Showing posts with label Charlie Weis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Charlie Weis. Show all posts

Saturday, January 9, 2010

Who's No. 1? Who Knows?

Let's be clear about this: The last time there was an undisputed national champion was the 2005 season, when Texas defeated USC in the epic 2006 Rose Bowl. Every season since, the legitimacy of the championship could be cast in doubt.

The 2009 season is no different.

While Alabama was the unanimous choice in both the AP and Coaches polls, a reasonable argument could be made for Boise State. TCU might be better than Texas - with or without Colt McCoy. And while the body of work of Alabama was more impressive than Boise's, who's to say that the Broncos couldn't have beaten the Tide in a one-game championship?

So here's how I voted on my final ballot, with comments below:

RankTeamDelta
1 Alabama
2 Boise State 1
3 Texas 1
4 Florida 2
5 TCU 3
6 Cincinnati 1
7 Ohio State 1
8 Iowa 1
9 Penn State 2
10 Brigham Young 2
11 Oregon 4
12 Georgia Tech 2
13 Virginia Tech
14 Utah 2
15 Wisconsin 4
16 Pittsburgh 2
17 Nebraska 7
18 Mississippi
19 LSU 5
20 USC
21 Miami (Florida) 6
22 Navy
23 Oklahoma State 3
24 Texas Tech
25 Central Michigan

Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: West Virginia (#17), Arizona (#21), Oregon State (#22), Stanford (#23).

* I voted Alabama No. 1 because absent a playoff where more than two teams get a chance to determine the championship, one must consider the respective resumes of the only two undefeated teams. The Tide's best wins were over Texas (without McCoy), Florida and Virginia Tech. The Broncos beat TCU, Oregon and ... not much else. Not their fault, but the schedule does matter.

* The idiocy (or sheer malice) of some of the AP and coaches voters must be exposed. Craig James (yeah, that Craig James, he's a Dad!) had Boise State No. 7, behind two-loss teams Ohio State, Penn State and Iowa ... yes, he also had Penn State in front of Iowa, which actually defeated the Lions head-to-head. Worse yet, he had TCU at No. 14. His slots for Boise and TCU were by far the lowest of any voters in the AP poll. A ballot that produced such outliers should be tossed out for its irregularity. As it is, he single-handedly cost Boise the No. 3 ranking, as the Broncos finished four points behind Florida.

* Over in the coaches poll, which has yet to make available how the individual coaches voted on their final ballot, we do know that former Akron coach J.D. Brookhart has mailed it in ... or not mailed, faxed, or emailed in anything. He didn't bother submitting a final ballot after getting canned.

* My ballot follows a very simple logic. The teams are ranked by their records and resume. In cases where teams have identical records, the team that either won head-to-head or had a better resume is ranked ahead. Teams that lost their bowl games, particularly ones abandoned by their head coaches (i.e. Cincinnati), are not unduly punished as they were in the other polls.

* Every BCS conference team with no more than four losses is ranked, except West Virginia and Rutgers, who just missed the cut. Every non-BCS team with no more than two losses is also on the ballot. One exception is made for Navy, and it absolutely earned its place on the ballot. The Midshipmen played six bowl teams on their schedule and demolished Missouri in their own bowl game. Besides, they have our eternal gratitude for driving Charlie Weis out of college football, perhaps forever.

* So who would win in a championship game between Alabama and Boise State? The Tide would be favored, on paper. But Boise State's postseason history must give one pause before dismissing the Broncos entirely. Unfortunately, we'll just never know. The BCS crystal ball has been packed and shipped. It will be on Isle 6 at a Walmart near you, if you live in Tuscaloosa, that is.

Friday, October 16, 2009

Fat Charlie's Last Chance?

Much has been made about Saturday's game being Charlie Weis' best chance to beat USC since the Bush Push Classic in 2005. The Irish, mired in a seven-year futility against the Trojans, might not get a better shot anytime soon if they don't somehow pull it off this year.



The game is at home - they can let the grass grow. The Trojans have a freshman quarterback and a sputtering offense. Jimmy Clausen is a true Heisman candidate and can't wait to finally pick apart the USC defense.

It all sounds nice and interesting. But it's all hype.

The Irish ain't gonna beat the Trojans. Not now. Not next year. Not anytime soon.

Notre Dame's 4-1 record was achieved mostly by late-game meltdowns (offensively, defensively or officially) by its mediocre opponents. Michigan State absolutely gagged the game away as it was marching down the field for a game-winning touchdown. Purdue choked with a blown assignment on the game's last meaningful offensive play, a fourth-down pass by Notre Dame. And with its victory over Washington, ND forever loses any future privilege for whining about the Bush Push, for the entire Irish offensive line drivepiled the ball into the end zone while the officials swallowed the whistle during the interminable 2-point conversion.

So there.

The fact remains that Notre Dame simply isn't in USC's class. The Trojans had their annual September slumber against an inferior Pac-10 opponent. That happens every year, and it continues to be the one thing that tarnishes Win Forever. But they usually hit their stride by October. And they don't give away games that they feel like they have something to play for.

Even with freshman quarterback Matt Barkley and a somewhat depleted running back corps, the Trojans still have enough firepower on offense to overwhelm the Irish. Defensively, USC has been its stout self this season, stifling high-powered offenses such as Ohio State, Cal and Washington with both speed and scheme. There is no reason that USC shouldn't be a prohibitive favorite in this game - by 10 points in most betting lines.

For Charlie Weis, building up this game will have consequences. He's in need of a signature win - so far in his four-plus years in South Bend, his most memorable moment was the near-miss Bush Push Game. Under Weis, the Irish have been trounced in each BCS bowl game. They have lost to Michigan whenever Michigan was any good. And they have not come close to beating USC except in 2005, Weis' first year.

The clock is ticking in the Weis Era. Another loss to USC will drop Notre Dame out of the top 25. The Irish do not have another opponent near the Trojans' stature left on their schedule. A 10-2 record, with losses to Michigan and USC (ND's two marquee rivals), will not get ND into a BCS bowl. It might be good enough to save Weis' job for another year. But for some of the true Notre Dame fans, that's just prolonging the agony.

★★★★★ GAME OF THE WEEK: Oklahoma vs. Texas, noon ET. Despite OU's two losses, the Red River Shootout in Dallas still takes the top billing this week. Sam Bradford is back for the Sooners, whose desperation to win this game should be obvious. A victory sends Oklahoma on track for the Big XII South title and a BCS bowl berth. A loss effectively ends its season. Texas has national championship aspirations, but the 'Horns won't win anything if they don't beat OU.

★★★★ FOUR-STAR GAME: USC at Notre Dame, 3:30 p.m. ET. The Trojans are still aiming for the BCS title, and the Irish think they have a shot at a BCS bowl. Somebody's plan will be unalterably changed after this game.

★★★ THREE-STAR GAME: Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech, 6 p.m. ET. The Hokies are No. 3 in the final Simulated BCS Standings and may stay there with a Texas loss. Their remaining schedule is much more agreeable than all the other major title contenders. And win here will keep VT as a potential frontrunner for the BCS championship game.

★★ TWO-STAR GAME: South Carolina at Alabama, 7:45 p.m. ET. The Tide have a considerably tougher schedule than Florida, as the two teams seem to be on a collision course to play for the SEC title and a spot in the BCS championship game. South Carolina has been steady if unspectacular, but whatever it's got won't be enough to win in Tuscaloosa.

★ ONE-STAR GAME: Iowa at Wisconsin, noon p.m. ET. The Big Ten's lone unbeaten team tries to emerge as a surprise contender not only for the Rose Bowl, but also for the game a week later in Pasadena. The Hawkeyes have danced on a tightrope in their victories against opponents big and small. The question is, how long can they keep up?

Thursday, September 3, 2009

No. 1 with a Whimper

The 2009 college football season is finally here, and our undisputed No. 1 team, the Florida Gators, will storm into the Swamp by taking on ...

Charleston Southern.

Let me tell you something about those Bucs. Their school has about 3,000 students, not enough to fill up one section at Florida Field. The private Baptist institution was founded in 1964 and started playing football in 1991. But the most important number for this weekend is not that they're a 73-point underdog (that's hypothetical, since most Vegas books have this one off the boards, so fergettabutit!)

It's $450,000, as in how much Charleston Southern is taking home for this beating, so the school can fund some nice facilities, presumably including a rehab center to mend the wounded warriors in future engagements of this ilk.



But this travesty is hardly the only Body Bag game of the week, just one of the many. Of the 74 games to be played this weekend, more than half (38) involve a I-AA team. For all the talk about the passion and pagaentry of college football over the NFL, this is not it. In fact, this kind of mismatches for purely financial gains (for both sides) leaves a terrible stain on the sport.

While Florida isn't the only one, the Gators are one of the more guilty. They played a I-AA team in each of the two BCS championship seasons (2006 and 2008) and has a I-AA team on the schedule every year from now through 2012. For all the talk that the SEC is the "toughest conference" in football, it rarely seeks to prove itself during the regular season, opting instead to load up with extra home games against cupcakes.

On Saturday, Florida likely won't have Tim Tebow on the field much after the first series of the second half. But just to keep things manageable, Charleston Southern should make sure to send their fellow Christian a reminder. Tebow is fond of wearing Phil 4:13 (I can do everything through him who gives me strength) on his eyeblack patches, the Bucs should return the favor by writing Luke 6:36 on theirs:

Be merciful, even as your Father is merciful.

★★★★★ GAME OF THE WEEK: The Florida-Charleston Southern game isn't it, sorry. The biggest game with BCS implications comes right out of the chute: Oregon at Boise State, tonight at 10 p.m. ET.

The Broncos are harboring grander thoughts than just crashing the BCS party. They want to go to where no Coalition team has gone before - play for the BCS title. It's still not going to happen, as their schedule after tonight contains not one ranked team for the rest of the season. But a victory will give them a leg up on the race for a BCS bowl berth.

★★★★ FOUR-STAR GAME: BYU vs. Oklahoma @ Dallas (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET). The Coalition team that has a shot (although a slim one) at a BCS title run is BYU, but it must pull off Mission Impossible - beating the Sooners in a virtual OU home game. Give the Sooners credit: In the Bob Stoops Era, they've played at least one, sometimes two, good nonconference opponent every season, sometimes not on their own turf. This game is a make-or-break for the Cougars' BCS aspirations.

★★★ THREE-STAR GAME: Alabama vs. Virginia Tech @ Atlanta (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET). It's the only matchup of the week that features two top-10 teams, but maybe it's just me, by the end of the season, both of those teams will prove to be overrated. The Hokies will get their shot at defending the ACC's honor as Clemson failed to do a year ago in what really is an Alabama home game.

★★ TWO-STAR GAME: Georgia at Oklahoma State (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET). The Bulldogs, one of the most travel-averse teams, venture out of Athens for a nonconference game for the second straight season. Mike Gundy's Cowboys have pretensions for the Big 12 throne and in Georgia, they will get an early test to see if all that T. Boone Pickens money is paying dividends.

★ ONE-STAR GAME: Nevada at Notre Dame (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET). It's pretty slim pickin's, but this game does offer some intrigue. For all the nonsense about how the Irish are back (Granny Lou Holtz has them going to the BCS title game), it can all go up in flames if somehow they choke against the Wolf Pack. Then Charlie Weis' internship will truly be over.

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

For Once, Notre Dame is No. 1

The 2007 season has not been kind to Charlie Weis. He has endured just about every humiliation imaginable.

First, he lost a very public trial on a questionable medical malpractice suit. Then, his Notre Dame team failed to score an offensive touchdown until leafs started to turn. The Irish began the season 1-9, including an ignominious loss to Navy that ended a 43-year ND winning streak against the academy. Weis' squad finished 3-9 (thanks to wins over brainiacs Duke and Stanford) with the nation's bottom-ranked offense.

So for 2008, Weis has no place to go but up, right?

How about starting No. 1?

While we have lambasted Weis when he deserved it, we also will bestow him credit when it's due. Weis and his assistants put together the best recruiting class of the year that mostly concluded on National Signing Day last week. This does not necessarily augur better days ahead for Notre Dame -- as these players still need to be coached -- but it's a good place to start.

So here are the Guru's Top 10 recruiting classes, giving equal consideration to quality and quantity:

1. Notre Dame -- Weis' haul of 23 players included four five-star players, whom he hopes to be the foundation of a renaissance, though that's at least a year or two away. Dayne Crist (Sherman Oaks Notre Dame HS), was among the best quarterbacks in the country and may give last year's prized signee and fellow Californian, Jimmy Clausen, some competition. WR Michael Floyd and TE Kyle Rudolph are also rated among the best at their respective positions. Weis bagged most of his recruits early, well before the disastrous 2007 season began and suffered no defections. And as is the norm with Notre Dame, this is a national class with players from 18 different states.

2. Alabama -- Like Weis, coach Nike Saban was in desperate need of good news after a dismal 7-6 season punctuated by a late collapse. In his first full recruiting season at 'Bama, Saban signed 32 players, including three rated as five-star prospects. A flurry of late signings helped boost the Crimison Tide's ranking, the most important being Julio Jones, the consensus top wide receiver in this class. Saban was able to fend off Florida and Florida State to keep the Foley HS star in state. Two other Alabama natives, LB Jerrell Harris and WR Marcel Dareus, also decided to stay home on signing day. Saban managed to keep in-house the best Alabama high school crops of recent vintage, including OT Tyler Love.

3. USC -- This is just another case of embarrassment of riches piling up at Troy. Pete Carroll only signed 19, but has as many five-star recruits as anyone. The Trojans shored up attrition on the offensive line by signing two of the top-ranked players at that position, Matt Kalil and Tyron Smith. Carroll also finished with a late surge, snatching DE Nick Perry (Detroit King HS) from Michigan and Michigan State, and CB T.J. Bryant (Tallahassee Lincoln HS) out from under Bobby Bowden and other SEC suitors. Besides the occasional forays across the country, USC as usual kept the best homegrown talent, signing 12 SoCal recruits, including TE Blake Ayles.

4. Georgia -- Coming off an 11-2 season culminated in a rout of Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl, the Bulldogs have a lot to look forward to in 2008. And Mark Richt did most of his work in 2007, with all but OT A.J. Harmon in the class of 23 committing before the bowl game. Georgia got a pair of skill position aces in WR A.J. Green and RB Richard Samuel. The Bulldogs didn't have to go very far for this recruiting bonanza, with 16 in-state recruits and the rest from neighboring states, including the class' top-rated kicker, Blair Walsh.

5. Ohio State -- Jim Tressel's class of 19 may get even better, as Ohio State is still waiting word from QB Terrelle Pryor, the top-rated recruit in this year's class. Even without Pryor, the Buckeyes hauled in a top-notch group that includes some of the nation's best linemen, including C Michael Brewster and T Mike Adams. Ohio State loaded up on defense but the class' one weakness is its dearth of skill position players. WR DeVier Posey is a good get, the question is, would he be catching passes from Pryor in a year or two?

6. Florida -- Coming off a shellacking at the hands of Michigan in the CapitalOne Bowl, Urban Meyer knew he needed to get Tim Tebow some help and also address the holes on a porous defense. Done and done. The Gators' class of 22 features some of the nation's top receivers, especially JC transfer Carl Moore from Sierra College in Rocklin, Calif. Moore's recruitment landed Meyer in hot water as an investigation ensued as to whether Meyer induced Moore to come to Gainesville by getting his girlfriend a gymnastics scholarship at Florida. Meyer, who fended off a strong late push from USC and Cal for Moore, eventually was cleared.

7. Oklahoma -- Another great regular season, another BCS bowl humiliation. For the third time in four years, the Sooners lost in a BCS bowl, this time a blowout to a coachless West Virginia team. So what does Bob Stoops do? He reloads. OU once again outmuscled Texas for some of the best recruits in the Lone Star State, getting more than half of its class of 21 south of the Red River. And it's not just quantity: The Sooners' top recruits are all Texans, including Justin Johnson and Jermie Calhoun, both among the top five running backs in the country.

8. Michigan -- Rich Rodriguez might've showed up late, but he didn't miss a beat. The Wolverines signed a class of 24, saving one scholarship for Pryor, who is trying to decide among Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State. Michigan made a late charge to vault into the top 10, signing eight players in the waning days before National Signing Day. Rodriguez kept most of Lloyd Carr's commitments and stole a couple from Big Ten rivals, including RB Michael Shaw from Penn State. Now if Pryor does decide to come to Ann Arbor, then Michigan will have a top-five class. Pryor has until April 1 to make his decision.

9. Miami (Fla.) -- Randy Shannon signed a whopping 33 players, finishing with a bang by getting five players to commit on National Signing Day, the biggest get being CB Brandon Harris (Miami Booker T. Washington HS), right in his backyard. Shannon and his staff didn't have to go far to get most of his recruits, with 23 of his signees being from Florida. The major weakness of this class is its lack of quality quarterbacks and running backs, as the Hurricanes have struggled mightily on offense in recent years.

10. LSU -- The defending BCS champion did well to preserve a spot in the top 10, though the Tigers owed their ranking more to quantity than quality. LSU did get one superstar in CB Patrick Johnson out of Pompano Beach, Fla., but the rest of the class of 26 is not laden with stars. Perhaps Les Miles' fling with Michigan caused some anxiety on the part of the recruits, but LSU didn't exactly reap any immediate benefits after winning the BCS championship. The Tigers got just three commitments after routing Ohio State in the title game.

Honorable Mention -- UCLA, Texas, Florida State, Clemson.

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Weis Guys Finish Last

When Charlie Weis showed up on the Notre Dame campus in 2005, one of the first things he told his new charges was that they would have "a schematic advantage" over every opponent, no matter the talent level.

Schematic, Shchematic.

Three years hence, that schematic advantage seems as elusive as offensive touchdowns by the Irish.

After the latest Notre Dame beatdown, this time at the hands of Michigan State, Weis insisted that he "didn't become a crummy coach overnight."

Well, it took about three years. Or more accurately, the other guys are just Weising up.

At 0-4, and fast going on 0-8, Notre Dame is at a crossroads. Some of the Irish Kool-Aid drinkers insist that the worst is behind them and that 2008 will surely return Notre Dame to glory. That 2007 was truly a rebuilding year, even if Weis himself didn't want to use the "R" word. That this is really all Tyrone Willingham's fault.

But is it?

After going 19-10 in his first two-plus seasons, it's time to take a hard look at what Weis has done. And upon further review, you really have to wonder how the Notre Dame brass feels about that 10-year contract it gave to Weis after he went 5-2 in his first seven games.

Weis went 9-3 in 2005, with two good wins (over Michigan in Ann Arbor and over Tennessee at home), a memorable loss (to No. 1 USC in South Bend with the Trojans pulling out a thriller in the final minute), a bad loss (to Michigan State) and a bowl blowout (to Ohio State in the Fiesta). After going 6-6 in Willingham's final season, this was an improvement, but hardly monumental since ND still couldn't beat SC or win a bowl game.

In 2006, it was more of the same in a 10-3 season. The Irish had one good win (over Penn State), two comeback wins over underdogs (Michigan State and UCLA) and three blowout losses (to Michigan, USC and LSU in the Sugar), that extended their losing streaks to USC (five games) and in bowl games (nine).

This year, Notre Dame has been blown out in four straight games, by teams with an overall record of 11-5 (or 7-5 after removing games against ND). Its next four games will be, at Purdue, at UCLA, at home to Boston College and USC, four teams with a combined record of 15-1. For good measure, the final quartet on Notre Dame's schedule might not be as much a pushover as first thought, as it's possible for the Irish to go 2-2 against Navy, Air Force, Duke and Stanford.

Dare we say it, 2-10?

Whatever happened to the "schematic advantage?"

Well, as Bear Bryant once said, it's still up to the players to play the games. You can blame Willingham's weak recruiting all you want, but Weis a) hasn't "coached them up" to be better than they are; b) hasn't shown that he's made much hay with his own recruits. And as far as the X's and O's stuff, college coaches might not be the rubes that Weis thought they were. Michigan's Lloyd Carr, for example, couldn't beat Appalachian State but has "out-coached" Weis to the tune of 85-21 over the last two years.

And it simply may be that Weis is ill-suited for the college game. He's no longer dealing with seasoned pros like when he was with the New England Patriots. Motivation at the college level, when paychecks are not part of the equation, is a very different thing. In his two-plus seasons with Notre Dame, Weis' best game as a coach was a near win, the 34-31 loss to USC in '05. He didn't beat a Top 10 team and lost big to those in the Top 10.

In other words, he won the games he's supposed to win. That might be an improvement over Willingham. But that isn't good enough -- not at a program with its own TV network.

Notre Dame will improve next year. One, there's no place to go but up after this season. Two, the schedule is considerably softer, with Pittsburgh, Syracuse and San Diego State replacing Penn State, Georgia Tech and Air Force. Three, Weis and his staff can really concentrate on recruiting this winter, without worrying about another annoying bowl blowout.

For the rest of the college football universe, it's time to rejoice. No BCS berth will go to the undeserving Irish this year. Baseless rumors of Weis going to the NFL will not clutter up the sports pages. Best of all, that "Clausen for Heisman" campaign will have to wait another year.

Let's not wake up the echoes for awhile longer.
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