The first College Football Playoff is rightly declared a success. After Ohio State's emphatic 42-20 victory over Oregon, we can finally proclaim a national champion in college football that's more substantial than mythical.
Well, almost. TCU is still out there and a legitimate argument can be made that it was unfairly excluded. The Horned Frogs likely won't finish worse than third in the final AP Poll, maybe even getting a few votes for second.
That's why well before all the golden confetti streamed down from the rafters at Jerry Jones' football palace Monday night, there was already plenty of talk about expanding the playoff. We're only in the first year of a 12-year pact for a four-team playoff, but there's already clamoring for an eight-team playoff, or even a 16-team playoff.
It's not gonna happen. Not anytime soon. And probably not going to be eight teams and certainly never 16 teams.
College football's postseason attendance scheme is like moving small cities from place to place. Each major bowl game counts on travel and displacements of up to 50,000 people. And as this year's playoff has already proved, to make those same people take two trips are difficult and hence the empty seats at the playoff bowl games and low prices on the secondary ticket markets.
But that's not to say we'll never expand beyond four teams. In fact, there's a plausible scenario for expansion, even though it probably won't happen before the 2020 season, about halfway through the current contract.
A six-team playoff is imminently achievable and reasonable.
The biggest gripe against the current four-team playoff is that there are five power conferences. In this year's case, Big 12's co-champions TCU and Baylor were both left out. Another complaint is that within this scheme no team outside of the major conferences (and Notre Dame) would ever get a chance to play for the national title.
With six teams, all five major conference champions would be guaranteed a spot with room for one more deserving team, which could come out of the Group of Five conferences or be a non-champion of the Power Five. This would greatly reduce the burden on the selection committee as its main job becomes picking one team to add to the playoff field.
This arrangement would not dilute the meaning of the regular season but in fact enhance it. Teams would be encouraged to play tough non-conference opponents knowing that it won't hurt their chances of making the playoff as long as they win their conference. And in all probability the one at-large team in the playoff field would be one that's had a challenging schedule instead of one that's filled it with cream puffs.
As for the attendance issue, this could be easily remedied by playing the first two playoff games on campus sites, with the top two seeds earning a bye. These "quarterfinals" matching teams seeded third through sixth would be played on the Saturday after conference title games (now reserved for Army-Navy), with the winners advancing to the New Years' Six semifinal games and losers still earning a place in other NY6 bowl games.
Just as the BCS altered its format halfway through its 16-year existence by going to the double-host model that created the non-bowl championship game, the CFP can easily adopt the new six-team format without making many fundamental changes to its current scheme. Bowl pairings can still be announced on the first Sunday of December, with the New Years' Six lineup to be finalized a week later.
This idea should be embraced by the everyone in the industry. ESPN, after being astonished by the high ratings of this season's semifinal games, would love to add two more games. Bowl-game host committees can breathe easy as this doesn't further disrupt their system. University administrators probably won't have an issue with the opportunity to host an extra home game that's a guaranteed sellout.
So will the expansion happen? Yes, but it will take time. Unlike the NFL or any other professional sports leagues, college football is run by a large collection of people that includes school presidents, athletic directors, conference commissioners and TV executives. New ideas are not going on the agenda tomorrow or in the immediate future.
The next two championship game sites have been selected so for certain nothing will change before the 2017 season. Also the power brokers will want to see how things shake out for awhile before signing off on any deviation from the original plan.
But change is coming, you just need to wait a few years. And remember, six should be the magic number.
Showing posts with label ACC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ACC. Show all posts
Monday, January 12, 2015
Friday, December 19, 2014
Breaking Down Russell Athletic Bowl
By Jesse Lawrence
As we inch closer to the December, 29th Russell Athletic Bowl between the Oklahoma Sooners and the Clemson Tigers, the ticket prices are bound to change. For this game, we are starting to see a drastic decrease in the prices of tickets to the game in the home of Disney World.
As we inch closer to the December, 29th Russell Athletic Bowl between the Oklahoma Sooners and the Clemson Tigers, the ticket prices are bound to change. For this game, we are starting to see a drastic decrease in the prices of tickets to the game in the home of Disney World.
According to Totally Tickets, the average price of a ticket to the game in Orlando Florida costs $91.23, but can cost as little as $28. This price represents a 14% decrease in price over the past 7 days for Oklahoma football tickets. This decrease in price could be due to the loss of Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson.
Watson was the explosive spark that drove the Clemson offense for much of the season. When Watson was on the field, he threw 14 touchdowns and only two interceptions for the tigers. He was the catalyst to the nations 60th best scoring offense. While that rank doesn’t seem very good, they may have been more productive if Watson had played the whole season. Cole Stoudt started the year as the starting quarterback, but threw 10 interceptions on only six touchdowns. Stoudt will start on December 29th.
The Oklahoma Sooners have performed poorly late in the season as well, especially on defense. This correlates to the price of Sooners Tickets on the secondary market. The Sooners rank 48th in the nation in points allowed, and could not contain the high-powered offenses of TCU, Baylor, West Virginia, and Oklahoma State. Despite the all-American talents of Erik Stryker and Zach Sanchez, they had huge holes in the defense and were exposed by better teams all season.
Luckily for the Sooners, they don’t have to deal with Watson. Stoudt may lead the team in passing yards, but has been extremely inefficient. If quarterback Trevor Knight can contain his play and not make mistakes, they should be okay. Knight hasn’t played very well at times this season, but the sooners score the 11th most points in the country (38.9). Running back Samaje Perine could have trouble running into a defense that features Vic Beasley, one of the nation’s best defensive linemen. The Sooners may have to depend on the play of Knight and receiver Sterling Shepard. I wouldn’t expect Perine to be a non-factor, as he has been one of the best running backs in the Big 12 all year long.
Both of these proud programs want to end this season on a positive note, This should be an incredibly hard-fought games by coaches and players who want to revive the image of their seasons. Both of these programs are extraordinarily proud, and this game should fire up both of these teams, especially the seniors.
Jesse Lawrence is the CEO of TiqIQ.com, a leading online ticket search engine.
Jesse Lawrence is the CEO of TiqIQ.com, a leading online ticket search engine.
Friday, May 30, 2014
College Football Should Dump Divisions
With all the bellyaching about the recent decisions by the SEC and ACC to keep eight-game conference schedules, a most important point was largely missed. The scheduling setup makes competition within those conferences unfair.
Whenever there's an imbalance in the strengths of the conference's divisions, the race for the championship will become lopsided. Essentially, you'll rarely get the two best teams to play in the conference championship games.
And on top of that there's also the issue of preserving the familiarity and cohesion within the conferences. When the SEC decided to adopt the 6+1 model, with seven of the eight conference games permanently set, it means that six teams within your own conference won't set foot on your campus for an entire decade. In the case of the ACC, teams will see Notre Dame—technically not a member—more often than a few actual member schools.
There is an easy way to fix this, and it's already been put on the table: College football should dump divisions.
College basketball has been getting along just fine without divisions, even though some leagues have as many as 16 teams. Only three of the 32 conferences employ divisions, and none of the major conferences.
The divisions came into existence in 1992 when then-SEC commissioner Roy Kramer exploited a little-known NCAA bylaw in order to stage a conference championship game after the SEC expanded to 12 teams. All other major conferences followed suit. But as realignment made conferences bigger—beginning in 2014 the ACC, Big Ten and SEC will all have 14 teams—the divisional setup has become more unwieldy.
In March, the ACC in collaboration with the Big 12 submitted a proposal to drop divisions while allowing conferences to continue staging championship games. It was tabled during the NCAA's April meetings but may be considered when the board convenes again in August.
The 10-team Big 12, currently the only one of the five major conferences without a divisional setup or a title game, believes dumping divisions only makes sense as we move into the College Football Playoff era this fall.
"You wouldn't any longer have to have 12 (teams)," Big 12 commissioner Bowlsby told Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports in March. "You wouldn't any longer have to play a full round-robin in your subdivision. That would actually afford us the opportunity to have a playoff between two selected teams by whatever process we would want to select.
"Theoretically, we could say we're going to take the two highest in the BCS rankings and have them play at the end of the season."
In fact, the Big 12 has already taken steps toward making that a reality. This week the conference formally adopted a new tiebreaking procedure, tying it to the CFP poll as released by the selection committee. The same procedure obviously may be applied should it become necessary to determine the two teams to play in the conference championship game.
There is one other peripheral, though not unimportant, benefit to dumping the divisions. It is widely believed that the Big 12 will eventually expand back up to 12 teams in order to stage a conference title game. If that's no longer a prerequisite, then we might have some stability with conference memberships for awhile after five years of constant realignment maneuvers.
Whenever there's an imbalance in the strengths of the conference's divisions, the race for the championship will become lopsided. Essentially, you'll rarely get the two best teams to play in the conference championship games.
And on top of that there's also the issue of preserving the familiarity and cohesion within the conferences. When the SEC decided to adopt the 6+1 model, with seven of the eight conference games permanently set, it means that six teams within your own conference won't set foot on your campus for an entire decade. In the case of the ACC, teams will see Notre Dame—technically not a member—more often than a few actual member schools.
There is an easy way to fix this, and it's already been put on the table: College football should dump divisions.
College basketball has been getting along just fine without divisions, even though some leagues have as many as 16 teams. Only three of the 32 conferences employ divisions, and none of the major conferences.
The divisions came into existence in 1992 when then-SEC commissioner Roy Kramer exploited a little-known NCAA bylaw in order to stage a conference championship game after the SEC expanded to 12 teams. All other major conferences followed suit. But as realignment made conferences bigger—beginning in 2014 the ACC, Big Ten and SEC will all have 14 teams—the divisional setup has become more unwieldy.
In March, the ACC in collaboration with the Big 12 submitted a proposal to drop divisions while allowing conferences to continue staging championship games. It was tabled during the NCAA's April meetings but may be considered when the board convenes again in August.
The 10-team Big 12, currently the only one of the five major conferences without a divisional setup or a title game, believes dumping divisions only makes sense as we move into the College Football Playoff era this fall.
"You wouldn't any longer have to have 12 (teams)," Big 12 commissioner Bowlsby told Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports in March. "You wouldn't any longer have to play a full round-robin in your subdivision. That would actually afford us the opportunity to have a playoff between two selected teams by whatever process we would want to select.
"Theoretically, we could say we're going to take the two highest in the BCS rankings and have them play at the end of the season."
In fact, the Big 12 has already taken steps toward making that a reality. This week the conference formally adopted a new tiebreaking procedure, tying it to the CFP poll as released by the selection committee. The same procedure obviously may be applied should it become necessary to determine the two teams to play in the conference championship game.
There is one other peripheral, though not unimportant, benefit to dumping the divisions. It is widely believed that the Big 12 will eventually expand back up to 12 teams in order to stage a conference title game. If that's no longer a prerequisite, then we might have some stability with conference memberships for awhile after five years of constant realignment maneuvers.
Tuesday, March 25, 2014
Notre Dame Enters CFP Under Cloud of Uncertainty
Notre Dame will enter the College Football Playoff era with a boatload of cash.
The Irish last year signed a 10-year extension with NBC, worth a reported $15 million per year, that will run through the 2025 season—effectively the entire length of the initial CFP deal. In January, the school inked the biggest apparel contract in college sports history, a 10-year deal with Under Armour for a reported $90 million.
Forbes valued Notre Dame's football program to be worth $119 million, behind only Texas. The school is swimming in so much money that it's taking on a $400 million renovation project to greatly expand and enhance the area in and around Notre Dame Stadium.
While its bank account is healthy and robust, can the same be said for Notre Dame's football program?
The BCS era certainly isn't one to write home about for the Irish, who went 0-4 in BCS bowl games during the 16-year span—the only winless program with three or more appearances. In their only national championship game appearance in 2012, they were thoroughly outclassed by Alabama in a 42-14 rout. Notre Dame finished in the top 10 of the final AP poll just twice during the BCS era.
And the BCS had provisions that were much more friendly to Notre Dame's interests. The Irish were guaranteed a spot in a BCS bowl if they finished in the top eight of the final BCS standings. Twice they were picked for BCS bowls despite not finishing in the top 10 and were selected over more deserving teams.
In the CFP, Notre Dame might not get such breaks.
There is no guarantee for Notre Dame to be picked for any of the four bowls if it fails to make the four-team playoff. The Irish will have a spot in the Orange Bowl only if they were deemed to be ranked higher than the top teams from the SEC and Big Ten not involved in the four-team playoff—as determined by the selection committee.
The 13-person committee will have sole discretion on the playoff teams, their seeding and the other eight teams in the lucrative CFP bowls. While the Irish appear to have a couple of "friendlies" on the committee—former coach Tyrone Willingham and former U.S. Secretary of State Condi Rice, who earned a master's degree in South Bend—they're not due for any preferential treatment.
Such is the predicament for an independent team in the era of super power conferences.
By the 2015 season, after Navy joins the American Athletic Conference, there will be just two other independent teams—Army and BYU. And the Cougars just might be plucked before long by another power conference, most likely the Big 12.
Notre Dame sought to forestall a scheduling nightmare by signing up with the ACC, parking its Olympic sports teams in the conference while getting five ACC football games a year. But by remaining independent, Notre Dame still does not get the benefit of playing for a conference championship, which the committee has said it will consider with prejudice.
The Irish have made their bet by sticking with the independent path. While the decision has continued to reap financial rewards, it has not translated into glory on the football field. Notre Dame is staring at a future prospect that's as vexing as that other iconic American football brand—the Dallas Cowboys—famously rich but competitively irrelevant.
The Irish last year signed a 10-year extension with NBC, worth a reported $15 million per year, that will run through the 2025 season—effectively the entire length of the initial CFP deal. In January, the school inked the biggest apparel contract in college sports history, a 10-year deal with Under Armour for a reported $90 million.
Forbes valued Notre Dame's football program to be worth $119 million, behind only Texas. The school is swimming in so much money that it's taking on a $400 million renovation project to greatly expand and enhance the area in and around Notre Dame Stadium.
While its bank account is healthy and robust, can the same be said for Notre Dame's football program?
The BCS era certainly isn't one to write home about for the Irish, who went 0-4 in BCS bowl games during the 16-year span—the only winless program with three or more appearances. In their only national championship game appearance in 2012, they were thoroughly outclassed by Alabama in a 42-14 rout. Notre Dame finished in the top 10 of the final AP poll just twice during the BCS era.
| Season | Record | Bowl | Final AP Rank |
| 1998 | 9-3 | Gator Bowl (L) Georgia Tech | 22 |
| 2000* | 9-3 | Fiesta Bowl (L) Oregon State | 15 |
| 2002 | 10-3 | Gator Bowl (L) N.C. State | 17 |
| 2005* | 9-3 | Fiesta Bowl (L) Ohio State | 9 |
| 2006* | 10-3 | Sugar Bowl (L) LSU | 17 |
| 2012* | 12-1 | BCS Championship (L) Alabama | 4 |
| 2013 | 9-4 | Pinstripe Bowl (W) Rutgers | 21 |
And the BCS had provisions that were much more friendly to Notre Dame's interests. The Irish were guaranteed a spot in a BCS bowl if they finished in the top eight of the final BCS standings. Twice they were picked for BCS bowls despite not finishing in the top 10 and were selected over more deserving teams.
In the CFP, Notre Dame might not get such breaks.
There is no guarantee for Notre Dame to be picked for any of the four bowls if it fails to make the four-team playoff. The Irish will have a spot in the Orange Bowl only if they were deemed to be ranked higher than the top teams from the SEC and Big Ten not involved in the four-team playoff—as determined by the selection committee.
The 13-person committee will have sole discretion on the playoff teams, their seeding and the other eight teams in the lucrative CFP bowls. While the Irish appear to have a couple of "friendlies" on the committee—former coach Tyrone Willingham and former U.S. Secretary of State Condi Rice, who earned a master's degree in South Bend—they're not due for any preferential treatment.
Such is the predicament for an independent team in the era of super power conferences.
By the 2015 season, after Navy joins the American Athletic Conference, there will be just two other independent teams—Army and BYU. And the Cougars just might be plucked before long by another power conference, most likely the Big 12.
Notre Dame sought to forestall a scheduling nightmare by signing up with the ACC, parking its Olympic sports teams in the conference while getting five ACC football games a year. But by remaining independent, Notre Dame still does not get the benefit of playing for a conference championship, which the committee has said it will consider with prejudice.
The Irish have made their bet by sticking with the independent path. While the decision has continued to reap financial rewards, it has not translated into glory on the football field. Notre Dame is staring at a future prospect that's as vexing as that other iconic American football brand—the Dallas Cowboys—famously rich but competitively irrelevant.
Tuesday, March 18, 2014
College Football No Longer Needs Divisions
With realignment once again taking center stage in the 2014 season, a new question has popped up. Should FBS conferences dispense with the divisional setup in football?
Next season, three of the Big Five conferences will have 14 teams each, divided into seven-team divisions. Of the 10 conferences that play FBS football, seven of them will have divisions, with their respective winners meeting in conference championship games. By 2015 (assuming there are no other changes), only the Big 12 and Sun Belt will not stage conference title games.
This is in stark contrast with college basketball. Of the 32 Division I conferences, only three (Big South, Mid-American, Ohio Valley) have divisional splits. The other 29 conferences, including all of the "Big Five," play without an internal split of teams.
College football may be moving in that direction, too.
The ACC has submitted a proposal to "deregulate" football conference championship games, according to CBS Sports' Dennis Dodd. It's seeking to discard legislation that requires conferences to have at least 12 teams divided into two divisions in order to have a conference title game.
This proposal has wide-ranging support among all FBS conferences, and it's not difficult to see why. Divisional setups have been typically arbitrary—just look at the thankfully euthanized "Legends" and "Leaders" divisions in the Big Ten or the fact that Missouri is in the SEC "East" since joining the conference when Columbia, Mo., is west of every SEC campus except Arkansas and Texas A&M.
And with the advent of the 14-team divisions, if the current legislation is upheld, a team could conceivably go 12 years between visits to the stadium of a fellow conference member that's not in its division.
Since it's obvious that conference championship games are here to stay—there's just too much money to be made from television revenue—there's no way these conferences will voluntarily discard the divisional setup unless it's no longer required to stage a title game. But if they're freed from the binds of divisions, then conferences will have a much freer hand in how they want to stage the title games.
They may decide to match up the teams with the best records, thus maximizing the potential of their champions' chances of qualifying for the College Football Playoff. They also would be able to stage a title game without having 12 teams (think of the 10-team Big 12), thus eliminating the pressing need that fueled realignment in the first place.
For the fans and television executives, this is also a no-brainer. There will be more varied matchups within all conferences and theoretically the championship games would be more attractive since they won't be subject to the whimsical nature of the divisions.
It just makes too much sense. But since this is the NCAA we're talking about, the approval of the proposal is far from a sure thing.
Next season, three of the Big Five conferences will have 14 teams each, divided into seven-team divisions. Of the 10 conferences that play FBS football, seven of them will have divisions, with their respective winners meeting in conference championship games. By 2015 (assuming there are no other changes), only the Big 12 and Sun Belt will not stage conference title games.
This is in stark contrast with college basketball. Of the 32 Division I conferences, only three (Big South, Mid-American, Ohio Valley) have divisional splits. The other 29 conferences, including all of the "Big Five," play without an internal split of teams.
College football may be moving in that direction, too.
The ACC has submitted a proposal to "deregulate" football conference championship games, according to CBS Sports' Dennis Dodd. It's seeking to discard legislation that requires conferences to have at least 12 teams divided into two divisions in order to have a conference title game.
This proposal has wide-ranging support among all FBS conferences, and it's not difficult to see why. Divisional setups have been typically arbitrary—just look at the thankfully euthanized "Legends" and "Leaders" divisions in the Big Ten or the fact that Missouri is in the SEC "East" since joining the conference when Columbia, Mo., is west of every SEC campus except Arkansas and Texas A&M.
And with the advent of the 14-team divisions, if the current legislation is upheld, a team could conceivably go 12 years between visits to the stadium of a fellow conference member that's not in its division.
Since it's obvious that conference championship games are here to stay—there's just too much money to be made from television revenue—there's no way these conferences will voluntarily discard the divisional setup unless it's no longer required to stage a title game. But if they're freed from the binds of divisions, then conferences will have a much freer hand in how they want to stage the title games.
They may decide to match up the teams with the best records, thus maximizing the potential of their champions' chances of qualifying for the College Football Playoff. They also would be able to stage a title game without having 12 teams (think of the 10-team Big 12), thus eliminating the pressing need that fueled realignment in the first place.
For the fans and television executives, this is also a no-brainer. There will be more varied matchups within all conferences and theoretically the championship games would be more attractive since they won't be subject to the whimsical nature of the divisions.
It just makes too much sense. But since this is the NCAA we're talking about, the approval of the proposal is far from a sure thing.
Thursday, February 27, 2014
Big 12, ACC Dogged by Also-Ran Status
They are supposed to be the "Big Five" conferences as the College Football Playoff era begins in 2014. But upon closer examination, there are really the "Big Three" and then the "Next Two."
We've covered the SEC, Big Ten and Pac-12 in previous pieces analyzing the respective conferences' competitive and financial status as the BCS gives way to CFP. That leaves us with the ACC and Big 12, which face more uncertainty and issues of membership stability, as well as falling behind in the revenue arms race.
Why these two conferences are considered the lesser of the five can be viewed through the lens of conference expansions, which the Big Ten kicked off by poaching Nebraska from the Big 12:
The Big 12 was nearly gutted out of existence after losing four teams to other power conferences. Only a last-minute deal that gave Texas preferential treatment preserved the current 10-team conference, but it also sowed the seeds for potential future discontent. The current membership seems unlikely to be poached in the near future because of the grant-of-rights agreements, though even that is said to be not fool-proof.
For now, the Big 12 appears to be content to keep it at 10 teams and without a conference championship game. Having fewer teams means a bigger cut in the television money for each member school, which currently enjoys north of $20 million in revenue annually. Commissioner Bob Bowlsby has said that there are no current expansion plans, and that might very well be true until the Big 12's TV contracts run out after the 2024 season.
At least the Big 12 has remained competitive on the field, despite all the recent turmoil. Texas won the conference's last national title in 2005 and is seeking to rebuild under Charlie Strong after a couple of mediocre seasons. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas State all have been factors in the national championship race in the past few seasons.
The ACC has been more proactive in protecting its interests, and thus it's in a better position entering the new era. Of course, Florida State winning the final BCS championship couldn't hurt, either.
While it did lose Maryland to the Big Ten, the ACC got out ahead of the expansion frenzy by poaching Syracuse and Pittsburgh from the Big East and then added another ex-Big Easter Louisville to replace Maryland. While these programs marginally boosted the ACC's football profile, they cemented its status as the premier basketball conference.
The one big football acquisition for the ACC is Notre Dame, even though the Irish joined the conference in all sports except football. Beginning next season, they will play at least five ACC teams every season, and that addition has already paid dividends as each conference team is due to receive an extra million in revenue going forward.
Notre Dame made the switch out of self-preservation, even though it continues to print money like nearly no other program. It just inked the richest athletic apparel deal with Under Armour (10 years at $90 million) after extending its exclusive NBC TV contract through the 2025 season.
But all that cash can't buy the Irish competitiveness on the field as they were routed in all four BCS bowl appearances, including a 42-14 drubbing by Alabama in the 2012 BCS title game. Notre Dame isn't getting more guarantees in the CFP than it had in the BCS, especially when it comes to the four-team playoff field. In a new era when super conferences will only become even more dominant, the Irish face a treacherous future by continuing to strike out on their own as an independent.
We've covered the SEC, Big Ten and Pac-12 in previous pieces analyzing the respective conferences' competitive and financial status as the BCS gives way to CFP. That leaves us with the ACC and Big 12, which face more uncertainty and issues of membership stability, as well as falling behind in the revenue arms race.
Why these two conferences are considered the lesser of the five can be viewed through the lens of conference expansions, which the Big Ten kicked off by poaching Nebraska from the Big 12:
- Big Ten: Nebraska (Big 12), Maryland (ACC), Rutgers (Big East)
- SEC: Texas A&M, Missouri (both Big 12)
- Pac-12: Colorado (Big 12), Utah (Mountain West)
| Conference | Revenue Per School* | Network Partners | Expires |
| SEC (14) | $34 million | ESPN, CBS, SEC | 2023 |
| Big Ten (14) | $30 million | ESPN, FOX, BTN | 2016 |
| Pac-12 (12) | $21 million | ESPN, FOX, P-12 | 2023 |
| Big 12 (10) | $20 million | ESPN, FOX | 2024 |
| ACC (14) | $18 million | ESPN | 2026 |
| Notre Dame | N/A | NBC | 2025 |
The Big 12 was nearly gutted out of existence after losing four teams to other power conferences. Only a last-minute deal that gave Texas preferential treatment preserved the current 10-team conference, but it also sowed the seeds for potential future discontent. The current membership seems unlikely to be poached in the near future because of the grant-of-rights agreements, though even that is said to be not fool-proof.
For now, the Big 12 appears to be content to keep it at 10 teams and without a conference championship game. Having fewer teams means a bigger cut in the television money for each member school, which currently enjoys north of $20 million in revenue annually. Commissioner Bob Bowlsby has said that there are no current expansion plans, and that might very well be true until the Big 12's TV contracts run out after the 2024 season.
At least the Big 12 has remained competitive on the field, despite all the recent turmoil. Texas won the conference's last national title in 2005 and is seeking to rebuild under Charlie Strong after a couple of mediocre seasons. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas State all have been factors in the national championship race in the past few seasons.
The ACC has been more proactive in protecting its interests, and thus it's in a better position entering the new era. Of course, Florida State winning the final BCS championship couldn't hurt, either.
While it did lose Maryland to the Big Ten, the ACC got out ahead of the expansion frenzy by poaching Syracuse and Pittsburgh from the Big East and then added another ex-Big Easter Louisville to replace Maryland. While these programs marginally boosted the ACC's football profile, they cemented its status as the premier basketball conference.
The one big football acquisition for the ACC is Notre Dame, even though the Irish joined the conference in all sports except football. Beginning next season, they will play at least five ACC teams every season, and that addition has already paid dividends as each conference team is due to receive an extra million in revenue going forward.
Notre Dame made the switch out of self-preservation, even though it continues to print money like nearly no other program. It just inked the richest athletic apparel deal with Under Armour (10 years at $90 million) after extending its exclusive NBC TV contract through the 2025 season.
But all that cash can't buy the Irish competitiveness on the field as they were routed in all four BCS bowl appearances, including a 42-14 drubbing by Alabama in the 2012 BCS title game. Notre Dame isn't getting more guarantees in the CFP than it had in the BCS, especially when it comes to the four-team playoff field. In a new era when super conferences will only become even more dominant, the Irish face a treacherous future by continuing to strike out on their own as an independent.
Monday, October 7, 2013
Clemson or Oregon? Who's Got the Inside Track?
Oregon was held to fewer than 60 points by Colorado in a 57-16 victory Saturday night. As a result, the Ducks were severely punished for that indiscretion and dropped to No. 3 in the latest simulated BCS standings.
Oregon fell behind Clemson, which gained just enough vote shares to jump into the slot behind Alabama. The Ducks' computer ratings took a hit after beating lightly-regarded Colorado, as margin of victory has no bearing on the BCS computers.
Florida State also moved up, to No. 5, after destroying previously-ranked Maryland, leapfrogging Ohio State, which also defeated a ranked team in Northwestern, though in less impressive fashion.
This sets up a gargantuan matchup between Clemson and Florida State in two weeks (assuming no #Clemsoning takes place next week against Boston College, while the 'Noles have a bye week), on the eve of the release of this year's initial BCS standings. But before we get to that, a more important question needs to be asked:
Between Clemson and Oregon, if both teams run the table and win their respective conference championships, which is more likely to finish No. 2 behind Alabama?
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Oregon fell behind Clemson, which gained just enough vote shares to jump into the slot behind Alabama. The Ducks' computer ratings took a hit after beating lightly-regarded Colorado, as margin of victory has no bearing on the BCS computers.
Florida State also moved up, to No. 5, after destroying previously-ranked Maryland, leapfrogging Ohio State, which also defeated a ranked team in Northwestern, though in less impressive fashion.
This sets up a gargantuan matchup between Clemson and Florida State in two weeks (assuming no #Clemsoning takes place next week against Boston College, while the 'Noles have a bye week), on the eve of the release of this year's initial BCS standings. But before we get to that, a more important question needs to be asked:
Between Clemson and Oregon, if both teams run the table and win their respective conference championships, which is more likely to finish No. 2 behind Alabama?
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Thursday, January 10, 2013
Alabama Still No.1, Unanimously (Sort Of)
For the first time, at the urging of a few readers, the Guru is putting together a Simulated BCS Standings at the conclusion of the postseason. Besides addressing the faux outcry about how Notre Dame still finished first in one of the computer ratings, we also wanted to deal with ineligible teams and where they would've finished in the standings.
* Because the Harris Poll doesn't publish season-ending standings, we used the AP Poll as the stand-in. And also, since Ohio State and Penn State weren't eligible to be ranked in the Coaches Poll, we mirrored their vote shares in the AP poll in order to obtain their true rankings in the standings.
* The Colley Matrix is getting skewered for still having Notre Dame No. 1 after getting lambasted by Alabama by 28 points - in a game that wasn't really that close. But blame that anomaly on the BCS, which in 2002 decided to mandate that margin of victory can't be part of any BCS computers. So to the computers, all losses are treated as 1-point losses, and most computers don't automatically rank one team higher than another with identical records based purely on head-to-head results.
* Still, five of the six BCS computers have Alabama finishing at No. 1, coupled with unanimous votes from the AP and Coaches polls, the Crimson Tide still earned a perfect score in the final standings.
* Ohio State just nudged Notre Dame for No. 3, even though it was ineligible to play in postseason. Likewise for Penn State, which finished at No. 28.
* There is significant agreement between the computers and the polls as to which teams should be in the top 25. After Michigan - the only 5-loss team in the top 25, though it did lose to teams ranked Nos. 1, 3, 4, 8 and 22 - there is a steep drop to No. 26 Cincinnati.
* The ACC teams - Florida State and Clemson - ended up being the victims of their conference's subpar season. Even though both teams won their bowl games, they both finished outside of the top 10 because of weak computer rankings.
* A total of 42 teams appeared in the final standings, including back-to-back FCS champion North Dakota State, which received a lone vote in the AP Poll. This practice was allowed by the AP after Appalachian State upset Michigan in the 2007 season opener.
* One more note about the polls. The Coaches Poll had only 56 voters in the final poll, with the explanation that Mike MacIntyre, Sonny Dykes and Ruffin McNeill could not be reached in time to turn in their final ballots. Is this lame, or what? MacIntyre and Dykes switched jobs, but surely they have cell phones. And what's McNeill's excuse? Last we checked he's still at East Carolina.
* Is there any more questions about the SEC's dominance? Half of the conference (seven teams) is ranked in the top 23, including six in the top 13. Pac-12, Big 12 and Big Ten each placed six teams in the rankings, and the rest: Big East (3), WAC (3), MAC (3), ACC (2), CUSA (2), MWC (1), Sun Belt (1) and Notre Dame (independent).
* Because the Harris Poll doesn't publish season-ending standings, we used the AP Poll as the stand-in. And also, since Ohio State and Penn State weren't eligible to be ranked in the Coaches Poll, we mirrored their vote shares in the AP poll in order to obtain their true rankings in the standings.
* Still, five of the six BCS computers have Alabama finishing at No. 1, coupled with unanimous votes from the AP and Coaches polls, the Crimson Tide still earned a perfect score in the final standings.
* Ohio State just nudged Notre Dame for No. 3, even though it was ineligible to play in postseason. Likewise for Penn State, which finished at No. 28.
* There is significant agreement between the computers and the polls as to which teams should be in the top 25. After Michigan - the only 5-loss team in the top 25, though it did lose to teams ranked Nos. 1, 3, 4, 8 and 22 - there is a steep drop to No. 26 Cincinnati.
* The ACC teams - Florida State and Clemson - ended up being the victims of their conference's subpar season. Even though both teams won their bowl games, they both finished outside of the top 10 because of weak computer rankings.
* A total of 42 teams appeared in the final standings, including back-to-back FCS champion North Dakota State, which received a lone vote in the AP Poll. This practice was allowed by the AP after Appalachian State upset Michigan in the 2007 season opener.
* One more note about the polls. The Coaches Poll had only 56 voters in the final poll, with the explanation that Mike MacIntyre, Sonny Dykes and Ruffin McNeill could not be reached in time to turn in their final ballots. Is this lame, or what? MacIntyre and Dykes switched jobs, but surely they have cell phones. And what's McNeill's excuse? Last we checked he's still at East Carolina.
* Is there any more questions about the SEC's dominance? Half of the conference (seven teams) is ranked in the top 23, including six in the top 13. Pac-12, Big 12 and Big Ten each placed six teams in the rankings, and the rest: Big East (3), WAC (3), MAC (3), ACC (2), CUSA (2), MWC (1), Sun Belt (1) and Notre Dame (independent).
Friday, January 4, 2013
Win or Lose, Notre Dame Already Won Big
No matter what happens Monday night in the BCS championship game against Alabama, Notre Dame will be the big winner for 2012, and many more years to come.
Call it the luck of the Irish if you want, but they could not have picked a better time to put together a dream season.
As recently as the end of last season, it was legitimate to question whether Notre Dame was even relevant. Squeezed out - on its own volition, no less - of the mad conference realignment money-grab, Notre Dame has become a perennial also-ran in a landscape increasingly dominated by the SEC and other power conferences. The Irish had lost 10 of their last 12 bowls games, including nine in a row from 1994-2006. And their TV ratings have slipped so much that they were even mocked by their own network.
All it took was a 12-game winning streak to fix all that.
Expectations weren't high as the Irish began their third season under Brian Kelly, unranked in the preseason AP poll with a brutal schedule that included Michigan, Stanford, Oklahoma and top-ranked USC, with the latter two on the road. They were an independent outfit, an anachronism from a bygone era.
But as it proved this season, Notre Dame is uniquely qualified to strike out on its own. And independence is a vital part of its identity as the team rang up victories and cash registers alike.
Win or lose on Monday, Notre Dame will collect $6.2 million this season by playing in a BCS bowl game, which dwarves the payout to any given conference member. The Pac-12 teams, which lead the rest, will collect $2.48 million each this season by virtue of having two conferences members in BCS games to divide $29.8 million 12 ways.
Notre Dame went with a winner-take-all approach in the first eight years of the BCS, during which it earned $27.5 million by appearing in two BCS games. Starting in 2006, it opted for a more risk-averse route, accepting a smaller but guaranteed annual payment with a bonus in years it qualifies for a BCS game. Even if the Irish fail to make a BCS bowl next season, they will have collected at least $21.6 million over eight years, an annual rate of $2.7 million that outstrips every school during that timespan.
With the arrangement of BCS 2.0, Notre Dame likely will increase the BCS payout gap on its conference-affiliated competition. With six bowls and a total of 12 slots available annually, the Irish will have a better chance to become a fixture in the new setup, especially if Kelly can build on his success this season with more banner recruiting classes. In the new scenario, Notre Dame should qualify for a BCS game every season with two losses or fewer, not a particularly high bar considering it'll be playing at least five ACC foes per season by 2014.
And it gets better (if you're a hater, it might be a good time to close the browser now). Notre Dame's renaissance comes just in time as negotiations for a new TV contract heat up. NBC pays Notre Dame a reported $15 million annually in an eight-year deal that expires after 2015. And this year's TV ratings for the Irish, capped by a blockbuster 10.3 in the regular-season finale at USC and maybe double that for the BCS title game, will only reinforce their brand power and value.
Since most of the major conferences have recently signed new TV deals worth at least 20 million annually to each school, expect NBC to match that to keep Notre Dame home games on the Peacock Network. At the very least, Notre Dame's new deal should exceed the $17 million per school the ACC is getting, but no one should be surprised if the new TV contract pays the Irish $25-$30 million a year.
All in all, things have worked out swimmingly for the Irish this year. They beat the posse out of the fast-imploding Big East by putting all their Olympic sports teams in the ACC. The five-football-games-per-year agreement with the ACC allows the Irish to play a high-profile schedule without being too severely challenged. All the while they get to maintain their cherished independence as the only truly national program in college football.
And if they manage to beat Alabama and Nick Saban on Monday night? It's a prospect that just might be too terrifying for some to contemplate.
(FULL ARTICLE @ SB NATION)
Call it the luck of the Irish if you want, but they could not have picked a better time to put together a dream season.
As recently as the end of last season, it was legitimate to question whether Notre Dame was even relevant. Squeezed out - on its own volition, no less - of the mad conference realignment money-grab, Notre Dame has become a perennial also-ran in a landscape increasingly dominated by the SEC and other power conferences. The Irish had lost 10 of their last 12 bowls games, including nine in a row from 1994-2006. And their TV ratings have slipped so much that they were even mocked by their own network.
All it took was a 12-game winning streak to fix all that.
Expectations weren't high as the Irish began their third season under Brian Kelly, unranked in the preseason AP poll with a brutal schedule that included Michigan, Stanford, Oklahoma and top-ranked USC, with the latter two on the road. They were an independent outfit, an anachronism from a bygone era.
But as it proved this season, Notre Dame is uniquely qualified to strike out on its own. And independence is a vital part of its identity as the team rang up victories and cash registers alike.
Win or lose on Monday, Notre Dame will collect $6.2 million this season by playing in a BCS bowl game, which dwarves the payout to any given conference member. The Pac-12 teams, which lead the rest, will collect $2.48 million each this season by virtue of having two conferences members in BCS games to divide $29.8 million 12 ways.
Notre Dame went with a winner-take-all approach in the first eight years of the BCS, during which it earned $27.5 million by appearing in two BCS games. Starting in 2006, it opted for a more risk-averse route, accepting a smaller but guaranteed annual payment with a bonus in years it qualifies for a BCS game. Even if the Irish fail to make a BCS bowl next season, they will have collected at least $21.6 million over eight years, an annual rate of $2.7 million that outstrips every school during that timespan.
With the arrangement of BCS 2.0, Notre Dame likely will increase the BCS payout gap on its conference-affiliated competition. With six bowls and a total of 12 slots available annually, the Irish will have a better chance to become a fixture in the new setup, especially if Kelly can build on his success this season with more banner recruiting classes. In the new scenario, Notre Dame should qualify for a BCS game every season with two losses or fewer, not a particularly high bar considering it'll be playing at least five ACC foes per season by 2014.
And it gets better (if you're a hater, it might be a good time to close the browser now). Notre Dame's renaissance comes just in time as negotiations for a new TV contract heat up. NBC pays Notre Dame a reported $15 million annually in an eight-year deal that expires after 2015. And this year's TV ratings for the Irish, capped by a blockbuster 10.3 in the regular-season finale at USC and maybe double that for the BCS title game, will only reinforce their brand power and value.
Since most of the major conferences have recently signed new TV deals worth at least 20 million annually to each school, expect NBC to match that to keep Notre Dame home games on the Peacock Network. At the very least, Notre Dame's new deal should exceed the $17 million per school the ACC is getting, but no one should be surprised if the new TV contract pays the Irish $25-$30 million a year.
All in all, things have worked out swimmingly for the Irish this year. They beat the posse out of the fast-imploding Big East by putting all their Olympic sports teams in the ACC. The five-football-games-per-year agreement with the ACC allows the Irish to play a high-profile schedule without being too severely challenged. All the while they get to maintain their cherished independence as the only truly national program in college football.
And if they manage to beat Alabama and Nick Saban on Monday night? It's a prospect that just might be too terrifying for some to contemplate.
(FULL ARTICLE @ SB NATION)
Wednesday, January 2, 2013
College Football With an NFL Flavor
What if college football was, say, organized like the National Football League?
With the sport's powers-that-be rapidly moving toward another segregation of the haves and have-nots - just like when Division I football was split into I-A and I-AA in 1978 - the days of the super conferences hoarding just about every last dollar to themselves will be upon us soon enough.
They have the power and the clout to ditch the NCAA if they want to. So what if they did and formed a super division of top-echelon college football teams? We can have a balanced schedule, a sensible playoff, and above all, a legitimate champion every season. There will be less griping and more football. Who'd be against that?
It's probably not going to happen, but since we do traffic highly in hypotheticals, let's say it did ...
1. First, we have to determine who's IN the big boys' club. The easy thing to do is to include the five conferences that will comprise BCS 2.0 starting in 2014 - the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC - and their 64 members, plus Notre Dame. But to have balance, we need an even number of 72, which makes the math easier, and there are a few worthy candidates to choose from.
Boise State would be a no brainer, as are UConn and Cincinnati, which probably will both end up in a BCS conference at some point anyway. That leaves us with four more to pluck, and we would go with BYU for its pedigree, SMU and Houston, former members of the Southwest Conference now on the upswing, and San Diego State, which just edged South Florida for the last spot.
2. Then, we need to divide them up neatly and sensibly. With 72 members, this allows us to form two 36-team conferences, within each four divisions of nine tams. And to make sense geographically, we'd have a Union League composed of Big Ten and Pac-12 teams plus Notre Dame, and a Dixie League composed of SEC, ACC and Big 12 teams - plus a few variations.
For geographical reasons, we'll reassign Syracuse, Pitt, Boston College and Iowa State to the Union League, as well as add UConn, Cincy, BYU, Boise State and San Diego State. Naturally, SMU and Houston will join the Dixie League. Now you can draw a boundary along state lines from Chesapeake Bay to El Paso and the teams will neatly fall on either side of this divide.
3. Next, we can put together a balanced schedule. With each conference composed of four nine-team divisions, each team will play a full round-robin divisional schedule, plus games against a team from each of the conference's three other divisions and a game against a team from the other conference, for a total of 12 regular season games.
As for the postseason, the eight divisional winners would qualify for the playoffs, with first-round winners matched up for the conference championship and then conference winners would play in the College Football Championship, staged annually at the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1. At the most, a team would play 15 games in a season, exactly the same number as the setup in BCS 2.0.
4. And the divisions, with an eye on preserving and restoring college football's cherished rivalries, would look like this:
Northern League
With the sport's powers-that-be rapidly moving toward another segregation of the haves and have-nots - just like when Division I football was split into I-A and I-AA in 1978 - the days of the super conferences hoarding just about every last dollar to themselves will be upon us soon enough.
They have the power and the clout to ditch the NCAA if they want to. So what if they did and formed a super division of top-echelon college football teams? We can have a balanced schedule, a sensible playoff, and above all, a legitimate champion every season. There will be less griping and more football. Who'd be against that?
It's probably not going to happen, but since we do traffic highly in hypotheticals, let's say it did ...
1. First, we have to determine who's IN the big boys' club. The easy thing to do is to include the five conferences that will comprise BCS 2.0 starting in 2014 - the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC - and their 64 members, plus Notre Dame. But to have balance, we need an even number of 72, which makes the math easier, and there are a few worthy candidates to choose from.
Boise State would be a no brainer, as are UConn and Cincinnati, which probably will both end up in a BCS conference at some point anyway. That leaves us with four more to pluck, and we would go with BYU for its pedigree, SMU and Houston, former members of the Southwest Conference now on the upswing, and San Diego State, which just edged South Florida for the last spot.
2. Then, we need to divide them up neatly and sensibly. With 72 members, this allows us to form two 36-team conferences, within each four divisions of nine tams. And to make sense geographically, we'd have a Union League composed of Big Ten and Pac-12 teams plus Notre Dame, and a Dixie League composed of SEC, ACC and Big 12 teams - plus a few variations.
For geographical reasons, we'll reassign Syracuse, Pitt, Boston College and Iowa State to the Union League, as well as add UConn, Cincy, BYU, Boise State and San Diego State. Naturally, SMU and Houston will join the Dixie League. Now you can draw a boundary along state lines from Chesapeake Bay to El Paso and the teams will neatly fall on either side of this divide.
3. Next, we can put together a balanced schedule. With each conference composed of four nine-team divisions, each team will play a full round-robin divisional schedule, plus games against a team from each of the conference's three other divisions and a game against a team from the other conference, for a total of 12 regular season games.
As for the postseason, the eight divisional winners would qualify for the playoffs, with first-round winners matched up for the conference championship and then conference winners would play in the College Football Championship, staged annually at the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1. At the most, a team would play 15 games in a season, exactly the same number as the setup in BCS 2.0.
4. And the divisions, with an eye on preserving and restoring college football's cherished rivalries, would look like this:
Northern League
- Northeast Division: Boston College, Connecticut, Syracuse, Rutgers, Maryland, Pittsburgh, Penn State, Ohio State, Cincinnati.
- Great Lakes Division: Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Indiana, Purdue, Northwestern, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota.
- Northwest Division: Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, Boise State, Colorado, Nebraska, Iowa, Iowa State.
- Pacific Division: California, Stanford, USC, UCLA, San Diego State, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, BYU.
- Southwest Division: Texas, Texas A&M, Houston, TCU, SMU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Arkansas, LSU.
- Central Division: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Kentucky, Louisville, Tennessee, Vanderbilt.
- Deep South Division: Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Florida, Florida State, Miami (Fla.).
- Atlantic Division: West Virginia, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, N.C. State, Duke, Wake Forest, South Carolina, Clemson.
5. Finally, this is how the 2012 season would've turned out had this alignment and format been in place. Keep in mind we discarded results from conference championship and bowl games (AP regular-season ranking):
Of course, something this sensible and logical will never happen. That's why you own an XBox or PS3, right?
(FULL ARTICLE @ SB NATION)
- 1. Notre Dame 12-0 (Great Lakes winner) vs. 8. Stanford 11-1 (Pacific winner)
- 3. Ohio State 12-0 (Northeast winner) vs. 5. Oregon 11-1 (Northwest winner)
- 7. Kansas State 11-1 (Central winner) vs. 9. LSU 10-2 (Southwest winner, by virtue of head-to-head win over Texas A&M)
- 2. Alabama 11-1 (Deep South winner, assumed winner over Florida) vs. 11. South Carolina 10-2 (Atlantic winner, by virtue of head-to-head win over Clemson)
Of course, something this sensible and logical will never happen. That's why you own an XBox or PS3, right?
(FULL ARTICLE @ SB NATION)
Friday, December 14, 2012
The End of the Big East
It's been said that the Holy Roman Empire was neither Holy, nor Roman and not much of an empire. Kinda like the modern-day Big East Conference. And the Big East, as a football power conference, is about to join the Holy Roman Empire in the ash heap of history.
The seven non-football members of the Big East are expected to pull out - maybe as soon as next week - leaving a rump conference constituted of basically members of Conference USA, circa 2004. While the BCS likely will keep the Big East as an AQ conference in 2013, that'll simply mark the end of its football relevance.
Even if nothing else changes, by the 2014 season, only one of the Big East's seven founding members - Connecticut - will still be in the conference. In fact, UConn will be the only member at the end of the 2004 season that will still remain in the Big East. Of the 12 teams currently expected to play a Big East schedule in 2014, eight used to play in Conference USA, two in the Mountain West, plus Temple, a one-time Big East football member that was invited back in after getting booted.
OK, take a deep breath and let your head stop spinning. Here's our best guess for what the major conferences might look like by 2014-15:
The seven non-football members of the Big East are expected to pull out - maybe as soon as next week - leaving a rump conference constituted of basically members of Conference USA, circa 2004. While the BCS likely will keep the Big East as an AQ conference in 2013, that'll simply mark the end of its football relevance.
Even if nothing else changes, by the 2014 season, only one of the Big East's seven founding members - Connecticut - will still be in the conference. In fact, UConn will be the only member at the end of the 2004 season that will still remain in the Big East. Of the 12 teams currently expected to play a Big East schedule in 2014, eight used to play in Conference USA, two in the Mountain West, plus Temple, a one-time Big East football member that was invited back in after getting booted.
OK, take a deep breath and let your head stop spinning. Here's our best guess for what the major conferences might look like by 2014-15:
- Big Ten (16 teams): Add Rutgers, Maryland, Virginia, Kansas
- ACC (14 teams): Lose Maryland, Virginia, Florida State; add Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Louisville, Cincinnati, UConn
- Big 12 (10 teams): Lose Kansas; add Florida State
- Pac-12 (12 teams): No change
- SEC (14 teams): No change
- Mountain West (12 teams): Add Boise State, San Diego State, Utah State, San Jose State
- Big East (8 teams): Temple, South Florida, Central Florida, Memphis, SMU, Houston, Tulane, East Carolina
Monday, October 10, 2011
Roses, But No Crystal Ball, for Big Ten and Pac-12
The first official BCS Standings of the 2011 season is due out next Sunday. But with both the Coaches Poll and Harris Poll, plus five of the six computer data available, we already have a pretty good picture (about 94 percent accurate) on what the BCS landscape will be like.
It will come up Roses for the Big Ten and Pac-12 winner. As in, Pasadena, instead of the BCS title game.
The BCS final battles will be settled when LSU goes to Alabama on Nov. 5 and, if applicable, when Oklahoma visits Stillwater for Bedlam on Dec. 3. Almost no other games will matter, and that includes the inaugural Big Ten and Pac-12 championships.
While each league still has an unbeaten team that has a legitimate shot at going undefeated (Wisconsin and Stanford), they'll have neither the poll support nor the computer points to overtake the survivors of the two aforementioned showdowns.
The Badgers are the odds-on favorite to win the Leaders Division of the new Big Ten, but their best-case scenario will be the Rose Bowl at this point. The Badgers have only themselves to blame for their cupcake-filled nonconference schedule that dragged down their computer rankings. In three of the five computer ratings available, Wisconsin is ranked in the mid-teens.
Stanford is likewise done in by its schedule, but its main problem will be the polls. The Cardinal have yet to play a ranked team and their only chance to demonstrate their worth for the voters will be their Nov. 12 showdown against Oregon. USC and Notre Dame remain on Stanford's schedule, but they may be of only limited utility to Andrew Luck & Co.
At the moment, it appears the winner of the LSU-Alabama game will be a lock to go unbeaten, as the winner of the weak SEC East won't be able to put up much resistance in the conference championship game. Oklahoma may be a bit more vulnerable, as it has a trip to Oklahoma State and games at Manhattan and Waco still remaining. But at least the Sooners don't need to worry about a potential trap in the now-defunct Big 12 title game.
Now, should OU falter, who's more likely to step in?
Firmly in the on-deck circle is Boise State. The Broncos already had its signature win in their season opener against Georgia, and it may be consigned to a fate of not having faced a single ranked opponent. They will be heavily-favored to run the table, but the Broncos will have no shot at the BCS title game unless OU or the SEC winner loses a game.
If the Broncos should lose a shocker (very unlikely) or slump in the BCS standings (more plausible), then here's the surprise. The winner of the ACC faceoff between Clemson and Georgia Tech on Oct. 29 in Atlanta may be a darkhorse for the BCS title game should the SEC or Big 12 leaders falter. Both teams have relatively healthy computer rankings and still have decent opponents left on the schedule to boost their profile.
There are four other unbeaten teams left (Michigan, Illinois, Kansas State, Houston), but none of them is a serious threat to remain unbeaten the rest of the season. So one week before we're even into the official BCS standings, the pecking order is pretty much set.
The Rose Bowl hates the idea of being thought of as a consolation prizes, but that's what it gets from its Faustian bargain with the BCS.
Saturday, September 17, 2011
All Eyes Are Upon Texas
The Big 12 Conference at the moment shares much resemblance with the Holy Roman Empire in its dying days. It's neither Big, nor 12, and pretty soon, it might not be a conference anymore.
Blame that on the Longhorn Network.
The University of Texas' fledgling television network is reason No. 1 for all the current upheaval in college football. As a result, the expansions by the Big Ten and Pac-12 last year are merely a prelude to a much bigger revolution to come.
Chafing at the founding of the Longhorn Network and the preferential treatment Texas would be getting in the new, weakened Big 12, Texas A&M finally had had enough and decided to leave the conference, at any cost. Oklahoma, equally not amused, will soon make its westward haul and land in the Pac-12 (14?), taking Oklahoma State with it.
With Pitt and Syracuse officially moving to the ACC, Texas' only other safety chute has been effectively closed. Now the Longhorns are faced with two choices, and what they decide to do will finally complete the realignment frenzy, perhaps for the foreseeable future.
Texas' contract with ESPN stipulates that the Longhorn Network may only be disbanded if Texas leaves the Big 12, meaning that Texas cannot "save" the Big 12 in its current state. UT and OU can still save their rivalry - but only as fellow members of the Pac-16, with the Longhorn Network aborted in its infancy.
So the fork in the road is at hand for Texas. What it decides will bring down the rest of the dominoes.
If it chooses to go Route 1, keeping the Longhorn Network in a reconstituted Big 12, this is how the new conferences most likely would shape up:
- Big 12 - Bring the old Southwest Conference band back together, replacing A&M, OU and OSU with TCU, SMU and BYU, and possibly adding Houston and Tulsa to round it back up to 12
- Pac-14 - Add OU and OSU
- Big Ten - Do nothing
- SEC - Add West Virginia and Texas A&M
- ACC - Add Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Rutgers and UConn to become the only 16-team conference
- Big East - Add Central Florida, Memphis, East Carolina, Temple and have Villanova move up to D-IA to form a eight-team conference
In this scenario, the Big 12 may barely have enough juice to preserve its automatic bid in the BCS. The Big East likely would lose its, leaving just five auto-bid conferences.
Or, Texas may decide to junk the Longhorn Network and cut its losses, joining OU and OSU a year after Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott made his ambitious powerplay:
- Big 12 - Effectively disintegrates, with each member fleeing to a new conference
- Pac-16 - Take OU, OSU, Texas and Texas Tech
- Big Ten - Add Notre Dame and Kansas
- SEC - Take Missouri and Florida State, in addition to Texas A&M and West Virginia
- ACC - Add Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Rutgers, UConn and South Florida to form a 16-team conference
- Big East - Add Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State and keep TCU, plus Central Florida and Villanova to have eight teams, though now much more oriented toward the Midwest than the East
In this scenario, there will be also just five BCS conferences: three with 16 members (Pac-16, SEC and ACC) and one with 14 members (Big Ten). If this should occur, we might be done with realignment for quite awhile.
(And this is making your head spin, check out our helpful Conference Affiliation spreadsheet)
So it's all up to Texas and what will it do? The guess here is that the Longhorns will abandon their eponymous network to accept a membership in the Pac-16. The TV venture so far has been a disaster, with prep games barred from being shown on it and few cable/satellite operators willing to take it on. When DirecTV openly questioned whether two UT football games constitutes "a network," the message seemed to be loud and clear.
Maybe they can show "A Bridge Too Far" on the night the Longhorn Network bids its farewell.
Monday, September 21, 2009
Poofffffff ... Goes the Mountain West
Well, so much for all that talk about the Mountain West getting an automatic bid to the BCS.
One weekend of upsets restored order somewhat in the BCS universe. Each of the six BCS conferences has at least one team among the top 10 in the latest BCS Standings (simulated). The only BCS buster left standing, for now, is Boise State, who now firmly controls its own destiny for a second BCS bowl berth in three years.
The biggest loser over the weekend is the Mountain West (trumps even USC, but more on the Trojans later). BYU was mercilessly dissected at home by a Florida State team that nearly lost to I-AA Jacksonville State a week earlier. Utah's 16-game winning streak came to an end after its rally at Oregon fell short. As of now, TCU, with two nondescript victories, is the only undefeated MWC member that has a shot at a BCS bowl berth.
Mount St. Helens or Mountain West?
Both the ACC and Big East, much maligned throughout 2008 and in the offseason, made their way back into the top 10. Miami had a meteoric rise, checking in at No. 8, thanks mostly to its bitter rival FSU's romp in Provo. Cincinnati, after a road win at Oregon State, is now the top Big East team at No. 10.
Right behind Cincinnati is USC, last week's No. 1 team in the simulated BCS standings. The Trojans' stumble against Washington may not be fatal for their BCS championship hopes, but it's nonetheless a severe blow. The reason that the Trojans aren't quite out of it is because in two weeks, they'll play a Cal team that's now ranked in the top 5. And since the Pac-10 is fairly strong this season, USC will have a chance to improve its computer rankings, unlike last season when it was never able to recover from an early season loss at Oregon State.
At the top of the standings is Alabama, which now has a commanding lead over No. 2 Texas, which was also No. 2 last week. Florida moves up a spot to No. 3, just barely ahead of LSU, who will present the Gators' toughest road test in three weeks.
The Tigers, in effect, would be ahead of Florida if the other two computer rankings (Anderson & Hester and Peter Wolfe) are available. The Gators are still dogged by their soft schedule and as of now are only getting significant support from Billingsley among the computers. This trend continues to underscore the fact that while Florida will be fine as long as it remains unbeaten, one loss most likely will finish off the Gators for 2009.
One weekend of upsets restored order somewhat in the BCS universe. Each of the six BCS conferences has at least one team among the top 10 in the latest BCS Standings (simulated). The only BCS buster left standing, for now, is Boise State, who now firmly controls its own destiny for a second BCS bowl berth in three years.
The biggest loser over the weekend is the Mountain West (trumps even USC, but more on the Trojans later). BYU was mercilessly dissected at home by a Florida State team that nearly lost to I-AA Jacksonville State a week earlier. Utah's 16-game winning streak came to an end after its rally at Oregon fell short. As of now, TCU, with two nondescript victories, is the only undefeated MWC member that has a shot at a BCS bowl berth.
Mount St. Helens or Mountain West?
Both the ACC and Big East, much maligned throughout 2008 and in the offseason, made their way back into the top 10. Miami had a meteoric rise, checking in at No. 8, thanks mostly to its bitter rival FSU's romp in Provo. Cincinnati, after a road win at Oregon State, is now the top Big East team at No. 10.
Right behind Cincinnati is USC, last week's No. 1 team in the simulated BCS standings. The Trojans' stumble against Washington may not be fatal for their BCS championship hopes, but it's nonetheless a severe blow. The reason that the Trojans aren't quite out of it is because in two weeks, they'll play a Cal team that's now ranked in the top 5. And since the Pac-10 is fairly strong this season, USC will have a chance to improve its computer rankings, unlike last season when it was never able to recover from an early season loss at Oregon State.
At the top of the standings is Alabama, which now has a commanding lead over No. 2 Texas, which was also No. 2 last week. Florida moves up a spot to No. 3, just barely ahead of LSU, who will present the Gators' toughest road test in three weeks.
The Tigers, in effect, would be ahead of Florida if the other two computer rankings (Anderson & Hester and Peter Wolfe) are available. The Gators are still dogged by their soft schedule and as of now are only getting significant support from Billingsley among the computers. This trend continues to underscore the fact that while Florida will be fine as long as it remains unbeaten, one loss most likely will finish off the Gators for 2009.
Friday, September 11, 2009
BCS Weekly News Roundup (Sept. 11)
POLLS ALL ABOUT (MIS)PERCEPTIONS (Las Vegas Review-Journal, Sept. 10) - It doesn't matter which voter from The Associated Press Top 25 college football poll said it. The message is far more important, because it again cuts to a reality of how many continue to buy into that cartel known as Bowl Championship Series. It's a mindset thing. And it's wrong.
TRESSEL MUST BEAT USC TO KEEP FANS HAPPY (FoxSports.com, Sept. 10) - There's a very good reason he's never devoted so much as one idle thought to the pursuit of his own popularity. Why worry about something that's always been as certain as the sunrise? It's different now for Ohio State coach Jim Tressel. Way different.
BRADFORD'S INJURY SHAKES UP BCS RACE (Los Angeles Times, Sept. 10) - Oklahoma's Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback will miss time with a shoulder separation. Just how long he's out will impact the Sooners and also possibly the BCS hopes of Texas and Oklahoma State.
SCRAM, BIG EAST, MAKE WAY FOR MWC (HowtoWatchSports.com, Sept. 10) - The BCS is an unfair, monopolistic, money-driven system with a million flaws. But here’s a new one that’s coming to a head this season. The Big East has no business being included in the BCS while the Mountain West Conference is excluded.
ACC-ELERATED DECLINE (Saurian Sagacity, Sept. 6) - With conferences like the Mountain West on the rise, the argument for blowing up the current BCS system continues to gain strength, especially when fading powers like the ACC get automatic BCS admittance for their conference champion.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
BCS Era No. 5 -- Miami (Fla.)
Overall Record: 94-30 (.758), 7th
BCS Bowl Record: 3-1 (4, 6th)
National Titles (Game Record): 1 (1-1)
Final AP Rankings: 20-15-2-1-2-5-11-17-U-U (Top 5: 4/Top 10: 4)
The Hurricanes ruled the BCS roost in the beginning of the 2000s, losing just four games in a four-year span. Miami played in consecutive BCS title games and won 34 straight games before losing to Ohio State in double overtime in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl. The 2001 edition is considered among the best college football teams of all time.
But just like Florida State, the ‘Canes have fallen on hard times of late and coach Larry Coker was ousted after the 2006 season. The Randy Shannon era also didn’t get off to an auspicious beginning as Miami finished with a losing record (5-7) and missed a bowl game for the first time since 1997. The ‘Canes, who were also supposed to dominate the ACC, haven’t won a single title since joining the conference in 2004.
BCS Bowl Record: 3-1 (4, 6th)
National Titles (Game Record): 1 (1-1)
Final AP Rankings: 20-15-2-1-2-5-11-17-U-U (Top 5: 4/Top 10: 4)
The Hurricanes ruled the BCS roost in the beginning of the 2000s, losing just four games in a four-year span. Miami played in consecutive BCS title games and won 34 straight games before losing to Ohio State in double overtime in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl. The 2001 edition is considered among the best college football teams of all time.
But just like Florida State, the ‘Canes have fallen on hard times of late and coach Larry Coker was ousted after the 2006 season. The Randy Shannon era also didn’t get off to an auspicious beginning as Miami finished with a losing record (5-7) and missed a bowl game for the first time since 1997. The ‘Canes, who were also supposed to dominate the ACC, haven’t won a single title since joining the conference in 2004.
Saturday, August 30, 2008
BCS Era No. 8 -- Florida State
The Guru's Note: Continuing our Ten Years of BCS series, the Guru reviews and examines the top programs during the BCS Era (1998-2007) and ranks them from Nos. 1-10. The rankings will be published in reverse order in the coming days as we approach the kickoff of the 2008 season.
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Overall Record: 92-36 (.719), 12th
BCS Bowl Record: 1-5 (6, 4th)
National Titles (Game Record): 1 (1-2)
Final AP Rankings: 3-1-5-15-21-11-15-23-U-U (Top 5: 3/Top 10: 3)
The Seminoles began the BCS Era as the standard bearer of college football, finishing in the top five in the final AP poll a record 14 consecutive years (1987-2000). They played in the first three BCS title games, winning the 1999 championship by defeating the Michael Vick-led Virginia Tech.
But Florida State has been on an inexorable slide since in coach Bobby Bowden’s twilight seasons. The Seminoles were out of the top 25 altogether the last two seasons and have lost their last four BCS bowl appearances. Florida State begins 2008 unranked – for the first time since 1982.
Sunday, June 22, 2008
Ten Years of BCS: 2000
The Guru's Note: Beginning in June, the Guru will publish a review of each of the 10 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. In this series -- Ten Years of BCS -- the Guru will examine the results from these seasons -- who got lucky and who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear weekly leading up to the 2008 season.
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After two years of relative calm, controversy exploded on the BCS in Year 3. For the first time, a team's presence in the BCS title game was called into question. And the criticism went unabated even after an undefeated champion was crowned.
But if anything, this was a self-inflicted wound.
Bowing more to an ignorant media than any real pressure from public opinion, the BCS drastically changed its formula to retroactively make amends for an outcome it was powerless to change. Instead of defending its method and holding its ground, the BCS capitulated. This knee-jerk reaction would bring far more serious consequences in the years to come and compromise its claim to legitimacy in the system's formative years.
Oklahoma finished the 2000 regular season as the only undefeated team and its No.1 ranking was undisputed. But Florida State, despite ranking No. 3 in both the AP and coaches polls, leapfrogged No. 2 Miami in the final BCS standings to earn a date with the Sooners in the Orange Bowl.
The media went berserk, more so than even Miami coach Butch Davis. The credibility of BCS computers was called into question because it was the computers' preference for the Seminoles that carried the day. The main argument was this: Since both Miami and Florida State each had one loss, and the Hurricanes beat the Seminoles on the field, how could Florida State be ranked ahead of Miami?
The BCS panicked big time. Changes were promised and then carried out in the offseason. The computer lineup was reshuffled to de-emphasize margin of victory. And a dubious "quality win" criteria was added to the formula -- as if the existing arrangement wasn't convoluted enough.
But the BCS should've responded ith: "What's the problem?" and vigorously defended the system.
Florida State was a worthy No. 2 team. If you lined up FSU and Miami side-by-side, plenty could've been made in the Seminoles' favor:
1. Strength of Schedule: Florida State and Miami ranked Nos. 2 and 3, respectively, in the strength of schedule compartment of the BCS standings. But upon further examination, that was laughable. (the SoS, parroted from the RPI that the NCAA uses for its basketball selections, would prove to be the most destructive part of the formula -- but more on that later in the series.) Florida State played in a tougher conference (ACC)- than Miami (Big East). Its non-conference games consisted of Louisville, Brigham Young, Florida and Miami. The 'Canes played I-AA McNeese State, Louisiana Tech, Washington and FSU, plus Big East cupcakes such as Rutgers and Temple.
2. Losses: Florida State's lone loss was to Miami, 27-24, at the Orange Bowl on Oct. 7. The Seminoles rallied from a 17-0 halftime deficit to take a 24-20 lead late in the game, only to lose on a Ken Dorsey-to-Jeremy Shockey pass with 46 seconds left. The 'Canes' only defeat was a 34-29 loss at Washington on Sept. 9.
3. The Washington Factor: If head-to-head results were so paramount, then maybe Washington should've been ranked ahead of Miami. After all, the Huskies beat Miami and also only lost once -- a 23-16 defeat at two-loss Oregon.
4. Margin of Victory: If Washington was discounted because it won lots of close games -- eight of its 11 games were decided by seven or fewer points -- then the fact that Florida State won its games, against a considerably tougher schedule, by a wider margin than Miami (38.9 vs. 30.4) should not have been overlooked. And the computers didn't.
5. Historic Precedent: Even before the birth of BCS, there had been several instances that a team was ranked ahead of another despite losing head-to-head and possessing the same record. In 1993, Florida State finished ahead of Notre Dame in both polls even though the Irish won, 31-24, at South Bend. In 1978, USC finished second to Alabama (11-1) in the AP poll even though the Trojans (12-1) beat the Tide, 24-14, in Birmingham, Ala.
See, the body of evidence is pretty strong in the Seminoles' favor. Their presence in the BCS championship game was easily defensible. That they laid an near-egg in an ugly 13-2 loss to Oklahoma is immaterial. And that Miami defeated a Florida team in the Sugar Bowl -- a team that the 'Noles walloped -- is irrelevant.
And one more thing: Even if today's BCS formula, which gives two-thirds of its weight to the human polls, were applied to the 2000 season, you'd still end up with the same result. Florida State would've finished second, ahead of Miami (1.1093 vs. 1.1025).
Final BCS Standings: 1. Oklahoma, 2. Florida State, 3. Miami (Fla.), 4. Washington.
Alternative Methods:
* Using present day BCS formula: 1. Oklahoma, 2. Florida State.
* Using human polls only: 1. Oklahoma, 2. Miami (Fla.)
* Plus-One: Oklahoma vs. Washington; Florida State vs. Miami (Fla.).
Controversy:
* Notre Dame windfall: The Fiesta Bowl passed on four teams ahead of Notre Dame in the BCS standings to take the two-loss No. 10 Irish. Virginia Tech, ranked No. 5 with its only loss to Miami, fell just outside of the Kansas State-mandate and was ignored. Three other two-loss teams were also swept aside -- Oregon (out because two other Pac-10 teams were already taken), Kansas State (they're pretty used to this by now) and Nebraska. The Huskers also had a beef because they had defeated Notre Dame in South Bend, 27-24, earlier in the season. This occurred at a time when the Irish received a windfall of $13 million for a BCS bowl appearance -- as opposed to today's more balanced payouts. Notre Dame was promptly exposed as a fraud as it was annihilated by Dennis Erickson's Oregon State Beavers, 41-9.
BCS formula review: No change to the formula was made between the 1999 and 2000 seasons. And that's about to change, as the formula would be tweaked or overhauled in four of the next five years.
Analysis: The changes to the BCS formula prior to the 2001 season would prove to be simply reactionary and solved nothing. And while an argument may be stated on Miami's behalf, the results of the bowl games really made a case for Washington. The Huskies went 7-1 in easily the toughest conference in 2000. They beat Purdue in the Rose Bowl; and bowl wins by Oregon State and Oregon gave the Pac-10 three teams in the top seven in the final AP poll. The BCS was rocked by its first real crisis and another one would erupt the following season.
Friday, June 13, 2008
Ten Years of BCS: 1999
The Guru's Note: Beginning in June, the Guru will publish a review of each of the 10 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. In this series -- Ten Years of BCS -- the Guru will examine the results from these seasons -- who got lucky and who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear weekly leading up to the 2008 season.
Give yourself a big pat on the back, BCS. You deserve it. You got it right.
You matched up the only two undefeated major conference teams in the national championship game. Brilliant! Couldn't have done it without ya!
What's was left unsaid was: "Whew!"
=================================
Give yourself a big pat on the back, BCS. You deserve it. You got it right.
You matched up the only two undefeated major conference teams in the national championship game. Brilliant! Couldn't have done it without ya!
What's was left unsaid was: "Whew!"
Despite the obvious -- only Florida State and Virginia Tech emerged from the regular season unbeaten -- there were doubts about whether they'd face each other in the Sugar Bowl for the national title. At the end, Virginia Tech had a barely comfortable margin to hold off one-loss No. 3 Nebraska to play in the title game.
In the 10-year history of the BCS, 1999 had to be one of the most uneventful. The Seminoles went wire-to-wire as the No. 1 team, their place in New Orleans never in question. Upset losses by Penn State and Tennessee in the first two weeks of November paved the way for Virginia Tech to seize the No. 2 ranking.
The Hokies, led by redshirt freshman quarterback Michael Vick, had to sweat out the final four weeks of the regular season mostly because of a soft schedule. With strength of schedule a separate component accounting for nearly one-third of the BCS standings, Virginia Tech had a hard time gaining breathing room from the Cornhuskers, finishing just 1.30 points ahead in the final standings.
Just as in 1998, an undefeated non-BCS conference team finished the regular season unbeaten. And just like Tulane, a 12-0 Marshall team was shut out of a BCS bowl despite finishing No. 12 in the final standings. And one more thing like the Green Wave: The Thundering Herd, quarterbacked by Chad Pennington, completed a perfect season with a victory over BYU, in the Motor City Bowl.
In the Sugar Bowl, Vick rallied the Hokies to take a 29-28 lead at the end of the third quarter. But the Seminoles scored the game's final 18 points in the fourth quarter, giving Bobby Bowden his second, and final, national championship.
Final BCS Standings: 1. Florida State, 2. Virginia Tech, 3. Nebraska, 4. Alabama.
Alternative Methods:
* Using present day BCS formula: 1. Florida State, 2. Virginia Tech.
* Using human polls only: 1. Florida State, 2. Virginia Tech.
* Plus-One: Florida State vs. Alabama; Virginia Tech vs. Nebraska.
Controversies:
* Kansas State snub II: Well, it wasn't quite as egregious as the one in 1998, but the Wildcats once again earned the dubious honor of being the highest-ranked team not invited to a BCS bowl. K-State, ranked No. 6 with its only loss to Nebraska, was passed up by the Fiesta Bowl (No. 5 Tennessee) and Orange Bowl (No. 8 Michigan). But unlike the previous year, the Wildcats managed to hold it together and win the Holiday Bowl, 24-20, over Washington.
* Marshall snub: With today's arrangement, the Herd would've earned an automatic BCS berth. But with strength-of-schedule a key component in the formula at the time, Marshall was doomed by its 98th-place schedule. The MAC champs, however, would become the last undefeated team not to play in a BCS bowl.
BCS Formula Review: Five more computer rankings were added to the formula -- Billingsley, Dunkel, Massey, Matthews and Rothman -- bringing the total to eight. The lowest ranking among the eight was dropped and the remaining seven averaged to produce the computer ranking. Also, a "Kansas State clause" was added, guaranteeing any team finishing in the top four a BCS bowl spot, but the Wildcats weren't in position to benefit from it.
Analysis: Two years in, the BCS appeared to be producing the desired results. The title games matched deserving teams and the other BCS bowls featured interesting matchups. But this was only the calm before the storm, as raging controversies were about to envelope the BCS, forcing major changes almost annually in the coming years.
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