BYU In Line to Bust BCS

Fresno State's loss to Wisconsin eliminated one of the potential contenders fighting for a BCS bowl berth. But three weeks into the season, a handful of non-BCS conference teams still have a reasonably good chance to bust the BCS, headed by Brigham Young, fresh off a 59-0 conquest of UCLA.

USC solidified its hold on the No. 1 spot in the latest unofficial BCS standings. The Trojans, after trouncing then-No. 5 Ohio State, 35-3, dominated both the AP and coaches polls. Oklahoma ascended to the second spot in the polls, but it's Georgia now occupying the No. 2 BCS ranking.

Despite their lackluster 14-7 win over South Carolina and subsequent drop in the polls, the Bulldogs jumped back into the second spot because margin of victory cannot be considered by BCS computers. (This is an issue the Guru will deal with extensively in the coming weeks.) Georgia's superior computer ratings were enough to vault it over the Sooners, who are now No. 3, followed by Florida, last week's No. 2 but idle this past weekend.

Missouri, LSU, Wisconsin, Auburn, Texas and Alabama round out the top 10.

Just outside of the top 10 sits Brigham Young, which jumped up six spots to No. 11. The Cougars are also 11th in the coaches poll and 7th in two BCS computers.

This scenario bodes well for BYU, which will try to win its first BCS bowl berth in school history. The Cougars leapfrogged East Carolina, which sits at No. 15 after a 28-24 victory over Tulane. Two other Mountain West members also cracked the top 25, with Utah at No. 18 and Texas Christian at No. 23.

As long as BYU remains undefeated, there would be almost no foreseeable circumstances that could keep it from getting a BCS berth. Because of the strength of the MWC - which just went 4-0 against the Pac-10 last Saturday - it's nearly impossible for ECU to get by BYU in either the polls or the computers. In fact, if both BYU and Utah remain unbeaten when they face each other in the season finale, the winner of that Nov. 22 game will certainly earn a BCS bowl berth, even if the Pirates go 13-0 and win the Conference USA title.

A BCS berth, meanwhile, is about all Ohio State has to play for after its drubbing by USC at the Coliseum. The Buckeyes fell to No. 16 in the BCS standings, and, with too many unbeaten teams still ahead of them and the weakness of the Big Ten, a return to a third consecutive BCS title game is just about out of the question. As it is, five SEC teams and four Big 12 teams are currently ranked ahead of Ohio State.

One team that currently sits in the BCS netherworld but worth keeping an eye on is No. 41 Notre Dame. After their 35-17 win over Michigan last week, the Irish are 2-0 and probably seven or eight wins away from a BCS bowl berth. The schedule is quite favorable for Notre Dame this year, with only the season finale at USC a no-win situation. The Irish are guaranteed a BCS bowl berth if they finish in the top 8 of the final BCS standings, and a top-14 finish makes them eligible - and nearly impossible to pass up - for a BCS bowl.

Gators Lurking At No. 2

Who's No. 1? Who cares. All we need to know is who's No. 2.

In the world of BCS, it's all important being No. 2. At the end of the season, being No. 2 gets you a ticket to the big shindig. And five out of the last six years, the No. 2 team walked away with the BCS crystal ball trophy.

Two weeks into the season, that coveted No. 2 spot is now occupied by Florida, the BCS champion of 2006. USC, idle last weekend, continues to enjoy a comfortable lead at No. 1 in this week's unofficial BCS standings. Georgia, No. 2 in both AP and coaches polls, follows at No. 3 while Oklahoma moves up to No. 4.

The team that suffered almost irreparable harm despite winning last week was Ohio State. The Buckeyes dropped to No. 5 in the BCS standings after needing a muffed punt and a punt return for a touchdown late in the game to put away Ohio, 26-14. The non-loss became damaging because it's turned Ohio State's Saturday showdown at USC into a must-win game.

If the Buckeyes, No. 1 in the preseason, win that game, then all is well - they might move back up to No. 1, even. But if they lose the game, then they can forget about a third consecutive trip to the BCS title game. The pollsters are already extremely suspicious of the Buckeyes after back-to-back thrashing losses the last two years. A loss to USC, especially a lopsided one as the fifth-ranked team, makes it virtually impossible for Ohio State to climb its way back up the BCS ladder.

Two more SEC teams are in the top 10 of the standings, with defending BCS champion LSU coming in at No. 6 and Auburn at No. 9. Two other Big 12 teams - No. 7 Missouri and No. 8 Texas - join Oklahoma in the top 10, with Kansas just outside at No. 11. Wisconsin checks in at No. 10.

The story of the season so far is the performance of non-BCS teams. In this week's standings, four teams from three different non-BCS conferences made the top 25. Conference USA's East Carolina, the leading BCS Buster candidate at the moment, is the highest ranked at No. 16. The Pirates' ranking is in fact hurt by their ridiculously low placement in the coaches poll (No. 20) even after their thumping of then-No. 8 West Virginia.

The Mountain West's Brigham Young and Utah, each already with a victory over BCS conference teams, are at No. 17 and No. 20, respectively. Fresno State, seeking the WAC's third consecutive BCS invitation, is at No. 23, with a Saturday home date against Wisconsin coming up.

While all the non-BCS conference teams are vying for just a single BCS invitation, the ACC and Big East are sitting pretty with automatic bids, despite dreadful performances in the season's first two weeks. Wake Forest is the ACC's lone representative in the top 25, and the Demon Deacons needed a Sam Swank 41-yard field goal with three seconds left to thwart SEC also-ran Ole Miss.

The Big East has little to brag about, either. South Florida and Connecticut are the only conference teams without a loss right now and both needed overtime to stay unbeaten last week (over Central Florida and Temple, respectively). West Virginia, expected to be the standard-bearer of the conference, plummeted to No. 24 after taking a beating from East Carolina.

Beware of the Pirates

It's only the second weekend of the season and the BCS bowl jockeying has already started. Such is the beauty (and the beauty pageant nature) of college football.

Shortly after East Carolina's resounding 24-3 triumph over West Virginia - its second victory over a BCS conference team in as many weeks - I received a nervous e-mail from a good friend asking if he should be worried about those men in purple. You see, he roots for a BCS conference team and a potential BCS buster like the Pirates just might ruin his plans by stealing a possible at-large BCS bid.

My response?

Be afraid. Be very afraid.

East Carolina is the team to watch for this year's BCS buster race. In 2006, we had Boise State. Last year, it was Hawaii. Before the start of this season, the chic pick was Fresno State. And the Bulldogs certainly were quite persuasive in a 24-7 opening week win at Rutgers.

But Fresno State, No. 24 in the unofficial BCS standings, has a pretty ambitious - and therefore tough - schedule ahead of it. The Dawgs host Wisconsin next week and has a trip to the Rose Bowl against a rejuvenated UCLA team on Sept. 27. And the WAC schedule is best not to be overlooked as well, not when Fresno finishes the season with a date on the blue turf against Boise State.

A couple of Mountain West teams also have aspirations to be a BCS buster. Utah, with a conquest in the Big House already in the bag, should be the odds-on favorite to win the conference. Then there's the Utes' sworn enemy Brigham Young, which narrowly escaped Washington with a win on Saturday. The Cougars still need to get by UCLA next week and they finish the season with a pair of daunting road games at Air Force and archrival Utah.

But of all the non-BCS teams vying for a big BCS payday, no one would possess a better resume than East Carolina should it win out. The Pirates have already beaten (then-No. 17) Virginia Tech and No. 8 West Virginia. Their four non-conference games are all against BCS conference opponents (North Carolina State and Virginia still remain). If ECU runs the table, it would finish the regular season with a 13-0 record and 4-0 against teams in the Big East and ACC (with two probable conference champions). That would be good enough to lock up a BCS berth.

In fact, East Carolina's toughest remaining contest might be the Conference USA championship game, against perhaps either Rice or Tulsa. Whether the Pirates can handle that kind of pressure just might decide the BCS bowl pecking order, because the burden of having to win one last game to earn a BCS bid has proved to be enormous.

An astounding eight times (out of 23 opportunities), a higher ranked team, needing only a win to clinch either a BCS title game berth or a BCS bowl bid, lost to an underdog in the conference championship game in the BCS Era (1998-2007). Add three other choke jobs (UCLA in 1998, USC in 2006 and West Virginia in 2007) - when a team lost its final regular-season game to blow a shot at the BCS title game - the pressure of the "last big game" has manifested itself time and again.

And who better than East Carolina coach Skip Holtz should understand that? He was a 29-year-old offensive coordinator (under his father Lou) for Notre Dame in 1993 when the No. 1-ranked Irish needed only a home win over Boston College to secure a shot at the national championship. Instead, the Holtzs watched Tom Coughlin's Eagles pull out a 41-39 upset on David Gordon's 41-yard field goal as time expired.

Notre Dame has not recovered from that loss. Neither has Lou Holtz. Skip Holtz might remember that a bit more vividly later in the season should the Pirates continue their run at a BCS bid.

But we're only two weeks into the season. Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves.


(For you Notre Dame fans - and haters - here's a trip down memory lane)