BCS Review Series: 2007, LSU Goes 'Undefeated in Regulation'

Part 10 of a series: Over the next few weeks, I will be reviewing each of the 16 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. Here is a look back at who got lucky, who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear throughout December and January.

Part 1: 1998, A New Beginning for College Football

Part 2: 1999, FSU Ends Michael Vick's Quest for Perfection

Part 3: 2000, FSU-Miami Sows Seeds of Controversy

Part 4: 2001, Nebraska Fiasco Rocks College Football

Part 5: 2002, Controversy On-Field Mars Perfect Ending

Part 6: 2003, Nightmare of Split National Championship

Part 7: 2004, Unbeaten Auburn Left Out in the Cold

Part 8: 2005, Perfect Season Ends With Epic at Rose Bowl

Part 9: 2006, Dawn of SEC's Reign in College Football

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In the 16-year existence of the BCS, there was never a season quite like 2007. It had a fitting end, too, with the Mad Hatter coming out on top in the wackiest finish of all.

It began with the biggest upset victory in perhaps college football history, with I-AA Appalachian State blocking a last-second field goal to stun No. 5 Michigan at the Big House. It would turn out to be not even the biggest upset of the season, and "As the Wolverine Turns" became a soap opera that enraptured the college football world for all of 2007.

Coming off a 1-11 season and now under upstart new coach Jim Harbaugh, Stanford pulled off the even bigger upset when it shocked Pete Carroll's five-time defending Pac-10 champion USC at the L.A. Coliseum, 24-23. In what would become the "What's-Your-Deal-Bowl" that followed the coaches right out of the college ranks to the NFL, a new rivalry was born.

This was the season that both South Florida and Boston College occupied the No. 2 spot in the official BCS standings. The month of November had such a slew of upsets that the same two teams never made it to the top of the BCS standings. In the final two weeks of the season, both of the top-two teams lost both weeks.

It really got going in the penultimate weekend of the season, when No. 1 LSU lost to Arkansas in triple overtime and No. 2 Kansas lost to Missouri in the Border War at Arrowhead Stadium. The twin upsets put Mizzou and West Virginia on top of the BCS standings, but things were far from settled as both teams still had games to play in the final week.

Second-ranked West Virginia appeared to be a lock, though, facing a 4-7 Pitt team at home in the Backyard Brawl. Rich Rodriguez's Mountaineers, save for an early-season hiccup against South Florida, had rolled through the Big East with relative ease, and the school's first BCS title game appeared in sight. A long-term extension for the native-son coach who had a true rags-to-riches story also was on the table, waiting to be signed.

No. 1 Missouri had a tougher task, facing Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game. Should the Tigers falter, third-ranked Ohio State would be ready to step in to face West Virginia for the BCS title.

The Buckeyes were ranked No. 1 in the beginning of November but seemingly fell out of contention after an upset loss to Illinois. Ohio State now had a chance to backdoor its way into a second consecutive BCS title game appearance after beating Michigan for the Big Ten title.

Ah, Michigan. As it turned out, the Wolverines were far from done even after that upset loss to Appy State and then getting destroyed by Oregon the following week. Michigan reeled off eight wins in a row and would have gotten a Rose Bowl berth with a win over Ohio State.

But Michigan was also looking for a coach, as Lloyd Carr was stepping down after 13 years at the helm. The guy it wanted was "Michigan Man" Les Miles, who had played for and coached under Bo Schembechler. Since LSU appeared to be out of contention for the national championship chase, the timing seemed right.

Merely hours before LSU was to play Tennessee in the SEC title game, ESPN's Kirk Herbstreit floated out the news that Michigan had a done deal with Miles. This report prompted a bizarre retort from the Mad Hatter, who was ready to coach his "damn strong football team" and wished everyone a "great day" in a one-minute virtuoso performance:

LSU went on to beat the Vols, 31-20, but not before West Virginia suffered one of the biggest choke jobs in college football history in a 13-9 loss to Pitt. Miles then implored the voters to get his Tigers to the BCS Championship Game, noting his team was "undefeated in regulation."



The rhetoric worked. After No. 1 Mizzou's loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game, LSU vaulted from No. 7 to No. 2 in the final BCS standings, which earned the Tigers a date with Ohio State in the BCS Championship Game. Miles opted not to go to Michigan, instead coaching LSU to its second BCS title with a rout of Ohio State in New Orleans.

Michigan then decided to hire the guy who didn't get to the championship game. After a clandestine meeting in Toledo with the Michigan brass, RichRod became the surprise choice in Ann Arbor—and the rest, as they say, became John U. Bacon's bestseller Three and Out. Lloyd Carr delivered his own parting shot, beating Urban Meyer and Heisman winner Tim Tebow in the Capital One Bowl to cap a comically strange season.

Final BCS Standings: 1. Ohio State, 2. LSU, 3. Virginia Tech, 4. Oklahoma, 5. Georgia.

Likely four-team playoff: Ohio State vs. Oklahoma; LSU vs. Virginia Tech.

All four teams won their respective conferences, though No. 7 USC and No. 9 West Virginia probably both had a claim, too, as every major champion conference champion other than Ohio State had two losses. And with the benefit of hindsight, USC and WVU would have been better choices than either OU or Va. Tech.


Controversies

Missouri Snub: Despite being ranked No. 1 in the penultimate BCS standings and having won its division, No. 6 Mizzou was denied a BCS bowl berth when the Orange Bowl opted to take No. 8 Kansas, whose lone loss of the season was to the Tigers. Ostensibly, that KU would travel better was given as the reason. Outraged Mizzou fans carried a grudge against the Big 12 for the snub and later would cite it as one of the reasons why the school left for the SEC.

This issue would plague the BCS bowls throughout the eight-year existence of the double-host system, as the team that lost the conference championship game would be routinely passed over in favor of a team that didn't even make it to the title game.

Hawaii Flop: June Jones' Warriors coasted through a soft schedule that included two games against I-AA opponents and three against teams that won either one or two games. They finished 12-0 and ranked No. 10 in the BCS standings, earning a trip to the Sugar Bowl to face Georgia.

In one of the worst BCS bowl performances, Hawaii was pummeled in a 41-10 loss, and the final score wasn't any worse only because Georgia took its foot off the gas in the second half. The game prompted calls to revise and toughen qualifying standards for non-AQ conference teams, but the BCS wisely resisted the urge.

2007 BCS Bowl Matchups

Bowl	Score	Attendance	TV Rating
BCS Champ*	No. 2 LSU 38, No. 1 Ohio St. 24	79,651	14.4
Rose Bowl	No. 7 USC 49, No. 13 Illinois 17	93,923	11.1
Fiesta Bowl	No. 9 WVU 48, No. 4 Oklahoma 28	70,016	7.7
Orange Bowl	No. 8 Kansas 24, No. 3 Va. Tech 21	74,111	7.4
Sugar Bowl	No. 5 Georgia 41, No. 10 Hawaii 10	74,383	7.0

Final analysis: In the first and only time in BCS' 16-year history, a two-loss team played in (and won) the BCS Championship Game. And it was the beginning of the SEC's ascendancy to the top of the BCS, in terms of both perception and performance.

Why was LSU picked ahead of four other two-loss major conference champions despite having just lost a game in the penultimate week of the regular season?

Les Miles' clever "undefeated in regulation" campaign—conjured up by his wife Kathy, actually—certainly worked to LSU's advantage. But the voters also started to buy into the superiority of the SEC argument, divining that the Tigers' two losses were more forgivable than the ones suffered by Oklahoma and USC—not to mention West Virginia and Virginia Tech, which did lose to LSU head-to-head.

The SEC ended up winning its second consecutive BCS title with a second straight blowout of Ohio State. Its juggernaut was only growing in strength, both on and off the field.

The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 7)

The Guru's BlogPoll ballot, with notes below:

BCS Guru Ballot - Week 7

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Alabama Crimson Tide	--
2	Oregon Ducks	--
3	Kansas St. Wildcats	--
4	Florida Gators	2
5	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	2
6	Oregon St. Beavers	5
7	Oklahoma Sooners	6
8	LSU Tigers	6
9	South Carolina Gamecocks	-5
10	USC Trojans	-1
11	Mississippi St. Bulldogs	1
12	Ohio St. Buckeyes	-2
13	Texas A&M Aggies	11
14	Texas Tech Red Raiders	New
15	Georgia Bulldogs	--
16	Florida St. Seminoles	--
17	West Virginia Mountaineers	-12
18	Clemson Tigers	-1
19	Michigan Wolverines	--
20	Stanford Cardinal	-12
21	Boise St. Broncos	-1
22	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	-4
23	TCU Horned Frogs	--
24	Nevada Wolf Pack	New
25	Ohio Bobcats	--
Dropouts: Texas Longhorns, Iowa St. Cyclones

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings

* I think we finally have some clarity in terms of where teams are and what their relative strengths might be after several weeks of conference play. This is an age-old rant: That's why preseason polls are bunk and anyone who slavishly adheres to his preseason poll as a guiding light is either not very smart or very lazy.

*West Virginia and its non-violent defensive philosophy is finally exposed on a day when Geno Smith couldn't chuck the ball around for 5,000 yards and 100 TDs. The Mountaineers may drop like a rock after next week's visit by K-State, which does not take kindly to the other teams moving the ball up and down the field.

* We finally give Texas Tech its proper due, though this may proved to be short-lived after next week's game against TCU. The same goes for the Aggies, who really did dominate a pretty fair Louisiana Tech team until the holding on to dear life at the end.

* Conference-by-conference tally: SEC (7), Big 12 (5), Pac-12 (4), Big Ten (2), ACC (2), MWC (2), MAC (1), WAC (1), Independent (1).

The Lazarus-Like Resurrection of Big 12

About two years ago, the Big 12 was on its death bed.

The conference was on the operating table, waiting for a priest to read its last rites and a coroner to dissect its cause of death. Gored by a a Longhorn, maybe. Excessive bleeding of (Big) Red blood cells, another possibility.

But look at the Big 12 now. It's not only alive and well, it's the "it" conference, the talk of the college football world. More than half of its teams (six) are ranked in the top 20 of the latest simulated BCS standings. Its two new acquisitions are a combined 8-0 and one of them boasts the undisputed frontrunner for this year's Heisman Trophy.

If it weren't for an inexplicably late collapse by Oklahoma State, the Big 12 would've had a representative in last year's BCS title game. This year, five teams are currently unbeaten as the conference season gets under way to decide who'll be left standing and possibly finally sending someone to challenge Alabama.

To be sure, it will be a daunting task for whomever emerges as the Big 12 champion. For one, the Big 12 is now the only AQ conference to play a true round-robin schedule with nine conference games. There will be at most one undefeated team but more likely, none. And for another, because the misnomered Big 12 has only 10 teams and no conference championship game, a one-loss conference champion is unlikely to get a reprieve, as it was shown last year with the Cowboys.

Of the five unbeaten Big 12 teams - plus Oklahoma, which already lost to Kansas State - the team with the best potential to get to the national championship game is West Virginia, with Heisman favorite Geno Smith having just completed an otherworldly performance.

(FULL ARTICLE @ SB NATION)

West Virginia's Big(-12) Moment Has Arrived

West Virginia's big moment has finally arrived.

The Mountaineers' first Big 12 appearance - against Baylor on Saturday (noon ET, FX) - has much more significance than just their inaugural game in a new conference. It's a watershed event for a state that has been struggling for relevance since it separated from Virginia in the midst of Civil War in 1863.
That's right, WVU in the Big 12 is the biggest thing in West Virginia since gaining statehood.

"It's finally here," Mountaineers coach Dana Holgorsen said during a conference call this week. "There's a lot of anticipation, not only in the state of West Virginia, but across the country. So there will be a lot of eyes on us."

Don't get us wrong, the Mountaineers certainly have had their share of athletic accomplishments. Back in 1960, a skinny kid from Chelyan led WVU to the brink of an NCAA basketball title, losing to Cal by a single point. He went on to become the logo of the NBA. The Mountaineers football team also had its shot at a national title as well, but that Major Harris-led 1988 squad fell to Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl.

But for most of its history, West Virginia lived in obscurity. Nestled deep in the Appalachian Mountains, the state made its living off hundreds of coal mines. It's a tough and dirty existence, and many of its famous sons fled whenever they got the chance (think Rodriguez, Rich). R-E-S-P-E-C-T was hard to come by.

Getting into the Big 12, though, is a game changer for West Virginia. While the reconstituted Big 12 isn't what it was in the late '90s, it's still a potent brand, backed by Texas and Oklahoma and firmly in the club of college football's haves. For West Virginia, getting on with the Big 12 as its former conference Big East disintegrated, was nothing short of a coup.

And West Virginia is entering the Big 12 at an ideal time. Both of the conference's traditional flag-bearers - UT and OU - are not what they once were. The conference's two upstarts, Oklahoma State and Baylor, were coming off great seasons but lost their respective quarterbacks and will be rebuilding. The Mountaineers, on the other hand, are loaded and ready to take their new league by storm.

Led by quarterback Geno Smith - a bona fide Heisman contender and maybe even the front runner - West Virginia has won its last seven games, including a 70-point outburst against Clemson in the Orange Bowl that foreshadowed its potency this season. The Mountaineers have a legitimate chance to win the Big 12 in their inaugural season and at No. 10 in the simulated BCS standings, can play their way into the BCS championship game.

With nine conference games remaining on their slate, the Mountaineers will get a steady boost in the computer rankings as long as they keep winning. While they have some treacherous road games (Texas and Oklahoma State), they'll face their most difficult opponents (Oklahoma, TCU and Kansas State) at home.

To be sure, a trip to Morgantown will be a daunting challenge for WVU's Big 12 foes, who all hail from the plains of the Midwest and Southwest. Add the rabid nature of Mountaineers fans, who are finally gaining their long lust-after time in the spotlight, the setting at Mountaineer Field will seem surreal.

The Baylor Bears will be the first ones to find out. Unfortunately for them, while RG3 might be on the sideline for Saturday's game, he won't be able to help.

Other games with BCS implications:

(FULL ARTICLE @ SB NATION)

Agents of Change

Change is not always good and not all changes are equal.

Just because 15 percent of Division I-A teams hired new coaches, it doesn't mean they'll all enjoy success in due time. In fact, some programs are doomed to fail (again) while others are investing in a leap of faith in unfamiliar faces.

Of 120 Division I-A schools, 18 will begin the 2008 season with a different leading man from the ones they started 2007. We'll look these new hires, assess their prospects, and of course, list them according to the grades they received, from the best to worst:

SOUTHERN METHODIST -- June Jones > Phil Bennett: For a moribund program that's not recovered from being the only recipient of the NCAA death penalty, this was quite a coup. Its search process had been futile and rightfully ridiculed, yet SMU's patience paid off at the end. Jones might not re-enact the glory days of Pony Express, but given the school's location and resources, the Mustangs have the potential to be a non-BCS powerhouse. A+

MISSISSIPPI -- Houston Nutt > Ed Orgeron: Firing Coach O wasn't that hard of a decision -- the former USC assistant was a spectacular flop. Getting Nutt, though, makes it all the better for Ole Miss. Here's a very successful coach for various reasons got run out of Arkansas, now he'll have a chance to restore a floundering Rebels program, perhaps at the expense of his alma mater. A

NEBRASKA -- Bo Pelini > Bill Callahan: If there was ever a case of addition by subtraction, this was it. Nebraska earns a good grade by simply getting rid of Callahan, who was ill-suited for the job from Day One. Hiring the defensive coordinator of BCS champion LSU makes it even better. The days of the Black Skirts giving up 70 points per game are probably numbered. A

MICHIGAN -- Rich Rodriguez > Lloyd Carr: This hire would've probably scored better if not for the post-hiring grudge match between West Virginia and Rodriguez's camp. Michigan fumbled the chance to get LSU's Les Miles, yet at the end it ended up with the best young coach in the country. Now if the Wolverines can convince Terrelle Pryor to come to Ann Arbor ... look out! A-

UCLA -- Rick Neuheisel > Karl Dorrell: Make no mistake, this was a great hire. Neuheisel, an alum who cut his coaching teeth under former Bruins head man Terry Donahue, is the only one UCLA could've hired that might put a little scare in the crosstown Trojan Empire. He's already made great choices in coordinators with the retention of DeWayne Walker and addition of Norm Chow. Don't worry about all the NCAA stuff, that's ancient history. A-

GEORGIA TECH -- Paul Johnson > Chan Gailey: There was really nothing left for Johnson to accomplish at Navy, really. Now he'll find out whether a variation of his option attack can work in a BCS conference. Johnson knows the area, having been the head coach at Georgia Southern before joining the Naval Academy. The question is, can he get the right kind of athletes to run his system. B+

NORTHERN ILLINOIS -- Jerry Kill > Joe Novak: Northern Illinois raided its in-state neighbor for this hire. Kill moves up literally (from Southern Illinois) and figuratively (from I-AA) to a program that's a powerhouse in MAC. Before going 2-10 in 2007, Novak had led the Huskies to seven straight winning seasons and two bowl appearances. B+

ARKANSAS -- Bobby Petrino > Houston Nutt: If you can somehow separate Petrino the coach from Petrino the man, this would've been a grade A hire. Unfortunately, Petrino came with so much baggage that it must be considered. How long will it take before he casts a wandering eye elsewhere? At the end of the 2008 season, in the middle of the 2008 season? And can you really take his word for anything? History says no. B

BAYLOR -- Art Briles > Guy Morriss: Baylor was the 12th and last entry into the Big 12, and often times it really doesn't act/play like a BCS conference team. Briles will have to work near-miracles to turn around the fortunes of Baylor, which has had 12 straight losing seasons. The situation is so dire that the school's most illustrious alum, Mike Singletary, turned down the job. B

HOUSTON -- Kevin Sumlin > Art Briles: Of all the off-season new hires, the Cougars are the only one who landed a black coach, the eighth among 120 Division I-A teams. Sumlin earned valuable experience under the tutelage of Bob Stoops at Oklahoma and this past season helped develop freshman quarterback Sam Bradford. Houston, given its location in a recruit-rich area, has the potential to become a non-BCS powerhouse, much like SMU. B

NAVY -- Ken Niumatalolo > Paul Johnson: The Naval Academy was probably pretty well prepared for Johnson's eventual departure -- for the past 2-3 years it was just a matter of when. Niumatalolo is very familiar with the system and is well regarded by his players, and he's aware Johnson set the bar very high. He also becomes the first Division I-A coach of Samoan descent. B

TEXAS A&M -- Mike Sherman > Dennis Franchione: A former pro coach returning to the college ranks, hmmm, we've heard this before. But Sherman has had a long association with A&M, including a two-part, seven-year stint as an assistant for R.C. Slocum. Franchione did most everything wrong in the eyes of the Aggies, but he did manage to beat Texas a few times. Sherman will have to be even better than that. B

WASHINGTON STATE -- Paul Wulff > Bill Doba: WSU toyed around with the idea of luring back former coach Mike Price, but decided on a youth movement, hiring alum Wulff away from Eastern Washington. The Cougars are having an increasingly tough time competing in the Pac-10 as salaries for coaches escalated over the past 10 years. With a base package at around $500,000, Wulff will be the lowest paid head coach in the conference. B-

DUKE -- David Cutcliff > Ted Roof: Coach K almost openly advocated disbanding of the football team. And he had a good point: If Duke isn't trying to be the best, why bother? The administration decided not to scrap the program and hired Cutcliff away from Tennessee. He did well as the head coach at Ole Miss and did not get a fair shake there (the Rebels got what they deserved in Orgeron). But the Duke job has proved a career killer for everyone not named Steve Spurrier. C+

WEST VIRGINIA -- Bill Stewart > Rich Rodriguez: Hiring an interim coach based on a knee-jerk reaction is never a good idea, and this fits the bill to a T. WVU was busy dumping on Rodriguez and sleepwalking through the process of hiring his replacement. Stewart did well in retaining defensive coordinator Jeff Casteel, otherwise the situation would've been an unmitigated disaster. Rest assured the Mountaineers' days as a BCS powerhouse are numbered. C+

COLORADO STATE -- Steve Fairchild > Sunny Lubick: After being away from the college game for seven years, the former CSU quarterback returns to coach his alma mater. Lubick had built a respectable program in Fort Collins over the past 15 seasons, though over the last four seasons the Rams have been in decline, culminating in his firing at the end of a 3-9 campaign. Fairchild inherits an unstable situation with not a lot to work with. C

SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI -- Larry Fedora > Jeff Bower: Of all the post-season firings/involuntary resignations, this one takes the cake. Just what exactly did Bower do wrong? Was it the 14 consecutive winning seasons? Was it the 10 bowl appearances in the last 11? Well, it must be that the Golden Eagles haven't won a national championship! Talk about not realizing that you have a good thing going. And this takes nothing away from Fedora, who may prove himself to be a fine coach. C-

HAWAI'I -- Greg McMackin > June Jones: No offense to McMackin, because someone has to be named coach, but just how did Hawai'i let Jones get away? This guy left the NFL to come to one of the most decrepit Division I-A programs in all of college football. Before Jones took over, the Rainbows were 0-12. When he left, the Warriors were 12-1 with a BCS bowl berth. But in the meantime, almost nothing has changed with UH's broken down facilities. No wonder AD Herman Frazier got canned the very next day. F

West Virginia: Get a Life!

Dear West Virginia University:

I understand how painful it is to lose someone you love, to somebody better. But that's life. It's really unhealthy for you to continue to act like this: part unhinged lunatic, part conniving slimebag.

So my advice to you is: Stop it!

Is it really necessary for you to keep smearing the good name of Rich Rodriguez? After what he's done for you over the past seven years? Before he arrived, your school is as well known as Trinity College and University (and probably just as prestigious). Now the football program is a powerhouse; and by extension, people are beginning to know where you're located -- even Miss Teen South Carolina can find Morgantown on a map!

I know you're bitter and angry. But please, think about this for a second. Can you really blame him?

The University of Michigan is one of the finest research universities in the world. We produce statesmen, Nobel laureates, scientists, poets, playwrights, astronauts and Tom Brady. West Virginia University, has, well, Barney Fife.

Rodriguez is actually one of your very distinguished alumnus. He's one of your own. Someday he'll retire. And wouldn't you want to brag that he's a favorite son who's done good away from home?

But no, you must destroy him like a jilted lover. OK, so you sue him pre-emptively for fear of him skipping out on that $4 million buyout. It's very small-minded and small-time. But fine, have it your way.

That wasn't enough, though. You have to drag his name through mud. And of course, you can count on Pravda, uh, Charleston Daily Mail, to serve as your mouthpiece.

First, it was that he destroyed ALL the files on all the players. Gosh, at first we were pretty panicked because we didn't know if y'all actually had computers there. But after thinking it over, this was beyond absurd. He got rid of all the junk paperwork left in his old office. This is news?

Then, it was that he MADE PHONE CALLS! From YOUR PHONE! And you tried to insinuate that this was an NCAA violation! If you have a compliance office down there (no sure thing, but we'll give you the benefit of the doubt), you'll know that phone calls are allowed during "dead periods." And if those three calls costs you $1.25, I'll mail you a check. The one with the big Block M on the envelope. It's in the mail.

What am I gonna read in the Daily Mail tomorrow? Rodriguez took two rolls of toilet paper from his bathroom? Paper clips? Post-Its?

The way this is going, you'd better hope that Bill Stewart will stay forever. Because when he goes 4-8 his third season and you want to get rid of him, the good prospects out there will be hesitant. They'll remember how you did Rodriguez and probably want to stay away from the hillbillies with pitchforks.

I know, you're also mad at us and try to get even. I know, we already took your basketball coach and you're tired of being bitch-slapped again. This is your juvenile attempt to make us look bad because you're upset.

But that's life. Life is about a lot of things, one of them is knowing your place. All of us aspire to be great. But only some of us are important and special. Some of us end up meter maids. Sometimes you just have to accept that you're Michigan State. It sucks, but deal with it.

In closing, I just want to offer you this -- we won't take any more of your coaches, if you leave our coach alone.

Sorry to be so condescending. We can't help it. We are Michigan. You're not.



Sincerely,


Mary Sue Coleman
President
University of Michigan

Dog Days of 2007

To classify 2007 as a season of upsets is like calling Operation Barbarossa a border skirmish. The year that began with Appalachian State's victory at the Big House turned out to be the gift that kept on giving, with nary a weekend without a mind-blowing victory by an underdog.

In the final analysis (so far), because of the abundance of unexpected outcomes, some games in retrospect hardly seemed to surprise any more. For instance, Syracuse's 38-35 win over Louisville was considered a huge upset. At the time. After the Cardinals finished 6-6 and missed out on a bowl game? Not so much.

With the regular season complete and few bowls featuring mismatched teams (what, Notre Dame isn't playing?), it seems safe to call out our 10 biggest upsets of the season, each with significant consequences:

1. Stanford 24, USC 23: Ultimately, the Trojans' inability to stop Stanford on two fourth-down plays late in the game cost them a shot at another national championship. Never mind that USC was playing with an injured quarterback -- it was playing at home as a 41-point favorite. Although the Trojans rallied to win their sixth straight Pac-10 title and a record sixth BCS bowl berth, now they must wonder what it might've been.

2. Pittsburgh 13, West Virginia 9: Needing only a victory at home over a 28-point underdog, the Mountaineers absolutely laid an egg against a ferocious Pitt defense. Like USC, an injured starting quarterback hurt the cause. But the ripple effect was more damaging -- within two weeks, WVU's program would be in complete turmoil after Rich Rodriguez bolted to Michigan.

3. Appalachian State 34, Michigan 32: When this took place, it was upset of the century, or all-time, so thought the Guru. Oops, shoulda waited for the season to get finished. Still, this shocker set the tone for the season. While Appalachian State went on to claim its third consecutive I-AA title, the winningest program in all of football went on to make its first coaching hire in 40 years.

4. Oklahoma 27, Colorado 24: Like USC and West Virginia, this shocking loss cost the Sooners a likely berth in the BCS title game. While OU's loss to Texas Tech late in the season served as the coup de grace, its national championship hopes never regained traction after a late collapse against a mediocre Colorado team.

5. Wisconsin-White Water 31, Mount Union 21: Say what, you ask? OK, it might be Division III, but Mount Union is the absolute juggernaut in this league. The Purple Raiders had won 37 consecutive games prior to the D-III championship game, having beaten White Water in each of the previous two title games. But Mount Union, which averaged more than 54 points in the playoffs, lost three fumbles and blew their shot at a three-peat.

6. Louisiana-Monroe 21, Alabama 14: Nick Saban was fortunate that by the time this happened, most fans were so dizzy with upsets that it flew under the radar. But we cannot overlook the fact that Saban, at $4 million a year, is the highest paid coach in college football. And Charlie Weatherbie, the former Navy coach now at Monroe, is among the lowest paid at $130,000. No poetic justice though -- 6-6 'Bama went to a bowl while 6-6 Monroe stayed home.

7. Navy 46, Notre Dame 44 (3 OT): OK, the Mids finished 8-5 and played in a bowl, the Irish were a terrible 3-9, but this was still a monumental upset. Navy snapped a 43-year losing streak to Notre Dame, dating back when Roger Staubach was its quarterback. We know this is all Ty Willingham's fault, but it's really just Charlie Weis scheming to avoid another bowl loss and haul in a top recruiting class.

8. Illinois 28, Ohio State 21: Clearly looking ahead to its rivalry game against Michigan the following week, Ohio State forgot to take care of business at home against a two-touchdown underdog. The way this game ended was the most shocking: clinging to a 7-point lead, Illinois got a first down on fourth-and-1 in its own territory and ran out the final eight minutes of the game.

9. Western Michigan 28, Iowa 19: Needing just a home win against a 3-7 team to assure a bowl berth, the Hawkeyes fell behind 19-0 and never recovered. Iowa's Kirk Ferentz, the highest-paid coach in the Big Ten and once coveted by both pro and college teams, saw his star dim further as his 6-6 team failed to land a bowl bid.

10. Arkansas 50, LSU 48 (3 OT): This upset would've meant more had LSU not miraculously land in the BCS title game just a week later. Ranked No. 1 and playing at home, the Tigers' normally stout defense was gashed by Darren McFadden for 206 yards that nearly earned him the Heisman Trophy. And the loss nearly landed LSU's Les Miles a new job at his alma mater Michigan.

An Anti-Climactic End, Perhaps?

Call it a hunch. But the 2007 season, one spectacularly long on upsets and short on dominant teams, might end with sort of a whimper. Maybe everything will fall in place according to form on Saturday and thus giving us one hell of a boring bowl season.

If West Virginia defeats Pittsburgh, as widely expected, then there won't be much drama as to the BCS bowl lineup. The Mountaineers will play either Missouri or Ohio State, with Georgia, Kansas, USC, Arizona State, Hawai'i and champions of the SEC and ACC expected to earn BCS bowl bids.

A few wild cards are still out there: What if both Missouri and West Virginia lose? What if UCLA beats USC and wins the Pac-10? What if Hawai'i loses to Washington? A total of 16 teams are still in contention to earn one of the 10 BCS bowl bids. Some control their own destiny, some are only at the mercy of the bowl committees.

Here's the outlook for these 16 teams (The Rooting Guide):

1. Missouri (11-1)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Oklahoma (Big XII championship game)
National title scenario: Missouri is headed to the BCS title game with a win.
BCS bowl scenario: It's an all-or-nothing deal. A loss will drop the Tigers to perhaps a Cotton Bowl berth.

2. West Virginia (10-1)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Pittsburgh
National title scenario: West Virginia is headed to the BCS title game with a win.
BCS bowl scenario: Already clinched Big East title; a loss will drop the Mountaineers to either the Fiesta Bowl or Orange Bowl.

3. Ohio State (11-1)
Remaining game: Regular season complete
National title scenario: Ohio State is a loss by either Missouri or West Virginia away from a second consecutive BCS title game appearance, and third overall.
BCS bowl scenario: Ohio State has already a Rose Bowl berth in hand.

4. Georgia (10-2)
Remaining game: Regular season complete
National title scenario: It's a long, long shot. The Dawgs need both Missouri and West Virginia to lose and hope neither Virginia Tech nor LSU jumps them. There will be huge shifts in the polls to prevent UGA from being ranked higher than an SEC-winning LSU.
BCS bowl scenario: Georgia has a lock on a BCS berth, by virtue of being in the No. 4 spot. Most likely it'll be the Orange Bowl, but the Rose Bowl is not out of the question.

5. Kansas (11-1)
Remaining game: Regular season complete
National title scenario: An even-longer shot than Georgia, just about no shot at all.
BCS bowl scenario: Kansas is headed to the desert for the Fiesta Bowl against Arizona State or maybe even the Rose Bowl.

6. Virginia Tech (10-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Boston College (ACC championship game)
National title scenario: Slim. VaTech needs Missouri and West Virginia to lose and then hope it can jump Georgia and Kansas and not get jumped by LSU.
BCS bowl prospect: A victory clinches an Orange Bowl berth. A loss most likely will knock the Hokies out of BCS bowl contention.

7. LSU (10-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Tennessee (SEC championship game)
National title scenario: Very slim, but still there. If Missouri and West Virginia both lose, LSU has the best chance of moving up to No. 2 and earn a date with Ohio State.
BCS bowl scenario: A win guarantees a Sugar Bowl berth. A loss will drop the Tigers out of a BCS bowl altogether.

8. USC (9-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. UCLA
BCS bowl scenario: A victory means a lot for the Trojans -- sweet revenge; a fourth Rose Bowl appearance in five years; sixth-straight BCS bowl appearance, a record; and an opportunity to finish in the Top 4 in the sixth straight year, another record. A loss might mean a trip to El Paso.

9. Oklahoma (10-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Missouri (Big XII championship game)
BCS bowl scenario: Win, it's back to the Fiesta Bowl, opposing either Kansas or Arizona State. A loss means perhaps a Cotton Bowl berth.

11. Boston College (10-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Virginia Tech (ACC championship game)
BCS bowl scenario: A victory over the Hokies will give the Eagles an Orange Bowl berth.

12. Hawai'i (11-0)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Washington
BCS bowl scenario: In all likelihood, a win will get the Warriors a trip to the Sugar Bowl. To prevent any possible backroom dealing, a Boston College loss to Virginia Tech will help things greatly.

13. Arizona State (9-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Arizona
BCS bowl scenario: The Sun Devils will earn a Rose Bowl berth with a win and a USC loss. If the Trojans win, ASU probably will still get a Fiesta Bowl berth with a victory over the Wildcats. One potential scenario that might spoil it for the Sun Devils: Should the Rose Bowl choose Illinois, the Fiesta Bowl might opt for Kansas vs. Oklahoma if the Sooners win the Big XII title, thus shutting out hometown team ASU.

14. Tennessee (9-3)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. LSU (SEC championship game)
BCS bowl scenario: A victory will get the Volunteers a Sugar Bowl berth, an unlikely outcome after their bad start in the regular season.

15. Illinois (9-3)
Remaining game: Regular season complete
BCS bowl scenario: The Illini-to-Rose-Bowl talk is dying a quick death in light of Fiesta Bowl's intention to take Kansas, even in the event of Oklahoma beating Missouri for the Big XII title. The Rose Bowl would like to preempt that by taking the only other 1-loss team available if it loses Ohio State to the BCS title game. The Illini most likely are headed to the CapitalOne Bowl.

19. BYU (9-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 at San Diego State
BCS bowl scenario: The Cougars are only still in this thing because of the possibility of UCLA winning the Pac-10. BYU would need the Bruins to upset USC, Arizona to upset Arizona State and Hawai'i to lose to Washington -- and rise to at least No. 16 in the BCS standings. Well, it's just not gonna happen.

42. UCLA (6-5)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 at USC
BCS bowl scenario: Believe it or not, the Bruins don't need that much help to make it to the Rose Bowl. A win over USC, coupled with an Arizona win at Arizona State, gives UCLA the Pac-10 title -- via the tiebreaker in a four-way tie with USC, ASU and the Oregon-Oregon State winner. Of course, a loss might keep the Bruins home for the holidays -- and that's probably where they will be.

The Final Week

The maddening 2007 season is coming to a close. And the lucky ones are those who have already finished playing.

Last week, Nos. 1 and 2 both went down, clearing the path for three teams to vie for the BCS national championship. After the release of the latest BCS standings, the scenarios are much clearer -- though there is still potential for Armageddon.

The Guru has broken down those scenarios and the attendant results for all BCS bowls: (*denotes team must win its final game to earn berth)

Scenario One: Missouri beats Oklahoma, West Virginia beats Pittsburgh (Probability: 40.5%)

National championship: Missouri vs. West Virginia
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. USC*
Orange Bowl: ACC champ vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State* vs. Kansas
Sugar Bowl: SEC champ vs. Hawai'i*

Scenario Two: Oklahoma beats Missouri, West Virginia beats Pittsburgh (49.5%)

National championship: West Virginia vs. Ohio State
Rose Bowl: Illinois vs. USC*
Orange Bowl: ACC champ vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State* vs. Oklahoma
Sugar Bowl: SEC champ vs. Hawai'i*

Scenario Three: Missouri beats Oklahoma, Pittsburgh beats West Virginia (4.5%)

National championship: Missouri vs. Ohio State
Rose Bowl: Illinois vs. USC*
Orange Bowl: ACC champ vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State* vs. West Virginia
Sugar Bowl: SEC champ vs. Hawai'i*

Scenario Four: Oklahoma beats Missouri, Pittsburgh beats West Virginia (5.5%)
(This would be the Armageddon Scenario, and the following would be a best guess)

National championship: LSU vs. Ohio State
Rose Bowl: Illinois vs. USC*
Orange Bowl: ACC champ vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State* vs. Oklahoma
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Hawai'i*

In all likelihood, one of the first two scenarios will occur and the BCS dodges another bullet. Should scenario No. 4 occur, it would become a BCS nightmare with as many as eight two-loss teams with a legitimate claim to the title game -- not to mention one-loss Kansas and perhaps a 12-0 Hawai'i as well.

The key game, obviously, is the Backyard Brawl at Morgantown. If the Mountaineers, favored by double digits, win as expected, all is well in the BCS world. If not, then we might have all sorts of controversies, not to mention a potential split national championship.

Isn't that what the BCS is all about?

Further down in the standings, Hawai'i has nearly locked up a BCS berth by climbing into the No. 12 spot of the BCS standings. The Warriors should feel pretty comfortable right now because the circumstances virtually guarantee them an appearance in the Sugar Bowl. Hawai'i simply needs to beat Washington and not get passed by anybody. Should they drop to No. 13, the Warriors then need Illinois to stay out of the Top 14 to maintain their hold on a BCS invitation.

On the other hand, the Big XII, even with three teams in the Top 10, is not assured of a second BCS berth. If Georgia (by being in the Top 4) and Hawai'i (by being in the Top 12) earn guaranteed berths, then the last two slots might be claimed by Arizona State and Illinois. The Fiesta Bowl favors ASU because of its proximity and the Rose Bowl favors the Illini because it would preserve the Big Ten-Pac-10 affiliation.

There are lots of what-ifs. This season is not going to get sorted out until midnight Saturday. And even then, the debates will go on all night.

These Tigers are No. 1

Just like last week, the Tigers will be atop of the new BCS standings. But it will be the Missouri Tigers who replace the LSU Tigers as the 2007 regular season enters its final week.

Closing in at No. 2 and a spot in the BCS title game will be West Virginia. After demolishing overmatched UConn on Saturday, the Mountaineers should have a commanding lead in the standings over No. 3 Ohio State.

The Buckeyes are hardly out of it, however. Should Missouri lose to Oklahoma in the Big XII championship game, Ohio State will be playing in its second straight BCS national championship game.

This is where it gets interesting: If Missouri loses and West Virginia also gets upset by Pittsburgh next week, there will be a glut of 2-loss teams vying for a spot opposite of Ohio State. Despite its loss to Missouri, Kansas still has a slim chance of making it to the BCS title game via a backdoor.

After Kansas's loss, Hawai'i is the only undefeated team in Division I-A, with Washington left on its schedule. The Warriors are on the cusp of becoming the second consecutive WAC champion to go undefeated and earn a BCS bowl berth. The Guru projects that Hawai'i will be at No. 13, just one spot short of getting a guaranteed BCS bid. However, at the moment Hawai'i will be the 10th eligible team in the Top 14, and stands a very good chance of earning a BCS bowl berth.

The Guru's Projected Top 15: 1. Missouri; 2. West Virginia; 3. Ohio State; 4. Kansas; 5. Georgia; 6. LSU; 7. Virginia Tech; 8. USC; 9. Arizona State; 10. Oklahoma; 11. Florida; 12. Boston College; 13. Hawai'i; 14. Tennessee; 15. Illinois.

Hawaii F-ed Over

The BCS's big dogs apparently are not satisfied that Hawai'i's BCS hopes are already on life support. They want to pull the plug altogether.

The commissioners of the six BCS conferences voted to expand the at-large pool from their own conferences from 14 to 18 teams, adding yet another obstacle in Hawai'i's quest to earn a berth in one of the BCS bowls.

Here's how it works: Until Tuesday, only teams in the Top 14 of the final BCS standings may be considered for a BCS at-large berth. But there is an additional provision that each conference may send no more than two teams to BCS bowls each year.

Right now, that's not a problem. But in two weeks, this might be a big problem. It's very likely that there will be four Big XII, three Pac-10 and three SEC teams, but only one each from the ACC, Big East and Big Ten in the Top 14 in the final standings. That leaves the total available teams for the BCS at nine (do the math: 2+2+2+1+1+1=9).

So what to do? Potentially, Hawai'i could be sitting at No. 15, but because it's not in the Top 12 and not ahead of a conference champion, it does not qualify for an automatic bid. But with this new provision -- straight out of the school of "making-up-rules-as-we-go" -- Illinois stands to be a huge beneficiary. The Illini, now at No. 17, are in position to claim the final at-large berth.

WAC commissioner Karl Benson is taking the high road at the moment: "I don't think [the new rule] really has an effect on Boise State or Hawaii," Benson told the Associated Press. "This isn't anything that reduces or eliminates Boise State's or Hawaii's chances of getting into the BCS. Obviously, if they get into the top 12, it's still guaranteed."

But don't be surprised if Benson screams bloody murder -- and he should -- if a higher-ranked 12-0 Hawai'i team gets passed over by a 3-loss Illinois team that wouldn't have otherwise qualified until the new rule kicked in Tuesday.

Hawai'i's best hopes now rest with, for starters, an impressive victory over 10-1 Boise State on national TV Friday night. Then, a victory by UConn over West Virginia might help kick in the Top 16 clause. If that fails, then losses by Oregon, USC and Texas might become essential. And finally, if things do fall into place by Dec. 1, the Warriors must not forget about Washington.

The Huskies might be 4-7, but they handed Boise State its only loss of the season, and would love to do it again to Hawai'i in the final regular-season game of 2007.

-----

The Rooting Guide

1. LSU (10-1)
Remaining games: Nov. 23 vs. Arkansas (7-4); Dec. 1 at SEC championship
National title scenario: LSU will be going to the BCS national championship game if it beats Arkansas and wins the SEC title game.
BCS bowl scenario: A win over Arkansas will assure the Tigers a BCS bowl berth, even if they lost to Tennessee or Georgia in the SEC championship game.
Needs help from: No one. A two-loss LSU team has a very slim chance of getting into the BCS title game. If they lose to Georgia for the SEC title, they'd have zero chance.

2. Kansas (11-0)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 vs. Missouri (10-1); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
National title scenario: KU will be in the national championship game if it beats Missouri and then wins the Big XII title. So far, the Jayhawks have been the only BCS conference team that's avoided the upset bug. We'll find out what they're made of the next two weeks.
BCS bowl scenario: With Oklahoma's loss, the Jayhawks are pretty much a lock for at least a BCS bowl berth. An 11-1 or 12-1 KU team will be playing in a BCS bowl somewhere.
Needs help from: No one. Even if Kansas ends up being on of only two one-loss teams -- Ohio State being the other, the Jayhawks probably will be pushed out by a two-loss team like Georgia.

3. West Virginia (9-1)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 vs. Connecticut (9-2); Dec. 1 vs. Pittsburgh (4-6)
National title scenario: Two weeks ago, West Virginia looked as if it had no shot of reaching the national title game. Now it appears all the Mountaineers need is an LSU loss in the next two weeks -- or to have the Kansas/Missouri survivor lose the Big XII title game. They do not leave Morgantown again this season, but style points do count when it's this late in the season.
BCS bowl scenario: Saturday's game is effectively the Big East championship game. The winner will do no worse than getting the conference's automatic bid. The loser will be out -- the Big East is not a two-team conference this year.
Needs help from: LSU, Kansas/Missouri winner and Ohio State. Even though the Buckeyes are finished, they can theoretically jump West Virginia if the Mountaineers continue to win dangerously.

4. Missouri (10-1)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 vs. Kansas (11-0); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
National title scenario: Missouri may very well control its own destiny at this point. A win over Kansas should catapult the Tigers over West Virginia into the No. 2 spot. A victory at the Big XII title game should lock it up.
BCS bowl scenario: It's an all-or-nothing deal for Mizzou. Win the Big XII and go to the national title game. Lose, then the at-large bid might end up with a two-loss Texas or a one-loss Kansas.
Needs help from: LSU and West Virginia. Just to be sure, Missouri will want one of these teams to lose at least once.

5. Ohio State (11-1)
Remaining games: Regular season complete
National title scenario: The Buckeyes need help, but maybe not as much as some might think. Either LSU or the Kansas/Missouri winner must lose for the Buckeyes to have a shot, but beyond that, it's a close call. It's possible, if not probable, that Ohio State might jump West Virginia without the Mountaineers losing a game.
BCS bowl scenario: The Rose Bowl is in hand. Now the Buckeyes are waiting in the airport lounge to see if they can get an upgrade. (I know, it's a sacrilege to say any bowl would be an "upgrade" from the Granddaddy of 'em all, but these are the times.)
Needs help from: LSU, Kansas/Missouri winner, West Virginia, Arizona State.

6. Arizona State (9-1)
Remaining games: Nov. 22 vs. USC (8-2); Dec. 1 vs. Arizona (5-6)
National title scenario: It's not looking good for the Sun Devils, but beating the Trojans on Thanksgiving would be a start. And then at least three, probably four of the teams in front of them will have to lose for them to have a shot.
BCS bowl scenario: The Sun Devils will get no worse than a Rose Bowl berth by winning their last two games. A loss to USC might still net ASU a Fiesta Bowl berth, depending on what Oregon does in its final two games.
Needs help from: LSU, Kansas/Missouri winner, West Virginia and Oregon. Yes, one more loss by Oregon will make the Sun Devils a lock for a BCS bowl berth.

7. Georgia (9-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 at Georgia Tech (7-4)
National title scenario: It's a long, long shot, but UGA is the only 2-loss team that might have a shot to get into the national title game. Here's how: Kansas/Missouri winner loses in the Big XII title game, West Virginia and Arizona State each loses at least one game. Tennessee loses to Kentucky and hands Georgia the SEC East title. And then the Bulldogs upset LSU in the SEC title game.
BCS bowl scenario: Should Georgia finish 10-2 but fail to win the SEC East, it should still have the inside track to an at-large berth over Florida. What might foul up the Bulldogs' plans is a Tennessee win over LSU in the SEC title game. In that case, most likely the Tigers will end up with an at-large bid over Georgia.
Needs help from: Kansas/Missouri winner, West Virginia, Arizona State and Tennessee.

8. Virginia Tech (8-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 at Virginia; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A victory over archrival Virginia will earn the Hokies a trip to Jacksonville, against Boston College. An Orange Bowl berth comes with the ACC title.
Needs help from: No one. It's unlikely that the ACC will get an at-large berth. The new rule seems tailor-made for Illinois.

9. Oregon (8-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 at UCLA; Dec. 1 vs. Oregon State
BCS bowl prospect: The Ducks' national title run came to a crashing halt when Dennis Dixon tore his ACL early in a loss to Arizona. Now the Ducks must win their remaining two games with hobbled backup Brady Leaf just to get a BCS bowl bid.
Needs help from: USC. A victory by the Trojans over Arizona State gives the control of the Rose Bowl race back to Oregon -- provided that the Ducks win their remaining two games.

10. Oklahoma (9-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 vs. Oklahoma State; Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
BCS bowl prospect: It's unlikely for OU to get a BCS bowl berth without a victory in the Big XII title game. The at-large berth most likely will go to the Kansas-Missouri loser, or even Texas.
Needs help from: No one.

11. USC (8-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 22 at Arizona State; Dec. 1 vs. UCLA
BCS bowl prospect: The Trojans' run as the Pac-10 champ might not be over after all, and they are very much alive for a sixth straight BCS bowl berth, extending their own record. By finishing 10-2 with a win at ASU will assure USC a BCS bowl berth, maybe even a third straight trip to the Rose Bowl, should Oregon lose one more game.
Needs help from: Oregon. If the Ducks lose one of its final two games, USC will win the conference by beating ASU and UCLA.

12. Florida (8-3)
Remaining game: Nov. 24 vs. Florida State
BCS bowl prospect: Florida's chances of reaching a BCS bowl are extremely slim, but given how this season has evolved, you just can't count them out yet.
Needs help from: Tennessee and Georgia. Georgia needs to lose to Georgia Tech but still gets into the SEC title game and lose again. In order for that to happen, Tennessee needs to lose to Kentucky first.

13. Texas (9-2)
Remaining game: Nov. 23 at Texas A&M
BCS bowl prospect: Texas all of a sudden is just an OU loss away from getting into the Big XII title game. The bad news is that there is almost no chance for the Longhorns to get an at-large berth.
Needs help from: Oklahoma. A Sooners loss to Oklahoma State, coupled with a Texas win over A&M will give the Longhorns the opportunity to win the Big XII.

14. Boston College (9-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 vs. Miami; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: It's onto Jacksonville for the ACC title game against the Virginia-Virginia Tech winner. A victory there will land the Eagles in the Orange Bowl.
Needs help from: No one.

15. Hawai'i (10-0)
Remaining games: Nov. 23 vs. Boise State; Dec. 1 vs. Washington
BCS bowl prospect: Read the post up top ... it covers everything.
Needs help from: Texas, Florida and USC. Losses by any/all of these teams will help Hawai'i tremendously in the human polls, and thus enhance its chances to be in the Top 12.

16. Virginia (9-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 vs. Virginia Tech; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A win over the Hokies will give the Cavs the division title and a spot in the ACC title game. A win in Jacksonville will earn them an Orange Bowl berth.
Needs help from: No one.

17. Illinois (9-3)
Remaining games: Regular season complete
BCS bowl prospect: Ron Zook is living a charmed life. The victory over then-No. 1 Ohio State is giving the Illini unbelievable pub, to the point that BCS rules are hastily altered to potentially accommodate his team. How would you like a Florida-Illinois game in the Zooker, uh, Sugar Bowl?
Needs help from: Too many to count right now. But it'll all work out at the end.

18. Tennessee (8-3)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 at Kentucky; Dec. 1 SEC championship
BCS bowl prospect: The Vols control their own BCS destiny. Win their remaining two games, including the SEC title game, they will be in the Sugar Bowl. Lose just once, it will all go kaput.
Needs help from: No one. A loss to Kentucky will hand the SEC East to Georgia.

19. Boise State (10-1)
Remaining game: Nov. 23 at Hawai'i
BCS bowl prospect: It was looking good a week ago, but now it's all but extinguished for the Broncos. It's not possible for Boise State to get into the Top 12, even with a win over Hawai'i. And it's not probable for Boise State to be ahead of a conference champion and therefore triggering the Top 16 clause.
Needs help from: God.

20. Connecticut (9-2)
Remaining game: Nov. 24 at West Virginia
BCS bowl prospect: Very simple -- beat WVU, and UConn becomes the second team to clinch a BCS bid. Lose to WVU, and UConn and Larry Taylor turn back into pumpkins, unfair catch or not.
Needs help from: Big East refs. Didn't it seem like they helped the Huskies in every one of their victories?

UO, OU, Oh, My!

Just when you thought we already had our upset of the week on Thursday, Texas Tech threw a monkey wrench to the BCS machine that was just beginning to churn somewhat normally.

Oklahoma's loss provided new life to the BCS title quests of West Virginia and Ohio State. And even Arizona State, with a key game against USC on Thanksgiving, might get back in the race as well.

The Guru projects that LSU will remain No. 1, Kansas will be the new No. 2, with West Virginia moving into No. 3, followed by Missouri, Ohio State and Arizona State. Every BCS conference team below No. 6 has at least two losses, and for now, is out of the title race.

Ohio State's victory might also have driven a large nail to the coffin, if not the final one, of Hawai'i's hopes of qualifying for a BCS berth. With the Top 16 clause not likely in effect, the Warriors will need a minor miracle to get into the Top 12, and with it, an automatic BCS berth.

The Guru's projected Top 15: 1. LSU; 2. Kansas; 3. West Virginia; 4. Missouri; 5. Ohio State; 6. Arizona State; 7. Georgia; 8. Virginia Tech; 9. Oregon; 10. Oklahoma; 11. USC; 12. Florida; 13. Texas; 14. Virginia; 15. Boston College.

Rooting Guide ... Part Deux

OK, Mountaineers fans: The Guru knows you're unhappy that West Virginia is relegated to the also-ran part of the Rooting Guide, and you have many righteous reasons to be upset. But here's the reality check: There is just about no way that WVU would make it to the national championship game.

Why? Simple, the computers. Besides Richard Billingsley, whose rankings are almost always the oddballs and tend to favor traditional powers (West Virginia among them), the computers uniformly have the Mountaineers between 10th and 12th. After losing last week, both Boston College and Arizona State still stay well in front of WVU on the computers -- as do all BCS conference teams with no more than one loss.

That makes WVU's quest a near-impossible one. Any team currently in the top 10 with zero or one loss will probably stay in the top 10 even after another defeat. Ohio State, even with a loss to Michigan, most likely will still be ahead of West Virginia in the BCS standings. This is now a mathematical quagmire for the Mountaineers, whose best hope for 2007 appears to be the Big East championship and a BCS bowl berth.

With that, we'll begin the second part of the Rooting Guide:

7. West Virginia (7-1)
Key games: Nov. 8 vs. Louisville; Nov.17 at Cincinnati; Nov. 24 vs. Connecticut
BCS bowl prospect: Controls its own destiny. If West Virginia wins out, it will claim the Big East championship and an automatic berth to a BCS bowl game, possibly the Rose Bowl.
Needs help from: No one, right now -- unless you're still thinking about the national championship, then the Mountaineers need everybody in front of them to lose, some twice.

8. Boston College (8-1)
Key games: Nov. 17 at Clemson; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: National championship out of the window, the Eagles will have to refocus on winning the ACC. Next week's game at Clemson will probably decide who wins the ACC Atlantic. And then it's onto Jacksonville for the ACC title game against the Virginia-Virginia Tech winner.
Needs help from: Wake Forest. A victory by the Demon Deacons over Clemson this week will give the Eagles a little cushion in the division. A 10-3 BC that loses in the ACC title game, though, most likely will not get a BCS at-large bid.

9. Arizona State (8-1)
Key games: Nov. 22 vs. USC; Dec. 1 vs. Arizona
BCS bowl prospect: The Sun Devils might have lost their shot at the national title game, but a Pac-10 championship, with it a Rose Bowl berth, is still very much in play. By winning its remaining three games, ASU will no do worse than Pac-10 co-champ and a Fiesta Bowl berth.
Needs help from: Oregon. A loss by the Ducks will put the Sun Devils back in the driver's seat in the Pac-10 race and their first Rose Bowl appearance since Jake Plummer was their quarterback.

10. Georgia (7-2)
Key games: Nov. 10 vs. Auburn; Nov. 17 vs. Kentucky
BCS bowl prospect: By winning its remaining games, Georgia is all but assured of a BCS at-large berth even if it fails to earn a spot in the SEC championship game. If the Bulldogs finish the regular season 10-2, they'll likely earn a trip to the Sugar Bowl should LSU advances to the BCS title game.
Needs help from: Tennessee. If the Vols remain unbeaten the rest of the way, they will have the tiebreaker edge over Georgia in the SEC East, by virtue of their victory over the Bulldogs.

11. Virginia Tech (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 24 at Virginia; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A victory over archrival Virginia will earn the Hokies a trip to Jacksonville, most likely against Boston College. An Orange Bowl berth comes with the ACC title.
Needs help from: No one, really. An at-large berth is all but out of the question for any 3-loss team at this point.

12. Michigan (8-2)
Key game: Nov. 17 vs. Ohio State
BCS bowl prospect: Back on Sept. 8, this seems an unlikely spot for the Wolverines. But it's now a one-game season for Michigan, just like it almost always is: Win, a trip to the Rose Bowl and Big Ten title. Lose, nothing (OK, maybe a trip to Orlando, but, in the eyes of Michigan fans, nothing).
Needs help from: No one.

13. Connecticut (8-1)
Key games: Nov. 10 at Cincinnati; Nov. 24 at West Virginia
BCS bowl prospect: This should be basketball season in Storrs by now, but the football Huskies still have all the marbles to play for. Most likely, the Big East title will be decided in Morgantown. A two-loss UConn also might have a shot at a BCS at-large berth.
Needs help from: West Virginia. A Mountaineers loss will put the Huskies in the cat-bird seat, with a two-game lead, in the Big East race.

14. Texas (8-2)
Key game: Nov. 23 at Texas A&M
BCS bowl prospect: Unless Oklahoma implodes, the Longhorns won't win the Big 12 South. That said, a 10-2 Texas is very much in the hunt for an at-large berth.
Needs help from: Oklahoma. Like it or not, 'Horns fans must root for OU in the Big 12 title game. An OU victory gives Texas a shot at a BCS bowl berth. An OU loss means the at-large bid will end up with the Sooners.

15. Florida (6-3)
Key game: Nov. 10 at South Carolina
BCS bowl prospect: Even with three losses, the Gators are not quite dead yet. If fact, it's possible for Florida to earn a BCS bowl berth with an 8-5 record. Here's how ...
Needs help from: Tennessee, Georgia. ... should both Tennessee and Georgia lose one (but not more) of their remaining games, and Florida beats the Ol' Ball Coach, then the Gators win the SEC East even if it falls on its face against Florida Atlantic and Florida State. Considering the remaining schedules for both the Vols and Bulldogs, it's not at all improbable.

16. Hawai'i (8-0)
Key games: Nov. 23 vs. Boise State; Dec. 1 vs. Washington
BCS bowl prospect: Fading but still breathing. It goes without saying that the Warriors need to go undefeated. But besides that, they might have hit their high-water mark two weeks ago at No. 14 and they're now sliding back.
Needs help from: Michigan, Connecticut and Boise State. A Michigan win over Ohio State would be devastating for Hawai'i, for that would get the Big Ten a second BCS berth and keep Hawai'i out of the Top 12, where it needs to be for a guaranteed berth. Likewise, a UConn win at West Virginia might hand the Big East two berths. Finally, Hawai'i needs Boise State to be 10-1 when it comes to the islands -- that will constitute the only game against a ranked team that the Warriors play all season.

17. USC (7-2)
Key games: Nov. 10 at California; Nov. 22 at Arizona State
BCS bowl prospect: The Trojans' run as the Pac-10 champ might be over, but they are very much alive for a sixth straight BCS bowl berth, extending their own record. By finishing 10-2 with a win at ASU will assure USC a BCS bowl berth, maybe even a third straight trip to the Rose Bowl, should Oregon move on to the BCS title game.
Needs help from: Oregon. Well, depends on what you're looking for. If the Ducks lose two of their final three, USC can still win the conference. Since that's not likely, Trojans fans are better off rooting for Oregon to get into the title game so USC can get back to Pasadena.

19. Virginia (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 24 vs. Virginia Tech; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A win over the Hokies will give the Cavs the division title and a spot in the ACC title game. A win in Jacksonville will earn them an Orange Bowl berth.
Needs help from: No one.

21. Clemson (7-2)
Key games: Nov. 10 vs. Wake Forest; Nov. 17 vs. Boston College
BCS bowl prospect: Believe it or not, the Tigers control the ACC Atlantic race, thanks to Papa Bowden. FSU's victory over BC last week allows Clemson a clear path to the ACC title game, needing just home wins over Wake and BC.
Needs help from: No one.

24. Tennessee (6-3)
Key games: Nov. 10 vs. Arkansas; Nov. 24 at Kentucky
BCS bowl prospect: The Vols are the lowest-ranked team that control their own BCS destiny. Win their remaining four games, including the SEC title game, they will be in the Sugar Bowl. Lose just once, it can all go kaput.
Needs help from: No one and everyone. There are too many tiebreaker scenarios to cover here, so for its own sake, Tennessee had better keep winning games.

25. Kentucky (6-3)
Key games: Nov. 17 at Georgia; Nov. 24 vs. Tennessee
BCS bowl prospect: Kentucky still has a shot to win the SEC East, and it's not necessarily a longshot. It all depends on what happens this weekend's game involving ...
Needs help from: Florida. If the Gators lose at South Carolina, then Kentucky can take the division and play in its first SEC title game by winning their remaining games. If Florida wins, it's all over for the Wildcats.Hwa

Florida, WVU Commiserate in Losers Bracket

It’s T-72 hours, give or take, until the first official BCS standings are published. And that awful shriek you’re hearing from a distance is the echo out of all that whining from Gainesville to Morgantown.

Yes, there will be a lot of unhappy folks from Gator Nation, but their moaning will be nothing compared to the plight of the Mountaineers.

Tommy Tuberville started all this, of course. Two weeks ago, he complained that the SEC won’t be getting a fair share from the BCS because the conference is just, oh, so tough. He was politicking to save Auburn from the awful fate of finishing undefeated but third in the BCS standings – for the second time in three years.

Well, after last Saturday, he didn’t have to worry about that anymore, Arkansas took care of that. But now, it’ll be Urban Meyer’s turn to whine.

Florida might, like Auburn in 2004, go undefeated and only get a ticket to the non-championship game in New Orleans. The Gators, with impressive victories over Tennessee and LSU, catapulted into the No. 2 spot in the AP poll. Of course, in the world the BCS, that’s the poll that doesn’t count.

In the rankings that do count, Florida is a distant third to USC. And unless the Trojans stumble against formidable Pac-10 foes (Oregon and Cal) or Notre Dame, it won’t matter if the Gators stay undefeated the rest of the year.

Just why is that?

The schedule, for one. While SC’s three non-conference games are against Arkansas, Nebraska and Notre Dame, three top 25 teams with a combined record of 14-3, Florida fattens its record on the likes of Southern Miss, Central Florida and I-AA Western Carolina. What, Northern Colorado wasn’t available?

If the computers like the Trojans now, they will like them even more if they stay undefeated through the daunting trifecta of Oregon-Cal-Notre Dame on consecutive weekends. Florida, with Vanderbilt, Western Carolina and a clearly downtrodden Florida State still on the schedule, can only hope some of those computers have a meltdown.

And really, do we still have to take West Virginia seriously? Whatever its beef might be?

When you schedule I-AA Eastern Washington (1-5), East Carolina (2-3) and the perennial SEC patsy Mississippi State (1-5) among your five non-conference games, you have no argument. Especially not, when your conference isn’t exactly a BCS stalwart.

The Mountaineers will not play in the national championship game, not unless about 100 other schools decide to drop football between now and New Year’s Day. No matter what the humans think, the computers dislike … no, make that despise, West Virginia. Even if the Mountaineers stay undefeated, they won’t get enough love from the silicon chips to jump one-loss Notre Dame or Texas.

Sorry, West Virginia. You get what you play for.