The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Final)

The Guru's final BlogPoll ballot of 2010. With notes and tidbits below:

BCS Guru Ballot - Week 16

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Auburn Tigers	1
2	TCU Horned Frogs	1
3	Oregon Ducks	-2
4	Stanford Cardinal	--
5	Nevada Wolf Pack	--
6	Boise St. Broncos	--
7	Wisconsin Badgers	--
8	Ohio St. Buckeyes	--
9	LSU Tigers	4
10	Oklahoma Sooners	--
11	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	5
12	Alabama Crimson Tide	6
13	Arkansas Razorbacks	-1
14	Michigan St. Spartans	-5
15	Virginia Tech Hokies	-4
16	Missouri Tigers	-1
17	Utah Utes	--
18	Florida St. Seminoles	7
19	Mississippi St. Bulldogs	4
20	Texas A&M Aggies	-1
21	San Diego St. Aztecs	--
22	Air Force Falcons	2
23	Nebraska Cornhuskers	-9
24	Central Florida Knights	--
25	Tulsa Golden Hurricane	--
Dropouts: Hawaii Warriors, South Carolina Gamecocks

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

* After some debate on whether TCU or Auburn was more deserving to be No. 1, the Guru settled on the Tigers because of the superior strength of schedule. On balance, the Horned Frogs performed better in the bowl game than Auburn did, but the body of work over the course of the season favored Auburn.

* Every BCS conference team with no fewer than four losses was considered, as were non-BCS conference teams with three or fewer losses. Ultimately, only four of those teams were left out.

* Final conference breakdown: SEC (5), Big 12 (5), Mountain West (4), Big Ten (3), Pac-10 (2), WAC (2), ACC (2), CUSA (2). None for the Big East, MAC, Sun Belt and independents.

* Auburn started out of the top 25, made the ballot in Week 2 and steadily moved up since. This marks the first and only time Auburn is No. 1 on my ballot.

* TCU is the only team that stayed in the top 5 the entire season. The Frogs were No. 5 on the preseason ballot and rose to as high as No. 2, but never No. 1.

* Oregon and Boise State are the only other teams that stayed in the top 10 all season. The Ducks were No. 9 in the preseason, moved to No. 1 for Week 6 and stayed there until the final ballot. The Broncos were No. 3 in the preseason and finished No. 6.

* Ohio State, the preseason No. 1, finished No. 8. Of the 25 teams on my preseason ballot, 13 finished in the top 25.

* Texas (No. 2), Florida (No. 7) and Iowa (No. 8) were in the preseason top 10 but failed to finish in the final top 25. The Longhorns, in fact, finished with a losing season at 5-7.

* In all, 50 teams made the ballot throughout the season.

* Other teams considered for the final ballot: Maryland, N.C. State, West Virginia, Northern Illinois.

You Can Fix Computers, But Not Humans

Boise State jumped LSU in the final BCS standings a day after the release. The Broncos must've had a real spirited practice. Or was it an excellent team banquet?

Thanks to an error discovered by Jerry Palm, the flip-flop in the Colley Matrix computer rankings between Boise State and LSU resulted in the Broncos moving up to No. 10 in the BCS standings, one spot ahead of LSU. The same flip-flop between Alabama and Nebraska did not change any placements, though it did bump up the Huskers' ratings score a bit (but not Alabama's).

But just what does this all mean? The truth, not much.

First, let's give Palm, the Guru's competitor, credit for this discovery. And also Wes Colley, who's the only one of the six computer operators who makes his computer formula public and therefore it's verifiable. The acknowledgment of the error speaks well for Colley's integrity.

In the big picture, though, as much as this might come as shocking to some, it matters almost not at all. The reason? The BCS is rigged anyway. (Another shocking news!)

Alarmists like to point out what if the flip-flop didn't happen at Nos. 10-11, but at the critical Nos. 4-5 or even Nos. 2-3? For one, it would never happen at Nos. 2-3 as the system is so tilted toward the voters that they have the ultimate call on who gets to play for the BCS title anyway. The computer rankings, as I wrote previously, are completely irrelevant.

The brouhaha actually masks the real problem. Computer glitches happen and they're easily correctable. Human biases, however, are not. How do you justify, for example, that the Broncos are No. 16 on New Mexico coach Mike Locksley's ballot, six spots behind Virginia Tech (a team Boise beat and has two losses) and also behind three-loss Texas A&M?

This year's coaches' votes (and Harris, too, for that matter) are relatively controversy free. But that hardly means that "the system worked." The BCS's biggest problems have always been both a lack of transparency and an unacceptable conflict of interest. Until those are fixed, the computer problems are laughably insignificant.

You can have all six computer ratings audited and verified weekly as some have suggested (and I'm all for that, too) and that will not do that much to safeguard the standings. As long as the coaches and Harris voters get to keep their ballots secret for most of the season, and not throw any outliers out in the polls (as it's done with the computers), the voters can make a whole lot more difference than any of the computers.

And let's face it, as long as they place one-third of the standings in the hands of the coaches, who have a vested interest in all of this - ranging from postseason bonuses and job security to friendship and petty jealousies - the system will remain fatally flawed.

Let's also bring up another red herring, the much hyped automatic qualifying issue. Again, the exact component of the AQ formula and the "evaluation process" are just smoke screens. If the BCS wants the Big East in and Mountain West out, the "formula" will do exactly just that. TCU finally got the memo and hopped on the Big East wagon because it realized that unless the Dallas Cowboys decided to join the MWC, it's never going to be an AQ conference.

The bottom line should be crystal clear: The BCS is rigged and therefore can never be fixed.

The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Final Regular Season)

The Guru's final regular-season BlogPoll ballot. Very little movement on top, with a couple of notes below (including why Auburn is where it is):

BCS Guru Ballot - Week 15

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Oregon Ducks	--
2	Auburn Tigers	--
3	TCU Horned Frogs	--
4	Stanford Cardinal	--
5	Nevada Wolf Pack	--
6	Boise St. Broncos	--
7	Wisconsin Badgers	--
8	Ohio St. Buckeyes	--
9	Michigan St. Spartans	--
10	Oklahoma Sooners	4
11	Virginia Tech Hokies	5
12	Arkansas Razorbacks	-2
13	LSU Tigers	-2
14	Nebraska Cornhuskers	-2
15	Missouri Tigers	-2
16	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	-1
17	Utah Utes	--
18	Alabama Crimson Tide	--
19	Texas A&M Aggies	--
20	Hawaii Warriors	1
21	San Diego St. Aztecs	3
22	South Carolina Gamecocks	-2
23	Mississippi St. Bulldogs	--
24	Air Force Falcons	--
25	Florida St. Seminoles	-3
Dropouts: Northern Illinois Huskies

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

* I seriously considered dropping Auburn off the ballot altogether, as some of the Heisman voters have done vis-a-vis Cam Newton, but thought better of it. Newton may be an ineligible player (this is far from decided, folks, as the NCAA has not completed its investigation), but it would be grossly unfair to punish all the Tigers players. Therefore, Auburn stays on my ballot completely on its own merit. But needless to say, my opinion that the NCAA and SEC have done nearly everything wrong on the Newton case remains unchanged.

* Oklahoma and Virginia Tech move up by virtue of winning their respective conference championship games. The losers in those games (Nebraska, Florida State) are not severely punished.

* Seven conference champions are on the ballot, but Big East, Conference USA, MAC and Sun Belt did not make the cut. UConn does not quite deserve to get on it after blowout losses to Michigan and Temple (which is unfairly left out of a bowl despite an 8-4 record). Central Florida just misses the cut because it didn't beat any quality opponent. And Northern Illinois, which was on the ballot last week, drops out after losing in the MAC title game.

* Other teams considered: Central Florida, Connecticut, West Virginia.

SEC Picks Championship Over Integrity

(Updated with standings and BCS bowl projections, with analysis below)

Auburn is going to play Oregon in the BCS championship game. That's not a surprise.

The SEC, with help from the NCAA, isn't going to suspend Auburn quarterback Cam Newton even though the NCAA investigation has confirmed that Newton's father Cecil has broken a rule that in almost all instances would've rendered the player ineligible.

That, is not a surprise, either.

Digging deep into lawyerlese, SEC commissioner Mike Slive somehow found a way to justify the decision not to suspend Newton. But really, did anyone expect him to sit the SEC's meal ticket, the one who could run the SEC's streak in the BCS title game to five?

Not to mention the untold millions from both the BCS payout and added exposure for the conference.

This is the conference that has a coach who keeps on truckin' even though more than two dozens of his players have been arrested for one offense or another. Another coach who's made a habit of kicking substandard players off the team by accusing them of 'violating team rules' or claiming that they had career-ending injuries. How about oversigning? The SEC practically invented it.

You don't become the self-proclaimed "toughest conference in college football" by graduating players and keeping them out of jail. Or by scheduling decent teams in OOC games instead of having a tour of the Sun Belt and mauling whatever I-AA schools scattering throughout the old Confederacy.

Auburn's appearance in the BCS championship game is not a vindication of the SEC, but an indictment of it. This is a conference that has decided that it values winning above all else and therefore rules must be bent to satisfy that goal.

That is truly unfortunate. The SEC has plenty of law-abiding players who compete to play high-caliber football; and it has arguably the most rabid fans of anywhere in the country, even though some of them share the value system of those that run the conference.

So for the fifth year in a row and seventh time overall, an SEC team will take part in the BCS title game. By any means necessary.

(By the way, CBS really ought to be ashamed of that SEC championship broadcast, one that would've made Pravda and Xinhua proud. From Gary Danielson's absurd defense of Slive's decision, to Tracy Wolfson's sharing bodily fluids with Cam Newton. I thought they couldn't have topped their 2006 title game performance, but I was wrong.)

Projected BCS standings and matchups (for non-BCS bowl projections, see chart):

1. Oregon, 2. Auburn, 3. TCU, 4. Stanford, 5. Wisconsin, 6. Ohio State, 7. Oklahoma, 8. Arkansas, 9. Michigan State, 10. LSU, 11. Boise State, 12. Missouri, 13 Virginia Tech, 14. Oklahoma State, 15. Nevada.

BCS Championship: Oregon vs. Auburn
Rose Bowl: TCU vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl: Arkansas vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Stanford
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Connecticut

If even as many as one voter decided to flip his vote from Auburn to Oregon, the Ducks will be No. 1. The computer scores will be unchanged and the human votes are that tight. The projection is that maybe a handful of voters will change their votes to Oregon because of the Newton saga. But maybe not. In any event, it's largely irrelevant other than Oregon's uniform options.

The projection also calls for the Orange Bowl picking Stanford over UConn. Since neither school is expected to travel well, Stanford is fourth-ranked (vs. the currently unranked Huskies) with just one loss, and a compelling storyline involving coach Jim Harbaugh, who may be headed elsewhere. It's still possible that Fiesta makes the Orange an offer for future concessions and then the Orange bites the bullet and takes UConn instead.

The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 14)

The Guru's BlogPoll ballot, with a slight chance at the top, more below:

BCS Guru Ballot - Week 14

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Oregon Ducks	--
2	Auburn Tigers	2
3	TCU Horned Frogs	-1
4	Stanford Cardinal	1
5	Nevada Wolf Pack	4
6	Boise St. Broncos	-3
7	Wisconsin Badgers	--
8	Ohio St. Buckeyes	--
9	Michigan St. Spartans	2
10	Arkansas Razorbacks	3
11	LSU Tigers	-5
12	Nebraska Cornhuskers	2
13	Missouri Tigers	2
14	Oklahoma Sooners	2
15	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	-5
16	Virginia Tech Hokies	1
17	Utah Utes	1
18	Alabama Crimson Tide	-6
19	Texas A&M Aggies	--
20	South Carolina Gamecocks	--
21	Hawaii Warriors	1
22	Florida St. Seminoles	2
23	Mississippi St. Bulldogs	2
24	San Diego St. Aztecs	--
25	Northern Illinois Huskies	--
Dropouts: Arizona Wildcats, N.C. State Wolfpack

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

* I don't buy the media's sudden distaste for TCU, which was first unleashed by Rodney Gilmore on ESPN and since picked up by all sorts of talking heads, who've seen TCU probably once all season. OK, TCU's schedule hasn't been murder's row, but neither was Ohio State's (better check the facts before opening your mouth, Gordon Gee!). But if Ohio State is one of only two unbeaten teams left, you think you'd hear a single argument about whether the Buckeyes are worthy?

* That said, I had to move Auburn up to No. 2 after Boise State's loss. The Tigers were lucky to beat Alabama, but we're in the results business. They won, and they have played a much tougher schedule than TCU's. But they should not be ranked ahead of Oregon because ...

* Auburn does NOT play in the toughest conference in the country! The next time I hear that phrase used to describe the SEC I'm going to throw acid on my TV! The toughest conference this season is the Pac-10, yep, the conference that might have only three bowl eligible teams. Of the toughest 11 schedules played this season, nine belong to the Pac-10. The weakest schedule of any conference members is played by Oregon, at No. 19. The Pac-10 is the toughest conference because it plays nine conference games and challenging OOC games. These teams do not schedule, per Gordon Gee, the little sisters of the poor.

* Stanford is hands down the best one-loss team in the country. It's a shame that the Cardinal won't get another shot at Oregon, because these two just might be the two best teams in the country.

* Nevada might be overranked on my ballot a bit, but since they have the same record as Boise State, why shouldn't they be ranked ahead of the Broncos? And there is no way that Boise should be behind any of the one-loss Big Ten teams. Boise's SOS is 62, and the Big Ten trio: Michigan State (60), Ohio State (64), Wisconsin (71).

* Other teams considered this week: Air Force, West Virginia.

Does Auburn Have a Bye on Saturday?

Should Gene Chizik hold out Cam Newton and most of his starters on Saturday, not because of eligibility issues, but to rest them for the BCS title game?

Absurd thought, right? But not as far fetched as you think. There's a chance that Auburn can lose to South Carolina in the SEC championship game and still get in the BCS title game.

It's happened before, twice, when a team that lost its final game and still played for the BCS title: Nebraska in 2001 and Oklahoma in 2003. But it's not happened since '03 because of the most recent change in the BCS formula, which now grants two-thirds of its weight toward human polls.

So if Auburn loses on Saturday, the 173 voters in the coaches and Harris polls will be the judges in this beauty pageant that, if you think about it, is pretty much like American Idol or Dancing with the Stars.

This is how it works. Even with a loss, Auburn is expected to be No. 1 in at least 3 computers. Its final computer score will be No. 1, ahead of both Oregon and TCU, even with a loss. At worst, Auburn will have a .980 computer score.

Now, if TCU wants to get past Auburn, it had better hope that every voter has the Horned Frogs at no worse than No. 2. If that's the case, fine, TCU gets to play Oregon. If enough voters waffle on who should be No. 2 and split them up between TCU and Auburn, then TCU might not get that date with the Ducks.

There is already plenty of chatter about TCU's worthiness for the BCS title game, a battle joined by Rodney Gilmore during ESPN's show on Sunday, during which he brazenly discredited almost everything the Horned Frogs did this season. There is little doubt that such sentiment is shared by some of those voters, who will look for every excuse to prevent TCU from becoming the first non-AQ team to play for the BCS title.

That fear is clearly reflected in the school's rushed decision today to basically destroy all of its athletic programs by joining the Big East, in a vain quest to be part of the BCS crowd. Case-in-point: TCU has a powerhouse baseball program that soon must play UConn, Rutgers and Georgetown and nowhere near Texas, that's really going to help its recruiting tremendously.

But that's a different post for a different day. For now, here are the scenarios for BCS games:

Oregon and Auburn both win:

BCS Championship - Oregon vs. Auburn
Rose Bowl - TCU vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl - Arkansas vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl - ACC Champ vs. Big East Champ
Fiesta Bowl - Big 12 Champ vs. Stanford

Oregon loses, Auburn wins or loses:

BCS Championship - Auburn vs. TCU
Rose Bowl - Oregon vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl - Arkansas or South Carolina vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl - ACC Champ vs. Big East Champ
Fiesta Bowl - Big 12 Champ vs. Stanford

Oregon wins, Auburn loses:

(if 85% or more voters put Auburn third or worse)

BCS Championship - Oregon vs. TCU
Rose Bowl - Stanford vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl - South Carolina vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl - ACC Champ vs. Auburn
Fiesta Bowl - Big 12 Champ vs. Big East Champ

(if 15% or more voters put Auburn third or better)

BCS Championship - Oregon vs. Auburn
Rose Bowl - TCU vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl - South Carolina vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl - ACC Champ vs. Big East Champ
Fiesta Bowl - Big 12 Champ vs. Stanford

Of course, Chizik would do no such thing as holding out his best players, but the fact remains that as long as the Tigers don't get blown out of the building, they have a real shot to play for the BCS title even if they lose. No team other than the top three in the BCS standings has a prayer of getting into the title game no matter what happens Saturday, as Oregon will not be dropped behind Stanford after having beaten the Cardinal by 21 points earlier in the season.

As for the Rose Bowl, since I am the man who made the famous flub, of course I should predict, with utter confidence, that Wisconsin is in. No matter what happens this weekend, Badger fans, you can book your tickets to Pasadena now. The Guru says so. (And as a former resident of Pasadena, I may even offer you some tips.)

How the Guru Whiffed on Bucky

So I blew it. In my five years of being the BCS Guru, this was the worst flub I've ever had. Because one of the mistakes is so egregious, I owe you folks an explanation.

The first mistake was fairly minor, that Auburn went ahead of Oregon by .0002. I didn't foresee the Tigers gaining that much ground in the polls after a game that they were truly lucky to win (Alabama really should've had a 35-0 lead and put the game to bed in the second quarter). I knew Auburn would be No. 1 in all the computers, so as soon as both polls came out, I knew the exact margin and Tweeted it as much.

Now, the serious mistake was having Ohio State ahead of Wisconsin in the original projection. That of course goes beyond flip-flopping teams in the 5 and 6 spots because of what's at stake - a Rose Bowl berth.

First, there's the obvious question of whether this was a publicity stunt. Fair question. If it were, then that means I have no integrity and was going for the cheap thrill of getting undue attention. That's absolutely not the case. I've been toiling at this for too long and built up too much goodwill and trust than to risk it for some one-night stand.

Then it becomes a question of competence. Having your credibility in doubt isn't all that much better than having your integrity savaged. When no WMD was found in Iraq, President Bush was called either a liar or a dunce by his critics. Same here, but of course with much less at stake.

The erroneous projection happened because of a miscalculation of the polls and a simple data entry error. If only one of the two occurred, it would not have happened. That the fact both of them happened on this one projection (on Ohio State) made it a perfect storm.

First, the poll miscalculation. The polls are always harder to project than the computers because it involves psychology. You have to form an educated evaluation on the behavior of the voters. That's much more difficult than analyzing the computers, which follows a certain formula and ironclad logic. I had believed that by virtue of LSU's loss to Arkansas, thus removing it as a buffer between Ohio State and Wisconsin, the Buckeyes would gain significant ground in the polls.

That didn't happen in the margins I had forecast. Wisconsin lost only 26 points in the coaches poll and a completely unforeseen 24 points in the Harris poll, out of 114 voters. I had projected the Buckeyes to pick up about 100 points in the Harris poll with LSU gone, but that simply didn't happen.

Now you must wonder, given that I had to know Wisconsin would stay ahead of Ohio State in the two polls, did I completely screw up on the computers?

The truth is, I didn't. That's why this was such a mind-numbing debacle.

I simply transposed two projections. on Massey and Sagarin, I assigned the values of 20 (for No. 6) to OSU instead of OU on my spreadsheet, and 10 (No. 16) for OSU to OU.

By making these mistakes, Ohio State's computer numbers were inflated to .790 instead of .680 (OSU's actual BCS computer score was .660) and Oklahoma's was deflated from .780 to .640 (OU actual: .760). This explains why OU was also initially projected to be a spot lower (No. 10) than it ended up (No. 9).

I don't expect everyone who reads this blog to get all this - and you shouldn't have to. It was incumbent on me to check and double-check my own data before publishing the projections. Perhaps I was in too much of a rush to get the projections out (this has become a bad habit since I moved back to the West Coast), or maybe because I did so well the last two weeks (1-10 in exact order two weeks ago and 1-13 last week) that a little hubris got the better of meticulousness.

Whatever, it was my mistake and I own it. The only thing to do is to acknowledge it and make sure it won't happen again. I still maintain that my record speaks for itself over the years, against Jerry Palm, Brad Edwards, anybody. I have a report card dating from 2006 to prove it.

And finally, I don't mind the criticism and even the hate mail. I deserve it, and I won't erase any of it to cover my own ass. You can't make me feel any worse than I already do.

BCS Gets Lucky Once Again

(The Guru's Note: If you just found this post, be sure to read this also. Thank you.)

The BCS ought to cut Nevada a fat check, seeing the upset of Boise State saved it untold millions, not to mention a potential public relations nightmare. That, coupled with Auburn's Lazarus-like comeback against Alabama, is setting up a relatively controversy-free postseason.

The deal for the main event is now pretty cut-and-dried. It will be Oregon vs. Auburn. If either is upset next week, TCU, which has locked up at worst a Rose Bowl berth, will be the stand-in. The only potential for chaos now is if both teams go down next week - Oregon plays at Oregon State in the Civil War game and Auburn faces South Carolina in the SEC championship game.

The Cameron Newton saga actually isn't in play now. Even if the NCAA rules him ineligible, Auburn's victory will not be vacated by next week. Whatever the Tigers achieve this season may be erased later, but not before this season is over.

On the undercard, however, there's a whole lot going on ...

1) TCU: With its rout of New Mexico, TCU becomes the first team to complete an undefeated season. At worst, the Frogs will earn a Rose Bowl berth against the Big Ten champion. And with LSU's loss to Arkansas, their spot in the top three will not be threatened no matter what happens next week.

2) Rose Bowl: LSU's loss made the Wisconsin-Ohio State race much closer, because the Tigers were wedged between these two teams in the polls. So close that the Guru is calling Ohio State to edge slightly in front. Keep in mind that the Big Ten will send the highest ranked team in the final BCS standings to the Rose Bowl, so this won't be decided until next week even though the Big Ten schedule is done. The Rose Bowl will be rooting for an Auburn loss, because then it will be free to pick Stanford to replace Oregon.

3) Stanford: Losses by LSU and Boise State also have enormous meaning for Stanford, which is now in position to be guaranteed a BCS bowl berth. The Cardinal will be No. 4 in the new BCS standings, and by BCS rule, it will have to be chosen by one of the BCS bowls. It remains to be seen whether Jim Harbaugh will be coaching that game.

4) Big 12: Oklahoma's bedlam of a victory over Oklahoma State produced the dreaded three-way tie in the Big 12 South for the second time in three years. OU will gain enough ground to take the division but it just boggles the mind why conferences would choose to use a ranking system that's so easily manipulated by outside influences, or even the participants themselves. In the Big Ten's case, all three head coaches have a vote in the coaches poll; but in the Big 12's case, Mike Sherman has a vote but Bob Stoops and Mike Gundy don't. It's pure insanity.

5) The Biggest Loser: If it wasn't so important to the Broncos you'd think that they lost to Nevada just to spite the WAC, which stands to lose nearly $10 million by missing out on a BCS bowl. But Boise State lost its chance to play in its third BCS bowl, probably the Rose Bowl, and possibly a shot at the national championship. They won't even win the conference outright, and will be consigned to play in either the Kraft Fight Hunger or Humanitarian Bowl against some 6-6 team.

6) The Biggest Winner: Meanwhile, UConn, a team that was manhandled by a second-division Big Ten team (Michigan) and a fifth-place team in the MAC (Temple), is one win away from a BCS Bowl berth. The Big East is committing grand larceny.

7) Bowl picture: The Guru will have a complete breakdown on all the bowls next week, but on a quick count, we now have exactly 70 bowl eligible teams, filling all 35 bowl games, with four teams (Washington, Oregon State, Middle Tennessee State and Louisiana Tech) can still play their way in by winning their final game. Of those four, only UW is likely to win and get a bowl bid, and if it does, then Western Michigan is out.

This week's projected BCS standings: 1. Oregon, 2. Auburn, 3. TCU, 4. Stanford, 5. Ohio State, 6. Wisconsin, 7. Arkansas, 8. Michigan State, 9. LSU, 10. Oklahoma, 11. Boise State, 12. Oklahoma State, 13. Nebraska, 14. Missouri, 15. Nevada.

The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 13)

Another relatively quiet week as far as the top of the polls is concerned. Nebraska did go down - loudly, we might add, and obnoxiously, to the point where the school's chancellor was none too pleased:

BCS Guru Ballot - Week 13

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Oregon Ducks	--
2	TCU Horned Frogs	--
3	Boise St. Broncos	--
4	Auburn Tigers	--
5	Stanford Cardinal	--
6	LSU Tigers	--
7	Wisconsin Badgers	--
8	Ohio St. Buckeyes	--
9	Nevada Wolf Pack	2
10	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	--
11	Michigan St. Spartans	1
12	Alabama Crimson Tide	1
13	Arkansas Razorbacks	1
14	Nebraska Cornhuskers	-5
15	Missouri Tigers	--
16	Oklahoma Sooners	--
17	Virginia Tech Hokies	--
18	Utah Utes	--
19	Texas A&M Aggies	2
20	South Carolina Gamecocks	--
21	Arizona Wildcats	2
22	Hawaii Warriors	--
23	N.C. State Wolfpack	2
24	Florida St. Seminoles	--
25	Mississippi St. Bulldogs	--
Dropouts: USC Trojans, Northwestern Wildcats, Iowa Hawkeyes

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

* I'm not willing to move Boise State over TCU just yet. I might change my mind this week depending on the outcome of the Boise State-Nevada game. A lot of voters in other polls are of the same mind, though most of them have already defected to the Broncos over the past two weeks. Oregon and Auburn also have two more chances to make their final arguments, though the Tigers, with a cloud over Cam Newton and doubts about their defense, have the most to prove.

* With one-loss teams having dwindled down to just seven, it may be difficult for the BCS bowls to justify taking an at-large team with multiple losses over an undefeated TCU or Boise. If the Broncos should jump TCU in the final standings, now look for the Orange Bowl to "take one for the team" and pit the Frogs against the ACC champion. It would rather have an SEC team, such as either LSU or Alabama, but it may be too politically dangerous for the BCS.

* Other teams considered: Iowa, Air Force, San Diego State, West Virginia, Northern Illinois.