FCS Uprising ... What Does It Mean?

Maybe they're not the body-baggers anymore. Maybe they're zombies who are bent on taking over the college football world.

"Body bag games," a phrase coined by the late Cal State Fullerton coach Gene Murphy to describe the big-dollar staged slaughters of college football also-rans, became horror shows for more than a handful of FBS powers in the 2013 opening weekend. It began with Towson's thrashing of Connecticut on Thursday and culminated with the sacking of San Diego State by Eastern Illinois on Saturday night.

In all, eight FBS teams lost to FCS opponents: Georgia State (Samford), Iowa State (Northern Iowa), Kansas State (North Dakota State), No. 25 Oregon State (Eastern Washington), San Diego State (Eastern Illinois), South Alabama (Southern Utah), UConn (Towson), and USF (McNeese State). That's a new record for a single weekend.

So the visitors not only collected a handsome check just for showing up, they also delighted in the ritual humiliation of their hosts in front of disgusted fans. This included two-time defending FCS champion North Dakota State's takedown of Kansas State on Friday, when the defending Big 12 co-champions unveiled their newly renovated stadium.

But the biggest upset of the weekend belonged to Eastern Washington. Though the Eagles were no slouch - having won the FCS title in 2010, they became just the fourth lower-division team to beat a ranked FBS (or I-A) opponent since Division I split up in 1978. While EWU's 49-46 win over No. 25 Oregon State isn't quite on the scale of Appalachian State's epic shocker over No. 5 Michigan at the Big House in 2007, it did help to illuminate the FCS conundrum facing big-time football programs.

(FULL ARTICLE @ SB NATION)

The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 10)

The Guru's Blogpoll ballot, with notes below:

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Texas
2	Alabama
3	Florida
4	TCU	2
5	Boise State	1
6	Cincinnati	1
7	Pittsburgh	6
8	Georgia Tech	2
9	LSU	1
10	Oregon	5
11	USC	1
12	Ohio State	4
13	Utah	1
14	Iowa	5
15	Houston
16	Arizona	2
17	Miami (Florida)	3
18	Penn State	7
19	South Florida	2
20	Oklahoma State	2
21	Brigham Young	2
22	West Virginia	2
23	Wisconsin
24	Oregon State
25	Navy
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: California (#17), Notre Dame (#19), Oklahoma (#25).

* The top of my ballot is taking shape and this feel about right. Texas is playing a bit better than the two SEC heavyweights, but not by much. TCU is the best team among the other three unbeatens, just slightly ahead of Boise. The Broncos have a better victory - over Oregon - but really didn't have another win to validate it. Should the Horned Frogs beat Utah next week, they'll be even more entrenched in that position.

* Cincinnati can still move up, though I have the Bearcats at No. 6 right now. Should they defeat both West Virginia and Pittsburgh, then they would warrant another look. As it is, their signature victory - at Oregon State - isn't quite as impressive as TCU's and Boise's.

* To me, LSU-Oregon-USC-Ohio State, in that order, among 2-loss teams, is quite reasonable. It boggles my mind that voters in the other polls have such amnesia. Wasn't it just last week that Oregon whupped USC? And didn't the Trojans outlast Ohio State at Columbus? LSU's two losses were the best ones among the bunch, that's why the Tigers are ahead of the others.

* Every 2-loss team in the BCS conferences are on the ballot, except Rutgers, whose resume just isn't there. The best 3-loss team is on the ballot: Oregon State, with close losses to Cincinnati, USC and Arizona.

* The least logical placement is probably Navy at No. 25. But it's not that much of a stretch. The Midshipmen lost close games to Ohio State, Pittsburgh and vastly improved Temple, and beat Air Force, Wake Forest and now Notre Dame (not to mention Adm. Isoroku Yamamoto's Imperial Japanese Navy). What else can you say? Anchors Aweigh!

(Even if you're a Notre Dame fan, you can't possibly be too mad about this)

The Calm Before Guns Ablaze

Wyatt Earp is sitting in a saloon (somewhere in Lubbock), all by himself. He's nursing a drink, reminiscing all that's happened in this tumultuous season. When he's done, he'll slowly get up and head over to the O.K. Corral (in Norman, OK, of course) to "kill 'em all."

(Here's a visual, if reading hurts your eyes)



Next week, the Biggest Game of the Season and the BGISH for Texas Tech will be settled on Owen Field, with the winner moving on and the loser carried off to the BCS morgue. But this Saturday, both Texas Tech and Oklahoma will be quietly polishing their guns at their respective watering holes.

Elsewhere, not much is expected to happen, either. The other five teams atop the BCS standings are all favored by at least two touchdowns in their respective games. There should not be a single upset among the championship hopefuls on Saturday and we might just have sort of a collective bye week.

The most intriguing game with BCS ramifications will take place in Corvallis - between two teams just outside of the BCS top 25. By now, Oregon State is making USC fans a bit nervous. The Beavers control their own destiny in terms of winning the Pac-10's automatic bid to the Rose Bowl. While the Trojans want to shoot for the big prize of the BCS championship game, they want to have Pasadena as a consolation prize if that doesn't work out.

So far, Oregon State hasn't cooperated, winning every Pac-10 game since dropping its opener to Stanford. But the Beavers will be facing the conference's next-best teams in their closing weeks - against California, at Arizona, and host Oregon in the Civil War. One loss probably will hand the Trojans the conference title for the seventh straight season.

The Golden Bears have a slim, slim shot at a BCS bowl berth, but mostly they're playing for a trip to San Diego for the Holiday Bowl. There's a pretty big difference between San Diego and El Paso, and we are not just talking about the cash money payout.

Besides the Cal-Oregon State 3:30 p.m. ET matchup, there is just one other game whose outcome might impact the BCS bowl picture - Brigham Young-Air Force, also at 3:30 p.m. If the Cougars win, a non-BCS conference team would be guaranteed a BCS bowl berth.

Three non-BCS teams currently are ranked in the top 14 of the BCS standings, with the top team locked in for an automatic bid - No. 7 Utah, No. 9 Boise State and No. 14 Ball State. The Utes, at 10-0, control their own destiny. If they close out the regular season with two more wins, then they're headed to their second BCS bowl appearance in five seasons.

A BYU victory over Air Force cinches the scenario that even if both Boise State and Ball State are upset in the closing weeks, and the Cougars defeat Utah in the Holy War on Nov. 22, one of those teams will stay in the top 14, which comes with the automatic BCS bowl berth. If anything, the Cougars can keep their own slim BCS hopes alive by beating the Falcons.

Finally, just for kicks, the Guru will throw you a few one liners on the expected walkovers Saturday:

Mississippi State at No. 1 Alabama, 7:45 p.m. - Yes, yes, Sylvester Croom has beaten his alma mater the last two years. That streak's over.

No. 3 Texas at Kansas, 12:30 p.m. - This seems to be the chic upset pick of the week. Why? Because it's gonna be cold in Lawrence? Hell will freeze over before KU beats Texas.

No. 25 South Carolina at No. 4 Florida, 3:30 p.m. - Yes, yes, Steve Spurrier was a Gator and will forever be a Gator. Florida fans still love him to death. Just not this week.

No. 6 USC at Stanford, 7 p.m. - Last year the Cardinal shocked the Trojans at the Coliseum with a 24-23 win. If Stanford scores 24 points this time - that'll be one more than USC has given up in the last six GAMES.

No. 7 Utah at San Diego State, 8 p.m. - Just how bad are the 1-9 Aztecs? They've surrendered an average of 43.3 points per game during their six-game losing streak. Division I-AA, anyone?

USC Needs A Lot of Help

(First thing first: Where was the Guru on this monumental first weekend of the BCS standings? Well, it was the weekend of Mrs. Guru's birthday so the Guru clan went on a camping trip roughing it in the woods. No internet, you see. But the Guru is back now and promises to go nowhere until after Dec. 9.)

At first glance, USC is No. 5 in the first official BCS standings of the season, slipping just one slot from last week, safely tucked behind Oklahoma among one-loss teams, ready to pounce as the unbeatens get peeled off, one by one.

But take a closer look, then you'll know that if the Trojans want to return to their first BCS title game since 2005, they'll need help - a lot of help - besides winning all of their remaining games.

The Guru had projected the Trojans to check in at No. 6, behind even Oklahoma State. USC got enough of a cushion in the polls to hold off the Cowboys by a mere .0024 points. But in the grand scheme of things, Oklahoma State is not going to be USC's problem.

If the Trojans are looking in the rearview mirror, they'll notice that Florida, Georgia, and even, gulp, Ohio State have more horsepower under their hoods, and there's not a thing they can do about it.

And this is assuming that among Texas, Alabama and Penn State, at least two of them will drop a game before the end of the season, thus allowing a one-loss team to get into the BCS title game.

So just what are we looking at, exactly?

To be sure, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech will not be able to keep up. Both teams will face No. 1 Texas in the next couple of weeks. If they aren't beaten by the suddenly invincible Longhorns, they'll lose another game or two - or three - down the road. These two Big 12 South also-rans will not be a factor.

But Georgia and Florida will be. And with those two, the Gators have a better chance to get to the BCS championship game even though the Bulldogs are now three spots ahead of them in the standings. Those two will settle things on the field in Jacksonville on Nov. 1, but the Gators will benefit more from a win at the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.

All of Florida's remaining opponents - except I-AA Citadel - are credible teams, including the resurgent Florida State Seminoles. A winning streak against these teams - capped with an SEC title game win over Alabama - will rocket the Gators up the polls and leapfrog the Trojans. In other words, if both Florida and USC go undefeated from this point and on, Florida will finish ahead of USC in the final BCS standings.

What's more disconcerting for the Trojans is that they may be jumped by Ohio State, a team they walloped at the Coliseum, 35-3, on Sept. 13. With teams such as Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and the loser of the Florida-Georgia game guaranteed to drop in the standings, the Buckeyes will steadily move up. A victory over No. 3 Penn State this weekend will provide the fuel for Ohio State to make a significant jump.

If Ohio State is barely behind USC in the polls - one or two slots, say - then the Buckeyes eventually will jump the Trojans in the BCS standings because of their superior computer ratings. Had Ohio State been ranked sixth or seventh in the polls this week - in Texas Tech's slots, for instance - it would be ahead of USC purely on the strength of the computer numbers.

The poor computer ratings - to say nothing of their loss to Oregon State - may prove to be USC's undoing. In a year when the Pac-10 is exceedingly weak, the Trojans will be severely punished by their conference slate. They will not play another team within a sniffing distance of the top 25 the rest of the year and their Saturday's opponent - Arizona - happens to be the highest ranked team they'll face, at No. 34. All other remaining opponents range from damaged goods (Cal), middling (UCLA, Notre Dame, Stanford) to downright atrocious (Washington).

The irony is that the team that's beaten USC might be the best conference team it would face all year. Two of the Beavers' three losses are against undefeated teams (Penn State and Utah) and they really should've beaten the Utes. And it's not beyond the realm of possibility that Oregon State may win the Pac-10 and the Rose Bowl bid by winning their remaining five games.

In fact, it's improbable, but not impossible, for Oregon State to clinch a trip to Pasadena while "relegating" the Trojans to the BCS title game. But even for that scenario to occur, USC will need help - a lot of help.

The Race Is On

The Thank-you notes are pouring into Corvallis right about now ... from Athens, Ga., Gainesville, Fla., Norman, Okla., Baton Rouge, La., and maybe a few other places. The 2008 BCS race has just been blown wide open.

Oregon State's unimaginable 27-21 upset victory over top-ranked USC will shake up the BCS standings. The Trojans, ranked No. 1 since the first week of the season, had been seen as unbeatable after a 35-3 dismantling of Ohio State on Sept. 13. The teams left on their schedule were only the "Nine Little Dwarfs" of the Pac-10 and mediocre Notre Dame. USC was going to have clear sailing into the BCS title game in Miami.

Well, well.

USC, too busy making future plans, obviously forgot that those games still needed to be played. But now, with a loss against a Oregon State team that had been annihilated by Penn State, the Trojans will need a lot of help - if they're lucky - to get back into the BCS championship picture. For now, the race will be in the hands of the heavyweights of the SEC and Big 12.

The unofficial BCS standings, after last week, had seven teams from the SEC and Big 12 in the top nine, besides soon-to-be former No.1 USC and No. 7 Wisconsin. These teams will begin beating up on each other to sort out the conference races, with No. 2 Georgia taking on No. 8 Alabama on Saturday.

And the Mountain West Conference is definitely staking its ground in the BCS standings as well. Brigham Young, at No. 10, and No. 11 Utah, are already in range required for non-BCS members to claim a BCS bowl berth. Both 4-0, these bitter rivals will face off on Nov. 22 for perhaps the MWC title and a BCS berth - but both still must also get by No. 23 Texas Christian, which is also 4-0.

But back to USC. The loss to Oregon State, while shocking, was hardly unprecedented. The Trojans' recent history is littered with losses to unranked and/or overmatched Pac-10 foes. Since USC began its dominating run in the Pac-10 in 2003, the Trojans have lost just once to a non-conference opponent - the 2005 BCS title game to Texas - but have dropped a whopping six games against Pac-10 teams.

In 2003, a triple-overtime loss at California ultimately cost USC a shot at the BCS title game. In 2006, the Trojans lost at Oregon State and at UCLA - another costly loss that kept them out of the BCS title game. In 2007, they stumbled against Stanford (a 41-point underdog) at home and lost at Oregon.

So what are USC's chances to get back in the BCS race after another loss to a double-digit underdog? Actually, fairly decent - if recent history is any indication, and assuming the Trojans don't stumble again. USC likely will still stay in the top 10 in next week's BCS standings, and will get a chance to creep back up every time a team loses in the endless internecine warfare in the SEC and Big 12.

Destiny, however, has left the Trojans. They're now at the mercy of their fellow competitors and the whims of the BCS.

For the rest, the party is just getting started.

Ten Years of BCS: 2000

The Guru's Note: Beginning in June, the Guru will publish a review of each of the 10 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. In this series -- Ten Years of BCS -- the Guru will examine the results from these seasons -- who got lucky and who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear weekly leading up to the 2008 season.

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After two years of relative calm, controversy exploded on the BCS in Year 3. For the first time, a team's presence in the BCS title game was called into question. And the criticism went unabated even after an undefeated champion was crowned.

But if anything, this was a self-inflicted wound.

Bowing more to an ignorant media than any real pressure from public opinion, the BCS drastically changed its formula to retroactively make amends for an outcome it was powerless to change. Instead of defending its method and holding its ground, the BCS capitulated. This knee-jerk reaction would bring far more serious consequences in the years to come and compromise its claim to legitimacy in the system's formative years.

Oklahoma finished the 2000 regular season as the only undefeated team and its No.1 ranking was undisputed. But Florida State, despite ranking No. 3 in both the AP and coaches polls, leapfrogged No. 2 Miami in the final BCS standings to earn a date with the Sooners in the Orange Bowl.

The media went berserk, more so than even Miami coach Butch Davis. The credibility of BCS computers was called into question because it was the computers' preference for the Seminoles that carried the day. The main argument was this: Since both Miami and Florida State each had one loss, and the Hurricanes beat the Seminoles on the field, how could Florida State be ranked ahead of Miami?

The BCS panicked big time. Changes were promised and then carried out in the offseason. The computer lineup was reshuffled to de-emphasize margin of victory. And a dubious "quality win" criteria was added to the formula -- as if the existing arrangement wasn't convoluted enough.

But the BCS should've responded ith: "What's the problem?" and vigorously defended the system.

Florida State was a worthy No. 2 team. If you lined up FSU and Miami side-by-side, plenty could've been made in the Seminoles' favor:

1. Strength of Schedule: Florida State and Miami ranked Nos. 2 and 3, respectively, in the strength of schedule compartment of the BCS standings. But upon further examination, that was laughable. (the SoS, parroted from the RPI that the NCAA uses for its basketball selections, would prove to be the most destructive part of the formula -- but more on that later in the series.) Florida State played in a tougher conference (ACC)- than Miami (Big East). Its non-conference games consisted of Louisville, Brigham Young, Florida and Miami. The 'Canes played I-AA McNeese State, Louisiana Tech, Washington and FSU, plus Big East cupcakes such as Rutgers and Temple.

2. Losses: Florida State's lone loss was to Miami, 27-24, at the Orange Bowl on Oct. 7. The Seminoles rallied from a 17-0 halftime deficit to take a 24-20 lead late in the game, only to lose on a Ken Dorsey-to-Jeremy Shockey pass with 46 seconds left. The 'Canes' only defeat was a 34-29 loss at Washington on Sept. 9.

3. The Washington Factor: If head-to-head results were so paramount, then maybe Washington should've been ranked ahead of Miami. After all, the Huskies beat Miami and also only lost once -- a 23-16 defeat at two-loss Oregon.

4. Margin of Victory: If Washington was discounted because it won lots of close games -- eight of its 11 games were decided by seven or fewer points -- then the fact that Florida State won its games, against a considerably tougher schedule, by a wider margin than Miami (38.9 vs. 30.4) should not have been overlooked. And the computers didn't.

5. Historic Precedent: Even before the birth of BCS, there had been several instances that a team was ranked ahead of another despite losing head-to-head and possessing the same record. In 1993, Florida State finished ahead of Notre Dame in both polls even though the Irish won, 31-24, at South Bend. In 1978, USC finished second to Alabama (11-1) in the AP poll even though the Trojans (12-1) beat the Tide, 24-14, in Birmingham, Ala.

See, the body of evidence is pretty strong in the Seminoles' favor. Their presence in the BCS championship game was easily defensible. That they laid an near-egg in an ugly 13-2 loss to Oklahoma is immaterial. And that Miami defeated a Florida team in the Sugar Bowl -- a team that the 'Noles walloped -- is irrelevant.

And one more thing: Even if today's BCS formula, which gives two-thirds of its weight to the human polls, were applied to the 2000 season, you'd still end up with the same result. Florida State would've finished second, ahead of Miami (1.1093 vs. 1.1025).

Final BCS Standings: 1. Oklahoma, 2. Florida State, 3. Miami (Fla.), 4. Washington.

Alternative Methods:

* Using present day BCS formula: 1. Oklahoma, 2. Florida State.

* Using human polls only: 1. Oklahoma, 2. Miami (Fla.)

* Plus-One: Oklahoma vs. Washington; Florida State vs. Miami (Fla.).

Controversy:

* Notre Dame windfall: The Fiesta Bowl passed on four teams ahead of Notre Dame in the BCS standings to take the two-loss No. 10 Irish. Virginia Tech, ranked No. 5 with its only loss to Miami, fell just outside of the Kansas State-mandate and was ignored. Three other two-loss teams were also swept aside -- Oregon (out because two other Pac-10 teams were already taken), Kansas State (they're pretty used to this by now) and Nebraska. The Huskers also had a beef because they had defeated Notre Dame in South Bend, 27-24, earlier in the season. This occurred at a time when the Irish received a windfall of $13 million for a BCS bowl appearance -- as opposed to today's more balanced payouts. Notre Dame was promptly exposed as a fraud as it was annihilated by Dennis Erickson's Oregon State Beavers, 41-9.

BCS formula review: No change to the formula was made between the 1999 and 2000 seasons. And that's about to change, as the formula would be tweaked or overhauled in four of the next five years.

Analysis: The changes to the BCS formula prior to the 2001 season would prove to be simply reactionary and solved nothing. And while an argument may be stated on Miami's behalf, the results of the bowl games really made a case for Washington. The Huskies went 7-1 in easily the toughest conference in 2000. They beat Purdue in the Rose Bowl; and bowl wins by Oregon State and Oregon gave the Pac-10 three teams in the top seven in the final AP poll. The BCS was rocked by its first real crisis and another one would erupt the following season.