PASADENA, Calif. - They could've saved us all that trouble and just had the Rose Bowl the way it's meant to be played - Pac-12 vs. Big Ten in the Granddaddy of 'em All.
Instead, Oregon and Ohio State will face off in Jerry World, a palace built for pro football, to settle who gets the biggest prize in college football.
But the combatants in the inaugural College Football Playoff should be grateful that the BCS died a timely death. If it had been around for one more year, both the Ducks and Buckeyes would've been home watching the championship game as the the BCS standings would've matched up Alabama and Florida State instead.
Now the Jan. 12 game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, not only will settle the national championship question, it will also decide just which conference will inherit the mantle of "best conference in college football" from the dearly departed SEC.
Alabama's loss to Ohio State signaled the end of an era as the SEC will be absent from the national championship game for the first time since USC faced Texas in the Rose Bowl for the 2005 title. Each of the top five teams in the SEC West lost its bowl game after being trumpeted as the best division in college football throughout the 2014 regular season.
In contrast, the Pac-12 South actually can rightfully claim the "toughest division" moniker. Five of its six teams will finish with at least nine wins despite each facing at least 10 Power 5 opponents - more than any of their SEC West counterparts. And the best team in the Pac-12 didn't even come from this division.
That would be Oregon, which has beaten every team on its schedule, avenging its only regular-season loss by massacring South champion Arizona in the Pac-12 title game. The Ducks were even more merciless in their evisceration of Florida State, which was buried under an avalanche of second-half turnovers (five) in a 59-20 rout in the Rose Bowl.
Oregon punished FSU and Jameis Winston in a matchup featuring the last two Heisman Trophy winners. Winston lost one fumble - that was returned for a touchdown - and threw two interceptions. Oregon also converted two Dalvin Cook fumbles early in the third quarter into touchdowns and turned a close game into a mauling.
But the Ducks' blowout victory won't give the Pac-12 a long-awaited shot to dethrone the SEC, which had been the undisputed best conference in the latter part of the BCS era. Instead, in their path will be Ohio State and the Big Ten, which is rebuilding suddenly and ferociously. It all began on Tuesday when Michigan made the monster hire of Jim Harbaugh as coach and continued on New Year's Day with Michigan State rallying past Baylor in a thrilling Cotton Bowl.
But the lodestar that will guide the Big Ten's revival for now is Ohio State, which scored an unlikely 42-35 victory over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. The Buckeyes can take it a step further by snuffing out the budding Ducks dynasty as it did in the Rose Bowl after the 2009 season.
But these Ducks appear to be a better version than that team, or the 2010 team that fell to Auburn in the BCS title game on a fluke play. Heisman winner Marcus Mariota has been nearly flawless all season, throwing for 40 touchdowns, running for 15, receiving one with just three interceptions. Oregon's defense also proved to be anything but soft, allowing FSU only one second-half touchdown as Oregon scored the final 34 points of the game.
Oregon certainly hasn't missed a beat since Mark Helfrich took over from Chip Kelly, who bolted for the NFL after the 2012 season. Helfrich, 24-3 in his two seasons, knows how good his team is and declined to state just what it has proved and will prove with one more win.
"I don't know," he said after the Rose Bowl victory, laughing. "That's up to you. You guys are the geniuses in the media. We believe a ton in our deal and we believe a ton in who we are. We got a great team, great team of guys."
For much of the second half, as Oregon was completing its demolition of Florida State, Ducks fans repeatedly chanted "We Want Bama." They probably won't mind that the Crimson Tide couldn't keep the date as their conference's dominance has already fallen into the ash heap of history.
Showing posts with label Oregon. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Oregon. Show all posts
Thursday, January 1, 2015
Monday, September 22, 2014
Oklahoma New No. 1; Oregon Out
Several top-ranked teams had close calls this past weekend, but every one of them managed to survive with the exception of LSU. Nevertheless, there was still a bit of a shakeup at the top of the new mock College Football Playoff standings from last week.
With most of the early-season cupcake fest out of the way, the playoff picture will begin to take shape in earnest with conference games, which essentially serve as elimination games in the coming weeks as pretenders are weeded out.
There are only 25 unbeaten teams in FBS (out of 128) through the first four weeks of the season, including two independents (Notre Dame and BYU) and just two from the non-power five conferences (Cincinnati and Marshall). The race for not just the four playoff spots but also for the New Year's Six bowl berths should be extremely fascinating and closely contested.
COMPLETE CFP STANDINGS
The Playoff Teams
1. Oklahoma
The Sooners used a big second half to finally overcome a pesky West Virginia team that also gave Alabama fits in the season opener. With the Big 12 being the only power five conference without a championship game, OU must now navigate a treacherous schedule realizing that one loss might be enough to knock it out of the playoff race.
2. Auburn
The Tigers managed to escape Manhattan thanks to three K-State turnovers and three missed field goals. And now comes the hard part. After next week's game against Louisiana Tech, Auburn will play six consecutive ranked opponents. This could be the most difficult stretch of games in college football history.
3. Alabama
The Tide labored somewhat before finally pulling away from Florida to win their SEC opener. But unlike Auburn, Alabama's schedule is much more user-friendly and manageable. The Tide once again avoid all the SEC East heavyweights and even their games against SEC West foes are conveniently spaced out. Alabama will be tested this way though: Four of its next five games are on the road.
4. Florida State
The selection committee breathed a sigh of relief after Florida State survived Clemson in overtime. Why? Because had FSU lost without Jameis Winston and then gone on to win the rest of their games, the committee would have to weigh such a mitigating circumstance. But now that the 'Noles have won, the rest of their schedule shouldn't pose much of a challenge.
First Four Out
5. Oregon
With Florida State struggling, Oregon had a chance to seize the top ranking in the polls. Instead, the Ducks unexpectedly struggled against Washington State, whose QB Connor Halliday gashed them with 436 passing yards. Things won't get any easier from here, as the Pac-12 leads all conferences with seven unbeaten teams, including Oregon's next three opponents.
6. Texas A&M
If the Pac-12 is the toughest conference, then the SEC West is the toughest division, with five teams still unbeaten. Texas A&M had an easy go of it early in the season after a resounding opening win at South Carolina. Now the Aggies will be tested by four consecutive division foes in as many weeks.
7. Ole Miss
Whereas their in-state rivals grabbed the headlines with an upset win over LSU in Death Valley, Ole Miss is still the highest-ranked team in Mississippi. Of the five unbeaten SEC West teams, the Rebels are the least tested so far, but they don't figure to be exposed quite yet with a game against Memphis this week.
8. UCLA
Memphis, of course, gave UCLA fits at the Rose Bowl, losing by seven on a late touchdown. The Bruins have looked highly unimpressive so far, also barely squeaking by Virginia and Texas. Yet, thanks to lofty expectations from the preseason, they're still ranked highly in the polls. This Thursday's Pac-12 opener against Arizona State will reveal whether they're overrated.
Other Fun Facts
* East Carolina made a quantum leap in the polls, thanks to back-to-back wins over ACC opponents, including Saturday's 70-41 thrashing of North Carolina. The Pirates have the looks of a New Year's Six bowl contender, especially with their high-octane offense. Look for the Nov. 13 matchup at Cincinnati to potentially decide not only the American Athletic title, but also the "Group of Five" bowl berth.
* Does the Big Ten's rebound this week help Michigan State? After going 12-1 - 4-1 against the power five conferences - the conference somewhat repaired its reputation, though it might come a little too late. The Spartans are still only 16th in the mock standings and with few conference foes currently ranked, it's hard to see how they can make it all the way into the top four.
* Whereas most other teams are beginning their conference schedules in earnest, independent BYU will be playing four Mountain West opponents in its next six games. With the MWC considerably weaker than in the past, it won't help improve the Cougars' prospects of either landing a playoff spot (highly improbable) or a New Year's Six bowl bid (somewhat of a longshot).
With most of the early-season cupcake fest out of the way, the playoff picture will begin to take shape in earnest with conference games, which essentially serve as elimination games in the coming weeks as pretenders are weeded out.
There are only 25 unbeaten teams in FBS (out of 128) through the first four weeks of the season, including two independents (Notre Dame and BYU) and just two from the non-power five conferences (Cincinnati and Marshall). The race for not just the four playoff spots but also for the New Year's Six bowl berths should be extremely fascinating and closely contested.
COMPLETE CFP STANDINGS
The Playoff Teams
1. Oklahoma
The Sooners used a big second half to finally overcome a pesky West Virginia team that also gave Alabama fits in the season opener. With the Big 12 being the only power five conference without a championship game, OU must now navigate a treacherous schedule realizing that one loss might be enough to knock it out of the playoff race.
2. Auburn
The Tigers managed to escape Manhattan thanks to three K-State turnovers and three missed field goals. And now comes the hard part. After next week's game against Louisiana Tech, Auburn will play six consecutive ranked opponents. This could be the most difficult stretch of games in college football history.
3. Alabama
The Tide labored somewhat before finally pulling away from Florida to win their SEC opener. But unlike Auburn, Alabama's schedule is much more user-friendly and manageable. The Tide once again avoid all the SEC East heavyweights and even their games against SEC West foes are conveniently spaced out. Alabama will be tested this way though: Four of its next five games are on the road.
4. Florida State
The selection committee breathed a sigh of relief after Florida State survived Clemson in overtime. Why? Because had FSU lost without Jameis Winston and then gone on to win the rest of their games, the committee would have to weigh such a mitigating circumstance. But now that the 'Noles have won, the rest of their schedule shouldn't pose much of a challenge.
First Four Out
5. Oregon
With Florida State struggling, Oregon had a chance to seize the top ranking in the polls. Instead, the Ducks unexpectedly struggled against Washington State, whose QB Connor Halliday gashed them with 436 passing yards. Things won't get any easier from here, as the Pac-12 leads all conferences with seven unbeaten teams, including Oregon's next three opponents.
6. Texas A&M
If the Pac-12 is the toughest conference, then the SEC West is the toughest division, with five teams still unbeaten. Texas A&M had an easy go of it early in the season after a resounding opening win at South Carolina. Now the Aggies will be tested by four consecutive division foes in as many weeks.
7. Ole Miss
Whereas their in-state rivals grabbed the headlines with an upset win over LSU in Death Valley, Ole Miss is still the highest-ranked team in Mississippi. Of the five unbeaten SEC West teams, the Rebels are the least tested so far, but they don't figure to be exposed quite yet with a game against Memphis this week.
8. UCLA
Memphis, of course, gave UCLA fits at the Rose Bowl, losing by seven on a late touchdown. The Bruins have looked highly unimpressive so far, also barely squeaking by Virginia and Texas. Yet, thanks to lofty expectations from the preseason, they're still ranked highly in the polls. This Thursday's Pac-12 opener against Arizona State will reveal whether they're overrated.
Other Fun Facts
* East Carolina made a quantum leap in the polls, thanks to back-to-back wins over ACC opponents, including Saturday's 70-41 thrashing of North Carolina. The Pirates have the looks of a New Year's Six bowl contender, especially with their high-octane offense. Look for the Nov. 13 matchup at Cincinnati to potentially decide not only the American Athletic title, but also the "Group of Five" bowl berth.
* Does the Big Ten's rebound this week help Michigan State? After going 12-1 - 4-1 against the power five conferences - the conference somewhat repaired its reputation, though it might come a little too late. The Spartans are still only 16th in the mock standings and with few conference foes currently ranked, it's hard to see how they can make it all the way into the top four.
* Whereas most other teams are beginning their conference schedules in earnest, independent BYU will be playing four Mountain West opponents in its next six games. With the MWC considerably weaker than in the past, it won't help improve the Cougars' prospects of either landing a playoff spot (highly improbable) or a New Year's Six bowl bid (somewhat of a longshot).
Thursday, September 11, 2014
Oregon Vaults to No. 1 After Impressive Win
By scoring the final 28 points in a 46-27 rout of Michigan State last week, Oregon has supplanted defending national champion Florida State in our CFP weekly rankings.
(See our explanation for the methodology of our standings.)
The Ducks jumped from No. 3 to the top spot, thanks to a massive increase in vote shares in the AP poll and the top spot in the composite computer rankings. Florida State dropped one spot to No. 2, followed by Auburn and Oklahoma.
Five of the top nine teams are from the SEC, though only one among the top four to qualify for the playoff. USC made the biggest jump, gaining seven spots to No. 7 after last week's close win at Stanford, while Notre Dame moved up six spots to No. 10.
After last week's bloodbath, the highest-ranked Big Ten team is Michigan State at No. 13. The Spartans, the defending conference champions and last year's Rose Bowl winner, still have the best shot of reaching the four-team playoff. But with the collective weakness of the conference, that will be a difficult task.
The Power 5 conferences, continuing a trend from the final years of the BCS, are dominating the standings. Of the 44 teams ranked this week, only two are from the "Group of Five" conferences, with American Athletic's Cincinnati at No. 35 and Conference USA's Marshall at No. 43. No team from the Mountain West, Mid-American or Sun Belt is currently ranked.
(See our explanation for the methodology of our standings.)
The Ducks jumped from No. 3 to the top spot, thanks to a massive increase in vote shares in the AP poll and the top spot in the composite computer rankings. Florida State dropped one spot to No. 2, followed by Auburn and Oklahoma.
Five of the top nine teams are from the SEC, though only one among the top four to qualify for the playoff. USC made the biggest jump, gaining seven spots to No. 7 after last week's close win at Stanford, while Notre Dame moved up six spots to No. 10.
After last week's bloodbath, the highest-ranked Big Ten team is Michigan State at No. 13. The Spartans, the defending conference champions and last year's Rose Bowl winner, still have the best shot of reaching the four-team playoff. But with the collective weakness of the conference, that will be a difficult task.
The Power 5 conferences, continuing a trend from the final years of the BCS, are dominating the standings. Of the 44 teams ranked this week, only two are from the "Group of Five" conferences, with American Athletic's Cincinnati at No. 35 and Conference USA's Marshall at No. 43. No team from the Mountain West, Mid-American or Sun Belt is currently ranked.
Monday, February 3, 2014
BCS Review Series: 2013, FSU Ends SEC's 7-Year Reign
Part 16 of a series: This is the final installment of a series reviewing each of the 16 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. The articles are a look back at who got lucky, who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day.
Part 1: 1998, A New Beginning for College Football
Part 2: 1999, FSU Ends Michael Vick's Quest for Perfection
Part 3: 2000, FSU-Miami Sows Seeds of Controversy
Part 4: 2001, Nebraska Fiasco Rocks College Football
Part 5: 2002, Controversy on Field Mars Perfect Ending
Part 6: 2003, Nightmare of Split National Championship
Part 7: 2004, Unbeaten Auburn Left Out in the Cold
Part 8: 2005, Perfect Season Ends With Epic at Rose Bowl
Part 9: 2006, Dawn of SEC's Reign in College Football
Part 10: 2007, LSU Goes "Undefeated in Regulation"
Part 11: 2008, SEC Wins in Polls, Then on the Field
Part 12: 2009, Alabama, Texas More Equal Than Others
Part 13: 2010, SEC and Pac-10 Finally Get Together
Part 14: 2011, LSU Robbed of Title in All-SEC Absurdity
Part 15: 2012, Notre Dame's Last Shot at BCS Glory
---
The 2013 season was a funeral procession for the Bowl Championship Series. By the time the season started, everyone knew the BCS was going away, to be replaced by the newfangled College Football Playoff. The rest was just details.
Throughout the season, little tidbits about the new CFP would trickle out—how the playoff teams would be picked, who will be on the 13-person committee, where would the championship game be held, among other things. While Condolezza Rice got plenty of love and hate for being on the exclusive selection committee, the final BCS season marched on, noisily and gloriously.
Alabama was presumed to be in the BCS title game for a shot to go for an unprecedented third consecutive national championship. Other than another shootout with Johnny Football early in the season, the Tide steamrolled through their schedule until a showdown with an unlikely obstacle in Auburn.
The Tigers, under first-year coach Gus Malzahn, had survived one close call after another—particularly against Georgia—to arrive at the Iron Bowl with their own shot at winning the SEC West. It took perhaps the best final play in the history of college football (sorry, The Play), but the now immortalized Kick Six effectively ended the Alabama dynasty.
After defeating Missouri in a wild conference championship game, Auburn carried with it two streaks into the BCS title game—the SEC's seven-year reign as BCS champions as well as the state of Alabama's four-year ownership of the crystal ball.
The man charged with ending those streaks happened to be intimately familiar with the SEC. Jimbo Fisher was the quarterbacks coach at Auburn and then an assistant under Nick Saban at LSU before being tasked to rebuilt a floundering former dynasty at Florida State. He launched a SEC-esque powerhouse in the ACC, with top athletes, a stout defense, and an irrepressible freshman quarterback named Jameis Winston.
While Winston encountered little resistance on the field in leading FSU to one rout after another, his season (and career) was put in jeopardy when a year-old allegation of sexual assault surfaced during the season. He was cleared just days before the ACC championship game, and he would go on to lead the 'Noles to a blowout of Duke and pick up the Heisman Trophy in the process.
The BCS era then ended on a high note. On a glorious January evening at the Rose Bowl, FSU charged back from an early 21-3 deficit and scored the winning touchdown with just 13 seconds left when Winston found Kelvin Benjamin in the back of the end zone. An old power that dominated at the advent of the BCS was back on top of college football again, just in time for the dawn of a new era.
Final BCS standings: 1. Florida State, 2. Auburn, 3. Alabama, 4. Michigan State, 5. Stanford.
Likely four-team playoff: Florida State vs. Stanford; Auburn vs. Michigan State.
What would the committee do? They wouldn't say, but had the members revealed their hypothetical CFP matchups for 2013, we'd have gotten a good idea on just how much weight they would assign to winning the conference championship.
Controversies
Demise of non-AQ conferences: The formation of super-power conferences was probably the most significant legacy of the BCS. At the end of the era, there were just five major conferences, with all the also-rans picked clean.
Utah and TCU, both appeared in multiple BCS bowl games as non-AQ members, now reside in the Pac-12 and Big 12, respectively. Boise State's unique run as an annual BCS buster likely came to an end when coach Chris Petersen left for Washington. The former Big East is trying to stay relevant after rebranding as American Athletic, but it's susceptible to further poaching of its most high-profile members.
In 2013, both Fresno State and Northern Illinois made a run for a BCS bowl berth. Ultimately both teams lost a late-season game to blow their chances. But as an illustration of the gaps now exist between the haves and have-nots, both teams were unable to even come away with a win in second-tier bowl games.
Sugar Bowl takes OU over UO: Oregon had looked, for most of the season, the team most likely to challenge Alabama for the BCS title. Two late-season losses denied the Ducks a chance to win the Pac-12, though they were still very much in the hunt for a fifth consecutive BCS bowl berth.
At the end, politics trumped all other considerations. The Sugar Bowl, about to begin a relationship with the Big 12 in the CFP, opted to honor those ties a year early by taking Oklahoma to face Alabama. Oregon was left with an Alamo Bowl invitation to face Texas.
Despite predictions of a major blowout, the Sugar Bowl instead showcased a stunning upset. The huge underdog Sooners rattled Alabama early and held on late to end the Tide's season with two consecutive losses.
Final analysis: Much derided and little loved, the BCS evolved over its 16-year existence to gain grudging legitimacy at the end. With the standings formula unchanged after the 2003 season, it was for the most part transparent and predictable.
The same cannot be said for the CFP, especially in its initial season of 2014, when little is known about the selection process, which will be entirely decided by the 13-person committee. Even with the promised release of four standings in the second half of the season, no one can be remotely sure how the four-team field will be chosen until it is revealed the day after the regular season ends.
For better or worse, the BCS made college football truly a national sport by intersecting regional interests throughout the regular season. And more importantly, it bestowed ever more clout and made enormous amounts of cash for the power conferences. For some, it was a "golden era" indeed.
Part 1: 1998, A New Beginning for College Football
Part 2: 1999, FSU Ends Michael Vick's Quest for Perfection
Part 3: 2000, FSU-Miami Sows Seeds of Controversy
Part 4: 2001, Nebraska Fiasco Rocks College Football
Part 5: 2002, Controversy on Field Mars Perfect Ending
Part 6: 2003, Nightmare of Split National Championship
Part 7: 2004, Unbeaten Auburn Left Out in the Cold
Part 8: 2005, Perfect Season Ends With Epic at Rose Bowl
Part 9: 2006, Dawn of SEC's Reign in College Football
Part 10: 2007, LSU Goes "Undefeated in Regulation"
Part 11: 2008, SEC Wins in Polls, Then on the Field
Part 12: 2009, Alabama, Texas More Equal Than Others
Part 13: 2010, SEC and Pac-10 Finally Get Together
Part 14: 2011, LSU Robbed of Title in All-SEC Absurdity
Part 15: 2012, Notre Dame's Last Shot at BCS Glory
---
The 2013 season was a funeral procession for the Bowl Championship Series. By the time the season started, everyone knew the BCS was going away, to be replaced by the newfangled College Football Playoff. The rest was just details.
Throughout the season, little tidbits about the new CFP would trickle out—how the playoff teams would be picked, who will be on the 13-person committee, where would the championship game be held, among other things. While Condolezza Rice got plenty of love and hate for being on the exclusive selection committee, the final BCS season marched on, noisily and gloriously.
Alabama was presumed to be in the BCS title game for a shot to go for an unprecedented third consecutive national championship. Other than another shootout with Johnny Football early in the season, the Tide steamrolled through their schedule until a showdown with an unlikely obstacle in Auburn.
The Tigers, under first-year coach Gus Malzahn, had survived one close call after another—particularly against Georgia—to arrive at the Iron Bowl with their own shot at winning the SEC West. It took perhaps the best final play in the history of college football (sorry, The Play), but the now immortalized Kick Six effectively ended the Alabama dynasty.
After defeating Missouri in a wild conference championship game, Auburn carried with it two streaks into the BCS title game—the SEC's seven-year reign as BCS champions as well as the state of Alabama's four-year ownership of the crystal ball.
The man charged with ending those streaks happened to be intimately familiar with the SEC. Jimbo Fisher was the quarterbacks coach at Auburn and then an assistant under Nick Saban at LSU before being tasked to rebuilt a floundering former dynasty at Florida State. He launched a SEC-esque powerhouse in the ACC, with top athletes, a stout defense, and an irrepressible freshman quarterback named Jameis Winston.
While Winston encountered little resistance on the field in leading FSU to one rout after another, his season (and career) was put in jeopardy when a year-old allegation of sexual assault surfaced during the season. He was cleared just days before the ACC championship game, and he would go on to lead the 'Noles to a blowout of Duke and pick up the Heisman Trophy in the process.
The BCS era then ended on a high note. On a glorious January evening at the Rose Bowl, FSU charged back from an early 21-3 deficit and scored the winning touchdown with just 13 seconds left when Winston found Kelvin Benjamin in the back of the end zone. An old power that dominated at the advent of the BCS was back on top of college football again, just in time for the dawn of a new era.
Final BCS standings: 1. Florida State, 2. Auburn, 3. Alabama, 4. Michigan State, 5. Stanford.
Likely four-team playoff: Florida State vs. Stanford; Auburn vs. Michigan State.
What would the committee do? They wouldn't say, but had the members revealed their hypothetical CFP matchups for 2013, we'd have gotten a good idea on just how much weight they would assign to winning the conference championship.
Controversies
Demise of non-AQ conferences: The formation of super-power conferences was probably the most significant legacy of the BCS. At the end of the era, there were just five major conferences, with all the also-rans picked clean.
Utah and TCU, both appeared in multiple BCS bowl games as non-AQ members, now reside in the Pac-12 and Big 12, respectively. Boise State's unique run as an annual BCS buster likely came to an end when coach Chris Petersen left for Washington. The former Big East is trying to stay relevant after rebranding as American Athletic, but it's susceptible to further poaching of its most high-profile members.
In 2013, both Fresno State and Northern Illinois made a run for a BCS bowl berth. Ultimately both teams lost a late-season game to blow their chances. But as an illustration of the gaps now exist between the haves and have-nots, both teams were unable to even come away with a win in second-tier bowl games.
Sugar Bowl takes OU over UO: Oregon had looked, for most of the season, the team most likely to challenge Alabama for the BCS title. Two late-season losses denied the Ducks a chance to win the Pac-12, though they were still very much in the hunt for a fifth consecutive BCS bowl berth.
At the end, politics trumped all other considerations. The Sugar Bowl, about to begin a relationship with the Big 12 in the CFP, opted to honor those ties a year early by taking Oklahoma to face Alabama. Oregon was left with an Alamo Bowl invitation to face Texas.
Despite predictions of a major blowout, the Sugar Bowl instead showcased a stunning upset. The huge underdog Sooners rattled Alabama early and held on late to end the Tide's season with two consecutive losses.
| Bowl | Score | Attendance | TV Rating |
| BCS Champ* | #1 Florida St. 34, #2 Auburn 31 | 94,208 | 14.8 |
| Rose Bowl | #4 Michigan St. 24, #5 Stanford 20 | 95,173 | 10.2 |
| Sugar Bowl | #11 Oklahoma 45, #3 Alabama 31 | 70,473 | 9.3 |
| Orange Bowl | #12 Clemson 40, #7 Ohio St. 35 | 72,080 | 6.7 |
| Fiesta Bowl | #15 UCF 52, #6 Baylor 42 | 65,172 | 6.6 |
Final analysis: Much derided and little loved, the BCS evolved over its 16-year existence to gain grudging legitimacy at the end. With the standings formula unchanged after the 2003 season, it was for the most part transparent and predictable.
The same cannot be said for the CFP, especially in its initial season of 2014, when little is known about the selection process, which will be entirely decided by the 13-person committee. Even with the promised release of four standings in the second half of the season, no one can be remotely sure how the four-team field will be chosen until it is revealed the day after the regular season ends.
For better or worse, the BCS made college football truly a national sport by intersecting regional interests throughout the regular season. And more importantly, it bestowed ever more clout and made enormous amounts of cash for the power conferences. For some, it was a "golden era" indeed.
Thursday, January 23, 2014
BCS Review Series: 2010, SEC and Pac-10 Finally Have a Date
Part 13 of a series: Over the next few weeks, I will be reviewing each of the 16 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. Here is a look back at who got lucky, who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear throughout December and January.
Part 1: 1998, A New Beginning for College Football
Part 2: 1999, FSU Ends Michael Vick's Quest for Perfection
Part 3: 2000, FSU-Miami Sows Seeds of Controversy
Part 4: 2001, Nebraska Fiasco Rocks College Football
Part 5: 2002, Controversy on Field Mars Perfect Ending
Part 6: 2003, Nightmare of Split National Championship
Part 7: 2004, Unbeaten Auburn Left Out in the Cold
Part 8: 2005, Perfect Season Ends With Epic at Rose Bowl
Part 9: 2006, Dawn of SEC's Reign in College Football
Part 10: 2007, LSU Goes "Undefeated in Regulation"
Part 11: 2008, SEC Wins in Polls, Then on the Field
Part 12: 2009, Alabama, Texas More Equal Than Others
---
Defending champion Alabama opened the 2010 season as the odds-on favorite to repeat, with Heisman-winning running back Mark Ingram and senior quarterback Greg McElroy both returning to lead a veteran team. But it was their in-state rival, Auburn, that grabbed the headlines and—ultimately—the crystal ball.
Behind rent-a-QB Cam Newton, who had been drummed out of Florida as Tim Tebow's backup, it was the Tigers who arrived at the Iron Bowl the day after Thanksgiving as the team ranked No. 1 with national championship aspirations. Auburn has had a few close calls—winning three games by a field goal—though nothing like the War Damn Miracle variety of 2013.
Behind McElroy's aerial assault, it looked like Alabama was going to shatter Auburn's dreams. The Tide went up 21-0 and were poised to make it 28-0, but they had to settle for a field goal and a 24-0 lead midway through the second quarter. That little crack was all the reprieve the Tigers needed, as Newton led a stunning comeback for a 28-27 victory and a spot in the SEC Championship Game.
But South Carolina was less of an obstacle in Auburn's way of a national championship than the NCAA, which was probing all season just how Newton landed on The Plains. Newton's father, Cecil, had shopped his son's services for upwards of $180,000 to Mississippi State. But the NCAA decided that since no money changed hands, everything was kosher and cleared Newton to play for the SEC title three days before the game.
Once there, the Tigers mauled South Carolina, setting up the first—and as it turned out, only—matchup between SEC and Pac-10 teams in the BCS Championship Game. Oregon had obliterated all of its opponents other than one close-call at Cal. And the title game would be decided on one bizarre play.
Instead of an expected shootout, the game at the University of Phoenix Stadium was a defensive struggle. With the score tied at 19-19 and less than two minutes to go, Auburn running back Michael Dyer was stopped after an apparent short gain. But because his knee didn't touch the ground, Dyer got up and alertly turned it into a 37-yard play that put Auburn in field-goal range.
Wes Byrum's 22-yard kick as time expired gave Auburn a 22-19 victory and the fifth consecutive BCS title for the SEC. The Tigers' reign was short-lived—as was widely expected—with Newton bolting for the NFL after just one season. Dyer would be booted off the team the following season (ending up at Louisville in 2013 after a year out of football), and head coach Gene Chizik was fired just two seasons later—after a 3-9 campaign in 2012. He was replaced by the offensive mastermind of the 2010 team, Gus Malzahn, who would turn around Auburn faster than you can say "Kick Six."
The game also marked just the third—and last—BCS title game appearance for the Pac-10, which would embark on an ambitious realignment gambit that nearly obliterated college football as we knew it.
Final BCS Standings: 1. Auburn, 2. Oregon, 3. TCU.
Likely four-team playoff: Auburn vs. Wisconsin; Oregon vs. TCU
Although Stanford was ranked ahead of Wisconsin, the Cardinal probably would've been kept out of the playoff because they did not win the conference.
Controversies
TCU in the Rose Bowl: For a second consecutive year, TCU finished the season undefeated but was denied a shot at playing for the BCS championship. The Horned Frogs came agonizingly close, as they'd become the first non-AQ team to play for the title had Alabama held on to win the Iron Bowl.
They did get a decent consolation prize, though. Per a new agreement with the BCS, the Rose Bowl must now take a non-AQ team once if it's available in the final four-year cycle of the BCS. Because of this provision, TCU was bound for Pasadena to face Wisconsin while Pac-10 runner-up Stanford was dispatched to the Orange Bowl. TCU beat the Big Ten champ in a thriller and finished second in the final AP poll.
Boise State snubbed, Again: The Broncos were neck-and-neck with TCU for much of the season in the BCS standings, but only one team was guaranteed to earn a BCS automatic berth. As was the case in 2009, though, the BCS probably wouldn't dare to snub either team had they both finished in the top five of the final standings.
But everything went "poof!" for Boise on the same night Auburn stormed back to win the Iron Bowl. Had the Tigers lost that game, the Broncos would have not only had a chance for a BCS bowl berth, but maybe even a spot in the national title game, too.
Perhaps a bit dispirited by Auburn's comeback, the Broncos struggled against the Colin Kaepernick-led Nevada team all night. But still, they just needed a Kyle Brotzman 25-yard chip shot to seal the win as time expired. He missed, and after the Broncos lost in overtime, they were out of the BCS picture altogether—despite finishing 10th in the final BCS standings and ahead of both the ACC and Big East champs.
Final analysis: The 2010 season marked the end of an era as conference realignment would sweep through college football in the offseason.
First, Nebraska departed the Big 12 for the Big Ten. Then, the Pac-10 came up with an audacious plan that threatened to break apart the Big 12, with Texas and Oklahoma the prime targets for poaching. The conference came up with a plan to save itself, but its preferential treatment for the Longhorns in the scheme enraged rival Texas A&M to bolt for the SEC a year later.
The realignment frenzy had its roots in the formation of the BCS, as the gulf between the haves and have-nots greatly expanded in the preceding decade. Tempted by the vast amounts of TV and bowl dollars, many schools abandoned a century of tradition to find greener pastures.
Part 1: 1998, A New Beginning for College Football
Part 2: 1999, FSU Ends Michael Vick's Quest for Perfection
Part 3: 2000, FSU-Miami Sows Seeds of Controversy
Part 4: 2001, Nebraska Fiasco Rocks College Football
Part 5: 2002, Controversy on Field Mars Perfect Ending
Part 6: 2003, Nightmare of Split National Championship
Part 7: 2004, Unbeaten Auburn Left Out in the Cold
Part 8: 2005, Perfect Season Ends With Epic at Rose Bowl
Part 9: 2006, Dawn of SEC's Reign in College Football
Part 10: 2007, LSU Goes "Undefeated in Regulation"
Part 11: 2008, SEC Wins in Polls, Then on the Field
Part 12: 2009, Alabama, Texas More Equal Than Others
---
Defending champion Alabama opened the 2010 season as the odds-on favorite to repeat, with Heisman-winning running back Mark Ingram and senior quarterback Greg McElroy both returning to lead a veteran team. But it was their in-state rival, Auburn, that grabbed the headlines and—ultimately—the crystal ball.
Behind rent-a-QB Cam Newton, who had been drummed out of Florida as Tim Tebow's backup, it was the Tigers who arrived at the Iron Bowl the day after Thanksgiving as the team ranked No. 1 with national championship aspirations. Auburn has had a few close calls—winning three games by a field goal—though nothing like the War Damn Miracle variety of 2013.
Behind McElroy's aerial assault, it looked like Alabama was going to shatter Auburn's dreams. The Tide went up 21-0 and were poised to make it 28-0, but they had to settle for a field goal and a 24-0 lead midway through the second quarter. That little crack was all the reprieve the Tigers needed, as Newton led a stunning comeback for a 28-27 victory and a spot in the SEC Championship Game.
But South Carolina was less of an obstacle in Auburn's way of a national championship than the NCAA, which was probing all season just how Newton landed on The Plains. Newton's father, Cecil, had shopped his son's services for upwards of $180,000 to Mississippi State. But the NCAA decided that since no money changed hands, everything was kosher and cleared Newton to play for the SEC title three days before the game.
Once there, the Tigers mauled South Carolina, setting up the first—and as it turned out, only—matchup between SEC and Pac-10 teams in the BCS Championship Game. Oregon had obliterated all of its opponents other than one close-call at Cal. And the title game would be decided on one bizarre play.
Instead of an expected shootout, the game at the University of Phoenix Stadium was a defensive struggle. With the score tied at 19-19 and less than two minutes to go, Auburn running back Michael Dyer was stopped after an apparent short gain. But because his knee didn't touch the ground, Dyer got up and alertly turned it into a 37-yard play that put Auburn in field-goal range.
Wes Byrum's 22-yard kick as time expired gave Auburn a 22-19 victory and the fifth consecutive BCS title for the SEC. The Tigers' reign was short-lived—as was widely expected—with Newton bolting for the NFL after just one season. Dyer would be booted off the team the following season (ending up at Louisville in 2013 after a year out of football), and head coach Gene Chizik was fired just two seasons later—after a 3-9 campaign in 2012. He was replaced by the offensive mastermind of the 2010 team, Gus Malzahn, who would turn around Auburn faster than you can say "Kick Six."
The game also marked just the third—and last—BCS title game appearance for the Pac-10, which would embark on an ambitious realignment gambit that nearly obliterated college football as we knew it.
Final BCS Standings: 1. Auburn, 2. Oregon, 3. TCU.
Likely four-team playoff: Auburn vs. Wisconsin; Oregon vs. TCU
Although Stanford was ranked ahead of Wisconsin, the Cardinal probably would've been kept out of the playoff because they did not win the conference.
Controversies
TCU in the Rose Bowl: For a second consecutive year, TCU finished the season undefeated but was denied a shot at playing for the BCS championship. The Horned Frogs came agonizingly close, as they'd become the first non-AQ team to play for the title had Alabama held on to win the Iron Bowl.
They did get a decent consolation prize, though. Per a new agreement with the BCS, the Rose Bowl must now take a non-AQ team once if it's available in the final four-year cycle of the BCS. Because of this provision, TCU was bound for Pasadena to face Wisconsin while Pac-10 runner-up Stanford was dispatched to the Orange Bowl. TCU beat the Big Ten champ in a thriller and finished second in the final AP poll.
Boise State snubbed, Again: The Broncos were neck-and-neck with TCU for much of the season in the BCS standings, but only one team was guaranteed to earn a BCS automatic berth. As was the case in 2009, though, the BCS probably wouldn't dare to snub either team had they both finished in the top five of the final standings.
But everything went "poof!" for Boise on the same night Auburn stormed back to win the Iron Bowl. Had the Tigers lost that game, the Broncos would have not only had a chance for a BCS bowl berth, but maybe even a spot in the national title game, too.
Perhaps a bit dispirited by Auburn's comeback, the Broncos struggled against the Colin Kaepernick-led Nevada team all night. But still, they just needed a Kyle Brotzman 25-yard chip shot to seal the win as time expired. He missed, and after the Broncos lost in overtime, they were out of the BCS picture altogether—despite finishing 10th in the final BCS standings and ahead of both the ACC and Big East champs.
| Bowl | Score | Attendance | TV Rating |
| BCS Champ* | #1 Auburn 22, #2 Oregon 19 | 78,603 | 15.3 |
| Rose Bowl | #3 TCU 21, #5 Wisconsin 19 | 94,118 | 11.3 |
| Sugar Bowl | #6 Ohio St. 31, #8 Arkansas 26 | 73,879 | 8.2 |
| Orange Bowl | #4 Stanford 40, #13 Va. Tech 12 | 65,453 | 6.8 |
| Fiesta Bowl | #7 Oklahoma 48, UConn 20 | 67,232 | 6.2 |
Final analysis: The 2010 season marked the end of an era as conference realignment would sweep through college football in the offseason.
First, Nebraska departed the Big 12 for the Big Ten. Then, the Pac-10 came up with an audacious plan that threatened to break apart the Big 12, with Texas and Oklahoma the prime targets for poaching. The conference came up with a plan to save itself, but its preferential treatment for the Longhorns in the scheme enraged rival Texas A&M to bolt for the SEC a year later.
The realignment frenzy had its roots in the formation of the BCS, as the gulf between the haves and have-nots greatly expanded in the preceding decade. Tempted by the vast amounts of TV and bowl dollars, many schools abandoned a century of tradition to find greener pastures.
Friday, December 20, 2013
BCS Review Series: 2001, Nebraska Fiasco Rocks BCS
Part 4 of a series: Over the next few weeks, I will be reviewing each of the 16 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. Here is a look back at who got lucky, who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear throughout December and January.
Part 1: 1998, A New Beginning for College Football
Part 2: 1999, FSU Ends Michael Vick's Quest for Perfection
Part 3: 2000, FSU-Miami Sows Seeds of Controversy
---
If the BCS was shaken by the 2000 controversy, then it was rocked by an earthquake in 2001.
Heading into the final weeks of the regular season, it appeared that a Miami-Nebraska showdown in the Rose Bowl would be inevitable. After Nebraska's 20-10 win over previously unbeaten Oklahoma in late October, the 'Canes and Huskers were ranked 1-2 for the next four consecutive weeks, with non-BCS Brigham Young the only other unbeaten team.
Then a series of upsets changed everything.
Heading into their final regular-season game, the Huskers still needed a victory in Boulder to clinch the Big 12 North against two-loss Colorado. But the Buffaloes didn't comply, and thrashed Nebraska, 62-36, in a game that wasn't even that close. Nebraska tumbled to No. 6 in the polls and its national title aspirations seemingly squashed.
After Nebraska's loss, Florida claimed the all-important No. 2 spot. The Gators just needed to beat Tennessee to secure a berth in the SEC championship game. Annually played in the third week of September, the Florida-Tennessee game in 2001 was postponed because of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. The Vols surprised Florida with a 34-32 victory, in what turned out to be Steve Spurrier's final regular-season game as Gators coach.
The victory catapulted Tennessee from No. 6 to No. 2 in the BCS standings after No. 4 Colorado upset No. 3 Texas in the Big XII title game. Now all the Vols had to do was beat three-loss LSU in the SEC title game to secure their second BCS title game appearance in four years.
In the meantime, left on the sideline seething was Oregon. The Ducks, with their only defeat to two-loss Stanford, were No. 3 in both polls. Yet, they were ranked only No. 5 in the BCS standings, behind two-loss Colorado, who had been beaten by Fresno State and also Texas in the regular season. The Buffs, after winning the rematch against the Longhorns, had their issue, too: Somehow, they were ranked No. 4 in the BCS, behind the Nebraska team that had been idle since being annihilated in Boulder.
The BCS would've dodged a bullet if Tennessee could just take care of business against Nick Saban's LSU Tigers, who had been beaten in Knoxville earlier in the season. But LSU didn't oblige, pulling out a 31-20 victory in the SEC title game, completing the frenzied final three weeks of the season with one more upset.
So who was going to play undefeated Miami? Oregon, now No. 2 in both polls, seemed to have the strongest argument. Colorado, with an impressive late-season run but two losses, thought it deserved a shot, too. The team that really shouldn't be in the discussion was Nebraska, which had snuck back up to No. 4 after the spate of late-season upsets.
But it was Nebraska that claimed the No. 2 spot in the final BCS standings, edging out Colorado by five-hundredth (.05) of a percentage point. Oregon, with a low computer average and hampered by its strength-of-schedule rating, was a distant fourth and never had a chance.
The Buffaloes howled for weeks after narrowly losing out. But the truth is that they were even that close to Nebraska only because of the new "quality win" component, added after the 2000 season as make-good for Miami's snub. Had the 2000 formula been applied, Colorado would've been fourth, behind Nebraska by nearly two full points and also Oregon as well.
At the end, the Ducks were really the aggrieved party, and they proved it by destroying Colorado, 38-16, in the Fiesta Bowl. Miami finished its undefeated season in the Rose Bowl with a ho-hum 34-14 victory over Nebraska, universally disparaged as being undeserving. While the Hurricanes celebrated their national championship, the BCS was sent back to the drawing board once again.
Complete Final BCS Standings
Alternative Methods
Using post-2003 formula: 1. Miami, 2. Oregon, 3. Nebraska, 4. Colorado. (Oregon would've been a comfortable No. 2, and there would've been little controversy)
Using 1998-2000 formula: 1. Miami, 2. Nebraska, 3. Oregon, 4. Colorado. (Nebraska would've been well ahead of Oregon)
Likely four-team playoff: Miami vs. Nebraska; Oregon vs. Colorado.
With a slew of upsets in conference championship games, these four teams actually stood far apart from the rest of the pack, even if Nebraska failed to win its division. No. 5 Florida also failed to win its division after losing to Tennessee in the aforementioned SEC East showdown.
Controversies
Other than Nebraska getting into the national championship game in the Rose Bowl, not really. (But that's like saying 'other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?'.) The only other one-loss teams from major conferences, Illinois (Big Ten) and Maryland (ACC), were both throttled in BCS bowl games. No. 5 Florida was the only at-large selection, and as it turned out, sent out coach Spurrier to the NFL with a 56-23 rout of Maryland at the Orange Bowl.
2001 BCS Bowl Matchups
BCS formula review: Wes Colley (of Colley Matrix) and Peter Wolfe were added to the computer ratings, replacing the New York Times and Richard Dunkel. The move ostensibly was to lessen the impact of margin of victory in computer rankings. Of the eight ratings for each team, the highest and lowest were thrown out and the remainder averaged.
Also, a "quality win" component was added to the team's final BCS score total, in response to Miami's being snubbed in 2000. This scheme called for teams to receive bonus points by beating other teams in the final BCS top 15. As a result, Colorado's late-season wins over Nebraska and Texas gave it a boost of 2.3 points, nearly knocking Nebraska out of the No. 2 spot.
Final analysis: The 2001 mess probably should've been a wake-up call for the BCS to completely revamp its formula. Yet, the powers-that-be continued to tinker with knee-jerk and piecemeal "fixes" that inevitably resulted in another controversy. The next season brought a big relief—through no credit to the BCS system—but the calm would prove short-lived.
Part 1: 1998, A New Beginning for College Football
Part 2: 1999, FSU Ends Michael Vick's Quest for Perfection
Part 3: 2000, FSU-Miami Sows Seeds of Controversy
---
If the BCS was shaken by the 2000 controversy, then it was rocked by an earthquake in 2001.
Heading into the final weeks of the regular season, it appeared that a Miami-Nebraska showdown in the Rose Bowl would be inevitable. After Nebraska's 20-10 win over previously unbeaten Oklahoma in late October, the 'Canes and Huskers were ranked 1-2 for the next four consecutive weeks, with non-BCS Brigham Young the only other unbeaten team.
Then a series of upsets changed everything.
Heading into their final regular-season game, the Huskers still needed a victory in Boulder to clinch the Big 12 North against two-loss Colorado. But the Buffaloes didn't comply, and thrashed Nebraska, 62-36, in a game that wasn't even that close. Nebraska tumbled to No. 6 in the polls and its national title aspirations seemingly squashed.
After Nebraska's loss, Florida claimed the all-important No. 2 spot. The Gators just needed to beat Tennessee to secure a berth in the SEC championship game. Annually played in the third week of September, the Florida-Tennessee game in 2001 was postponed because of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. The Vols surprised Florida with a 34-32 victory, in what turned out to be Steve Spurrier's final regular-season game as Gators coach.
The victory catapulted Tennessee from No. 6 to No. 2 in the BCS standings after No. 4 Colorado upset No. 3 Texas in the Big XII title game. Now all the Vols had to do was beat three-loss LSU in the SEC title game to secure their second BCS title game appearance in four years.
In the meantime, left on the sideline seething was Oregon. The Ducks, with their only defeat to two-loss Stanford, were No. 3 in both polls. Yet, they were ranked only No. 5 in the BCS standings, behind two-loss Colorado, who had been beaten by Fresno State and also Texas in the regular season. The Buffs, after winning the rematch against the Longhorns, had their issue, too: Somehow, they were ranked No. 4 in the BCS, behind the Nebraska team that had been idle since being annihilated in Boulder.
The BCS would've dodged a bullet if Tennessee could just take care of business against Nick Saban's LSU Tigers, who had been beaten in Knoxville earlier in the season. But LSU didn't oblige, pulling out a 31-20 victory in the SEC title game, completing the frenzied final three weeks of the season with one more upset.
So who was going to play undefeated Miami? Oregon, now No. 2 in both polls, seemed to have the strongest argument. Colorado, with an impressive late-season run but two losses, thought it deserved a shot, too. The team that really shouldn't be in the discussion was Nebraska, which had snuck back up to No. 4 after the spate of late-season upsets.
But it was Nebraska that claimed the No. 2 spot in the final BCS standings, edging out Colorado by five-hundredth (.05) of a percentage point. Oregon, with a low computer average and hampered by its strength-of-schedule rating, was a distant fourth and never had a chance.
The Buffaloes howled for weeks after narrowly losing out. But the truth is that they were even that close to Nebraska only because of the new "quality win" component, added after the 2000 season as make-good for Miami's snub. Had the 2000 formula been applied, Colorado would've been fourth, behind Nebraska by nearly two full points and also Oregon as well.
At the end, the Ducks were really the aggrieved party, and they proved it by destroying Colorado, 38-16, in the Fiesta Bowl. Miami finished its undefeated season in the Rose Bowl with a ho-hum 34-14 victory over Nebraska, universally disparaged as being undeserving. While the Hurricanes celebrated their national championship, the BCS was sent back to the drawing board once again.
Complete Final BCS Standings
| Rank | Team | Poll Avg. | Computer | SoS | Loss | Q-W | BCS |
| 1 | Miami | 1 | 1.00 | 18 | 0 | -0.1 | 2.62 |
| 2 | Nebraska | 4 | 2.17 | 14 | 1 | -0.5 | 7.23 |
| 3 | Colorado | 3 | 4.50 | 2 | 2 | -2.3 | 7.28 |
| 4 | Oregon | 2 | 4.83 | 31 | 1 | -0.4 | 8.67 |
Alternative Methods
Using post-2003 formula: 1. Miami, 2. Oregon, 3. Nebraska, 4. Colorado. (Oregon would've been a comfortable No. 2, and there would've been little controversy)
Using 1998-2000 formula: 1. Miami, 2. Nebraska, 3. Oregon, 4. Colorado. (Nebraska would've been well ahead of Oregon)
Likely four-team playoff: Miami vs. Nebraska; Oregon vs. Colorado.
With a slew of upsets in conference championship games, these four teams actually stood far apart from the rest of the pack, even if Nebraska failed to win its division. No. 5 Florida also failed to win its division after losing to Tennessee in the aforementioned SEC East showdown.
Controversies
Other than Nebraska getting into the national championship game in the Rose Bowl, not really. (But that's like saying 'other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?'.) The only other one-loss teams from major conferences, Illinois (Big Ten) and Maryland (ACC), were both throttled in BCS bowl games. No. 5 Florida was the only at-large selection, and as it turned out, sent out coach Spurrier to the NFL with a 56-23 rout of Maryland at the Orange Bowl.
2001 BCS Bowl Matchups
| Game | Score | Attendance | TV Rating |
| Rose Bowl* | #1 Miami 37, #2 Nebraska 14 | 93,781 | 13.9 |
| Fiesta Bowl | #4 Oregon 38, #3 Colorado 16 | 74,118 | 11.3 |
| Orange Bowl | #5 Florida 56, #10 Maryland 23 | 73,640 | 9.5 |
| Sugar Bowl | #13 LSU 47, #8 Illinois 34 | 77,688 | 8.6 |
BCS formula review: Wes Colley (of Colley Matrix) and Peter Wolfe were added to the computer ratings, replacing the New York Times and Richard Dunkel. The move ostensibly was to lessen the impact of margin of victory in computer rankings. Of the eight ratings for each team, the highest and lowest were thrown out and the remainder averaged.
Also, a "quality win" component was added to the team's final BCS score total, in response to Miami's being snubbed in 2000. This scheme called for teams to receive bonus points by beating other teams in the final BCS top 15. As a result, Colorado's late-season wins over Nebraska and Texas gave it a boost of 2.3 points, nearly knocking Nebraska out of the No. 2 spot.
Final analysis: The 2001 mess probably should've been a wake-up call for the BCS to completely revamp its formula. Yet, the powers-that-be continued to tinker with knee-jerk and piecemeal "fixes" that inevitably resulted in another controversy. The next season brought a big relief—through no credit to the BCS system—but the calm would prove short-lived.
Thursday, November 7, 2013
Big Thursday Night Shakes Up BCS
For the third time in five years, Stanford stunned an Oregon team with national championship aspirations. And for the second consecutive year, the Cardinal might have knocked the Ducks out of a Rose Bowl berth as well.
Stanford's upset victory, coupled with Baylor's pasting of Oklahoma in a pair of Thursday night top-10 showdowns, sent a shock wave through the top of the BCS even before the weekend begins. And they might have to cancel classes in Tallahassee and Columbus on Friday.
This much is clear: Alabama and Florida State, atop the BCS standings as of last week, will control their respective destinies. If either team wins out, it'll be playing in Pasadena on Jan. 6. Then after that, it gets a bit messy.
Ohio State is expected to move up to No. 3, but it can't comfortably count on being there as if it's in the on-deck circle, waiting for an Alabama or FSU loss to move into the BCS title game. There is a possibility that the Buckeyes might get jumped by Baylor, though it's a small one.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Stanford's upset victory, coupled with Baylor's pasting of Oklahoma in a pair of Thursday night top-10 showdowns, sent a shock wave through the top of the BCS even before the weekend begins. And they might have to cancel classes in Tallahassee and Columbus on Friday.
This much is clear: Alabama and Florida State, atop the BCS standings as of last week, will control their respective destinies. If either team wins out, it'll be playing in Pasadena on Jan. 6. Then after that, it gets a bit messy.
Ohio State is expected to move up to No. 3, but it can't comfortably count on being there as if it's in the on-deck circle, waiting for an Alabama or FSU loss to move into the BCS title game. There is a possibility that the Buckeyes might get jumped by Baylor, though it's a small one.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Sunday, November 3, 2013
Math Not There for FSU to Get By Oregon
For a third straight week, the No. 2 ranking in the BCS standings changes hands, with Florida State narrowly edging Oregon for the spot behind Alabama.
But just like two weeks ago, the Seminoles' stay at No. 2 will be short-lived—if Oregon wins its Thursday night showdown against No. 5 Stanford. And should the Ducks stay unbeaten, they will be pulling away from the Seminoles in the standings the rest of the season, no matter what else happens.
The math just isn't there for Florida State.
FSU has now defeated two unbeaten top 10 teams in three weeks, and gained possibly everything it could from the voters and the computers. The Seminoles are the top-ranked team by the computers this week, with five No. 1s out of the six BCS computers. They also cut into the vote shares of Alabama and Oregon in both polls, even picking up five first-place votes (where they had none last week).
Yet, even with all those gains, Florida State will not get into the BCS title game without either an Alabama or an Oregon loss. Here's the story behind the math:
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
But just like two weeks ago, the Seminoles' stay at No. 2 will be short-lived—if Oregon wins its Thursday night showdown against No. 5 Stanford. And should the Ducks stay unbeaten, they will be pulling away from the Seminoles in the standings the rest of the season, no matter what else happens.
The math just isn't there for Florida State.
FSU has now defeated two unbeaten top 10 teams in three weeks, and gained possibly everything it could from the voters and the computers. The Seminoles are the top-ranked team by the computers this week, with five No. 1s out of the six BCS computers. They also cut into the vote shares of Alabama and Oregon in both polls, even picking up five first-place votes (where they had none last week).
Yet, even with all those gains, Florida State will not get into the BCS title game without either an Alabama or an Oregon loss. Here's the story behind the math:
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Saturday, November 2, 2013
FSU Closing In on Oregon, But It'll Be Short-Lived
Half of the top 10 teams in last week's BCS standings were idle this week, and other than Texas Tech losing in a mild upset, it was a weekend of mostly ho-hum affairs.
(Thank you, Northwestern, for making a complete hash out of your last defensive stand so we could have our YouTube and gif fix for the day, though.)
Florida State won the day's most high-profile showdown, a 41-14 victory over No. 7 Miami. But the Seminoles were favored by three touchdowns so even an impressive win over their intrastate rival might not be enough for them to get into the all-important top two spots in the next BCS standings.
The Noles will close the gap on Oregon and make it very close for the No. 2 spot, thanks to the boost they'll get from the computers. Florida State probably will check in at No. 1 in five of the six BCS computers, with Richard Billingsley the exception. The Noles will need to sway about a dozen voters or so in the two polls to pull ahead of the Ducks for the week.
But even if they move into No. 2 in the next standings, they'll stay there for exactly one week if both Oregon and Alabama win their upcoming showdowns next week. Should the Tide and Ducks go on to beat LSU and Stanford, respectively, and run the table after that, FSU will have reached its high-water mark as it won't have another game that will provide much boost the rest of the season, and that includes the ACC Championship Game.
So with the exception of Miami, the projected BCS standings will look very similar to last week's:
Projected BCS Standings:
1. Alabama, 2. Oregon, 3. Florida State, 4. Ohio State, 5. Stanford, 6. Baylor, 7. Clemson, 8. Missouri, 9. Oklahoma, 10. Auburn.
11. Miami (Fla.), 12. LSU, 13. South Carolina, 14. Texas A&M, 15. Oklahoma State, 16. Fresno State, 17. Northern Illinois, 18. UCLA, 19. Louisville, 20. Michigan State.
21. Central Florida, 22. Texas Tech, 23. Notre Dame, 24. Arizona State, 25. Wisconsin.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
(Thank you, Northwestern, for making a complete hash out of your last defensive stand so we could have our YouTube and gif fix for the day, though.)
Florida State won the day's most high-profile showdown, a 41-14 victory over No. 7 Miami. But the Seminoles were favored by three touchdowns so even an impressive win over their intrastate rival might not be enough for them to get into the all-important top two spots in the next BCS standings.
The Noles will close the gap on Oregon and make it very close for the No. 2 spot, thanks to the boost they'll get from the computers. Florida State probably will check in at No. 1 in five of the six BCS computers, with Richard Billingsley the exception. The Noles will need to sway about a dozen voters or so in the two polls to pull ahead of the Ducks for the week.
But even if they move into No. 2 in the next standings, they'll stay there for exactly one week if both Oregon and Alabama win their upcoming showdowns next week. Should the Tide and Ducks go on to beat LSU and Stanford, respectively, and run the table after that, FSU will have reached its high-water mark as it won't have another game that will provide much boost the rest of the season, and that includes the ACC Championship Game.
So with the exception of Miami, the projected BCS standings will look very similar to last week's:
Projected BCS Standings:
1. Alabama, 2. Oregon, 3. Florida State, 4. Ohio State, 5. Stanford, 6. Baylor, 7. Clemson, 8. Missouri, 9. Oklahoma, 10. Auburn.
11. Miami (Fla.), 12. LSU, 13. South Carolina, 14. Texas A&M, 15. Oklahoma State, 16. Fresno State, 17. Northern Illinois, 18. UCLA, 19. Louisville, 20. Michigan State.
21. Central Florida, 22. Texas Tech, 23. Notre Dame, 24. Arizona State, 25. Wisconsin.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Sunday, October 27, 2013
Alabama-Oregon Title Bout Seems Inevitable
With still six weeks left on the season, it looks increasingly like a BCS Championship Game featuring Alabama and Oregon will be inevitable.
Everybody else is just playing for a BCS bowl berth.
Unless either Alabama or Oregon loses, none of the other teams will have a shot at cracking the top two spots in the final BCS standings. That includes the other six teams currently unbeaten as well as any team already with at least one loss.
But before you make travel plans for the Tide-Ducks showdown in Pasadena on Jan. 6, realize this: The teams most likely to go through the rest of the regular season unscathed are not the occupants of the top two spots in the latest BCS standings. If going purely on the probability of least likely to lose, you might end up with Florida State-Ohio State.
Let's assess the prospects of the top contenders:
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Everybody else is just playing for a BCS bowl berth.
Unless either Alabama or Oregon loses, none of the other teams will have a shot at cracking the top two spots in the final BCS standings. That includes the other six teams currently unbeaten as well as any team already with at least one loss.
But before you make travel plans for the Tide-Ducks showdown in Pasadena on Jan. 6, realize this: The teams most likely to go through the rest of the regular season unscathed are not the occupants of the top two spots in the latest BCS standings. If going purely on the probability of least likely to lose, you might end up with Florida State-Ohio State.
Let's assess the prospects of the top contenders:
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Saturday, October 26, 2013
Oregon Jumps Florida State for No. 2 Spot
Missouri's double-overtime loss to South Carolina reduced the ranks of BCS contenders by one, and to some extent it solidified the pecking order for the teams vying for a shot at the national championship.
With Texas Tech also losing, there are now eight undefeated teams—and just six from BCS conferences. Only the ACC still has multiple unbeaten teams, but that will change next week when Florida State hosts Miami in the biggest game in this rivalry since 2000, when the Hurricanes were still in the Big East.
Florida State will come into the game ranked No. 3 in the BCS standings, having ceded the second spot to Oregon based on our projections. Thanks to a 42-14 victory over UCLA, the Ducks will gain enough in the computer rankings to overtake the Seminoles but won't surpass No. 1 Alabama.
Projected BCS standings:
1. Alabama, 2. Oregon, 3. Florida State, 4. Ohio State, 5. Stanford, 6. Baylor, 7. Miami (Fla.), 8. Clemson, 9. Missouri, 10. Oklahoma.
11. Auburn, 12. LSU, 13. Texas Tech, 14. Texas A&M, 15. Northern Illinois, 16. South Carolina, 17. UCLA, 18. Fresno State, 19. Oklahoma State, 20. Louisville.
Others: Michigan, Central Florida, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Michigan State.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
With Texas Tech also losing, there are now eight undefeated teams—and just six from BCS conferences. Only the ACC still has multiple unbeaten teams, but that will change next week when Florida State hosts Miami in the biggest game in this rivalry since 2000, when the Hurricanes were still in the Big East.
Florida State will come into the game ranked No. 3 in the BCS standings, having ceded the second spot to Oregon based on our projections. Thanks to a 42-14 victory over UCLA, the Ducks will gain enough in the computer rankings to overtake the Seminoles but won't surpass No. 1 Alabama.
Projected BCS standings:
1. Alabama, 2. Oregon, 3. Florida State, 4. Ohio State, 5. Stanford, 6. Baylor, 7. Miami (Fla.), 8. Clemson, 9. Missouri, 10. Oklahoma.
11. Auburn, 12. LSU, 13. Texas Tech, 14. Texas A&M, 15. Northern Illinois, 16. South Carolina, 17. UCLA, 18. Fresno State, 19. Oklahoma State, 20. Louisville.
Others: Michigan, Central Florida, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Michigan State.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Sunday, October 20, 2013
FSU vs. Oregon: Who's the True No. 2?
Florida State and Oregon are running neck-and-neck after the initial release of the official BCS standings, with the Seminoles nudging just ahead for the No. 2 spot behind Alabama. Thanks to an impressive beatdown of Clemson, Florida State rode its superior computer rankings past Oregon.
But that's not going to last.
If both teams run the table the rest of the year and finish the season undefeated (and assuming Alabama also does so), Oregon will have the No. 2 ranking and its second BCS title game appearance in four years. A 13-0 Ducks simply will not be supplanted by Florida State, or anyone else.
Oregon will see its computer rankings improve the next two weeks if it were to defeat Stanford and UCLA, two teams currently ranked among the top 12. The Ducks also have the benefit of playing in the Pac-12, ranked either the top or second-best conference by the computers. And finally, the Ducks are a solid No. 2 in both the Coaches and Harris polls, and that position will only be more entrenched as long as they keep winning.
That leaves Florida State, among several other teams, on the outside looking in. And here are the prospects for these teams in their quest to get into the BCS Championship Game:
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
But that's not going to last.
If both teams run the table the rest of the year and finish the season undefeated (and assuming Alabama also does so), Oregon will have the No. 2 ranking and its second BCS title game appearance in four years. A 13-0 Ducks simply will not be supplanted by Florida State, or anyone else.
Oregon will see its computer rankings improve the next two weeks if it were to defeat Stanford and UCLA, two teams currently ranked among the top 12. The Ducks also have the benefit of playing in the Pac-12, ranked either the top or second-best conference by the computers. And finally, the Ducks are a solid No. 2 in both the Coaches and Harris polls, and that position will only be more entrenched as long as they keep winning.
That leaves Florida State, among several other teams, on the outside looking in. And here are the prospects for these teams in their quest to get into the BCS Championship Game:
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Saturday, October 19, 2013
Florida State Noses By Oregon for No. 2
On the eve of the release of the season's first official BCS standings, upsets ruled the day, as half of the Top 10 teams in last week's simulated BCS standings went down in defeat. The trend, in fact, started Friday night, when Central Florida dumped Louisville.
Five ranked SEC teams also lost, including Top 10 teams LSU and Texas A&M, against conference foes. This fashions an entirely new Top 10, with several unbeaten teams finally breaking through into the top of the standings. All told, there are just 10 unbeaten teams remaining in FBS after Saturday.
But the most surprising development may be Florida State's ascension to No. 2, narrowly edging Oregon. The Seminoles scored an impressive victory at Clemson, which was ranked No. 3 last week. By picking up a considerable number of vote shares, as well as the No. 1 ranking in the computers, FSU should have a razor-thin margin over the Ducks.
Projected BCS Standings:
1. Alabama, 2. Florida State, 3. Oregon, 4. Ohio State, 5. Missouri, 6. Baylor, 7. Stanford, 8. Clemson, 9. Miami (Fla.), 10. UCLA.
11. LSU, 12. Texas A&M, 13. Texas Tech, 14. South Carolina, 15. Oklahoma, 16. Auburn, 17. Virginia Tech, 18. Northern Illinois, 19. Louisville, 20. Fresno State.
Others: Oklahoma State, Georgia, Nebraska, Oregon State, Michigan.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Five ranked SEC teams also lost, including Top 10 teams LSU and Texas A&M, against conference foes. This fashions an entirely new Top 10, with several unbeaten teams finally breaking through into the top of the standings. All told, there are just 10 unbeaten teams remaining in FBS after Saturday.
But the most surprising development may be Florida State's ascension to No. 2, narrowly edging Oregon. The Seminoles scored an impressive victory at Clemson, which was ranked No. 3 last week. By picking up a considerable number of vote shares, as well as the No. 1 ranking in the computers, FSU should have a razor-thin margin over the Ducks.
Projected BCS Standings:
1. Alabama, 2. Florida State, 3. Oregon, 4. Ohio State, 5. Missouri, 6. Baylor, 7. Stanford, 8. Clemson, 9. Miami (Fla.), 10. UCLA.
11. LSU, 12. Texas A&M, 13. Texas Tech, 14. South Carolina, 15. Oklahoma, 16. Auburn, 17. Virginia Tech, 18. Northern Illinois, 19. Louisville, 20. Fresno State.
Others: Oklahoma State, Georgia, Nebraska, Oregon State, Michigan.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Sunday, October 13, 2013
Upsets Shape Up BCS Landscape
Three upsets on Saturday significantly shook up the BCS landscape, making the initial release of the standings next Sunday perhaps less intriguing. Now there's a clear separation of the top five teams from the rest of the pack, and two of them are scheduled for a titanic showdown next Saturday.
In the final simulated BCS standings, the top five teams are, in order: Alabama, Oregon, Clemson, Florida State and Ohio State. After that, there's a big dropoff to No. 6 LSU and the other assortment of one-loss and lesser unbeaten teams. (See BCS Guru for complete Week 7 simulated BCS standings, with an explanation of methodology below.)
The winner of next Saturday's Clemson-Florida State game will emerge as the primary challenger to the presumed Alabama-Oregon pairing, with Ohio State another slot behind. The way the polls and computer rankings are shaping up, the Tide and Ducks will meet in Pasadena on Jan. 6 this season as long as they both remain unbeaten—no matter what happens with the other teams.
Ohio State most likely will play in the BCS title game provided that there are no two unbeaten teams from the SEC, Pac-12 or ACC. The Buckeyes probably won't be jumped by a one-loss team, except for one—if LSU beats Alabama and Texas A&M to win the SEC West and then the conference championship, there is a possibility the Tigers could finish ahead of an unbeaten Buckeyes team, though a remote one.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
In the final simulated BCS standings, the top five teams are, in order: Alabama, Oregon, Clemson, Florida State and Ohio State. After that, there's a big dropoff to No. 6 LSU and the other assortment of one-loss and lesser unbeaten teams. (See BCS Guru for complete Week 7 simulated BCS standings, with an explanation of methodology below.)
The winner of next Saturday's Clemson-Florida State game will emerge as the primary challenger to the presumed Alabama-Oregon pairing, with Ohio State another slot behind. The way the polls and computer rankings are shaping up, the Tide and Ducks will meet in Pasadena on Jan. 6 this season as long as they both remain unbeaten—no matter what happens with the other teams.
Ohio State most likely will play in the BCS title game provided that there are no two unbeaten teams from the SEC, Pac-12 or ACC. The Buckeyes probably won't be jumped by a one-loss team, except for one—if LSU beats Alabama and Texas A&M to win the SEC West and then the conference championship, there is a possibility the Tigers could finish ahead of an unbeaten Buckeyes team, though a remote one.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Saturday, October 12, 2013
Alabama Will Open as No. 1 ... Deal With It
When the first official BCS standings come out next Sunday, the suspense will involve the identity of the No. 2 team. It could be Oregon—which won impressively again—or the winner of next Saturday's Clemson-Florida State showdown.
But who's No. 1 will not be in doubt. But why should Alabama be automatically slotted into the top spot?
In this, the final year of the BCS era, the answer is simple. Until the Tide lose a game, no one else will have a chance to occupy the top of the BCS standings. They own the narrative, and therefore they own the votes.
Alabama certainly has won enough on the field to warrant the preferential treatment, but it also owes a big thanks to the successful decade-long effort by the SEC to master the BCS. Consider this: In both of the past two seasons, Alabama was chosen among a group of one-loss teams to play in the BCS National Championship Game against an undefeated foe. And the Tide were picked at the end despite a loss precisely because they spent most of the season at No. 1.
The top-ranked team always gets more benefit of the doubt from the poll voters, and in the BCS era after 2004 the polls always decided which teams play in the title game. Since the adoption of the current BCS formula nine years ago, every team that finished either first or second in the final polls played for the title. The computer rankings were completely irrelevant.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
But who's No. 1 will not be in doubt. But why should Alabama be automatically slotted into the top spot?
In this, the final year of the BCS era, the answer is simple. Until the Tide lose a game, no one else will have a chance to occupy the top of the BCS standings. They own the narrative, and therefore they own the votes.
Alabama certainly has won enough on the field to warrant the preferential treatment, but it also owes a big thanks to the successful decade-long effort by the SEC to master the BCS. Consider this: In both of the past two seasons, Alabama was chosen among a group of one-loss teams to play in the BCS National Championship Game against an undefeated foe. And the Tide were picked at the end despite a loss precisely because they spent most of the season at No. 1.
The top-ranked team always gets more benefit of the doubt from the poll voters, and in the BCS era after 2004 the polls always decided which teams play in the title game. Since the adoption of the current BCS formula nine years ago, every team that finished either first or second in the final polls played for the title. The computer rankings were completely irrelevant.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Monday, October 7, 2013
Clemson or Oregon? Who's Got the Inside Track?
Oregon was held to fewer than 60 points by Colorado in a 57-16 victory Saturday night. As a result, the Ducks were severely punished for that indiscretion and dropped to No. 3 in the latest simulated BCS standings.
Oregon fell behind Clemson, which gained just enough vote shares to jump into the slot behind Alabama. The Ducks' computer ratings took a hit after beating lightly-regarded Colorado, as margin of victory has no bearing on the BCS computers.
Florida State also moved up, to No. 5, after destroying previously-ranked Maryland, leapfrogging Ohio State, which also defeated a ranked team in Northwestern, though in less impressive fashion.
This sets up a gargantuan matchup between Clemson and Florida State in two weeks (assuming no #Clemsoning takes place next week against Boston College, while the 'Noles have a bye week), on the eve of the release of this year's initial BCS standings. But before we get to that, a more important question needs to be asked:
Between Clemson and Oregon, if both teams run the table and win their respective conference championships, which is more likely to finish No. 2 behind Alabama?
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Oregon fell behind Clemson, which gained just enough vote shares to jump into the slot behind Alabama. The Ducks' computer ratings took a hit after beating lightly-regarded Colorado, as margin of victory has no bearing on the BCS computers.
Florida State also moved up, to No. 5, after destroying previously-ranked Maryland, leapfrogging Ohio State, which also defeated a ranked team in Northwestern, though in less impressive fashion.
This sets up a gargantuan matchup between Clemson and Florida State in two weeks (assuming no #Clemsoning takes place next week against Boston College, while the 'Noles have a bye week), on the eve of the release of this year's initial BCS standings. But before we get to that, a more important question needs to be asked:
Between Clemson and Oregon, if both teams run the table and win their respective conference championships, which is more likely to finish No. 2 behind Alabama?
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
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