Committee Sets Stage for Final Rankings

Sorry, Baylor.

The selection committee delivered an emphatic message Tuesday night, practically anointing the four teams that will make the inaugural College Football Playoff field. That leaves Baylor and Ohio State on the outside looking in, even if they won their respective final regular-season games.

By moving TCU up one spot to No. 3—over undefeated Florida State (12-0)—the committee is indicating that the Horned Frogs' playoff position is unassailable as long as they defeat 2-9 Iowa State at home Saturday. A Baylor victory over Kansas State will earn the Bears a co-Big 12 championship, but that, along with their 61-58 win over TCU earlier in the season, won't be enough for them to leapfrog TCU.

So that's where we stand with five days remaining before the committee's final rankings are revealed Sunday morning. Here are five other observations:

1. Head-to-head matters, sort of
While it's listed as one of the major criteria for the committee, chairman Jeff Long has consistently downplayed its value. After Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby artfully declined to name "one true champion" on Monday, Long echoed that sentiment a day later.

This gives the committee a convenient out in terms of following one of its other major criteria—conference championship—since the Horned Frogs will be able to share the Big 12 title with the Baylor-Kansas State winner as long as they beat Iowa State.

2. Florida State, undefeated, unloved
Another week, another win, and the Seminoles dropped another spot. Jameis Winston and Co. have strung together a series of ugly victories, but being the only unbeaten team in FBS somehow isn't good enough for the committee (or the Associated Press Top 25, which seems to be aping the committee of late).

The silver lining for FSU is that it's not in danger of falling out of the playoff field as long as it beats No. 11 Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship Game Saturday, which will account for its best win of the season, according to the current rankings.

3. How would BCS standings have looked?
If the late, great Bowl Championship Series was still in business, its standings would've yielded the same four playoff teams, though in a slightly different order. Alabama, Florida State, Oregon and TCU would be in the top four, with Ohio State and Baylor significantly behind.

A composite of over 100 computer rankings would in fact put Ohio State in the playoff field ahead of Florida State, with Baylor a long way down at No. 8.

4. If there are upsets of Top Four teams, then what?
Other than TCU, the teams currently in the playoff field are all playing conference championship games this weekend. If any of them lose, it figures to benefit Ohio State and Baylor. But because of its ranking, don't discount the possibility of No. 7 Arizona jumping into the four-team playoff with a second victory over Oregon.

5. Stay up late for Group of Five crowning
Boise State is the only team not from the Power Five conferences in the rankings. If the Broncos defeat 6-6 Fresno State for a second time this season, they will clinch their third major bowl bid in nine years, likely another Fiesta Bowl berth. It'll be a late, late show since the Mountain West Championship Game is the last game Saturday night with a 10 p.m. ET kickoff.

Playoff Committee Rankings Comparison

Rank	Team	B/R Mock	BCS	vs. T25 Then*	vs. T25 Now
1	Alabama	1	1	4-1	3-1
2	Oregon	2	4	3-0	3-1
3	TCU	4	2	4-1	3-1
4	Florida St.	3	3	3-0	2-0
5	Ohio St.	5	5	2-0	1-0
6	Baylor	6	6	2-0	2-0
7	Arizona	7	7	3-1	3-2
8	Michigan St.	10	9	1-2	0-2
9	Kansas St.	8	10	1-2	1-2
10	Miss St.	9	8	3-2	1-2
11	Georgia Tech	12	13	2-0	2-0
12	Ole Miss	14	11	3-3	3-2
13	Wisconsin	11	12	2-1	0-1
14	Georgia	15	15	3-2	3-1
15	UCLA	16	16	3-1	3-2
16	Missouri	13	14	2-1	0-1
17	Arizona St.	17	18	4-2	1-2
18	Clemson	20	20	0-3	1-3
19	Auburn	18	19	3-3	2-3
20	Oklahoma	19	17	0-3	0-3
21	Louisville	21	21	0-1	0-2
22	Boise St.	22	22	0-1	0-1
23	Utah	24	26	2-3	2-3
24	LSU	23	23	2-2	2-3
25	USC	25	25	2-2	1-3

* Ranked by AP/committee at time of game

A Big 12 Fight to the Finish

TCU, Baylor or Ohio State?

That will be the selection committee's toughest task, picking one of those three teams to place in the College Football Playoff field. Each of the top six teams in the committee's next rankings will be playing this weekend in games they are favored.

The top three teams—Alabama, Oregon and Florida State—will all be playing in their respective conference title games and they're in with a victory. If any of them should lose, it opens the door for another one of the aforementioned "next three."

Ohio State has a major issue. On one hand, the Buckeyes hope the committee won't hold the season-ending injury to Heisman candidate QB J.T. Barrett against them. On the other, they must defeat Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game with Barrett's backup Cardale Jones.

PROJECTED RANKINGS

So in all likelihood, the final spot will be contested by the two Big 12 teams, with each having a chance to win a share of the conference title. As there is no Big 12 Championship Game, both TCU and Baylor can claim at least to be a co-champion with a win next week.

This is where things get tricky. Baylor defeated TCU 61-58 at home earlier this season, rallying from 21 points down with 11 minutes remaining to hand the Horned Frogs their only loss of the season. But the problem for the Bears is that the committee thinks there's enough of a resume gap between the two teams for the head-to-head result not to matter.

TCU and Baylor each played an FCS team and the Horned Frogs routed Big Ten title contender Minnesota while the Bears blew out MAC also-ran Buffalo. Besides getting a lift from the Gophers' surprising season, TCU also owns a significant advantage over Baylor in the games so far against nine common opponents.

As TCU is unlikely to lose to 2-9 Iowa State, Baylor must defeat Kansas State impressively to have any shot of catching the Horned Frogs in the eyes of the committee. Making the task more difficult is that the Wildcats are playing for much more than spoiler, as they also will claim at least a share of the Big 12 title with a victory.

TCU, Baylor Common Opponents

TCU	Opponent	Baylor	Advantage
+56 *	SMU	+45	TCU
+38 *	Texas	+21 *	TCU
+1 *	West Virginia	-14 *	TCU
+33	Oklahoma State	+21	TCU
+55	Texas Tech	+2	TCU
+4	Oklahoma	+34 *	Baylor
+4 *	Kansas	+46	Baylor
Dec. 6	Iowa State	+21*
+21	Kansas State	Dec. 6
-3 *	Baylor/TCU	+3	Baylor

* Road game

Other Fun Facts
* Boise State is a victory over 6-6 Fresno State in the Mountain West Championship Game away from the inaugural CFP group-of-five automatic bid. It will be the Broncos' third major bowl appearance in the last nine seasons and likely it'll be a third Fiesta Bowl berth. Northern Illinois and Memphis figure to be next in line if Boise State somehow stumbles.

* The rest of the 11 bowl slots, of course, will all go to the power five conferences. The SEC will get three berths while the other conferences will receive two each. Mississippi State probably has a bid wrapped up regardless of how the conference championship games go.

* There are a total of 80 bowl eligible teams, with Oklahoma State and Temple can still earn eligibility. Georgia Southern, Appalachian State and Old Dominion will not go bowling as they're all in the second year of FBS transition and thus ineligible. Looks like Middle Tennessee, South Alabama, UAB and Ohio—all 6-6— will be left out despite being eligible.

Hard to Explain Away SEC Bias

So preseason rankings do matter after all?

While the selection committee's top seven teams stayed exactly the same Tuesday, chairman Jeff Long's explanations for the latest College Football Playoff rankings are beginning to defy both logic and the committee's own procedural guidelines.

Last week he introduced the concept of "game control" to justify Alabama's No. 1 ranking, and this week he came up with "quality loss" and one other whopper during the ESPN broadcast: It matters if a team is ranked when it is beaten.

Therefore, Alabama still gets credit for wins over LSU and Texas A&M though neither is now ranked, as does Mississippi State. This goes directly against the committee's protocol to look at the entire body of work and not rely on preseason perception.

Long later scrambled on a conference call with reporters to say that only the committee's own rankings matter, not the preseason and early-season variety as produced by the AP or Coaches Polls. The problem is that doesn't wash either.

By this criteria Mississippi State has beaten exactly zero teams as ranked by the committee at the time of the game, yet it's still at No. 4, ahead of other one-loss teams—TCU, Baylor and Ohio State—that have beaten committee-ranked opponents.

Maybe the problem is having these weekly announcements and the need to come up with tortured logic to explain rankings that are by no means a consensus. But since we're here to pick them apart, let's look at five more issues:

1. Is SEC bias creeping in?
Long's most controversial moves so far have been made to favor SEC teams—placing Alabama No. 1 ahead of Oregon and putting Mississippi State in the playoff field (as of now). The fact that he's the Arkansas athletic director does not help.

ESPN, the network that will televise all playoff games (not to mention all but one of the 39 bowl games), co-owns and operates the SEC Network. A conflict of interest will be suspected by all outside parties.

2. Winning is not enough, just ask Florida State
The scoreboard is taking a backseat to Game Control Theory™ and Quality Loss, two elements that the defending national champions have not been able to master. Because of their propensity to pull out last-minute wins (without a loss), the Seminoles continue to be banished to No. 3.

And while they've beaten three teams that were ranked at the time of the game (and two still currently ranked), that doesn't seem to matter either.

3. The committee loves Minnesota, and so does TCU
The Golden Gophers are certainly one of the feel-good stories of the season, and they're one win away from claiming the Big Ten West title. But the committee has taken that admiration to another level, putting Minnesota four spots higher than it is in the polls and about 12 higher than its average computer ranking.

This is all very lovely for TCU, however, as its 30-7 win over the Gophers early in the season is what prevents its head-to-head loss to Baylor from mattering, at least for now.

4. Who's afraid of Virginia Tech?
Ohio State's home loss to Virginia Tech looks worse every week, especially after the Hokies were shut out in regulation by 3-8 Wake Forest in last Saturday's desultory 6-3 two-overtime loss. But was it really that bad? Long said the committee doesn't view that 35-21 defeat against the now 5-6 Hokies as a terrible loss.

Virginia Tech was not ranked then (and of course it isn't now), but Long's response seems to suggest that the Buckeyes will be able to overcome that by winning the Big Ten championship.

5. Marshall is unbeaten and looks doomed
The committee finally put a group-of-five (actually two) team back in the rankings after snubbing those teams the past three weeks. But 11-0 Marshall is one spot behind 9-2 Boise State, and the remaining schedule certainly favors the Broncos to stay ahead.

The committee has made a big deal out of nonconference schedules, and Marshall's is admittedly weak (though that apparently doesn't apply to Mississippi State). But is Boise's strong enough to trump two losses?

Playoff Committee Rankings Comparison

Rank	Team	B/R Mock	AP Poll	vs. T25 Then*	vs. T25 Now
1	Alabama	1	2	3-1	1-1
2	Oregon	2	3	3-0	3-1
3	Florida St.	3	1	3-0	2-0
4	Miss St.	4	4	3-1	1-1
5	TCU	5	6	4-1	3-1
6	Ohio St.	6	7	2-0	2-0
7	Baylor	7	5	2-0	2-0
8	UCLA	8	9	3-1	2-2
9	Georgia	9	8	3-1	3-0
10	Michigan St.	11	10	1-2	0-2
11	Arizona	12	12	2-1	2-1
12	Kansas St.	10	11	1-2	1-2
13	Arizona St.	13	13	4-1	1-1
14	Wisconsin	16	14	1-1	0-0
15	Auburn	14	15	3-2	1-2
16	Ga. Tech	17	16	1-0	1-0
17	Missouri	18	17	2-1	0-1
18	Minnesota	20	22	1-1	0-2
19	Ole Miss	15	18	2-2	2-1
20	Oklahoma	19	20	0-3	0-3
21	Clemson	21	23	0-3	1-3
22	Louisville	22	24	0-1	0-2
23	Boise St.	26	25	0-1	0-1
24	Marshall	25	19	0-0	0-0
25	Utah	32	28	2-3	1-3

* Ranked by AP/committee at time of game