The NFL draft is all about procuring the best talent from college football. And what happens at the draft tells so much about not just the past college football season, but the upcoming one as well.
Granted, the best college football players don't always turn out to be great pros and some Canton enshrinees had very pedestrian college careers. But taken with totality through history, the NFL draft provides a very good indication on the relative strength of college football conferences and programs. You don't win championships -- at any level -- without talent.
So it should come as no surprise that for the ninth year in a row, the SEC led all conferences in total draft picks. This not so coincidentally mirrored the SEC's dominance in college football. In those nine years, the SEC won seven consecutive BCS titles (from 2006-2012) before finally vacating the perch the past two seasons.
But the SEC's two-year national title drought may not be coming to an end this next season, and that's among several interesting revelations from the 2015 NFL draft:
1. The SEC's talent advantage is shrinking
Despite leading all conferences with 54 players taken in the draft, the SEC got there not so much with top-end talent but with many second-day role players who may or may not make it on the Opening Day roster. The Pac-12 and the ACC had more first-round picks (nine each) than the SEC. And the Pac-12 led all conferences with 25 picks in the first three rounds, three more than the SEC. (And keep in mind that the Pac-12 has two fewer programs than the SEC's 14.)
Using the methodology Draftpoints, with draftees weighted based on where they were selected, only four SEC schools were ranked in the top 15, topped by Florida at No. 4. That the Gators grossly underachieved despite considerable talent under Will Muschamp is no secret -- and hence why he was canned after four years. But overall the SEC just isn't consistently recruiting and developing the best players as it did in the late 2000s and early 2010s.
This trend is expected to continue and therefore it would not at all be a surprise if the SEC fails to win the national title for a third straight year and miss out on the championship game for a second consecutive season.
2. Florida State has a rough road ahead
First, let's just acknowledge that the Seminoles' two-year run of 27-1, with one national title and another national semifinal appearance, was no fluke. FSU led all schools with 11 draftees, including the top pick quarterback Jameis Winston, and dwarfed everyone in the aforementioned Draftpoints system.
And not only just that the Seminoles were as good as advertised, they actually dominated a conference that was considerably underrated by college football pundits. The ACC finished second overall to the SEC with 47 total draftees and tied with the Pac-12 with nine first-rounders. The top three schools according to Draftpoints all came from the ACC - FSU, Miami and Louisville -- with Clemson checking in at No. 12.
The bad news for the Seminoles here, of course, is that most of Jimbo Fisher's great hauls in 2011 and '12 is gone and there's a daunting rebuilding project ahead. Never mind replacing Winston at quarterback, Fisher will have to find replacements for nearly half of his starting lineup in 2015.
3. TCU and Baylor will dominate a weak Big 12
Neither TCU nor Baylor made the inaugural College Football Playoff field despite finishing as co-champions of the Big 12. While not having a conference title game was a factor, that they dominated a soft conference didn't help, either.
Both TCU and Baylor will have a vast majority of their starters returning, with only two players taken in the draft from each school (though one was Baylor QB Bryce Petty). But while both teams relied heavily on underclassmen last year, their Big 12 opponents clearly did not possess an abundance of talent. Only two Big 12 players were taken in the first round, seven in the first three rounds and 25 overall -- all dead last among Power 5 conferences.
The perception that the Big 12 is a weak conference surely won't be bolstered by the draft and that will influence the selection committee's decision at the season's end. Either TCU or Baylor might need to run the table to avoid another playoff snub.
4. Pac-12 is the most balanced and competitive conference
Oregon was favored to end the conference's decade-long national title drought, only to be denied by Ohio State in the national title game. But the Ducks had to battle through an absolute gauntlet as the Pac-12 has proved to be the toughest conference from top to bottom.
In the 2015 Draft, the Pac-12 led with picks in the first round and also the first three rounds (despite having two fewer teams than the SEC, ACC and Big Ten). In terms of Draftpoints, the Pac-12 placed six schools in the top 15, more than any other conference. And Arizona isn't even among them as the Wildcats didn't have a single player drafted since the bulk of their starters will return from a team that won the Pac-12 South last year and played in the Fiesta Bowl.
The Pac-12 is surging in this armed race with its old standard-bearer returning to the national championship race. USC had two first-round picks in the draft, pushing its all-time total to 79 and overall draftees to 489 -- both No. 1 in the history of NFL draft. But with the Trojans unchained from NCAA sanctions and having a full complement of scholarships for the first time in four years, they already reloaded with the nation's top-ranked recruiting class this spring.
5. Ohio State has a good chance to repeat as champions
The Big Ten had a pedestrian draft, with three first-round picks, 15 in the first three rounds and 35 overall, all placing fourth among Power 5 conferences, only ahead of the Big 12. The school that performed best in the draft is Ohio State, with five players selected, the highest being WR Devin Smith going in the second round.
This is all great news for the defending national champions, who will be shortlisted for the playoff once again.
The Buckeyes already return a team with at least 15 starters, including Heisman candidate RB Ezekiel Elliott and a trio of quarterbacks that all could be starting for another FBS program. They do not face a stiff competition in the Big Ten especially with their archrival Michigan wallowing in mediocrity. The Wolverines, though still the winningest program in college football history, just went a school-record five years without a first-round pick and has had only one first rounder since Jake Long went No. 1 overall in 2008.
Help is on the way for Michigan, though, via the NFL. Jim Harbaugh will turn the fortunes of his alma mater around and reboot the rivalry. It's just a matter of when -- but maybe not in 2015.
Showing posts with label Ohio State. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ohio State. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 6, 2015
Saturday, December 6, 2014
First Final Four in New Era
The College Football Playoff selection committee has some hard choices to make. Starting Friday night in Santa Clara, Calif., and ending Saturday night in Indianapolis, every one of its top six teams from last week won. And it only has four playoff spots to dole out.
But forget the canard that the selection committee looks at the entire picture from scratch every week; the 12 members already tipped their hand last week. The top three teams—Alabama, Oregon and TCU—all won impressively to claim a piece of their respective conference championships. No. 4 Florida State as usual labored to win its game, but as the only unbeaten team in the FBS it will get to defend its national title.
That leaves Ohio State and Baylor on the outside, but the committee can reasonably defend its decision for leaving them out. These two teams easily had the worst losses among the contenders—Ohio State to 6-6 Virginia Tech and Baylor to 7-5 West Virginia—and also the weakest schedules (according to Jeff Sagarin).
Despite Ohio State's impressive thrashing of Wisconsin, the problem remains that the committee views the Big Ten as the weakest Power Five conference, and with good reason. Each of the Big Ten's top four teams lost a nonconference game to a Power Five opponent, and Ohio State's loss to Virginia Tech was actually the worst among them.
As for Baylor, its nonconference schedule and how it performed against the nine common opponents will allow the committee to overlook the Bears' head-to-head victory over TCU as both teams shared the Big 12 title with identical 11-1 records.
Of course, unlike the BCS, we can no longer project the rankings with confidence, as the final decision will be made by 12 people and nothing else. And since this is year one of the College Football Playoff, we have no precedent to go by.
That said, this is how we project the committee's final rankings, to be released at 12:45 p.m. ET Sunday.
No. 1 vs. No. 4: Alabama vs. Florida State, Sugar Bowl - The matchup of the teams that won the last three national championships will be intriguing. Florida State was wobbly all season but never lost a game, something the other 127 FBS teams couldn't do. Alabama looks primed to continue its dynasty-interrupted with Lane Kiffin calling the shots of a dynamic offense.
No. 2 vs. No. 3: Oregon vs. TCU, Rose Bowl - It'll be TCU's second Rose Bowl berth in five years—only Wisconsin has more appearances in that span. The last time the Horned Frogs were in Pasadena they were the gritty underdogs from the Mountain West and beat the Badgers to finish the season unbeaten. This time they'll face an explosive Oregon team piloted by the presumptive Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota.
Group-of-Five Bid
Boise State, the only non-Power Five team in last week's committee rankings, made things easy for the committee by taking care of Fresno State to win the Mountain West title late Saturday night. The Broncos likely will earn a trip to the Fiesta Bowl, their third in nine years. They beat Oklahoma and TCU in their two previous appearances in the BCS era.
But forget the canard that the selection committee looks at the entire picture from scratch every week; the 12 members already tipped their hand last week. The top three teams—Alabama, Oregon and TCU—all won impressively to claim a piece of their respective conference championships. No. 4 Florida State as usual labored to win its game, but as the only unbeaten team in the FBS it will get to defend its national title.
That leaves Ohio State and Baylor on the outside, but the committee can reasonably defend its decision for leaving them out. These two teams easily had the worst losses among the contenders—Ohio State to 6-6 Virginia Tech and Baylor to 7-5 West Virginia—and also the weakest schedules (according to Jeff Sagarin).
Despite Ohio State's impressive thrashing of Wisconsin, the problem remains that the committee views the Big Ten as the weakest Power Five conference, and with good reason. Each of the Big Ten's top four teams lost a nonconference game to a Power Five opponent, and Ohio State's loss to Virginia Tech was actually the worst among them.
As for Baylor, its nonconference schedule and how it performed against the nine common opponents will allow the committee to overlook the Bears' head-to-head victory over TCU as both teams shared the Big 12 title with identical 11-1 records.
Of course, unlike the BCS, we can no longer project the rankings with confidence, as the final decision will be made by 12 people and nothing else. And since this is year one of the College Football Playoff, we have no precedent to go by.
That said, this is how we project the committee's final rankings, to be released at 12:45 p.m. ET Sunday.
| Rank | Lw | Team | Best Win* | Losses* |
| 1 | 1 | Alabama | No. 8 Miss State | No. 9 Ole Miss |
| 2 | 2 | Oregon | No. 7 Michigan State | No. 12 Arizona |
| 3 | 3 | TCU | No. 11 Kansas State | No. 6 Baylor |
| 4 | 4 | Florida State | No. 10 Georgia Tech | None |
| 5 | 5 | Ohio State | No. 7 Michigan State | Virginia Tech (6-6) |
| 6 | 6 | Baylor | No. 3 TCU | West Virginia (7-5) |
| 7 | 8 | Michigan State | 2 | |
| 8 | 10 | Miss State | 2 | |
| 9 | 12 | Ole Miss | 3 | |
| 10 | 9 | Kansas State | 3 | |
| 11 | 11 | Georgia Tech | 3 | |
| 12 | 7 | Arizona | 3 | |
| 13 | 14 | Georgia | 3 | |
| 14 | 15 | UCLA | 3 | |
| 15 | 17 | Arizona State | 3 | |
| 16 | 16 | Missouri | 3 | |
| 17 | 13 | Wisconsin | 3 | |
| 18 | 18 | Clemson | 3 | |
| 19 | 19 | Auburn | 4 | |
| 20 | 21 | Louisville | 3 | |
| 21 | 22 | Boise State | 2 | |
| 22 | 23 | Utah | 4 | |
| 23 | 24 | LSU | 4 | |
| 24 | 25 | USC | 4 | |
| 25 | NR | Minnesota | 4 |
* Projected rankings
No. 1 vs. No. 4: Alabama vs. Florida State, Sugar Bowl - The matchup of the teams that won the last three national championships will be intriguing. Florida State was wobbly all season but never lost a game, something the other 127 FBS teams couldn't do. Alabama looks primed to continue its dynasty-interrupted with Lane Kiffin calling the shots of a dynamic offense.
No. 2 vs. No. 3: Oregon vs. TCU, Rose Bowl - It'll be TCU's second Rose Bowl berth in five years—only Wisconsin has more appearances in that span. The last time the Horned Frogs were in Pasadena they were the gritty underdogs from the Mountain West and beat the Badgers to finish the season unbeaten. This time they'll face an explosive Oregon team piloted by the presumptive Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota.
Group-of-Five Bid
Boise State, the only non-Power Five team in last week's committee rankings, made things easy for the committee by taking care of Fresno State to win the Mountain West title late Saturday night. The Broncos likely will earn a trip to the Fiesta Bowl, their third in nine years. They beat Oklahoma and TCU in their two previous appearances in the BCS era.
Wednesday, December 3, 2014
Committee Sets Stage for Final Rankings
Sorry, Baylor.
The selection committee delivered an emphatic message Tuesday night, practically anointing the four teams that will make the inaugural College Football Playoff field. That leaves Baylor and Ohio State on the outside looking in, even if they won their respective final regular-season games.
By moving TCU up one spot to No. 3—over undefeated Florida State (12-0)—the committee is indicating that the Horned Frogs' playoff position is unassailable as long as they defeat 2-9 Iowa State at home Saturday. A Baylor victory over Kansas State will earn the Bears a co-Big 12 championship, but that, along with their 61-58 win over TCU earlier in the season, won't be enough for them to leapfrog TCU.
So that's where we stand with five days remaining before the committee's final rankings are revealed Sunday morning. Here are five other observations:
1. Head-to-head matters, sort of
While it's listed as one of the major criteria for the committee, chairman Jeff Long has consistently downplayed its value. After Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby artfully declined to name "one true champion" on Monday, Long echoed that sentiment a day later.
This gives the committee a convenient out in terms of following one of its other major criteria—conference championship—since the Horned Frogs will be able to share the Big 12 title with the Baylor-Kansas State winner as long as they beat Iowa State.
2. Florida State, undefeated, unloved
Another week, another win, and the Seminoles dropped another spot. Jameis Winston and Co. have strung together a series of ugly victories, but being the only unbeaten team in FBS somehow isn't good enough for the committee (or the Associated Press Top 25, which seems to be aping the committee of late).
The silver lining for FSU is that it's not in danger of falling out of the playoff field as long as it beats No. 11 Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship Game Saturday, which will account for its best win of the season, according to the current rankings.
3. How would BCS standings have looked?
If the late, great Bowl Championship Series was still in business, its standings would've yielded the same four playoff teams, though in a slightly different order. Alabama, Florida State, Oregon and TCU would be in the top four, with Ohio State and Baylor significantly behind.
A composite of over 100 computer rankings would in fact put Ohio State in the playoff field ahead of Florida State, with Baylor a long way down at No. 8.
4. If there are upsets of Top Four teams, then what?
Other than TCU, the teams currently in the playoff field are all playing conference championship games this weekend. If any of them lose, it figures to benefit Ohio State and Baylor. But because of its ranking, don't discount the possibility of No. 7 Arizona jumping into the four-team playoff with a second victory over Oregon.
5. Stay up late for Group of Five crowning
Boise State is the only team not from the Power Five conferences in the rankings. If the Broncos defeat 6-6 Fresno State for a second time this season, they will clinch their third major bowl bid in nine years, likely another Fiesta Bowl berth. It'll be a late, late show since the Mountain West Championship Game is the last game Saturday night with a 10 p.m. ET kickoff.
The selection committee delivered an emphatic message Tuesday night, practically anointing the four teams that will make the inaugural College Football Playoff field. That leaves Baylor and Ohio State on the outside looking in, even if they won their respective final regular-season games.
By moving TCU up one spot to No. 3—over undefeated Florida State (12-0)—the committee is indicating that the Horned Frogs' playoff position is unassailable as long as they defeat 2-9 Iowa State at home Saturday. A Baylor victory over Kansas State will earn the Bears a co-Big 12 championship, but that, along with their 61-58 win over TCU earlier in the season, won't be enough for them to leapfrog TCU.
So that's where we stand with five days remaining before the committee's final rankings are revealed Sunday morning. Here are five other observations:
1. Head-to-head matters, sort of
While it's listed as one of the major criteria for the committee, chairman Jeff Long has consistently downplayed its value. After Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby artfully declined to name "one true champion" on Monday, Long echoed that sentiment a day later.
This gives the committee a convenient out in terms of following one of its other major criteria—conference championship—since the Horned Frogs will be able to share the Big 12 title with the Baylor-Kansas State winner as long as they beat Iowa State.
2. Florida State, undefeated, unloved
Another week, another win, and the Seminoles dropped another spot. Jameis Winston and Co. have strung together a series of ugly victories, but being the only unbeaten team in FBS somehow isn't good enough for the committee (or the Associated Press Top 25, which seems to be aping the committee of late).
The silver lining for FSU is that it's not in danger of falling out of the playoff field as long as it beats No. 11 Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship Game Saturday, which will account for its best win of the season, according to the current rankings.
3. How would BCS standings have looked?
If the late, great Bowl Championship Series was still in business, its standings would've yielded the same four playoff teams, though in a slightly different order. Alabama, Florida State, Oregon and TCU would be in the top four, with Ohio State and Baylor significantly behind.
A composite of over 100 computer rankings would in fact put Ohio State in the playoff field ahead of Florida State, with Baylor a long way down at No. 8.
4. If there are upsets of Top Four teams, then what?
Other than TCU, the teams currently in the playoff field are all playing conference championship games this weekend. If any of them lose, it figures to benefit Ohio State and Baylor. But because of its ranking, don't discount the possibility of No. 7 Arizona jumping into the four-team playoff with a second victory over Oregon.
5. Stay up late for Group of Five crowning
Boise State is the only team not from the Power Five conferences in the rankings. If the Broncos defeat 6-6 Fresno State for a second time this season, they will clinch their third major bowl bid in nine years, likely another Fiesta Bowl berth. It'll be a late, late show since the Mountain West Championship Game is the last game Saturday night with a 10 p.m. ET kickoff.
| Rank | Team | B/R Mock | BCS | vs. T25 Then* | vs. T25 Now |
| 1 | Alabama | 1 | 1 | 4-1 | 3-1 |
| 2 | Oregon | 2 | 4 | 3-0 | 3-1 |
| 3 | TCU | 4 | 2 | 4-1 | 3-1 |
| 4 | Florida St. | 3 | 3 | 3-0 | 2-0 |
| 5 | Ohio St. | 5 | 5 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| 6 | Baylor | 6 | 6 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| 7 | Arizona | 7 | 7 | 3-1 | 3-2 |
| 8 | Michigan St. | 10 | 9 | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| 9 | Kansas St. | 8 | 10 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| 10 | Miss St. | 9 | 8 | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| 11 | Georgia Tech | 12 | 13 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| 12 | Ole Miss | 14 | 11 | 3-3 | 3-2 |
| 13 | Wisconsin | 11 | 12 | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| 14 | Georgia | 15 | 15 | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| 15 | UCLA | 16 | 16 | 3-1 | 3-2 |
| 16 | Missouri | 13 | 14 | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| 17 | Arizona St. | 17 | 18 | 4-2 | 1-2 |
| 18 | Clemson | 20 | 20 | 0-3 | 1-3 |
| 19 | Auburn | 18 | 19 | 3-3 | 2-3 |
| 20 | Oklahoma | 19 | 17 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| 21 | Louisville | 21 | 21 | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| 22 | Boise St. | 22 | 22 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| 23 | Utah | 24 | 26 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| 24 | LSU | 23 | 23 | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| 25 | USC | 25 | 25 | 2-2 | 1-3 |
* Ranked by AP/committee at time of game
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