, it was temporarily postponed. UCLA had the option of canceling the game outright and standing on its performance in 10 games, but it took the risky move of rescheduling the game for the final day of the season.
The Miami team that beat UCLA, 49-45, that day was a vast improvement over the one the Bruins would've faced on Sept. 26. Behind James' 299 rushing yards (on 39 carries), the 'Canes shredded a shaky UCLA defense and benefited from an erroneous fumble call. Besides ending UCLA's quest to appear in the first BCS title game, Miami's upset victory began the Bruins' long descent into national irrelevance.
After UCLA's loss, it was up to Tennessee and Kansas State to hold up their end of the bargain. The Volunteers did, but the Wildcats didn't—losing to double-digit underdog Texas A&M in double overtime, 36-33. As a parting gift, K-State was handed an Alamo Bowl berth after being shut out of the BCS bowls.
While the Tennessee-Florida State title game—played in the Fiesta Bowl—was generally acknowledged as a fair outcome, there were a few minor controversies in the year of BCS's birth. Besides the snubbing of K-State, an 11-0 Tulane team was also shut out of the BCS. But thanks to the hurricanes, a catastrophe was averted.
Complete Final BCS Standings
| Rank | Team | Poll Avg | Computer | SoS | Loss | BCS |
| 1 | Tennessee | 1.0 | 1.67 | 20 | 0 | 3.47 |
| 2 | Florida State | 2.0 | 1.75 | 4 | 1 | 4.91 |
| 3 | Kansas State | 4.0 | 3.00 | 49 | 1 | 9.96 |
| 4 | Ohio State | 3.0 | 5.25 | 28 | 1 | 10.37 |
| 5 | UCLA | 5.5 | 4.08 | 8 | 1 | 10.90 |
Alternative methods
Using post-2003 BCS formula: 1. Tennessee, 2. Florida State.
Likely four-team playoff: Tennessee vs. UCLA; Florida State vs. Ohio State.
With Kansas State failing to win its conference and having the weakest strength of schedule among the five contending teams, this would be a fairly easy choice.
Controversies
Kansas State snub: Despite finishing third in the final BCS standings, the Wildcats found themselves in the non-BCS Alamo Bowl. The Sugar Bowl opted for Big Ten co-champion Ohio State, which was the top-ranked team for most of the season until a 28-24 upset loss to Michigan State. The Orange Bowl took Steve Spurrier's Florida Gators, who finished eighth in the BCS standings. A dispirited and disinterested K-State team lost to Purdue, 37-34.
Tulane snub: An 11-0 record and Conference USA title weren't enough to get the Green Wave to a BCS bowl game, let alone a spot in the title game. Tulane, ranked No. 10, would've received an automatic berth by finishing in the Top 12 in today's current format. Nevertheless, playing without a head coach after Tommy Bowden left to take the Clemson job, the Green Wave routed BYU, 41-27, in the Liberty Bowl under some guy named Rich Rodriguez.
1998 BCS Bowl Matchups
| Game | Score | Attendance | TV Rating |
| Fiesta Bowl* | #1 Tennessee 23, #2 Florida St. 16 | 80,470 | 17.2 |
| Rose Bowl | #9 Wisconsin 38, #5 UCLA 31 | 93,872 | 13.3 |
| Sugar Bowl | #4 Ohio St. 24, #6 Texas A&M 14 | 76,503 | 11.5 |
| Orange Bowl | #8 Florida 31, #15 Syracuse 10 | 67,919 | 8.4 |
BCS formula review: The initial BCS standings, the brainchild of then-SEC commissioner Roy Kramer, was an unwieldy, unholy trinity—human polls, computer rankings and strength of schedule. Each loss was tacked on as an additional penalty. Only three computers were used—Anderson & Hester, Jeff Sagarin and The New York Times. Margin of victory was used by all three computers and a 50 percent adjusted maximum deviation factor was applied.
Final analysis: UCLA's loss gave the BCS founding fathers a huge sigh of relief. Tennessee's 23-16 victory over Florida State in the Fiesta Bowl, though underwhelming, was controversy-free. The BCS seemingly passed its first test, but the fun was only beginning.
Friday, November 22, 2013
Top 10 Late-Season Upsets in BCS Era
On paper, it looks like a matchup between No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Florida State looks all but inevitable at this point. While the Tide still have the Iron Bowl to contend with and the Seminoles must beat rival Florida and win the ACC title game, the odds are that they will handle their business and then meet up in Pasadena.
But will they?
With three week remaining in the season, a lot of strange things could still happen. (OK, maybe not this week with Alabama playing Chattanooga and FSU facing Idaho.) In fact, in the BCS era, late November and December have been littered with upsets that shattered the hopes and dreams of teams on the verge of playing for the national title.
In order of magnitude, these are our top 10 late-season upsets in the BCS era, considering only a team's penultimate or final regular-season games:
1. UCLA 13, USC 9 (2006): The Trojans, ranked No. 2 in the BCS standings, were only a win away from appearing in their third straight BCS title game. They were in the midst of a tremendous roll, having won 44 of their last 46 games. In easily the biggest upset in the Pete Carroll era, the 6-5 Bruins snapped their seven-game losing streak against their crosstown rivals and USC has not been back in the BCS title game since.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
But will they?
With three week remaining in the season, a lot of strange things could still happen. (OK, maybe not this week with Alabama playing Chattanooga and FSU facing Idaho.) In fact, in the BCS era, late November and December have been littered with upsets that shattered the hopes and dreams of teams on the verge of playing for the national title.
In order of magnitude, these are our top 10 late-season upsets in the BCS era, considering only a team's penultimate or final regular-season games:
1. UCLA 13, USC 9 (2006): The Trojans, ranked No. 2 in the BCS standings, were only a win away from appearing in their third straight BCS title game. They were in the midst of a tremendous roll, having won 44 of their last 46 games. In easily the biggest upset in the Pete Carroll era, the 6-5 Bruins snapped their seven-game losing streak against their crosstown rivals and USC has not been back in the BCS title game since.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Friday, October 22, 2010
Pac-10's Senseless Championship Game
Larry Scott has done a lot of things right since he became commissioner of the Pac-10. He's had a few flubs, too. But hey, can't fault the man for trying. At least he thinks the Pac-10 brand is worth something and tries to get the proper market capitalization for it.
But this latest piece of news is both puzzling and alarming.
The realignment part was fine. You were never going to please everybody. The revenue distribution scheme is OK, though it's a bit of a head scratcher why UCLA deserves any extra cash - considering the Bruins have done nothing for the conference since 1998.
The real atrocity, however, is the decision to play the conference championship game on a campus site, hosted by the team with the best record.
Huh?
So all the dalliances with Texas and other Big 12 schools, the Plan B of grabbing Utah and Colorado, the big splash of an NYC preseason press conference, the new logo, the talk of a TV network ... all that, so you can play the inaugural Pac-12 title game at 54,000-seat Autzen Stadium in Eugene?
In a conference that boasts more major metropolises than any other, with L.A., San Francisco, Phoenix, Seattle, Denver, not to mention also San Diego, you chance having to host the crown jewel event of the conference - the Super Bowl, if you will - in Corvallis? Or Tucson?
Scott invoked the NFL on the rationale of bestowing home field advantage on the team with the best record, but does he recall the Buffalo Bills hosting four straight Super Bowls in the early 1990s? The NFL is not stupid enough to play its showcase event on a contingency basis.
To be sure, next season is going to be tricky for the new Pac-12. USC is still on probation (pending an appeal) and therefore won't be eligible to play for the championship. Otherwise, it would've been a slam dunk to play the inaugural game at the Rose Bowl.
Maybe Scott is concerned that without the Trojans, it would be difficult to sell 90,000 tickets. He's hedging his bets - better to play in front of a full house in Eugene or Tucson than a sparse crowd in Pasadena. He clearly wanted to avoid a repeat of those memorable ACC title games in Jacksonville, where empty seats outnumbered paying customers.
But L.A. is not Jacksonville. And the Pac-10 is not the ACC (if Scott doesn't believe that, then what the hell is point of expansion?).
We say here that an inaugural Pac-12 title game in Pasadena - even without USC - would've been a smashing success. The nation's second-biggest media market doesn't have an NFL team, but does know how to throw a party (heard of the Academy Awards? Super Bowl? World Cup? Olympics?). The sheer novelty of the event would've guaranteed a sellout. And L.A. is a short flight away from anywhere in Pac-12 country, with lots of cheap lodging.
And that's how you build the momentum for a nascent project. Chances are, the Pac-12 title might be worth a trip to the BCS title game. The exuberant fans would want more, and this event would become as anticipated as the SEC championship game or the new Big Ten title game (bet you Jim Delaney wouldn't chance having that game played in West Lafayette or East Lansing).
Then you can start spreading the game around, all in major media markets with an NFL stadium as to preserve neutrality. Qwest Field, University of Phoenix Stadium, Oakland Coliseum, Invesco Field at Mile High, Candlestick, Qualcomm, and back in L.A., at the Rose Bowl, or maybe even the new NFL stadium (2018, is that enough time, Roger?).
What a wonderful opportunity. The Pac-10 title game could've been the envy of college football. Outside, in the sunshine, with some of the most attractive styles of play and players who'd soon suit up to play at these stadiums on Sundays. And yeah, the cheerleaders and song girls, too.
(And don't forget the media. If you're a national college football writer, where would you rather be? Atlanta?)
But no. Inexplicably, out of fear of failure than anything else, the Pac-10 decides to play it safe. Scott punts on fourth-and-inches.
So much for the self-proclaimed "Conference of Champions."
But this latest piece of news is both puzzling and alarming.
The realignment part was fine. You were never going to please everybody. The revenue distribution scheme is OK, though it's a bit of a head scratcher why UCLA deserves any extra cash - considering the Bruins have done nothing for the conference since 1998.
The real atrocity, however, is the decision to play the conference championship game on a campus site, hosted by the team with the best record.
Huh?
So all the dalliances with Texas and other Big 12 schools, the Plan B of grabbing Utah and Colorado, the big splash of an NYC preseason press conference, the new logo, the talk of a TV network ... all that, so you can play the inaugural Pac-12 title game at 54,000-seat Autzen Stadium in Eugene?
In a conference that boasts more major metropolises than any other, with L.A., San Francisco, Phoenix, Seattle, Denver, not to mention also San Diego, you chance having to host the crown jewel event of the conference - the Super Bowl, if you will - in Corvallis? Or Tucson?
Scott invoked the NFL on the rationale of bestowing home field advantage on the team with the best record, but does he recall the Buffalo Bills hosting four straight Super Bowls in the early 1990s? The NFL is not stupid enough to play its showcase event on a contingency basis.
To be sure, next season is going to be tricky for the new Pac-12. USC is still on probation (pending an appeal) and therefore won't be eligible to play for the championship. Otherwise, it would've been a slam dunk to play the inaugural game at the Rose Bowl.
Maybe Scott is concerned that without the Trojans, it would be difficult to sell 90,000 tickets. He's hedging his bets - better to play in front of a full house in Eugene or Tucson than a sparse crowd in Pasadena. He clearly wanted to avoid a repeat of those memorable ACC title games in Jacksonville, where empty seats outnumbered paying customers.
But L.A. is not Jacksonville. And the Pac-10 is not the ACC (if Scott doesn't believe that, then what the hell is point of expansion?).
We say here that an inaugural Pac-12 title game in Pasadena - even without USC - would've been a smashing success. The nation's second-biggest media market doesn't have an NFL team, but does know how to throw a party (heard of the Academy Awards? Super Bowl? World Cup? Olympics?). The sheer novelty of the event would've guaranteed a sellout. And L.A. is a short flight away from anywhere in Pac-12 country, with lots of cheap lodging.
And that's how you build the momentum for a nascent project. Chances are, the Pac-12 title might be worth a trip to the BCS title game. The exuberant fans would want more, and this event would become as anticipated as the SEC championship game or the new Big Ten title game (bet you Jim Delaney wouldn't chance having that game played in West Lafayette or East Lansing).
Then you can start spreading the game around, all in major media markets with an NFL stadium as to preserve neutrality. Qwest Field, University of Phoenix Stadium, Oakland Coliseum, Invesco Field at Mile High, Candlestick, Qualcomm, and back in L.A., at the Rose Bowl, or maybe even the new NFL stadium (2018, is that enough time, Roger?).
What a wonderful opportunity. The Pac-10 title game could've been the envy of college football. Outside, in the sunshine, with some of the most attractive styles of play and players who'd soon suit up to play at these stadiums on Sundays. And yeah, the cheerleaders and song girls, too.
(And don't forget the media. If you're a national college football writer, where would you rather be? Atlanta?)
But no. Inexplicably, out of fear of failure than anything else, the Pac-10 decides to play it safe. Scott punts on fourth-and-inches.
So much for the self-proclaimed "Conference of Champions."
Sunday, December 6, 2009
Humanitarian or Bust
Listen to the Guru's Podcast with Jay Christensen of The Wiz of Odds.
UCLA and Notre Dame are rivals. Maybe not so much on the gridiron, but there was a day that these two schools competed fiercely in basketball. After all, it was Digger Phelps' Fighting Irish who ended the Bruins' historic 88-game winning streak in 1974.
But today, UCLA should send a thank-you note to South Bend. For it was Notre Dame's decision to sit out the bowl games that opened the door for the Bruins to extend their season.
As of Friday, UCLA looked to be the odd team out: The only BCS conference school that's bowl eligible but unable to find a spot to play anywhere. The Pac-10, once again, had eggs on its face, with its inability to get more attractive bowl matchups for its conference teams, never mind enough of them to place all bowl eligible teams.
Take a look at the conference tie-in table here:
SEC - 8 (12 member schools)
ACC - 8 (12)
Big 12 - 7 (12)
Big Ten - 6 (11)
Big East - 5 (8)
Mountain West - 5 (9)
Pac-10 - 5 (10)
Conference USA - 5 (12)
WAC - 3 (9)
MAC - 3 (13)
Sun Belt - 1 (9)
Army/Navy - 2 (2)
As you can see, the Pac-10 has by far the worst bowl tie-in ratio among BCS conferences, and it's even worse than the one that Mountain West has. In addition, with the Pac-10 perennially left out of the at-large pool for BCS bowls and its weak bowl affiliations, its member schools suffer in terms of postseason revenue as well.
Without Notre Dame bowing out of the bowl picture, the epithet of this UCLA season would've been Pete Carroll's decision to dial up a bomb in a 28-7 USC victory after Rick Neuheisel refused to accept the Trojans' offer of truce. Now, at least the Bruins get to frolic on Boise's blue turf, leaving the Little Caesars Bowl with potentially two MAC teams.
Pizza, Pizza.
UPDATE: UCLA decided to take the risk of waiting for the Army-Navy game, accepting a conditional bid to the EagleBank Bowl in Washington, D.C., and eschewing the Humanitarian Bowl. If Navy wins, the Bruins will play Temple. If Army wins, the Bruins will stay home. Little Caesars Bowl ends up with an almost all-MAC bowl, with Marshall, a former MAC member, facing Ohio.
Here's one final look at the bowl picture before tonight's selection show. With 68 teams slated to play in 34 bowl games, there are 71 eligible teams with one game still remaining (Army vs. Navy):
BCS BOUND (10)
Alabama (SEC)
Texas (Big 12)
Cincinnati (Big East)
TCU (non-BCS automatic)
Oregon (Pac-10)
Ohio State (Big Ten)
Georgia Tech (ACC)
Boise State (at-large)
Florida (at-large)
Iowa or Penn State (at-large)
BOWL QUALIFIED (50) - teams with at least 7 wins
Clemson
Virginia Tech
North Carolina
Boston College
Miami (Fla.)
West Virginia
Pittsburgh
South Florida
Rutgers
Connecticut
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Nebraska
Missouri
Texas Tech
Penn State or Iowa
Wisconsin
Northwestern
USC
Oregon State
Arizona
Stanford
California
LSU
South Carolina
Arkansas
Ole Miss
Auburn
Kentucky
Tennessee
Georgia
BYU
Utah
Air Force
Nevada
Idaho
Fresno State
Houston
Central Florida
Southern Miss
East Carolina
SMU
Navy
Temple
Ohio
Central Michigan
Northern Illinois
Bowling Green
Troy
Middle Tennessee State
BOWL ELIGIBLE (11) - Teams with 6 wins
Florida State
Iowa State
Texas A&M
Michigan State
Minnesota
Notre Dame +
UCLA *
Wyoming
Marshall
Louisiana-Monroe ^
Louisiana-Lafayette ^
+ Opted not to participate in the postseason
^ Will not receive bowl bids
ON THE BRINK (1)
Army *
* If Army defeats Navy on Saturday, the Black Knights will play in the EagleBank Bowl, replacing UCLA.
Sunday, September 20, 2009
The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 3)
The Guru's ballot this week. A couple of notes below:
 | ||
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florida |  1 |
| 2 | Texas | 1 |
| 3 | Alabama | 1 |
| 4 | Miami (Florida) | 11 |
| 5 | Boise State | 1 |
| 6 | LSU | 3 |
| 7 | California | |
| 8 | Penn State | |
| 9 | USC |  8 |
| 10 | Ohio State | |
| 11 | Mississippi | 2 |
| 12 | Virginia Tech | 2 |
| 13 | Florida State | |
| 14 | Brigham Young | 9 |
| 15 | Oklahoma | 4 |
| 16 | Houston | 2 |
| 17 | UCLA | 7 |
| 18 | Cincinnati | 4 |
| 19 | Michigan | 6 |
| 20 | Auburn | |
| 21 | Missouri | 4 |
| 22 | TCU | 10 |
| 23 | Oregon | |
| 24 | Oklahoma State | 5 |
| 25 | Georgia | 5 |
| Last week's ballot | ||
Dropped Out: Utah (#16), Georgia Tech (#21), Pittsburgh (#23).
Three weeks into the season, the previous ballots are still essentially meaningless. It's what's happening on the field that counts. That's why there seems to be a bit of an upheaval from last week's ballot to this week's. But the key thing here is that this ballot is completely logical.
* USC dropped eight spots from No. 1 to No. 9, and is now the highest ranked team with one loss. Obviously, the Trojans are ranked ahead of Ohio State by virtual of their victory in Columbus two weeks ago. And they must be ranked behind LSU, which won handily at Husky Stadium (don't let the final score fool you) to open the season.
* Miami shot up the rankings, which had less to do with its own victory over now-unranked Georgia Tech, but much more to do with Florida State's massacre of BYU in Provo. The 'Canes will have a chance to solidify their ranking next week with a home game against Oklahoma.
* UCLA is moving up rapidly, again because of other events besides its own play. The Bruins, fashioning a surprisingly stout defense, got a huge boost from Tennessee's closer-than-expected loss at Florida. UCLA's four-point win at Knoxville now must be viewed a bit more favorably than when it actually took place.
* TCU saw a dramatic drop on my ballot, despite winning its game against I-AA Texas State. The Horned Frogs now have two virtually meaningless wins (the other is against woeful Virginia), so they should consider themselves lucky to even be on the ballot. Other teams, such as Kansas, North Carolina and Pittsburgh, will remain unranked despite perfect records until they achieve a meaningful victory.
Three weeks into the season, the previous ballots are still essentially meaningless. It's what's happening on the field that counts. That's why there seems to be a bit of an upheaval from last week's ballot to this week's. But the key thing here is that this ballot is completely logical.
* USC dropped eight spots from No. 1 to No. 9, and is now the highest ranked team with one loss. Obviously, the Trojans are ranked ahead of Ohio State by virtual of their victory in Columbus two weeks ago. And they must be ranked behind LSU, which won handily at Husky Stadium (don't let the final score fool you) to open the season.
* Miami shot up the rankings, which had less to do with its own victory over now-unranked Georgia Tech, but much more to do with Florida State's massacre of BYU in Provo. The 'Canes will have a chance to solidify their ranking next week with a home game against Oklahoma.
* UCLA is moving up rapidly, again because of other events besides its own play. The Bruins, fashioning a surprisingly stout defense, got a huge boost from Tennessee's closer-than-expected loss at Florida. UCLA's four-point win at Knoxville now must be viewed a bit more favorably than when it actually took place.
* TCU saw a dramatic drop on my ballot, despite winning its game against I-AA Texas State. The Horned Frogs now have two virtually meaningless wins (the other is against woeful Virginia), so they should consider themselves lucky to even be on the ballot. Other teams, such as Kansas, North Carolina and Pittsburgh, will remain unranked despite perfect records until they achieve a meaningful victory.
Friday, May 30, 2008
Ten Years of BCS: 1998
The Guru's Note: Beginning in June, the Guru will publish a review of each of the 10 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. In this series -- Ten Years of BCS -- the Guru will examine the results from these seasons -- who got lucky and who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear weekly leading up to the 2008 season.
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On the precipice of a disaster in its infancy, the BCS was magically rescued by the hurricanes -- one named Georges, the other named Edgerrin James.
Three teams headed into the final Saturday of the season with undefeated records: Tennessee, Kansas State and UCLA. The Vols and Wildcats were scheduled to play in their respective conference title games; while the Bruins, riding a nation-best 20-game winning streak, were to play Miami at the Orange Bowl in a makeup game.
Originally, the game was to be played on Sept. 26. But because of the imminent threat of Hurricane Georges, it was temporarily postponed. UCLA had the option of canceling the game outright and standing on its performance in 10 games, but it took the risky move of rescheduling the game for the final day of the season.
The Miami team that beat UCLA, 49-45, that day was a vast improvement over the one the Bruins would've faced on Sept. 26. Behind James' 299 rushing yards (on 39 carries), the 'Canes shredded a shaky UCLA defense and benefited from an erroneous fumble call. Besides ending UCLA's quest to appear in the first BCS title game, Miami's upset victory sent the Bruins on a long descent into national irrelevance.
After UCLA's loss, it was up to Tennessee and Kansas State to hold up their end of the bargain. The Volunteers did but the Wildcats didn't -- losing to double-digit underdog Texas A&M in double overtime, 36-33. As a parting gift, K-State was handed an Alamo Bowl berth after being shut out of the BCS bowls.
While the Tennessee-Florida State title game -- played in the Fiesta Bowl -- was generally acknowledged as a fair outcome, there were a few minor controversies in the year of BCS's birth. Besides the snubbing of K-State, an 11-0 Tulane team was also shut out of the BCS. But thanks to the hurricanes, a catastrophe was averted.
Final BCS Standings: 1. Tennessee, 2. Florida State, 3. Kansas State, 4. Ohio State.
Alternative methods:
Using present day BCS formula: 1. Tennessee, 2. Florida State.
Using human polls only: 1. Tennessee (1-AP, 1-Coaches), 2. Florida State (2-AP, 2-Coaches).
Plus-One: Tennessee vs. Ohio State; Florida State vs. Kansas State.
Controversies:
Kansas State snub: Despite finishing third in the final BCS standings, the Wildcats found themselves in the non-BCS Alamo Bowl. The Sugar Bowl opted for Big Ten co-champion Ohio State, who was the top-ranked team for most of the season until a 28-24 upset loss to Michigan State. The Orange Bowl took Steve Spurrier's Florida Gators, who finished eighth in the BCS standings. A dispirited and disinterested K-State team lost to Purdue, 37-34.
Tulane snub: An 11-0 record and Conference USA title weren't enough to get the Green Wave to a BCS bowl game, let alone a spot in the title game. Tulane, ranked No. 10, today would've received an automatic berth by being in the top 12. Nevertheless, playing without a head coach after Tommy Bowden took the Clemson job, the Green Wave romped to a 41-27 Liberty Bowl victory over BYU under some guy named Rich Rodriguez.
BCS Formula Review: The initial BCS standings, the brainchild of then-SEC commissioner Roy Kramer, was an unwieldy clunker divided in three -- human polls, computer rankings and strength of schedule. And each loss is tacked on as additional penalty. Only three computers were used -- Anderson & Hester, Jeff Sagarin and New York Times. Margin of victory was accounted for by all three computers and a 50% adjusted maximum deviation factor was applied.
Analysis: UCLA's loss, which occurred earlier in the day on Dec. 5, gave the BCS poobahs a huge sigh of relief. Tennessee's 23-16 victory over Florida State in the Fiesta Bowl, though underwhelming, was controversy-free. The BCS seemingly passed its first test ... only if they knew.
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