BCS Review Series: 2009, Separate and Decidedly Unequal

Part 12 of a series: Over the next few weeks, I will be reviewing each of the 16 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. Here is a look back at who got lucky, who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear throughout December and January.

Part 1: 1998, A New Beginning for College Football

Part 2: 1999, FSU Ends Michael Vick's Quest for Perfection

Part 3: 2000, FSU-Miami Sows Seeds of Controversy

Part 4: 2001, Nebraska Fiasco Rocks College Football

Part 5: 2002, Controversy On-Field Mars Perfect Ending

Part 6: 2003, Nightmare of Split National Championship

Part 7: 2004, Unbeaten Auburn Left Out in the Cold

Part 8: 2005, Perfect Season Ends With Epic at Rose Bowl

Part 9: 2006, Dawn of SEC's Reign in College Football

Part 10: 2007, LSU Goes "Undefeated in Regulation"

Part 11: 2008, SEC Wins in Polls, Then on the Field

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Every second counted in the 2009 season, especially for Texas.

While Colt McCoy vainly ran around as the clock ticked down in the Big 12 championship game, it looked as if the Longhorns were about to throw away their shot at a second BCS title. McCoy did finally throw the ball away, but not before the Cowboys Stadium scoreboard timer read 0:00.

Or did it?

Instead of running off the field, the officiating crew immediately conferred and decided to put one second back on the clock. That was just enough time for Texas' Hunter Lawrence to kick a 46-yard field goal on the game's final play, much to the relief of the Big 12 and BCS brass. Now they could have the dream matchup of unbeaten Alabama and Texas playing for the title at the Rose Bowl.



Among those crying foul weren't just the Cornhuskers, whose defense, led by the indomitable Ndumakong Suh, sacked McCoy nine times and intercepted him three times. Cincinnati, TCU and Boise State were all also undefeated, but none of them would get a chance to play for the national championship. The Broncos, in fact, were staring at the prospect of going undefeated for a second consecutive regular season and still missing out on a BCS bowl berth.

Fearful of a public outcry and renewed interest by the Justice Department to investigate its setup, the BCS swallowed hard and decided to take both TCU and Boise State—and this was tremendously helped by the fact that, outside of the Big Ten and SEC, none of the major conferences had an at-large candidate with fewer than three losses. (For the first time since 1983, every conference produced an outright champion.)

The 2009 season marked the end of one dynasty and the beginning of another. After going to a record seven straight BCS bowl games, including consecutive title games in 2004-05, USC slumped to 9-4 and failed to win the Pac-10 for the first time since 2001. The Trojans held off Boston College in the Emerald Bowl, which, as it turned out, was the final game for coach Pete Carroll, who returned to the NFL with the Seattle Seahawks two weeks later.

Alabama, now in its third season under Nick Saban, first avenged its SEC title game loss by walloping Florida in a rematch, denying Tim Tebow and his team's quest to win back-to-back BCS championships. The Tide went on to claim the first of three BCS titles in four years, knocking out McCoy early in the game and then forcing a pair of turnovers late after Texas had closed to within three to seal the victory.

Final BCS Standings: 1. Alabama, 2. Texas, 3. Cincinnati, 4. TCU, 5. Florida, 6. Boise State.

Likely four-team playoff: Alabama vs. TCU; Texas vs. Cincinnati.
Unfortunately, Boise State would've been left out in a four-team scenario, even though the Broncos defeated the Horned Frogs in the Fiesta Bowl post hoc. TCU had a slightly better resume during the season.

Controversies

Who's the real No. 2?: Texas' one-second reprieve cost Cincinnati a chance for its first shot at a national championship. The Bearcats actually had better computer rankings and had beaten three ranked teams (to Texas' two) during the season.

But because Texas was ranked no worse than third all season in the polls, Cincinnati was never able to close the gap in the component that made up two-thirds of the BCS standings. Even TCU might've had a case, having beaten a pair of teams in the top 16 with the country's top-ranked defense and fourth-ranked offense.

Separate-But-Equal Bowl: Instead of allowing Boise State and TCU to each face off against major conference champions, it was decided that the Fiesta Bowl would "take one for the team" and match up those two upstarts—or so the allegation went, though it was denied by then-Fiesta Bowl boss John Junker as "a load of crap."

The game was a rematch of the previous season's Poinsettia Bowl in which TCU won 17-16. This time, Boise State prevailed, 17-10, in a hard-hitting contest between two bona fide quality teams. Denying these teams a chance to face a BCS conference team was widely viewed as a conspiracy and brought anew calls to alter BCS's arrangement of granting automatic berths to underperforming major conferences, or at the very least, review the automatic qualifying protocol.

2009 BCS Bowl Matchups

Bowl	Score	Attendance	TV Rating
BCS Champ*	#1 Alabama 37, #2 Texas 21	94,906	17.2
Rose Bowl	#8 Ohio St. 26, #7 Oregon 17	93,963	13.2
Sugar Bowl	#5 Florida 51, #3 Cincinnati 24	65,207	8.5
Fiesta Bowl	#6 Boise St. 17, #4 TCU 10	73,227	8.2
Orange Bowl	#10 Iowa 24, #9 Ga. Tech 14	66,131	6.8

Final analysis: The Fiesta Bowl, also derisively called the "Quarantine Bowl", the "Fiasco Bowl" and the "BCS Kids' Table," was a real PR disaster for the BCS. It was the first time two undefeated teams faced off in a non-championship game in the BCS era, yet neither team had any chance of winning the title.

Beyond that, the gulf in payouts between major conferences and the so-called non-AQ conference remained enormous. Even by placing teams in BCS bowls, the Mountain West Conference and Western Athletic Conference combined to earn less than any of the "Big Six" conferences banked. Both of the competitive and monetary inequities would remain unaddressed, and the criticism reached a crescendo with the publication of the bestseller "Death to the BCS" a few months later.

The Guru's BlogPoll (Week 11)

The Guru's BlogPoll ballot, with notes below:

BCS Guru Ballot - Week 11

Rank	Team	Delta
1	LSU Tigers	--
2	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	2
3	Alabama Crimson Tide	2
4	Oregon Ducks	2
5	Arkansas Razorbacks	2
6	Stanford Cardinal	-4
7	Houston Cougars	1
8	Boise St. Broncos	-5
9	Clemson Tigers	1
10	Virginia Tech Hokies	1
11	Oklahoma Sooners	-2
12	Kansas St. Wildcats	1
13	South Carolina Gamecocks	1
14	Georgia Bulldogs	1
15	Michigan St. Spartans	1
16	Wisconsin Badgers	1
17	Nebraska Cornhuskers	1
18	Penn St. Nittany Lions	-6
19	Michigan Wolverines	--
20	USC Trojans	--
21	TCU Horned Frogs	4
22	Southern Miss Golden Eagles	--
23	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	--
24	Florida St. Seminoles	--
25	Cincinnati Bearcats	-4
Dropouts: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Texas Longhorns

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

* Both Stanford and Boise State too their obligatory drops after losing on Saturday, but I cut Stanford a bit more slack because of the competition. Keep in mind that Arkansas lost by 24 points to Alabama and yet is still in the top five. Stanford lost by 23 to Oregon.

* Houston gets a slight bump but the Cougars will now be tested, going into the toughest part of their schedule with games against SMU (which beat TCU) and Tulsa (whose only losses were to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Boise State) left. A sweep of those games will land Houston in the C-USA title game against potentially 11-1 Southern Miss. The Cougs have a lot of work to do to stay unbeaten.

* Oklahoma was idle but dropped two spots. Of all the teams in the top 10, the Sooners by far have the worst loss. They were beaten by a Texas Tech team (in a game that actually wasn't that close) that went on to lose by an average of 42 points in its next three games. That really can't be so easily overlooked.

* Cincinnati remains the only Big East team on the ballot. But with the season-ending injury to QB Zach Collaros, it's only a matter of time before the Bearcats take a dive.

* New teams that made the ballot this week: Notre Dame, Florida State.

* Conference-by-conference tally: SEC (5), Big Ten (5), Big 12 (3), Pac-12 (3), ACC (3), C-USA (2), MWC (2), Big East (1), Independent (1).

'Bama-Texas, Ho-Hum

A dropped hold on a PAT. An errant kickoff out of bounds.

Two plays, they're all that kept a non-BCS team from crashing the BCS title game party for the first time.

But it wasn't to be. Pittsburgh's dropped PAT attempt allowed Cincinnati to escape with a 45-44 victory. Hours later, Texas squeezed by Nebraska with a 13-12 victory, in large part thanks to the kickoff that went out of bounds following the Huskers' go-ahead field goal.

So the BCS conferences can breathe a sigh of relief. Alabama will face Texas in Pasadena for the BCS national championship. TCU, Boise State and Big East's Cincinnati will be left to fight over the scraps.

For what it's worth, the Bearcats will edge the Horned Frogs for the third spot. And had Hunter Lawrence missed his 46-yard field goal as time expired, Cincinnati would've been the team in Pasadena.

Boise State, on the other hand, should be sending some roses to Mr. Lawrence. Texas' victory just about assured the Broncos' safe passage to their second BCS bowl appearance in four years.

The BCS bowl matchups:

BCS national championship game: Alabama vs. Texas
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Cincinnati
Fiesta Bowl: Iowa vs. Boise State
Orange Bowl: TCU vs. Georgia Tech
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Ohio State

Projected Final BCS Standings: 1. Alabama (expected to score a perfect 1.000 in the BCS ratings), 2. Texas, 3. Cincinnati, 4. TCU, 5. Boise State, 6. Florida, 7. Oregon, 8. Ohio State, 9. Iowa, 10. Georgia Tech, 11. Penn State, 12. Virginia Tech, 13. LSU, 14. BYU, 15. Miami (Fla.).

The Next Conspiracy

Oklahoma State was exposed as unworthy of a BCS bowl bid. So Boise State is in, right?

With apologies to Lee Corso ... not so fast, my friend!

There is still one scenario where the Broncos would be left out of a BCS bowl bid - if Texas loses to Nebraska in the Big 12 title game, then the Longhorns will gain the final at-large bid over the Broncos. At this point, with six unbeatens and no one-loss teams, it's unlikely that any two-loss team will be chosen over Boise State for the final at-large spot.

But the next conspiracy, if you want to call it that, is on the horizon. With potentially five unbeaten teams heading into the BCS bowls, conveniently only the BCS title game will pit two undefeated teams, denying a claim for a "people's champion." In fact, two of the other three likely unbeatens will be facing a team with at least two losses in BCS bowl games.

This is how the bowl picture will shake out should Texas as expected meets the SEC champion:

BCS Championship Game: Florida/Alabama winner vs. Texas
Sugar Bowl: Florida/Alabama loser vs. Cincinnati/Pittsburgh winner
Fiesta Bowl: Iowa or Penn State vs. Boise State
Orange Bowl: TCU vs. Georgia Tech/Clemson winner
Rose Bowl: Oregon/Oregon State winner vs. Ohio State

If Texas loses to Nebraska:

BCS Championship Game: Florida/Alabama winner vs. Cincinnati or TCU
Sugar Bowl: Florida/Alabama loser vs. TCU or Pittsburgh
Fiesta Bowl: Iowa or Penn State vs. Nebraska
Orange Bowl: Texas vs. Georgia Tech/Clemson winner
Rose Bowl: Oregon/Oregon State winner vs. Ohio State

TCU's blowout victory cemented its claim to be the first team to finish the regular season undefeated, but it came with a price. Because New Mexico is so terrible, the Horned Frogs will take a hit in the computer ratings, so much so that it may cost them a spot in the next BCS standings. It will be close, but the Guru expects Cincinnati to jump TCU for No. 4.

The projected BCS standings:

1. Florida, 2. Alabama, 3. Texas, 4. Cincinnati, 5. TCU, 6. Boise Sate, 7. Oregon, 8. Ohio State, 9. Iowa, 10. Penn State, 11. Georgia Tech, 12. Virginia Tech, 13. Pittsburgh, 14. LSU, 15. BYU.

The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 12)

The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot, with comments below:

(And no, your eyes are not doing tricks on you. It does say No. 1 TCU.)

Rank	Team	Delta
1	TCU	2
2	Cincinnati	4
3	Boise State	2
4	Alabama	2
5	Texas	4
6	Florida	2
7	Georgia Tech	1
8	Pittsburgh	1
9	Oregon
10	Ohio State
11	Iowa	1
12	Penn State	1
13	Brigham Young	1
14	Utah	2
15	Houston	2
16	Oklahoma State	2
17	LSU	6
18	USC	4
19	Oregon State	4
20	Clemson	4
21	North Carolina
22	Virginia Tech
23	Miami (Florida)
24	Temple
25	Navy
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Wisconsin (#15), Rutgers (#19), Arizona (#20), Stanford (#21).

With more than a dozen teams already finished their respective schedules, it's appropriate to look at the ballot in the totality with respect to the season. After taking a good look at the credentials of the teams at the top, I came to one inescapable conclusion:

TCU should be No. 1.

Why not? The Horned Frogs are the only teams in the nation ranked in the top five in total offense (fifth) and total defense (fourth). They're the only team among the unbeatens to have defeated three ranked teams (Clemson, Utah, BYU), and by a combined score of 107-45. Two of those wins were on the road. And one is over potentially the champion of another BCS conference.

That should be the barometer, going down the line. Have you beaten the champion or runnerup of another BCS conference? For both Cincinnati and Boise State, that's in the affirmative. The Bearcats won at Oregon State while the Broncos beat Oregon. The Civil War will decide the champion of the Pac-10, the best conference in college football (I'm not going to belabor this point). Cincy's road win nudges it ahead of Boise.

And then you have the big three that have dominated the top of the traditional polls for much of the season. But take a closer look, what have they done, really, to deserve their perch?

The answer: Not much.

Alabama is the best of the trio, having beaten Virginia Tech, a ranked team but not good enough to play for the ACC championship. The Tide have also won the SEC West, which is considerably better than the SEC East this year, with wins over LSU and Ole Miss.

Texas is next, and its only victory of note is over Oklahoma State, the second best team in the Big 12, which isn't saying much this season. Florida checks in at No. 6. Let's face it, the Gators beat LSU - the only ranked team on their schedule - and their next best win was over ... Troy?

Thanks to Clemson's resurgence, Georgia Tech is moving up as the best 1-loss team in the nation - though now it must beat the Tigers again in the ACC championship game. Oregon, without a doubt, is the best two-loss team and checks in at No. 9.

The rest of the ballot is pretty standard fare. Each 2-loss team made the list, along with the best of the 3-loss teams. The team that won the head-to-head battle against another that has the same record, naturally gets the consideration.

One last word, on Temple. This team went 4-42 between 2003-2006 and got kicked out the Big East. Today, as a member of the MAC, the Owls have finally ended two decades of futility by recording their first winning season since 1990 and will play for the conference title against Central Michigan. They make my ballot for the first time, at No. 24, thanks to a victory at No. 25 Navy.

Might TCU Get to Play for BCS Title?

As we get closer to the finish line, it seems like amateur hour all over the web. All sorts of people who have as strong a grasp on college football as they do on grammar are coming out with incredibly nonsensical scenarios.

At the risk of spreading baseless speculations, take a look at this one:

National Championship - TCU vs. Boise State

Rose Bowl - Oregon State vs. Wisconsin

Orange Bowl - Pittsburgh vs. Duke

Sugar Bowl - LSU vs. Georgia Tech

Fiesta Bowl - Kansas State vs. Alabama

First of all, Wisconsin cannot win the Big Ten. It's not unlikely, but impossible, per the Big Ten's tiebreaker rules. And if Alabama wins the SEC championship, even with one loss, it's guaranteed to play in the Sugar Bowl. Furthermore, since in this scenario the Orange Bowl has the first pick, there is no way on God's green earth it'd take the Big East champion over all other qualifiers.

So, Sean, please go back and study up a little more before you venture into something that's slightly above your pay grade.

The only item in this juvenile fantasy that's not a mathematical or procedural impossibility is the first one - a BCS national championship game between TCU and Boise State.

It's highly improbable, but not impossible. In addition, the chances of having TCU in the title game - as the first non-BCS conference member - are better than you think. Here's what will need to happen:

a) Texas loses one of its four remaining games
b) Florida loses one of its remaining regular-season games and then beats Alabama in the SEC title game
c) Cincinnati loses one of its remaining three games

If at least two of the above scenarios occur, plus TCU wins its last three games, then voila!, you'll have Horned Frogs kissing Rose princesses (maybe even the queen) in Pasadena right after New Year's Day.

What about Boise State? You ask.

No chance, because there is just about zero possibility of the Broncos jumping TCU if both teams win out.

What about an SEC rematch in the national title game?

That's a longshot, and only would happen if Alabama wins the SEC championship. The Gators are done if they drop one of their remaining regular-season games because they'll get massacred by the computers for their weak schedule.

Why does Cincinnati have to lose?

Because the Bearcats are almost certain to jump TCU if both teams win out. Cincinnati's remaining schedule will be much more to the computers' liking, not to mention the voters'.

Does Boise State have any shot to make the TCU-Boise title game a reality?

Yes, but the odds on that are longer than having Sarah Palin (an Idaho native, by the way) as our next president. Even if every team ahead of Boise State loses a game, the Broncos may still be behind a couple of one-loss teams in the BCS standings. Right now, their primary concern is trying to stay out a second consecutive Poinsettia Bowl.

★★★★★ GAME OF THE WEEK: Utah at TCU, 7:30 p.m. ET (CBS College Sports). Without a doubt, this is the biggest game in TCU history (ah, don't give me the Sammy Baugh bullcrap, were you alive back then?). But unfortunately, it will be seen by only about a third of the nation's cable audience. This is the moment where TCU (and perhaps the whole of the Mountain West) might be able to cross the Rubicon and become a real player in the BCS. A Horned Frogs victory all but locks up a BCS bowl berth, perhaps more.

★★★★ FOUR-STAR GAME: Iowa at Ohio State, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC). The winner of this game will go to Pasadena. For the Buckeyes, it'll be their first in the Jim Tressel era - and the first since 1996. The Hawkeyes will be the prohibitive underdog now that Ricky Stanzi is out, but an upset will give them their first Rose Bowl berth since 1990. The loser may be out of a BCS bowl altogether.

★★★ THREE-STAR GAME: Notre Dame at Pittsburgh, 8 p.m. ET (ABC). The Irish are reduced to playing for a Gator Bowl berth and perhaps saving Charlie Weis' job. For Pitt, while this game has no implication for the Big East's BCS bowl berth, a lot of national prestige will be on the line. The Panthers need to handle Notre Dame to justify their lofty ranking in the BCS standings.

★★ TWO-STAR GAME: Stanford at USC, 3:30 p.m. ET (FSN). Do you know Stanford is the only team to have beaten USC twice at the Coliseum in the Pete Carroll era? The last time these two met in L.A., the 41-point underdog Cardinal scored a 24-23 shocking upset that ended the Trojans' quest for the 2007 national championship. These two teams will be much more evenly matched up this time around. The spread, in fact, is only 10 1/2.

★ ONE-STAR GAME: Florida at South Carolina, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS). The Ol' Ball Coach beat his alma mater (and Urban Meyer) in his first season with the Gamecocks, but has lost the last three, including two humiliating defeats the last two years in which the Gators ran up over 100 points. Steve Spurrier will try to make a better go at it this time around, but an upset is probably out of the question. (The SEC refs will make sure of it ... Sorry, Mike Slive, I didn't mean it.)

The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 10)

The Guru's Blogpoll ballot, with notes below:

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Texas
2	Alabama
3	Florida
4	TCU	2
5	Boise State	1
6	Cincinnati	1
7	Pittsburgh	6
8	Georgia Tech	2
9	LSU	1
10	Oregon	5
11	USC	1
12	Ohio State	4
13	Utah	1
14	Iowa	5
15	Houston
16	Arizona	2
17	Miami (Florida)	3
18	Penn State	7
19	South Florida	2
20	Oklahoma State	2
21	Brigham Young	2
22	West Virginia	2
23	Wisconsin
24	Oregon State
25	Navy
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: California (#17), Notre Dame (#19), Oklahoma (#25).

* The top of my ballot is taking shape and this feel about right. Texas is playing a bit better than the two SEC heavyweights, but not by much. TCU is the best team among the other three unbeatens, just slightly ahead of Boise. The Broncos have a better victory - over Oregon - but really didn't have another win to validate it. Should the Horned Frogs beat Utah next week, they'll be even more entrenched in that position.

* Cincinnati can still move up, though I have the Bearcats at No. 6 right now. Should they defeat both West Virginia and Pittsburgh, then they would warrant another look. As it is, their signature victory - at Oregon State - isn't quite as impressive as TCU's and Boise's.

* To me, LSU-Oregon-USC-Ohio State, in that order, among 2-loss teams, is quite reasonable. It boggles my mind that voters in the other polls have such amnesia. Wasn't it just last week that Oregon whupped USC? And didn't the Trojans outlast Ohio State at Columbus? LSU's two losses were the best ones among the bunch, that's why the Tigers are ahead of the others.

* Every 2-loss team in the BCS conferences are on the ballot, except Rutgers, whose resume just isn't there. The best 3-loss team is on the ballot: Oregon State, with close losses to Cincinnati, USC and Arizona.

* The least logical placement is probably Navy at No. 25. But it's not that much of a stretch. The Midshipmen lost close games to Ohio State, Pittsburgh and vastly improved Temple, and beat Air Force, Wake Forest and now Notre Dame (not to mention Adm. Isoroku Yamamoto's Imperial Japanese Navy). What else can you say? Anchors Aweigh!

(Even if you're a Notre Dame fan, you can't possibly be too mad about this)