Conference USA's Tiebreaking Travesty

A letter to the Conference USA office:

By Chris McComas

Good morning,

I just wanted to drop you gentleman a line regarding the formula you used to determine home-field advantage for the CUSA title game this weekend. First off, I don't expect the game location to be switched, or anything like that, but wanted to address a few points to hopefully prevent such an error by the conference in the future.

First off, my name is Christopher McComas. I am a Marshall alumnus and fan. Many years ago I computed my own "power ratings" similar to those used in the BCS equation. At one point I actually had a couple phone conversations with Roy Kramer of the SEC and Tom Mickle of the ACC, who were at the time the top two in the BCS, about the possibility of including my ratings in the BCS formula. Ultimately my ratings weren't added, but I had a wonderful opportunity to talk with some gentlemen whom I respected greatly.

The BCS formula is designed so that the human element, Coaches Poll and Harris Interactive Poll, carries more weight than the computer element, two-thirds for the human element to one-third for the computer element. This tweak was made in 2004 so it would make it next to impossible for the top-ranked team in the polls to not end up ranked first or second in the BCS after the 2003-2004 season ended with a split national championship.

All that said, let's move on to CUSA's tie-breaker for home-field advantage. We can skip down to Step No. 3: "If still tied, team with highest BCS ranking." Since Marshall received votes in both of the human polls the BCS, there was enough data to determine a rating for each team based on the formula the BCS uses for all other teams.

Rice would have ended up with 0.0 for the Harris Poll, 0.0 for the Coaches Poll, and 0.0 for the computer ratings. Marshall would have ended up with 0.0038 (10/2625) for the Harris Poll, 0.0084 (13/1550) for the Coaches Poll, and 0.0 for the computer ratings. There was no need to change the formula, since there was enough data to determine each team’s BCS rating based on the original BCS formula, and thus determine which of the two had a higher "BCS Ranking," which would have settled Step No. 3 of your tie-breaking procedure.

Marshall would have had a BCS rating of:

0.0041 = (0.0084 + 0.0038 + 0.0) / 3

Rice would've had a BCS rating of:

0.0000 = (0.0 + 0.0 + 0.0) / 3

(According to the complete BCS standings published at BCS Guru, Marshall is No. 33 while Rice is unranked.)

I'm not sure why you as a conference felt that the computers must be included, the BCS doesn't include computer ratings when a team is outside the Top 25 of a computer rating. You can look at Fresno State this week as an example, as it received 0.0 as its computer component because it was not ranked in the Top 25 in ANY of the six computer components.

You might wonder why the BCS would exclude computer ratings outside the Top 25 in their official calculations, but it's pretty simple. The voters in both of the human elements are limited to voting for 25 teams, which creates a 25-point scale, i.e. 25 points for first, 24 for second, etc all the way down to 1 point for twenty-fifth. In the official BCS calculations, the computers carry the same scale, 25 for first, etc. This keeps the three elements evenly weighted, so that the computers don't outweigh the polls.

When CUSA made the decision to rank Rice and Marshall’s computer ratings and base it on ALL 125 teams in FBS this year, you created a 125 scale that you used only for the computer. This decision essentially gave the computers 5 times the value/weight as the human polls.

The human polls as I mentioned are only on a 25-team scale, so Marshall finished 29th out of 36 in the Coaches Poll and 31st out of 36 in the Harris Poll, it doesn’t see them as the 29th and 31st best team out of 125, only out of the 36 teams that received votes this week. The polls don't recognize or count for the other FBS teams not getting a single vote. It sees Marshall near the bottom of the 36 teams getting votes and awards them accordingly.

If you would've weighted the human polls on a 125 scale, then Marshall's 13 points in the Coaches Poll would've been worth 1,313 and its 10 points in the Harris Poll would've been worth 1,010. I got this by doing a 125 scale, 125 for 1st, 124 for 2nd, etc. Recalculating the BCS equation to determine the ratings for the Coaches Poll element would've been 62 x 125 (62 voters, 125 max points for the new "perfect score" or "max score") or 7,750. You would divide Marshall's 1,313 by the 7,750 to come up with 0.1694 instead of the 0.0084. To calculate the new Harris Poll score it would've been 105 x 125 (105 voters, 125 max points for the max score) or 13,125. To get Marshall's new score divide the 1,010 its earned by the 13,125 and you get 0.0770.

Using Marshall's. 0.1694 and 0.077 along with the 0.55 the conference gave the Herd for their computer element, their new BCS ranking would be 0.2655, or more than the 0.2093 you calculated for Rice.

(Conference USA's official release, with modified formula explained)

The fair way to have done it would've been to just ask the BCS to compute out the ratings until Marshall or Rice showed up in the rankings, as I noted above there was enough data that one of them was going to have an official BCS rating greater than zero, using the BCS' traditional formula.

If that option wasn't good enough for you, you could've used your method, but taken steps to ensure that the three components all received fair weight and one of the components wasn't drastically overvalued. As it stands, you completely bungled the process and penalized a team for your office's ineptitude in math.


Thanks for your time,


Chris McComas

The End of the Big East

It's been said that the Holy Roman Empire was neither Holy, nor Roman and not much of an empire. Kinda like the modern-day Big East Conference. And the Big East, as a football power conference, is about to join the Holy Roman Empire in the ash heap of history.

The seven non-football members of the Big East are expected to pull out - maybe as soon as next week - leaving a rump conference constituted of basically members of Conference USA, circa 2004. While the BCS likely will keep the Big East as an AQ conference in 2013, that'll simply mark the end of its football relevance.

Even if nothing else changes, by the 2014 season, only one of the Big East's seven founding members - Connecticut - will still be in the conference. In fact, UConn will be the only member at the end of the 2004 season that will still remain in the Big East. Of the 12 teams currently expected to play a Big East schedule in 2014, eight used to play in Conference USA, two in the Mountain West, plus Temple, a one-time Big East football member that was invited back in after getting booted.

OK, take a deep breath and let your head stop spinning. Here's our best guess for what the major conferences might look like by 2014-15:

• Big Ten (16 teams): Add Rutgers, Maryland, Virginia, Kansas
• ACC (14 teams): Lose Maryland, Virginia, Florida State; add Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Louisville, Cincinnati, UConn
• Big 12 (10 teams): Lose Kansas; add Florida State
• Pac-12 (12 teams): No change
• SEC (14 teams): No change
• Mountain West (12 teams): Add Boise State, San Diego State, Utah State, San Jose State
• Big East (8 teams): Temple, South Florida, Central Florida, Memphis, SMU, Houston, Tulane, East Carolina

(FULL ARTICLE @ SB NATION)

BCS Weekly News Roundup (Sept. 18)

PAC-10 ON THE RISE (SI.com, Sept. 16) - Can you believe it? The same man who, just a few years ago, probably could have run for governor of Ohio and won in a landslide, is suddenly receiving the John Cooper treatment. I know all those big-game losses are frustrating, Buckeye fans, but let's maintain a little perspective.

COACHING 'FIT' HARD TO FIND (ESPN.com, Sept. 16) - "Fit" is the new buzzword of coaching hirings and firings. It's a tidy word that feeds the collective ego of fans and administrators who believe their program is special. When a coach is successful, it's not just because he recruits good players and teaches them to win. No, he's a good fit. When a coach isn't successful -- especially after he has won at other schools -- he's not a good fit.

BYU SEEKS ANOTHER BCS-BOLSTERING WIN (Panama City News Herald, Sept. 15) - A BYU victory over Florida State would be another building block in what Bronco Mendenhall hopes is a dream season for the Cougars. They are ranked No. 7 in the nation and favored by 7 points on Saturday. It all stems from the opening 14-13 win over Oklahoma.

BREAK UP BCS? JUST WIN, HOUSTON (Nunesmagician, Sept. 15) - Conference USA's Houston returned to the polls for the first time since David Klinger was involved. Their program-changing win in Stillwater not only put them on the map but also jogged the memory of college fans who might have forgotten East Carolina, Tulsa and other upset specialists are lurking in the conference background.

THE GRISLY DEMISE OF TRESSEL BALL (Dr. Saturday, Sept. 14) - There's no sugar-coating this: Jim Tressel and his staff were outcoached against USC and Pete Carroll. Again. Particularly on offense, Ohio State's game plan against the Trojans was utter rubbish, and it failed to meet the No. 1 requirement of every game plan: put your players in position to succeed.

BYU In Line to Bust BCS

Fresno State's loss to Wisconsin eliminated one of the potential contenders fighting for a BCS bowl berth. But three weeks into the season, a handful of non-BCS conference teams still have a reasonably good chance to bust the BCS, headed by Brigham Young, fresh off a 59-0 conquest of UCLA.

USC solidified its hold on the No. 1 spot in the latest unofficial BCS standings. The Trojans, after trouncing then-No. 5 Ohio State, 35-3, dominated both the AP and coaches polls. Oklahoma ascended to the second spot in the polls, but it's Georgia now occupying the No. 2 BCS ranking.

Despite their lackluster 14-7 win over South Carolina and subsequent drop in the polls, the Bulldogs jumped back into the second spot because margin of victory cannot be considered by BCS computers. (This is an issue the Guru will deal with extensively in the coming weeks.) Georgia's superior computer ratings were enough to vault it over the Sooners, who are now No. 3, followed by Florida, last week's No. 2 but idle this past weekend.

Missouri, LSU, Wisconsin, Auburn, Texas and Alabama round out the top 10.

Just outside of the top 10 sits Brigham Young, which jumped up six spots to No. 11. The Cougars are also 11th in the coaches poll and 7th in two BCS computers.

This scenario bodes well for BYU, which will try to win its first BCS bowl berth in school history. The Cougars leapfrogged East Carolina, which sits at No. 15 after a 28-24 victory over Tulane. Two other Mountain West members also cracked the top 25, with Utah at No. 18 and Texas Christian at No. 23.

As long as BYU remains undefeated, there would be almost no foreseeable circumstances that could keep it from getting a BCS berth. Because of the strength of the MWC - which just went 4-0 against the Pac-10 last Saturday - it's nearly impossible for ECU to get by BYU in either the polls or the computers. In fact, if both BYU and Utah remain unbeaten when they face each other in the season finale, the winner of that Nov. 22 game will certainly earn a BCS bowl berth, even if the Pirates go 13-0 and win the Conference USA title.

A BCS berth, meanwhile, is about all Ohio State has to play for after its drubbing by USC at the Coliseum. The Buckeyes fell to No. 16 in the BCS standings, and, with too many unbeaten teams still ahead of them and the weakness of the Big Ten, a return to a third consecutive BCS title game is just about out of the question. As it is, five SEC teams and four Big 12 teams are currently ranked ahead of Ohio State.

One team that currently sits in the BCS netherworld but worth keeping an eye on is No. 41 Notre Dame. After their 35-17 win over Michigan last week, the Irish are 2-0 and probably seven or eight wins away from a BCS bowl berth. The schedule is quite favorable for Notre Dame this year, with only the season finale at USC a no-win situation. The Irish are guaranteed a BCS bowl berth if they finish in the top 8 of the final BCS standings, and a top-14 finish makes them eligible - and nearly impossible to pass up - for a BCS bowl.

Gators Lurking At No. 2

Who's No. 1? Who cares. All we need to know is who's No. 2.

In the world of BCS, it's all important being No. 2. At the end of the season, being No. 2 gets you a ticket to the big shindig. And five out of the last six years, the No. 2 team walked away with the BCS crystal ball trophy.

Two weeks into the season, that coveted No. 2 spot is now occupied by Florida, the BCS champion of 2006. USC, idle last weekend, continues to enjoy a comfortable lead at No. 1 in this week's unofficial BCS standings. Georgia, No. 2 in both AP and coaches polls, follows at No. 3 while Oklahoma moves up to No. 4.

The team that suffered almost irreparable harm despite winning last week was Ohio State. The Buckeyes dropped to No. 5 in the BCS standings after needing a muffed punt and a punt return for a touchdown late in the game to put away Ohio, 26-14. The non-loss became damaging because it's turned Ohio State's Saturday showdown at USC into a must-win game.

If the Buckeyes, No. 1 in the preseason, win that game, then all is well - they might move back up to No. 1, even. But if they lose the game, then they can forget about a third consecutive trip to the BCS title game. The pollsters are already extremely suspicious of the Buckeyes after back-to-back thrashing losses the last two years. A loss to USC, especially a lopsided one as the fifth-ranked team, makes it virtually impossible for Ohio State to climb its way back up the BCS ladder.

Two more SEC teams are in the top 10 of the standings, with defending BCS champion LSU coming in at No. 6 and Auburn at No. 9. Two other Big 12 teams - No. 7 Missouri and No. 8 Texas - join Oklahoma in the top 10, with Kansas just outside at No. 11. Wisconsin checks in at No. 10.

The story of the season so far is the performance of non-BCS teams. In this week's standings, four teams from three different non-BCS conferences made the top 25. Conference USA's East Carolina, the leading BCS Buster candidate at the moment, is the highest ranked at No. 16. The Pirates' ranking is in fact hurt by their ridiculously low placement in the coaches poll (No. 20) even after their thumping of then-No. 8 West Virginia.

The Mountain West's Brigham Young and Utah, each already with a victory over BCS conference teams, are at No. 17 and No. 20, respectively. Fresno State, seeking the WAC's third consecutive BCS invitation, is at No. 23, with a Saturday home date against Wisconsin coming up.

While all the non-BCS conference teams are vying for just a single BCS invitation, the ACC and Big East are sitting pretty with automatic bids, despite dreadful performances in the season's first two weeks. Wake Forest is the ACC's lone representative in the top 25, and the Demon Deacons needed a Sam Swank 41-yard field goal with three seconds left to thwart SEC also-ran Ole Miss.

The Big East has little to brag about, either. South Florida and Connecticut are the only conference teams without a loss right now and both needed overtime to stay unbeaten last week (over Central Florida and Temple, respectively). West Virginia, expected to be the standard-bearer of the conference, plummeted to No. 24 after taking a beating from East Carolina.

Beware of the Pirates

It's only the second weekend of the season and the BCS bowl jockeying has already started. Such is the beauty (and the beauty pageant nature) of college football.

Shortly after East Carolina's resounding 24-3 triumph over West Virginia - its second victory over a BCS conference team in as many weeks - I received a nervous e-mail from a good friend asking if he should be worried about those men in purple. You see, he roots for a BCS conference team and a potential BCS buster like the Pirates just might ruin his plans by stealing a possible at-large BCS bid.

My response?

Be afraid. Be very afraid.

East Carolina is the team to watch for this year's BCS buster race. In 2006, we had Boise State. Last year, it was Hawaii. Before the start of this season, the chic pick was Fresno State. And the Bulldogs certainly were quite persuasive in a 24-7 opening week win at Rutgers.

But Fresno State, No. 24 in the unofficial BCS standings, has a pretty ambitious - and therefore tough - schedule ahead of it. The Dawgs host Wisconsin next week and has a trip to the Rose Bowl against a rejuvenated UCLA team on Sept. 27. And the WAC schedule is best not to be overlooked as well, not when Fresno finishes the season with a date on the blue turf against Boise State.

A couple of Mountain West teams also have aspirations to be a BCS buster. Utah, with a conquest in the Big House already in the bag, should be the odds-on favorite to win the conference. Then there's the Utes' sworn enemy Brigham Young, which narrowly escaped Washington with a win on Saturday. The Cougars still need to get by UCLA next week and they finish the season with a pair of daunting road games at Air Force and archrival Utah.

But of all the non-BCS teams vying for a big BCS payday, no one would possess a better resume than East Carolina should it win out. The Pirates have already beaten (then-No. 17) Virginia Tech and No. 8 West Virginia. Their four non-conference games are all against BCS conference opponents (North Carolina State and Virginia still remain). If ECU runs the table, it would finish the regular season with a 13-0 record and 4-0 against teams in the Big East and ACC (with two probable conference champions). That would be good enough to lock up a BCS berth.

In fact, East Carolina's toughest remaining contest might be the Conference USA championship game, against perhaps either Rice or Tulsa. Whether the Pirates can handle that kind of pressure just might decide the BCS bowl pecking order, because the burden of having to win one last game to earn a BCS bid has proved to be enormous.

An astounding eight times (out of 23 opportunities), a higher ranked team, needing only a win to clinch either a BCS title game berth or a BCS bowl bid, lost to an underdog in the conference championship game in the BCS Era (1998-2007). Add three other choke jobs (UCLA in 1998, USC in 2006 and West Virginia in 2007) - when a team lost its final regular-season game to blow a shot at the BCS title game - the pressure of the "last big game" has manifested itself time and again.

And who better than East Carolina coach Skip Holtz should understand that? He was a 29-year-old offensive coordinator (under his father Lou) for Notre Dame in 1993 when the No. 1-ranked Irish needed only a home win over Boston College to secure a shot at the national championship. Instead, the Holtzs watched Tom Coughlin's Eagles pull out a 41-39 upset on David Gordon's 41-yard field goal as time expired.

Notre Dame has not recovered from that loss. Neither has Lou Holtz. Skip Holtz might remember that a bit more vividly later in the season should the Pirates continue their run at a BCS bid.

But we're only two weeks into the season. Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves.


(For you Notre Dame fans - and haters - here's a trip down memory lane)