BCS Review Series: 2011, LSU Robbed in All-SEC Absurdity

Part 14 of a series: Over the next few weeks, I will be reviewing each of the 16 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. Here is a look back at who got lucky, who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear throughout December and January.

Part 1: 1998, A New Beginning for College Football

Part 2: 1999, FSU Ends Michael Vick's Quest for Perfection

Part 3: 2000, FSU-Miami Sows Seeds of Controversy

Part 4: 2001, Nebraska Fiasco Rocks College Football

Part 5: 2002, Controversy on Field Mars Perfect Ending

Part 6: 2003, Nightmare of Split National Championship

Part 7: 2004, Unbeaten Auburn Left Out in the Cold

Part 8: 2005, Perfect Season Ends With Epic at Rose Bowl

Part 9: 2006, Dawn of SEC's Reign in College Football

Part 10: 2007, LSU Goes "Undefeated in Regulation"

Part 11: 2008, SEC Wins in Polls, Then on the Field

Part 12: 2009, Alabama, Texas More Equal Than Others

Part 13: 2010, SEC and Pac-10 Finally Get Together

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The 2011 season was where the BCS got it all wrong.

And the victim that suffered the most amount of injustice was actually an SEC team—LSU.

The Tigers of 2011 put up possibly the most impressive resume of any team in the BCS era. They defeated five teams with at least 10 wins. They beat three teams that went on to play in BCS bowl games. And they became the first (and only) team to score a perfect 1.000 in the final BCS standings since the format was adopted in 2004.

Yet, thanks to the combination of a giant loophole that the BCS never closed and the media-driven groupthink mentality amongst the voters, LSU was forced to play a conference team that it had already defeated during the regular season—on the road, no less.

Alabama might have won the 2011 BCS title, but its place in the championship game was so richly undeserved. Let us count the ways:

1. Championship loophole: In both 2001 (Nebraska) and 2003 (Oklahoma), a team that failed to win its conference somehow ended up in the BCS title game. After each instance, an argument was made that a conference title should be mandatory for teams playing for the national championship.

That reasoning had both logical and historical roots. Every national championship team since the AP began publishing its final poll after bowl games in 1968 was a conference champion, all the way until the advent of the BCS era in 1998. Conference title was a requirement for teams to qualify for the biggest bowl games.

Yet, in 2011, Alabama didn't win its own division, never mind the conference, since it didn't even qualify for the SEC title game.

2. BCS precedent: Without the conference title requirement, it was up to the voters to decide the top two teams in the final BCS standings—an established fact after the formula was tweaked in 2004. Their only guideline was that the finalists be the nebulous "best two teams."

In 2006, they correctly averted rematching Ohio State and Michigan in the title game, even though the Big Ten rivals were Nos. 1 and 2 going into the final weeks of the season. The voters bought into the SEC argument (loudly advocated on CBS by Gary Danielson) that it was not possible to determine the best two teams in the nation if they were both from the same conference.

But in 2011, most of the voters forgot all about that after being brain-washed by the SEC dominance over the past five years.

3. Strength of schedule: Alabama's main competition was Oklahoma State, which lost out on the absurdity of the argument that one bad loss trumps all good wins.

The Cowboys' only loss of the season was to 6-6 Iowa State on the road in overtime whereas the Tide's only loss was to LSU at home in overtime. Yet, OSU had a higher computer ranking, having defeated four teams with at least nine wins, whereas 'Bama beat just two. OSU ended up losing the argument because it played in the underrated (by the human voters) Big 12.

Alabama also played one of the weakest schedules of any teams appearing in the BCS title games. Because it got to skip the SEC title game entirely, it played only nine and won only eight games against BCS conference opponents—in both cases the fewest of any team that won the title in the BCS era.

4. Post-hoc fallacy: Because Alabama did beat LSU, 21-0, in a snooze of a championship game, does that mean its selection was vindicated? Most definitely not.

The Crimson Tide were well-prepared to play in the championship game after getting an unearned reprieve. But that they played well was irrelevant because they shouldn't have been in there in the first place. SEC apologists like to excuse its teams' poor performances in big bowl games due to lack of interest (see, Alabama, in 2009 and 2014 Sugar Bowl), but if they win it just affirmed the conference's superiority.

In 2011, they wanted that argument to go both ways.

Final 2011 BCS Standings: 1. LSU, 2. Alabama, 3. Oklahoma State.

Likely four-team playoff: LSU vs. Alabama; Oklahoma State vs. Oregon.

The rematch would've been accepted here with the Tide no better than a No. 4 seed since they were the only non-champion in the field. Oregon would've gotten the nod over Stanford despite having one more loss because it beat the Cardinal and won the Pac-12.

Controversies

Boise State Snub III: Whereas conference championship was not required for teams to play in the BCS title game, that requirement was iron-clad for non-AQ teams wishing to participate in a BCS bowl game.

For the second year in a row, Boise State lost its only game in a heartbreaker when its kicker missed a field goal at the end of regulation. This time, in their first year as a member of the Mountain West Conference, the 36-35 loss to TCU cost them the conference title.

As a result, despite finishing No. 7 in the final BCS standings, well ahead of three BCS conference champions (Big Ten, ACC and Big East), Boise State was snubbed again by the BCS bowls. The Sugar Bowl opted to match up No. 11 Virginia Tech with No. 13 Michigan, with neither a conference winner. The Broncos were relegated to play in the Las Vegas Bowl for a second straight year.

K-State Snub V: Bill Snyder returned to Manhattan and rebuilt the Wildcats program a second time, only to find that the BCS was just as inhospitable as when he left it the first time.

Kansas State was snubbed for a BCS bowl berth for a fifth time after finishing in the top 10 in the final standings. Just as No. 7 Boise State was bypassed by the Sugar Bowl, the eighth-ranked Wildcats ended up in the Cotton Bowl. K-State never received an at-large berth in the entire BCS era, as its two BCS bowl appearances (2003 and 2012) both came after winning the Big 12 title.

2011 BCS Bowl Matchups

Bowl	Score	Attendance	TV Rating
BCS Champ*	#2 Alabama 21, #1 LSU 0	78,237	16.2
Rose	#5 Oregon 45, #10 Wisconsin 38	91,245	11.8
Fiesta	#3 Oklahoma St. 41, #4 Stanford 38 (OT)	69,927	9.7
Sugar	#13 Michigan 23, #11 Va. Tech 20 (OT)	64,512	7.1
Orange	#23 West Virginia 70, #15 Clemson 33	67,563	5.3

Final analysis: Like it or not, Alabama's 2011 BCS title must come with an asterisk.

Unlike Nebraska in 2001 and Oklahoma in 2003, the Tide did win the BCS title game and took home the crystal ball. Their second championship in three years left no doubt that Nick Saban was building a budding dynasty, but doubts sprung anew about the viability of the BCS.

It has become clear to many of the BCS critics that the entire apparatus, built by its SEC godfather Roy Kramer, had become inexorably tilted in favor of his old conference both in perception and in practice. Its influence now extended to the AP poll, which had a chance to exercise its own independence, but declined. In the final poll, 55 of the 60 voters ranked Alabama No. 1 while four went with Oklahoma State.

The SEC's takeover of college football was now complete.

Boise State: Humanitarian-Bound

For Boise State, it had been a very bad week. So bad, that the Broncos now seem destined to be home for the holidays.

Despite a comfortable victory over Louisiana Tech last Tuesday, the Broncos dropped once again in the two polls that account for two-thirds of the BCS standings. And because of that, they're now No. 4 in the standings, being leapfrogged by their non-AQ competitor TCU.

What that means is: Never mind the BCS title game. A BCS bowl berth - at the Rose Bowl, no less - is slipping out of their clutch. If the season ended today, the Broncos would be consigned to play on their home blue turf, in the Humanitarian Bowl.

Oops, excuse me, the uDrove Humanitarian Bowl.

This isn't some kind of scare-mongering sensationalism, but the sad truth in the strange machinations of the BCS. OK, the Broncos probably will end up in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl (my friend Doug Kelly's wet dream), but now we're splitting hairs.

Here's how everything would go down:

* Oregon would play Auburn in the BCS title game by virtue of being Nos. 1 and 2 in the BCS standings.

* TCU would play the Big Ten champ in the Rose Bowl, which is contractually obligated to take the non-AQ qualifier should it loses the Big Ten or Pac-10 representative to the title game.

* The Sugar Bowl, having the next two picks, would take the best SEC team available, in this case Alabama. And this is where it gets interesting. It could take Boise State, but after the Tide's humiliation at the hands of Utah two years ago, and having had two non-AQ teams there the last three years, the Sugar Bowl will opt for the Big Ten runner-up instead (either Wisconsin or Ohio State, or Iowa, after the Rose Bowl plucks the champ). It gets a game with two traditional powers, with the expectation that the SEC team would rout another Big Ten opponent.

* The Orange Bowl, up next, has the ACC champ. With its historical ties to the old Big Eight, it would grab either Nebraska or Oklahoma, whichever doesn't win the Big 12 title.

*Finally, the Fiesta Bowl would be stuck with the Big 12 champ and the Big East champ, be it Pitt, Syracuse or whichever team comes out a conference that currently does not have a single team in the BCS top 25.

That's it. Virginia Tech, a team that Boise State beat in a virtual road game to open the season, most likely will be in a BCS bowl, representing the ACC. The Big East is guaranteed a spot as well, even though it's being outnumbered, 4-0, in the current BCS top 25 by WAC and Mountain West teams.

And Boise State, potentially with a 12-0 record and a No. 4 ranking in the BCS standings, will be shut out of a BCS bowl and get a MAC team (not even the champion) in its home stadium. Or play the day before the BCS title game, on the field of a baseball stadium, even if it belongs to the newly minted World Series champ ... (ugh, those words shouldn't go together).

Oh, the indignity.

The pivot here really is the Sugar Bowl. If it opts for the aforementioned SEC-Big Ten matchup, as is probable, then Boise would be locked out. The Orange Bowl, which has had nothing but crummy games of late, won't even think about picking Boise State. And the Fiesta Bowl won't have a choice but to take a potentially 4-loss Big East winner.

Falling to 4th behind TCU is what gets Boise State in this predicament, and the likelihood, going forward, of the Broncos jumping back over TCU is remote, and here's why:

* The Broncos do not have a single game left that will give them a boost in the polls, not even Nevada, which is currently No. 23 in the BCS standings. TCU, on the other hand, will gain additional poll points if it defeats unbeaten Utah this week.

* With the poll gap shrinking further, Boise's computer deficit will be the decisive factor in keeping the Horned Frogs ahead in the standings.

So all Boise State has left, besides winning its remaining games, is hope for change, because the status quo won't do (hmmm, I need to get the election out of my head). Basically, the Broncos need these scenarios to develop:

* A TCU loss, to Utah this weekend or to a resurgent San Diego State next week. The Frogs' only remaining game after that is a laugher at New Mexico, which they might win by 70 (Oregon beat the Lobos, 72-0).

* An Alabama loss to LSU this weekend or to Mississippi State next week. And then an Alabama win over Auburn in the Iron Bowl. The loss knocks Alabama out of the BCS title race, the win over Auburn eliminates the SEC entirely from the title-game picture.

* An Oregon loss to either Arizona or Oregon State in its final two games of the season.

Should two of the scenarios occur, then the Broncos are back in contention for the BCS title game. Should only one of them take place, they'll have the Rose Bowl (not a bad consolation prize, all things considered). If Oregon, TCU and either Alabama or Auburn win out, then the Broncos would be effectively boxed out.

The next two weeks will prove crucial to the Broncos - particularly this Saturday. Maybe they should put the Alabama and TCU games on a split screen when they host Hawaii this weekend, as all three games will take place simultaneously. Whatever happens on the blue turf will have far less impact on the Broncos than the ones they're not playing in.

First Bowl Cast, 2008

Yes, the Guru knows the economy is bad. People are not traveling. Heck, I run a bed and breakfast and we haven't sold out the Georgia-Florida weekend - which was usually a given in my six years in Jacksonville (Good rooms are still available! Pardon the shameless advertising!)

But chances are, you still might harbor dreams of spending New Years somewhere nice, like in California, Arizona, or South Florida. Maybe the stock market will rebound. Maybe oil will hit 20 bucks a barrel. Maybe the Chinese will buy out all of our bad debts and write them off.

We can only dream.

But if you really do want to hit one of those BCS bowls and would like to plan early, the Guru is here to help. With one hand on the crystal ball and the other working a dart board, I now present you with this season's first fearless Bowl Cast:

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: January 8, Dolphin Stadium, Miami

Matchup: Texas vs. Penn State (Odds: Texas 70%, Penn State 80%)

Outlook: The No. 1-ranked Longhorns will have their toughest remaining game this week at Texas Tech. A victory should send Texas smooth sailing into Key Biscayne. Penn State has an even easier slate, but it still needs Alabama to lose one game.

Other potential suitors: Alabama (20%), Florida (10%), Georgia (10%), Texas Tech (5%), USC (3%), Oklahoma (2%).

ROSE BOWL: January 1, Rose Bowl, Pasadena, Calif.

Matchup: USC vs. Ohio State (Odds: USC 90%, Ohio State 50%)

Outlook: The Tournament of Roses red coats don't want this rematch - it would be the third time these two teams meet in 12 months - but it will have to really think outside of the box to avoid it. If Penn State somehow doesn't make it to the BCS title game, fine. If USC somehow doesn't win the Pac-10 outright, fine. But would the Rose Bowl dare to invite an SEC team to finally matchup with the Trojans in a bowl game? That would be nice, but that would also risk ticking off the Big Ten. Just remember, these guys invited Illinois last year. The track record isn't good.

Other potential suitors: Oregon State (20%),California (15%), Penn State (10%), Michigan State (5%), Minnesota (3%), Oregon (2%), Alabama (2%), Florida (2%), Georgia (1%).

FIESTA BOWL: January 5, University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Ariz.

Matchup: Alabama vs. Utah (Odds: Alabama 20%, Utah 60%)

Outlook: Say what? You ask. Well, this is going on the assumption that Oklahoma would be the obvious second choice from the Big 12 and the Fiesta Bowl doesn't want a third consecutive appearance by the Sooners. The quandary here is that although the Fiesta would get the first pick if it loses Texas to the BCS title game, it pretty much has no way of avoid taking a non-BCS automatic qualifier, be it Utah, TCU, Boise State or even Tulsa.

Other potential suitors: Boise State (50%), Texas Christian (20%), Texas (10%), Ball State (5%), Tulsa (5%), Brigham Young (5%), Oklahoma (5%), Oklahoma State (5%), Texas Tech (5%), Florida (5%), Georgia (3%), Missouri (2%).

SUGAR BOWL: January, 2, Louisiana Superdome, New Orleans

Matchup: Florida vs. Oklahoma (Odds: Florida 40%, Oklahoma 50%)

Outlook: If the Fiesta does pass on Oklahoma, then the Sooners land here to play the SEC champion. If Oklahoma is gone, then the Sugar will be forced to take the Big East champion, leaving the second SEC team for the Orange Bowl. If the SEC champion somehow ends up in the BCS title game, then the Sugar will take the Big 12's second team.

Other potential suitors: Alabama (30%), Georgia (25%), Big East champion (25%), Oklahoma State (15%), Texas Tech (10%), Texas (4%), Missouri (1%).

ORANGE BOWL: January 1, Dolphin Stadium, Miami

Matchup: ACC Champion vs. Big East Champion (Odds: ACC 100%, Big East 80%)

Outlook: The price you pay for hosting the BCS title game is that your bowl game would suffer. And there's just about no way the Orange Bowl can avoid this stinker involving two teams maybe ranked in the 20s. The only hope to avoid this is for the Sugar to take the Big 12's second team, leaving a second team from the SEC available.

Other potential suitors: Alabama (10%), Florida (5%), Georgia (3%), Ohio State (2%).

Ten Years of BCS: 1999

The Guru's Note: Beginning in June, the Guru will publish a review of each of the 10 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. In this series -- Ten Years of BCS -- the Guru will examine the results from these seasons -- who got lucky and who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear weekly leading up to the 2008 season.

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Give yourself a big pat on the back, BCS. You deserve it. You got it right.

You matched up the only two undefeated major conference teams in the national championship game. Brilliant! Couldn't have done it without ya!

What's was left unsaid was: "Whew!"

Despite the obvious -- only Florida State and Virginia Tech emerged from the regular season unbeaten -- there were doubts about whether they'd face each other in the Sugar Bowl for the national title. At the end, Virginia Tech had a barely comfortable margin to hold off one-loss No. 3 Nebraska to play in the title game.

In the 10-year history of the BCS, 1999 had to be one of the most uneventful. The Seminoles went wire-to-wire as the No. 1 team, their place in New Orleans never in question. Upset losses by Penn State and Tennessee in the first two weeks of November paved the way for Virginia Tech to seize the No. 2 ranking.

The Hokies, led by redshirt freshman quarterback Michael Vick, had to sweat out the final four weeks of the regular season mostly because of a soft schedule. With strength of schedule a separate component accounting for nearly one-third of the BCS standings, Virginia Tech had a hard time gaining breathing room from the Cornhuskers, finishing just 1.30 points ahead in the final standings.

Just as in 1998, an undefeated non-BCS conference team finished the regular season unbeaten. And just like Tulane, a 12-0 Marshall team was shut out of a BCS bowl despite finishing No. 12 in the final standings. And one more thing like the Green Wave: The Thundering Herd, quarterbacked by Chad Pennington, completed a perfect season with a victory over BYU, in the Motor City Bowl.

In the Sugar Bowl, Vick rallied the Hokies to take a 29-28 lead at the end of the third quarter. But the Seminoles scored the game's final 18 points in the fourth quarter, giving Bobby Bowden his second, and final, national championship.

Final BCS Standings: 1. Florida State, 2. Virginia Tech, 3. Nebraska, 4. Alabama.

Alternative Methods:

* Using present day BCS formula: 1. Florida State, 2. Virginia Tech.

* Using human polls only: 1. Florida State, 2. Virginia Tech.

* Plus-One: Florida State vs. Alabama; Virginia Tech vs. Nebraska.

Controversies:

* Kansas State snub II: Well, it wasn't quite as egregious as the one in 1998, but the Wildcats once again earned the dubious honor of being the highest-ranked team not invited to a BCS bowl. K-State, ranked No. 6 with its only loss to Nebraska, was passed up by the Fiesta Bowl (No. 5 Tennessee) and Orange Bowl (No. 8 Michigan). But unlike the previous year, the Wildcats managed to hold it together and win the Holiday Bowl, 24-20, over Washington.

* Marshall snub: With today's arrangement, the Herd would've earned an automatic BCS berth. But with strength-of-schedule a key component in the formula at the time, Marshall was doomed by its 98th-place schedule. The MAC champs, however, would become the last undefeated team not to play in a BCS bowl.

BCS Formula Review: Five more computer rankings were added to the formula -- Billingsley, Dunkel, Massey, Matthews and Rothman -- bringing the total to eight. The lowest ranking among the eight was dropped and the remaining seven averaged to produce the computer ranking. Also, a "Kansas State clause" was added, guaranteeing any team finishing in the top four a BCS bowl spot, but the Wildcats weren't in position to benefit from it.

Analysis: Two years in, the BCS appeared to be producing the desired results. The title games matched deserving teams and the other BCS bowls featured interesting matchups. But this was only the calm before the storm, as raging controversies were about to envelope the BCS, forcing major changes almost annually in the coming years.