Showing posts with label Florida. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Florida. Show all posts

Thursday, January 16, 2014

BCS Review Series: 2008, SEC Claims High Ground in Narrative

Part 11 of a seriesOver the next few weeks, I will be reviewing each of the 16 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. Here is a look back at who got lucky, who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear throughout December and January.

Part 1: 1998, A New Beginning for College Football

Part 2: 1999, FSU Ends Michael Vick's Quest for Perfection

Part 3: 2000, FSU-Miami Sows Seeds of Controversy

Part 4: 2001, Nebraska Fiasco Rocks College Football

Part 5: 2002, Controversy On-Field Mars Perfect Ending

Part 6: 2003, Nightmare of Split National Championship

Part 7: 2004, Unbeaten Auburn Left Out in the Cold

Part 8: 2005, Perfect Season Ends With Epic at Rose Bowl

Part 9: 2006, Dawn of SEC's Reign in College Football

Part 10: 2007, LSU Goes "Undefeated in Regulation"

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Two consecutive blowout victories in the BCS championship game (both over Ohio State) helped to jump-start the narrative of SEC supremacy. Now self-branded as "the toughest conference in college football," the SEC's dominance in perception became that much more evident.

At the end of the regular season, seven BCS conference teams finished with one loss each, and two others—Utah and Boise State—went undefeated. But just as it was in 2007, when five major conference champions vied for one BCS title game slot, in 2008 the SEC came out on top yet again.

For the second time in three years, Florida made it to the BCS title game, this time despite a loss at home to Ole Miss. The Gators sunk to No. 15 in the BCS standings, all but seemingly out of it, after the late-September loss to the Rebels. Yet after defeating previously-unbeaten Alabama in the SEC title game, Florida had a date in Miami with Oklahoma in the BCS title game.

USC wasn't so lucky after also an early-September loss at Oregon State. The Trojans had opened the season with a resounding 35-3 pounding of No. 3 Ohio State at the Coliseum. But despite running the table the rest of the way—including three shutouts and five other games where they gave up just one score—that lone loss to the Beavers proved fatal to their title aspirations.

The same was the case for Penn State, which suffered its lone loss on a last-second field at Iowa in early November. It was the second time in four years that Joe Paterno's team was one play away from a perfect regular season. And just like in 2005, the Nittany Lions never got a whiff of the BCS title game.

Then there was the trio of Big 12 teams that managed to deal each other a single loss in a Reservoir Dogs-style Mexican standoff. Texas defeated Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout. Texas Tech shot down the Longhorns on a last-second TD catch by Michael Crabtree. Then Oklahoma slaughtered the Red Raiders to complete the three-way tie for first place in the Big 12 South.


The Sooners edged Texas (and Texas Tech) in the penultimate BCS standings, thanks entirely to superior computer rankings, earning a trip to the Big 12 title game, where they routed Missouri to earn a spot in the BCS title game. Longhorns coach Mack Brown, who had swiped a Rose Bowl berth in 2004 when the BCS standings worked in his favor, now had his comeuppance.

At the end, the team that had the most amount of legitimate grievance might've been Utah, which finished the season as the lone undefeated team. The Utes dominated Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, beating the Tide (31-17) worse than Florida did in the SEC title game (31-20). In the final AP poll, 16 of the 65 voters cast their ballots with Utah No. 1, but that wasn't enough to earn a split championship after Tim Tebow and Co. held off the turnover-prone Sooners in the BCS title game.

Final BCS Standings: 1. Oklahoma, 2. Florida, 3. Texas, 4. Alabama, 5. USC, 6. Utah, 7. Texas Tech.

Likely four-team playoff: Oklahoma vs. Utah; Florida vs. USC.
With preference for conference champions and that Utah had a better resume than fellow unbeaten Boise State, these four teams would've been the most solid picks, even without the benefit of hindsight.

Controversies

BCS standings as a tiebreaker: The BCS standings were created for the sole purpose of matching up the top two-ranked teams to play for the BCS title. Yet, by the mid-2000s, conferences began using the standings to break ties either for the conference title or within divisions. This misapplication had its worst consequences in 2008, when OU just nudged Texas—a team it had lost to—for a spot in the Big 12 title game and, ultimately, a spot in the BCS title game.

This misuse would continue, without being discouraged by the BCS brass, until the end of the BCS era. In fact, even conferences that had no part in the BCS tried to use it to break ties, leading to the comical Conference USA debacle in 2013.

Boise State snub: For the second time in the BCS era, Boise State went undefeated and was denied a BCS bowl berth, also the sixth time it finished with either zero or one loss and had to settle for a minor bowl.

The Broncos were ranked No. 9 in the final BCS standings, yet they weren't guaranteed a berth because another non-AQ champion, Utah, was ahead at No. 6. The Fiesta Bowl then bypassed Boise to take No. 10 Ohio State as an at-large, while both No. 12 Cincinnati (Big East) and No. 19 Virginia Tech (ACC) had automatic berths.

But this Boise State snub generated enough public outrage that, when the very scenario occurred again the next year, the Broncos were given their just due.

2008 BCS Bowl Matchups
BowlScoreAttendanceTV Rating
BCS Champ*#2 Florida 24, #1 Oklahoma 1478,46815.8
Rose Bowl#3 USC 38, #8 Penn State 2493,29311.7
Fiesta Bowl#3 Texas 24, #10 Ohio State 2172,04710.4
Sugar Bowl#6 Utah 31, #4 Alabama 1771,8727.8
Orange Bowl#19 Va. Tech 20, #12 Cincinnati 773,6025.4

Final analysis: With Florida's win over Oklahoma in the BCS title game, the "SEC-as-top-dog" perception reached new heights as the conference has now won three straight BCS championships. The on-field success helped to fuel the off-field brand building process that permanently granted the SEC a first-among-equals status for the remainder of the BCS era.

The SEC champion reached the BCS title game in each of the eight years between 2006-2013. And in seven of those eight seasons, an SEC team beat out another major conference champion that had the same number of losses for a spot in the championship game—including in 2011, when Alabama advanced to the all-SEC title matchup in spite of not winning its division.

The Tide lost back-to-back games to Florida and Utah to finish the 2008 season, but their dynasty was just on the verge of being unleashed.

Thursday, January 9, 2014

BCS Review Series: 2006, the Dawn of SEC's Reign

Part 9 of a seriesOver the next few weeks, I will be reviewing each of the 16 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. Here is a look back at who got lucky, who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear throughout December and January.

Part 1: 1998, A New Beginning for College Football

Part 2: 1999, FSU Ends Michael Vick's Quest for Perfection

Part 3: 2000, FSU-Miami Sows Seeds of Controversy

Part 4: 2001, Nebraska Fiasco Rocks College Football

Part 5: 2002, Controversy On-Field Mars Perfect Ending

Part 6: 2003, Nightmare of Split National Championship

Part 7: 2004, Unbeaten Auburn Left Out in the Cold

Part 8: 2005: Perfect Season Ends With Epic at Rose Bowl

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BCS had its dream season in 2005. Too bad it had to wake up for 2006.

Throughout most of the year, it looked as if the BCS would have its first intra-conference rematch, pitting Ohio State against Michigan. The Big Ten's bitter rivals matched each other game-for-game on a collision course of unbeatens while other contenders fell away.

Then on the eve of the 1-vs.-2 showdown at the Horseshoe, Bo Schembechler, Michigan's legendary coach (and former Ohio State assistant), passed away.

The two teams joined battle with raw emotions, if very little defense. The surprisingly high-scoring game was more or less decided by Michigan linebacker Shawn Crable's late hit on Ohio State QB Troy Smith late in the game. The Buckeyes won, 42-39.

But Michigan stayed at No. 2 in the BCS standings even after the game, making a rematch in Arizona a real possibility. Then the Wolverines began to fall, for two straight weeks, without playing a single down.

First, they were passed by USC, after a thrashing of overrated Notre Dame at the L.A. Coliseum. And then, just as when it appeared that the Trojans would play in their third consecutive BCS title game, they suffered a monumental choke job against UCLA at the Rose Bowl. Michigan's rematch with Ohio State was on again.

Only for a few hours, as it turned out. After Florida dispatched Arkansas, with some difficulty, in the SEC Championship Game, the Gators leapfrogged the Wolverines (is that physiologically possible?) and got the coveted date with the Buckeyes.

Ruining the rematch turned out to be a good thing in this sense: Both Ohio State and Michigan proved to be ... frauds. The Buckeyes were mauled by Florida in a game that was never close after Ohio State scored on the opening kickoff. Michigan was likewise annihilated by USC in the Rose Bowl.

Florida got its first national championship under Urban Meyer, thanks to a lucky break—USC losing against a 20-point underdog UCLA—and a massive voter defection (more on that later). But at the end, very little argument may be made about the Gators' legitimacy as the BCS national champion. It was the first undisputed national champion from the SEC since 1998—the inaugural season of the BCS—and the first of seven straight from that conference.

This was also the first year of the double-host format, where the bowl hosting the BCS national championship game also would have its regular bowl game. With this arrangement, teams qualifying for BCS bowls would increase from eight to 10.

The main beneficiary of this change was supposed to be non-BCS conference teams, now with better access to BCS bowls. And undefeated Boise State took full advantage.

In the same University of Phoenix Stadium that was to host the BCS title game, Boise State shocked and enthralled college football fans with its delightful 43-42 overtime win over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. The Broncos tied the game in regulation on a hook-and-ladder, won the game on a Statue of Liberty, and capped it off with a marriage proposal as running back Ian Johnson got down to one knee in front of girlfriend Chrissy Popadics on national TV.

She said "yes!"



Final BCS Standings: 1. Ohio State, 2. Florida, 3. Michigan.

Likely four-team playoff: Ohio State vs. USC; Florida vs. Michigan.
With its high-ranking and season-long hold on the No. 2 spot, the Wolverines likely would've earned an at-large entry, along with the three top conference champions.


Controversies

Michigan fans won't soon forget how fickle voters defected from their team. After losing to Ohio State, the Wolverines were still comfortably ahead of both USC and Florida in both the Coaches and Harris polls. But that soon changed.

Entering the final week of the regular season, Michigan was ahead of Florida by 86 points in the Harris Poll and 40 points in the Coaches Poll. But after Florida's win over Arkansas, the Gators went ahead of Michigan by 38 points in the Harris Poll (a swing of 114 points) and 26 in the Coaches Poll (a swing of 66 points). In both cases, the voters were determined to avoid a Michigan-Ohio State rematch. With Florida and Michigan dead even in the computer rankings, the voters' wish carried the day.

This would be the first of two occasions when there was a possibility of an intra-conference rematch in the BCS title game, as the nearly exact same scenario took place five years later. But in 2011, the voters decisively opted for a rematch (more on that in a future installment).

2006 BCS Bowl Matchups
BowlScoreAttendanceTV Rating
BCS Champ*#2 Florida 41, #1 Ohio St. 1474,62817.4
Rose Bowl#5 USC 32, #3 Michigan 1893,85213.9
Sugar Bowl#4 LSU 41, #11 Notre Dame 1477,7819.0
Fiesta Bowl#8 Boise St. 43, #10 Oklahoma 42 (OT)73,7198.4
Orange Bowl#6 Louisville 24, #14 Wake Forest 1374,4707.0


BCS Formula Review: With the formula now set, the only revelation in 2006 was that the Harris Poll proved to be no better (or worse) than any other human polls. The Harris voters, like the coaches (and the writers in the AP poll) defected from Michigan to push, first USC, then Florida, into the BCS title game. As the human polls now accounted for two-thirds of the BCS formula, essentially the computer rankings were rendered meaningless in a tight race.

Final analysis: Did the right team win the BCS championship? Perhaps. But had USC not inexplicably gagged against a team that it beat, 66-19, the year before and had won seven straight against, Florida would never have made it to the title game. There would've been protests from both Michigan and Florida after USC presumably walloped Ohio State.

The two best teams of the season, as indicated by bowl results, never got to play each other. USC blew its chance at a third national title in four years, but the Trojans and Gators would never have gotten a chance to play each other anyway. Not with Ohio State being insulated in the Big Ten and going undefeated.

History would repeat itself in 2007 ... and 2008.

Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Saban and Meyer: Together Again?

Did Nick Saban make Urban Meyer literally ill? We can't say for certain, but we do know that after the last time Saban beat Meyer in a big game, Meyer nearly (and eventually) quit coaching.

That was 2009, and Alabama's 32-13 thrashing of Florida ended the Gators' repeat quest and propelled the Tide to the first of their three BCS national championships over the next four years. Saban went on to become the god of the BCS. Meyer checked himself into a hospital a day later, resigned as Florida's coach, came back, and then quit again for good.

Until he came back again.

After taking it easy in an ESPN booth for a year, Meyer returned to coaching in 2012 at Ohio State. Fifteen games into his tenure as the Buckeyes coach, he has yet to lose a game - and might not anytime soon.

There is a pretty good possibility that Meyer would end his season in Pasadena - and not for the 100th Rose Bowl Game, but that other one five days later. And across the field from him just might be his old nemesis Saban, with his Alabama team looking for its third straight national championship.

Alabama and Ohio State are currently ranked No. 1 and No. 3, respectively, in the simulated BCS standings. And the paths looks pretty wide open for both teams to reach their January destination.

The Crimson Tide got by the one-man cyclone that is Johnny Manziel on Saturday and likely will face just two ranked teams for the remainder of the regular season (Sept. 28 vs. Ole Miss and Nov. 9 vs. LSU, both at home). The Buckeyes might have to face one more ranked team than Alabama, but the Big Ten is considerably weaker than the SEC, as evidenced by the conference's going 2-5 against BCS competition last weekend.

For the purpose of the BCS, Alabama is in the pole position. It's currently top-ranked in the simulated standings and as long as it keeps winning, it will stay there. The Tide may even be able to afford to lose a game and have the breaks go their way as they did in both 2011 and '12. A one-loss Alabama will have a better chance to get into the BCS title game than any other one-loss team.

As for Ohio State, while its schedule is easier, there's more elements out of its control in terms of getting into the BCS title game. It'll likely stay behind the Oregon-Stanford winner in the BCS standings, unless that team loses a second game. It's also at risk of being jumped by LSU should the Tigers win at Tuscaloosa.

But this much we do know: If the Buckeyes go undefeated again in the regular season, they'll be headed to Pasadena now that they're done with the one-year bowl ban, which kept them out of not just the Rose Bowl but a shot at the BCS title a year ago. This time around, Meyer might get a rematch with Saban with more than just the SEC championship at stake.

Meyer has a score to settle anyway. After beating Saban and Alabama in the 2008 SEC championship game, his Gators lost the rematch in 2009 and then again in a 2010 regular-season game, shortly before Meyer quit Florida for good. The SEC has had a stranglehold on the BCS title since Meyer began the seven-year streak in 2006. He'd love nothing more than being the man to end the SEC reign, and taking down his old nemesis in the process.

(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)

Monday, December 3, 2012

The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Final Regular Season)

The Guru's BlogPoll ballot, with notes below:
* I wouldn't have put Alabama in the BCS title game. In fact, I wouldn't have the Tide in the 4-team playoff were that to commence today. Simply put, Alabama has not played a schedule worthy of a No. 2 team. The Tide's best win was over Georgia in the SEC championship game, by a hair. Their best regular-season win was a comeback at LSU, by a hair. The rest of their wins were over a bunch of patsies, and they lost to Texas A&M.

* Oregon is the team that should be playing for the BCS title. Its only loss is in overtime to a conference champion that's ranked higher than Texas A&M. The Ducks absolutely destroyed everybody else. Why does Alabama get a pass for a home loss in regulation but Oregon doesn't for a home loss - to a better team - in overtime?

* I'd even make a case for Florida before Alabama. The Gators played arguably the toughest schedule among all the top teams. They beat four teams ranked in the top 13. Their only loss was a close one at a neutral site. That loss kept them out of the SEC title game, but last year that happened to the Tide and it didn't stop them from winning the "national championship."

* I have Northern Illinois at No. 22 on my ballot. While I made a passionate defense for the Huskies on why they deserve to be in the BCS based on the setup of the system, this is where they should be in a poll given the strength of their schedule and that their only loss was to 4-8 Iowa.

* Conference-by-conference tally: SEC (6), Pac-12 (4), Big Ten (4), Big 12 (2), ACC (2), WAC (2), MWC (2), MAC (1), Big East (1), Independent (1).

Sunday, November 18, 2012

The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 12)

This week's BlogPoll ballot, with notes below:
* Well, there's no way of getting around this, Notre Dame is the No. 1-ranked team in the land, even if it's not the BEST team. There is a difference, and we'll see what that difference is in the BCS title game - if, Notre Dame gets by USC.

* I don't understand why Alabama is ranked No. 2 in the AP and coaches polls. Is it because the Tide are the defending national champion? And why does that have to do with anything? Florida won at Texas A&M and lost a close game at a neutral site to Georgia and somehow it's ranked several spots behind Alabama, which lost at home to A&M?

* There are several quality if unheralded non-AQ teams quietly putting together an impressive resume. I'll just mention San Jose State, a beleaguered program that's having its best year in decades. The Spartans nearly knocked off Stanford in the season opener (which turned out to be no fluke) and also handed San Diego State one of its only two losses. They should get a decent bowl, but they won't.

* On the flipside, there's USC, my (and my others') preseason No. 1, which is going out with a whimper. The Trojans likely will finish 7-5 with Matt Barkley sitting out the regular-season finale against Notre Dame. SC's demise starts and ends with coaching, but Lane Kiffin will be back next season, even if he's forced to fire his own dad.

* Conference-by-conference tally: SEC (6), Pac-12 (4), Big 12 (4), Big Ten (3), ACC (2), Big East (2), MAC (1), MWC (1), WAC (1), Independent (1).

Sunday, October 21, 2012

The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 8)

The Guru's BlogPoll ballot, with notes below:
* There isn't a lot of movement on my ballot this week because there's just not that much happening. K-State beat the living crap out of an overrated West Virginia team. Florida trouncing South Carolina at home - the margin was a mild surprise but the outcome was not. Oregon blasted Arizona State, as expected, even if the Ducks pretty much took the second half off after taking a 43-7 halftime lead.

* Yet, Oregon lost a lot of ground in the only two polls that matter in the BCS standings - and the two polls that has the most number of clueless voters. Case-in-point, Nevada, despite losing at home in OT to San Diego State, gained two more votes in the Harris Poll. Come again?

* I'm reluctantly adding both of the undefeated Big East teams in this week's ballot, meaning now all 11 remaining unbeaten teams are ranked. Even if they played against unimpressive competition, the fact that Rutgers and Louisville still have yet to lose will have to count for something.

* Conference-by-conference tally: SEC (7), Pac-12 (4), Big 12 (3), Big Ten (2), ACC (2), Big East (2), C-USA (1), MWC (1), MAC (1), WAC (1), Independent (1).

Friday, October 5, 2012

Somebody in SEC Is Going to Have to Lose

Is the SEC a great con or the real deal?

That question is posed nearly every season and in the past six years the SEC always claimed the high ground at the end of the year. But this gets repeated every year because of the absolute sham of a schedule most SEC powers play.

Five SEC teams are ranked in the top nine in the latest simulated BCS standings, very impressive indeed. Then take a look at whom they got on their respective non-conference schedules:
Western Kentucky, Florida Atlantic, Western Carolina (No. 1 Alabama), North Texas, Idaho, Towson (No. 3 LSU), Buffalo, Florida Atlantic (again?), Georgia Southern (No. 4 Georgia), East Carolina, UAB, Wofford (No. 6 South Carolina), Bowling Green, UL-Lafayette, Jacksonville State (No. 9 Florida).

None of these are BCS conference teams, and each school faces at least one FCS team. Not exactly a murder's row, is it?

At least Alabama and LSU have played - and resoundingly beaten - the one BCS conference foe they each have on their nonconference schedules. And Michigan and Washington look like competitive teams in their respective conferences. But how legit are the three SEC East frontrunners, since each of their one BCS nonconference game won't take place until the end of the regular season?

We'll get some ideas this Saturday, even if they still lead to simply a circular argument. Two major SEC conference games will finally create some separation at the top of the SEC, as four of those five top-ranked teams go head-to-head.

First up, LSU visits the Swamp (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS) in perhaps the most important game to-date for the Gators in the post-Urban Meyer era. Florida might be 4-0, but it's not beaten a ranked team and has looked listless and vulnerable in some of its wins. The Tigers have been even less impressive aside from their home rout of the Huskies.

In the short term, this game is more important for LSU. A loss might effectively end the Tigers' hopes of a return trip to the BCS title game, a bitter disappointment for a team that was ranked No. 1 in some preseason polls. But in the longer view, this game will be a huge referendum on the Will Muschamp regime at Florida.

A loss to LSU will instantly squash all the "Florida is back!" talk and consign it as just another also-ran in the SEC. But a victory not only sets the Gators up for a promising run the rest of the season - Florida will have just one more true road game at the end of the season at Florida State after next week's game at Vandy - it will give Muschamp the breathing room he needs from the fickle Florida faithful to restore the program to the heights established by Steve Spurrier.

(FULL ARTICLE @ SB NATION)

Sunday, October 9, 2011

The Guru's BlogPoll (Week 6)

The Guru's BlogPoll ballot, with notes below:

* Wow, that's some seriously boring ballot, ain't it? The Top 10 are absolutely unchanged and the top 20 are about the same except for a couple of losing teams dropping out. There was not a single surprise last week as every single team on my ballot won unless they were playing a higher-ranked opponent. Except San Diego State, but it was No. 25 and lost to a TCU team that was favored by 4 points.

* And don't expect much from next week, either. Only three games involving the top 10 teams that might cause a ripple - Oklahoma State at Texas, Michigan at Michigan State and Arizona State at Oregon. The top six teams, the only real candidates for the national championship, are all facing double-digit underdogs.

* At this point, I'm not willing to put any two-loss team on the ballot. Texas A&M is still in all the polls, which befuddles me. And yes, Florida lost to the top 2 teams on my ballot, but lost each game by at least four touchdowns. That team's not worthy of a top 25 spot right now.

* New teams that made the ballot this week: Baylor, North Carolina, Washington.

* Conference-by-conference tally: Pac-12 (5), Big 12 (5), SEC (4), Big Ten (4), ACC (4), MWC (1), Big East (1), C-USA (1).
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