How Penn State Could Have Saved Big East Football

Imagine the College Football Playoff beginning next season not with five, but six major conferences.

The Big East is still at the table, but not splintered into a basketball version of mostly Catholic schools and a watered-down, rebranded football version that's no longer among the big boys but has to fight for scraps.

Imagine a healthy Big East football roster with these teams: Syracuse, Rutgers, Boston College, UConn, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Penn State. Oh yeah, and possibly even Notre Dame.

This conference—with or without Notre Dame—would not be relegated to the "Group of Five" as the Big East successor American Athletic Conference will be in the CFP. It would've had one of the biggest TV contracts and among the best bowl lineups. It very well might have been even bigger, having raided the northern ACC schools such as Maryland and Virginia.

All this could've happened with the change of just a single vote back in 1982.

With the NCAA tournament in full flight, ESPN touched on the demise of the once-mighty basketball conference in the excellent "Requiem for the Big East." The 30-for-30 series film touched on how football ruined the conference, that its drive to get the lucrative football TV money inevitably destroyed what was the best basketball conference in history.

But what if I told you football could've minted the Big East instead of ruined it? It came down to one vote.

In 1982, the independent football powers started to see the handwriting on the wall after the major conferences freed themselves from the bonds of the NCAA and were able to negotiate their own television deals. Penn State's Joe Paterno was contemplating the formation a new eastern football conference, but was persuaded to apply to join the nascent Big East.

By a single vote, the Big East athletic directors turned down Penn State's membership request. Needing six votes to pass, Penn State got five. Three basketball schools—Georgetown, St. John's and Villanova—voted against JoePa's Nittany Lions.

Villanova actually had played Division I football and produced NFL players including Hall of Famer Howie Long. But it shut down the football program in 1980, citing lack of support, only to bring it back four years later under pressure from the alumni. Had the vote not taken place during the 'Cats' football hiatus, Villanova would've cast the deciding vote in favor of Penn State and thus changed history.

Mike Tranghese, who was then-commissioner Dave Gavitt's right-hand man, said he told Gavitt the Big East would "rue the day" when it rejected Penn State. Tranghese would later succeed Gavitt and tried vainly to make the Big East football-relevant, but by then it was too late.

Penn State joined the Big Ten instead in 1990 and that officially began the football-and-TV-driven realignment frenzy that's still not quite finished. The Big East was raided by the Big 12, Big Ten and the ACC until it was no more.

What Big East Could've Looked Like

Team	Big East Member	Current Membership
Boston College	1979-2005	ACC
Cincinnati	2005-2013	American
Connecticut	1979-2013	American
Louisville	2005-2013	ACC
Maryland	Never a member	Big Ten
Notre Dame	1995-2013 (non-football)	ACC (Independent football)
Penn State	Rejected for membership in 1982	Big Ten
Pittsburgh	1982-2013	ACC
Rutgers	1991-2013	Big Ten
Syracuse	1979-2013	ACC
Temple	1991-2005, 2012-2013	American
Villanova*	1980-2013	Big East (FCS football)
Virginia	Never a member	ACC
Virginia Tech	1991-2004	ACC
West Virginia	1991-2012	Big 12

A Big East with Penn State as the kingpin in football, however, would've thrived in this age. It would've monopolized all the big media markets on the eastern seaboard and gotten a huge windfall of television dollars. (And remember, the Big East was actually the first conference to have its own network.) Even as late as 2011, before the Big East's final collapse, it was offered a $1.1 billion TV deal, which of course it foolishly turned down.

With Penn State in the fold, Notre Dame might've joined the Big East in the '80s as well, as its fanbase has always been more eastern oriented than around its midwest-based campus. And in that case the Irish would've been a full member instead of staying independent in football when they did join the Big East in 1995.

Gavitt's vision had always been making the Big East the premier basketball conference, which was achieved to an astonishing degree in the 1980s, with the crowning moment in 1985 when three conference teams made the Final Four. But by failing to tame the beast that is football, Gavitt's beloved creation ended up being eaten alive by it 30 years later.

Pac-12 Conference: BCS's Weakest Link

It's easy to take shots at the woebegone Big East. The conference is being picked apart by vultures from Chicago to Greensboro. It's a year away from being sent from the first-class cabin to steerage aboard the HMS BCS. It's now even not above begging schools in Greenville and Fresno to take up membership.

But you know something? When it comes to playing against the big boys in the bowl season, the Big East has more than held its own. In fact, over the past three seasons, the Big East had the best bowl winning percentage of any conference, at .647 by going 11-6.

The conference that's truly the laughingstock of its brethren? If you're wondering, it's the one with the richest TV contract of them all: the Pac-12 conference.

Since Larry Scott took over as the commissioner in July 2009, he has done much to raise brand awareness of his conference. He didn't quite corral Texas and Oklahoma, but he did snatch Colorado and Utah to expand from the Pac-10 to the Pac-12 and add a conference title game. He negotiated a 12-year, 4.3-billion TV deal with FOX and ESPN, and launched a new Pac-12 Network. And he even held a preseason press conference in the Big Apple, making sure the conference of the Left Coast wasn't left out because of East Coast media bias.

But despite his efforts, the Pac-12's reputation has been growing mostly in marketing circles. On the football field, it's another story.

The 2009 season is a good demarcation in examining the conference's on-field fortunes. Besides being the first year of the Larry Scott regime, it also marked the start of the post-USC era. The Trojans had played in a record seven consecutive BCS bowls - winning six - between 2002-08. But their dynasty would soon crumble as a result of severe NCAA sanctions and the departure of coach Pete Carroll.

Between 2009-2011, the Pac-10/12 had the worst bowl record of any AQ conference, going 6-12 for a paltry .333 winning percentage. The Pac schools went 5-9 against fellow AQ conferences and 1-3 against non-AQ competition. Overall, the Pac ranked 10th, fifth and ninth out of the 11 conferences in those three seasons, respectively.

How AQ conferences fared in bowl games between 2009-2011 seasons:

• Big East - 4-2, 4-2, 3-2 = 11-6 (.647)
• SEC - 6-4, 5-5, 5-2 = 16-11 (.593)
• Big 12 - 4-4, 3-5, 6-2 = 13-11 (.542)
• Big Ten - 4-3, 3-5, 4-6 = 11-14 (.440)
• ACC - 3-4, 4-5, 2-6 = 9-15 (.375)
• Pac-12 - 2-5, 2-2, 2-5 = 6-12 (.333)

(FULL ARTICLE @ SB NATION)

College Football's Real God: Almighty TV

While the Big East scrambles to stave off its imminent collapse, whether it's by enticing Fresno State and UNLV to join up or begging UConn and Cincinnati to stay put, it can make no tangible promises because there's no TV dollars to back any such pledge.

Basically, the Big East blew it by not locking down a good TV deal when the going was good.

Television money is now the lifeblood of college sports - specifically college football, which has become the second-most valuable property to television networks after the NFL. With the advent of DVRs and streaming services, sports is about the only thing left that can still deliver huge live audiences that advertisers crave. And that, in turn, brings in big bucks.

The Los Angeles Lakers signed a 20-year, 3 billion exclusive deal with the fledgling Time Warner Sportsnet, which commands a whopping $4 per subscriber fee and won a staredown with DirecTV.
Just up the street, the Dodgers are expected to one-up that, with a new 25-year deal expected to be worth north of $6 billion. And then there's the mother of all monster deals - the NFL's next TV contract, scheduled to kick in for 2014, is worth about $5 billion annually.

College football certainly has gotten in on the act, with the five major conferences each inking billion-dollar deals in the past two years. The annual payouts roughly go like this:

• Pac-12: $250 million ($20.83 million per school)
• Big Ten: $248 million ($20.67 million)
• Big 12: $200 million ($20 million)
• ACC: $240 million ($17.14 million)
• SEC: $205 million ($14.64 million)
• Notre Dame: 15 million

(And please don't cry for the SEC, which is certain to renegotiate its current deal with CBS and ESPN before the next season and launch its own network by 2014. The new pact is expected to bring each SEC school more than $20 million per year.)

So who's missing here? Yep, the Big East, the erstwhile member of the big boys' club that's about to get tossed out on its ear after the 2013 season.

The Big East was essentially done in by its own greed. In April 2011, the much-maligned former commissioner John Marinatto had a nine-year, $1.17 billion deal with ESPN on the table, which would've paid its full members about $13.8 million per season and the basketball-only schools $2.5 million. While it wasn't Big Ten money, it was more than commensurate with what the Big East was worth.

But the Big East presidents, including the ones in the "Catholic 7," rejected the deal, thinking they would be able to squeeze more out of it. Turns out, it was a gargantuan miscalculation that left the Big East in today's mess.

The Big East's current TV deal expires after this basketball season and the next football season. With the mass defections this the past month, the value of that next contract is dwindling, and no network is all that eager to jump in to make a deal when more schools might abandon ship before long. The latest estimate has the conference getting about $40-$50 million per year - and that's assuming everybody stays put.

An optimistic model of $50 million yields a payout of about $4.17 million per year for the nine full members and $3.13 million per year for the four football-only schools (Boise State, San Diego State, East Carolina and Navy in 2015). It's dwarfed by the payouts in the major conferences, though it's still substantially more than what the Mountain West pays, which is around $1 million per school per year.

There is a tug-of-war between the remnants of the Big East and the MWC, vying to be the kingpin of the Group of Five in BCS 2.0. The Big East wants to continue to raid the MWC to pump up its value to potential TV suitors, while the MWC aims to lure Boise State and San Diego State back (though technically they haven't left yet). Both conferences would love to pick off BYU, but neither is likely to succeed because the Cougars are getting about $5-6 million per year from its own TV deal with ESPN as a football independent.

Without Boise State and San Diego State (and BYU), the Mountain West is unlikely to substantially improve on its current TV contract, which is set to expire after the 2014 season. There is much uncertainty surrounding the future of the MWC, with the Big East menacing it as an existential threat.

As for the Big East, being demoted in the new BCS landscape is the lesser of its problems, as it's at risk to further disintegrate from more defections the longer it takes to lock down a TV deal. And if the worst-case scenario should happen - UConn and Cincinnati find new homes while Boise State and San Diego State get cold feet before next July - the Big East becomes Conference USA Lite, circa 2004. In that case, it should expect not much more than Conference USA money.

How much is that? C-USA signed its most recent TV deal in early 2011 with FOX and CBS, worth $14 million per year, total.

(FULL ARTICLE @ SB NATION)

Boise State's Very Big Move

On the face of it, all the conference realignment action seems to have shaken up the college football landscape. But if you take a closer look, you'll notice that all the moving around really just amounted to rearranging the same deck chairs.

In 2006, when the BCS entered its second phase to include five bowls and increase their accessibility by non-automatic qualifying conference members, there were six AQ conferences (plus Notre Dame) consisting of 66 teams. By 2014, if nothing else changes, there will be five AQ conferences (plus Notre Dame) consisting of 65 teams.

Yep, even with all that upheaval, only five teams will see their status change from have-nots to haves (or vice versa): TCU and Utah have joined the big boys' club by leaving the Mountain West for the Big 12 and Pac-12, respectively; and UConn, Cincinnati and South Florida will lose their AQ status with the demotion of the Big East.

Of course, the realignment madness is far from over. Before it's all settled, Cincinnati and UConn likely will find new homes in the AQ conferences, likely either in the ACC or the Big 12, within a season or two. So essentially you're looking at the ascension two teams (TCU and Utah) and the demotion of one (South Florida) when it's all said and done.

So who are we missing here?

There are only three non-AQ teams that have made multiple BCS bowl appearances. While TCU and Utah have been justly rewarded for their excellence, Boise State, 2-0 in its two BCS bowl games, remains on the outside looking in. But the Broncos do have an opportunity here to finally cash in on the fact that they've been the winningest program since joining Division I-A in 1996.

Boise State was supposed to be the centerpiece of a reconstituted Big East when it joins the conference next season as a football-only member. But massive defections by current Big East members, capped by the pullout of the "Catholic 7" basketball schools on Saturday, have changed the outlook of this conference considerably.

Though he reaffirmed Boise State's commitment to the Big East over the summer, president Bob Kustra must reconsider all his options before his school's official entrance to the conference on July 1, 2013. Kustra thus becomes the man of the hour in the realignment game, as his decisions will fashion a domino effect.

He has several options:

* Stick it out in the Big East - Despite the defections of Rutgers, Louisville and the basketball schools, the Big East should still have 12 teams for 2013-2014 and 13 for 2015, if everybody else stays put. The conference will still have AQ status in 2013 though after that it will be dumped into the "Group of Five" with one guaranteed BCS spot among the teams. The Broncos conceivably could win the Big East next season and dominate the Group of Five for years to come.

But the money potential for the Broncos will have shrunk significantly from when they first signed up. At the time, the Big East just turned down a $150 million-per-year TV deal, and now, after the departure of the Catholic 7, the new deal could be worth as little as $40 million annually, leaving Boise State about $2 million per year as opposed to in the $8-9 million range.

* Return to the Mountain West - The Broncos could opt to stay in the conference it joined two years ago and its BCS status beginning in 2014 will be no different from if it had joined the Big East. Assuming they return with either San Diego State and/or BYU, the MWC will have at least 12 teams and be able to stage a conference title game, thus possibly be in position to renegotiate its current TV deal that still has two years left.

But Boise State will take a financial hit for doing this. First, it could be on the hook for a $10 million exit fee even though it never officially played in the Big East. Second, just by being in the Big East the Broncos will collect nearly $2 million in BCS payout in 2013, whereas it would get just a fraction of that if none of the Mountain West teams crashed the BCS party.

* Look for a spot in Big 12 or Pac-12 - To be frank, the first is a longshot, and the second is a non-starter. The Big 12 might be interested in the Broncos, along with maybe BYU, as football-only members, mostly for the purpose of being able to stage a conference championship game. The Pac-12, though, despite commissioner Larry Scott's recent comments, doesn't see a whole lot of value in adding Boise State.

* Become an independent - This is an option Boise State might seriously study and pursue. The Broncos have enough of a brand power to command a decent TV deal and be able to schedule an attractive collection of teams annually. The risks of being an independent are that unlike Notre Dame, Boise State will not get any kind of guarantees or preferential treatment from the BCS bowls; and if the program goes into a slump, it will quickly sink back into irrelevance with no way out.

Kustra has a very important decision to make. But unless the Big 12 or Pac-12 come calling, his best option might be doing nothing - taking his chances with the Big East.

(FULL ARTICLE @ SB NATION)

The End of the Big East

It's been said that the Holy Roman Empire was neither Holy, nor Roman and not much of an empire. Kinda like the modern-day Big East Conference. And the Big East, as a football power conference, is about to join the Holy Roman Empire in the ash heap of history.

The seven non-football members of the Big East are expected to pull out - maybe as soon as next week - leaving a rump conference constituted of basically members of Conference USA, circa 2004. While the BCS likely will keep the Big East as an AQ conference in 2013, that'll simply mark the end of its football relevance.

Even if nothing else changes, by the 2014 season, only one of the Big East's seven founding members - Connecticut - will still be in the conference. In fact, UConn will be the only member at the end of the 2004 season that will still remain in the Big East. Of the 12 teams currently expected to play a Big East schedule in 2014, eight used to play in Conference USA, two in the Mountain West, plus Temple, a one-time Big East football member that was invited back in after getting booted.

OK, take a deep breath and let your head stop spinning. Here's our best guess for what the major conferences might look like by 2014-15:

• Big Ten (16 teams): Add Rutgers, Maryland, Virginia, Kansas
• ACC (14 teams): Lose Maryland, Virginia, Florida State; add Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Louisville, Cincinnati, UConn
• Big 12 (10 teams): Lose Kansas; add Florida State
• Pac-12 (12 teams): No change
• SEC (14 teams): No change
• Mountain West (12 teams): Add Boise State, San Diego State, Utah State, San Jose State
• Big East (8 teams): Temple, South Florida, Central Florida, Memphis, SMU, Houston, Tulane, East Carolina

(FULL ARTICLE @ SB NATION)

The Guru's BlogPoll (Week 11)

The Guru's BlogPoll ballot, with notes below:

BCS Guru Ballot - Week 11

Rank	Team	Delta
1	LSU Tigers	--
2	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	2
3	Alabama Crimson Tide	2
4	Oregon Ducks	2
5	Arkansas Razorbacks	2
6	Stanford Cardinal	-4
7	Houston Cougars	1
8	Boise St. Broncos	-5
9	Clemson Tigers	1
10	Virginia Tech Hokies	1
11	Oklahoma Sooners	-2
12	Kansas St. Wildcats	1
13	South Carolina Gamecocks	1
14	Georgia Bulldogs	1
15	Michigan St. Spartans	1
16	Wisconsin Badgers	1
17	Nebraska Cornhuskers	1
18	Penn St. Nittany Lions	-6
19	Michigan Wolverines	--
20	USC Trojans	--
21	TCU Horned Frogs	4
22	Southern Miss Golden Eagles	--
23	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	--
24	Florida St. Seminoles	--
25	Cincinnati Bearcats	-4
Dropouts: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Texas Longhorns

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

* Both Stanford and Boise State too their obligatory drops after losing on Saturday, but I cut Stanford a bit more slack because of the competition. Keep in mind that Arkansas lost by 24 points to Alabama and yet is still in the top five. Stanford lost by 23 to Oregon.

* Houston gets a slight bump but the Cougars will now be tested, going into the toughest part of their schedule with games against SMU (which beat TCU) and Tulsa (whose only losses were to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Boise State) left. A sweep of those games will land Houston in the C-USA title game against potentially 11-1 Southern Miss. The Cougs have a lot of work to do to stay unbeaten.

* Oklahoma was idle but dropped two spots. Of all the teams in the top 10, the Sooners by far have the worst loss. They were beaten by a Texas Tech team (in a game that actually wasn't that close) that went on to lose by an average of 42 points in its next three games. That really can't be so easily overlooked.

* Cincinnati remains the only Big East team on the ballot. But with the season-ending injury to QB Zach Collaros, it's only a matter of time before the Bearcats take a dive.

* New teams that made the ballot this week: Notre Dame, Florida State.

* Conference-by-conference tally: SEC (5), Big Ten (5), Big 12 (3), Pac-12 (3), ACC (3), C-USA (2), MWC (2), Big East (1), Independent (1).

The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Final Regular Season)

The Guru's final regular-season BlogPoll ballot. Very little movement on top, with a couple of notes below (including why Auburn is where it is):

BCS Guru Ballot - Week 15

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Oregon Ducks	--
2	Auburn Tigers	--
3	TCU Horned Frogs	--
4	Stanford Cardinal	--
5	Nevada Wolf Pack	--
6	Boise St. Broncos	--
7	Wisconsin Badgers	--
8	Ohio St. Buckeyes	--
9	Michigan St. Spartans	--
10	Oklahoma Sooners	4
11	Virginia Tech Hokies	5
12	Arkansas Razorbacks	-2
13	LSU Tigers	-2
14	Nebraska Cornhuskers	-2
15	Missouri Tigers	-2
16	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	-1
17	Utah Utes	--
18	Alabama Crimson Tide	--
19	Texas A&M Aggies	--
20	Hawaii Warriors	1
21	San Diego St. Aztecs	3
22	South Carolina Gamecocks	-2
23	Mississippi St. Bulldogs	--
24	Air Force Falcons	--
25	Florida St. Seminoles	-3
Dropouts: Northern Illinois Huskies

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

* I seriously considered dropping Auburn off the ballot altogether, as some of the Heisman voters have done vis-a-vis Cam Newton, but thought better of it. Newton may be an ineligible player (this is far from decided, folks, as the NCAA has not completed its investigation), but it would be grossly unfair to punish all the Tigers players. Therefore, Auburn stays on my ballot completely on its own merit. But needless to say, my opinion that the NCAA and SEC have done nearly everything wrong on the Newton case remains unchanged.

* Oklahoma and Virginia Tech move up by virtue of winning their respective conference championship games. The losers in those games (Nebraska, Florida State) are not severely punished.

* Seven conference champions are on the ballot, but Big East, Conference USA, MAC and Sun Belt did not make the cut. UConn does not quite deserve to get on it after blowout losses to Michigan and Temple (which is unfairly left out of a bowl despite an 8-4 record). Central Florida just misses the cut because it didn't beat any quality opponent. And Northern Illinois, which was on the ballot last week, drops out after losing in the MAC title game.

* Other teams considered: Central Florida, Connecticut, West Virginia.

Poofffffff ... Goes the Mountain West

Well, so much for all that talk about the Mountain West getting an automatic bid to the BCS.

One weekend of upsets restored order somewhat in the BCS universe. Each of the six BCS conferences has at least one team among the top 10 in the latest BCS Standings (simulated). The only BCS buster left standing, for now, is Boise State, who now firmly controls its own destiny for a second BCS bowl berth in three years.

The biggest loser over the weekend is the Mountain West (trumps even USC, but more on the Trojans later). BYU was mercilessly dissected at home by a Florida State team that nearly lost to I-AA Jacksonville State a week earlier. Utah's 16-game winning streak came to an end after its rally at Oregon fell short. As of now, TCU, with two nondescript victories, is the only undefeated MWC member that has a shot at a BCS bowl berth.

Mount St. Helens or Mountain West?

Both the ACC and Big East, much maligned throughout 2008 and in the offseason, made their way back into the top 10. Miami had a meteoric rise, checking in at No. 8, thanks mostly to its bitter rival FSU's romp in Provo. Cincinnati, after a road win at Oregon State, is now the top Big East team at No. 10.

Right behind Cincinnati is USC, last week's No. 1 team in the simulated BCS standings. The Trojans' stumble against Washington may not be fatal for their BCS championship hopes, but it's nonetheless a severe blow. The reason that the Trojans aren't quite out of it is because in two weeks, they'll play a Cal team that's now ranked in the top 5. And since the Pac-10 is fairly strong this season, USC will have a chance to improve its computer rankings, unlike last season when it was never able to recover from an early season loss at Oregon State.

At the top of the standings is Alabama, which now has a commanding lead over No. 2 Texas, which was also No. 2 last week. Florida moves up a spot to No. 3, just barely ahead of LSU, who will present the Gators' toughest road test in three weeks.

The Tigers, in effect, would be ahead of Florida if the other two computer rankings (Anderson & Hester and Peter Wolfe) are available. The Gators are still dogged by their soft schedule and as of now are only getting significant support from Billingsley among the computers. This trend continues to underscore the fact that while Florida will be fine as long as it remains unbeaten, one loss most likely will finish off the Gators for 2009.

BCS Weekly News Roundup (Sept. 11)

POLLS ALL ABOUT (MIS)PERCEPTIONS (Las Vegas Review-Journal, Sept. 10) - It doesn't matter which voter from The Associated Press Top 25 college football poll said it. The message is far more important, because it again cuts to a reality of how many continue to buy into that cartel known as Bowl Championship Series. It's a mindset thing. And it's wrong.

TRESSEL MUST BEAT USC TO KEEP FANS HAPPY (FoxSports.com, Sept. 10) - There's a very good reason he's never devoted so much as one idle thought to the pursuit of his own popularity. Why worry about something that's always been as certain as the sunrise? It's different now for Ohio State coach Jim Tressel. Way different.

BRADFORD'S INJURY SHAKES UP BCS RACE (Los Angeles Times, Sept. 10) - Oklahoma's Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback will miss time with a shoulder separation. Just how long he's out will impact the Sooners and also possibly the BCS hopes of Texas and Oklahoma State.

SCRAM, BIG EAST, MAKE WAY FOR MWC (HowtoWatchSports.com, Sept. 10) - The BCS is an unfair, monopolistic, money-driven system with a million flaws. But here’s a new one that’s coming to a head this season. The Big East has no business being included in the BCS while the Mountain West Conference is excluded.

ACC-ELERATED DECLINE (Saurian Sagacity, Sept. 6) - With conferences like the Mountain West on the rise, the argument for blowing up the current BCS system continues to gain strength, especially when fading powers like the ACC get automatic BCS admittance for their conference champion.

BCS Weekly News Roundup (Aug. 23)

ASSOCIATED PRESS PRESEASON TOP 25 (CBS Sports, Aug. 23) - Florida received an unprecedented 58 of 60 first-place votes and was two points short of being the consensus preseason No. 1.

MOUNTAIN WEST URGES BCS ACTION (Denver Post, Aug. 21) - Mountain West Conference commissioner Craig Thompson reiterated his cause to change the selection process for the BCS bowl games to include qualified teams from all conferences. Earlier this year, Thompson presented a proposal to the BCS committee that was turned down. "We've talked all we can," Thompson said.

GATOR BOWL DROPS BIG EAST, GOES FOR BIG TEN (Florida Times-Union, Aug. 19) - The Gator Bowl and the Big East Conference have parted ways after 14 years, clearing the way for new conference affiliations in Jacksonville's New Year's Day bowl that will include some combination of the Atlantic Coast Conference, Southeastern Conference and the Big Ten.

SEC'S JOKE OF A CUPCAKE SCHEDULE (Birmingham News, Aug. 17) - When the SEC schedules non-conference games, it's a joke. It's ought to be embarrassing. This is the best conference in the nation, a league that wants for nothing, a league with not only record attendance but a record TV deal. But this non-conference schedule, ugghhh, it's awful.

What the Coaches Poll Wrought

It's the first preseason poll of significance, and it's the first element of the 2009 BCS standings to be revealed. So when the USA Today Coaches Poll was released last Friday, it was immediately taken apart and analyzed.

Yeah, it may be a preseason poll, but don't think for a moment that it means little.

While the top of the poll yielded little surprise - defending BCS national champion Florida checked in at No. 1 - it's apparent that Coalition members (i.e. non-BCS schools) will have just about no chance for a spot in the BCS title game, and that one loss will doom their shot at even a BCS bowl appearance.

How can that be so quickly ordained after a short glance of the preseason poll, you ask?

Simple. The preseason poll in college football is a lot like the starting grid in a Formula One car race. There are few opportunities for passes, so where you start often times determine where you'll finish.

Four Coalition teams are in the top 25, led by Boise State at No. 16. This does not bode well for those teams (also Mountain West members TCU, Utah and BYU) to have any shot at the BCS national title game. In the past five years, only teams ranked in the preseason top 10 in the Coaches Poll made it to the BCS title game. This year, 9 of the top 10 teams will face each other at least once before the halfway point of the season, which means even a loss will keep these teams in the top 10, ahead of any unbeaten Coalition teams.

What about Coalition teams playing themselves into national title contention? After all, doesn't BYU open the season at Oklahoma?

Yes, but here's the rub. Even if the Cougars pull off a monumental upset at Norman, will they vault all the way up into the top 5? Not likely, not from where they start at No. 24. And a loss effectively ends BYU's BCS bowl hopes after one game, even if it goes on to win the MWC championship.

Contrast that to the Big East, one of the six BCS conferences. There's not a team from that conference that may even be in the top 10 by the end of the season (the highest preseason ranking is Cincinnati, at No. 29), but it's guaranteed a BCS bowl berth. Of course, based on our own research, the Big East is still well ahead of the MWC in overall performance - but there was little logic to grant the Big East a spot in the BCS for the next five years, as it was done before the start of this season.

Some might be quick to jump on a potential conspiracy by BCS conference coaches to keep non-BCS teams down in the polls to ensure as many BCS teams get the 10 BCS bowl spots as possible. But that link is tenuous at best.

There are 59 voters in the coaches poll and 25 of them (42%) are from non-BCS conferences. That roughly corresponds with the actual proportion of non-BCS teams (54 of 120, 45%) in Division I-A. If BCS conference coaches are keeping the non-BCS teams down in the polls, then the Coalition coaches are not exactly doing a bang-up job of propping up their brethren.

But just how everybody is actually voting? We'll never know. As usual, the Coaches Poll is secret ballots until the final poll of the season. And after this season, they intend to revert back to secret ballots for the entire season, including the final poll, over the protests of the BCS commissioners. So in essence, it remains the most controversial and non-transparent part of the BCS formula, and it accounts for one-third of the total.

There is a simple solution to this. After 2009, the BCS must dump the Coaches Poll.

BCS Era No. 5 -- Miami (Fla.)

Overall Record: 94-30 (.758), 7th
BCS Bowl Record: 3-1 (4, 6th)
National Titles (Game Record): 1 (1-1)
Final AP Rankings: 20-15-2-1-2-5-11-17-U-U (Top 5: 4/Top 10: 4)



The Hurricanes ruled the BCS roost in the beginning of the 2000s, losing just four games in a four-year span. Miami played in consecutive BCS title games and won 34 straight games before losing to Ohio State in double overtime in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl. The 2001 edition is considered among the best college football teams of all time.

But just like Florida State, the ‘Canes have fallen on hard times of late and coach Larry Coker was ousted after the 2006 season. The Randy Shannon era also didn’t get off to an auspicious beginning as Miami finished with a losing record (5-7) and missed a bowl game for the first time since 1997. The ‘Canes, who were also supposed to dominate the ACC, haven’t won a single title since joining the conference in 2004.

Ten Years of BCS: 2002

The Guru's Note: Beginning in June, the Guru will publish a review of each of the 10 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. In this series -- Ten Years of BCS -- the Guru will examine the results from these seasons -- who got lucky and who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear weekly leading up to the 2008 season.

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After two years of turmoil, BCS got a big break in 2002 as two undefeated teams -- the only ones -- met in a memorable title game that wasn't decided until after two overtimes. This time, the only controversy came only during the game.

But just like in 1999, while the BCS could pat itself on the back all it wants, the reality is that a caveman could've picked the Miami-Ohio State matchup -- and he wouldn't even need the BCS standings to muddle his thoughts.

After Oklahoma was upset in the first week of November, it became clear that the title game would feature defending champion and No. 1-ranked Miami and second-ranked Ohio State. The Buckeyes had to survive a tight battle with arch rival Michigan, 14-9, while the 'Canes romped through the final weeks, bidding to become the first team in the BCS era to repeat as champions.

Ohio State, riding on the back of the criminally talented freshman Maurice Clarett, would spoil Miami's quest, but it needed two big breaks to do it. First, Hurricanes running back Willis McGahee tore his ACL in the third quarter, slowing down the Miami offensive powerhouse. Then, just as the 'Canes seemingly clinched victory on the game's final play, a pass-interference (wait, or was it defensive holding?) flag came out five seconds later that gave the Buckeyes new life.

Was that a good call? You decide.


(Warning: The neutrality of the commentary is in question)


But the most significant development of this season went mostly unnoticed. After losing two of its first five games, USC blew through the rest of the Pac-10 and routed Iowa in the Orange Bowl, led by Heisman-winning quarterback Carson Palmer. The Trojans would re-enter college football's top echelon and become the most BCS-relevant juggernaut for years to come.


Final BCS standings: 1. Miami, 2. Ohio State, 3. Georgia, 4. USC.

Alternative Methods:

* Using present day formula: 1. Miami, 2. Ohio State.

* Using 1998-2000 formula: 1. Miami, 2. Ohio State.

* Using human polls only: 1. Miami, 2. Ohio State.

* Plus-One: Miami vs. USC; Ohio State vs. Georgia.


Controversy:

* The Rose Bowl in Miami: The real Rose Bowl lost out on the traditional Big Ten-Pac-10 matchup and was none too pleased about it. Adding insult to more insult, the Orange Bowl invoked a little-known BCS backroom rule to secure a USC-Iowa matchup that announced the arrival of the Trojan Empire.

Here's how it happened:

After the Fiesta Bowl took the top two teams for the national title game, the Orange Bowl snagged No. 5 Iowa, the Big Ten runner-up. The Rose Bowl was next. With Pac-10 co-champ Washington State (which beat USC head-to-head) already anchored, and Iowa unavailable, the Rose took Big 12 champion Oklahoma.

The Sugar Bowl was next, ready to invite No. 4 USC to play No. 3 Georgia. But the Orange Bowl took advantage of an exception clause that allowed a higher-paying bowl to jump another once every four years and swiped the Trojans away. The Sugar Bowl was stuck with SEC champion Georgia and ACC winner No. 14 Florida State.

BCS Formula Review: Computer rankings by Herman Matthews and Dave Rothman were dropped and the New York Times added back in, making it a total of seven. The lowest ranking was discarded and the remaining six averaged.

All rankings now purged the margin-of-victory component, as Jeff Sagarin introduced a new ELO-CHESS rating that removed margin of victory, reluctantly -- in his words: "In ELO-CHESS, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence, which makes it very 'politically correct'."

Analysis: The BCS celebrated its most successful season yet, and decided to take the rest of the year off to congratulate itself. The Miami-Ohio State game was a boon to the BCS and seemingly validated its existence -- without the participation of the Big Ten, Pac-10 and the Rose Bowl, this matchup wouldn't have happened in the pre-BCS era. But the next two years would bring nothing but trouble for the system, especially 2003, when the mother of all controversies would force the BCS to blow itself up.

Ten Years of BCS: 2001

The Guru's Note: Beginning in June, the Guru will publish a review of each of the 10 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. In this series -- Ten Years of BCS -- the Guru will examine the results from these seasons -- who got lucky and who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear weekly leading up to the 2008 season.

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If the BCS was shaken by the 2000 controversy, then it was rocked by an earthquake in 2001.

Heading into the final weeks of the regular season, it appeared that a Miami-Nebraska showdown in the Rose Bowl would be inevitable. After Nebraska's 20-10 win over previously unbeaten Oklahoma, Miami and Nebraska were ranked 1-2 for the next four consecutive weeks, with non-BCS Brigham Young the only other unbeaten team.

Then a series of upsets changed everything.

Heading into their final regular-season game, the Huskers still needed a victory in Boulder to clinch the Big 12 North against two-loss Colorado. But the Buffaloes didn't comply, and thrashed Nebraska, 62-36, in a game that wasn't even that close. Nebraska tumbled to No. 6 in the polls and its national title aspirations seemingly squashed.

After Nebraska's loss, Florida claimed the all-important No. 2 spot. The Gators just needed to beat Tennessee to secure a berth in the SEC championship game. Annually played in the third week of September, the Florida-Tennessee game in 2001 was postponed because of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. The Vols surprised Florida with a 34-32 victory, in what turned out to be Steve Spurrier's final regular-season game as Gators coach.

The victory catapulted Tennessee from No. 6 to No. 2 in the BCS standings after No. 4 Colorado upset No. 3 Texas in the Big XII title game. Now all the Vols had to do was beat LSU in the SEC title game to secure their second BCS title game appearance in four years.

In the meantime, left on the sideline seething was Oregon. The Ducks, with its only defeat to two-loss Stanford, were No. 3 in both polls. Yet, they were ranked only No. 5 in the BCS standings, behind two-loss Colorado, who had been beaten by Fresno State and also Texas in the regular season. The Buffs, after winning the rematch against the Longhorns, had their issue, too: Somehow, they were ranked No. 4 in the BCS, behind the Nebraska team that had been idle since being annihilated in Boulder.

The BCS would've dodged a bullet if Tennessee could just take care of business against three-loss LSU, which had been beaten in Knoxville earlier in the season. But the Tigers didn't oblige, pulling out a 31-20 victory in the SEC title game, completing the frenzied final three weeks of the season with one more upset.

So who was going to play undefeated Miami? Oregon, now No. 2 in both polls, seemed to have the strongest argument. Colorado, with an impressive late-season run but two losses, wanted to have a say, too. The team that really shouldn't be in the discussion was Nebraska, which had snuck back up to No. 4 after the spate of late-season upsets.

But it was Nebraska that claimed the No. 2 spot in the final BCS standings, edging out Colorado by five-hundredth (.05) of a percentage point. Oregon, with a low computer average and hampered by its strength-of-schedule rating, was a distant fourth and never had a shot.

The Buffaloes howled for weeks after narrowly losing out. But the truth is that they were even that close to Nebraska only because of the new "quality win" component, added after the 2000 season as make-good to Miami's snub. Had the 2000 formula been applied, Colorado would've been fourth, behind Nebraska by nearly two full points and also Oregon as well.

At the end, the Ducks were really the aggrieved party, and they proved it by destroying Colorado, 38-16, in the Fiesta Bowl. Miami finished its undefeated season with a ho-hum 34-14 victory over Nebraska, universally disparaged as being undeserving. While the Hurricanes celebrated their national championship, the BCS was sent back to the drawing board once again.

Final BCS Standings: 1. Miami, 2. Nebraska, 3. Colorado, 4. Oregon.

Alternative Methods:

Using present day formula: 1. Miami, 2. Oregon, 3. Colorado, 4. Nebraska. (Oregon would've been a comfortable No. 2, and there would've been little controversy)

Using 1998-2000 formula: 1. Miami, 2. Nebraska, 3. Oregon, 4. Colorado. (Nebraska would've been well ahead of Oregon)

Using human polls only: 1. Miami, 2. Oregon, 3. Colorado, 4. Nebraska.

Plus-One: Miami vs. Nebraska; Oregon vs. Colorado.

Controversy:

Other than Nebraska getting into the national championship game in the Rose Bowl, not really. (But that's like saying a car hit my wife and then ran over my dog, but other than that, it's been a great day.) The only other one-loss teams from major conferences, Illinois (Big Ten) and Maryland (ACC), were both throttled in BCS bowl games. No. 5 Florida was the only at-large selection, and as it turned out, sent out coach Spurrier to the NFL with a 56-23 rout of Maryland at the Orange Bowl.

BCS Formula Review: Wes Colley (of the Colley Matrix) and Peter Wolfe were added to the computer ratings, replacing the New York Times and Richard Dunkel. The move ostensibly was to lessen the impact of margin of victory in computer rankings. Of the eight ratings for each team, the highest and lowest were thrown out and the remainder averaged.

Also, a "quality win" component was added to the team's final total, in response to Miami's being snubbed in 2000. This scheme called for teams to receive bonus points by beating other teams in the final BCS top 15. As a result, Colorado's late-season wins over Nebraska and Texas gave it a boost of 2.3 points, nearly knocking Nebraska out of the No. 2 spot.

Analysis: The 2001 mess probably should've been a wake-up call for the BCS to completely revamp its formula. Yet, the powers-that-be continued to scrutinize the computers and margin of victory as the problem areas, overlooking the real issues that made the cumbersome system dysfunctional. The next season brought a big relief -- through no credit to the BCS system -- but the calm would prove short-lived.