Should a team that got blown out by Kentucky get a BCS bowl berth?
That's the burning question - not who's No. 1 or No. 2 - from the latest BCS standings. Kent State is on the precipice of becoming the first MAC team to land a BCS bid. At No. 17, the Golden Flashes need to move up just one spot in next week's final standings to secure a huge payday for their conference.
But should they get a spot? Does a team that accounted for Kentucky's only victory over an FBS team this season be playing in the Orange Bowl in Miami?
That's right, the Wildcats went 2-10 this season, which was good enough to get their coach fired. They beat FCS Samford in their penultimate game before getting pummeled by coachless-Tennessee in the season finale. But UK didn't just beat, but routed Kent State, 47-14, in the second game of the season.
But ah, when has "deserve" ever meant anything in the history of the BCS?
The fact is, Kent State is 11-1 and will be facing 11-1 Northern Illinois in the MAC championship game next Friday. With a victory, and a little help, the Golden Flashes could snag the final BCS bowl slot, as the other nine berths are already spoken for - six conference champions plus Notre Dame, Florida and Oregon will all go BCS bowling.
On paper, it looks as if Kent State just needs a UCLA loss in the Pac-12 championship game (and of course, winning the MAC championship) to accomplish the goal. That might be the one and only path the Golden Flashes have to the top 16. Losses by either Nebraska in the Big Ten title game to Wisconsin or a shocking upset loss by Florida State to Georgia Tech in the ACC title game might not be enough to help Kent State to move up that single spot.
This also means that neither Boise State nor Northern Illinois has a realistic chance of rising into the top 16. While the Huskies can beat Kent State in the MAC title game, their current spot at No. 21 in the BCS standings makes it about a bridge too far for them to close that gap. The same goes for Boise State, at No. 20 and facing 7-4 Nevada in the season finale, the Broncos simply have no chance of making up four spots.
By the time the MAC championship game takes place, we should already know which team would represent the Big East in the BCS. Rutgers hosts Louisville on Thursday in what essentially will be the conference title game. Rutgers can win the Big East outright with a victory, while a tiebreaker featuring the BCS standings will be applied in the event of a Louisville victory.
In the complete BCS standings, you'll find Louisville at No. 26 and Rutgers at No. 27 (and Cincinnati at No. 36 and Syracuse at No. 43), just outside the official top 25. It's certain that if Louisville wins the game, the Cardinals will represent the Big East because they'll be the only conference team to land in the top 25 in the final BCS standings.
(FULL ARTICLE @ SB NATION)
Showing posts with label Bowl Predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bowl Predictions. Show all posts
Monday, November 26, 2012
Monday, November 19, 2012
BCS Chaos for Split Championship
While there are still two more weeks to produce some BCS chaos, let's not overlook the fact that one team on nobody's radar could be locking up a share of the national championship as soon as next week. Ohio State might be out-of-sight, out-of-mind as far as the BCS is concerned, it's very much alive to win the AP national championship, which is every bit as prestigious as the BCS one.
The Buckeyes, currently ranked fourth in the AP poll, is one of only two unbeaten teams left in the country. A victory over Michigan next week will complete Ohio State's season at 12-0, and more significantly, how they play against the Wolverines will have an impact on the voters. Remember, Notre Dame needed six Michigan turnovers to get by in that game at home, 13-6.
Should the Irish defeat the Max Wittek-led Trojans to also finish 12-0 next week, they'll be in the BCS title game. And according to Danny Sheridan, they'll also be an underdog - and possibly a double-digit underdog - against any other team currently in the BCS top five in the title game. If Notre Dame is routed in Miami to leave Ohio State as the lone unbeaten team, will the Buckeyes take the AP title?
Or what if Wittek leads USC to an upset at the Coliseum, will that be enough to catapult Ohio State to No. 1 in the AP poll next week? If that's the case, the Buckeyes can size for their national title rings even before November is out. How about that - all the BCS chaos for only half of the national championship?
BCS Bowl Projections
BCS national championship: Notre Dame vs. Alabama
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl: Oregon vs. Kansas State
Rose Bowl: Stanford vs. Nebraska
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. Rutgers
(FULL ARTICLE @ SB NATION)
The Buckeyes, currently ranked fourth in the AP poll, is one of only two unbeaten teams left in the country. A victory over Michigan next week will complete Ohio State's season at 12-0, and more significantly, how they play against the Wolverines will have an impact on the voters. Remember, Notre Dame needed six Michigan turnovers to get by in that game at home, 13-6.
Should the Irish defeat the Max Wittek-led Trojans to also finish 12-0 next week, they'll be in the BCS title game. And according to Danny Sheridan, they'll also be an underdog - and possibly a double-digit underdog - against any other team currently in the BCS top five in the title game. If Notre Dame is routed in Miami to leave Ohio State as the lone unbeaten team, will the Buckeyes take the AP title?
Or what if Wittek leads USC to an upset at the Coliseum, will that be enough to catapult Ohio State to No. 1 in the AP poll next week? If that's the case, the Buckeyes can size for their national title rings even before November is out. How about that - all the BCS chaos for only half of the national championship?
BCS Bowl Projections
BCS national championship: Notre Dame vs. Alabama
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl: Oregon vs. Kansas State
Rose Bowl: Stanford vs. Nebraska
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. Rutgers
(FULL ARTICLE @ SB NATION)
Monday, November 12, 2012
Fiesta and Rose Fighting Over Irish?
Notre Dame's brand name might not be enough to get it into the national championship game (you heard that right, Lou Holtz), but it still has plenty pull when it come time for BCS bowls to make their picks.
Despite appearances - that No. 3 Notre Dame is closer to No. 2 Oregon than Oregon is to No. 1 Kansas State in the latest BCS standings - there is no chance for the Irish to catch either team without needing a loss from them. The Irish have maxed out their computer scores at .990 and are unlikely to get any more support in the polls unless they can rout USC at the Coliseum in two weeks.
But there will be a big consolation prize for Notre Dame, and that'll depend on who finishes first and second in the final BCS standings. The Fiesta Bowl and Rose Bowl are both interested in the Irish. For the Fiesta, Notre Dame was instrumental in helping to build the bowl's reputation when it beat West Virginia to win the the school's last national championship in 1988. For the Irish, they'd get a chance to erase some awful memories as they have dropped their last three bowl games in the desert.
The Rose Bowl ideally would like to keep its traditional Big Ten-Pac 12 matchup, but it might not have the option. In fact, if the Fiesta gets to pick first and selects Notre Dame, the Rose might have to opt for Oklahoma because of a lack of BCS eligible Pac-12 teams. After Oregon, currently only Stanford is in the BCS top 14. But the Cardinal still have to play the Ducks, as does No. 16 Oregon State and the winner of the No. 17 UCLA-No. 18 USC game. If Oregon does run the table and go to the title game, none of those teams will be in the top 14.
After having had TCU, Texas and Oklahoma in Pasadena in the past decade as per the auspices of the BCS, the Rose Bowl is intrigued by having Notre Dame back for the first time since the days of Knute Rockne. The Irish defeated Stanford 27-10 in the 1925 game. It was Notre Dame's first bowl appearance and its only one until 1970 as the school self-imposed a bowl ban for nearly half a century.
BCS Bowl Projections
BCS national championship - Kansas State vs. Oregon
Fiesta Bowl - Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M
Rose Bowl - Oklahoma vs. Nebraska
Sugar Bowl - Alabama vs. Clemson
Orange Bowl - Florida State vs. Louisville
Despite appearances - that No. 3 Notre Dame is closer to No. 2 Oregon than Oregon is to No. 1 Kansas State in the latest BCS standings - there is no chance for the Irish to catch either team without needing a loss from them. The Irish have maxed out their computer scores at .990 and are unlikely to get any more support in the polls unless they can rout USC at the Coliseum in two weeks.
But there will be a big consolation prize for Notre Dame, and that'll depend on who finishes first and second in the final BCS standings. The Fiesta Bowl and Rose Bowl are both interested in the Irish. For the Fiesta, Notre Dame was instrumental in helping to build the bowl's reputation when it beat West Virginia to win the the school's last national championship in 1988. For the Irish, they'd get a chance to erase some awful memories as they have dropped their last three bowl games in the desert.
The Rose Bowl ideally would like to keep its traditional Big Ten-Pac 12 matchup, but it might not have the option. In fact, if the Fiesta gets to pick first and selects Notre Dame, the Rose might have to opt for Oklahoma because of a lack of BCS eligible Pac-12 teams. After Oregon, currently only Stanford is in the BCS top 14. But the Cardinal still have to play the Ducks, as does No. 16 Oregon State and the winner of the No. 17 UCLA-No. 18 USC game. If Oregon does run the table and go to the title game, none of those teams will be in the top 14.
After having had TCU, Texas and Oklahoma in Pasadena in the past decade as per the auspices of the BCS, the Rose Bowl is intrigued by having Notre Dame back for the first time since the days of Knute Rockne. The Irish defeated Stanford 27-10 in the 1925 game. It was Notre Dame's first bowl appearance and its only one until 1970 as the school self-imposed a bowl ban for nearly half a century.
BCS Bowl Projections
BCS national championship - Kansas State vs. Oregon
Fiesta Bowl - Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M
Rose Bowl - Oklahoma vs. Nebraska
Sugar Bowl - Alabama vs. Clemson
Orange Bowl - Florida State vs. Louisville
Monday, November 5, 2012
Who's Going to Get BCS's Millions?
Let's forget the Oregon-vs.-Kansas State narrative for a moment because there will be plenty of time to dissect that to pieces in the coming weeks. Nothing has really changed since our projections yesterday pretty much covered all the bases.
But besides the coveted two spots for the BCS championship game, there are four other BCS bowls with lucrative payouts. Money, you see, is the lifeblood of college sports (please take a moment to purge all the NCAA "student-athlete" propaganda garbage out of your mind). And with the five BCS games, dollar amounts equaling GDPs of small nations (OK, like Nauru and Tuvalu, not Belgium) will be doled out to various institutions of higher learning.
And after allowing the have-nots to crash the BCS party for five consecutive seasons from 2006 to 2010, this looks to be the second consecutive season where the automatic-qualifying conferences will hoard nearly all the cash. With San Diego State's upset victory at Boise State late Saturday, it appears that no non-AQ team will meet the stiff qualifying threshold currently set at No. 12. Louisiana Tech, the highest-ranked non-AQ team, is No. 20 in the latest BCS standings.
That leaves the six BCS conferences and Notre Dame to divvy up the 10 BCS bowl slots. And here we have a breakdown of the teams most likely to visit a BCS bowl near you, in order of likelihood:
1. Alabama - After getting by LSU, the Crimson Tide will be assured of their fourth BCS bowl berth in five years, even if they lose the SEC championship game against likely foe Georgia. An SEC title game win sends Alabama to the BCS championship game and a loss sends it to the Fiesta Bowl.
2. Notre Dame - The Irish are assured of a BCS bowl berth if they finish in the top eight of the final BCS standings. And even with a loss to USC, they will be picked by a BCS bowl so long as they're in the top 14 of the final standings. If Oregon ends up in the BCS title game, look for Notre Dame to make its second Rose Bowl appearance after it last played in the 1925 game under Knute Rockne.
3. Kansas State - By winning two of its remaining three games, the Wildcats will clinch the Big 12 title and at worst a Fiesta Bowl berth. About the only way K-State would be shut out of its second BCS bowl appearance is if it goes 0-3 in its final three games ... not gonna happen.
4. Oregon - The Ducks are assured of a Rose Bowl berth if it wins the Pac-12 title, but probably will get a Fiesta Bowl berth if they lose their first game in the Pac-12 championship game. Unless it stumbles badly in the closing weeks, Oregon will be playing in its fourth straight BCS bowl game.
5. Florida State - There is no path for the Seminoles to make it to the BCS title game as a one-loss team, and they haven't even clinched their division as Clemson is still hot on their heels. FSU will be the ACC's lone representative in the Orange Bowl if it wins the conference title game. If it loses, it might be shut out.
6/A. Florida - The Gators basically need Georgia to lose to either Auburn or Alabama to have a shot at their first BCS game since the Urban Meyer era. A Bulldogs upset win over the Tide in the SEC title game will bar Florida's path to a BCS bowl bid, but otherwise its prospects are very good.
6/B. Georgia - The Bulldogs can use a Florida State win over Florida to lock up a BCS bowl berth. If that happens, Georgia probably will earn a Sugar Bowl bid even with a loss to Alabama in the SEC championship game since both UGA and UF will have two losses and the Bulldogs did emerge victorious in the Cocktail Party.
7. Oklahoma - The Sooners probably won't have a shot to win the Big 12, but they'll be assured of a BCS bowl berth if they win their final four games. If K-State gets to the BCS title game, Oklahoma most likely will land in Miami as the Fiesta Bowl will opt for Notre Dame and not a rematch with OU.
8. Oregon State - The Beavers might be the Pac-12's only hope of landing a second BCS bowl berth if it can beat Stanford and lose only to the Ducks to finish the season 10-2. Oregon State might play in its first BCS game since the 2001 Fiesta Bowl or, in the event the Rose Bowl passes up on Notre Dame to replace Oregon (say, to avoid a rematch with Michigan), its first appearance in the Granddaddy since the 1965 game.
9. Clemson - The Tigers are absolutely a last-ditch fallback choice in the event of too many SEC teams clogging up the standings and leaving too few qualifying teams in the top 14. The BCS didn't exactly have a great experience with its first multiple ACC selections last season when Clemson was inhumanely destroyed by West Virginia while Virginia Tech lost to Michigan in the overrated bowl.
10. Texas - The Longhorns have quietly returned to the conversation after getting annihilated by Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout. If they can somehow get through the next two games and then upset K-State at home in the season finale, they might steal a BCS bid if OU gets tagged for a third loss.
Big East champion - This is a one-bid conference no matter who wins it.
Big Ten champion - See above. It's a pretty stunning fall for a conference that's nabbed two BCS bowl berths every year since the format expanded to include five games in 2006.
First BCS bowl predictions:
BCS championship - Alabama vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl - Florida vs. Oklahoma
Rose Bowl - Notre Dame vs. Nebraska
Fiesta Bowl - Kansas State vs. Oregon State
Orange Bowl - Florida State vs. Louisville
(FULL ARTICLE @ SB NATION)
But besides the coveted two spots for the BCS championship game, there are four other BCS bowls with lucrative payouts. Money, you see, is the lifeblood of college sports (please take a moment to purge all the NCAA "student-athlete" propaganda garbage out of your mind). And with the five BCS games, dollar amounts equaling GDPs of small nations (OK, like Nauru and Tuvalu, not Belgium) will be doled out to various institutions of higher learning.
And after allowing the have-nots to crash the BCS party for five consecutive seasons from 2006 to 2010, this looks to be the second consecutive season where the automatic-qualifying conferences will hoard nearly all the cash. With San Diego State's upset victory at Boise State late Saturday, it appears that no non-AQ team will meet the stiff qualifying threshold currently set at No. 12. Louisiana Tech, the highest-ranked non-AQ team, is No. 20 in the latest BCS standings.
That leaves the six BCS conferences and Notre Dame to divvy up the 10 BCS bowl slots. And here we have a breakdown of the teams most likely to visit a BCS bowl near you, in order of likelihood:
1. Alabama - After getting by LSU, the Crimson Tide will be assured of their fourth BCS bowl berth in five years, even if they lose the SEC championship game against likely foe Georgia. An SEC title game win sends Alabama to the BCS championship game and a loss sends it to the Fiesta Bowl.
2. Notre Dame - The Irish are assured of a BCS bowl berth if they finish in the top eight of the final BCS standings. And even with a loss to USC, they will be picked by a BCS bowl so long as they're in the top 14 of the final standings. If Oregon ends up in the BCS title game, look for Notre Dame to make its second Rose Bowl appearance after it last played in the 1925 game under Knute Rockne.
3. Kansas State - By winning two of its remaining three games, the Wildcats will clinch the Big 12 title and at worst a Fiesta Bowl berth. About the only way K-State would be shut out of its second BCS bowl appearance is if it goes 0-3 in its final three games ... not gonna happen.
4. Oregon - The Ducks are assured of a Rose Bowl berth if it wins the Pac-12 title, but probably will get a Fiesta Bowl berth if they lose their first game in the Pac-12 championship game. Unless it stumbles badly in the closing weeks, Oregon will be playing in its fourth straight BCS bowl game.
5. Florida State - There is no path for the Seminoles to make it to the BCS title game as a one-loss team, and they haven't even clinched their division as Clemson is still hot on their heels. FSU will be the ACC's lone representative in the Orange Bowl if it wins the conference title game. If it loses, it might be shut out.
6/A. Florida - The Gators basically need Georgia to lose to either Auburn or Alabama to have a shot at their first BCS game since the Urban Meyer era. A Bulldogs upset win over the Tide in the SEC title game will bar Florida's path to a BCS bowl bid, but otherwise its prospects are very good.
6/B. Georgia - The Bulldogs can use a Florida State win over Florida to lock up a BCS bowl berth. If that happens, Georgia probably will earn a Sugar Bowl bid even with a loss to Alabama in the SEC championship game since both UGA and UF will have two losses and the Bulldogs did emerge victorious in the Cocktail Party.
7. Oklahoma - The Sooners probably won't have a shot to win the Big 12, but they'll be assured of a BCS bowl berth if they win their final four games. If K-State gets to the BCS title game, Oklahoma most likely will land in Miami as the Fiesta Bowl will opt for Notre Dame and not a rematch with OU.
8. Oregon State - The Beavers might be the Pac-12's only hope of landing a second BCS bowl berth if it can beat Stanford and lose only to the Ducks to finish the season 10-2. Oregon State might play in its first BCS game since the 2001 Fiesta Bowl or, in the event the Rose Bowl passes up on Notre Dame to replace Oregon (say, to avoid a rematch with Michigan), its first appearance in the Granddaddy since the 1965 game.
9. Clemson - The Tigers are absolutely a last-ditch fallback choice in the event of too many SEC teams clogging up the standings and leaving too few qualifying teams in the top 14. The BCS didn't exactly have a great experience with its first multiple ACC selections last season when Clemson was inhumanely destroyed by West Virginia while Virginia Tech lost to Michigan in the overrated bowl.
10. Texas - The Longhorns have quietly returned to the conversation after getting annihilated by Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout. If they can somehow get through the next two games and then upset K-State at home in the season finale, they might steal a BCS bid if OU gets tagged for a third loss.
Big East champion - This is a one-bid conference no matter who wins it.
Big Ten champion - See above. It's a pretty stunning fall for a conference that's nabbed two BCS bowl berths every year since the format expanded to include five games in 2006.
First BCS bowl predictions:
BCS championship - Alabama vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl - Florida vs. Oklahoma
Rose Bowl - Notre Dame vs. Nebraska
Fiesta Bowl - Kansas State vs. Oregon State
Orange Bowl - Florida State vs. Louisville
(FULL ARTICLE @ SB NATION)
Friday, December 17, 2010
Bowling With the Guru (Third Time's the Charm?)
Albert Einstein once remarked that insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
So for the third time in four years, the Guru will attempt to handicap all the bowl games despite that the first two predictions have turned out to be disastrously off-the-mark.
I may be crazy here (didn't he just already say that?), but I think this time it will be different. In fact, I am doubling down this year. Not only am I picking the games, I'm picking them against the spread.
Before they drag me away in a straitjacket to Nurse Ratched's padded white room, here are the Guru's fearless predictions for the 2010 bowl season:
Shaky Picks
(I don't feel great about these games, but am picking them for the heck of it):
Pretty Good Picks
(I would wager a small amount on these games, maybe $22 to win $20)
Almost Sure-Thing Picks
(I wouldn't bet the house on it, but maybe a Benjamin)
Stone-Cold Locks
(Need I say more?)
Let's come back on Jan. 11 to see if Einstein was right.
So for the third time in four years, the Guru will attempt to handicap all the bowl games despite that the first two predictions have turned out to be disastrously off-the-mark.
I may be crazy here (didn't he just already say that?), but I think this time it will be different. In fact, I am doubling down this year. Not only am I picking the games, I'm picking them against the spread.
Before they drag me away in a straitjacket to Nurse Ratched's padded white room, here are the Guru's fearless predictions for the 2010 bowl season:
Shaky Picks
(I don't feel great about these games, but am picking them for the heck of it):
- New Orleans: Troy -2.5 over Ohio
- Poinsettia: San Diego State - 4.5 over Navy
- Independence: Air Force -3 over Georgia Tech
- Pinstripe: Kansas State +1 over Syracuse
- Chick-fil-A: Florida State +3 over South Carolina
- Rose: TCU -1.5 over Wisconsin
- Sugar: Arkansas +3.5 over Ohio State
- Cotton: LSU -2 over Texas A&M
- BBVA Compass: Kentucky +3 over Pittsburgh
- BCS Championship: Auburn -3.5 over Oregon (A month ago I would've picked Oregon to win this game outright, but Auburn has played better of late and Cam Newton just can't be stopped, not even by the NCAA)
Pretty Good Picks
(I would wager a small amount on these games, maybe $22 to win $20)
- Beef-O-Brady: Southern Miss +3 over Louisville
- Las Vegas: Boise State +18 over Utah
- Little Caesars: Florida International +1.5 over Toledo
- Champs Sports: West Virginia -3 over NC State
- Insight: Missouri -1 over Iowa
- Military: Maryland -7.5 over East Carolina
- Alamo: Oklahoma State -6 over Arizona
- Music City: Tennessee +2 over North Carolina
- Holiday: Washington +15 over Nebraska
- Meineke Car Care: South Florida +5 over Clemson
- Sun: Notre Dame +3 over Miami (Fla.)
- Outback: Florida -7.5 over Penn State
- Fiesta: Oklahoma -17 over Connecticut
- Orange: Stanford -3.5 over Virginia Tech
- GoDaddy.com: Middle Tennessee State +1 over Miami (Ohio)
Almost Sure-Thing Picks
(I wouldn't bet the house on it, but maybe a Benjamin)
- New Mexico: BYU -11.5 over UTEP
- Humanitarian: Fresno State +1 over Northern Illinois (NIU has a good record, but whom have the Huskies played?)
- Hawaii: Hawaii -11 over Tulsa (This is a huge home field advantage, bigger than ND at South Bend)
- Texas: Baylor -1 over Illinois
- Armed Forces: SMU -8 over Army (Like Hawaii, a literal home game for the Mustangs)
- Liberty: Georgia -7 over Central Florida
- Kraft Fight Hunger: Nevada -4.5 over Boston College (When will the Pack get some love from the national media?)
Stone-Cold Locks
(Need I say more?)
- Ticket City: Texas Tech -10 over Northwestern (It's a lot of points to lay, but the banged-up Wildcats have no chance in a game just about on the Red Raiders' turf)
- CapitalOne: Alabama -10 over Michigan State (Nick Saban didn't leave Sparty so he could lose a game like this)
- Gator: Mississippi State -4.5 over Michigan (The end of RichRod. Hello, Harbaugh!)
Let's come back on Jan. 11 to see if Einstein was right.
Friday, December 18, 2009
Bowl Extravaganza
Call the Guru a glutton for punishment.
Two years ago, I handicapped all 32 bowl games ... and let's just say I was as successful as the French army was in May 1940. It was so bad that I didn't even bother tallying the damage.
But since time heals all wounds, I'm diving into the muddled waters of bowl predictions again. So here are my picks, along with a nugget or two, on the 34 bowl games this season, listed in chronological order:
New Mexico - Fresno State over Wyoming.
St. Petersburg - I thought Rutgers was a fraud all season long. Not changing that view here, going with Central Florida.
New Orleans - Middle Tennessee over Southern Miss.
Las Vegas - Oregon State deserves so much better than this. Take the Beavers over BYU.
Poinsettia - Utah gets one back for the Mountain West, over Jahvid Best-less Cal.
Hawaii - SMU's June Jones makes a triumphant return to the islands, but Nevada wins over his Mustangs.
Little Caesars - Marshall over Ohio.
Meineke Car Care - Pitt loses three in a row to end the season, this one goes to North Carolina.
Emerald - Will USC get up for this game? Barely, but that's enough to beat Boston College.
Music City - Clemson over Kentucky.
Independence - Texas A&M, riding the hot arm of Jerrod Johnson, gets enough offense to beat Georgia.
EagleBank - UCLA needed Army to lose to get a bowl bid, and makes the most of it by beating Temple.
Champs Sports - Miami has too much speed for plodding Wisconsin, another vastly overrated team from the Big Ten/11 soon to be 12.
Humanitarian - Idaho over Bowling Green.
Holiday - This could've been the Stoops Bowl, but Bob couldn't make it. So Mike's Arizona takes it out on Nebraska.
Armed Forces - Houston's high-octane offense grounds Air Force.
Sun - The most interesting non-BCS bowl game in the lot. Stanford in a tight one, thanks to over 200 rushing yards by Toby Gerhart, over Oklahoma.
Texas - Navy votes nay on Missouri going to the Big Ten/11 soon to be 12.
Insight - Minnesota over Iowa State.
Chick-fil-A - Without hostesses as a distraction, Tennessee still comes up short against Virginia Tech.
Outback - Northwestern has been sneaky good this year. The Wildcats surprise Auburn.
Capital One - JoePa's tam has not beaten anybody of substance this season. Penn State isn't about to start now against LSU.
Gator - In Bobby Bowden's farewell, featuring the two Division I-A teams he coached, West Virginia spoils it by denying him a final victory at Florida State.
Rose - Oregon has just too much speed for Ohio State.
Sugar - Think Florida isn't going to show up to play this game? You must not have heard of this guy named Tim Tebow. He's not going to lose his final college game to Cincinnati.
International - In turmoil, South Florida still beats Northern Illinois.
PapaJohns.com - South Carolina over UConn.
Cotton - In the first Cotton Bowl played at Cowboys Stadium, Ole Miss beats Oklahoma State as Jerry Jones gets ready to make a pitch to be part of the BCS.
Liberty - Ryan Mallett has a field day as Arkansas routs East Carolina.
Alamo - Texas Tech over Michigan State.
Fiesta - In the "People's Championship," viewed by the smallest TV audience in BCS history, TCU gets by Boise State to finish an undefeated season.
Orange - Georgia Tech runs wild against a perplexed Iowa team.
GMAC - Troy over Cincinnati's farm school, er, Central Michigan.
BCS National Championship - Alabama returns to the top of college football world, routs Texas to win its first national title since 1992.
Two years ago, I handicapped all 32 bowl games ... and let's just say I was as successful as the French army was in May 1940. It was so bad that I didn't even bother tallying the damage.
But since time heals all wounds, I'm diving into the muddled waters of bowl predictions again. So here are my picks, along with a nugget or two, on the 34 bowl games this season, listed in chronological order:
New Mexico - Fresno State over Wyoming.
St. Petersburg - I thought Rutgers was a fraud all season long. Not changing that view here, going with Central Florida.
New Orleans - Middle Tennessee over Southern Miss.
Las Vegas - Oregon State deserves so much better than this. Take the Beavers over BYU.
Poinsettia - Utah gets one back for the Mountain West, over Jahvid Best-less Cal.
Hawaii - SMU's June Jones makes a triumphant return to the islands, but Nevada wins over his Mustangs.
Little Caesars - Marshall over Ohio.
Meineke Car Care - Pitt loses three in a row to end the season, this one goes to North Carolina.
Emerald - Will USC get up for this game? Barely, but that's enough to beat Boston College.
Music City - Clemson over Kentucky.
Independence - Texas A&M, riding the hot arm of Jerrod Johnson, gets enough offense to beat Georgia.
EagleBank - UCLA needed Army to lose to get a bowl bid, and makes the most of it by beating Temple.
Champs Sports - Miami has too much speed for plodding Wisconsin, another vastly overrated team from the Big Ten/11 soon to be 12.
Humanitarian - Idaho over Bowling Green.
Holiday - This could've been the Stoops Bowl, but Bob couldn't make it. So Mike's Arizona takes it out on Nebraska.
Armed Forces - Houston's high-octane offense grounds Air Force.
Sun - The most interesting non-BCS bowl game in the lot. Stanford in a tight one, thanks to over 200 rushing yards by Toby Gerhart, over Oklahoma.
Texas - Navy votes nay on Missouri going to the Big Ten/11 soon to be 12.
Insight - Minnesota over Iowa State.
Chick-fil-A - Without hostesses as a distraction, Tennessee still comes up short against Virginia Tech.
Outback - Northwestern has been sneaky good this year. The Wildcats surprise Auburn.
Capital One - JoePa's tam has not beaten anybody of substance this season. Penn State isn't about to start now against LSU.
Gator - In Bobby Bowden's farewell, featuring the two Division I-A teams he coached, West Virginia spoils it by denying him a final victory at Florida State.
Rose - Oregon has just too much speed for Ohio State.
Sugar - Think Florida isn't going to show up to play this game? You must not have heard of this guy named Tim Tebow. He's not going to lose his final college game to Cincinnati.
International - In turmoil, South Florida still beats Northern Illinois.
PapaJohns.com - South Carolina over UConn.
Cotton - In the first Cotton Bowl played at Cowboys Stadium, Ole Miss beats Oklahoma State as Jerry Jones gets ready to make a pitch to be part of the BCS.
Liberty - Ryan Mallett has a field day as Arkansas routs East Carolina.
Alamo - Texas Tech over Michigan State.
Fiesta - In the "People's Championship," viewed by the smallest TV audience in BCS history, TCU gets by Boise State to finish an undefeated season.
Orange - Georgia Tech runs wild against a perplexed Iowa team.
GMAC - Troy over Cincinnati's farm school, er, Central Michigan.
BCS National Championship - Alabama returns to the top of college football world, routs Texas to win its first national title since 1992.
Sunday, December 16, 2007
Bowling with the Guru
'Tis the season to celebrate mediocrity. Heck, even if your team went 6-6 and got its coach fired, that's not enough of a reason for them to be home for the holidays. Chances are, there will be a spot in Toronto, Detroit, Boise or even Honolulu for the guys.
But the Guru understands that there's big money involved in the bowls. And I'm not even talking about the $17 million payout to BCS teams. While the Guru would be "shocked! shocked!" that there would be gambling going on in places not inside Nevada, that's no reason to look at the point spread from a recreational perspective.
So here's the Guru's comprehensive picks on the 32 bowl games, listed chronologically:
* Poinsettia @ San Diego (Dec. 20) -- Utah (-8 1/2) vs. Navy. This looks like an even matchup on paper, but it's anything but. The Utes won eight straight before a narrow loss to BYU in the last regular season game. Navy's looking for a coach.
* New Orleans (Dec. 21) -- Memphis (+ 2 1/2) vs. Florida Atlantic. The Guru has no idea why FAU should be the favorite in this game.
* Papa John @ Birmingham, Ala. (Dec. 22) -- Cincinnati (-11) vs. Southern Miss. The Bearcats might be disappointed that they didn't end up in a better bowl. Other than that, they should win in a walk.
* New Mexico @ Albuquerque (Dec. 22) -- New Mexico (-3) vs. Nevada. This is a Lobos home game against a 6-6 WAC team.
* Las Vegas (Dec. 22) -- BYU (-6) vs. UCLA. The Bruins might have beaten the Cougars earlier in the season, but they're now in tatters and without a coach. The Pac-10 is always horrible in second-tier bowl games as well.
* Hawaii @ Honolulu (Dec. 23) -- Boise State (-10 1/2) vs. East Carolina. The Broncos are pretty acclimated with the islands after having been there just a month ago in a loss to Hawai'i.
* Motor City @ Detroit (Dec. 26) -- Central Michigan (+8 1/2) vs. Purdue. The Boilermakers lost their final three games and probably won't be all that geeked about playing in a lower tier bowl game.
* Holiday @ San Diego (Dec. 27) -- Arizona State (+2) vs. Texas. This is a toughie. ASU has been a bit shaky down the stretch, but getting up for this game -- even after a BCS snub -- shouldn't be a problem.
* Champs Sports @ Orlando (Dec. 28) -- Boston College (-3 1/2) vs. Michigan State. The Eagles are clearly the better team -- they just have to overcome the disappointment of ending up here after being ranked No. 2 earlier in the season.
* Texas @ Houston (Dec. 28) -- TCU (-3 1/2) vs. Houston. Despite being the road team, the Horned Frogs should have no trouble against their former SWC mates.
* Emerald @ San Francisco (Dec. 28) -- Oregon State (-5) vs. Maryland. This really is a mismatch. The Beavers have flown under the radar despite losing only once (to USC) after beginning the season 2-3.
* Meineke Car Care @ Charlotte (Dec. 29) -- Wake Forest (-3) vs. Connecticut. The Demon Deacons played very well down the stretch, can't say the same for UConn, who got blown out in two of its final three games.
* Liberty @ Memphis (Dec. 29) -- Central Florida (-3) vs. Mississippi State. Probably the hardest pick of the bowl season, UCF gets the edge against an SEC team because of RB Kevin Smith.
* Alamo @ San Antonio (Dec. 29) -- Texas A&M (+5 1/2) vs. Penn State. The Aggies are in turmoil, but the Nittany Lions just have been so unimpressive that it's hard to take them against an underdog playing near its home turf.
* Independence @ Shreveport (Dec. 30) -- Alabama (-3 1/2) vs. Colorado. Two storied programs. Two lousy football teams. This game screams why there are too many bowl games. Why should we take 'Bama, which has lost four straight? Uh, at least they'll have fans at the game.
* Armed Forces @ Fort Worth (Dec. 31) -- Air Force (+3 1/2) vs. California. The Golden Bears' late-season collapse should be complete with this loss. AFA is counting on fan support from the nearby Abilene AFB.
* Sun @ El Paso (Dec. 31) -- South Florida (-6 1/2) vs. Oregon. Another Pac-10 team will finish the season with a flourish (by losing). At least the Ducks have the excuse of losing the erstwhile Heisman favorite Dennis Dixon.
* Humanitarian @ Boise, Idaho (Dec. 31) -- Fresno State (+4 1/2) vs. Georgia Tech. If there is a lock game this bowl season, this is a top candidate. Fresno State has been consistently good throughout the season. Georgia Tech is playing without a coach.
* Music City @ Nashville, Tenn. (Dec. 31) -- Kentucky (-3) vs. Florida State. There really isn't much to like about either team, but at least the Wildcats were fighting in every game. The same can't be said for FSU.
* Insight @ Tempe, Ariz. (Dec. 31) -- Oklahoma State (-4) vs. Indiana. The Cowboys have been struggling late in the season, but Mike Gundy will turn this around because "I am a man! I'm 40!"
* Chick-Fil-A @ Atlanta (Dec. 31) -- Clemson (-2) vs. Auburn. In a battle of the Tigers, Clemson has been hot down the stretch, winning five of its last six games and narrowly losing to Boston College.
* Outback @ Tampa (Jan. 1) -- Tennessee (-3) vs. Wisconsin. The Vols have enjoyed a renaissance late in the season, even if they won a few squeakers. The Badgers padded their record against woeful competition.
* Cotton @ Dallas (Jan. 1) -- Missouri (-3) vs. Arkansas. Can the Tigers stop Darren McFadden? If they can, then they should be able to win this game going away.
* CapitalOne @ Orlando (Jan. 1) -- Florida (-10) vs. Michigan. Sure, 10 points are a lot to give in a big bowl game like this, but Lloyd Carr's retirement or not, this is a huge mismatch. The Wolverines simply won't be able to keep up with Tim Tebow and the Gators.
* Gator @ Jacksonville, Fla. (Jan. 1) -- Texas Tech (-6) vs. Virginia. The Red Raiders might be up-and-down a bit. But against a bowl opponent who's never seen the likes of them, they're awfully difficult to stop.
* Rose @ Pasadena, Calif. (Jan. 1) -- Illinois (+13 1/2) vs. USC. This is not your typical Big Ten-Pac-10 matchup. The Trojans might be healthy now, but they'll have their hands full with Rashard Mendenhall and Juice Williams.
* Sugar @ New Orleans (Jan. 1) -- Hawai'i (+8 1/2) vs. Georgia. Colt Brennan gets all the attention, but the Warriors have a fleet of receivers who are itching to showcase their skills. The Bulldogs will have their hands full.
* Fiesta @ Glendale, Ariz. (Jan. 2) -- Oklahoma (-6 1/2) vs. West Virginia. The Sooners are mad and have lot to prove. The Mountaineers are sad and probably will get run over.
* Orange @ Miami (Jan. 3) -- Virginia Tech (-3 1/2) vs. Kansas. The Jayhawks' dream season will end with two resounding losses. The Hokies are good enough to play for the national championship, KU isn't.
* International @ Toronto (Jan. 5) -- Ball State (+10) vs. Rutgers. The Cardinals are battle-tested with a tough non-conference schedule. That will pay off against the floundering Scarlet Knights.
* GMAC @ Mobile, Ala. (Jan. 6) -- Tulsa (-4 1/2) vs. Bowling Green. Why the Golden Hurricanes? Why not? And if you're stupid enough to put your rent money on this game, well, that's your business.
* BCS Championship @ New Orleans (Jan. 7) -- Ohio State (+4) vs. LSU. After last year's beatdown by Florida, you'd think the Buckeyes are ripe for a repeat against a similar LSU team. The Guru thinks Jim Tressel has learned his lesson and he'll do a fine job of keeping this game close, even against superior talent. If Ohio State can stay in this game into the fourth quarter, it might even steal a win, a la 2002 against Miami.
But the Guru understands that there's big money involved in the bowls. And I'm not even talking about the $17 million payout to BCS teams. While the Guru would be "shocked! shocked!" that there would be gambling going on in places not inside Nevada, that's no reason to look at the point spread from a recreational perspective.
So here's the Guru's comprehensive picks on the 32 bowl games, listed chronologically:
* Poinsettia @ San Diego (Dec. 20) -- Utah (-8 1/2) vs. Navy. This looks like an even matchup on paper, but it's anything but. The Utes won eight straight before a narrow loss to BYU in the last regular season game. Navy's looking for a coach.
* New Orleans (Dec. 21) -- Memphis (+ 2 1/2) vs. Florida Atlantic. The Guru has no idea why FAU should be the favorite in this game.
* Papa John @ Birmingham, Ala. (Dec. 22) -- Cincinnati (-11) vs. Southern Miss. The Bearcats might be disappointed that they didn't end up in a better bowl. Other than that, they should win in a walk.
* New Mexico @ Albuquerque (Dec. 22) -- New Mexico (-3) vs. Nevada. This is a Lobos home game against a 6-6 WAC team.
* Las Vegas (Dec. 22) -- BYU (-6) vs. UCLA. The Bruins might have beaten the Cougars earlier in the season, but they're now in tatters and without a coach. The Pac-10 is always horrible in second-tier bowl games as well.
* Hawaii @ Honolulu (Dec. 23) -- Boise State (-10 1/2) vs. East Carolina. The Broncos are pretty acclimated with the islands after having been there just a month ago in a loss to Hawai'i.
* Motor City @ Detroit (Dec. 26) -- Central Michigan (+8 1/2) vs. Purdue. The Boilermakers lost their final three games and probably won't be all that geeked about playing in a lower tier bowl game.
* Holiday @ San Diego (Dec. 27) -- Arizona State (+2) vs. Texas. This is a toughie. ASU has been a bit shaky down the stretch, but getting up for this game -- even after a BCS snub -- shouldn't be a problem.
* Champs Sports @ Orlando (Dec. 28) -- Boston College (-3 1/2) vs. Michigan State. The Eagles are clearly the better team -- they just have to overcome the disappointment of ending up here after being ranked No. 2 earlier in the season.
* Texas @ Houston (Dec. 28) -- TCU (-3 1/2) vs. Houston. Despite being the road team, the Horned Frogs should have no trouble against their former SWC mates.
* Emerald @ San Francisco (Dec. 28) -- Oregon State (-5) vs. Maryland. This really is a mismatch. The Beavers have flown under the radar despite losing only once (to USC) after beginning the season 2-3.
* Meineke Car Care @ Charlotte (Dec. 29) -- Wake Forest (-3) vs. Connecticut. The Demon Deacons played very well down the stretch, can't say the same for UConn, who got blown out in two of its final three games.
* Liberty @ Memphis (Dec. 29) -- Central Florida (-3) vs. Mississippi State. Probably the hardest pick of the bowl season, UCF gets the edge against an SEC team because of RB Kevin Smith.
* Alamo @ San Antonio (Dec. 29) -- Texas A&M (+5 1/2) vs. Penn State. The Aggies are in turmoil, but the Nittany Lions just have been so unimpressive that it's hard to take them against an underdog playing near its home turf.
* Independence @ Shreveport (Dec. 30) -- Alabama (-3 1/2) vs. Colorado. Two storied programs. Two lousy football teams. This game screams why there are too many bowl games. Why should we take 'Bama, which has lost four straight? Uh, at least they'll have fans at the game.
* Armed Forces @ Fort Worth (Dec. 31) -- Air Force (+3 1/2) vs. California. The Golden Bears' late-season collapse should be complete with this loss. AFA is counting on fan support from the nearby Abilene AFB.
* Sun @ El Paso (Dec. 31) -- South Florida (-6 1/2) vs. Oregon. Another Pac-10 team will finish the season with a flourish (by losing). At least the Ducks have the excuse of losing the erstwhile Heisman favorite Dennis Dixon.
* Humanitarian @ Boise, Idaho (Dec. 31) -- Fresno State (+4 1/2) vs. Georgia Tech. If there is a lock game this bowl season, this is a top candidate. Fresno State has been consistently good throughout the season. Georgia Tech is playing without a coach.
* Music City @ Nashville, Tenn. (Dec. 31) -- Kentucky (-3) vs. Florida State. There really isn't much to like about either team, but at least the Wildcats were fighting in every game. The same can't be said for FSU.
* Insight @ Tempe, Ariz. (Dec. 31) -- Oklahoma State (-4) vs. Indiana. The Cowboys have been struggling late in the season, but Mike Gundy will turn this around because "I am a man! I'm 40!"
* Chick-Fil-A @ Atlanta (Dec. 31) -- Clemson (-2) vs. Auburn. In a battle of the Tigers, Clemson has been hot down the stretch, winning five of its last six games and narrowly losing to Boston College.
* Outback @ Tampa (Jan. 1) -- Tennessee (-3) vs. Wisconsin. The Vols have enjoyed a renaissance late in the season, even if they won a few squeakers. The Badgers padded their record against woeful competition.
* Cotton @ Dallas (Jan. 1) -- Missouri (-3) vs. Arkansas. Can the Tigers stop Darren McFadden? If they can, then they should be able to win this game going away.
* CapitalOne @ Orlando (Jan. 1) -- Florida (-10) vs. Michigan. Sure, 10 points are a lot to give in a big bowl game like this, but Lloyd Carr's retirement or not, this is a huge mismatch. The Wolverines simply won't be able to keep up with Tim Tebow and the Gators.
* Gator @ Jacksonville, Fla. (Jan. 1) -- Texas Tech (-6) vs. Virginia. The Red Raiders might be up-and-down a bit. But against a bowl opponent who's never seen the likes of them, they're awfully difficult to stop.
* Rose @ Pasadena, Calif. (Jan. 1) -- Illinois (+13 1/2) vs. USC. This is not your typical Big Ten-Pac-10 matchup. The Trojans might be healthy now, but they'll have their hands full with Rashard Mendenhall and Juice Williams.
* Sugar @ New Orleans (Jan. 1) -- Hawai'i (+8 1/2) vs. Georgia. Colt Brennan gets all the attention, but the Warriors have a fleet of receivers who are itching to showcase their skills. The Bulldogs will have their hands full.
* Fiesta @ Glendale, Ariz. (Jan. 2) -- Oklahoma (-6 1/2) vs. West Virginia. The Sooners are mad and have lot to prove. The Mountaineers are sad and probably will get run over.
* Orange @ Miami (Jan. 3) -- Virginia Tech (-3 1/2) vs. Kansas. The Jayhawks' dream season will end with two resounding losses. The Hokies are good enough to play for the national championship, KU isn't.
* International @ Toronto (Jan. 5) -- Ball State (+10) vs. Rutgers. The Cardinals are battle-tested with a tough non-conference schedule. That will pay off against the floundering Scarlet Knights.
* GMAC @ Mobile, Ala. (Jan. 6) -- Tulsa (-4 1/2) vs. Bowling Green. Why the Golden Hurricanes? Why not? And if you're stupid enough to put your rent money on this game, well, that's your business.
* BCS Championship @ New Orleans (Jan. 7) -- Ohio State (+4) vs. LSU. After last year's beatdown by Florida, you'd think the Buckeyes are ripe for a repeat against a similar LSU team. The Guru thinks Jim Tressel has learned his lesson and he'll do a fine job of keeping this game close, even against superior talent. If Ohio State can stay in this game into the fourth quarter, it might even steal a win, a la 2002 against Miami.
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