What Would Playoff Committee Have Done in 2013?

The Bowl Championship Series era unofficially ended Sunday night with the release of the final set of BCS standings. After 16 seasons, the much-maligned, unloved, yet surprisingly effective setup is giving way to the new College Football Playoff, set to debut next season.

The CFP is bound to be an improvement over the BCS, right? With a gang of 13 picking four teams to enter the playoff instead of a mish-mash of polls and computer rankings deciding the top two teams, it must be less controversial, no?

It may very well be a case of "be careful of what you wish for."

For all its flaws, the BCS at least had a reasonable degree of transparency as its standings actually were fairly predictable. Having been the self-anointed Guru since 2006, I had gotten so good at projecting the standings, that I was rarely surprised by anything, especially in the top of the standings.

But I have only a vague clue as to what the committee might do next season. In fact, the 2014 playoff field might be the most difficult to handicap as there will be no precedent in the history of the sport to serve as a marker.

That's why I campaigned and genuinely hoped that the committee members would release their top four for this season. That way, at least we'd have an idea about how they might behave next season and what criteria would be of more importance to them.

Since that's not forthcoming, I've decided to do the job for them. Here's what my playoff pairings would be if I were a committee member:

No. 1 Florida State vs. No. 4 Michigan State (to be played at Sugar Bowl)

No. 2 Auburn vs. No. 3 Stanford (to be played at Rose Bowl)

(FULL ARTICLE @BLEACHER REPORT)

War Damn Eagle Goes to Pasadena

Did the BCS work? Well, in its final season, it did. Like magic. For Auburn.

The Tigers' magical ride began with Miracle on the Plains when they miraculously defeated Georgia on a fourth-and-forever Hail Mary. It continued with the now epic Iron Bowl missed-kick-return. Then, after outlasting Missouri in a mind-boggling shootout in the SEC Championship Game, the Tigers got the final piece of good news before their bus even pulled out of Atlanta - Ohio State lost to Michigan State in the Big Ten title game.

So Auburn will be headed to Pasadena for the last-ever BCS Championship Game against No. 1 Florida State, which cruised past Duke to win the ACC title. It will be the Seminoles' fourth BCS title game appearance - but their first since playing in the first three BCS title games from 1998-2000.

With Auburn back in its second BCS title game in four years, the SEC will now have a chance to close out the BCS era with its eighth consecutive national championship. Incredibly, the state of Alabama will be represented in the BCS title game for the fifth straight season.


Projected final BCS standings:

1. Florida State, 2. Auburn, 3. Alabama, 4. Michigan State, 5. Stanford, 6. Baylor, 7. Ohio State, 8. South Carolina, 9. Missouri, 10. Clemson.

11. Oregon, 12. Oklahoma, 13. Oklahoma State, 14. Arizona State, 15. LSU, 16. Central Florida, 17. UCLA, 18. Wisconsin, 19. Louisville, 20. Northern Illinois.

21. Fresno State, 22. Georgia, 23. Texas A&M, 24. USC, 25. Duke.


Projected BCS bowl matchups:

BCS Championship: No. 1 Florida State (ACC) vs. No. 2 Auburn (SEC)

Rose Bowl: No. 4 Michigan State (Big Ten) vs. No. 5 Stanford (Pac-12)

Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Alabama (at-large) vs. No. 12 Oklahoma (at-large)

Orange Bowl: No. 7 Ohio State (at-large) vs. No. 10 Clemson (at-large)

Fiesta Bowl: No. 6 Baylor (Big 12) vs. No. 16 Central Florida (American)

(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)

Win or Lose, Michigan State Is Rose Bowl Bound?

It's Pasadena or ... Pasadena?

Michigan State is potentially in a win-win situation Saturday night in the Big Ten Championship Game against Ohio State. Win, the Spartans claim the conference title and earn a trip to the Rose Bowl. Lose, the Spartans send the Buckeyes to the BCS title game (in Pasadena) and get to replace them as the Big Ten representative ... in the Rose Bowl.

About the only thing that can foul up Michigan State's first trip to Pasadena in a quarter century is the provision that a team must finish in the top 14 in the final BCS standings to be eligible for an at-large BCS bowl berth. Currently ranked 10th in the BCS standings, there is a chance the Spartans can fall out of the top 14 with a loss, forcing to Rose Bowl to pick someone else.

How likely are the Spartans to fall out of the top 14 if they lose to Ohio State? Their fate might hinge on a single other game—Bedlam.

(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)

BCS Championship Game and Bowls: How Much Do They Cost?

By Jesse Lawrence

After one of the most suspenseful and exciting weekends of college football in recent memory, the BCS bowl picture went from tidy to a wide open mess. The major spark for the tumult was Alabama’s loss to Auburn. But Ohio State’s nail-biting win over Michigan also contributed to the chaotic bowl picture that has more questions than answers.

Despite all that college football goodness, there’s still a week to go before the picture clears up and this weekend’s conference championship games are set to play just as big of a role in determining the bowl picture as did the games last weekend.  Below is a breakdown of the most up-to-date picture and prices.


BCS National Championship (BCS No. 1 vs. BCS No. 2)

BCS National Championship tickets rose 5% over the weekend. Even as the top team heading into the weekend, Alabama, will not be appearing in the Nation Championship Game, the average price on the secondary market still went up. The actual price was up over $100 per ticket, going from $2,071 on Friday night to $2,176 on Monday morning. Florida State vs. Ohio State is the probable matchup right now if both teams win this weekend.

For Ohio State it would be its first appearance since 2007 and the first for Florida State since 2000. That’s a lot of pent-up demand, and it would be a game that either team could win. According to OSU.edu, 6,819 Buckeyes live in Los Angeles, which makes it the fifth most populous metro outside of Ohio, where 500,000 alumnus live. They’d have a long way to travel as would FSU alums, but for whoever wins, it would be well worth it.

Rose Bowl (Big Ten vs. PAC-12)

Rose Bowl tickets dropped 4% over the weekend as Ohio State, at least temporarily, jumped into one of the spots in the National Championship Game. Over the weekend, the average ticket price dropped from $839 to $809. As this game typically pits the top team in the Big Ten against the top team in the PAC-12, the most likely scenario for this game at the moment would be Michigan State, taking the place of Ohio State, facing off against Stanford.

Michigan State appears destined to play in its first Rose Bowl since 1988, whether it wins the Big Ten championship or not. On the other side of the draw, the Cardinal seem poised to make their second consecutive appearance and 14th overall. Regardless of whom they play, their proximity to the Rose Bowl means that prices will stay high.

Fiesta Bowl (Big 12 vs. At-large)

The possibility that two lowest ranked teams will be squaring off at University of Phoenix Stadium means it’s the biggest question market on the BCS bowl calendar. With that uncertainty, Fiesta Bowl tickets dropped 5% from Friday night to Monday morning. The average ticket price on the secondary market is now $290. The Big 12 representative most likely be Oklahoma State, but there is still some uncertainty around what school the at-large bid would go to. Northern Illinois is a strong possibility to get the nod for its second consecutive BCS appearance.

Sugar Bowl (SEC vs. At-large)

Heading into the weekend, Auburn seemed to be a lock for the Sugar Bowl with Alabama headed to Pasadena for the National championship. If Ohio State beats Michigan State, that would still be the case and prices could rise for Sugar Bowl tickets given their proximity of Auburn to the Big Easy. While it would be a disappointment for Auburn fans to miss out on the BCS title game, a weekend in New Orleans would be a good reward for an amazing turn-around season.

If Auburn finds a way into the National Championship Game, Alabama would likely get the nod for the Sugar bowl. With a good chance that one Alabama team will play in the Sugar Bowl, the $310 average price is over double any of the previous three years. The next closest game was in 2011 and had an average price of $158 when Ohio State played Arkansas.

Orange Bowl (ACC vs. At-large)

Orange Bowl tickets were the only BCS bowl game tickets, outside of the National Championship Game, to have a price increase over the weekend. That could be due to the Orange Bowl now being the likely landing spot for Alabama. The Crimson Tide could be the at-large team to take on an ACC representative, possibly Clemson, in Miami.

For Alabama fans, it would be their second visit to Sun Life Stadium in two years. On the last visit, they left with their 15th National title. With the possibility of Bama retuning to Miami, the average ticket price rose from $205 to $218 over the weekend, an increase of 6%. Prior to this year, 2010 was the most expensive Orange Bowl when Georgia Tech went to its first Orange bowl since 1966. That year it cost an average of $241 to as Tech lost to the Iowa Hawkeyes. Over the previous three years, the average price has been $103.

Jesse Lawrence, who covers the business and emotion of the ticket market. is the CEO of TiqIQ.com, the leading ticket search engine online. 

Will Ohio State Get Jumped By SEC Champ?

Even before the latest BCS standings were released Sunday night, this burning question lit up Twitter and talk show phone lines alike: Will a one-loss SEC champion get past Ohio State in the final BCS standings without the Buckeyes losing in the Big Ten Championship Game?

The answer is, no - not at least without some sort of "conspiracy."

The Buckeyes ascended to No. 2 in the BCS standings after Alabama's dramatic and epic fall in the Iron Bowl. They have a solid, but not commanding, lead on No. 3 Auburn in the two polls and a firmer advantage in the computers. With a win over Michigan State next Saturday, Ohio State will maintain their No. 2 ranking in the polls, and that alone will be good enough to send it to Pasadena for the BCS title game.

Since the BCS tweaked its formula for the last time in 2004, every team that's finished either first or second in the two polls have played in the BCS title game, no matter what their computer rankings were. In five of the last six seasons, a team played in the BCS title game despite finishing third in the computers.

(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)

Alabama Is Not ... Quite ... Dead ... Yet

When Chris Davis ran back a missed Alabama field goal from under his goalposts all the way to the other end zone, he did his part to end the Tide's two-year reign as BCS champions. When Missouri defeated Texas A&M later, it's now nearly official.

Nearly.

Incredibly, Alabama is not quite finished as a contender for the 2013 BCS championship game. The Tide are projected to drop to No. 4 in the next BCS standings and in need of a semi-miracle to make it to Pasadena. But that path is not entirely closed.

This is what needs to happen: Both Florida State and Ohio State will have to lose their respective conference championship games, while Baylor and Oklahoma State will also have to lose their regular-season finales to hand the Big 12 title to 3-loss Texas. If all that takes place, then 'Bama might edge Michigan State for a second all-SEC BCS final in three years.

Projected BCS Standings:

1. Florida State, 2. Ohio State, 3. Auburn, 4. Alabama, 5. Missouri, 6. Oklahoma State, 7. Stanford, 8. Baylor, 9. South Carolina, 10. Michigan State.

11. Arizona State, 12. Oregon, 13. Clemson, 14. Northern Illinois, 15. LSU, 16. UCF, 17. Oklahoma, 18. UCLA, 19. Louisville, 20. Duke.

21. Wisconsin, 22. Fresno State, 23. Cincinnati, 24. Georgia, 25. Texas.

(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)

NIU vs. Fresno: BCS's Best Race in 2013

When the latest BCS standings were unveiled last Sunday, the biggest surprise didn't come anywhere near the top of the standings. Rather, it was the inexplicable jump by Northern Illinois, leapfrogging Fresno State for the first time since the official BCS standings were released more than a month ago.

To be sure, the Huskies didn't get any of their boost from the humans as they lost ground to the Bulldogs in both polls last week. But they made a quantum leap in the computer rankings, going from being ranked 12th the week before to seventh in the new standings.

That NIU made that big of a jump from a victory over Toledo—a solid MAC team but otherwise nothing special—is both surprising and alarming. Very rarely has there been that much of a gain in the computers by one team this late in the season, when computer rankings are less volatile. And most problematic is that this shift seems inexplicable.

To-date, Northern Illinois has played a schedule that's ranked 89th by Kenneth Massey (one of the six BCS computers) out of 125 FBS teams. That compares favorably to Fresno State's SoS of 108th, but not a schedule worthy of a top 10 ranking.

So how do you explain the inexplicable? You can't (that's why it's called "inexplicable").

(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)

Road to BCS Title Game for 9 Contenders

With just two weeks left in the 2013 regular season, the BCS title game matchup will be decided by a series of elimination games. Given the opponents and circumstances with these games, it's reasonable to deduce that at this point, only the three undefeated and up to six other one-loss BCS conference teams are still in the hunt.

So, in order of probability, these are the nine teams and what they must do to reach the BCS championship game (rankings in the latest BCS standings):

No. 2 Florida State (90%) - The Seminoles will be facing a toothless Florida team in disarray at the Swamp, and then the Coastal Division winner (Duke or Virginia Tech, most likely) in the ACC championship game. Even without quarterback Jameis Winston, whose legal status is up in the air, FSU will be double-digit favorites in both games. And if he does play, Winston has shown a Kobe-esque focus as he's performed even better with all the distractions.

No. 1 Alabama (75%) - Of the three undefeated teams, the two-time defending champion faces the toughest road to a third straight BCS title-game appearance. The Tide will have to win the Iron Bowl at one-loss Auburn and then defeat either Missouri or South Carolina in the SEC title game. Unlike in the past two seasons, there is no scenario that exists that would allow Alabama to lose one of those games and still back-door its way into the title game.

No. 3 Ohio State (18%) - The Buckeyes should have no trouble with a fast fading Michigan team, even at the Big House. A one-loss Michigan State will pose problems in the Big Ten title game and that's really the only game they'd be in danger of losing. But even if it goes 25-0 under Urban Meyer over two seasons, Ohio State will miss out on the BCS title game again without an Alabama or FSU loss. On the other hand, it will not be in danger of being jumped by any one-loss team.

(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)

Lots of Tigers Jockeying for BCS Position

And then there are three.

As another undefeated team bites the dust—this time it's Baylor getting blown out by Oklahoma State, 49-17—the BCS title game picture actually is becoming more and less clear at the same time. More clear because without question No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Florida State will face each other if they both win out. Less clear because if either team should lose, it can potentially bring a one-loss team back into the picture.

For now, Ohio State is projected to be a solid No. 3 in the next BCS standings and it's extremely unlikely that the Buckeyes will fall behind any one-loss team, even if that's a one-loss SEC champion Auburn or Missouri. They will be getting a major boost if Michigan State can defeat Minnesota next week and arrive at the Big Ten title game at 11-1 and ranked in the top 10.

But that's where the intrigue comes in. Michigan State has the potential to defeat Ohio State and if Alabama and/or FSU should stumble in the next two weeks, what then?

Projected BCS Standings:

1. Alabama, 2. Florida State, 3. Ohio State, 4. Auburn, 5. Clemson, 6. Missouri, 7. Oklahoma State, 8. Stanford, 9. South Carolina, 10. Michigan State.

11. Baylor, 12. Oregon, 13. Arizona State, 14. Wisconsin, 15. LSU, 16. Fresno State, 17. Northern Illinois, 18. Central Florida, 19. Louisville, 20. Oklahoma.

21. Texas A&M, 22. USC, 23. Duke, 24. UCLA, 25. Georgia.

(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)

Breaking Down All the Tiebreakers

If it's late November, it must be that time of the year. 'Tis the season of tiebreakers.

With three weeks remaining in the regular season (two in conferences holding title games), only one BCS conference team—Florida State—has clinched a division title. In the Big 12 and American Athletic, two conferences that do not have title games, the races for a BCS bowl berth are nowhere close to being settled, either.

So if you're not a lawyer and/or math is not your thing, you've come to the right place. We're going to break down the championship scenarios for each of the six BCS conferences right here:

American Athletic

There is no conference championship game, but, since each team only plays eight games within the 10-team league, potential gnarly scenarios can arise. And the worst part: It might come down to the placements in the BCS standings. Three teams are still in the hunt:

Central Florida (5-0): The Knights have the simplest path. They'll claim the school's first BCS berth if they win their remaining three games, or end up in a two-way tie with Louisville.

Louisville (5-1): Having lost to UCF, the Cardinals need the Knights to lose twice to have any shot at winning the AAC. Most likely they'll need to get into a three-way tie with UCF and Cincinnati and prevail by being the highest-ranked team in the BCS standings.

Cincinnati (5-1): The Bearcats will have to win their remaining games and hope either 1) UCF loses twice; or 2) UCF loses once and fall behind them in the BCS standings in case of a two-way tie.

(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)

Will Ohio State's Lead Over Baylor Last?

What does a lead of .0013 in the BCS standings mean?

That's the margin by which Ohio State kept the No. 3 spot in the latest BCS standings over Baylor—defying our projections, but just barely. As the 2013 regular season heads toward its final three weeks, the gaps between top teams will be closely scrutinized as they take on more meaning.

Ohio State's lead would've vanished had just three coaches (out of 62) switched their votes between OSU and Baylor, or six Harris voters (out of 105). In combination, had just four or five people (out of 167) changed their minds then the Bears would've been ahead of the Buckeyes.

Or, had the AP poll been part of the BCS instead of either the Coaches or Harris polls, Baylor would've been comfortably ahead at No. 3. The Bears jumped OSU in the AP poll after a come-from-behind 63-34 win over Texas Tech while the Buckeyes needed late scores to pull away from Illinois, 60-35.

It's just about certain that Baylor will be the No. 3 team in the next BCS standings if it can defeat No. 10 Oklahoma State next Saturday. The Bears will gain enough in the computers (a mere one-place improvement in one computer is all they need) to make up the .0013 deficit, but most likely they'll also pick up a few votes by defeating a Top 10 team.

(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)

Baylor to Jump Ohio State for No. 3

Ohio State's quest for a shot at the BCS title just got a little more difficult.

After a lackluster victory over lowly Illinois, in which the Buckeyes led by just 12 at one point in the fourth quarter, they will be passed by surging Baylor in the upcoming BCS standings. The Bears pulled away from Texas Tech in the second half, winning 63-34 in a game played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.

As a result, the Bears will gain enough in both the polls and computers to leapfrog the Buckeyes for the No. 3 spot. Alabama and Florida State will keep their tight grip on the top two spots, as both won without much of a struggle.

With Stanford's upset loss to USC, Oregon will be the highest-ranked one-loss team after regaining control of the Pac-12 North race. The Ducks should check in at No. 5, ahead of the other one-loss teams Clemson, Auburn and Missouri.

Projected BCS standings:

1. Alabama, 2. Florida State, 3. Baylor, 4. Ohio State, 5. Oregon, 6. Clemson, 7. Auburn, 8. Missouri, 9. Stanford, 10. Texas A&M.

11. South Carolina, 12. Oklahoma State, 13. UCLA, 14. Fresno State, 15. Northern Illinois, 16. Michigan State, 17. Central Florida, 18. Oklahoma, 19. Arizona State, 20. Louisville.

21. LSU, 22. Wisconsin, 23. Ole Miss, 24. Minnesota, 25. USC.

(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)

Voter Bias May Doom NIU's BCS Quest

Are the voters still holding last season's Orange Bowl against Northern Illinois?

That certainly appears to be the case. While the Huskies have continued their unbeaten run this season, their position in the polls seems to be stuck in neutral.

In contrast, their main competitor for the non-AQ BCS spot, Fresno State, has made much more significant gains in the polls. The Bulldogs now have a commanding lead in the latest BCS standings, even though at No. 14, they're just one spot ahead of Northern Illinois.

Fresno State's lead is built entirely on the polls, as the two teams—both 9-0—are in a dead heat in the computer rankings. But since the polls account for two thirds of the BCS standings, voter preference most likely will decide which team gets the coveted BCS bowl slot (and a bonus in excess of $10 million to that team's conference).

To qualify for the berth, likely in the Fiesta Bowl, Fresno or NIU must finish in the top 16 of the final BCS standings and ahead one of the current AQ conference champion, or in the top 12. And only the highest-ranked team will earn the BCS berth even if both meet the qualification.

Since the Harris Poll was released in Week 7, here's the progression of both teams in the two polls:

(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)

Three-Way BCS Race for No. 3

The race is on ... for No. 3.

After Oregon's loss to Stanford last Thursday, the ranks of major unbeatens shrunk to just four. And since Alabama and Florida State have a stranglehold on the top two spots in the latest BCS standings—they have all the No. 1 votes as well as either the first or second spots in all six computers—there is no chance for anyone else to catch up if they keep winning.

But if they slip up, then it gets interesting.

At the moment, Ohio State is maintaining its grip on the third spot. Despite the constant Big Ten-bashing by the pundits, it's actually very unlikely that the Buckeyes would surrender their position without losing a game. And with games against Illinois, Indiana and a fast-fading Michigan remaining on its regular-season schedule, Ohio State should get to the Big Ten Championship Game without a loss.

That's where OSU could need a little bit of help. If Michigan State defeats Nebraska next week and arrives at the B1G title game at 11-1, it'll likely be ranked in the top 10 and much-improved computer rankings. A Buckeyes victory over the Spartans then would just about cement their shot at the BCS title game if either Alabama or Florida State loses.

(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)

Alabama-Florida State Looks Pretty Inevitable

It certainly looks like Alabama-Florida State now.

After Stanford's stunning upset (more in scope than the act) of Oregon on Thursday night, the BCS picture began to emerge with some clarity. After Alabama's convincing victory over LSU on Saturday, it looks like a Crimson Tide-Seminoles showdown in Pasadena is all but becoming inevitable.

Granted, each team will still have three regular-season games and a conference championship game remaining, but they'll be favored by double digits in each game. In the BCS standings coming out on Sunday, Alabama and FSU will open a wide gap on the No. 3 team and everybody else below that.

Ohio State is expected to move into the No. 3 spot, though its hold on that position will be tenuous. Stanford is projected to emerge ahead of Baylor at No. 4, despite being ranked lower in the polls.

The rankings from 3-5 should remain fluid for the remainder of the season, with Ohio State having the best chance at staying unbeaten. But thanks to the weakness of the Big Ten, the Buckeyes will not automatically slide into the top spot should either Alabama or FSU slip up.

Projected BCS Standings:

1. Alabama, 2. Florida State, 3. Ohio State, 4. Stanford, 5. Baylor, 6. Oregon, 7. Clemson, 8. Missouri, 9. Auburn, 10. South Carolina.

11. Oklahoma State, 12. Texas A&M, 13. Oklahoma, 14. Michigan State, 15. Fresno State, 16. UCLA, 17. Louisville, 18. Northern Illinois, 19. Central Florida, 20. Miami (Fla.).

21. Arizona State, 22. LSU, 23. Georgia, 24. Wisconsin, 25. Texas.

(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)

Big Thursday Night Shakes Up BCS

For the third time in five years, Stanford stunned an Oregon team with national championship aspirations. And for the second consecutive year, the Cardinal might have knocked the Ducks out of a Rose Bowl berth as well.

Stanford's upset victory, coupled with Baylor's pasting of Oklahoma in a pair of Thursday night top-10 showdowns, sent a shock wave through the top of the BCS even before the weekend begins. And they might have to cancel classes in Tallahassee and Columbus on Friday.

This much is clear: Alabama and Florida State, atop the BCS standings as of last week, will control their respective destinies. If either team wins out, it'll be playing in Pasadena on Jan. 6. Then after that, it gets a bit messy.

Ohio State is expected to move up to No. 3, but it can't comfortably count on being there as if it's in the on-deck circle, waiting for an Alabama or FSU loss to move into the BCS title game. There is a possibility that the Buckeyes might get jumped by Baylor, though it's a small one.

(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)

Running Up Score Not Helping Ohio State

In the last two weeks, Ohio State has outscored its two hapless Big Ten opponents, 119-14. Did that improve its prospects of landing in the BCS Championship Game?

In a word: No. In fact, Ohio State's blowout wins have hurt more than helped.

Granted, Urban Meyer is in an unenviable position. He's damned if he does and he's damned if he doesn't. The Ohio State coach is staring at a distinct possibility of going 25-0 over two seasons without being able to play for the national championship in either. The fourth-ranked Buckeyes have four games remaining, with three for certain against unranked and uninspiring opponents.

But if Meyer was running up the score with the intention of helping his team's BCS cause, he was going about it the wrong way. He should've first consulted the following manual (the Cliff Notes version of Manipulate the Scores for Dummies):

1. Computers won't be impressed by inflated scores because ...

in 2002, the BCS decreed that margin of victory (MOV) be removed entirely as a component in the BCS computer rankings. Since the BCS never checks, we don't know if this is done for certain, but anecdotal evidence suggests that the computer operators have held up their end of the bargain. Since a 31-point victory is worth exactly the same as a 1-point victory in the "eyes" of the computers, running up the score has no impact on the computer rankings.

(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)

Math Not There for FSU to Get By Oregon

For a third straight week, the No. 2 ranking in the BCS standings changes hands, with Florida State narrowly edging Oregon for the spot behind Alabama.

But just like two weeks ago, the Seminoles' stay at No. 2 will be short-lived—if Oregon wins its Thursday night showdown against No. 5 Stanford. And should the Ducks stay unbeaten, they will be pulling away from the Seminoles in the standings the rest of the season, no matter what else happens.

The math just isn't there for Florida State.

FSU has now defeated two unbeaten top 10 teams in three weeks, and gained possibly everything it could from the voters and the computers. The Seminoles are the top-ranked team by the computers this week, with five No. 1s out of the six BCS computers. They also cut into the vote shares of Alabama and Oregon in both polls, even picking up five first-place votes (where they had none last week).

Yet, even with all those gains, Florida State will not get into the BCS title game without either an Alabama or an Oregon loss. Here's the story behind the math:

(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)

FSU Closing In on Oregon, But It'll Be Short-Lived

Half of the top 10 teams in last week's BCS standings were idle this week, and other than Texas Tech losing in a mild upset, it was a weekend of mostly ho-hum affairs.

(Thank you, Northwestern, for making a complete hash out of your last defensive stand so we could have our YouTube and gif fix for the day, though.)

Florida State won the day's most high-profile showdown, a 41-14 victory over No. 7 Miami. But the Seminoles were favored by three touchdowns so even an impressive win over their intrastate rival might not be enough for them to get into the all-important top two spots in the next BCS standings.

The Noles will close the gap on Oregon and make it very close for the No. 2 spot, thanks to the boost they'll get from the computers. Florida State probably will check in at No. 1 in five of the six BCS computers, with Richard Billingsley the exception. The Noles will need to sway about a dozen voters or so in the two polls to pull ahead of the Ducks for the week.

But even if they move into No. 2 in the next standings, they'll stay there for exactly one week if both Oregon and Alabama win their upcoming showdowns next week. Should the Tide and Ducks go on to beat LSU and Stanford, respectively, and run the table after that, FSU will have reached its high-water mark as it won't have another game that will provide much boost the rest of the season, and that includes the ACC Championship Game.

So with the exception of Miami, the projected BCS standings will look very similar to last week's:

Projected BCS Standings:

1. Alabama, 2. Oregon, 3. Florida State, 4. Ohio State, 5. Stanford, 6. Baylor, 7. Clemson, 8. Missouri, 9. Oklahoma, 10. Auburn.

11. Miami (Fla.), 12. LSU, 13. South Carolina, 14. Texas A&M, 15. Oklahoma State, 16. Fresno State, 17. Northern Illinois, 18. UCLA, 19. Louisville, 20. Michigan State.

21. Central Florida, 22. Texas Tech, 23. Notre Dame, 24. Arizona State, 25. Wisconsin.

(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)

BCS Has Computer Issues, But So What?

We're having a near full-scale computer meltdown in this, the final year of the BCS era.

Two weeks ago, Jeff Sagarin, the operator of one of the six BCS computers, unveiled a new rankings system dubbed "Pure Elo" to replace the "Elo Chess" system that had been in use by the BCS since 2002. While the new system was supposed to be an improvement, it was immediately engulfed in controversy.

Why? Because in the first appearance of "Pure Elo," Bethune-Cookman was ranked No. 4, Fordham 7th and Coastal Carolina 10th. In all, seven FCS teams were ranked in the top 25, and Harvard was ranked ahead of Notre Dame.

A week later, Sagarin quietly retweaked the formula and the FCS teams tumbled down the rankings. I have asked Jeff for an explanation, as have others. So far, none of us have heard back.

Why is Sagarin tinkering with the formula in the final season of the BCS? Next year, the standings will be going away and the computer rankings will have no real influence on the new College Football Playoff except being used as a reference tool.

(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)