First Final Four in New Era

The College Football Playoff selection committee has some hard choices to make. Starting Friday night in Santa Clara, Calif., and ending Saturday night in Indianapolis, every one of its top six teams from last week won. And it only has four playoff spots to dole out.

But forget the canard that the selection committee looks at the entire picture from scratch every week; the 12 members already tipped their hand last week. The top three teams—Alabama, Oregon and TCU—all won impressively to claim a piece of their respective conference championships. No. 4 Florida State as usual labored to win its game, but as the only unbeaten team in the FBS it will get to defend its national title.

That leaves Ohio State and Baylor on the outside, but the committee can reasonably defend its decision for leaving them out. These two teams easily had the worst losses among the contenders—Ohio State to 6-6 Virginia Tech and Baylor to 7-5 West Virginia—and also the weakest schedules (according to Jeff Sagarin).

Despite Ohio State's impressive thrashing of Wisconsin, the problem remains that the committee views the Big Ten as the weakest Power Five conference, and with good reason. Each of the Big Ten's top four teams lost a nonconference game to a Power Five opponent, and Ohio State's loss to Virginia Tech was actually the worst among them.

As for Baylor, its nonconference schedule and how it performed against the nine common opponents will allow the committee to overlook the Bears' head-to-head victory over TCU as both teams shared the Big 12 title with identical 11-1 records.

Of course, unlike the BCS, we can no longer project the rankings with confidence, as the final decision will be made by 12 people and nothing else. And since this is year one of the College Football Playoff, we have no precedent to go by.

That said, this is how we project the committee's final rankings, to be released at 12:45 p.m. ET Sunday.

Projected Final CFP Rankings

Rank	Lw	Team	Best Win*	Losses*
1	1	Alabama	No. 8 Miss State	No. 9 Ole Miss
2	2	Oregon	No. 7 Michigan State	No. 12 Arizona
3	3	TCU	No. 11 Kansas State	No. 6 Baylor
4	4	Florida State	No. 10 Georgia Tech	None
5	5	Ohio State	No. 7 Michigan State	Virginia Tech (6-6)
6	6	Baylor	No. 3 TCU	West Virginia (7-5)
7	8	Michigan State		2
8	10	Miss State		2
9	12	Ole Miss		3
10	9	Kansas State		3
11	11	Georgia Tech		3
12	7	Arizona		3
13	14	Georgia		3
14	15	UCLA		3
15	17	Arizona State		3
16	16	Missouri		3
17	13	Wisconsin		3
18	18	Clemson		3
19	19	Auburn		4
20	21	Louisville		3
21	22	Boise State		2
22	23	Utah		4
23	24	LSU		4
24	25	USC		4
25	NR	Minnesota		4

* Projected rankings

No. 1 vs. No. 4: Alabama vs. Florida State, Sugar Bowl - The matchup of the teams that won the last three national championships will be intriguing. Florida State was wobbly all season but never lost a game, something the other 127 FBS teams couldn't do. Alabama looks primed to continue its dynasty-interrupted with Lane Kiffin calling the shots of a dynamic offense.

No. 2 vs. No. 3: Oregon vs. TCU, Rose Bowl - It'll be TCU's second Rose Bowl berth in five years—only Wisconsin has more appearances in that span. The last time the Horned Frogs were in Pasadena they were the gritty underdogs from the Mountain West and beat the Badgers to finish the season unbeaten. This time they'll face an explosive Oregon team piloted by the presumptive Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota.

Group-of-Five Bid
Boise State, the only non-Power Five team in last week's committee rankings, made things easy for the committee by taking care of Fresno State to win the Mountain West title late Saturday night. The Broncos likely will earn a trip to the Fiesta Bowl, their third in nine years. They beat Oklahoma and TCU in their two previous appearances in the BCS era.

Committee Sets Stage for Final Rankings

Sorry, Baylor.

The selection committee delivered an emphatic message Tuesday night, practically anointing the four teams that will make the inaugural College Football Playoff field. That leaves Baylor and Ohio State on the outside looking in, even if they won their respective final regular-season games.

By moving TCU up one spot to No. 3—over undefeated Florida State (12-0)—the committee is indicating that the Horned Frogs' playoff position is unassailable as long as they defeat 2-9 Iowa State at home Saturday. A Baylor victory over Kansas State will earn the Bears a co-Big 12 championship, but that, along with their 61-58 win over TCU earlier in the season, won't be enough for them to leapfrog TCU.

So that's where we stand with five days remaining before the committee's final rankings are revealed Sunday morning. Here are five other observations:

1. Head-to-head matters, sort of
While it's listed as one of the major criteria for the committee, chairman Jeff Long has consistently downplayed its value. After Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby artfully declined to name "one true champion" on Monday, Long echoed that sentiment a day later.

This gives the committee a convenient out in terms of following one of its other major criteria—conference championship—since the Horned Frogs will be able to share the Big 12 title with the Baylor-Kansas State winner as long as they beat Iowa State.

2. Florida State, undefeated, unloved
Another week, another win, and the Seminoles dropped another spot. Jameis Winston and Co. have strung together a series of ugly victories, but being the only unbeaten team in FBS somehow isn't good enough for the committee (or the Associated Press Top 25, which seems to be aping the committee of late).

The silver lining for FSU is that it's not in danger of falling out of the playoff field as long as it beats No. 11 Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship Game Saturday, which will account for its best win of the season, according to the current rankings.

3. How would BCS standings have looked?
If the late, great Bowl Championship Series was still in business, its standings would've yielded the same four playoff teams, though in a slightly different order. Alabama, Florida State, Oregon and TCU would be in the top four, with Ohio State and Baylor significantly behind.

A composite of over 100 computer rankings would in fact put Ohio State in the playoff field ahead of Florida State, with Baylor a long way down at No. 8.

4. If there are upsets of Top Four teams, then what?
Other than TCU, the teams currently in the playoff field are all playing conference championship games this weekend. If any of them lose, it figures to benefit Ohio State and Baylor. But because of its ranking, don't discount the possibility of No. 7 Arizona jumping into the four-team playoff with a second victory over Oregon.

5. Stay up late for Group of Five crowning
Boise State is the only team not from the Power Five conferences in the rankings. If the Broncos defeat 6-6 Fresno State for a second time this season, they will clinch their third major bowl bid in nine years, likely another Fiesta Bowl berth. It'll be a late, late show since the Mountain West Championship Game is the last game Saturday night with a 10 p.m. ET kickoff.

Playoff Committee Rankings Comparison

Rank	Team	B/R Mock	BCS	vs. T25 Then*	vs. T25 Now
1	Alabama	1	1	4-1	3-1
2	Oregon	2	4	3-0	3-1
3	TCU	4	2	4-1	3-1
4	Florida St.	3	3	3-0	2-0
5	Ohio St.	5	5	2-0	1-0
6	Baylor	6	6	2-0	2-0
7	Arizona	7	7	3-1	3-2
8	Michigan St.	10	9	1-2	0-2
9	Kansas St.	8	10	1-2	1-2
10	Miss St.	9	8	3-2	1-2
11	Georgia Tech	12	13	2-0	2-0
12	Ole Miss	14	11	3-3	3-2
13	Wisconsin	11	12	2-1	0-1
14	Georgia	15	15	3-2	3-1
15	UCLA	16	16	3-1	3-2
16	Missouri	13	14	2-1	0-1
17	Arizona St.	17	18	4-2	1-2
18	Clemson	20	20	0-3	1-3
19	Auburn	18	19	3-3	2-3
20	Oklahoma	19	17	0-3	0-3
21	Louisville	21	21	0-1	0-2
22	Boise St.	22	22	0-1	0-1
23	Utah	24	26	2-3	2-3
24	LSU	23	23	2-2	2-3
25	USC	25	25	2-2	1-3

* Ranked by AP/committee at time of game