BCS Review Series: 2004, Unbeaten Auburn Left in the Cold

Part 7 of a series: Over the next few weeks, I will be reviewing each of the 16 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. Here is a look back at who got lucky, who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear throughout December and January.

Part 1: 1998, A New Beginning for College Football

Part 2: 1999, FSU Ends Michael Vick's Quest for Perfection

Part 3: 2000, FSU-Miami Sows Seeds of Controversy

Part 4: 2001, Nebraska Fiasco Rocks College Football

Part 5: 2002, Controversy On-Field Mars Perfect Ending

Part 6: 2003, Nightmare of Split National Championship

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If 2003 was a wakeup call for the BCS, then 2004 represented a broken snooze button.

The alarm just kept blaring.

Five teams went undefeated in the regular season, but in the end, USC and Oklahoma faced off for the BCS title while SEC champion Auburn was left with a consolation prize of appearing in the Sugar Bowl. Mountain West champion Utah did get a BCS berth, but its opponent—Pittsburgh—was so overmatched in the Fiesta Bowl that the Utes didn't get to prove their mettle either. WAC champion Boise State was left out of the BCS picture altogether.

There was no split championship in 2004, as there had been in 2003, mostly because the Trojans mauled the Sooners, 55-19. Even Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville, who was on hand to troll for AP votes, conceded during ABC's halftime show that USC would be difficult to beat "when you give (offensive coordinator) Norm Chow a month to get ready for somebody."

But that was hardly a happy ending for the BCS, which had completely overhauled its formula from the previous season.

In fact, the BCS formula, in retrospect, may be viewed in two phases.

BCS I ran from its inception in 1998 through the disastrous 2003 season that ended with a split national championship. While there had been alterations, they were mostly minor. BCS II emerged in the 2004 season, with human polls taking over the preponderance of the equation.

Ironically, BCS I and BCS II both would've yielded the same USC-Oklahoma result in 2004, leaving Auburn and Utah out of the title game. It's fairly easy to explain why both Utah and Boise State were left out. The non-BCS conferences are not respected by the voters, even if the computers treat them more fairly. The Mountain West in 2004 also was not a particularly solid conference, with only three teams finishing with winning records, as both New Mexico and Wyoming went 7-5.

The last non-BCS school to win a national championship was Brigham Young in 1984, and it likely will remain the last well after this country elects a woman president, and possibly into eternity.
As for Auburn, two factors proved fatal to its BCS title prospects.

First, the Tigers were lightly regarded before the season started, checking in at No. 17 in the preseason AP poll. Auburn eventually worked its way up to No. 3, but could never crack the stranglehold that USC and Oklahoma held on Nos. 1 and 2—going wire-to-wire atop the AP poll.

The second factor was that the Tigers played an extremely non-competitive non-conference schedule, just as LSU did in 2003, along with most of the other SEC teams.

Of Auburn's 11 regular-season games in 2004, seven were at home. The Tigers' three non-conference games were against Louisiana-Monroe, Louisiana Tech and I-AA Citadel—all at home. Compare that with USC (at Virginia Tech and BYU, home to Colorado State and Notre Dame) and Oklahoma (home against Bowling Green, Houston and Oregon), it's easy to see that both the voters and computers punished Auburn for its soft schedule.

The Tigers eked out a 16-13 win over Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl to finish second in the final AP and coaches polls. But that didn't stop Tuberville and Auburn from declaring themselves champions. The Tigers made themselves big diamond rings to commemorate their "championship" season, and those rings became available on eBay.

Final BCS Standings: 1. USC, 2. Oklahoma, 3. Auburn, 4. Texas, 5. California, 6. Utah.


Alternative Methods

Using 1998-2003 (BCS I) formula: 1. USC, 2. Oklahoma, 3. Auburn, 4. Texas.

Likely four-team playoff: USC vs. Utah; Oklahoma vs. Auburn.

Since neither California nor Texas won its respective conference, Urban Meyer's undefeated Utes would have completed the field composed entirely of teams without a loss—the only time that could've happened in the BCS era.


Controversies

The Mack Brown Campaign: In 2003, Texas finished No. 5 in the BCS standings, but was relegated to the Holiday Bowl. The Longhorns seemed to be headed to San Diego again in 2004 before coach Mack Brown did something about that.

With undefeated Utah poised to become the first BCS buster, there was only one BCS bowl slot available to a non-conference champion. Since the No. 4 team was guaranteed an at-large spot, the race was on between Texas and California.

The Golden Bears had a tenuous hold on the fourth spot beginning in October, with their only loss all season coming in a 23-17 heartbreaker to USC at the L.A. Coliseum when Aaron Rodgers couldn't get the ball into the end zone from the 9-yard line in the game's waning moments. Texas's only loss was a 12-0 defeat at the Cotton Bowl against the Sooners.

After Cal routed archrival Stanford in the Big Game, its season should've been over, but once again, a hurricane proved to be a Pac-10 team's undoing, as it had in 1998. The Bears' Sept. 23 game at Southern Mississippi was postponed because of Hurricane Ivan, and was rescheduled for Dec. 4.

Texas finished its schedule on Nov. 26 after beating rival Texas A&M. Brown immediately started an endless media campaign on behalf of his No. 5-ranked Longhorns. His tactics also made the Cal-Southern Miss matchup something of a referendum on the Bears, whose game was nationally televised on ESPN.

Perhaps affected by the pressure and expectations, the Bears did not play an impressive game, but still won, 26-16. While Cal coach Jeff Tedford thought his team had done what it needed to secure the program's first Rose Bowl berth since 1959, others weren't so sure.

The Bears' worst fears were realized when they fell from No. 4 to No. 5 in the final BCS standings, as Texas snatched the coveted Rose Bowl berth. Voter defection carried the day. In the AP poll, Cal's advantage over Texas shrank from 85 points to 62.

The real story, however, was the coaches poll. In the penultimate standings, Cal held a 48-point lead over Texas. In the one that counted, it finished ahead by a mere five points. In other words, no fewer than 20 coaches switched their placements of Texas and Cal. Even more telling was that four coaches voted Cal No. 7 and two voted them No. 8—after a Bears victory, and behind a Georgia team with two losses.

Predictably, the Pac-10 was furious and demanded that the coaches disclose their final ballots. The AFCA refused, however, and disputed suggestions that impropriety had taken place behind a cloak of secrecy. The Longhorns went on to win the Rose Bowl behind the electrifying performance of sophomore quarterback Vince Young while the dispirited Bears were routed by Texas Tech in the Holiday Bowl.

The Texas-California controversy had a long-lasting effect on the BCS standings. First, the AP poll refused to be included in the BCS standings after the 2004 season. Because all AP poll balloting is available to the public, some AP voters were harassed and threatened by fans who were unhappy with their decisions. The BCS had to scramble and invent the "Harris Interactive Poll" to replace the venerable and prestigious AP poll in the standings.

Second, to promote more transparency, the coaches reluctantly agreed to reveal their final regular-season balloting, beginning in 2005.

Through it all, Tedford took the high road. He didn't try to score an extra touchdown against Southern Miss in the game's final minutes to curry favor with the voters and never indulged in a war of words with Brown or anyone else. The final irony was that the AP poll's flip-flops alone would've put Texas ahead of Cal in the final standings, but the coaches ended up catching most of the heat because of their shenanigans.

2004 BCS Bowl Matchups

Bowl	Score	Attendance	TV Rating
Orange Bowl*	#1 USC 55, #2 Oklahoma 19	77,912	13.7
Rose Bowl	#4 Texas 38, #13 Michigan 37	93,468	12.4
Sugar Bowl	#3 Auburn 16, #8 Virginia Tech 13	77,349	9.5
Fiesta Bowl	#6 Utah 35, #21 Pittsburgh 7	73,519	7.4

BCS formula review: The BCS blew up its previous formula (BCS I) and started from scratch.

The BCS blew up its previous formula (BCS I) and started from scratch. The new formula (BCS II) comprised of only two parts—the human polls and computers. Strength of Schedule and Quality Win components were purged.

The human polls now accounted for two-thirds of the formula, with the AP poll (and later, Harris poll) and coaches polls each weighing one-third. Instead of using a team's actual ranking, the formula now called for the percentage of total votes received. This alteration actually created the deciding difference in the Texas-Cal controversy, as the old formula would've disregarded the vote-margin difference.

The computer ratings shrank further from seven to six as the New York Times bowed out. The new formula required strength of schedule to be part of each computer's calculations. The computer average counts for one-third of the formula, with the highest and lowest rating for each team discarded.

After replacing the AP with the Harris poll following the 2004 season, this formula has stayed intact through the end of BCS's existence.

Final analysis: The twin controversies engulfed the 2004 season, mitigated only somewhat by USC's impressive Orange Bowl win and "repeat" championship. But unlike the previous season, the BCS did not blow up the system and start from scratch again.

The nonchalant, near-shrug of a reaction actually, in the long term, saved the BCS. It's as if the BCS simply stated: "We're here to stay so deal with it."

It may have been because the BCS couldn't risk undergoing another wholesale change without completely destroying its already-tattered credibility, or it may have been because there just wasn't anything else to do short of going to a playoff system.

Either way, this steadfastness served the BCS well—for better or for worse. Despite some outcry in subsequent seasons, the public and media began to grudgingly accept the BCS for what it was and understand both its strengths and limitations.

Fall of Troy? Not So Fast

Pete Carroll's motto is "Win Forever." And by and large, that's what he has done at USC since becoming the head coach in 2001.

After starting 1-4 in his career at Troy, Carroll has laid waste to the college football landscape. Since 2002, the Trojans have gone 83-10. The 10 games they did lose were by a combined total of 39 points (by comparison, Cal lost to Oregon by 39 points just last week). During that span, each game USC lost was by seven or fewer points. In fact, the largest margin of defeat in the Carroll era was 11, a 27-16 loss at Notre Dame in his rookie season. Pete has made amends by not allowing the Irish to beat the Trojans since.


But it looks as if USC is at a crossroads. Coming into this Saturday's game at Cal, the Trojans are vulnerable. They may be ranked No. 7 in the AP Poll, but they have struggled offensively with a freshman quarterback. And just this week, they lost running back Stefon Johnson after a freak and near-catastrophic weight room accident.

A loss to Cal might put a temporary end to Win Forever. Consider this: Since Oct. 20, 2002, the Trojans have never ranked lower than No. 13 in the AP Poll. They finished in the top four in each of the last seven final AP rankings. Both of those trends probably would end if they can't emerge victorious in Strawberry Canyon.

But as someone who's written off Carroll's Trojans prematurely in the past, the Guru isn't going to make that mistake again. Every time when they seemed on the verge of becoming mortal, they have bounced back to finish the season with a flourish. Cal, conversely, after handing USC its only loss in 2003, has folded against the Trojans in the past five meetings.

For the Golden Bears, who have not been to the Rose Bowl since the 1959 game, this season represents their latest best chance to get to Pasadena. The dream of a national championship is dead - thanks to the 42-3 beating in Eugene last week - but the hopes of winning the Pac-10 is very much alive. And this will be Cal's best shot for a good while.

Win or lose on Saturday, USC will be a top national title contender and the prohibitive favorite to win the Pac-10 in 2010. So if the Bears don't knock them off this time, the Trojans just might keep on winning ... forever.

★★★★★ GAME OF THE WEEK: USC at Cal, 8 p.m. ET. For the second week in a row, the Bears will play in the game with the top billing. If they lay another egg as they did last week, then they won't return to this space until at least the 2010 season.

★★★★ FOUR-STAR GAME: Oklahoma at Miami (Fla.), 8 p.m. ET. Much bloom has come off this rose after Miami was manhandled by Virginia Tech last week. With Sam Bradford still out for Oklahoma, this will be Landry Jones' first start against a BCS caliber team. OU has a realistic chance of getting back into the BCS title picture, but it must start with a win in Miami.

★★★ THREE-STAR GAME: LSU at Georgia, 3:30 p.m. ET. The Bayou Tigers needed all their moxie, and a little luck, to get out of Starkville unscathed. But a similar performance will end with a loss between the hedges. This is the start of a three-game monster stretch for LSU that also includes games against top-ranked Florida and unbeaten Auburn.

★★ TWO-STAR GAME: Michigan at Michigan State, noon ET. The Big Brother is back just in time to step on the throat of the Little Brother once again. After a season in purgatory, Michigan struts into East Lansing with a 4-0 record and improbably, the Big Ten championship in sight. After choking against Central Michigan and Notre Dame, the 1-3 Spartans are headed toward another season of ... Sparty, No!

★ ONE-STAR GAME: Auburn at Tennessee, 7:45 p.m. ET. While Lane Kiffin is making all the news, the only unbeaten rookie coach in the SEC is Auburn's Gene Chizik, a somewhat controversial choice (just ask Charles Barkley) to replace Tommy Tuberville. While Kiffin is busy counting moral victories, Chizik has picked up four real ones against pretty decent competition.

The Fatal Flaw of the BCS

What's wrong with the BCS? Look no further than the two polls that account for two-thirds of the BCS Standings.

This week's Simulated BCS Standings are just about as good as the real thing, with nearly 90 percent of the data for the actual standings available - both the Coaches and Harris polls and four of the six computers.

But the near-fatal flaw of the BCS Standings becomes immediately evident as soon as the Harris Poll is released. With another year potentially to be dominated by parity - only 17 teams remain unbeaten after four weeks - the standings will have the final say on who gets to play in the BCS national championship game. And yet again, the standings will be heavily influenced by two highly biased and unreliable polls.

Let's count the ways:

1. The Harris Poll doesn't come out until the fourth week of the season, ostensibly to free the voters from preseason prejudices. Guess what? It's just not happening. The top 10 of the Harris Poll has the exact same 10 teams from the AP Poll, and in the exact order, except for Nos. 8-9 Ohio State and Oklahoma traded places.

2. If the Harris Poll was to be free of preseason biases, how would you explain the fact that Oregon is ranked No. 23 and Cal at No. 21? The Ducks just destroyed the Bears by 39 points. The two teams have identical records at 3-1. And Oregon played a considerably tougher schedule than the Bears did, with games against three ranked opponents. If the Harris voters indeed voted on the basis of pure performance, there is no way that Cal should be ranked ahead of Oregon. ... The same goes for Penn State being two spots ahead of Iowa.

3. The credibility of the Harris Poll is again highly questionable, with voters putting teams like Iowa State, Kansas State, Washington and Texas Tech in the top 25.

4. The Coaches Poll has the same sort of problems, as usual. And since both polls do not release the individual ballots to the public until the final vote, there is little or no transparency in the process.

As long as these two polls get to dominate the BCS Standings, the BCS will always lack a certain amount of legitimacy. With so much money and prestige on the line in the biggest intercollegiate sport, it's in many ways mind-boggling that a system can continue to thrive with so little checks and balances to ensure fairness.

Then again, big-time college sports isn't really about fairness, is it?

The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 4)

The Guru's BlogPoll ballot this week, with notes below:

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Florida
2	Texas
3	Alabama
4	Boise State	1
5	LSU	1
6	USC	3
7	Virginia Tech	5
8	Oregon	15
9	Ohio State	1
10	Brigham Young	4
11	Oklahoma	4
12	Iowa
13	Houston	3
14	Cincinnati	4
15	South Florida
16	UCLA	1
17	Miami (Florida)	13
18	TCU	4
19	Michigan
20	Auburn
21	Missouri
22	Kansas
23	Georgia Tech
24	Penn State	16
25	Oklahoma State	1
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: California (#7), Mississippi (#11), Florida State (#13), Georgia (#25).

The bloody massacre of top-ranked teams began on Saturday, as Ole Miss laid an egg against South Carolina. But that was nothing compared to Cal's utter implosion against Oregon. By Saturday night, Miami, Florida State and Penn State also joined victims list. LSU barely scraped by thanks to Mississippi State's questionable playcalling at the goal line with a minute left in the game.

* There is no way to describe what a debacle the Golden Bears perpetrated at Autzen Stadium. Yeah, it was a trap game, with Cal already thinking ahead to next week's showdown against the suddenly-vulnerable Trojans. But to get spanked to the tune of 42-3? No team that gets beat that badly this early in the season should be in the top 25. Cal is out.

* The same goes for Florida State, playing at home against a South Florida team without its veteran quarterback. The Bulls were very much looking forward to this game, which could signal its arrival among the Sunshine State powers. Even without Matt Groethe, they pulled it off. Winning even more impressively in Tallahassee, with backup B.J. Daniels, than Miami did. USF is now the second-ranked team in Florida.

* I already wrote a whole thing about Ole Miss. The Rebels don't deserve to be in the top 25. Not until they beat a couple of relevant teams.

* Penn State barely stayed in the top 25, and I'm not even sure this is the right thing to do. The Nittany Lions feasted on Temple, Akron and Syracuse ... and gets beat in the Big Ten opener, at home, by an above-average, but hardly spectacular Iowa team. It's evident that Ohio State is still the best team in the Big Ten, with, gulp, maybe Michigan a distant second?

* Four weeks into the season, only 17 D-IA teams are still unbeaten. Of those, 15 are on my ballot. Texas A&M and Wisconsin are not. They haven't played a schedule that's worthy to be in the top 25.

SEC Is So Tough ... Just Like a Duck

Most certainly, I'm not the only one who suspected that Ole Miss was a fraud. Yeah, the Rebels did beat Florida and finished with a six-game win streak last year, but what have they done in 2009 to warrant the lofty ranking of No. 4 in the AP Poll and No. 5 in the Coaches Poll?

Well, nothing, really.

Ole Miss was manhandled by Stever Spurrier's very mortal South Carolina team last night, scoring just one touchdown on a long pass play in a 16-10 loss. The score would've been more lopsided, in the Gamecocks' favor, had it not been Carolina's insistence on shooting itself in the foot repeatedly.

The Ole Miss defeat, without a doubt, brought back the oldest canard (or is it a Peking Duck?) in college sports back on the table: The SEC Is the Toughest Conference in Football. I've gone around this several times and really don't want to waste another second on this dubious subject. And delightfully, the Wall Street Journal (of all papers) came to the rescue.

Do you know what's really the toughest conference in college football in the last 10 years? Yep, it's the Pac-1+9. Check it out:

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West Is the Best

Including bowl games, here are the win-loss records this decade for the six major college football conferences when playing against one another, through Saturday:

BCS CONFERENCE	W	L	WIN%
Pac-10	81	62	.566
SEC	94	84	.528
Big 12	81	85	.488
ACC*	99	108	.478
Big East*	77	84	.478
Big Ten	84	93	.475

*Includes the win-loss records of whichever teams were in the conference in any given year

_________________________________________Courtesy: The Wall Street Journal

The Pac-10's edge is so complete, that even if you discard USC's absurd 19-3 record, it is still above .500 against other BCS conferences. The Pac-10 owns a winning record against every other conference during this period, which roughly coincided with the existence of the BCS.

But perception has become so much reality partly because the Pac-10 has consistently failed to toot its own horn. Let's put it this way: The Pac-10 is a mom-and-pop shop run out of a little bank building in Walnut Creek (in Bay Area parlance, there's no there there there). The Big Ten, bottom dwellers on the list, is run like the Roman Empire out of Chicago, replete with its own TV network, media office, the works.

Not to mention the SEC, which has transformed itself during the BCS era from a backwater regional league to a national brand, much the same way NASCAR has marketed itself. With ESPN and CBS leading the way, the SEC has successfully staked the competitive high ground, roasting the "SEC IS THE TOUGHEST CONFERENCE IN THE HISTORY OF THE UNIVERSE" duck to death while beating up on the Charleston Southerns and Citadels of the world.

Without a doubt, even with this unsightly loss, Ole Miss will remain in the top 20 because they lost in a hostile environment in the always so-tough SEC. And even if they turn out to be a .500 SEC team this season, the Rebs will get a much better bowl than they deserve purely because they achieved an 8-4 record in such a tough conference. Never mind that they basically got a free pass with a nonconference schedule that includes Memphis, SE Louisiana (I-AA), UAB and Northern Arizona (I-AA).

If it quacks ... never mind.

★★★★★ GAME OF THE WEEK: California at Oregon, 3:30 p.m. ET. This has all the trappings of a trap game for the Golden Bears, who figure this is finally the year that they take down Pete Carroll's Trojans, who will be visiting Berkeley next week. But Cal had better not take these Ducks (quack!) for granted. After its season-opening debacle at Boise State, Oregon has slowly but surely recovered. Besides, Autzen Stadium has never been all that hospitable to the visiting Bears, who lost in seven of their last eight trips.

★★★★ FOUR-STAR GAME: Miami at Virginia Tech, 3:30 p.m. ET. For the second week in a row, a top 20 team is coming to Blacksburg, only this time, it will be a conference game. The resurgent Hurricanes have vaulted into the top 10, thanks to ... Florida State's rout at BYU. Two ACC victories have created a buzz about the 'U' returning to national prominence, especially with a visit from Oklahoma coming next week. But Randy Shannon's boys had better remember first thing first.

★★★ THREE-STAR GAME: Iowa at Penn State, 8 p.m. ET. There's another top-5 team that despite its lofty rankings, hasn't done much of anything. Joe Pa's Lions have raced to a 3-0 record by feasting on Akron, Syracuse and Temple whereas Iowa is also 3-0, riding on a seven-game winning streak that began with a 24-23 upset that knocked Penn State out of the BCS championship chase. Happy Valley will smell of revenge.

★★ TWO-STAR GAME: TCU at Clemson, 3:30 p.m. ET. The Mountain West's best hope of getting into a BCS bowl now rests with the Horned Frogs after BYU and Utah were unceremoniously dumped last week. TCU has already played an ACC road game this year, wining the opener at Virginia. But Death Valley isn't quite like the serene, picturesque Jeffersonian campus.

★ ONE-STAR GAME: Texas Tech at Houston, 9:15 p.m. ET. With BYU and Utah out of the way, Houston suddenly has a chance to get into the BCS mix. The Red Raiders, as they've shown in last week's narrow loss to Texas, still have plenty of firepower. This might be the Cougars' sternest test yet in their quest to claim Conference USA's first BCS bowl berth.

The Calm Before Guns Ablaze

Wyatt Earp is sitting in a saloon (somewhere in Lubbock), all by himself. He's nursing a drink, reminiscing all that's happened in this tumultuous season. When he's done, he'll slowly get up and head over to the O.K. Corral (in Norman, OK, of course) to "kill 'em all."

(Here's a visual, if reading hurts your eyes)



Next week, the Biggest Game of the Season and the BGISH for Texas Tech will be settled on Owen Field, with the winner moving on and the loser carried off to the BCS morgue. But this Saturday, both Texas Tech and Oklahoma will be quietly polishing their guns at their respective watering holes.

Elsewhere, not much is expected to happen, either. The other five teams atop the BCS standings are all favored by at least two touchdowns in their respective games. There should not be a single upset among the championship hopefuls on Saturday and we might just have sort of a collective bye week.

The most intriguing game with BCS ramifications will take place in Corvallis - between two teams just outside of the BCS top 25. By now, Oregon State is making USC fans a bit nervous. The Beavers control their own destiny in terms of winning the Pac-10's automatic bid to the Rose Bowl. While the Trojans want to shoot for the big prize of the BCS championship game, they want to have Pasadena as a consolation prize if that doesn't work out.

So far, Oregon State hasn't cooperated, winning every Pac-10 game since dropping its opener to Stanford. But the Beavers will be facing the conference's next-best teams in their closing weeks - against California, at Arizona, and host Oregon in the Civil War. One loss probably will hand the Trojans the conference title for the seventh straight season.

The Golden Bears have a slim, slim shot at a BCS bowl berth, but mostly they're playing for a trip to San Diego for the Holiday Bowl. There's a pretty big difference between San Diego and El Paso, and we are not just talking about the cash money payout.

Besides the Cal-Oregon State 3:30 p.m. ET matchup, there is just one other game whose outcome might impact the BCS bowl picture - Brigham Young-Air Force, also at 3:30 p.m. If the Cougars win, a non-BCS conference team would be guaranteed a BCS bowl berth.

Three non-BCS teams currently are ranked in the top 14 of the BCS standings, with the top team locked in for an automatic bid - No. 7 Utah, No. 9 Boise State and No. 14 Ball State. The Utes, at 10-0, control their own destiny. If they close out the regular season with two more wins, then they're headed to their second BCS bowl appearance in five seasons.

A BYU victory over Air Force cinches the scenario that even if both Boise State and Ball State are upset in the closing weeks, and the Cougars defeat Utah in the Holy War on Nov. 22, one of those teams will stay in the top 14, which comes with the automatic BCS bowl berth. If anything, the Cougars can keep their own slim BCS hopes alive by beating the Falcons.

Finally, just for kicks, the Guru will throw you a few one liners on the expected walkovers Saturday:

Mississippi State at No. 1 Alabama, 7:45 p.m. - Yes, yes, Sylvester Croom has beaten his alma mater the last two years. That streak's over.

No. 3 Texas at Kansas, 12:30 p.m. - This seems to be the chic upset pick of the week. Why? Because it's gonna be cold in Lawrence? Hell will freeze over before KU beats Texas.

No. 25 South Carolina at No. 4 Florida, 3:30 p.m. - Yes, yes, Steve Spurrier was a Gator and will forever be a Gator. Florida fans still love him to death. Just not this week.

No. 6 USC at Stanford, 7 p.m. - Last year the Cardinal shocked the Trojans at the Coliseum with a 24-23 win. If Stanford scores 24 points this time - that'll be one more than USC has given up in the last six GAMES.

No. 7 Utah at San Diego State, 8 p.m. - Just how bad are the 1-9 Aztecs? They've surrendered an average of 43.3 points per game during their six-game losing streak. Division I-AA, anyone?

Ten Years of BCS: 2004

The Guru's Note: Beginning in June, the Guru will publish a review of each of the 10 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. In this series -- Ten Years of BCS -- the Guru will examine the results from these seasons -- who got lucky and who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear weekly leading up to the 2008 season. 

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If 2003 was a wakeup call for the BCS, then 2004 represented a broken snooze button.

The alarm just kept blaring.

Five teams remained undefeated all season. And at the end, while USC and Oklahoma faced off for the BCS title, SEC champion Auburn was left with a consolation prize in the Sugar Bowl. Mountain West champion Utah did get a BCS berth, but its opponent Pittsburgh was so overmatched in the Fiesta Bowl that the Utes didn't get to prove their mettle, either. WAC champion Boise State was left out of the BCS picture all together.

There was no split championship, like in 2003, mostly because the Trojans savagely mauled the Sooners, 55-19. Even Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville, who was on hand to troll for AP votes, conceded during ABC's halftime show that USC would be difficult to beat "when you give (offensive coordinator) Norm Chow a month to get ready for somebody."

But that was hardly a happy ending for the BCS, which had completely overhauled its formula from the previous season.

In fact, the BCS formula may be seen in two phases. BCS I ran from its inception in 1998 through the disastrous 2003 season. While there were alterations, they were mostly minor. BCS II emerged with the 2004 season, with human polls taking over the preponderance of the equation.

Ironically, BCS I and BCS II would've yielded the same USC-Oklahoma result in 2004, leaving Auburn and Utah out. With the Utes (and the Broncos), it's fairly easy to explain. The non-BCS conferences are not respected by the voters even if the computers treat them more fairly. The Mountain West in 2004 also was not a particularly solid conference, with only three teams finishing with winning records (both New Mexico and Wyoming were 7-5).

The last non-BCS school to win a national championship was Brigham Young in 1984. And it will remain the last one, well after this country elects a woman president, and possibly all through eternity.

As for Auburn, two factors proved fatal to its BCS title prospects. One, the Tigers were lightly regarded before the season started, checking in at No. 17 in the preseason AP poll. Auburn eventually worked its way up to No. 3, but could never crack the stranglehold USC and Oklahoma held on Nos. 1 and 2 -- going wire-to-wire. Two, just as LSU in 2003 and most of SEC teams in general, the Tigers played an extremely uncompetitive non-conference schedule.

Of their 11 regular-season games in 2004, seven were at home. Their three non-conference games were against Louisiana-Monroe, Louisiana Tech and I-AA Citadel -- all at home. Compared that with USC (at Virginia Tech and BYU, home to Colorado State and Notre Dame) and Oklahoma (home to Bowling Green, Houston and Oregon), it's easy to see that both the human voters and computers punished Auburn for the soft schedule.

The Tigers eked out a 16-13 win over Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl to finish second in the final AP and coaches polls.  But that didn't stop Tuberville and Auburn from declaring themselves champions. The Tigers made themselves big diamond rings to commemorate their "championship" season, and they're now available on eBay.

Final BCS Standings: 1. USC, 2. Oklahoma, 3. Auburn, 4. Texas.

Alternative Methods

Using 1998-2003 (BCS I) formula: 1. USC, 2. Oklahoma, 3. Auburn, 4. Texas.

Using human polls only: 1. USC, 2. Oklahoma, 3. Auburn, 4. California.

Plus One: USC vs. Utah; Oklahoma vs. Auburn.

Controversy

The Mack Brown Campaign: In 2003, Texas finished No. 5 in the BCS standings but was relegated to the Holiday Bowl. The Longhorns seemed headed to San Diego again in 2004, until coach Mack Brown did something about it.

With undefeated Utah poised to become the first BCS Buster, there was only one BCS bowl slot available to a non-conference champion. And since the No. 4 team was guaranteed an at-large spot, the race was on between Texas and California.

The Golden Bears had a tenuous hold on the fourth spot since October. Their only loss all season was a 23-17 heartbreaker to USC at the L.A. Coliseum when they couldn't get the ball in the end zone from the 9-yard line in the game's waning moments. Texas's only loss was a 12-0 defeat at the Cotton Bowl against the Sooners. 

After Cal routed archrival Stanford in the Big Game, its season should've been over. But once again, a hurricane proved to be a Pac-10 team's undoing, as it was in 1998. The Bears' Sept. 23 game at Southern Mississippi was postponed because of Hurricane Ivan, and it was re-scheduled for Dec. 4.

Texas was done with its schedule on Nov. 26, after beating rival Texas A&M. Immediately thereafter, Brown started an endless media campaign on behalf of his No. 5-ranked Longhorns. His tactics also made the Cal-Southern Miss matchup something of a referendum on the Bears, whose game would be nationally televised on ESPN.

Perhaps affected by the pressure and expectations, the Bears did not play an impressive game, but nonetheless they won, 26-16. While Cal coach Jeff Tedford thought his team had done what it needed to secure the program's first Rose Bowl berth since 1959, others weren't so sure.

The Bears' worst fears were realized when they fell from No. 4 to No. 5 in the final BCS standings as Texas snatched the coveted Rose Bowl berth. Voter defection carried the day. In the AP poll, Cal's advantage over Texas shrunk from 85 points to 62. But the real story was the coaches poll.

In the penultimate standings, Cal held a 48-point lead over Texas. In the one that counted, it was ahead by a mere 5 points. In other words, no fewer than 20 coaches switched their placements of Texas and Cal. But more telling was that four coaches voted Cal No. 7 and two No. 8 -- after a Bears victory, and behind 2-loss Georgia.

Predictably, the Pac-10 was furious and demanded that the coaches disclose their final ballot.The AFCA refused and disputed the suggestions that impropriety took place behind the cloak of secrecy. The Longhorns went on to win the Rose Bowl behind the electrifying performance of sophomore QB Vince Young. The dispirited Bears were routed by Texas Tech in the Holiday Bowl.

The Texas-California controversy had a long-lasting effect on the BCS standings. First, the AP poll refused to be included in the BCS standings after the 2004 season. Because all AP poll balloting is available to the public, some AP voters were harassed and threatened by fans who were unhappy with the decisions. The BCS had to scramble and invent the "Harris Interactive Poll" to replace the venerable and prestigious AP poll in its standings. Second, to promote more transparency, the coaches reluctantly agreed to reveal their final regular-season balloting.

Through it all, Tedford took the high road. He didn't try to score an extra touchdown against Southern Miss in the game's final minutes to curry favor with the voters and never indulged in a war of words with Brown or anyone else. And the final irony was that the AP flip-flops alone would've put Texas ahead of Cal in the final standings. But the coaches ended up catching most of the heat because of their shenanigans. 

BCS Formula Review: The BCS blew up its previous formula (BCS I) and started from scratch. The new formula (BCS II) comprised of only two parts -- the human polls and computers. Strength of Schedule and Quality Win components were purged. 

The human polls now account for two-thirds of the formula, with the AP poll and coaches poll each weighing one third. Instead of using the team's actual ranking, the formula now calls for the percentage of total votes received. This alteration actually made the deciding difference in the Texas-Cal controversy as the old formula would've disregarded the vote-margin difference.

The computer ratings shrank further from seven to six, with the New York Times bowing out. The new formula required strength of schedule to be part of each computer's calculations. The computer average counts for one-third of the formula, with the highest and lowest rating for each team discarded.

After replacing the AP with Harris poll following the 2004 season, this formula has stayed exactly intact, at least through the 2008 season.

Analysis: The twin controversies engulfed the 2004 season, mitigated only somewhat by USC's impressive Orange Bowl win and "repeat" championship. But unlike the previous season, the BCS did not blow up the system and start from scratch again.

The nonchalant, near-shrug of a reaction actually, in the long view, saved the BCS. It's as if the BCS simply stated: "We're here to stay so deal with it." It may be because the BCS couldn't risk undergoing another wholesale change without completely destroying its already-tattered credibility. Or because there just wasn't anything else to do short of going to a playoff system.

Either way, this steadfastness would serve BCS well, for better or for worse. Despite all the outcry in the subsequent seasons, the public and media began to grudgingly accept the BCS for what it is.

The Countdown Begins

The season started with a blast, when Appalachian State took down mighty Michigan at the Big House. And it has continued in such dramatic fashion, with one upset after another, climaxing with Stanford's stunning win over USC last weekend. So when the first official BCS standings of 2007 come out on Sunday, they will bear little resemblance to the first unofficial standings we started the season with.

As the official standings start to roll out, the Guru's job becomes a bit more different, not to say a little more difficult as well. First, instead of publishing unofficial standings weekly, the Guru will now post projections every Saturday night, in advance of the official announcement Sunday afternoon. Also, the Guru will publish the official standings with color coding, offering important information to help you decipher the myriad of numbers that make up the BCS standings.

And as we started last week, the Guru's List will appear every Friday, like right now:

Gold: LSU will be in the national championship game if it wins out. Bar none. The Tigers shared the penthouse with USC for the first five weeks of the season. Now they have it all to themselves.

Silver: Cal or Ohio State? That's the question. While the Buckeyes are slightly in front, the Golden Bears, with a more difficult schedule and playing in a more difficult league, stand to benefit if they can manage to stay undefeated. Cal will beat out Ohio State should both teams finish unbeaten.

Bronze: South Florida, Boston College, Missouri, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Kansas and Connecticut are the only other unbeaten BCS conference teams. Some of those teams will play one another and knock each other out. And it's really difficult to see any of those teams go undefeated. For now, they're part of the elite "Clean Dozen Minus One."

Noticeably missing from the above list is Hawai'i. Yes, the Warriors remain unbeaten. And yes, after Friday night's game at San Jose State, they'll have to leave Honolulu only once (at Nevada) the rest of the season. But even if Hawai'i goes unbeaten, including a showdown win over Boise State, it might have a hard time getting into the Top 12, thus earning a guaranteed BCS bowl berth. Hawai'i ranks no higher than 30th in any of the computer ratings and as low as 76th (Massey). And human voters remain unimpressed with the Warriors' weak schedule (as low as dead last in Division I-A).

BCS Buster Games for Week 7:

4-Star: Missouri at Oklahoma -- One more loss, the Sooners are really done. But this game is more about Mizzou and whether it's ready to contend for the national championship. There might even be a rematch later, but OU will continue to own the Tigers, for now.

3-Star: LSU at Kentucky -- There are no easy games in the SEC, especially on the road. The Tigers had better not think too far ahead about next week's revenge game against Auburn, or UK might win this cat fight. In the end, though, LSU has too much to lose to let this one slip away.

2-Star: Oregon State at Cal -- A year ago, the Beavers handed USC its first conference loss in nearly three seasons. Can they upend another Pac-10 front-runner? Not in Strawberry Canyon.

1-Star: Louisville at Cincinnati -- The Cardinals' season is very much down the toilet. Now they want to drag down the unbeaten Bearcats with them. It's time to flush.

No. 2? Buckeyes Have It

USC's upset loss to Stanford on Saturday produced a new No. 2 in the Week 6 unofficial BCS standings. Ohio State nudged out California for the coveted second spot, behind LSU, the near-unanimous choice as No. 1.

Trailing the Golden Bears by very slim margins in both the Coaches Poll and Harris Poll, the Buckeyes seized the second spot with their superior computer ratings. Ohio State's lead is comfortable though not commanding, but a wide gap opens between No. 3 Cal and No. 4 South Florida.

Boston College checks in at No. 5, followed by South Carolina, Missouri, West Virginia, Virginia Tech and Oregon in the Top 10.

Two powerhouses' national championship hopes are in serious jeopardy after recent losses. USC, despite falling only to No. 7 in both polls following the Stanford loss, has dropped to No. 13 because of computer meltdowns. Oklahoma, No. 5 in both polls after rebounding against Texas, is at No. 12. Both teams will need a lot of help from teams currently ahead of them, particularly with the ACC and Big East each placing two teams in the Top 10.

The 2007 season's first official BCS standings will be unveiled next Sunday, Oct. 14. And barring any upset losses, the top of the standings should stay fairly intact. One trend to keep an eye on is the Richard Billingsley ratings, which act more like a one-man poll than a true computer-generated ratings system. For this week, 19 of his Top 25 results likely would've been discarded had all six computer ratings been available.

A Brave New World

After Bloody Saturday, the BCS standings have been transformed as it's never been before. Honestly, who'd thought Boston College, South Florida and Kentucky would be in the Top 10 in the Week 5 unofficial BCS standings?

But that's exactly where we are, even if the top of the standings remains unchanged. LSU, for a second consecutive week, held onto the top spot. USC stays at No. 2, even though the Trojans are still No. 1 in both polls. Cal made a quantum leap from No. 8 to No. 3, and will be itching for its shot at USC on Nov. 10 in Strawberry Canyon.

The biggest jump, though, belongs to South Florida. This program was born just 11 years ago, and made the big time, sort of, by joining the Big East. But today, the Bulls, at No. 7, is the top ranked team in the State of Florida. Yes, ahead of Florida State, ahead of Miami, and ahead of defending national champion Florida.

While the Gators stayed in the Top 10 after losing to Auburn, West Virginia dropped to No. 11 after the loss to South Florida. Oklahoma's last-second loss to Colorado dropped the Sooners to No. 13; and fellow Big 12 South member Texas fell from No. 7 to No. 19. Next week's Red River Shootout at the Cotton Bowl is suddenly just another game between two one-loss teams.

Some luster also came off next Saturday's showdown between LSU and Florida. The Gators now must win to keep their slim repeat hopes alive. A loss will ensure that the football Gators will not duplicate the feat accomplished by the basketball Gators the last two seasons.

And finally, don't look now, but Hawai'i is creeping up to No. 18. With five of their final seven games at home, the Warriors will claim a BCS bowl spot if they can stay undefeated.