BCS Review Series: 2007, LSU Goes 'Undefeated in Regulation'

Part 10 of a series: Over the next few weeks, I will be reviewing each of the 16 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. Here is a look back at who got lucky, who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear throughout December and January.

Part 1: 1998, A New Beginning for College Football

Part 2: 1999, FSU Ends Michael Vick's Quest for Perfection

Part 3: 2000, FSU-Miami Sows Seeds of Controversy

Part 4: 2001, Nebraska Fiasco Rocks College Football

Part 5: 2002, Controversy On-Field Mars Perfect Ending

Part 6: 2003, Nightmare of Split National Championship

Part 7: 2004, Unbeaten Auburn Left Out in the Cold

Part 8: 2005, Perfect Season Ends With Epic at Rose Bowl

Part 9: 2006, Dawn of SEC's Reign in College Football

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In the 16-year existence of the BCS, there was never a season quite like 2007. It had a fitting end, too, with the Mad Hatter coming out on top in the wackiest finish of all.

It began with the biggest upset victory in perhaps college football history, with I-AA Appalachian State blocking a last-second field goal to stun No. 5 Michigan at the Big House. It would turn out to be not even the biggest upset of the season, and "As the Wolverine Turns" became a soap opera that enraptured the college football world for all of 2007.

Coming off a 1-11 season and now under upstart new coach Jim Harbaugh, Stanford pulled off the even bigger upset when it shocked Pete Carroll's five-time defending Pac-10 champion USC at the L.A. Coliseum, 24-23. In what would become the "What's-Your-Deal-Bowl" that followed the coaches right out of the college ranks to the NFL, a new rivalry was born.

This was the season that both South Florida and Boston College occupied the No. 2 spot in the official BCS standings. The month of November had such a slew of upsets that the same two teams never made it to the top of the BCS standings. In the final two weeks of the season, both of the top-two teams lost both weeks.

It really got going in the penultimate weekend of the season, when No. 1 LSU lost to Arkansas in triple overtime and No. 2 Kansas lost to Missouri in the Border War at Arrowhead Stadium. The twin upsets put Mizzou and West Virginia on top of the BCS standings, but things were far from settled as both teams still had games to play in the final week.

Second-ranked West Virginia appeared to be a lock, though, facing a 4-7 Pitt team at home in the Backyard Brawl. Rich Rodriguez's Mountaineers, save for an early-season hiccup against South Florida, had rolled through the Big East with relative ease, and the school's first BCS title game appeared in sight. A long-term extension for the native-son coach who had a true rags-to-riches story also was on the table, waiting to be signed.

No. 1 Missouri had a tougher task, facing Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game. Should the Tigers falter, third-ranked Ohio State would be ready to step in to face West Virginia for the BCS title.

The Buckeyes were ranked No. 1 in the beginning of November but seemingly fell out of contention after an upset loss to Illinois. Ohio State now had a chance to backdoor its way into a second consecutive BCS title game appearance after beating Michigan for the Big Ten title.

Ah, Michigan. As it turned out, the Wolverines were far from done even after that upset loss to Appy State and then getting destroyed by Oregon the following week. Michigan reeled off eight wins in a row and would have gotten a Rose Bowl berth with a win over Ohio State.

But Michigan was also looking for a coach, as Lloyd Carr was stepping down after 13 years at the helm. The guy it wanted was "Michigan Man" Les Miles, who had played for and coached under Bo Schembechler. Since LSU appeared to be out of contention for the national championship chase, the timing seemed right.

Merely hours before LSU was to play Tennessee in the SEC title game, ESPN's Kirk Herbstreit floated out the news that Michigan had a done deal with Miles. This report prompted a bizarre retort from the Mad Hatter, who was ready to coach his "damn strong football team" and wished everyone a "great day" in a one-minute virtuoso performance:

LSU went on to beat the Vols, 31-20, but not before West Virginia suffered one of the biggest choke jobs in college football history in a 13-9 loss to Pitt. Miles then implored the voters to get his Tigers to the BCS Championship Game, noting his team was "undefeated in regulation."



The rhetoric worked. After No. 1 Mizzou's loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game, LSU vaulted from No. 7 to No. 2 in the final BCS standings, which earned the Tigers a date with Ohio State in the BCS Championship Game. Miles opted not to go to Michigan, instead coaching LSU to its second BCS title with a rout of Ohio State in New Orleans.

Michigan then decided to hire the guy who didn't get to the championship game. After a clandestine meeting in Toledo with the Michigan brass, RichRod became the surprise choice in Ann Arbor—and the rest, as they say, became John U. Bacon's bestseller Three and Out. Lloyd Carr delivered his own parting shot, beating Urban Meyer and Heisman winner Tim Tebow in the Capital One Bowl to cap a comically strange season.

Final BCS Standings: 1. Ohio State, 2. LSU, 3. Virginia Tech, 4. Oklahoma, 5. Georgia.

Likely four-team playoff: Ohio State vs. Oklahoma; LSU vs. Virginia Tech.

All four teams won their respective conferences, though No. 7 USC and No. 9 West Virginia probably both had a claim, too, as every major champion conference champion other than Ohio State had two losses. And with the benefit of hindsight, USC and WVU would have been better choices than either OU or Va. Tech.


Controversies

Missouri Snub: Despite being ranked No. 1 in the penultimate BCS standings and having won its division, No. 6 Mizzou was denied a BCS bowl berth when the Orange Bowl opted to take No. 8 Kansas, whose lone loss of the season was to the Tigers. Ostensibly, that KU would travel better was given as the reason. Outraged Mizzou fans carried a grudge against the Big 12 for the snub and later would cite it as one of the reasons why the school left for the SEC.

This issue would plague the BCS bowls throughout the eight-year existence of the double-host system, as the team that lost the conference championship game would be routinely passed over in favor of a team that didn't even make it to the title game.

Hawaii Flop: June Jones' Warriors coasted through a soft schedule that included two games against I-AA opponents and three against teams that won either one or two games. They finished 12-0 and ranked No. 10 in the BCS standings, earning a trip to the Sugar Bowl to face Georgia.

In one of the worst BCS bowl performances, Hawaii was pummeled in a 41-10 loss, and the final score wasn't any worse only because Georgia took its foot off the gas in the second half. The game prompted calls to revise and toughen qualifying standards for non-AQ conference teams, but the BCS wisely resisted the urge.

2007 BCS Bowl Matchups

Bowl	Score	Attendance	TV Rating
BCS Champ*	No. 2 LSU 38, No. 1 Ohio St. 24	79,651	14.4
Rose Bowl	No. 7 USC 49, No. 13 Illinois 17	93,923	11.1
Fiesta Bowl	No. 9 WVU 48, No. 4 Oklahoma 28	70,016	7.7
Orange Bowl	No. 8 Kansas 24, No. 3 Va. Tech 21	74,111	7.4
Sugar Bowl	No. 5 Georgia 41, No. 10 Hawaii 10	74,383	7.0

Final analysis: In the first and only time in BCS' 16-year history, a two-loss team played in (and won) the BCS Championship Game. And it was the beginning of the SEC's ascendancy to the top of the BCS, in terms of both perception and performance.

Why was LSU picked ahead of four other two-loss major conference champions despite having just lost a game in the penultimate week of the regular season?

Les Miles' clever "undefeated in regulation" campaign—conjured up by his wife Kathy, actually—certainly worked to LSU's advantage. But the voters also started to buy into the superiority of the SEC argument, divining that the Tigers' two losses were more forgivable than the ones suffered by Oklahoma and USC—not to mention West Virginia and Virginia Tech, which did lose to LSU head-to-head.

The SEC ended up winning its second consecutive BCS title with a second straight blowout of Ohio State. Its juggernaut was only growing in strength, both on and off the field.

Lots of Tigers Jockeying for BCS Position

And then there are three.

As another undefeated team bites the dust—this time it's Baylor getting blown out by Oklahoma State, 49-17—the BCS title game picture actually is becoming more and less clear at the same time. More clear because without question No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Florida State will face each other if they both win out. Less clear because if either team should lose, it can potentially bring a one-loss team back into the picture.

For now, Ohio State is projected to be a solid No. 3 in the next BCS standings and it's extremely unlikely that the Buckeyes will fall behind any one-loss team, even if that's a one-loss SEC champion Auburn or Missouri. They will be getting a major boost if Michigan State can defeat Minnesota next week and arrive at the Big Ten title game at 11-1 and ranked in the top 10.

But that's where the intrigue comes in. Michigan State has the potential to defeat Ohio State and if Alabama and/or FSU should stumble in the next two weeks, what then?

Projected BCS Standings:

1. Alabama, 2. Florida State, 3. Ohio State, 4. Auburn, 5. Clemson, 6. Missouri, 7. Oklahoma State, 8. Stanford, 9. South Carolina, 10. Michigan State.

11. Baylor, 12. Oregon, 13. Arizona State, 14. Wisconsin, 15. LSU, 16. Fresno State, 17. Northern Illinois, 18. Central Florida, 19. Louisville, 20. Oklahoma.

21. Texas A&M, 22. USC, 23. Duke, 24. UCLA, 25. Georgia.

(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)

Will Unbeaten Mizzou Be Shut Out of BCS Title Game?

Only a week ago, the SEC's dominance of the BCS seemed unquestioned in college football.

Three conference teams were ranked in the top seven of the simulated BCS standings, with three more in the top 15. The SEC champion was destined to be in the BCS title game for an eighth straight season, whether it be Alabama or somebody else.

A week later, after a slew of upsets, only two SEC teams are still in the Top 10 of the official BCS standings. Unheralded Missouri checked in at No. 5, as it's now one of only two unbeaten SEC teams, along with top-ranked Alabama. In fact, only one other SEC team has fewer than two losses—No. 11 Auburn.

This naturally brings up the question: If Alabama should stumble somewhere along the way, could Mizzou win the SEC without a loss, but get shut out of the BCS title game?

The answer is: possibly, but probably not.

The Tigers are currently ranked sixth and seventh in the Harris and Coaches polls, respectively, but are third in the computer rankings. They will have an opportunity to improve their poll positions with games against South Carolina, Ole Miss and Texas A&M still to come. How much of a boost they get in the polls will ultimately decide whether or not they have a shot at the BCS championship.

Since the adoption of the current formula for the BCS in 2004, every team that finished first or second in the final BCS standings has played in the title game, regardless of their computer rankings. It's a beauty pageant with 170-plus judges while the computers are merely window dressing.

(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)

An Anti-Climactic End, Perhaps?

Call it a hunch. But the 2007 season, one spectacularly long on upsets and short on dominant teams, might end with sort of a whimper. Maybe everything will fall in place according to form on Saturday and thus giving us one hell of a boring bowl season.

If West Virginia defeats Pittsburgh, as widely expected, then there won't be much drama as to the BCS bowl lineup. The Mountaineers will play either Missouri or Ohio State, with Georgia, Kansas, USC, Arizona State, Hawai'i and champions of the SEC and ACC expected to earn BCS bowl bids.

A few wild cards are still out there: What if both Missouri and West Virginia lose? What if UCLA beats USC and wins the Pac-10? What if Hawai'i loses to Washington? A total of 16 teams are still in contention to earn one of the 10 BCS bowl bids. Some control their own destiny, some are only at the mercy of the bowl committees.

Here's the outlook for these 16 teams (The Rooting Guide):

1. Missouri (11-1)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Oklahoma (Big XII championship game)
National title scenario: Missouri is headed to the BCS title game with a win.
BCS bowl scenario: It's an all-or-nothing deal. A loss will drop the Tigers to perhaps a Cotton Bowl berth.

2. West Virginia (10-1)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Pittsburgh
National title scenario: West Virginia is headed to the BCS title game with a win.
BCS bowl scenario: Already clinched Big East title; a loss will drop the Mountaineers to either the Fiesta Bowl or Orange Bowl.

3. Ohio State (11-1)
Remaining game: Regular season complete
National title scenario: Ohio State is a loss by either Missouri or West Virginia away from a second consecutive BCS title game appearance, and third overall.
BCS bowl scenario: Ohio State has already a Rose Bowl berth in hand.

4. Georgia (10-2)
Remaining game: Regular season complete
National title scenario: It's a long, long shot. The Dawgs need both Missouri and West Virginia to lose and hope neither Virginia Tech nor LSU jumps them. There will be huge shifts in the polls to prevent UGA from being ranked higher than an SEC-winning LSU.
BCS bowl scenario: Georgia has a lock on a BCS berth, by virtue of being in the No. 4 spot. Most likely it'll be the Orange Bowl, but the Rose Bowl is not out of the question.

5. Kansas (11-1)
Remaining game: Regular season complete
National title scenario: An even-longer shot than Georgia, just about no shot at all.
BCS bowl scenario: Kansas is headed to the desert for the Fiesta Bowl against Arizona State or maybe even the Rose Bowl.

6. Virginia Tech (10-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Boston College (ACC championship game)
National title scenario: Slim. VaTech needs Missouri and West Virginia to lose and then hope it can jump Georgia and Kansas and not get jumped by LSU.
BCS bowl prospect: A victory clinches an Orange Bowl berth. A loss most likely will knock the Hokies out of BCS bowl contention.

7. LSU (10-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Tennessee (SEC championship game)
National title scenario: Very slim, but still there. If Missouri and West Virginia both lose, LSU has the best chance of moving up to No. 2 and earn a date with Ohio State.
BCS bowl scenario: A win guarantees a Sugar Bowl berth. A loss will drop the Tigers out of a BCS bowl altogether.

8. USC (9-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. UCLA
BCS bowl scenario: A victory means a lot for the Trojans -- sweet revenge; a fourth Rose Bowl appearance in five years; sixth-straight BCS bowl appearance, a record; and an opportunity to finish in the Top 4 in the sixth straight year, another record. A loss might mean a trip to El Paso.

9. Oklahoma (10-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Missouri (Big XII championship game)
BCS bowl scenario: Win, it's back to the Fiesta Bowl, opposing either Kansas or Arizona State. A loss means perhaps a Cotton Bowl berth.

11. Boston College (10-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Virginia Tech (ACC championship game)
BCS bowl scenario: A victory over the Hokies will give the Eagles an Orange Bowl berth.

12. Hawai'i (11-0)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Washington
BCS bowl scenario: In all likelihood, a win will get the Warriors a trip to the Sugar Bowl. To prevent any possible backroom dealing, a Boston College loss to Virginia Tech will help things greatly.

13. Arizona State (9-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Arizona
BCS bowl scenario: The Sun Devils will earn a Rose Bowl berth with a win and a USC loss. If the Trojans win, ASU probably will still get a Fiesta Bowl berth with a victory over the Wildcats. One potential scenario that might spoil it for the Sun Devils: Should the Rose Bowl choose Illinois, the Fiesta Bowl might opt for Kansas vs. Oklahoma if the Sooners win the Big XII title, thus shutting out hometown team ASU.

14. Tennessee (9-3)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. LSU (SEC championship game)
BCS bowl scenario: A victory will get the Volunteers a Sugar Bowl berth, an unlikely outcome after their bad start in the regular season.

15. Illinois (9-3)
Remaining game: Regular season complete
BCS bowl scenario: The Illini-to-Rose-Bowl talk is dying a quick death in light of Fiesta Bowl's intention to take Kansas, even in the event of Oklahoma beating Missouri for the Big XII title. The Rose Bowl would like to preempt that by taking the only other 1-loss team available if it loses Ohio State to the BCS title game. The Illini most likely are headed to the CapitalOne Bowl.

19. BYU (9-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 at San Diego State
BCS bowl scenario: The Cougars are only still in this thing because of the possibility of UCLA winning the Pac-10. BYU would need the Bruins to upset USC, Arizona to upset Arizona State and Hawai'i to lose to Washington -- and rise to at least No. 16 in the BCS standings. Well, it's just not gonna happen.

42. UCLA (6-5)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 at USC
BCS bowl scenario: Believe it or not, the Bruins don't need that much help to make it to the Rose Bowl. A win over USC, coupled with an Arizona win at Arizona State, gives UCLA the Pac-10 title -- via the tiebreaker in a four-way tie with USC, ASU and the Oregon-Oregon State winner. Of course, a loss might keep the Bruins home for the holidays -- and that's probably where they will be.

The Final Week

The maddening 2007 season is coming to a close. And the lucky ones are those who have already finished playing.

Last week, Nos. 1 and 2 both went down, clearing the path for three teams to vie for the BCS national championship. After the release of the latest BCS standings, the scenarios are much clearer -- though there is still potential for Armageddon.

The Guru has broken down those scenarios and the attendant results for all BCS bowls: (*denotes team must win its final game to earn berth)

Scenario One: Missouri beats Oklahoma, West Virginia beats Pittsburgh (Probability: 40.5%)

National championship: Missouri vs. West Virginia
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. USC*
Orange Bowl: ACC champ vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State* vs. Kansas
Sugar Bowl: SEC champ vs. Hawai'i*

Scenario Two: Oklahoma beats Missouri, West Virginia beats Pittsburgh (49.5%)

National championship: West Virginia vs. Ohio State
Rose Bowl: Illinois vs. USC*
Orange Bowl: ACC champ vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State* vs. Oklahoma
Sugar Bowl: SEC champ vs. Hawai'i*

Scenario Three: Missouri beats Oklahoma, Pittsburgh beats West Virginia (4.5%)

National championship: Missouri vs. Ohio State
Rose Bowl: Illinois vs. USC*
Orange Bowl: ACC champ vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State* vs. West Virginia
Sugar Bowl: SEC champ vs. Hawai'i*

Scenario Four: Oklahoma beats Missouri, Pittsburgh beats West Virginia (5.5%)
(This would be the Armageddon Scenario, and the following would be a best guess)

National championship: LSU vs. Ohio State
Rose Bowl: Illinois vs. USC*
Orange Bowl: ACC champ vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State* vs. Oklahoma
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Hawai'i*

In all likelihood, one of the first two scenarios will occur and the BCS dodges another bullet. Should scenario No. 4 occur, it would become a BCS nightmare with as many as eight two-loss teams with a legitimate claim to the title game -- not to mention one-loss Kansas and perhaps a 12-0 Hawai'i as well.

The key game, obviously, is the Backyard Brawl at Morgantown. If the Mountaineers, favored by double digits, win as expected, all is well in the BCS world. If not, then we might have all sorts of controversies, not to mention a potential split national championship.

Isn't that what the BCS is all about?

Further down in the standings, Hawai'i has nearly locked up a BCS berth by climbing into the No. 12 spot of the BCS standings. The Warriors should feel pretty comfortable right now because the circumstances virtually guarantee them an appearance in the Sugar Bowl. Hawai'i simply needs to beat Washington and not get passed by anybody. Should they drop to No. 13, the Warriors then need Illinois to stay out of the Top 14 to maintain their hold on a BCS invitation.

On the other hand, the Big XII, even with three teams in the Top 10, is not assured of a second BCS berth. If Georgia (by being in the Top 4) and Hawai'i (by being in the Top 12) earn guaranteed berths, then the last two slots might be claimed by Arizona State and Illinois. The Fiesta Bowl favors ASU because of its proximity and the Rose Bowl favors the Illini because it would preserve the Big Ten-Pac-10 affiliation.

There are lots of what-ifs. This season is not going to get sorted out until midnight Saturday. And even then, the debates will go on all night.

These Tigers are No. 1

Just like last week, the Tigers will be atop of the new BCS standings. But it will be the Missouri Tigers who replace the LSU Tigers as the 2007 regular season enters its final week.

Closing in at No. 2 and a spot in the BCS title game will be West Virginia. After demolishing overmatched UConn on Saturday, the Mountaineers should have a commanding lead in the standings over No. 3 Ohio State.

The Buckeyes are hardly out of it, however. Should Missouri lose to Oklahoma in the Big XII championship game, Ohio State will be playing in its second straight BCS national championship game.

This is where it gets interesting: If Missouri loses and West Virginia also gets upset by Pittsburgh next week, there will be a glut of 2-loss teams vying for a spot opposite of Ohio State. Despite its loss to Missouri, Kansas still has a slim chance of making it to the BCS title game via a backdoor.

After Kansas's loss, Hawai'i is the only undefeated team in Division I-A, with Washington left on its schedule. The Warriors are on the cusp of becoming the second consecutive WAC champion to go undefeated and earn a BCS bowl berth. The Guru projects that Hawai'i will be at No. 13, just one spot short of getting a guaranteed BCS bid. However, at the moment Hawai'i will be the 10th eligible team in the Top 14, and stands a very good chance of earning a BCS bowl berth.

The Guru's Projected Top 15: 1. Missouri; 2. West Virginia; 3. Ohio State; 4. Kansas; 5. Georgia; 6. LSU; 7. Virginia Tech; 8. USC; 9. Arizona State; 10. Oklahoma; 11. Florida; 12. Boston College; 13. Hawai'i; 14. Tennessee; 15. Illinois.

Strange Days

If the 2007 isn't the most surreal of recent college football seasons, then Trojan fans will be rooting for the Bruins.

Wait, they will be, at least this weekend.

That's just one of the many unreal subplots in this penultimate weekend of the 2007 regular season, consider:

* No. 1 LSU was beaten for the second time this season in triple overtime. The first defeat, at Kentucky, knocked the Tigers down. This one, a shocker of a loss to Arkansas at home, knocked the Tigers out of the national championship chase.

* The Tigers' loss is cheered in places like Morgantown, Columbus, Norman and ... Ann Arbor?

* You betcha. By LSU losing a chance to go for the BCS national title, Les Miles becomes that much closer to be Lloyd Carr's successor. In fact, he could be Michigan's next coach as soon as 10 days from now.

* The Rose Bowl will be packed with USC fans cheering on UCLA this Saturday. They'd like to see the Bruins go on to defeat Oregon and then get pummeled by the Trojans next week. All that to send USC back to Pasadena.

* Or New Orleans?

* Don't look now, but two-loss teams are entering the conversations again for the national title. It probably won't happen, as two teams are guaranteed to have fewer than two losses (Ohio State and Kansas). But a split national championship might be in the cards once again.

* And if you claim that you'd predicted that the biggest game of the season would be played in Kansas City between Missouri and Kansas, then your name must be Nick Saban.

All this sets up a potential BCS championship game between West Virginia and Ohio State. Yep, if the Missouri/Kansas winner loses in the Big XII championship game, then that's probably what you'd get on Jan. 7 in New Orleans.

And that'd be a crying shame.

Can anyone really say that these are the best two teams in the country? Honestly? No. While they each have lost just one game so far, they also benefited from playing in the two weakest BCS conferences -- neither the Big Ten nor the Big East currently have another team in the Top 15 of the BCS standings. And neither Ohio State nor West Virginia played a remotely challenging non-conference schedule.

The Guru knows better than to traffic in playoff talk -- it's a pipe dream that'll never happen -- but you have to wonder if a season like this really deserves one. Or, if you like your football retro, then we'd be better off reliving the days of a good ol' free-for-all, like Jan. 1, 1984.

UO, OU, Oh, My!

Just when you thought we already had our upset of the week on Thursday, Texas Tech threw a monkey wrench to the BCS machine that was just beginning to churn somewhat normally.

Oklahoma's loss provided new life to the BCS title quests of West Virginia and Ohio State. And even Arizona State, with a key game against USC on Thanksgiving, might get back in the race as well.

The Guru projects that LSU will remain No. 1, Kansas will be the new No. 2, with West Virginia moving into No. 3, followed by Missouri, Ohio State and Arizona State. Every BCS conference team below No. 6 has at least two losses, and for now, is out of the title race.

Ohio State's victory might also have driven a large nail to the coffin, if not the final one, of Hawai'i's hopes of qualifying for a BCS berth. With the Top 16 clause not likely in effect, the Warriors will need a minor miracle to get into the Top 12, and with it, an automatic BCS berth.

The Guru's projected Top 15: 1. LSU; 2. Kansas; 3. West Virginia; 4. Missouri; 5. Ohio State; 6. Arizona State; 7. Georgia; 8. Virginia Tech; 9. Oregon; 10. Oklahoma; 11. USC; 12. Florida; 13. Texas; 14. Virginia; 15. Boston College.

The Countdown Begins

The season started with a blast, when Appalachian State took down mighty Michigan at the Big House. And it has continued in such dramatic fashion, with one upset after another, climaxing with Stanford's stunning win over USC last weekend. So when the first official BCS standings of 2007 come out on Sunday, they will bear little resemblance to the first unofficial standings we started the season with.

As the official standings start to roll out, the Guru's job becomes a bit more different, not to say a little more difficult as well. First, instead of publishing unofficial standings weekly, the Guru will now post projections every Saturday night, in advance of the official announcement Sunday afternoon. Also, the Guru will publish the official standings with color coding, offering important information to help you decipher the myriad of numbers that make up the BCS standings.

And as we started last week, the Guru's List will appear every Friday, like right now:

Gold: LSU will be in the national championship game if it wins out. Bar none. The Tigers shared the penthouse with USC for the first five weeks of the season. Now they have it all to themselves.

Silver: Cal or Ohio State? That's the question. While the Buckeyes are slightly in front, the Golden Bears, with a more difficult schedule and playing in a more difficult league, stand to benefit if they can manage to stay undefeated. Cal will beat out Ohio State should both teams finish unbeaten.

Bronze: South Florida, Boston College, Missouri, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Kansas and Connecticut are the only other unbeaten BCS conference teams. Some of those teams will play one another and knock each other out. And it's really difficult to see any of those teams go undefeated. For now, they're part of the elite "Clean Dozen Minus One."

Noticeably missing from the above list is Hawai'i. Yes, the Warriors remain unbeaten. And yes, after Friday night's game at San Jose State, they'll have to leave Honolulu only once (at Nevada) the rest of the season. But even if Hawai'i goes unbeaten, including a showdown win over Boise State, it might have a hard time getting into the Top 12, thus earning a guaranteed BCS bowl berth. Hawai'i ranks no higher than 30th in any of the computer ratings and as low as 76th (Massey). And human voters remain unimpressed with the Warriors' weak schedule (as low as dead last in Division I-A).

BCS Buster Games for Week 7:

4-Star: Missouri at Oklahoma -- One more loss, the Sooners are really done. But this game is more about Mizzou and whether it's ready to contend for the national championship. There might even be a rematch later, but OU will continue to own the Tigers, for now.

3-Star: LSU at Kentucky -- There are no easy games in the SEC, especially on the road. The Tigers had better not think too far ahead about next week's revenge game against Auburn, or UK might win this cat fight. In the end, though, LSU has too much to lose to let this one slip away.

2-Star: Oregon State at Cal -- A year ago, the Beavers handed USC its first conference loss in nearly three seasons. Can they upend another Pac-10 front-runner? Not in Strawberry Canyon.

1-Star: Louisville at Cincinnati -- The Cardinals' season is very much down the toilet. Now they want to drag down the unbeaten Bearcats with them. It's time to flush.