For all intents and purposes, the BCS era is over. There is still the championship game and so-called BCS bowls to be played, but as a mechanism to set up postseason play, it's already a museum piece.
The BCS will be missed.
For all its flaws, the BCS's biggest contribution to college football is that it made the sport national. After the Big Ten, Pac-12 and Rose Bowl grudgingly signed on in 1998, the attraction of No. 1 vs. No. 2 forced fans (and the media) to care about games outside of their own region. For powerhouse programs, it was no longer good enough just to win the conference championship.
Of course, the BCS had its problems and underwent constant tinkering that bordered on "making up stuff as we go" at times. It still gave us a split national championship (in 2003), a highly questionable title-game rematch (in 2011), and a few bogus bowl pairings. But overall, the BCS did its job probably better than could have been expected 16 years ago.
As someone who's followed the BCS from its inception and actively blogged about it since 2006, I have plenty to say about the good, bad and ugly of the era. In fact, I'll be writing a series that covers each of the BCS's 16 seasons, with retrospectives and how things might have worked out had there been a four-team playoff.
And as a tease, here is my view on the best and worst things of the BCS era:
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Showing posts with label Ten Years of BCS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ten Years of BCS. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Ten Years of BCS: 2006
BCS had its dream season in 2005. Too bad it had to wake up for 2006.
Throughout most of the year, it looked as if the BCS would have its first intra-conference rematch, pitting Ohio State against Michigan. The Big Ten's bitter rivals matched each other game-for-game on a collision course of unbeatens while other contenders fell away.
Then on the eve of the 1-vs.-2 showdown at the Horseshoe, Bo Schembechler, Michigan's legendary coach (and former Ohio State assistant), passed away.
The two teams joined battle with raw emotions, if very little defense. The surprisingly high-scoring game was more or less decided by Michigan linebacker Shawn Crable's late hit on Ohio State QB Troy Smith late in the game. The Buckeyes won, 42-39.
But Michigan stayed at No. 2 in the BCS standings even after the game, making a rematch in Arizona a real possibility. Then the Wolverines began to fall, week after week, without playing a single down.
First, they were passed by USC, after a thrashing of overrated Notre Dame at the Coliseum. And then, just as when it appeared that the Trojans would play in its third consecutive BCS title game, they suffered a monumental choke job against UCLA at the Rose Bowl. Michigan's rematch with Ohio State was on again.
Only for a few hours, as it turned out. After Florida dispatched Arkansas, with some difficulty, in the SEC Championship Game, the Gators leapfrogged the Wolverines (is that physiologically possible?) and got the coveted date with the Buckeyes.
Ruining the rematch turned out to be a good thing in this sense: Both Ohio State and Michigan proved to be ... frauds. The Buckeyes were mauled by Florida in a game that was never close after Ohio State scored on the opening kickoff. Michigan was likewise annihilated by USC in the Rose Bowl.
Florida got its first national championship under Urban Meyer, thanks to a lucky break - USC losing against a 20-point underdog UCLA - and a massive voter defection (more on that later). But at the end, very little argument may be made about the Gators' legitimacy as the BCS national champion.
This was also the first year of the double-host format, where the bowl hosting the BCS national championship game also would have its regular bowl game. With this arrangement, teams qualifying for BCS bowls would increase from eight to 10.
The main beneficiary of this change was supposed to be non-BCS conference teams, now with better access to BCS bowls. And undefeated Boise State took full advantage.
In the same University of Phoenix Stadium that was to host the BCS title game, Boise State shocked and enthralled college football fans with its delightful 43-42 overtime win over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. The Broncos tied the game on a hook-and-ladder, won the game on a Statue of Liberty, and capped it off with a marriage proposal as running back Ian Johnson got down to one knee in front of girlfriend Chrissy Popadics on national TV.
She said "yes!"
Final BCS Standings: 1. Ohio State, 2. Florida, 3. Michigan, 4. LSU.
Alternative Methods -
Using 1998-2003 (BCS I) Formula: 1. Ohio State, 2. Michigan, 3. Florida, 4. LSU.
Using human polls only: 1. Ohio State, 2. Florida, 3. Michigan, 4. LSU.
Plus One: Ohio State vs. USC; Florida vs. Michigan.
Controversy: Michigan fans won't soon forget how fickle voters defected from their team. After losing to Ohio State, the Wolverines were still comfortably ahead of both USC and Florida in both the Coaches and Harris polls. But that soon changed.
Entering the final week of the regular season, Michigan was ahead of Florida by 86 points in the Harris Poll and 40 points in the Coaches Poll. But after Florida's win over Arkansas, the Gators went ahead of Michigan by 38 points in the Harris Poll (a swing of 114 points) and 26 in the Coaches Poll (a swing of 66 points). In both cases, the voters were determined to avoid a Michigan-Ohio State rematch. With Florida and Michigan dead even in the computer rankings, the voters' wish carried the day.
BCS Formula Review: With the formula now set, the only revelation of 2006 was that the Harris Poll proved to be no better (or worse) than any other human polls. The Harris voters, like the coaches (and the writers in the AP poll) defected from Michigan to push, first USC, then Florida, into the BCS title game. As the human polls now comprise two-thirds of the BCS formula, essentially the computer rankings are rendered meaningless in a tight race.
Analysis: Did the right team win the BCS championship? Perhaps. But had USC not inexplicably gagged against a team that it beat, 66-19, the year before and had won seven straight against, Florida would never have made it to the title game. There would've been protests from both Michigan and Florida after USC presumably walloped Ohio State.
The two best teams of the season, as indicated by bowl results, never got to play each other. USC blew its chance at a third national title in four years, but the Trojans and Gators would never have gotten a chance to play each other anyway. Not with Ohio State being insulated in the Big Ten and going undefeated.
History would repeat itself in 2007 ... and 2008.
Throughout most of the year, it looked as if the BCS would have its first intra-conference rematch, pitting Ohio State against Michigan. The Big Ten's bitter rivals matched each other game-for-game on a collision course of unbeatens while other contenders fell away.
Then on the eve of the 1-vs.-2 showdown at the Horseshoe, Bo Schembechler, Michigan's legendary coach (and former Ohio State assistant), passed away.
The two teams joined battle with raw emotions, if very little defense. The surprisingly high-scoring game was more or less decided by Michigan linebacker Shawn Crable's late hit on Ohio State QB Troy Smith late in the game. The Buckeyes won, 42-39.
But Michigan stayed at No. 2 in the BCS standings even after the game, making a rematch in Arizona a real possibility. Then the Wolverines began to fall, week after week, without playing a single down.
First, they were passed by USC, after a thrashing of overrated Notre Dame at the Coliseum. And then, just as when it appeared that the Trojans would play in its third consecutive BCS title game, they suffered a monumental choke job against UCLA at the Rose Bowl. Michigan's rematch with Ohio State was on again.
Only for a few hours, as it turned out. After Florida dispatched Arkansas, with some difficulty, in the SEC Championship Game, the Gators leapfrogged the Wolverines (is that physiologically possible?) and got the coveted date with the Buckeyes.
Ruining the rematch turned out to be a good thing in this sense: Both Ohio State and Michigan proved to be ... frauds. The Buckeyes were mauled by Florida in a game that was never close after Ohio State scored on the opening kickoff. Michigan was likewise annihilated by USC in the Rose Bowl.
Florida got its first national championship under Urban Meyer, thanks to a lucky break - USC losing against a 20-point underdog UCLA - and a massive voter defection (more on that later). But at the end, very little argument may be made about the Gators' legitimacy as the BCS national champion.
This was also the first year of the double-host format, where the bowl hosting the BCS national championship game also would have its regular bowl game. With this arrangement, teams qualifying for BCS bowls would increase from eight to 10.
The main beneficiary of this change was supposed to be non-BCS conference teams, now with better access to BCS bowls. And undefeated Boise State took full advantage.
In the same University of Phoenix Stadium that was to host the BCS title game, Boise State shocked and enthralled college football fans with its delightful 43-42 overtime win over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. The Broncos tied the game on a hook-and-ladder, won the game on a Statue of Liberty, and capped it off with a marriage proposal as running back Ian Johnson got down to one knee in front of girlfriend Chrissy Popadics on national TV.
She said "yes!"
Final BCS Standings: 1. Ohio State, 2. Florida, 3. Michigan, 4. LSU.
Alternative Methods -
Using 1998-2003 (BCS I) Formula: 1. Ohio State, 2. Michigan, 3. Florida, 4. LSU.
Using human polls only: 1. Ohio State, 2. Florida, 3. Michigan, 4. LSU.
Plus One: Ohio State vs. USC; Florida vs. Michigan.
Controversy: Michigan fans won't soon forget how fickle voters defected from their team. After losing to Ohio State, the Wolverines were still comfortably ahead of both USC and Florida in both the Coaches and Harris polls. But that soon changed.
Entering the final week of the regular season, Michigan was ahead of Florida by 86 points in the Harris Poll and 40 points in the Coaches Poll. But after Florida's win over Arkansas, the Gators went ahead of Michigan by 38 points in the Harris Poll (a swing of 114 points) and 26 in the Coaches Poll (a swing of 66 points). In both cases, the voters were determined to avoid a Michigan-Ohio State rematch. With Florida and Michigan dead even in the computer rankings, the voters' wish carried the day.
BCS Formula Review: With the formula now set, the only revelation of 2006 was that the Harris Poll proved to be no better (or worse) than any other human polls. The Harris voters, like the coaches (and the writers in the AP poll) defected from Michigan to push, first USC, then Florida, into the BCS title game. As the human polls now comprise two-thirds of the BCS formula, essentially the computer rankings are rendered meaningless in a tight race.
Analysis: Did the right team win the BCS championship? Perhaps. But had USC not inexplicably gagged against a team that it beat, 66-19, the year before and had won seven straight against, Florida would never have made it to the title game. There would've been protests from both Michigan and Florida after USC presumably walloped Ohio State.
The two best teams of the season, as indicated by bowl results, never got to play each other. USC blew its chance at a third national title in four years, but the Trojans and Gators would never have gotten a chance to play each other anyway. Not with Ohio State being insulated in the Big Ten and going undefeated.
History would repeat itself in 2007 ... and 2008.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Ten Years of BCS: 2005
Without a doubt, in the short history of the BCS, 2005 was its crowning achievement. It was its best season. It was its most controversy-free season. And it ended with its best game, in the best setting possible for a college football game - the Rose Bowl.
It was a dream season for the BCS.
USC, after winning back-to-back AP national titles, was back for an unprecedented three-peat. It had a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback who surprised everyone by returning for his senior season. It had a soon-to-be Heisman-winning running back. It had NFL first-round picks up the ying-yang on offense. But its defense was somewhat suspect.
No matter, the Trojans blew through the schedule by outscoring everybody. They won a thriller in South Bend when their Heisman combo Matt Leinart-Reggie Bush orchestrated a final second touchdown to beat Notre Dame. They escaped Fresno State when Bush produce a career worth of highlights in a single game, piling up 513 total yards. USC rolled into the Rose Bowl for the national championship with a 34-game winning streak after destroying UCLA, 66-19.
Keeping on the Trojans' heels was No. 2 Texas, led by junior quarterback Vince Young, a Heisman hopeful himself. The Longhorns were ranked right behind USC the entire season, and were a juggernaut in their own right. After getting by Ohio State in Columbus in the second game of the season, Texas scored at least 40 points and won by double-digits every game. The Longhorns claimed their date with USC by atomizing Colorado in the Big 12 title game, 70-3.
In this BCS perfect season, everything fell into place. Penn State, the only other team that might otherwise had a claim on the title game, was done in by Michigan's Mario Manningham, who caught a TD pass on the game's final play to thwart perfection for the Lions. Alabama, the last unbeaten team besides USC and Texas, bowed out of the race on Nov. 12 after a loss to LSU.
The national championship game was a classic. The Trojans jumped ahead. The Longhorns took the lead by halftime. USC regained control in the second half and was one play away from finishing off its three-peat. On fourth-and-2 at the Texas 45, with 2:13 remaining and Texas out of timeouts, the Trojans elected to go for a first down instead of punting to protect a 38-33 lead.
Bush, the Heisman winning back, was on the sideline. The Trojans loaded up the left side of the line and ran Lendale White off tackle. It was a play full of machismo. USC had run this play three times in crucial situations in this game and prevailed each time. It dared Texas to stop it.
The Longhorns did. White was stuffed a yard short and Young got the ball back. He methodically drove Texas downfield, scoring the game-winner on fourth-and-5 with 19 seconds left. Texas ended the Trojans' reign and won its first national title since 1970.
Final BCS Standings: 1. USC, 2. Texas, 3. Penn State, 4. Ohio State.
Alternative Methods -
Using 1998-2003 (BCS I) Formula: 1. USC, 2. Texas, 3. Penn State, 4. Ohio State.
Using human polls only: 1. USC, 2. Texas, 3. Penn State, 4. Ohio State.
Plus One: USC vs. Ohio State; Texas vs. Penn State.
Controversy: There was little regarding the BCS. The title game was only slightly marred by instant replay malfunction, which allowed a disputed Texas touchdown to stand in the second quarter. Young's knee was down on the play before he lateraled the ball to Selvin Young, who ran 12 yards for the score to put Texas ahead, 9-7. The play was not reviewed because the equipment wasn't working.
BCS Formula Review: After the controversy of the previous year when Texas leapfrogged California for a Rose Bowl berth, the BCS made another tweak with the formula, out of necessity. A number of AP voters were besieged by angry fans who found fault with their ballots. As a result, the AP sent a cease-and-desist letter demanding that the AP poll be removed from the BCS formula.
The BCS hastily contracted Harris Interactive to furnish a replacement poll, which debuted in 2005. The poll features over 100 voters who are former athletic directors, coaches and players, as well as members of the media. Unlike the AP poll or the coaches poll, the Harris Poll does not have a preseason poll and isn't released until four weeks into the season; and it also does not have am end-of-season final poll.
With the installment of the Harris Poll as part of the standings, the BCS formula would remain unchanged to this day. The 2009 season will be the fifth consecutive with the exact same BCS formula.
Analysis: The USC-Texas game was easily the most-watched BCS championship game and its most thrilling, thanks to the star power of both teams. And the BCS deserved credit for making it happen. Under the previous bowl regime, USC would've played (and most likely, beaten) Penn State in the Rose Bowl whereas Texas would've faced (and also beaten) either one-loss Oregon or two-loss Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl.
The 2006 Rose Bowl also marked the end of the phase I of the BCS bowl rotation. After two consecutive cycles of playing four BCS bowls with eight berths, the BCS, partly under pressure, would expand to a "double-host" setup following the 2005 season. An extra game would be added to allow more access for non-BCS teams. And a championship game was added, to be played a week after the traditional New Year's Day bowl games.
It was a dream season for the BCS.
USC, after winning back-to-back AP national titles, was back for an unprecedented three-peat. It had a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback who surprised everyone by returning for his senior season. It had a soon-to-be Heisman-winning running back. It had NFL first-round picks up the ying-yang on offense. But its defense was somewhat suspect.
No matter, the Trojans blew through the schedule by outscoring everybody. They won a thriller in South Bend when their Heisman combo Matt Leinart-Reggie Bush orchestrated a final second touchdown to beat Notre Dame. They escaped Fresno State when Bush produce a career worth of highlights in a single game, piling up 513 total yards. USC rolled into the Rose Bowl for the national championship with a 34-game winning streak after destroying UCLA, 66-19.
Keeping on the Trojans' heels was No. 2 Texas, led by junior quarterback Vince Young, a Heisman hopeful himself. The Longhorns were ranked right behind USC the entire season, and were a juggernaut in their own right. After getting by Ohio State in Columbus in the second game of the season, Texas scored at least 40 points and won by double-digits every game. The Longhorns claimed their date with USC by atomizing Colorado in the Big 12 title game, 70-3.
In this BCS perfect season, everything fell into place. Penn State, the only other team that might otherwise had a claim on the title game, was done in by Michigan's Mario Manningham, who caught a TD pass on the game's final play to thwart perfection for the Lions. Alabama, the last unbeaten team besides USC and Texas, bowed out of the race on Nov. 12 after a loss to LSU.
The national championship game was a classic. The Trojans jumped ahead. The Longhorns took the lead by halftime. USC regained control in the second half and was one play away from finishing off its three-peat. On fourth-and-2 at the Texas 45, with 2:13 remaining and Texas out of timeouts, the Trojans elected to go for a first down instead of punting to protect a 38-33 lead.
Bush, the Heisman winning back, was on the sideline. The Trojans loaded up the left side of the line and ran Lendale White off tackle. It was a play full of machismo. USC had run this play three times in crucial situations in this game and prevailed each time. It dared Texas to stop it.
The Longhorns did. White was stuffed a yard short and Young got the ball back. He methodically drove Texas downfield, scoring the game-winner on fourth-and-5 with 19 seconds left. Texas ended the Trojans' reign and won its first national title since 1970.
Final BCS Standings: 1. USC, 2. Texas, 3. Penn State, 4. Ohio State.
Alternative Methods -
Using 1998-2003 (BCS I) Formula: 1. USC, 2. Texas, 3. Penn State, 4. Ohio State.
Using human polls only: 1. USC, 2. Texas, 3. Penn State, 4. Ohio State.
Plus One: USC vs. Ohio State; Texas vs. Penn State.
Controversy: There was little regarding the BCS. The title game was only slightly marred by instant replay malfunction, which allowed a disputed Texas touchdown to stand in the second quarter. Young's knee was down on the play before he lateraled the ball to Selvin Young, who ran 12 yards for the score to put Texas ahead, 9-7. The play was not reviewed because the equipment wasn't working.
BCS Formula Review: After the controversy of the previous year when Texas leapfrogged California for a Rose Bowl berth, the BCS made another tweak with the formula, out of necessity. A number of AP voters were besieged by angry fans who found fault with their ballots. As a result, the AP sent a cease-and-desist letter demanding that the AP poll be removed from the BCS formula.
The BCS hastily contracted Harris Interactive to furnish a replacement poll, which debuted in 2005. The poll features over 100 voters who are former athletic directors, coaches and players, as well as members of the media. Unlike the AP poll or the coaches poll, the Harris Poll does not have a preseason poll and isn't released until four weeks into the season; and it also does not have am end-of-season final poll.
With the installment of the Harris Poll as part of the standings, the BCS formula would remain unchanged to this day. The 2009 season will be the fifth consecutive with the exact same BCS formula.
Analysis: The USC-Texas game was easily the most-watched BCS championship game and its most thrilling, thanks to the star power of both teams. And the BCS deserved credit for making it happen. Under the previous bowl regime, USC would've played (and most likely, beaten) Penn State in the Rose Bowl whereas Texas would've faced (and also beaten) either one-loss Oregon or two-loss Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl.
The 2006 Rose Bowl also marked the end of the phase I of the BCS bowl rotation. After two consecutive cycles of playing four BCS bowls with eight berths, the BCS, partly under pressure, would expand to a "double-host" setup following the 2005 season. An extra game would be added to allow more access for non-BCS teams. And a championship game was added, to be played a week after the traditional New Year's Day bowl games.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
BCS Era No. 1 -- USC
Overall Record: 95-32 (.748), 8th
BCS Bowl Record: 5-1 (6, 1st)
National Titles (Game Record): 2 (1-1* - split title with LSU in 2003)
Final AP Rankings: U-U-U-U-4-1-1-2-4-3 (Top 5: 6/Top 10: 6)
What, you were expecting Duke?
USC spotted everyone four years and yet still emerged as the top program in the BCS Era on the sheer dominance of its latter six seasons. After beginning his tenure at Troy with a 6-6 record in 2001, Pete Carroll has led the Trojans to six consecutive BCS bowl berths and Pac-10 championships, at least 11 victories each season and no worse than 4th in the final AP poll.
After starting 2-5 in 2001, the Trojans have gone 74-9 under Carroll and won 34 consecutive games between 2003-2005. USC won two national championships and lost its bid for an unprecedented third in a heartbreaking loss to Texas in the 2006 Rose Bowl – USC’s only BCS bowl loss. The Men of Troy also hauled home three more Heisman Trophies (Carson Palmer 2002, Matt Leinart 2004, Reggie Bush 2005), matching Notre Dame and Ohio State with seven winners all-time.
About the only thing that might stop this college football hegemon is the NCAA. With the Bush investigation wrapping up, there are indications that stiff penalties including forfeiture of games, recruiting losses and postseason sanctions may be imposed. Short of that, there is no end of this Trojan Dynasty in sight.
BCS Bowl Record: 5-1 (6, 1st)
National Titles (Game Record): 2 (1-1* - split title with LSU in 2003)
Final AP Rankings: U-U-U-U-4-1-1-2-4-3 (Top 5: 6/Top 10: 6)
What, you were expecting Duke?
USC spotted everyone four years and yet still emerged as the top program in the BCS Era on the sheer dominance of its latter six seasons. After beginning his tenure at Troy with a 6-6 record in 2001, Pete Carroll has led the Trojans to six consecutive BCS bowl berths and Pac-10 championships, at least 11 victories each season and no worse than 4th in the final AP poll.
After starting 2-5 in 2001, the Trojans have gone 74-9 under Carroll and won 34 consecutive games between 2003-2005. USC won two national championships and lost its bid for an unprecedented third in a heartbreaking loss to Texas in the 2006 Rose Bowl – USC’s only BCS bowl loss. The Men of Troy also hauled home three more Heisman Trophies (Carson Palmer 2002, Matt Leinart 2004, Reggie Bush 2005), matching Notre Dame and Ohio State with seven winners all-time.
About the only thing that might stop this college football hegemon is the NCAA. With the Bush investigation wrapping up, there are indications that stiff penalties including forfeiture of games, recruiting losses and postseason sanctions may be imposed. Short of that, there is no end of this Trojan Dynasty in sight.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
BCS Era No. 2 -- Ohio State
Overall Record: 98-27 (.784), 4th
BCS Bowl Record: 4-2 (6, 2nd)
National Titles (Game Record): 1 (1-2)
Final AP Rankings: 2-U-U-U-1-4-20-4-2-5 (Top 5: 6/Top 10: 6)
OK, so the Buckeyes haven’t exactly covered themselves with glory, having been walloped by their SEC foes in the last two BCS title games. But there’s no denying that Jim Tressel has made Ohio State an elite program that’s played in four BCS bowl games in the past five years.
Ohio State has won three consecutive Big Ten championships and will be the prohibitive favorite to win it again this year. The Buckeyes have owned their archrival Michigan in the Tressel era, winning six of seven, including the last four. But Ohio State has to figure out how to beat SEC teams, against whom it has a dreadful 0-9 record, including 0-3 under Tressel.
BCS Bowl Record: 4-2 (6, 2nd)
National Titles (Game Record): 1 (1-2)
Final AP Rankings: 2-U-U-U-1-4-20-4-2-5 (Top 5: 6/Top 10: 6)
OK, so the Buckeyes haven’t exactly covered themselves with glory, having been walloped by their SEC foes in the last two BCS title games. But there’s no denying that Jim Tressel has made Ohio State an elite program that’s played in four BCS bowl games in the past five years.
Ohio State has won three consecutive Big Ten championships and will be the prohibitive favorite to win it again this year. The Buckeyes have owned their archrival Michigan in the Tressel era, winning six of seven, including the last four. But Ohio State has to figure out how to beat SEC teams, against whom it has a dreadful 0-9 record, including 0-3 under Tressel.
Friday, September 19, 2008
BCS Era No. 3 -- Oklahoma
Overall Record: 102-28 (.785), 3rd
BCS Bowl Record: 2-4 (6, 3rd)
National Titles (Game Record): 1 (1-2)
Final AP Rankings: U-U-1-6-5-3-3-22-11-8 (Top 5: 4/Top 10: 6)
It took Bob Stoops just two seasons to turn the Sooners into national champions from the mess he inherited from John Blake. And his nine-year stint in Norman has been a spectacular success, with 11 or more wins in seven seasons and made six BCS bowl appearances, including three in the national title game.
But fairly or unfairly, OU’s BCS Era is mostly colored by losses in bowl games. After winning the 2000 national title, the Sooners were turned away in successive championship games in 2003 and 2004 – in the latter massacred by USC. Oklahoma’s most memorable game in the BCS Era just might be its thrilling overtime loss to Boise State in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl.
BCS Bowl Record: 2-4 (6, 3rd)
National Titles (Game Record): 1 (1-2)
Final AP Rankings: U-U-1-6-5-3-3-22-11-8 (Top 5: 4/Top 10: 6)
It took Bob Stoops just two seasons to turn the Sooners into national champions from the mess he inherited from John Blake. And his nine-year stint in Norman has been a spectacular success, with 11 or more wins in seven seasons and made six BCS bowl appearances, including three in the national title game.
But fairly or unfairly, OU’s BCS Era is mostly colored by losses in bowl games. After winning the 2000 national title, the Sooners were turned away in successive championship games in 2003 and 2004 – in the latter massacred by USC. Oklahoma’s most memorable game in the BCS Era just might be its thrilling overtime loss to Boise State in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl.
Thursday, September 18, 2008
BCS Era No. 4 -- LSU
Overall Record: 89-37 (.706), 16th
BCS Bowl Record: 4-0 (4, 5th)
National Titles (Game Record): 2 (2-0* - split title with USC in 2003)
Final AP Rankings: U-U-22-7-U-2-16-6-3-1 (Top 5: 3/ Top 10: 5)
Nick Saban built it, but Les Miles took it to new heights. Saban laid the foundation, leading the Bayou Tigers to a share of the national championship in 2003. But during his tenure, LSU was an up-and-coming program. Miles has made it into a juggernaut in the last three seasons.
By beating Ohio State in the BCS title game last season, LSU became the first program to win two BCS championships. But taken its body of work in totality, the Tigers will need a couple more title-contending seasons to move up this ladder. Maybe it’s a coincidence, maybe not – LSU won both of its BCS titles in the friendly confines of the Louisiana Superdome.
BCS Bowl Record: 4-0 (4, 5th)
National Titles (Game Record): 2 (2-0* - split title with USC in 2003)
Final AP Rankings: U-U-22-7-U-2-16-6-3-1 (Top 5: 3/ Top 10: 5)
Nick Saban built it, but Les Miles took it to new heights. Saban laid the foundation, leading the Bayou Tigers to a share of the national championship in 2003. But during his tenure, LSU was an up-and-coming program. Miles has made it into a juggernaut in the last three seasons.
By beating Ohio State in the BCS title game last season, LSU became the first program to win two BCS championships. But taken its body of work in totality, the Tigers will need a couple more title-contending seasons to move up this ladder. Maybe it’s a coincidence, maybe not – LSU won both of its BCS titles in the friendly confines of the Louisiana Superdome.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
BCS Era No. 5 -- Miami (Fla.)
Overall Record: 94-30 (.758), 7th
BCS Bowl Record: 3-1 (4, 6th)
National Titles (Game Record): 1 (1-1)
Final AP Rankings: 20-15-2-1-2-5-11-17-U-U (Top 5: 4/Top 10: 4)
The Hurricanes ruled the BCS roost in the beginning of the 2000s, losing just four games in a four-year span. Miami played in consecutive BCS title games and won 34 straight games before losing to Ohio State in double overtime in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl. The 2001 edition is considered among the best college football teams of all time.
But just like Florida State, the ‘Canes have fallen on hard times of late and coach Larry Coker was ousted after the 2006 season. The Randy Shannon era also didn’t get off to an auspicious beginning as Miami finished with a losing record (5-7) and missed a bowl game for the first time since 1997. The ‘Canes, who were also supposed to dominate the ACC, haven’t won a single title since joining the conference in 2004.
BCS Bowl Record: 3-1 (4, 6th)
National Titles (Game Record): 1 (1-1)
Final AP Rankings: 20-15-2-1-2-5-11-17-U-U (Top 5: 4/Top 10: 4)
The Hurricanes ruled the BCS roost in the beginning of the 2000s, losing just four games in a four-year span. Miami played in consecutive BCS title games and won 34 straight games before losing to Ohio State in double overtime in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl. The 2001 edition is considered among the best college football teams of all time.
But just like Florida State, the ‘Canes have fallen on hard times of late and coach Larry Coker was ousted after the 2006 season. The Randy Shannon era also didn’t get off to an auspicious beginning as Miami finished with a losing record (5-7) and missed a bowl game for the first time since 1997. The ‘Canes, who were also supposed to dominate the ACC, haven’t won a single title since joining the conference in 2004.
Friday, September 5, 2008
BCS Era No. 6 -- Texas
Overall Record: 103-25 (.805), 2nd
BCS Bowl Record: 2-0 (2, 12th)
National Titles (Game Record): 1 (1-0)
Final AP Rankings: 15-21-12-5-6-12-5-1-13-10 (Top 5: 4/Top 10: 5)
Without a doubt, Texas has been the most consistent program in the BCS Era – which coincided with Mack Brown’s tenure in Austin. The Longhorns have won at least nine games in each of the 10 seasons and finished no lower than No. 13 in the final AP poll since 2000.
But aside from its lone championship season of 2005, when Vince Young authored the miracle finish against two-time defending champion USC, Texas has had a frustrating time in the BCS Era. The inability to beat Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout, including a five-game losing streak from 2000-2004, relegated the Horns to just two BCS bowl appearances.
BCS Bowl Record: 2-0 (2, 12th)
National Titles (Game Record): 1 (1-0)
Final AP Rankings: 15-21-12-5-6-12-5-1-13-10 (Top 5: 4/Top 10: 5)
Without a doubt, Texas has been the most consistent program in the BCS Era – which coincided with Mack Brown’s tenure in Austin. The Longhorns have won at least nine games in each of the 10 seasons and finished no lower than No. 13 in the final AP poll since 2000.
But aside from its lone championship season of 2005, when Vince Young authored the miracle finish against two-time defending champion USC, Texas has had a frustrating time in the BCS Era. The inability to beat Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout, including a five-game losing streak from 2000-2004, relegated the Horns to just two BCS bowl appearances.
Thursday, September 4, 2008
BCS Era No. 7 -- Florida
Overall Record: 93-34 (.732), 10th
BCS Bowl Record: 3-1 (4, 7th)
National Titles (Game Record): 1 (1-0)
Final AP Rankings: 5-12-10-3-U-24-U-12-1-13 (Top 5: 3/Top 10: 4)
The Gators won the 2006 BCS championship in coach Urban Meyer’s second season in Gainesville. The program’s BCS stature is only marred by the three-year tenure of Ron Zook that sandwiched between Meyer and Steve Spurrier. The Ol’ Ball Coach guided the Gators to three BCS bowl berths in his final four seasons at the Swamp.
Florida will be facing stiffer competition in the SEC with the rise of Georgia in its own division and the emergence of LSU as a perennial powerhouse. Meyer must prove that 2006 was no fluke as the Gators managed to win the SEC just twice (2000 and 2006) in the BCS Era.
BCS Bowl Record: 3-1 (4, 7th)
National Titles (Game Record): 1 (1-0)
Final AP Rankings: 5-12-10-3-U-24-U-12-1-13 (Top 5: 3/Top 10: 4)
The Gators won the 2006 BCS championship in coach Urban Meyer’s second season in Gainesville. The program’s BCS stature is only marred by the three-year tenure of Ron Zook that sandwiched between Meyer and Steve Spurrier. The Ol’ Ball Coach guided the Gators to three BCS bowl berths in his final four seasons at the Swamp.
Florida will be facing stiffer competition in the SEC with the rise of Georgia in its own division and the emergence of LSU as a perennial powerhouse. Meyer must prove that 2006 was no fluke as the Gators managed to win the SEC just twice (2000 and 2006) in the BCS Era.
Saturday, August 30, 2008
BCS Era No. 8 -- Florida State
The Guru's Note: Continuing our Ten Years of BCS series, the Guru reviews and examines the top programs during the BCS Era (1998-2007) and ranks them from Nos. 1-10. The rankings will be published in reverse order in the coming days as we approach the kickoff of the 2008 season.
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Overall Record: 92-36 (.719), 12th
BCS Bowl Record: 1-5 (6, 4th)
National Titles (Game Record): 1 (1-2)
Final AP Rankings: 3-1-5-15-21-11-15-23-U-U (Top 5: 3/Top 10: 3)
The Seminoles began the BCS Era as the standard bearer of college football, finishing in the top five in the final AP poll a record 14 consecutive years (1987-2000). They played in the first three BCS title games, winning the 1999 championship by defeating the Michael Vick-led Virginia Tech.
But Florida State has been on an inexorable slide since in coach Bobby Bowden’s twilight seasons. The Seminoles were out of the top 25 altogether the last two seasons and have lost their last four BCS bowl appearances. Florida State begins 2008 unranked – for the first time since 1982.
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
BCS Era No. 9 -- Georgia
The Guru's Note: Continuing our Ten Years of BCS series, the Guru reviews and examines the top programs during the BCS Era (1998-2007) and ranks them from Nos. 1-10. The rankings will be published in reverse order in the coming days as we approach the kickoff of the 2008 season.
===
Overall Record: 97-30, .764, 6th
BCS Bowl Record: 2-1 (3, 9th)
National Titles (Game Record): 0 (0-0)
Final AP Rankings: 14-16-20-22-3-7-7-10-23-2 (Top 5: 2/Top 10: 5)
The Bulldogs certainly have high expectations after finishing last year No. 2 and beginning this year No. 1 in the AP poll. But in the BCS Era, Georgia often fell short because of its inability to beat Florida. Until last year’s breakthrough, the Dawgs had lost eight of nine in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party against their archrivals.
Since Mark Richt took over as the Georgia coach in 2001, the Bulldogs have become a regular contender for BCS bowl berths. They have finished in the top 10 in the final AP poll five times in the past six seasons, a feat only eclipsed by USC.
Sunday, August 24, 2008
BCS Era No. 10 -- Michigan
The Guru's Note: Continuing our Ten Years of BCS series, the Guru reviews and examines the top programs during the BCS Era (1998-2007) and ranks them from Nos. 1-10. The rankings will be published in reverse order in the coming days as we approach the kickoff of the 2008 season.
---
Overall Record: 93-32 (.744), 9th
BCS Bowl Record: 1-3 (4, 8th)
National Titles (Game Record): 0 (0-0)
Final AP Rankings: 12-5-11-20-9-6-14-U-8-18 (Top 5: 1 / Top 10: 4)
Michigan embarks on the 2008 season with a lot of uncertainty, but it had been one of the most consistent teams in the BCS Era (1998-2007) and played in four BCS bowls – winning the 2000 Orange Bowl while quarterbacked by Tom Brady.
The Wolverines will begin a new chapter in their storied history following the retirement of coach Lloyd Carr, who won a split national title in 1997, just before the dawn of BCS. Michigan’s inability to defeat Ohio State in recent years (losing six of the last seven) kept the Maize and Blue from contending for the BCS title.
Friday, August 1, 2008
Ten Years of BCS: 2004
The Guru's Note: Beginning in June, the Guru will publish a review of each of the 10 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. In this series -- Ten Years of BCS -- the Guru will examine the results from these seasons -- who got lucky and who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear weekly leading up to the 2008 season.
=========================
If 2003 was a wakeup call for the BCS, then 2004 represented a broken snooze button.
The alarm just kept blaring.
Five teams remained undefeated all season. And at the end, while USC and Oklahoma faced off for the BCS title, SEC champion Auburn was left with a consolation prize in the Sugar Bowl. Mountain West champion Utah did get a BCS berth, but its opponent Pittsburgh was so overmatched in the Fiesta Bowl that the Utes didn't get to prove their mettle, either. WAC champion Boise State was left out of the BCS picture all together.
There was no split championship, like in 2003, mostly because the Trojans savagely mauled the Sooners, 55-19. Even Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville, who was on hand to troll for AP votes, conceded during ABC's halftime show that USC would be difficult to beat "when you give (offensive coordinator) Norm Chow a month to get ready for somebody."
But that was hardly a happy ending for the BCS, which had completely overhauled its formula from the previous season.
In fact, the BCS formula may be seen in two phases. BCS I ran from its inception in 1998 through the disastrous 2003 season. While there were alterations, they were mostly minor. BCS II emerged with the 2004 season, with human polls taking over the preponderance of the equation.
Ironically, BCS I and BCS II would've yielded the same USC-Oklahoma result in 2004, leaving Auburn and Utah out. With the Utes (and the Broncos), it's fairly easy to explain. The non-BCS conferences are not respected by the voters even if the computers treat them more fairly. The Mountain West in 2004 also was not a particularly solid conference, with only three teams finishing with winning records (both New Mexico and Wyoming were 7-5).
The last non-BCS school to win a national championship was Brigham Young in 1984. And it will remain the last one, well after this country elects a woman president, and possibly all through eternity.
As for Auburn, two factors proved fatal to its BCS title prospects. One, the Tigers were lightly regarded before the season started, checking in at No. 17 in the preseason AP poll. Auburn eventually worked its way up to No. 3, but could never crack the stranglehold USC and Oklahoma held on Nos. 1 and 2 -- going wire-to-wire. Two, just as LSU in 2003 and most of SEC teams in general, the Tigers played an extremely uncompetitive non-conference schedule.
Of their 11 regular-season games in 2004, seven were at home. Their three non-conference games were against Louisiana-Monroe, Louisiana Tech and I-AA Citadel -- all at home. Compared that with USC (at Virginia Tech and BYU, home to Colorado State and Notre Dame) and Oklahoma (home to Bowling Green, Houston and Oregon), it's easy to see that both the human voters and computers punished Auburn for the soft schedule.
The Tigers eked out a 16-13 win over Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl to finish second in the final AP and coaches polls. But that didn't stop Tuberville and Auburn from declaring themselves champions. The Tigers made themselves big diamond rings to commemorate their "championship" season, and they're now available on eBay.
Final BCS Standings: 1. USC, 2. Oklahoma, 3. Auburn, 4. Texas.
Alternative Methods
Using 1998-2003 (BCS I) formula: 1. USC, 2. Oklahoma, 3. Auburn, 4. Texas.
Using human polls only: 1. USC, 2. Oklahoma, 3. Auburn, 4. California.
Plus One: USC vs. Utah; Oklahoma vs. Auburn.
Controversy
The Mack Brown Campaign: In 2003, Texas finished No. 5 in the BCS standings but was relegated to the Holiday Bowl. The Longhorns seemed headed to San Diego again in 2004, until coach Mack Brown did something about it.
With undefeated Utah poised to become the first BCS Buster, there was only one BCS bowl slot available to a non-conference champion. And since the No. 4 team was guaranteed an at-large spot, the race was on between Texas and California.
The Golden Bears had a tenuous hold on the fourth spot since October. Their only loss all season was a 23-17 heartbreaker to USC at the L.A. Coliseum when they couldn't get the ball in the end zone from the 9-yard line in the game's waning moments. Texas's only loss was a 12-0 defeat at the Cotton Bowl against the Sooners.
After Cal routed archrival Stanford in the Big Game, its season should've been over. But once again, a hurricane proved to be a Pac-10 team's undoing, as it was in 1998. The Bears' Sept. 23 game at Southern Mississippi was postponed because of Hurricane Ivan, and it was re-scheduled for Dec. 4.
Texas was done with its schedule on Nov. 26, after beating rival Texas A&M. Immediately thereafter, Brown started an endless media campaign on behalf of his No. 5-ranked Longhorns. His tactics also made the Cal-Southern Miss matchup something of a referendum on the Bears, whose game would be nationally televised on ESPN.
Perhaps affected by the pressure and expectations, the Bears did not play an impressive game, but nonetheless they won, 26-16. While Cal coach Jeff Tedford thought his team had done what it needed to secure the program's first Rose Bowl berth since 1959, others weren't so sure.
The Bears' worst fears were realized when they fell from No. 4 to No. 5 in the final BCS standings as Texas snatched the coveted Rose Bowl berth. Voter defection carried the day. In the AP poll, Cal's advantage over Texas shrunk from 85 points to 62. But the real story was the coaches poll.
In the penultimate standings, Cal held a 48-point lead over Texas. In the one that counted, it was ahead by a mere 5 points. In other words, no fewer than 20 coaches switched their placements of Texas and Cal. But more telling was that four coaches voted Cal No. 7 and two No. 8 -- after a Bears victory, and behind 2-loss Georgia.
Predictably, the Pac-10 was furious and demanded that the coaches disclose their final ballot.The AFCA refused and disputed the suggestions that impropriety took place behind the cloak of secrecy. The Longhorns went on to win the Rose Bowl behind the electrifying performance of sophomore QB Vince Young. The dispirited Bears were routed by Texas Tech in the Holiday Bowl.
The Texas-California controversy had a long-lasting effect on the BCS standings. First, the AP poll refused to be included in the BCS standings after the 2004 season. Because all AP poll balloting is available to the public, some AP voters were harassed and threatened by fans who were unhappy with the decisions. The BCS had to scramble and invent the "Harris Interactive Poll" to replace the venerable and prestigious AP poll in its standings. Second, to promote more transparency, the coaches reluctantly agreed to reveal their final regular-season balloting.
Through it all, Tedford took the high road. He didn't try to score an extra touchdown against Southern Miss in the game's final minutes to curry favor with the voters and never indulged in a war of words with Brown or anyone else. And the final irony was that the AP flip-flops alone would've put Texas ahead of Cal in the final standings. But the coaches ended up catching most of the heat because of their shenanigans.
BCS Formula Review: The BCS blew up its previous formula (BCS I) and started from scratch. The new formula (BCS II) comprised of only two parts -- the human polls and computers. Strength of Schedule and Quality Win components were purged.
The human polls now account for two-thirds of the formula, with the AP poll and coaches poll each weighing one third. Instead of using the team's actual ranking, the formula now calls for the percentage of total votes received. This alteration actually made the deciding difference in the Texas-Cal controversy as the old formula would've disregarded the vote-margin difference.
The computer ratings shrank further from seven to six, with the New York Times bowing out. The new formula required strength of schedule to be part of each computer's calculations. The computer average counts for one-third of the formula, with the highest and lowest rating for each team discarded.
After replacing the AP with Harris poll following the 2004 season, this formula has stayed exactly intact, at least through the 2008 season.
Analysis: The twin controversies engulfed the 2004 season, mitigated only somewhat by USC's impressive Orange Bowl win and "repeat" championship. But unlike the previous season, the BCS did not blow up the system and start from scratch again.
The nonchalant, near-shrug of a reaction actually, in the long view, saved the BCS. It's as if the BCS simply stated: "We're here to stay so deal with it." It may be because the BCS couldn't risk undergoing another wholesale change without completely destroying its already-tattered credibility. Or because there just wasn't anything else to do short of going to a playoff system.
Either way, this steadfastness would serve BCS well, for better or for worse. Despite all the outcry in the subsequent seasons, the public and media began to grudgingly accept the BCS for what it is.
Friday, July 25, 2008
Ten Years of BCS: 2003
The Guru's Note: Beginning in June, the Guru will publish a review of each of the 10 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. In this series -- Ten Years of BCS -- the Guru will examine the results from these seasons -- who got lucky and who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear weekly leading up to the 2008 season.
The epic Miami-Ohio State showdown in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl, even with the attendant controversy at the end of the game, gave the BCS a huge sigh of relief. "The system works!" went the battle cry.
No, it doesn't. And it most certainly didn't in the 2003 season, when the BCS was met with catastrophe -- the very scenario that the system was created to avoid: A split national championship.
In its first five years of existence, while there were disagreements and debates about certain teams' merits to be included in the championship game, there had never been a case where the BCS champion was deemed unworthy, or not been crowned by the Associated Press, which maintained its independence.
But in 2003, it all happened. Going into the final weekend of the season, three teams were vying for two spots in the Sugar Bowl. USC had one loss -- at Cal in triple overtime, 34-31. As did LSU -- to Florida at home, 19-7. No. 1 Oklahoma was undefeated going into the Big XII title game against Kansas State.
Even before the games were played on that final Saturday, word was that the Sooners would stay No. 1, even if they lost the game. (Keep in mind that the Guru wasn't in business back then, or you'd known that as certainty.) The computers favored Oklahoma by a wide margin, and, since all other teams besides USC and LSU had at least two losses, Oklahoma would not drop to lower than No. 3 in the human polls. Put it together, the Big XII title game was a mere exhibition with very little riding on it.
And the Sooners played like it, getting pasted by Kansas State, 35-7. After LSU beat Georgia in the SEC title game and USC romped past Oregon State, as expected, USC ascended to No. 1 in both polls while LSU moved up to No. 2.
In the penultimate BCS standings, USC had a comfortable lead on LSU (6.90 vs. 8.43). The Trojans were ranked higher in the human polls and computer rankings and also had better strength-of-schedule ratings. The expectation was that USC would play Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl with LSU left to howl.
But then Boise State beat Hawaii.
Say what?
Exactly right, that's what happened. Combined with Syracuse's 38-12 pasting of Notre Dame, the Tigers got enough of a boost to nudge out USC by .16 of a percentage point, getting Oklahoma as their date while the Trojans were left with a Rose Bowl berth against No. 4 Michigan.
A confluence of events made this happen, and pretty much all of it the BCS's fault:
1. Eliminating margin of victory from all computer equations: This completely unnecessary step was taken gradually, out of an irrational fear of teams running up the scores to impress computers. By 2003, all BCS computers had agreed to abide by this restriction, in some cases reluctantly. Because of this, Oklahoma's 4-touchdown debacle was weighed the same as a road loss in triple overtime. Since the BCS wasn't able to legislate how the voters think (yet, anyway), the polls appropriately knocked the Sooners down to No. 3. But the computers overwhelmingly went for Oklahoma.
2. Keeping strength of schedule (SOS) as a component: Strangely, with all the tweaking in the first five years, the BCS never touched this. First of all, it's hardly an objective tool, almost as arbitrary as the human polls. The formula being used was a poor imitation of the RPI (used by the NCAA basketball selection committee) and called for an absurd division of 25 to produce the SOS number. Besides, all computer rankings have formulas for strength of schedule of their own, so at the very least it's redundant. Teams playing a soft schedule would've been punished enough by the computers anyway.
3. If you can't beat them ... tank them: Notre Dame was routed by the Trojans, 45-14, in South Bend, so the Irish returned the favor ... by getting blown out at Syracuse on the final Saturday of the season. Notre Dame's loss dealt USC's SOS rating a fatal blow. That, combined with Boise State's 45-28 win over Hawaii, another team beaten by USC earlier in the year, catapulted LSU over USC. The Tigers, by beating Georgia for the second time in the season, saw their SOS rating jump from 54th to 29th while USC's held at 37th. LSU beat USC by .30 of a percentage point in the SOS ratings, the difference it needed to seal its hold on the No. 2 spot.
For the record, USC played at Auburn and Notre Dame and played home games against Hawaii and BYU while LSU faced Louisiana-Monroe, Louisiana Tech and I-AA Western Illinois at home and Arizona on the road. Just how LSU's schedule could be considered to be among the top 30 in the country showed the flaw in the SOS ratings.
At the end, USC impressively defeated Michigan, 28-14, in the Rose Bowl and held onto the No. 1 AP ranking and a share of the national championship. In a rather sloppy and uninspired game, LSU edged Oklahoma, 21-14, for the BCS title -- though not without one last bit of drama.
Despite a mandate to vote for the BCS title game winner No. 1 in the final poll, three coaches (Mike Bellotti, Ron Turner and Lou Holtz) broke the contractual agreement and cast their No. 1 ballot for USC. The Tigers got their half of the title, but were quickly forgotten as USC romped to the BCS title games the following two seasons. The general acknowledgement that the Trojans won "back-to-back" national championships in 2003 and 2004 left many LSU fans embittered to this day.
Final BCS Standings: 1. Oklahoma, 2. LSU, 3. USC, 4. Michigan.
Alternative Methods:
* Using present-day formula: 1. LSU, 2. USC, 3. Oklahoma 4. Michigan.
* Using 1998-2003 formula eliminating SOS: 1. (Tie) Oklahoma, USC, 3. LSU, 4. Michigan.
* Using human polls only: 1. USC, 2. LSU, 3. Oklahoma, 4. Michigan.
* Plus-One: Oklahoma vs. Michigan; USC vs. LSU.
Controversies:
* The Snub of Miami of Ohio -- After losing the season opener to Iowa, 21-3, junior quarterback Ben Roethlisberger led the Red Hawks to 12 consecutive victories, beating Bowling Green for a second time in the Mid-American title game. Bowling Green, incidentally, lost only three times - twice to Miami and once at Ohio State, 24-17.
But despite a No. 11 ranking in the BCS standings, Miami never had a chance for an at-large berth. Even though the Red Hawks were "eligible," they received no consideration from the four BCS bowls and ended up finishing a 13-1 season by routing Louisville in the GMAC Bowl.
Until before the 2006 season, a non-BCS school had to be ranked in the top six for a guaranteed spot in a BCS bowl game. Under congressional pressure and with the advent of a fifth -- the BCS national championship game -- bowl, the standard for "mid-major" schools were relaxed to guarantee a spot for any team in the top 12. Too late for Miami and Big Ben, though.
* The Texas Shaft: Despite being ranked No. 5 in both polls, the Longhorns were shut out of a BCS bowl berth thanks to Kansas State's upset victory over Oklahoma. With the Big XII's two slots already spoken for, Texas had to settle for the Holiday Bowl where it was beaten by Washington State. But a year later, the 'Horns managed to avoid a return trip to San Diego by being engulfed in yet another BCS controversy.
Ironically, after being the BCS victim the first two years of its existence, Bill Snyder's Wildcats finally made its BCS bowl debut by earning the Big XII's automatic bid. K-State lost to Ohio State, 35-28, in a wild Fiesta Bowl.
*The Extra Game: On Jan. 9, 2004, Ted Waitt, CEO of Gateway Computers offered a $31 million package for a national championship game between USC and LSU. Despite vocal support from both teams, the NCAA did not consider the offer.
BCS Formula Review: With no audible criticism of its formula -- thanks to having two, and only two, undefeated teams in 2002 -- the BCS for the first time in four years maintained the same formula with only a slight adjustment to decrease the value of "quality win." This little-known adjustment actually thew some extra fuel on the controversy because LSU would've gotten an extra .40 points with its victory over Georgia, giving it a much more robust final lead of .56 over USC.
Analysis: Just how close was the LSU-USC spread? Had one of the four computers that ranked LSU No. 2 and USC No. 3 switched places for those teams, the Trojans would've gotten the coveted No. 2 BCS slot by .01 of a percentage point. Or, if the Tigers had not made the quantum leap from 54th to 29th in the SOS rating in the space of one week -- let's say they finished 34th instead, then USC would've been ahead by .04 of a percentage point. Yes, had any of the teams that USC played won one more game or any of LSU's opponents lost one more game, then it would've been a different outcome.
But still not a just outcome.
LSU was not undeserving of a spot in the BCS title game. That's not the issue at all. The "correct" result should've been a USC-LSU title game in the Sugar Bowl. The team that didn't belong there was Oklahoma, which failed to win its own conference after getting blown out in the Big XII title game -- in fact, a game that was not as close as the four-touchdown spread suggested.
An easy remedy could've been found, as early as 2001, after Nebraska somehow secured safe passage to the BCS title game without even winning its division, let along the conference. The old bowl alignment was always arranged to match conference champions in the most prestigious bowls, and therefore a pre-requisite of winning one's conference would not be unreasonable for teams vying to play in the BCS title game.
But the BCS refused to insert this one amendment -- even to this day. After the catastrophe of 2003, when the No. 1 team in both polls was denied a place in its title game that resulted in a split championship, the BCS was forced back to the drawing board, and smashed it up. A brand new formula was concocted to appease an increasingly angry and skeptical public.
The formula overhaul, however, would not save the BCS from the raging controversy of 2004.
========================
The epic Miami-Ohio State showdown in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl, even with the attendant controversy at the end of the game, gave the BCS a huge sigh of relief. "The system works!" went the battle cry.
No, it doesn't. And it most certainly didn't in the 2003 season, when the BCS was met with catastrophe -- the very scenario that the system was created to avoid: A split national championship.
In its first five years of existence, while there were disagreements and debates about certain teams' merits to be included in the championship game, there had never been a case where the BCS champion was deemed unworthy, or not been crowned by the Associated Press, which maintained its independence.
But in 2003, it all happened. Going into the final weekend of the season, three teams were vying for two spots in the Sugar Bowl. USC had one loss -- at Cal in triple overtime, 34-31. As did LSU -- to Florida at home, 19-7. No. 1 Oklahoma was undefeated going into the Big XII title game against Kansas State.
Even before the games were played on that final Saturday, word was that the Sooners would stay No. 1, even if they lost the game. (Keep in mind that the Guru wasn't in business back then, or you'd known that as certainty.) The computers favored Oklahoma by a wide margin, and, since all other teams besides USC and LSU had at least two losses, Oklahoma would not drop to lower than No. 3 in the human polls. Put it together, the Big XII title game was a mere exhibition with very little riding on it.
And the Sooners played like it, getting pasted by Kansas State, 35-7. After LSU beat Georgia in the SEC title game and USC romped past Oregon State, as expected, USC ascended to No. 1 in both polls while LSU moved up to No. 2.
In the penultimate BCS standings, USC had a comfortable lead on LSU (6.90 vs. 8.43). The Trojans were ranked higher in the human polls and computer rankings and also had better strength-of-schedule ratings. The expectation was that USC would play Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl with LSU left to howl.
But then Boise State beat Hawaii.
Say what?
Exactly right, that's what happened. Combined with Syracuse's 38-12 pasting of Notre Dame, the Tigers got enough of a boost to nudge out USC by .16 of a percentage point, getting Oklahoma as their date while the Trojans were left with a Rose Bowl berth against No. 4 Michigan.
A confluence of events made this happen, and pretty much all of it the BCS's fault:
1. Eliminating margin of victory from all computer equations: This completely unnecessary step was taken gradually, out of an irrational fear of teams running up the scores to impress computers. By 2003, all BCS computers had agreed to abide by this restriction, in some cases reluctantly. Because of this, Oklahoma's 4-touchdown debacle was weighed the same as a road loss in triple overtime. Since the BCS wasn't able to legislate how the voters think (yet, anyway), the polls appropriately knocked the Sooners down to No. 3. But the computers overwhelmingly went for Oklahoma.
2. Keeping strength of schedule (SOS) as a component: Strangely, with all the tweaking in the first five years, the BCS never touched this. First of all, it's hardly an objective tool, almost as arbitrary as the human polls. The formula being used was a poor imitation of the RPI (used by the NCAA basketball selection committee) and called for an absurd division of 25 to produce the SOS number. Besides, all computer rankings have formulas for strength of schedule of their own, so at the very least it's redundant. Teams playing a soft schedule would've been punished enough by the computers anyway.
3. If you can't beat them ... tank them: Notre Dame was routed by the Trojans, 45-14, in South Bend, so the Irish returned the favor ... by getting blown out at Syracuse on the final Saturday of the season. Notre Dame's loss dealt USC's SOS rating a fatal blow. That, combined with Boise State's 45-28 win over Hawaii, another team beaten by USC earlier in the year, catapulted LSU over USC. The Tigers, by beating Georgia for the second time in the season, saw their SOS rating jump from 54th to 29th while USC's held at 37th. LSU beat USC by .30 of a percentage point in the SOS ratings, the difference it needed to seal its hold on the No. 2 spot.
For the record, USC played at Auburn and Notre Dame and played home games against Hawaii and BYU while LSU faced Louisiana-Monroe, Louisiana Tech and I-AA Western Illinois at home and Arizona on the road. Just how LSU's schedule could be considered to be among the top 30 in the country showed the flaw in the SOS ratings.
At the end, USC impressively defeated Michigan, 28-14, in the Rose Bowl and held onto the No. 1 AP ranking and a share of the national championship. In a rather sloppy and uninspired game, LSU edged Oklahoma, 21-14, for the BCS title -- though not without one last bit of drama.
Despite a mandate to vote for the BCS title game winner No. 1 in the final poll, three coaches (Mike Bellotti, Ron Turner and Lou Holtz) broke the contractual agreement and cast their No. 1 ballot for USC. The Tigers got their half of the title, but were quickly forgotten as USC romped to the BCS title games the following two seasons. The general acknowledgement that the Trojans won "back-to-back" national championships in 2003 and 2004 left many LSU fans embittered to this day.
Final BCS Standings: 1. Oklahoma, 2. LSU, 3. USC, 4. Michigan.
Alternative Methods:
* Using present-day formula: 1. LSU, 2. USC, 3. Oklahoma 4. Michigan.
* Using 1998-2003 formula eliminating SOS: 1. (Tie) Oklahoma, USC, 3. LSU, 4. Michigan.
* Using human polls only: 1. USC, 2. LSU, 3. Oklahoma, 4. Michigan.
* Plus-One: Oklahoma vs. Michigan; USC vs. LSU.
Controversies:
* The Snub of Miami of Ohio -- After losing the season opener to Iowa, 21-3, junior quarterback Ben Roethlisberger led the Red Hawks to 12 consecutive victories, beating Bowling Green for a second time in the Mid-American title game. Bowling Green, incidentally, lost only three times - twice to Miami and once at Ohio State, 24-17.
But despite a No. 11 ranking in the BCS standings, Miami never had a chance for an at-large berth. Even though the Red Hawks were "eligible," they received no consideration from the four BCS bowls and ended up finishing a 13-1 season by routing Louisville in the GMAC Bowl.
Until before the 2006 season, a non-BCS school had to be ranked in the top six for a guaranteed spot in a BCS bowl game. Under congressional pressure and with the advent of a fifth -- the BCS national championship game -- bowl, the standard for "mid-major" schools were relaxed to guarantee a spot for any team in the top 12. Too late for Miami and Big Ben, though.
* The Texas Shaft: Despite being ranked No. 5 in both polls, the Longhorns were shut out of a BCS bowl berth thanks to Kansas State's upset victory over Oklahoma. With the Big XII's two slots already spoken for, Texas had to settle for the Holiday Bowl where it was beaten by Washington State. But a year later, the 'Horns managed to avoid a return trip to San Diego by being engulfed in yet another BCS controversy.
Ironically, after being the BCS victim the first two years of its existence, Bill Snyder's Wildcats finally made its BCS bowl debut by earning the Big XII's automatic bid. K-State lost to Ohio State, 35-28, in a wild Fiesta Bowl.
*The Extra Game: On Jan. 9, 2004, Ted Waitt, CEO of Gateway Computers offered a $31 million package for a national championship game between USC and LSU. Despite vocal support from both teams, the NCAA did not consider the offer.
BCS Formula Review: With no audible criticism of its formula -- thanks to having two, and only two, undefeated teams in 2002 -- the BCS for the first time in four years maintained the same formula with only a slight adjustment to decrease the value of "quality win." This little-known adjustment actually thew some extra fuel on the controversy because LSU would've gotten an extra .40 points with its victory over Georgia, giving it a much more robust final lead of .56 over USC.
Analysis: Just how close was the LSU-USC spread? Had one of the four computers that ranked LSU No. 2 and USC No. 3 switched places for those teams, the Trojans would've gotten the coveted No. 2 BCS slot by .01 of a percentage point. Or, if the Tigers had not made the quantum leap from 54th to 29th in the SOS rating in the space of one week -- let's say they finished 34th instead, then USC would've been ahead by .04 of a percentage point. Yes, had any of the teams that USC played won one more game or any of LSU's opponents lost one more game, then it would've been a different outcome.
But still not a just outcome.
LSU was not undeserving of a spot in the BCS title game. That's not the issue at all. The "correct" result should've been a USC-LSU title game in the Sugar Bowl. The team that didn't belong there was Oklahoma, which failed to win its own conference after getting blown out in the Big XII title game -- in fact, a game that was not as close as the four-touchdown spread suggested.
An easy remedy could've been found, as early as 2001, after Nebraska somehow secured safe passage to the BCS title game without even winning its division, let along the conference. The old bowl alignment was always arranged to match conference champions in the most prestigious bowls, and therefore a pre-requisite of winning one's conference would not be unreasonable for teams vying to play in the BCS title game.
But the BCS refused to insert this one amendment -- even to this day. After the catastrophe of 2003, when the No. 1 team in both polls was denied a place in its title game that resulted in a split championship, the BCS was forced back to the drawing board, and smashed it up. A brand new formula was concocted to appease an increasingly angry and skeptical public.
The formula overhaul, however, would not save the BCS from the raging controversy of 2004.
Friday, July 11, 2008
Ten Years of BCS: 2002
The Guru's Note: Beginning in June, the Guru will publish a review of each of the 10 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. In this series -- Ten Years of BCS -- the Guru will examine the results from these seasons -- who got lucky and who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear weekly leading up to the 2008 season.
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After two years of turmoil, BCS got a big break in 2002 as two undefeated teams -- the only ones -- met in a memorable title game that wasn't decided until after two overtimes. This time, the only controversy came only during the game.
But just like in 1999, while the BCS could pat itself on the back all it wants, the reality is that a caveman could've picked the Miami-Ohio State matchup -- and he wouldn't even need the BCS standings to muddle his thoughts.
After Oklahoma was upset in the first week of November, it became clear that the title game would feature defending champion and No. 1-ranked Miami and second-ranked Ohio State. The Buckeyes had to survive a tight battle with arch rival Michigan, 14-9, while the 'Canes romped through the final weeks, bidding to become the first team in the BCS era to repeat as champions.
Ohio State, riding on the back of the criminally talented freshman Maurice Clarett, would spoil Miami's quest, but it needed two big breaks to do it. First, Hurricanes running back Willis McGahee tore his ACL in the third quarter, slowing down the Miami offensive powerhouse. Then, just as the 'Canes seemingly clinched victory on the game's final play, a pass-interference (wait, or was it defensive holding?) flag came out five seconds later that gave the Buckeyes new life.
Was that a good call? You decide.
(Warning: The neutrality of the commentary is in question)
But the most significant development of this season went mostly unnoticed. After losing two of its first five games, USC blew through the rest of the Pac-10 and routed Iowa in the Orange Bowl, led by Heisman-winning quarterback Carson Palmer. The Trojans would re-enter college football's top echelon and become the most BCS-relevant juggernaut for years to come.
Final BCS standings: 1. Miami, 2. Ohio State, 3. Georgia, 4. USC.
Alternative Methods:
* Using present day formula: 1. Miami, 2. Ohio State.
* Using 1998-2000 formula: 1. Miami, 2. Ohio State.
* Using human polls only: 1. Miami, 2. Ohio State.
* Plus-One: Miami vs. USC; Ohio State vs. Georgia.
Controversy:
* The Rose Bowl in Miami: The real Rose Bowl lost out on the traditional Big Ten-Pac-10 matchup and was none too pleased about it. Adding insult to more insult, the Orange Bowl invoked a little-known BCS backroom rule to secure a USC-Iowa matchup that announced the arrival of the Trojan Empire.
Here's how it happened:
After the Fiesta Bowl took the top two teams for the national title game, the Orange Bowl snagged No. 5 Iowa, the Big Ten runner-up. The Rose Bowl was next. With Pac-10 co-champ Washington State (which beat USC head-to-head) already anchored, and Iowa unavailable, the Rose took Big 12 champion Oklahoma.
The Sugar Bowl was next, ready to invite No. 4 USC to play No. 3 Georgia. But the Orange Bowl took advantage of an exception clause that allowed a higher-paying bowl to jump another once every four years and swiped the Trojans away. The Sugar Bowl was stuck with SEC champion Georgia and ACC winner No. 14 Florida State.
BCS Formula Review: Computer rankings by Herman Matthews and Dave Rothman were dropped and the New York Times added back in, making it a total of seven. The lowest ranking was discarded and the remaining six averaged.
All rankings now purged the margin-of-victory component, as Jeff Sagarin introduced a new ELO-CHESS rating that removed margin of victory, reluctantly -- in his words: "In ELO-CHESS, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence, which makes it very 'politically correct'."
Analysis: The BCS celebrated its most successful season yet, and decided to take the rest of the year off to congratulate itself. The Miami-Ohio State game was a boon to the BCS and seemingly validated its existence -- without the participation of the Big Ten, Pac-10 and the Rose Bowl, this matchup wouldn't have happened in the pre-BCS era. But the next two years would bring nothing but trouble for the system, especially 2003, when the mother of all controversies would force the BCS to blow itself up.
But just like in 1999, while the BCS could pat itself on the back all it wants, the reality is that a caveman could've picked the Miami-Ohio State matchup -- and he wouldn't even need the BCS standings to muddle his thoughts.
After Oklahoma was upset in the first week of November, it became clear that the title game would feature defending champion and No. 1-ranked Miami and second-ranked Ohio State. The Buckeyes had to survive a tight battle with arch rival Michigan, 14-9, while the 'Canes romped through the final weeks, bidding to become the first team in the BCS era to repeat as champions.
Ohio State, riding on the back of the criminally talented freshman Maurice Clarett, would spoil Miami's quest, but it needed two big breaks to do it. First, Hurricanes running back Willis McGahee tore his ACL in the third quarter, slowing down the Miami offensive powerhouse. Then, just as the 'Canes seemingly clinched victory on the game's final play, a pass-interference (wait, or was it defensive holding?) flag came out five seconds later that gave the Buckeyes new life.
Was that a good call? You decide.
(Warning: The neutrality of the commentary is in question)
But the most significant development of this season went mostly unnoticed. After losing two of its first five games, USC blew through the rest of the Pac-10 and routed Iowa in the Orange Bowl, led by Heisman-winning quarterback Carson Palmer. The Trojans would re-enter college football's top echelon and become the most BCS-relevant juggernaut for years to come.
Final BCS standings: 1. Miami, 2. Ohio State, 3. Georgia, 4. USC.
Alternative Methods:
* Using present day formula: 1. Miami, 2. Ohio State.
* Using 1998-2000 formula: 1. Miami, 2. Ohio State.
* Using human polls only: 1. Miami, 2. Ohio State.
* Plus-One: Miami vs. USC; Ohio State vs. Georgia.
Controversy:
* The Rose Bowl in Miami: The real Rose Bowl lost out on the traditional Big Ten-Pac-10 matchup and was none too pleased about it. Adding insult to more insult, the Orange Bowl invoked a little-known BCS backroom rule to secure a USC-Iowa matchup that announced the arrival of the Trojan Empire.
Here's how it happened:
After the Fiesta Bowl took the top two teams for the national title game, the Orange Bowl snagged No. 5 Iowa, the Big Ten runner-up. The Rose Bowl was next. With Pac-10 co-champ Washington State (which beat USC head-to-head) already anchored, and Iowa unavailable, the Rose took Big 12 champion Oklahoma.
The Sugar Bowl was next, ready to invite No. 4 USC to play No. 3 Georgia. But the Orange Bowl took advantage of an exception clause that allowed a higher-paying bowl to jump another once every four years and swiped the Trojans away. The Sugar Bowl was stuck with SEC champion Georgia and ACC winner No. 14 Florida State.
BCS Formula Review: Computer rankings by Herman Matthews and Dave Rothman were dropped and the New York Times added back in, making it a total of seven. The lowest ranking was discarded and the remaining six averaged.
All rankings now purged the margin-of-victory component, as Jeff Sagarin introduced a new ELO-CHESS rating that removed margin of victory, reluctantly -- in his words: "In ELO-CHESS, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence, which makes it very 'politically correct'."
Analysis: The BCS celebrated its most successful season yet, and decided to take the rest of the year off to congratulate itself. The Miami-Ohio State game was a boon to the BCS and seemingly validated its existence -- without the participation of the Big Ten, Pac-10 and the Rose Bowl, this matchup wouldn't have happened in the pre-BCS era. But the next two years would bring nothing but trouble for the system, especially 2003, when the mother of all controversies would force the BCS to blow itself up.
Monday, July 7, 2008
Ten Years of BCS: 2001
The Guru's Note: Beginning in June, the Guru will publish a review of each of the 10 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. In this series -- Ten Years of BCS -- the Guru will examine the results from these seasons -- who got lucky and who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear weekly leading up to the 2008 season.
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If the BCS was shaken by the 2000 controversy, then it was rocked by an earthquake in 2001.
Heading into the final weeks of the regular season, it appeared that a Miami-Nebraska showdown in the Rose Bowl would be inevitable. After Nebraska's 20-10 win over previously unbeaten Oklahoma, Miami and Nebraska were ranked 1-2 for the next four consecutive weeks, with non-BCS Brigham Young the only other unbeaten team.
Then a series of upsets changed everything.
Heading into their final regular-season game, the Huskers still needed a victory in Boulder to clinch the Big 12 North against two-loss Colorado. But the Buffaloes didn't comply, and thrashed Nebraska, 62-36, in a game that wasn't even that close. Nebraska tumbled to No. 6 in the polls and its national title aspirations seemingly squashed.
After Nebraska's loss, Florida claimed the all-important No. 2 spot. The Gators just needed to beat Tennessee to secure a berth in the SEC championship game. Annually played in the third week of September, the Florida-Tennessee game in 2001 was postponed because of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. The Vols surprised Florida with a 34-32 victory, in what turned out to be Steve Spurrier's final regular-season game as Gators coach.
The victory catapulted Tennessee from No. 6 to No. 2 in the BCS standings after No. 4 Colorado upset No. 3 Texas in the Big XII title game. Now all the Vols had to do was beat LSU in the SEC title game to secure their second BCS title game appearance in four years.
In the meantime, left on the sideline seething was Oregon. The Ducks, with its only defeat to two-loss Stanford, were No. 3 in both polls. Yet, they were ranked only No. 5 in the BCS standings, behind two-loss Colorado, who had been beaten by Fresno State and also Texas in the regular season. The Buffs, after winning the rematch against the Longhorns, had their issue, too: Somehow, they were ranked No. 4 in the BCS, behind the Nebraska team that had been idle since being annihilated in Boulder.
The BCS would've dodged a bullet if Tennessee could just take care of business against three-loss LSU, which had been beaten in Knoxville earlier in the season. But the Tigers didn't oblige, pulling out a 31-20 victory in the SEC title game, completing the frenzied final three weeks of the season with one more upset.
So who was going to play undefeated Miami? Oregon, now No. 2 in both polls, seemed to have the strongest argument. Colorado, with an impressive late-season run but two losses, wanted to have a say, too. The team that really shouldn't be in the discussion was Nebraska, which had snuck back up to No. 4 after the spate of late-season upsets.
But it was Nebraska that claimed the No. 2 spot in the final BCS standings, edging out Colorado by five-hundredth (.05) of a percentage point. Oregon, with a low computer average and hampered by its strength-of-schedule rating, was a distant fourth and never had a shot.
The Buffaloes howled for weeks after narrowly losing out. But the truth is that they were even that close to Nebraska only because of the new "quality win" component, added after the 2000 season as make-good to Miami's snub. Had the 2000 formula been applied, Colorado would've been fourth, behind Nebraska by nearly two full points and also Oregon as well.
At the end, the Ducks were really the aggrieved party, and they proved it by destroying Colorado, 38-16, in the Fiesta Bowl. Miami finished its undefeated season with a ho-hum 34-14 victory over Nebraska, universally disparaged as being undeserving. While the Hurricanes celebrated their national championship, the BCS was sent back to the drawing board once again.
Final BCS Standings: 1. Miami, 2. Nebraska, 3. Colorado, 4. Oregon.
Alternative Methods:
Using present day formula: 1. Miami, 2. Oregon, 3. Colorado, 4. Nebraska. (Oregon would've been a comfortable No. 2, and there would've been little controversy)
Using 1998-2000 formula: 1. Miami, 2. Nebraska, 3. Oregon, 4. Colorado. (Nebraska would've been well ahead of Oregon)
Using human polls only: 1. Miami, 2. Oregon, 3. Colorado, 4. Nebraska.
Plus-One: Miami vs. Nebraska; Oregon vs. Colorado.
Controversy:
Other than Nebraska getting into the national championship game in the Rose Bowl, not really. (But that's like saying a car hit my wife and then ran over my dog, but other than that, it's been a great day.) The only other one-loss teams from major conferences, Illinois (Big Ten) and Maryland (ACC), were both throttled in BCS bowl games. No. 5 Florida was the only at-large selection, and as it turned out, sent out coach Spurrier to the NFL with a 56-23 rout of Maryland at the Orange Bowl.
BCS Formula Review: Wes Colley (of the Colley Matrix) and Peter Wolfe were added to the computer ratings, replacing the New York Times and Richard Dunkel. The move ostensibly was to lessen the impact of margin of victory in computer rankings. Of the eight ratings for each team, the highest and lowest were thrown out and the remainder averaged.
Also, a "quality win" component was added to the team's final total, in response to Miami's being snubbed in 2000. This scheme called for teams to receive bonus points by beating other teams in the final BCS top 15. As a result, Colorado's late-season wins over Nebraska and Texas gave it a boost of 2.3 points, nearly knocking Nebraska out of the No. 2 spot.
Analysis: The 2001 mess probably should've been a wake-up call for the BCS to completely revamp its formula. Yet, the powers-that-be continued to scrutinize the computers and margin of victory as the problem areas, overlooking the real issues that made the cumbersome system dysfunctional. The next season brought a big relief -- through no credit to the BCS system -- but the calm would prove short-lived.
Sunday, June 22, 2008
Ten Years of BCS: 2000
The Guru's Note: Beginning in June, the Guru will publish a review of each of the 10 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. In this series -- Ten Years of BCS -- the Guru will examine the results from these seasons -- who got lucky and who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear weekly leading up to the 2008 season.
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After two years of relative calm, controversy exploded on the BCS in Year 3. For the first time, a team's presence in the BCS title game was called into question. And the criticism went unabated even after an undefeated champion was crowned.
But if anything, this was a self-inflicted wound.
Bowing more to an ignorant media than any real pressure from public opinion, the BCS drastically changed its formula to retroactively make amends for an outcome it was powerless to change. Instead of defending its method and holding its ground, the BCS capitulated. This knee-jerk reaction would bring far more serious consequences in the years to come and compromise its claim to legitimacy in the system's formative years.
Oklahoma finished the 2000 regular season as the only undefeated team and its No.1 ranking was undisputed. But Florida State, despite ranking No. 3 in both the AP and coaches polls, leapfrogged No. 2 Miami in the final BCS standings to earn a date with the Sooners in the Orange Bowl.
The media went berserk, more so than even Miami coach Butch Davis. The credibility of BCS computers was called into question because it was the computers' preference for the Seminoles that carried the day. The main argument was this: Since both Miami and Florida State each had one loss, and the Hurricanes beat the Seminoles on the field, how could Florida State be ranked ahead of Miami?
The BCS panicked big time. Changes were promised and then carried out in the offseason. The computer lineup was reshuffled to de-emphasize margin of victory. And a dubious "quality win" criteria was added to the formula -- as if the existing arrangement wasn't convoluted enough.
But the BCS should've responded ith: "What's the problem?" and vigorously defended the system.
Florida State was a worthy No. 2 team. If you lined up FSU and Miami side-by-side, plenty could've been made in the Seminoles' favor:
1. Strength of Schedule: Florida State and Miami ranked Nos. 2 and 3, respectively, in the strength of schedule compartment of the BCS standings. But upon further examination, that was laughable. (the SoS, parroted from the RPI that the NCAA uses for its basketball selections, would prove to be the most destructive part of the formula -- but more on that later in the series.) Florida State played in a tougher conference (ACC)- than Miami (Big East). Its non-conference games consisted of Louisville, Brigham Young, Florida and Miami. The 'Canes played I-AA McNeese State, Louisiana Tech, Washington and FSU, plus Big East cupcakes such as Rutgers and Temple.
2. Losses: Florida State's lone loss was to Miami, 27-24, at the Orange Bowl on Oct. 7. The Seminoles rallied from a 17-0 halftime deficit to take a 24-20 lead late in the game, only to lose on a Ken Dorsey-to-Jeremy Shockey pass with 46 seconds left. The 'Canes' only defeat was a 34-29 loss at Washington on Sept. 9.
3. The Washington Factor: If head-to-head results were so paramount, then maybe Washington should've been ranked ahead of Miami. After all, the Huskies beat Miami and also only lost once -- a 23-16 defeat at two-loss Oregon.
4. Margin of Victory: If Washington was discounted because it won lots of close games -- eight of its 11 games were decided by seven or fewer points -- then the fact that Florida State won its games, against a considerably tougher schedule, by a wider margin than Miami (38.9 vs. 30.4) should not have been overlooked. And the computers didn't.
5. Historic Precedent: Even before the birth of BCS, there had been several instances that a team was ranked ahead of another despite losing head-to-head and possessing the same record. In 1993, Florida State finished ahead of Notre Dame in both polls even though the Irish won, 31-24, at South Bend. In 1978, USC finished second to Alabama (11-1) in the AP poll even though the Trojans (12-1) beat the Tide, 24-14, in Birmingham, Ala.
See, the body of evidence is pretty strong in the Seminoles' favor. Their presence in the BCS championship game was easily defensible. That they laid an near-egg in an ugly 13-2 loss to Oklahoma is immaterial. And that Miami defeated a Florida team in the Sugar Bowl -- a team that the 'Noles walloped -- is irrelevant.
And one more thing: Even if today's BCS formula, which gives two-thirds of its weight to the human polls, were applied to the 2000 season, you'd still end up with the same result. Florida State would've finished second, ahead of Miami (1.1093 vs. 1.1025).
Final BCS Standings: 1. Oklahoma, 2. Florida State, 3. Miami (Fla.), 4. Washington.
Alternative Methods:
* Using present day BCS formula: 1. Oklahoma, 2. Florida State.
* Using human polls only: 1. Oklahoma, 2. Miami (Fla.)
* Plus-One: Oklahoma vs. Washington; Florida State vs. Miami (Fla.).
Controversy:
* Notre Dame windfall: The Fiesta Bowl passed on four teams ahead of Notre Dame in the BCS standings to take the two-loss No. 10 Irish. Virginia Tech, ranked No. 5 with its only loss to Miami, fell just outside of the Kansas State-mandate and was ignored. Three other two-loss teams were also swept aside -- Oregon (out because two other Pac-10 teams were already taken), Kansas State (they're pretty used to this by now) and Nebraska. The Huskers also had a beef because they had defeated Notre Dame in South Bend, 27-24, earlier in the season. This occurred at a time when the Irish received a windfall of $13 million for a BCS bowl appearance -- as opposed to today's more balanced payouts. Notre Dame was promptly exposed as a fraud as it was annihilated by Dennis Erickson's Oregon State Beavers, 41-9.
BCS formula review: No change to the formula was made between the 1999 and 2000 seasons. And that's about to change, as the formula would be tweaked or overhauled in four of the next five years.
Analysis: The changes to the BCS formula prior to the 2001 season would prove to be simply reactionary and solved nothing. And while an argument may be stated on Miami's behalf, the results of the bowl games really made a case for Washington. The Huskies went 7-1 in easily the toughest conference in 2000. They beat Purdue in the Rose Bowl; and bowl wins by Oregon State and Oregon gave the Pac-10 three teams in the top seven in the final AP poll. The BCS was rocked by its first real crisis and another one would erupt the following season.
Friday, June 13, 2008
Ten Years of BCS: 1999
The Guru's Note: Beginning in June, the Guru will publish a review of each of the 10 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. In this series -- Ten Years of BCS -- the Guru will examine the results from these seasons -- who got lucky and who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear weekly leading up to the 2008 season.
Give yourself a big pat on the back, BCS. You deserve it. You got it right.
You matched up the only two undefeated major conference teams in the national championship game. Brilliant! Couldn't have done it without ya!
What's was left unsaid was: "Whew!"
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Give yourself a big pat on the back, BCS. You deserve it. You got it right.
You matched up the only two undefeated major conference teams in the national championship game. Brilliant! Couldn't have done it without ya!
What's was left unsaid was: "Whew!"
Despite the obvious -- only Florida State and Virginia Tech emerged from the regular season unbeaten -- there were doubts about whether they'd face each other in the Sugar Bowl for the national title. At the end, Virginia Tech had a barely comfortable margin to hold off one-loss No. 3 Nebraska to play in the title game.
In the 10-year history of the BCS, 1999 had to be one of the most uneventful. The Seminoles went wire-to-wire as the No. 1 team, their place in New Orleans never in question. Upset losses by Penn State and Tennessee in the first two weeks of November paved the way for Virginia Tech to seize the No. 2 ranking.
The Hokies, led by redshirt freshman quarterback Michael Vick, had to sweat out the final four weeks of the regular season mostly because of a soft schedule. With strength of schedule a separate component accounting for nearly one-third of the BCS standings, Virginia Tech had a hard time gaining breathing room from the Cornhuskers, finishing just 1.30 points ahead in the final standings.
Just as in 1998, an undefeated non-BCS conference team finished the regular season unbeaten. And just like Tulane, a 12-0 Marshall team was shut out of a BCS bowl despite finishing No. 12 in the final standings. And one more thing like the Green Wave: The Thundering Herd, quarterbacked by Chad Pennington, completed a perfect season with a victory over BYU, in the Motor City Bowl.
In the Sugar Bowl, Vick rallied the Hokies to take a 29-28 lead at the end of the third quarter. But the Seminoles scored the game's final 18 points in the fourth quarter, giving Bobby Bowden his second, and final, national championship.
Final BCS Standings: 1. Florida State, 2. Virginia Tech, 3. Nebraska, 4. Alabama.
Alternative Methods:
* Using present day BCS formula: 1. Florida State, 2. Virginia Tech.
* Using human polls only: 1. Florida State, 2. Virginia Tech.
* Plus-One: Florida State vs. Alabama; Virginia Tech vs. Nebraska.
Controversies:
* Kansas State snub II: Well, it wasn't quite as egregious as the one in 1998, but the Wildcats once again earned the dubious honor of being the highest-ranked team not invited to a BCS bowl. K-State, ranked No. 6 with its only loss to Nebraska, was passed up by the Fiesta Bowl (No. 5 Tennessee) and Orange Bowl (No. 8 Michigan). But unlike the previous year, the Wildcats managed to hold it together and win the Holiday Bowl, 24-20, over Washington.
* Marshall snub: With today's arrangement, the Herd would've earned an automatic BCS berth. But with strength-of-schedule a key component in the formula at the time, Marshall was doomed by its 98th-place schedule. The MAC champs, however, would become the last undefeated team not to play in a BCS bowl.
BCS Formula Review: Five more computer rankings were added to the formula -- Billingsley, Dunkel, Massey, Matthews and Rothman -- bringing the total to eight. The lowest ranking among the eight was dropped and the remaining seven averaged to produce the computer ranking. Also, a "Kansas State clause" was added, guaranteeing any team finishing in the top four a BCS bowl spot, but the Wildcats weren't in position to benefit from it.
Analysis: Two years in, the BCS appeared to be producing the desired results. The title games matched deserving teams and the other BCS bowls featured interesting matchups. But this was only the calm before the storm, as raging controversies were about to envelope the BCS, forcing major changes almost annually in the coming years.
Friday, May 30, 2008
Ten Years of BCS: 1998
The Guru's Note: Beginning in June, the Guru will publish a review of each of the 10 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. In this series -- Ten Years of BCS -- the Guru will examine the results from these seasons -- who got lucky and who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear weekly leading up to the 2008 season.
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On the precipice of a disaster in its infancy, the BCS was magically rescued by the hurricanes -- one named Georges, the other named Edgerrin James.
Three teams headed into the final Saturday of the season with undefeated records: Tennessee, Kansas State and UCLA. The Vols and Wildcats were scheduled to play in their respective conference title games; while the Bruins, riding a nation-best 20-game winning streak, were to play Miami at the Orange Bowl in a makeup game.
Originally, the game was to be played on Sept. 26. But because of the imminent threat of Hurricane Georges, it was temporarily postponed. UCLA had the option of canceling the game outright and standing on its performance in 10 games, but it took the risky move of rescheduling the game for the final day of the season.
The Miami team that beat UCLA, 49-45, that day was a vast improvement over the one the Bruins would've faced on Sept. 26. Behind James' 299 rushing yards (on 39 carries), the 'Canes shredded a shaky UCLA defense and benefited from an erroneous fumble call. Besides ending UCLA's quest to appear in the first BCS title game, Miami's upset victory sent the Bruins on a long descent into national irrelevance.
After UCLA's loss, it was up to Tennessee and Kansas State to hold up their end of the bargain. The Volunteers did but the Wildcats didn't -- losing to double-digit underdog Texas A&M in double overtime, 36-33. As a parting gift, K-State was handed an Alamo Bowl berth after being shut out of the BCS bowls.
While the Tennessee-Florida State title game -- played in the Fiesta Bowl -- was generally acknowledged as a fair outcome, there were a few minor controversies in the year of BCS's birth. Besides the snubbing of K-State, an 11-0 Tulane team was also shut out of the BCS. But thanks to the hurricanes, a catastrophe was averted.
Final BCS Standings: 1. Tennessee, 2. Florida State, 3. Kansas State, 4. Ohio State.
Alternative methods:
Using present day BCS formula: 1. Tennessee, 2. Florida State.
Using human polls only: 1. Tennessee (1-AP, 1-Coaches), 2. Florida State (2-AP, 2-Coaches).
Plus-One: Tennessee vs. Ohio State; Florida State vs. Kansas State.
Controversies:
Kansas State snub: Despite finishing third in the final BCS standings, the Wildcats found themselves in the non-BCS Alamo Bowl. The Sugar Bowl opted for Big Ten co-champion Ohio State, who was the top-ranked team for most of the season until a 28-24 upset loss to Michigan State. The Orange Bowl took Steve Spurrier's Florida Gators, who finished eighth in the BCS standings. A dispirited and disinterested K-State team lost to Purdue, 37-34.
Tulane snub: An 11-0 record and Conference USA title weren't enough to get the Green Wave to a BCS bowl game, let alone a spot in the title game. Tulane, ranked No. 10, today would've received an automatic berth by being in the top 12. Nevertheless, playing without a head coach after Tommy Bowden took the Clemson job, the Green Wave romped to a 41-27 Liberty Bowl victory over BYU under some guy named Rich Rodriguez.
BCS Formula Review: The initial BCS standings, the brainchild of then-SEC commissioner Roy Kramer, was an unwieldy clunker divided in three -- human polls, computer rankings and strength of schedule. And each loss is tacked on as additional penalty. Only three computers were used -- Anderson & Hester, Jeff Sagarin and New York Times. Margin of victory was accounted for by all three computers and a 50% adjusted maximum deviation factor was applied.
Analysis: UCLA's loss, which occurred earlier in the day on Dec. 5, gave the BCS poobahs a huge sigh of relief. Tennessee's 23-16 victory over Florida State in the Fiesta Bowl, though underwhelming, was controversy-free. The BCS seemingly passed its first test ... only if they knew.
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