BCS Review Series: 2008, SEC Claims High Ground in Narrative

Part 11 of a series: Over the next few weeks, I will be reviewing each of the 16 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. Here is a look back at who got lucky, who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear throughout December and January.

Part 1: 1998, A New Beginning for College Football

Part 2: 1999, FSU Ends Michael Vick's Quest for Perfection

Part 3: 2000, FSU-Miami Sows Seeds of Controversy

Part 4: 2001, Nebraska Fiasco Rocks College Football

Part 5: 2002, Controversy On-Field Mars Perfect Ending

Part 6: 2003, Nightmare of Split National Championship

Part 7: 2004, Unbeaten Auburn Left Out in the Cold

Part 8: 2005, Perfect Season Ends With Epic at Rose Bowl

Part 9: 2006, Dawn of SEC's Reign in College Football

Part 10: 2007, LSU Goes "Undefeated in Regulation"

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Two consecutive blowout victories in the BCS championship game (both over Ohio State) helped to jump-start the narrative of SEC supremacy. Now self-branded as "the toughest conference in college football," the SEC's dominance in perception became that much more evident.

At the end of the regular season, seven BCS conference teams finished with one loss each, and two others—Utah and Boise State—went undefeated. But just as it was in 2007, when five major conference champions vied for one BCS title game slot, in 2008 the SEC came out on top yet again.

For the second time in three years, Florida made it to the BCS title game, this time despite a loss at home to Ole Miss. The Gators sunk to No. 15 in the BCS standings, all but seemingly out of it, after the late-September loss to the Rebels. Yet after defeating previously-unbeaten Alabama in the SEC title game, Florida had a date in Miami with Oklahoma in the BCS title game.

USC wasn't so lucky after also an early-September loss at Oregon State. The Trojans had opened the season with a resounding 35-3 pounding of No. 3 Ohio State at the Coliseum. But despite running the table the rest of the way—including three shutouts and five other games where they gave up just one score—that lone loss to the Beavers proved fatal to their title aspirations.

The same was the case for Penn State, which suffered its lone loss on a last-second field at Iowa in early November. It was the second time in four years that Joe Paterno's team was one play away from a perfect regular season. And just like in 2005, the Nittany Lions never got a whiff of the BCS title game.

Then there was the trio of Big 12 teams that managed to deal each other a single loss in a Reservoir Dogs-style Mexican standoff. Texas defeated Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout. Texas Tech shot down the Longhorns on a last-second TD catch by Michael Crabtree. Then Oklahoma slaughtered the Red Raiders to complete the three-way tie for first place in the Big 12 South.


The Sooners edged Texas (and Texas Tech) in the penultimate BCS standings, thanks entirely to superior computer rankings, earning a trip to the Big 12 title game, where they routed Missouri to earn a spot in the BCS title game. Longhorns coach Mack Brown, who had swiped a Rose Bowl berth in 2004 when the BCS standings worked in his favor, now had his comeuppance.

At the end, the team that had the most amount of legitimate grievance might've been Utah, which finished the season as the lone undefeated team. The Utes dominated Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, beating the Tide (31-17) worse than Florida did in the SEC title game (31-20). In the final AP poll, 16 of the 65 voters cast their ballots with Utah No. 1, but that wasn't enough to earn a split championship after Tim Tebow and Co. held off the turnover-prone Sooners in the BCS title game.

Final BCS Standings: 1. Oklahoma, 2. Florida, 3. Texas, 4. Alabama, 5. USC, 6. Utah, 7. Texas Tech.

Likely four-team playoff: Oklahoma vs. Utah; Florida vs. USC.
With preference for conference champions and that Utah had a better resume than fellow unbeaten Boise State, these four teams would've been the most solid picks, even without the benefit of hindsight.

Controversies

BCS standings as a tiebreaker: The BCS standings were created for the sole purpose of matching up the top two-ranked teams to play for the BCS title. Yet, by the mid-2000s, conferences began using the standings to break ties either for the conference title or within divisions. This misapplication had its worst consequences in 2008, when OU just nudged Texas—a team it had lost to—for a spot in the Big 12 title game and, ultimately, a spot in the BCS title game.

This misuse would continue, without being discouraged by the BCS brass, until the end of the BCS era. In fact, even conferences that had no part in the BCS tried to use it to break ties, leading to the comical Conference USA debacle in 2013.

Boise State snub: For the second time in the BCS era, Boise State went undefeated and was denied a BCS bowl berth, also the sixth time it finished with either zero or one loss and had to settle for a minor bowl.

The Broncos were ranked No. 9 in the final BCS standings, yet they weren't guaranteed a berth because another non-AQ champion, Utah, was ahead at No. 6. The Fiesta Bowl then bypassed Boise to take No. 10 Ohio State as an at-large, while both No. 12 Cincinnati (Big East) and No. 19 Virginia Tech (ACC) had automatic berths.

But this Boise State snub generated enough public outrage that, when the very scenario occurred again the next year, the Broncos were given their just due.

2008 BCS Bowl Matchups

Bowl	Score	Attendance	TV Rating
BCS Champ*	#2 Florida 24, #1 Oklahoma 14	78,468	15.8
Rose Bowl	#3 USC 38, #8 Penn State 24	93,293	11.7
Fiesta Bowl	#3 Texas 24, #10 Ohio State 21	72,047	10.4
Sugar Bowl	#6 Utah 31, #4 Alabama 17	71,872	7.8
Orange Bowl	#19 Va. Tech 20, #12 Cincinnati 7	73,602	5.4

Final analysis: With Florida's win over Oklahoma in the BCS title game, the "SEC-as-top-dog" perception reached new heights as the conference has now won three straight BCS championships. The on-field success helped to fuel the off-field brand building process that permanently granted the SEC a first-among-equals status for the remainder of the BCS era.

The SEC champion reached the BCS title game in each of the eight years between 2006-2013. And in seven of those eight seasons, an SEC team beat out another major conference champion that had the same number of losses for a spot in the championship game—including in 2011, when Alabama advanced to the all-SEC title matchup in spite of not winning its division.

The Tide lost back-to-back games to Florida and Utah to finish the 2008 season, but their dynasty was just on the verge of being unleashed.

BCS Review Series: 2004, Unbeaten Auburn Left in the Cold

Part 7 of a series: Over the next few weeks, I will be reviewing each of the 16 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. Here is a look back at who got lucky, who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear throughout December and January.

Part 1: 1998, A New Beginning for College Football

Part 2: 1999, FSU Ends Michael Vick's Quest for Perfection

Part 3: 2000, FSU-Miami Sows Seeds of Controversy

Part 4: 2001, Nebraska Fiasco Rocks College Football

Part 5: 2002, Controversy On-Field Mars Perfect Ending

Part 6: 2003, Nightmare of Split National Championship

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If 2003 was a wakeup call for the BCS, then 2004 represented a broken snooze button.

The alarm just kept blaring.

Five teams went undefeated in the regular season, but in the end, USC and Oklahoma faced off for the BCS title while SEC champion Auburn was left with a consolation prize of appearing in the Sugar Bowl. Mountain West champion Utah did get a BCS berth, but its opponent—Pittsburgh—was so overmatched in the Fiesta Bowl that the Utes didn't get to prove their mettle either. WAC champion Boise State was left out of the BCS picture altogether.

There was no split championship in 2004, as there had been in 2003, mostly because the Trojans mauled the Sooners, 55-19. Even Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville, who was on hand to troll for AP votes, conceded during ABC's halftime show that USC would be difficult to beat "when you give (offensive coordinator) Norm Chow a month to get ready for somebody."

But that was hardly a happy ending for the BCS, which had completely overhauled its formula from the previous season.

In fact, the BCS formula, in retrospect, may be viewed in two phases.

BCS I ran from its inception in 1998 through the disastrous 2003 season that ended with a split national championship. While there had been alterations, they were mostly minor. BCS II emerged in the 2004 season, with human polls taking over the preponderance of the equation.

Ironically, BCS I and BCS II both would've yielded the same USC-Oklahoma result in 2004, leaving Auburn and Utah out of the title game. It's fairly easy to explain why both Utah and Boise State were left out. The non-BCS conferences are not respected by the voters, even if the computers treat them more fairly. The Mountain West in 2004 also was not a particularly solid conference, with only three teams finishing with winning records, as both New Mexico and Wyoming went 7-5.

The last non-BCS school to win a national championship was Brigham Young in 1984, and it likely will remain the last well after this country elects a woman president, and possibly into eternity.
As for Auburn, two factors proved fatal to its BCS title prospects.

First, the Tigers were lightly regarded before the season started, checking in at No. 17 in the preseason AP poll. Auburn eventually worked its way up to No. 3, but could never crack the stranglehold that USC and Oklahoma held on Nos. 1 and 2—going wire-to-wire atop the AP poll.

The second factor was that the Tigers played an extremely non-competitive non-conference schedule, just as LSU did in 2003, along with most of the other SEC teams.

Of Auburn's 11 regular-season games in 2004, seven were at home. The Tigers' three non-conference games were against Louisiana-Monroe, Louisiana Tech and I-AA Citadel—all at home. Compare that with USC (at Virginia Tech and BYU, home to Colorado State and Notre Dame) and Oklahoma (home against Bowling Green, Houston and Oregon), it's easy to see that both the voters and computers punished Auburn for its soft schedule.

The Tigers eked out a 16-13 win over Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl to finish second in the final AP and coaches polls. But that didn't stop Tuberville and Auburn from declaring themselves champions. The Tigers made themselves big diamond rings to commemorate their "championship" season, and those rings became available on eBay.

Final BCS Standings: 1. USC, 2. Oklahoma, 3. Auburn, 4. Texas, 5. California, 6. Utah.


Alternative Methods

Using 1998-2003 (BCS I) formula: 1. USC, 2. Oklahoma, 3. Auburn, 4. Texas.

Likely four-team playoff: USC vs. Utah; Oklahoma vs. Auburn.

Since neither California nor Texas won its respective conference, Urban Meyer's undefeated Utes would have completed the field composed entirely of teams without a loss—the only time that could've happened in the BCS era.


Controversies

The Mack Brown Campaign: In 2003, Texas finished No. 5 in the BCS standings, but was relegated to the Holiday Bowl. The Longhorns seemed to be headed to San Diego again in 2004 before coach Mack Brown did something about that.

With undefeated Utah poised to become the first BCS buster, there was only one BCS bowl slot available to a non-conference champion. Since the No. 4 team was guaranteed an at-large spot, the race was on between Texas and California.

The Golden Bears had a tenuous hold on the fourth spot beginning in October, with their only loss all season coming in a 23-17 heartbreaker to USC at the L.A. Coliseum when Aaron Rodgers couldn't get the ball into the end zone from the 9-yard line in the game's waning moments. Texas's only loss was a 12-0 defeat at the Cotton Bowl against the Sooners.

After Cal routed archrival Stanford in the Big Game, its season should've been over, but once again, a hurricane proved to be a Pac-10 team's undoing, as it had in 1998. The Bears' Sept. 23 game at Southern Mississippi was postponed because of Hurricane Ivan, and was rescheduled for Dec. 4.

Texas finished its schedule on Nov. 26 after beating rival Texas A&M. Brown immediately started an endless media campaign on behalf of his No. 5-ranked Longhorns. His tactics also made the Cal-Southern Miss matchup something of a referendum on the Bears, whose game was nationally televised on ESPN.

Perhaps affected by the pressure and expectations, the Bears did not play an impressive game, but still won, 26-16. While Cal coach Jeff Tedford thought his team had done what it needed to secure the program's first Rose Bowl berth since 1959, others weren't so sure.

The Bears' worst fears were realized when they fell from No. 4 to No. 5 in the final BCS standings, as Texas snatched the coveted Rose Bowl berth. Voter defection carried the day. In the AP poll, Cal's advantage over Texas shrank from 85 points to 62.

The real story, however, was the coaches poll. In the penultimate standings, Cal held a 48-point lead over Texas. In the one that counted, it finished ahead by a mere five points. In other words, no fewer than 20 coaches switched their placements of Texas and Cal. Even more telling was that four coaches voted Cal No. 7 and two voted them No. 8—after a Bears victory, and behind a Georgia team with two losses.

Predictably, the Pac-10 was furious and demanded that the coaches disclose their final ballots. The AFCA refused, however, and disputed suggestions that impropriety had taken place behind a cloak of secrecy. The Longhorns went on to win the Rose Bowl behind the electrifying performance of sophomore quarterback Vince Young while the dispirited Bears were routed by Texas Tech in the Holiday Bowl.

The Texas-California controversy had a long-lasting effect on the BCS standings. First, the AP poll refused to be included in the BCS standings after the 2004 season. Because all AP poll balloting is available to the public, some AP voters were harassed and threatened by fans who were unhappy with their decisions. The BCS had to scramble and invent the "Harris Interactive Poll" to replace the venerable and prestigious AP poll in the standings.

Second, to promote more transparency, the coaches reluctantly agreed to reveal their final regular-season balloting, beginning in 2005.

Through it all, Tedford took the high road. He didn't try to score an extra touchdown against Southern Miss in the game's final minutes to curry favor with the voters and never indulged in a war of words with Brown or anyone else. The final irony was that the AP poll's flip-flops alone would've put Texas ahead of Cal in the final standings, but the coaches ended up catching most of the heat because of their shenanigans.

2004 BCS Bowl Matchups

Bowl	Score	Attendance	TV Rating
Orange Bowl*	#1 USC 55, #2 Oklahoma 19	77,912	13.7
Rose Bowl	#4 Texas 38, #13 Michigan 37	93,468	12.4
Sugar Bowl	#3 Auburn 16, #8 Virginia Tech 13	77,349	9.5
Fiesta Bowl	#6 Utah 35, #21 Pittsburgh 7	73,519	7.4

BCS formula review: The BCS blew up its previous formula (BCS I) and started from scratch.

The BCS blew up its previous formula (BCS I) and started from scratch. The new formula (BCS II) comprised of only two parts—the human polls and computers. Strength of Schedule and Quality Win components were purged.

The human polls now accounted for two-thirds of the formula, with the AP poll (and later, Harris poll) and coaches polls each weighing one-third. Instead of using a team's actual ranking, the formula now called for the percentage of total votes received. This alteration actually created the deciding difference in the Texas-Cal controversy, as the old formula would've disregarded the vote-margin difference.

The computer ratings shrank further from seven to six as the New York Times bowed out. The new formula required strength of schedule to be part of each computer's calculations. The computer average counts for one-third of the formula, with the highest and lowest rating for each team discarded.

After replacing the AP with the Harris poll following the 2004 season, this formula has stayed intact through the end of BCS's existence.

Final analysis: The twin controversies engulfed the 2004 season, mitigated only somewhat by USC's impressive Orange Bowl win and "repeat" championship. But unlike the previous season, the BCS did not blow up the system and start from scratch again.

The nonchalant, near-shrug of a reaction actually, in the long term, saved the BCS. It's as if the BCS simply stated: "We're here to stay so deal with it."

It may have been because the BCS couldn't risk undergoing another wholesale change without completely destroying its already-tattered credibility, or it may have been because there just wasn't anything else to do short of going to a playoff system.

Either way, this steadfastness served the BCS well—for better or for worse. Despite some outcry in subsequent seasons, the public and media began to grudgingly accept the BCS for what it was and understand both its strengths and limitations.

The Guru's BlogPoll (Week 2)

The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot, with notes below:

BCS Guru Ballot - Week 2

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Oklahoma Sooners	--
2	LSU Tigers	--
3	Boise St. Broncos	--
4	Alabama Crimson Tide	--
5	Texas A&M Aggies	--
6	Stanford Cardinal	--
7	South Carolina Gamecocks	1
8	Nebraska Cornhuskers	-1
9	Florida St. Seminoles	1
10	Wisconsin Badgers	1
11	Ohio St. Buckeyes	-2
12	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	3
13	Oregon Ducks	-1
14	Virginia Tech Hokies	-1
15	West Virginia Mountaineers	-1
16	Arkansas Razorbacks	--
17	South Florida Bulls	4
18	Florida Gators	1
19	USC Trojans	3
20	Michigan Wolverines	--
21	Michigan St. Spartans	3
22	Auburn Tigers	--
23	Arizona St. Sun Devils	--
24	Houston Cougars	-1
25	California Golden Bears	--
Dropouts: Mississippi St. Bulldogs, Utah Utes, Georgia Bulldogs

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

* The Guru's ballot this week is fairly static, a reflection of the disease afflicting college football these days. The competitive nonconference games seem to be the phenomenon of years gone by, the void being filled by what Gene Murphy used to call the "Body Bag Games," big paydays for small schools so they could be slaughtered by big school in front of their overhydrated fans.

* The only game pitting two teams in the AP Top 25 this past weekend was No. 2 Alabama's visit to No. 23 Penn State. But even that was a stretch. Everybody knew that this was a mismatch and Penn State was grossly overrated. Two of the day's three most exciting affairs were conference games (Mississippi State at Auburn; Utah at USC) and the other was Notre Dame at Michigan ...

* Speaking of Michigan-Notre Dame, while the game was witnessed by the largest audience in college football history and had a classic finish, they don't mask the fact that these two programs (the two winningest in history by percentage) are mediocre outfits living off their brand names to sell hundreds of thousands of tickets. As one disgusted Irish poster noted, it was a glorified MAC matchup. But that was the "best" we got all weekend.

* The only way to deal with this scheduling malaise is expanding the BCS "playoff" to more than two teams, so one loss doesn't kill your chances of winning the national championship and that winning the conference still means something beyond a bowl berth. But until we have meaningful reform with the BCS, expect more of Florida State 62, Charleston Southern 10.

* We did learn something from the USC-Utah game: If you are a betting man, don't tear up your slip until you're absolutely, positively the final score is really the final score.

* New teams that made the ballot this week: Auburn, Arizona State and California.

* Conference-by-conference tally: SEC (6), Big Ten (5), Pac-12 (5), Big 12 (3), Big East (2), ACC (2), MWC (1), C-USA (1).

The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 12)

The Guru's ballot this week, destined for another mention for Mr. Xanax. But hey, this late in the season, with virtually no upsets, what do you expect? More below:

BCS Guru Ballot - Week 12

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Oregon Ducks	--
2	TCU Horned Frogs	--
3	Boise St. Broncos	--
4	Auburn Tigers	--
5	Stanford Cardinal	--
6	LSU Tigers	--
7	Wisconsin Badgers	--
8	Ohio St. Buckeyes	--
9	Nebraska Cornhuskers	1
10	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	1
11	Nevada Wolf Pack	1
12	Michigan St. Spartans	1
13	Alabama Crimson Tide	2
14	Arkansas Razorbacks	2
15	Missouri Tigers	3
16	Oklahoma Sooners	3
17	Virginia Tech Hokies	4
18	Utah Utes	-9
19	USC Trojans	4
20	South Carolina Gamecocks	5
21	Texas A&M Aggies	3
22	Northwestern Wildcats	--
23	Arizona Wildcats	-6
24	Iowa Hawkeyes	-10
25	N.C. State Wolfpack	--
Dropouts: Mississippi St. Bulldogs, San Diego St. Aztecs

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

* Frankly, I think it's quite laughable that voters in other polls (and probably this one as well) punished TCU for a close game against San Diego State? Have they seen the Aztecs play this season? Instead of lauding Brady Hoke's bunch for breaking through TCU's stellar defense, the Frogs were massacred in the polls. Of course, Utah stinking it up in South Bend didn't help, neither did Oregon State's unraveling.

* Still, the San Diego State game changed nothing in my mind. Every team has one of those close calls late in the season, when the pressure is on. Oregon barely escaped at Cal. Auburn win against Georgia wasn't assured until the fourth quarter (and don't let that final score deceive you). And I'll take the Aztecs over either Cal or Georgia in terms of the quality of the opponent as the computer rankings can attest.

* USC may be ineligible to play in a bowl this season, but the Trojans seem to be on a quest to consign as many Pac-10 teams to the same fate as they possibly can. They pretty much ruined Arizona's hopes of a decent bowl game, severely hurt Arizona State's chances to be bowl eligible, and Oregon State and UCLA may be toast as well after USC gets through them in the next couple of weeks. So all those teams hoping to pick up bowl berths left vacant by the Pac-10 must secretly be chanting Fight On!

* Other teams considered: Florida State, Miami (Fla.), San Diego State, Mississippi State, Hawaii.

Irish Put Hurt on TCU ... Sort Of

Lots of close calls, but no actual upsets, such is a fairly typical Saturday in November. With the stakes higher for the top teams, they tend to be tighter and more vulnerable. But at least in today's case, they all found a way to pull out victories.

Lots of TV pundits speculated that TCU's close victory would be costly to the Frogs in the BCS standings. That's largely nonsense. San Diego State is a good team and rated reasonably high in the computers. And since margin of victory is not factored in computer ratings, the 5-point win is as good as a 35-point win.

What hurt TCU most today didn't take place in Fort Worth, but a thousand miles away in South Bend, where Utah was annihilated by a heretofore mediocre Notre Dame team that had lost to Navy and Tulsa. The Frogs' 40-point victory over Utah last week was considered their signature win of the season, and now that will certainly be discounted by the voters in the polls.

And the Utes' loss also hurts TCU in the computers in this sense. Typically, late in the season, with most of the games being played in-conference, those games are usually a wash when it comes to computer ratings. But out of conference games matter more, as teams usually play only one team but not the other.

All that said, the top of this week's BCS standings should look remarkably similar to last week's, with only changes in the margins but not the placements. The Guru is projecting the top 10 to be exactly the same as last week, and frankly I do not ever remember this being the case in any of the five years that I have run projections.

So they are:

1. Oregon, 2. Auburn, 3. TCU, 4. Boise State, 5. LSU, 6. Stanford, 7. Wisconsin, 8. Nebraska, 9. Ohio State, 10. Oklahoma State, 11. Michigan State, 12. Alabama, 13. Oklahoma, 14. Arkansas, 15. Missouri.

The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 10)

This week's BlogPoll ballot, with comments below:

BCS Guru Ballot - Week 10

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Oregon Ducks	--
2	Boise St. Broncos	--
3	TCU Horned Frogs	--
4	Auburn Tigers	--
5	Utah Utes	1
6	Wisconsin Badgers	2
7	Stanford Cardinal	2
8	Nebraska Cornhuskers	4
9	Ohio St. Buckeyes	1
10	Missouri Tigers	-3
11	Oklahoma Sooners	--
12	Arizona Wildcats	2
13	Alabama Crimson Tide	--
14	Iowa Hawkeyes	4
15	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	2
16	LSU Tigers	--
17	Michigan St. Spartans	-12
18	Nevada Wolf Pack	1
19	South Carolina Gamecocks	1
20	Arkansas Razorbacks	1
21	Virginia Tech Hokies	1
22	Mississippi St. Bulldogs	2
23	San Diego St. Aztecs	--
24	Baylor Bears	--
25	Hawaii Warriors	--
Dropouts: Florida St. Seminoles, Miami Hurricanes, USC Trojans

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

* Nothing changes at the top. Oregon solidified its hold on No. 1 after an impressive conquest of USC. Boise State continues to hum along, as does TCU, with a showdown against unbeaten Utah coming up this weekend. Auburn still needs to prove that it can stop elite teams defensively - and it's a stretch to call LSU an elite team.

* Wisconsin and Stanford appear to be the best one-loss teams, resume-wise. Alabama may be No. 5 in some polls, but that's more of a product of legacy voting: The Tide are last year's champs, which should have nothing to do with this year. They're still No. 13 on my ballot, with a chance of moving up a bit if they can defeat LSU this weekend.

* San Diego State makes its first-ever appearance on my ballot. The Aztecs have made a dramatic turnaround under Brady Hoke. They also will have a chance to really become a nasty spoiler for the Mountain West in the BCS title/bowl races, with back-to-back games against TCU and Utah still to come.

* Other teams considered: Northwestern, Florida State, USC.

* P.S. Yeah, there is not a single Big East team on my ballot (or even being considered), and just one ACC team. Yet it's almost a lock that either Boise State or TCU will miss out on a BCS bowl game, while the likes of Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia Tech and N.C. State are guaranteed a spot if they just win their conference title. (You bet this will be a major post later this week.)

The 'Playoff' Starts Now

Michigan State and Missouri, two teams widely suspected as frauds, went down Saturday, clearing the way for the legitimate contenders for this year's playoff race.

Right ... there is no playoff, but the way the schedule is setting up for the next five weeks, more teams will be eliminated as we approach the final month of the college football season.

Only five unbeaten teams remain, and one will certainly go down next week as TCU visits Utah. The winner stays in the race for at least a BCS bowl berth, not to mention maybe a shot at the BCS title game. Alabama, the one-loss team best positioned to sneak into the title game picture, still has an Iron Bowl date with hated rival Auburn.

Auburn, though for now perhaps still No. 3 in the human polls, is virtually guaranteed to play in the BCS title game should it defeat 'Bama (and Georgia) and go on to win the SEC title. Though currently No. 3 in the human polls, expect the War Eagles to jump Boise State in those polls in the latter part of the season if they stay unbeaten.

Then there is Oregon, which also controls its own destiny after Saturday night's emphatic victory over a game USC team in the L.A. Coliseum. The Ducks will remain No. 1 in the polls and this week should vault past Auburn as the top team in the BCS standings. The scores will be close - mostly depending on how many voters decide to put Auburn ahead of Boise State this week - but those two teams will be well ahead of the Broncos and the rest of the pack.

This week's projected BCS standings:

1. Oregon, 2. Auburn, 3. Boise State, 4. TCU, 5. Utah, 6. Alabama, 7. Oklahoma, 8. Wisconsin, 9. Nebraska, 10. LSU, 11. Ohio State, 12. Missouri, 13. Stanford, 14. Michigan State, 15. Arizona.

The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 6)

The Guru's Week 6 BlogPoll, with notes below:

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Alabama	2
2	Florida	1
3	Boise State	1
4	Texas	2
5	Virginia Tech	2
6	USC
7	Oregon	1
8	Ohio State	1
9	Miami (Florida)	1
10	LSU	5
11	Iowa	4
12	Cincinnati	1
13	South Florida	1
14	TCU
15	Georgia Tech	2
16	Brigham Young
17	Penn State	1
18	Kansas	2
19	South Carolina	5
20	Nebraska
21	Auburn	8
22	West Virginia
23	Oklahoma
24	Oklahoma State
25	Utah
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Missouri (#19), Wisconsin (#21), Stanford (#23), Michigan (#25).

* There's major reshuffling at the top of my ballot. With teams having played about half of their schedules, their relative strengths are becoming more apparent. Based on whom they have played, and how they have won, there is little doubt in my mind that the Alabama Crimson Tide are the best team in college football right now.

* Florida drops to No. 2 because, against the best team they'll face all regular season, the Gators were less than impressive. And LSU was over-ranked in the first place - it easily could've been a two-loss team coming into the game. Alabama and Florida will sort this out anyway if they both remain unbeaten, in the SEC championship game.

* Among the top four unbeaten squads, Texas is decidedly the least impressive. Against vastly inferior competition, the Horns once again trailed going into halftime. Meanwhile, among teams with one loss, Virginia Tech has had the strongest wins and its lone loss was against Alabama in a hard-fought game.

* Only nine teams remain undefeated. Kansas is by far the most suspect, barely squeaking by Iowa State. I am of the belief that entering into November, we'll only have about 3-4 unbeaten teams left.

* Oklahoma gets back in the ballot despite having two losses. Frankly, with a bunch of one-loss teams that have played far inferior competition, the Sooners deserve to be ranked ahead of them. Utah gets back into the top 25 because I deemed the Utes as the best of the rest 1-loss lot vying for the last spot on my ballot.