Change is not always good and not all changes are equal.
Just because 15 percent of Division I-A teams hired new coaches, it doesn't mean they'll all enjoy success in due time. In fact, some programs are doomed to fail (again) while others are investing in a leap of faith in unfamiliar faces.
Of 120 Division I-A schools, 18 will begin the 2008 season with a different leading man from the ones they started 2007. We'll look these new hires, assess their prospects, and of course, list them according to the grades they received, from the best to worst:
SOUTHERN METHODIST -- June Jones > Phil Bennett: For a moribund program that's not recovered from being the only recipient of the NCAA death penalty, this was quite a coup. Its search process had been futile and rightfully ridiculed, yet SMU's patience paid off at the end. Jones might not re-enact the glory days of Pony Express, but given the school's location and resources, the Mustangs have the potential to be a non-BCS powerhouse. A+
MISSISSIPPI -- Houston Nutt > Ed Orgeron: Firing Coach O wasn't that hard of a decision -- the former USC assistant was a spectacular flop. Getting Nutt, though, makes it all the better for Ole Miss. Here's a very successful coach for various reasons got run out of Arkansas, now he'll have a chance to restore a floundering Rebels program, perhaps at the expense of his alma mater. A
NEBRASKA -- Bo Pelini > Bill Callahan: If there was ever a case of addition by subtraction, this was it. Nebraska earns a good grade by simply getting rid of Callahan, who was ill-suited for the job from Day One. Hiring the defensive coordinator of BCS champion LSU makes it even better. The days of the Black Skirts giving up 70 points per game are probably numbered. A
MICHIGAN -- Rich Rodriguez > Lloyd Carr: This hire would've probably scored better if not for the post-hiring grudge match between West Virginia and Rodriguez's camp. Michigan fumbled the chance to get LSU's Les Miles, yet at the end it ended up with the best young coach in the country. Now if the Wolverines can convince Terrelle Pryor to come to Ann Arbor ... look out! A-
UCLA -- Rick Neuheisel > Karl Dorrell: Make no mistake, this was a great hire. Neuheisel, an alum who cut his coaching teeth under former Bruins head man Terry Donahue, is the only one UCLA could've hired that might put a little scare in the crosstown Trojan Empire. He's already made great choices in coordinators with the retention of DeWayne Walker and addition of Norm Chow. Don't worry about all the NCAA stuff, that's ancient history. A-
GEORGIA TECH -- Paul Johnson > Chan Gailey: There was really nothing left for Johnson to accomplish at Navy, really. Now he'll find out whether a variation of his option attack can work in a BCS conference. Johnson knows the area, having been the head coach at Georgia Southern before joining the Naval Academy. The question is, can he get the right kind of athletes to run his system. B+
NORTHERN ILLINOIS -- Jerry Kill > Joe Novak: Northern Illinois raided its in-state neighbor for this hire. Kill moves up literally (from Southern Illinois) and figuratively (from I-AA) to a program that's a powerhouse in MAC. Before going 2-10 in 2007, Novak had led the Huskies to seven straight winning seasons and two bowl appearances. B+
ARKANSAS -- Bobby Petrino > Houston Nutt: If you can somehow separate Petrino the coach from Petrino the man, this would've been a grade A hire. Unfortunately, Petrino came with so much baggage that it must be considered. How long will it take before he casts a wandering eye elsewhere? At the end of the 2008 season, in the middle of the 2008 season? And can you really take his word for anything? History says no. B
BAYLOR -- Art Briles > Guy Morriss: Baylor was the 12th and last entry into the Big 12, and often times it really doesn't act/play like a BCS conference team. Briles will have to work near-miracles to turn around the fortunes of Baylor, which has had 12 straight losing seasons. The situation is so dire that the school's most illustrious alum, Mike Singletary, turned down the job. B
HOUSTON -- Kevin Sumlin > Art Briles: Of all the off-season new hires, the Cougars are the only one who landed a black coach, the eighth among 120 Division I-A teams. Sumlin earned valuable experience under the tutelage of Bob Stoops at Oklahoma and this past season helped develop freshman quarterback Sam Bradford. Houston, given its location in a recruit-rich area, has the potential to become a non-BCS powerhouse, much like SMU. B
NAVY -- Ken Niumatalolo > Paul Johnson: The Naval Academy was probably pretty well prepared for Johnson's eventual departure -- for the past 2-3 years it was just a matter of when. Niumatalolo is very familiar with the system and is well regarded by his players, and he's aware Johnson set the bar very high. He also becomes the first Division I-A coach of Samoan descent. B
TEXAS A&M -- Mike Sherman > Dennis Franchione: A former pro coach returning to the college ranks, hmmm, we've heard this before. But Sherman has had a long association with A&M, including a two-part, seven-year stint as an assistant for R.C. Slocum. Franchione did most everything wrong in the eyes of the Aggies, but he did manage to beat Texas a few times. Sherman will have to be even better than that. B
WASHINGTON STATE -- Paul Wulff > Bill Doba: WSU toyed around with the idea of luring back former coach Mike Price, but decided on a youth movement, hiring alum Wulff away from Eastern Washington. The Cougars are having an increasingly tough time competing in the Pac-10 as salaries for coaches escalated over the past 10 years. With a base package at around $500,000, Wulff will be the lowest paid head coach in the conference. B-
DUKE -- David Cutcliff > Ted Roof: Coach K almost openly advocated disbanding of the football team. And he had a good point: If Duke isn't trying to be the best, why bother? The administration decided not to scrap the program and hired Cutcliff away from Tennessee. He did well as the head coach at Ole Miss and did not get a fair shake there (the Rebels got what they deserved in Orgeron). But the Duke job has proved a career killer for everyone not named Steve Spurrier. C+
WEST VIRGINIA -- Bill Stewart > Rich Rodriguez: Hiring an interim coach based on a knee-jerk reaction is never a good idea, and this fits the bill to a T. WVU was busy dumping on Rodriguez and sleepwalking through the process of hiring his replacement. Stewart did well in retaining defensive coordinator Jeff Casteel, otherwise the situation would've been an unmitigated disaster. Rest assured the Mountaineers' days as a BCS powerhouse are numbered. C+
COLORADO STATE -- Steve Fairchild > Sunny Lubick: After being away from the college game for seven years, the former CSU quarterback returns to coach his alma mater. Lubick had built a respectable program in Fort Collins over the past 15 seasons, though over the last four seasons the Rams have been in decline, culminating in his firing at the end of a 3-9 campaign. Fairchild inherits an unstable situation with not a lot to work with. C
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI -- Larry Fedora > Jeff Bower: Of all the post-season firings/involuntary resignations, this one takes the cake. Just what exactly did Bower do wrong? Was it the 14 consecutive winning seasons? Was it the 10 bowl appearances in the last 11? Well, it must be that the Golden Eagles haven't won a national championship! Talk about not realizing that you have a good thing going. And this takes nothing away from Fedora, who may prove himself to be a fine coach. C-
HAWAI'I -- Greg McMackin > June Jones: No offense to McMackin, because someone has to be named coach, but just how did Hawai'i let Jones get away? This guy left the NFL to come to one of the most decrepit Division I-A programs in all of college football. Before Jones took over, the Rainbows were 0-12. When he left, the Warriors were 12-1 with a BCS bowl berth. But in the meantime, almost nothing has changed with UH's broken down facilities. No wonder AD Herman Frazier got canned the very next day. F
Showing posts with label Hawaii. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hawaii. Show all posts
Friday, January 25, 2008
Saturday, December 1, 2007
Ohio State vs. LSU
The season of upsets brought us one fine ending ... and a fine mess. The BCS Guru now projects that Ohio State and LSU, two teams that occupied the top spot of the BCS standings for much of the season, will meet in New Orleans in the BCS national championship game.
Ohio State will be a comfortable No. 1 against LSU, which will edge Virginia Tech (No. 3) and Georgia (No. 4) and Oklahoma (No. 5) for the spot. The Tigers' early-season rout of the Hokies, and the victory over a Tennessee team that blew out Georgia should put them over the top.
The Guru's preliminary analysis, pending the outcome of the Hawai'i-Washington game, is that LSU will win out primarily in the polls. LSU, Georgia and Virginia Tech will be very close in the computer rankings. But the Tigers will make the quantum leap from No. 7 to No. 2 because of its body of work; and the early-season win over Virginia Tech and SEC championship game victory over Tennessee will pay big dividends.
Les Miles, who's definitely not going to Michigan now, also planted the seeds earlier in the week when he lobbied for LSU's merit, stating that both of the Tigers' losses were in triple-overtime. Those words will now resonate in the heads of the coaches and Harris voters.
Mark Richt went on ESPN to state his case, but his argument rings hollow -- as was with Michigan's Lloyd Carr last year. The voters, having wrested control of the BCS standings from the computers, don't want to hear that it's not a BCS stipulation to put a conference champion in the BCS title game. Remember, when Nebraska (2001) and Oklahoma (2003) went in spite of not winning its division and conference, respectively, it was the computers' handiwork in both cases.
As for Oklahoma and USC, it's a case of too-little-too-late, as well as killer losses to unworthy opponents (OU to Colorado and USC to Stanford). Both teams are too far down in the polls -- and also the computers -- to make up ground. Kansas, despite being the only other one-loss team besides Ohio State, also has no chance after failing to reach the Big XII title game.
Should LSU make the BCS championship game as projected, most likely there will NOT be a split championship. LSU was No. 5 in the last AP poll, very close to No. 4 Georgia. The Tigers are expected to make the jump to No. 2, ahead of Georgia and Virginia Tech, in the final regular-season AP poll.
The BCS bowl situation is very fluid as well. Down 21-0 early, Hawai'i has roared back to defeat Washington, 35-28, finishing with the only perfect 12-0 record in Division I-A and earning the WAC's second consecutive BCS bowl trip.
The Guru's final bowl projections:
BCS championship game: No. 1 Ohio State (11-1) vs. No. 2 LSU (11-2)
Rose Bowl: No. 8 USC (10-2) vs. 13. Illinois (9-3)
Sugar Bowl: No. 4 Georgia (10-2) vs. No. 10 Hawai'i (12-0)
Fiesta Bowl: No. 5 Oklahoma (11-2) vs. No. 9 West Virginia (10-2)
Orange Bowl: No. 3 Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. No. 7 Kansas (11-1)
Other teams in the projected Top 15: 6. Missouri (11-2), 11. Arizona State (10-2), 12. Florida (9-3), 14. Boston College (10-3), 15. Clemson (9-3).
Ohio State will be a comfortable No. 1 against LSU, which will edge Virginia Tech (No. 3) and Georgia (No. 4) and Oklahoma (No. 5) for the spot. The Tigers' early-season rout of the Hokies, and the victory over a Tennessee team that blew out Georgia should put them over the top.
The Guru's preliminary analysis, pending the outcome of the Hawai'i-Washington game, is that LSU will win out primarily in the polls. LSU, Georgia and Virginia Tech will be very close in the computer rankings. But the Tigers will make the quantum leap from No. 7 to No. 2 because of its body of work; and the early-season win over Virginia Tech and SEC championship game victory over Tennessee will pay big dividends.
Les Miles, who's definitely not going to Michigan now, also planted the seeds earlier in the week when he lobbied for LSU's merit, stating that both of the Tigers' losses were in triple-overtime. Those words will now resonate in the heads of the coaches and Harris voters.
Mark Richt went on ESPN to state his case, but his argument rings hollow -- as was with Michigan's Lloyd Carr last year. The voters, having wrested control of the BCS standings from the computers, don't want to hear that it's not a BCS stipulation to put a conference champion in the BCS title game. Remember, when Nebraska (2001) and Oklahoma (2003) went in spite of not winning its division and conference, respectively, it was the computers' handiwork in both cases.
As for Oklahoma and USC, it's a case of too-little-too-late, as well as killer losses to unworthy opponents (OU to Colorado and USC to Stanford). Both teams are too far down in the polls -- and also the computers -- to make up ground. Kansas, despite being the only other one-loss team besides Ohio State, also has no chance after failing to reach the Big XII title game.
Should LSU make the BCS championship game as projected, most likely there will NOT be a split championship. LSU was No. 5 in the last AP poll, very close to No. 4 Georgia. The Tigers are expected to make the jump to No. 2, ahead of Georgia and Virginia Tech, in the final regular-season AP poll.
The BCS bowl situation is very fluid as well. Down 21-0 early, Hawai'i has roared back to defeat Washington, 35-28, finishing with the only perfect 12-0 record in Division I-A and earning the WAC's second consecutive BCS bowl trip.
The Guru's final bowl projections:
BCS championship game: No. 1 Ohio State (11-1) vs. No. 2 LSU (11-2)
Rose Bowl: No. 8 USC (10-2) vs. 13. Illinois (9-3)
Sugar Bowl: No. 4 Georgia (10-2) vs. No. 10 Hawai'i (12-0)
Fiesta Bowl: No. 5 Oklahoma (11-2) vs. No. 9 West Virginia (10-2)
Orange Bowl: No. 3 Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. No. 7 Kansas (11-1)
Other teams in the projected Top 15: 6. Missouri (11-2), 11. Arizona State (10-2), 12. Florida (9-3), 14. Boston College (10-3), 15. Clemson (9-3).
Friday, November 30, 2007
An Anti-Climactic End, Perhaps?
Call it a hunch. But the 2007 season, one spectacularly long on upsets and short on dominant teams, might end with sort of a whimper. Maybe everything will fall in place according to form on Saturday and thus giving us one hell of a boring bowl season.
If West Virginia defeats Pittsburgh, as widely expected, then there won't be much drama as to the BCS bowl lineup. The Mountaineers will play either Missouri or Ohio State, with Georgia, Kansas, USC, Arizona State, Hawai'i and champions of the SEC and ACC expected to earn BCS bowl bids.
A few wild cards are still out there: What if both Missouri and West Virginia lose? What if UCLA beats USC and wins the Pac-10? What if Hawai'i loses to Washington? A total of 16 teams are still in contention to earn one of the 10 BCS bowl bids. Some control their own destiny, some are only at the mercy of the bowl committees.
Here's the outlook for these 16 teams (The Rooting Guide):
1. Missouri (11-1)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Oklahoma (Big XII championship game)
National title scenario: Missouri is headed to the BCS title game with a win.
BCS bowl scenario: It's an all-or-nothing deal. A loss will drop the Tigers to perhaps a Cotton Bowl berth.
2. West Virginia (10-1)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Pittsburgh
National title scenario: West Virginia is headed to the BCS title game with a win.
BCS bowl scenario: Already clinched Big East title; a loss will drop the Mountaineers to either the Fiesta Bowl or Orange Bowl.
3. Ohio State (11-1)
Remaining game: Regular season complete
National title scenario: Ohio State is a loss by either Missouri or West Virginia away from a second consecutive BCS title game appearance, and third overall.
BCS bowl scenario: Ohio State has already a Rose Bowl berth in hand.
4. Georgia (10-2)
Remaining game: Regular season complete
National title scenario: It's a long, long shot. The Dawgs need both Missouri and West Virginia to lose and hope neither Virginia Tech nor LSU jumps them. There will be huge shifts in the polls to prevent UGA from being ranked higher than an SEC-winning LSU.
BCS bowl scenario: Georgia has a lock on a BCS berth, by virtue of being in the No. 4 spot. Most likely it'll be the Orange Bowl, but the Rose Bowl is not out of the question.
5. Kansas (11-1)
Remaining game: Regular season complete
National title scenario: An even-longer shot than Georgia, just about no shot at all.
BCS bowl scenario: Kansas is headed to the desert for the Fiesta Bowl against Arizona State or maybe even the Rose Bowl.
6. Virginia Tech (10-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Boston College (ACC championship game)
National title scenario: Slim. VaTech needs Missouri and West Virginia to lose and then hope it can jump Georgia and Kansas and not get jumped by LSU.
BCS bowl prospect: A victory clinches an Orange Bowl berth. A loss most likely will knock the Hokies out of BCS bowl contention.
7. LSU (10-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Tennessee (SEC championship game)
National title scenario: Very slim, but still there. If Missouri and West Virginia both lose, LSU has the best chance of moving up to No. 2 and earn a date with Ohio State.
BCS bowl scenario: A win guarantees a Sugar Bowl berth. A loss will drop the Tigers out of a BCS bowl altogether.
8. USC (9-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. UCLA
BCS bowl scenario: A victory means a lot for the Trojans -- sweet revenge; a fourth Rose Bowl appearance in five years; sixth-straight BCS bowl appearance, a record; and an opportunity to finish in the Top 4 in the sixth straight year, another record. A loss might mean a trip to El Paso.
9. Oklahoma (10-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Missouri (Big XII championship game)
BCS bowl scenario: Win, it's back to the Fiesta Bowl, opposing either Kansas or Arizona State. A loss means perhaps a Cotton Bowl berth.
11. Boston College (10-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Virginia Tech (ACC championship game)
BCS bowl scenario: A victory over the Hokies will give the Eagles an Orange Bowl berth.
12. Hawai'i (11-0)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Washington
BCS bowl scenario: In all likelihood, a win will get the Warriors a trip to the Sugar Bowl. To prevent any possible backroom dealing, a Boston College loss to Virginia Tech will help things greatly.
13. Arizona State (9-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Arizona
BCS bowl scenario: The Sun Devils will earn a Rose Bowl berth with a win and a USC loss. If the Trojans win, ASU probably will still get a Fiesta Bowl berth with a victory over the Wildcats. One potential scenario that might spoil it for the Sun Devils: Should the Rose Bowl choose Illinois, the Fiesta Bowl might opt for Kansas vs. Oklahoma if the Sooners win the Big XII title, thus shutting out hometown team ASU.
14. Tennessee (9-3)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. LSU (SEC championship game)
BCS bowl scenario: A victory will get the Volunteers a Sugar Bowl berth, an unlikely outcome after their bad start in the regular season.
15. Illinois (9-3)
Remaining game: Regular season complete
BCS bowl scenario: The Illini-to-Rose-Bowl talk is dying a quick death in light of Fiesta Bowl's intention to take Kansas, even in the event of Oklahoma beating Missouri for the Big XII title. The Rose Bowl would like to preempt that by taking the only other 1-loss team available if it loses Ohio State to the BCS title game. The Illini most likely are headed to the CapitalOne Bowl.
19. BYU (9-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 at San Diego State
BCS bowl scenario: The Cougars are only still in this thing because of the possibility of UCLA winning the Pac-10. BYU would need the Bruins to upset USC, Arizona to upset Arizona State and Hawai'i to lose to Washington -- and rise to at least No. 16 in the BCS standings. Well, it's just not gonna happen.
42. UCLA (6-5)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 at USC
BCS bowl scenario: Believe it or not, the Bruins don't need that much help to make it to the Rose Bowl. A win over USC, coupled with an Arizona win at Arizona State, gives UCLA the Pac-10 title -- via the tiebreaker in a four-way tie with USC, ASU and the Oregon-Oregon State winner. Of course, a loss might keep the Bruins home for the holidays -- and that's probably where they will be.
If West Virginia defeats Pittsburgh, as widely expected, then there won't be much drama as to the BCS bowl lineup. The Mountaineers will play either Missouri or Ohio State, with Georgia, Kansas, USC, Arizona State, Hawai'i and champions of the SEC and ACC expected to earn BCS bowl bids.
A few wild cards are still out there: What if both Missouri and West Virginia lose? What if UCLA beats USC and wins the Pac-10? What if Hawai'i loses to Washington? A total of 16 teams are still in contention to earn one of the 10 BCS bowl bids. Some control their own destiny, some are only at the mercy of the bowl committees.
Here's the outlook for these 16 teams (The Rooting Guide):
1. Missouri (11-1)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Oklahoma (Big XII championship game)
National title scenario: Missouri is headed to the BCS title game with a win.
BCS bowl scenario: It's an all-or-nothing deal. A loss will drop the Tigers to perhaps a Cotton Bowl berth.
2. West Virginia (10-1)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Pittsburgh
National title scenario: West Virginia is headed to the BCS title game with a win.
BCS bowl scenario: Already clinched Big East title; a loss will drop the Mountaineers to either the Fiesta Bowl or Orange Bowl.
3. Ohio State (11-1)
Remaining game: Regular season complete
National title scenario: Ohio State is a loss by either Missouri or West Virginia away from a second consecutive BCS title game appearance, and third overall.
BCS bowl scenario: Ohio State has already a Rose Bowl berth in hand.
4. Georgia (10-2)
Remaining game: Regular season complete
National title scenario: It's a long, long shot. The Dawgs need both Missouri and West Virginia to lose and hope neither Virginia Tech nor LSU jumps them. There will be huge shifts in the polls to prevent UGA from being ranked higher than an SEC-winning LSU.
BCS bowl scenario: Georgia has a lock on a BCS berth, by virtue of being in the No. 4 spot. Most likely it'll be the Orange Bowl, but the Rose Bowl is not out of the question.
5. Kansas (11-1)
Remaining game: Regular season complete
National title scenario: An even-longer shot than Georgia, just about no shot at all.
BCS bowl scenario: Kansas is headed to the desert for the Fiesta Bowl against Arizona State or maybe even the Rose Bowl.
6. Virginia Tech (10-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Boston College (ACC championship game)
National title scenario: Slim. VaTech needs Missouri and West Virginia to lose and then hope it can jump Georgia and Kansas and not get jumped by LSU.
BCS bowl prospect: A victory clinches an Orange Bowl berth. A loss most likely will knock the Hokies out of BCS bowl contention.
7. LSU (10-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Tennessee (SEC championship game)
National title scenario: Very slim, but still there. If Missouri and West Virginia both lose, LSU has the best chance of moving up to No. 2 and earn a date with Ohio State.
BCS bowl scenario: A win guarantees a Sugar Bowl berth. A loss will drop the Tigers out of a BCS bowl altogether.
8. USC (9-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. UCLA
BCS bowl scenario: A victory means a lot for the Trojans -- sweet revenge; a fourth Rose Bowl appearance in five years; sixth-straight BCS bowl appearance, a record; and an opportunity to finish in the Top 4 in the sixth straight year, another record. A loss might mean a trip to El Paso.
9. Oklahoma (10-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Missouri (Big XII championship game)
BCS bowl scenario: Win, it's back to the Fiesta Bowl, opposing either Kansas or Arizona State. A loss means perhaps a Cotton Bowl berth.
11. Boston College (10-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Virginia Tech (ACC championship game)
BCS bowl scenario: A victory over the Hokies will give the Eagles an Orange Bowl berth.
12. Hawai'i (11-0)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Washington
BCS bowl scenario: In all likelihood, a win will get the Warriors a trip to the Sugar Bowl. To prevent any possible backroom dealing, a Boston College loss to Virginia Tech will help things greatly.
13. Arizona State (9-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. Arizona
BCS bowl scenario: The Sun Devils will earn a Rose Bowl berth with a win and a USC loss. If the Trojans win, ASU probably will still get a Fiesta Bowl berth with a victory over the Wildcats. One potential scenario that might spoil it for the Sun Devils: Should the Rose Bowl choose Illinois, the Fiesta Bowl might opt for Kansas vs. Oklahoma if the Sooners win the Big XII title, thus shutting out hometown team ASU.
14. Tennessee (9-3)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 vs. LSU (SEC championship game)
BCS bowl scenario: A victory will get the Volunteers a Sugar Bowl berth, an unlikely outcome after their bad start in the regular season.
15. Illinois (9-3)
Remaining game: Regular season complete
BCS bowl scenario: The Illini-to-Rose-Bowl talk is dying a quick death in light of Fiesta Bowl's intention to take Kansas, even in the event of Oklahoma beating Missouri for the Big XII title. The Rose Bowl would like to preempt that by taking the only other 1-loss team available if it loses Ohio State to the BCS title game. The Illini most likely are headed to the CapitalOne Bowl.
19. BYU (9-2)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 at San Diego State
BCS bowl scenario: The Cougars are only still in this thing because of the possibility of UCLA winning the Pac-10. BYU would need the Bruins to upset USC, Arizona to upset Arizona State and Hawai'i to lose to Washington -- and rise to at least No. 16 in the BCS standings. Well, it's just not gonna happen.
42. UCLA (6-5)
Remaining game: Dec. 1 at USC
BCS bowl scenario: Believe it or not, the Bruins don't need that much help to make it to the Rose Bowl. A win over USC, coupled with an Arizona win at Arizona State, gives UCLA the Pac-10 title -- via the tiebreaker in a four-way tie with USC, ASU and the Oregon-Oregon State winner. Of course, a loss might keep the Bruins home for the holidays -- and that's probably where they will be.
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
The Case for Hawaii
One win away. A victory over a 4-8 Washington team apparently is the only thing separating Hawai'i from a BCS bowl invitation. Destination: New Orleans.
I did say "apparently," didn't I?
The formula for Hawai'i seems simple. Win, stay in the Top 12 of the BCS standings, and earn a trip to the Sugar Bowl. But there are a couple of potential scenarios that are out of the Warriors' control. And if Hawai'i has to leave its fate to others, i.e. the BCS selection committee, then it has a lot to be afraid of.
First, let's discuss the two scenarios:
1. Oklahoma beats Missouri, Boston College beats Virginia Tech, LSU beats Tennessee, Arizona State beats Arizona. In this instance, there is a chance that Hawai'i might slide to No. 13, behind Arizona State, and Illinois might move up to No. 14, thus become eligible for an at-large selection.
2. Oklahoma beats Missouri, Boston College beats Virginia Tech, Tennessee beats LSU, Arizona State beats Arizona. In this case, it's possible for Hawai'i to drop to No. 13 after being leapfrogged by Tennessee, while Arizona State stays in the Top 14.
In either event, instead of being guaranteed a BCS berth, Hawai'i will have to vie for a spot with either Virginia Tech or Illinois. In Case No. 1, the Rose Bowl might take 3-loss Illinois should it loses Ohio State to the BCS title game, the Fiesta opts for ASU, the Orange Bowl takes Georgia and the Sugar Bowl goes for either 1-loss Kansas or 2-loss Missouri over an undefeated Hawai'i team.
In Case No. 2, Rose takes Kansas or Missouri, Orange takes Georgia, Fiesta goes for Arizona State, and the Sugar Bowl faces a decision: 3-loss Virginia Tech or Hawai'i?
I believe Case No. 1 is the worst case scenario for Hawai'i. If it comes down to Case No. 2, it should be a slam-dunk, Hawai'i should be the choice.
But what I'm saying here is if Hawai'i beats Washington, Hawai'i must be the choice. Whether it's 11th, 12th, 13th or 14th should be irrelevant. Whether the competition is Illinois or Virginia Tech, it should be irrelevant, too.
Aside from the BCS national championship game, the other bowls are really exhibitions featuring the best of the rest. And a Hawai'i team that goes 12-0 has to be considered among the nation's elite.
Forget about the strength of schedule. The non-conference schedules of Kansas and Ohio State are not appreciably better than Hawai'i's, yet both teams likely will have a place at the BCS table. The Warriors could've done better with their non-conference schedule -- and they did try, Jeff Anderson be damned -- but they cannot be blamed for the WAC slate.
While one can argue about Hawai'i's merits against a one-loss Kansas or a two-loss Missouri, there should be no debate about whether the Warriors are more worthy than a 3-loss Illinois or Virginia Tech.
There are a glut of teams that have lost three times this season, and when you have three losses, you do not stand out in any way. Illinois benefited from tying for second in a very weak Big Ten this season and its reward should not be a trip to Pasadena. Ditto for Virginia Tech should it fail to beat Boston College in the ACC championship game.
Last year, Boise State proved its doubters wrong by starring in perhaps the most memorable college football game this century. Lost in the dizzying array of trick plays that propelled the Broncos to victory in overtime was that they actually dominated much of the game against a physically superior foe.
Hawai'i should get a chance to at least duplicate that. With a record-setting Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback, the Warriors have an explosive offense that's difficult to stop for any team. And New Orleans, a city famous for enchanting entertainment, should welcome the chance to host an extra Mardi Gras, instead of another run-of-the-mill big conference also-ran.
Besides, from a money perspective, the Sugar Bowl will make out handsomely anyway. It already has the BCS national title game and it should have no trouble selling out a contest involving either LSU or Tennessee. Getting an much-ballyhooed undercard involving Hawai'i is like having your king cake and eat it, too.
Or as they say in the Crescent City, it's just lagniappe.
I did say "apparently," didn't I?
The formula for Hawai'i seems simple. Win, stay in the Top 12 of the BCS standings, and earn a trip to the Sugar Bowl. But there are a couple of potential scenarios that are out of the Warriors' control. And if Hawai'i has to leave its fate to others, i.e. the BCS selection committee, then it has a lot to be afraid of.
First, let's discuss the two scenarios:
1. Oklahoma beats Missouri, Boston College beats Virginia Tech, LSU beats Tennessee, Arizona State beats Arizona. In this instance, there is a chance that Hawai'i might slide to No. 13, behind Arizona State, and Illinois might move up to No. 14, thus become eligible for an at-large selection.
2. Oklahoma beats Missouri, Boston College beats Virginia Tech, Tennessee beats LSU, Arizona State beats Arizona. In this case, it's possible for Hawai'i to drop to No. 13 after being leapfrogged by Tennessee, while Arizona State stays in the Top 14.
In either event, instead of being guaranteed a BCS berth, Hawai'i will have to vie for a spot with either Virginia Tech or Illinois. In Case No. 1, the Rose Bowl might take 3-loss Illinois should it loses Ohio State to the BCS title game, the Fiesta opts for ASU, the Orange Bowl takes Georgia and the Sugar Bowl goes for either 1-loss Kansas or 2-loss Missouri over an undefeated Hawai'i team.
In Case No. 2, Rose takes Kansas or Missouri, Orange takes Georgia, Fiesta goes for Arizona State, and the Sugar Bowl faces a decision: 3-loss Virginia Tech or Hawai'i?
I believe Case No. 1 is the worst case scenario for Hawai'i. If it comes down to Case No. 2, it should be a slam-dunk, Hawai'i should be the choice.
But what I'm saying here is if Hawai'i beats Washington, Hawai'i must be the choice. Whether it's 11th, 12th, 13th or 14th should be irrelevant. Whether the competition is Illinois or Virginia Tech, it should be irrelevant, too.
Aside from the BCS national championship game, the other bowls are really exhibitions featuring the best of the rest. And a Hawai'i team that goes 12-0 has to be considered among the nation's elite.
Forget about the strength of schedule. The non-conference schedules of Kansas and Ohio State are not appreciably better than Hawai'i's, yet both teams likely will have a place at the BCS table. The Warriors could've done better with their non-conference schedule -- and they did try, Jeff Anderson be damned -- but they cannot be blamed for the WAC slate.
While one can argue about Hawai'i's merits against a one-loss Kansas or a two-loss Missouri, there should be no debate about whether the Warriors are more worthy than a 3-loss Illinois or Virginia Tech.
There are a glut of teams that have lost three times this season, and when you have three losses, you do not stand out in any way. Illinois benefited from tying for second in a very weak Big Ten this season and its reward should not be a trip to Pasadena. Ditto for Virginia Tech should it fail to beat Boston College in the ACC championship game.
Last year, Boise State proved its doubters wrong by starring in perhaps the most memorable college football game this century. Lost in the dizzying array of trick plays that propelled the Broncos to victory in overtime was that they actually dominated much of the game against a physically superior foe.
Hawai'i should get a chance to at least duplicate that. With a record-setting Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback, the Warriors have an explosive offense that's difficult to stop for any team. And New Orleans, a city famous for enchanting entertainment, should welcome the chance to host an extra Mardi Gras, instead of another run-of-the-mill big conference also-ran.
Besides, from a money perspective, the Sugar Bowl will make out handsomely anyway. It already has the BCS national title game and it should have no trouble selling out a contest involving either LSU or Tennessee. Getting an much-ballyhooed undercard involving Hawai'i is like having your king cake and eat it, too.
Or as they say in the Crescent City, it's just lagniappe.
Monday, November 26, 2007
The Final Week
The maddening 2007 season is coming to a close. And the lucky ones are those who have already finished playing.
Last week, Nos. 1 and 2 both went down, clearing the path for three teams to vie for the BCS national championship. After the release of the latest BCS standings, the scenarios are much clearer -- though there is still potential for Armageddon.
The Guru has broken down those scenarios and the attendant results for all BCS bowls: (*denotes team must win its final game to earn berth)
Scenario One: Missouri beats Oklahoma, West Virginia beats Pittsburgh (Probability: 40.5%)
National championship: Missouri vs. West Virginia
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. USC*
Orange Bowl: ACC champ vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State* vs. Kansas
Sugar Bowl: SEC champ vs. Hawai'i*
Scenario Two: Oklahoma beats Missouri, West Virginia beats Pittsburgh (49.5%)
National championship: West Virginia vs. Ohio State
Rose Bowl: Illinois vs. USC*
Orange Bowl: ACC champ vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State* vs. Oklahoma
Sugar Bowl: SEC champ vs. Hawai'i*
Scenario Three: Missouri beats Oklahoma, Pittsburgh beats West Virginia (4.5%)
National championship: Missouri vs. Ohio State
Rose Bowl: Illinois vs. USC*
Orange Bowl: ACC champ vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State* vs. West Virginia
Sugar Bowl: SEC champ vs. Hawai'i*
Scenario Four: Oklahoma beats Missouri, Pittsburgh beats West Virginia (5.5%)
(This would be the Armageddon Scenario, and the following would be a best guess)
National championship: LSU vs. Ohio State
Rose Bowl: Illinois vs. USC*
Orange Bowl: ACC champ vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State* vs. Oklahoma
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Hawai'i*
In all likelihood, one of the first two scenarios will occur and the BCS dodges another bullet. Should scenario No. 4 occur, it would become a BCS nightmare with as many as eight two-loss teams with a legitimate claim to the title game -- not to mention one-loss Kansas and perhaps a 12-0 Hawai'i as well.
The key game, obviously, is the Backyard Brawl at Morgantown. If the Mountaineers, favored by double digits, win as expected, all is well in the BCS world. If not, then we might have all sorts of controversies, not to mention a potential split national championship.
Isn't that what the BCS is all about?
Further down in the standings, Hawai'i has nearly locked up a BCS berth by climbing into the No. 12 spot of the BCS standings. The Warriors should feel pretty comfortable right now because the circumstances virtually guarantee them an appearance in the Sugar Bowl. Hawai'i simply needs to beat Washington and not get passed by anybody. Should they drop to No. 13, the Warriors then need Illinois to stay out of the Top 14 to maintain their hold on a BCS invitation.
On the other hand, the Big XII, even with three teams in the Top 10, is not assured of a second BCS berth. If Georgia (by being in the Top 4) and Hawai'i (by being in the Top 12) earn guaranteed berths, then the last two slots might be claimed by Arizona State and Illinois. The Fiesta Bowl favors ASU because of its proximity and the Rose Bowl favors the Illini because it would preserve the Big Ten-Pac-10 affiliation.
There are lots of what-ifs. This season is not going to get sorted out until midnight Saturday. And even then, the debates will go on all night.
Last week, Nos. 1 and 2 both went down, clearing the path for three teams to vie for the BCS national championship. After the release of the latest BCS standings, the scenarios are much clearer -- though there is still potential for Armageddon.
The Guru has broken down those scenarios and the attendant results for all BCS bowls: (*denotes team must win its final game to earn berth)
Scenario One: Missouri beats Oklahoma, West Virginia beats Pittsburgh (Probability: 40.5%)
National championship: Missouri vs. West Virginia
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. USC*
Orange Bowl: ACC champ vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State* vs. Kansas
Sugar Bowl: SEC champ vs. Hawai'i*
Scenario Two: Oklahoma beats Missouri, West Virginia beats Pittsburgh (49.5%)
National championship: West Virginia vs. Ohio State
Rose Bowl: Illinois vs. USC*
Orange Bowl: ACC champ vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State* vs. Oklahoma
Sugar Bowl: SEC champ vs. Hawai'i*
Scenario Three: Missouri beats Oklahoma, Pittsburgh beats West Virginia (4.5%)
National championship: Missouri vs. Ohio State
Rose Bowl: Illinois vs. USC*
Orange Bowl: ACC champ vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State* vs. West Virginia
Sugar Bowl: SEC champ vs. Hawai'i*
Scenario Four: Oklahoma beats Missouri, Pittsburgh beats West Virginia (5.5%)
(This would be the Armageddon Scenario, and the following would be a best guess)
National championship: LSU vs. Ohio State
Rose Bowl: Illinois vs. USC*
Orange Bowl: ACC champ vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State* vs. Oklahoma
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Hawai'i*
In all likelihood, one of the first two scenarios will occur and the BCS dodges another bullet. Should scenario No. 4 occur, it would become a BCS nightmare with as many as eight two-loss teams with a legitimate claim to the title game -- not to mention one-loss Kansas and perhaps a 12-0 Hawai'i as well.
The key game, obviously, is the Backyard Brawl at Morgantown. If the Mountaineers, favored by double digits, win as expected, all is well in the BCS world. If not, then we might have all sorts of controversies, not to mention a potential split national championship.
Isn't that what the BCS is all about?
Further down in the standings, Hawai'i has nearly locked up a BCS berth by climbing into the No. 12 spot of the BCS standings. The Warriors should feel pretty comfortable right now because the circumstances virtually guarantee them an appearance in the Sugar Bowl. Hawai'i simply needs to beat Washington and not get passed by anybody. Should they drop to No. 13, the Warriors then need Illinois to stay out of the Top 14 to maintain their hold on a BCS invitation.
On the other hand, the Big XII, even with three teams in the Top 10, is not assured of a second BCS berth. If Georgia (by being in the Top 4) and Hawai'i (by being in the Top 12) earn guaranteed berths, then the last two slots might be claimed by Arizona State and Illinois. The Fiesta Bowl favors ASU because of its proximity and the Rose Bowl favors the Illini because it would preserve the Big Ten-Pac-10 affiliation.
There are lots of what-ifs. This season is not going to get sorted out until midnight Saturday. And even then, the debates will go on all night.
Saturday, November 24, 2007
These Tigers are No. 1
Just like last week, the Tigers will be atop of the new BCS standings. But it will be the Missouri Tigers who replace the LSU Tigers as the 2007 regular season enters its final week.
Closing in at No. 2 and a spot in the BCS title game will be West Virginia. After demolishing overmatched UConn on Saturday, the Mountaineers should have a commanding lead in the standings over No. 3 Ohio State.
The Buckeyes are hardly out of it, however. Should Missouri lose to Oklahoma in the Big XII championship game, Ohio State will be playing in its second straight BCS national championship game.
This is where it gets interesting: If Missouri loses and West Virginia also gets upset by Pittsburgh next week, there will be a glut of 2-loss teams vying for a spot opposite of Ohio State. Despite its loss to Missouri, Kansas still has a slim chance of making it to the BCS title game via a backdoor.
After Kansas's loss, Hawai'i is the only undefeated team in Division I-A, with Washington left on its schedule. The Warriors are on the cusp of becoming the second consecutive WAC champion to go undefeated and earn a BCS bowl berth. The Guru projects that Hawai'i will be at No. 13, just one spot short of getting a guaranteed BCS bid. However, at the moment Hawai'i will be the 10th eligible team in the Top 14, and stands a very good chance of earning a BCS bowl berth.
The Guru's Projected Top 15: 1. Missouri; 2. West Virginia; 3. Ohio State; 4. Kansas; 5. Georgia; 6. LSU; 7. Virginia Tech; 8. USC; 9. Arizona State; 10. Oklahoma; 11. Florida; 12. Boston College; 13. Hawai'i; 14. Tennessee; 15. Illinois.
Closing in at No. 2 and a spot in the BCS title game will be West Virginia. After demolishing overmatched UConn on Saturday, the Mountaineers should have a commanding lead in the standings over No. 3 Ohio State.
The Buckeyes are hardly out of it, however. Should Missouri lose to Oklahoma in the Big XII championship game, Ohio State will be playing in its second straight BCS national championship game.
This is where it gets interesting: If Missouri loses and West Virginia also gets upset by Pittsburgh next week, there will be a glut of 2-loss teams vying for a spot opposite of Ohio State. Despite its loss to Missouri, Kansas still has a slim chance of making it to the BCS title game via a backdoor.
After Kansas's loss, Hawai'i is the only undefeated team in Division I-A, with Washington left on its schedule. The Warriors are on the cusp of becoming the second consecutive WAC champion to go undefeated and earn a BCS bowl berth. The Guru projects that Hawai'i will be at No. 13, just one spot short of getting a guaranteed BCS bid. However, at the moment Hawai'i will be the 10th eligible team in the Top 14, and stands a very good chance of earning a BCS bowl berth.
The Guru's Projected Top 15: 1. Missouri; 2. West Virginia; 3. Ohio State; 4. Kansas; 5. Georgia; 6. LSU; 7. Virginia Tech; 8. USC; 9. Arizona State; 10. Oklahoma; 11. Florida; 12. Boston College; 13. Hawai'i; 14. Tennessee; 15. Illinois.
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Hawaii F-ed Over
The BCS's big dogs apparently are not satisfied that Hawai'i's BCS hopes are already on life support. They want to pull the plug altogether.
The commissioners of the six BCS conferences voted to expand the at-large pool from their own conferences from 14 to 18 teams, adding yet another obstacle in Hawai'i's quest to earn a berth in one of the BCS bowls.
Here's how it works: Until Tuesday, only teams in the Top 14 of the final BCS standings may be considered for a BCS at-large berth. But there is an additional provision that each conference may send no more than two teams to BCS bowls each year.
Right now, that's not a problem. But in two weeks, this might be a big problem. It's very likely that there will be four Big XII, three Pac-10 and three SEC teams, but only one each from the ACC, Big East and Big Ten in the Top 14 in the final standings. That leaves the total available teams for the BCS at nine (do the math: 2+2+2+1+1+1=9).
So what to do? Potentially, Hawai'i could be sitting at No. 15, but because it's not in the Top 12 and not ahead of a conference champion, it does not qualify for an automatic bid. But with this new provision -- straight out of the school of "making-up-rules-as-we-go" -- Illinois stands to be a huge beneficiary. The Illini, now at No. 17, are in position to claim the final at-large berth.
WAC commissioner Karl Benson is taking the high road at the moment: "I don't think [the new rule] really has an effect on Boise State or Hawaii," Benson told the Associated Press. "This isn't anything that reduces or eliminates Boise State's or Hawaii's chances of getting into the BCS. Obviously, if they get into the top 12, it's still guaranteed."
But don't be surprised if Benson screams bloody murder -- and he should -- if a higher-ranked 12-0 Hawai'i team gets passed over by a 3-loss Illinois team that wouldn't have otherwise qualified until the new rule kicked in Tuesday.
Hawai'i's best hopes now rest with, for starters, an impressive victory over 10-1 Boise State on national TV Friday night. Then, a victory by UConn over West Virginia might help kick in the Top 16 clause. If that fails, then losses by Oregon, USC and Texas might become essential. And finally, if things do fall into place by Dec. 1, the Warriors must not forget about Washington.
The Huskies might be 4-7, but they handed Boise State its only loss of the season, and would love to do it again to Hawai'i in the final regular-season game of 2007.
-----
The Rooting Guide
1. LSU (10-1)
Remaining games: Nov. 23 vs. Arkansas (7-4); Dec. 1 at SEC championship
National title scenario: LSU will be going to the BCS national championship game if it beats Arkansas and wins the SEC title game.
BCS bowl scenario: A win over Arkansas will assure the Tigers a BCS bowl berth, even if they lost to Tennessee or Georgia in the SEC championship game.
Needs help from: No one. A two-loss LSU team has a very slim chance of getting into the BCS title game. If they lose to Georgia for the SEC title, they'd have zero chance.
2. Kansas (11-0)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 vs. Missouri (10-1); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
National title scenario: KU will be in the national championship game if it beats Missouri and then wins the Big XII title. So far, the Jayhawks have been the only BCS conference team that's avoided the upset bug. We'll find out what they're made of the next two weeks.
BCS bowl scenario: With Oklahoma's loss, the Jayhawks are pretty much a lock for at least a BCS bowl berth. An 11-1 or 12-1 KU team will be playing in a BCS bowl somewhere.
Needs help from: No one. Even if Kansas ends up being on of only two one-loss teams -- Ohio State being the other, the Jayhawks probably will be pushed out by a two-loss team like Georgia.
3. West Virginia (9-1)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 vs. Connecticut (9-2); Dec. 1 vs. Pittsburgh (4-6)
National title scenario: Two weeks ago, West Virginia looked as if it had no shot of reaching the national title game. Now it appears all the Mountaineers need is an LSU loss in the next two weeks -- or to have the Kansas/Missouri survivor lose the Big XII title game. They do not leave Morgantown again this season, but style points do count when it's this late in the season.
BCS bowl scenario: Saturday's game is effectively the Big East championship game. The winner will do no worse than getting the conference's automatic bid. The loser will be out -- the Big East is not a two-team conference this year.
Needs help from: LSU, Kansas/Missouri winner and Ohio State. Even though the Buckeyes are finished, they can theoretically jump West Virginia if the Mountaineers continue to win dangerously.
4. Missouri (10-1)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 vs. Kansas (11-0); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
National title scenario: Missouri may very well control its own destiny at this point. A win over Kansas should catapult the Tigers over West Virginia into the No. 2 spot. A victory at the Big XII title game should lock it up.
BCS bowl scenario: It's an all-or-nothing deal for Mizzou. Win the Big XII and go to the national title game. Lose, then the at-large bid might end up with a two-loss Texas or a one-loss Kansas.
Needs help from: LSU and West Virginia. Just to be sure, Missouri will want one of these teams to lose at least once.
5. Ohio State (11-1)
Remaining games: Regular season complete
National title scenario: The Buckeyes need help, but maybe not as much as some might think. Either LSU or the Kansas/Missouri winner must lose for the Buckeyes to have a shot, but beyond that, it's a close call. It's possible, if not probable, that Ohio State might jump West Virginia without the Mountaineers losing a game.
BCS bowl scenario: The Rose Bowl is in hand. Now the Buckeyes are waiting in the airport lounge to see if they can get an upgrade. (I know, it's a sacrilege to say any bowl would be an "upgrade" from the Granddaddy of 'em all, but these are the times.)
Needs help from: LSU, Kansas/Missouri winner, West Virginia, Arizona State.
6. Arizona State (9-1)
Remaining games: Nov. 22 vs. USC (8-2); Dec. 1 vs. Arizona (5-6)
National title scenario: It's not looking good for the Sun Devils, but beating the Trojans on Thanksgiving would be a start. And then at least three, probably four of the teams in front of them will have to lose for them to have a shot.
BCS bowl scenario: The Sun Devils will get no worse than a Rose Bowl berth by winning their last two games. A loss to USC might still net ASU a Fiesta Bowl berth, depending on what Oregon does in its final two games.
Needs help from: LSU, Kansas/Missouri winner, West Virginia and Oregon. Yes, one more loss by Oregon will make the Sun Devils a lock for a BCS bowl berth.
7. Georgia (9-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 at Georgia Tech (7-4)
National title scenario: It's a long, long shot, but UGA is the only 2-loss team that might have a shot to get into the national title game. Here's how: Kansas/Missouri winner loses in the Big XII title game, West Virginia and Arizona State each loses at least one game. Tennessee loses to Kentucky and hands Georgia the SEC East title. And then the Bulldogs upset LSU in the SEC title game.
BCS bowl scenario: Should Georgia finish 10-2 but fail to win the SEC East, it should still have the inside track to an at-large berth over Florida. What might foul up the Bulldogs' plans is a Tennessee win over LSU in the SEC title game. In that case, most likely the Tigers will end up with an at-large bid over Georgia.
Needs help from: Kansas/Missouri winner, West Virginia, Arizona State and Tennessee.
8. Virginia Tech (8-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 at Virginia; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A victory over archrival Virginia will earn the Hokies a trip to Jacksonville, against Boston College. An Orange Bowl berth comes with the ACC title.
Needs help from: No one. It's unlikely that the ACC will get an at-large berth. The new rule seems tailor-made for Illinois.
9. Oregon (8-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 at UCLA; Dec. 1 vs. Oregon State
BCS bowl prospect: The Ducks' national title run came to a crashing halt when Dennis Dixon tore his ACL early in a loss to Arizona. Now the Ducks must win their remaining two games with hobbled backup Brady Leaf just to get a BCS bowl bid.
Needs help from: USC. A victory by the Trojans over Arizona State gives the control of the Rose Bowl race back to Oregon -- provided that the Ducks win their remaining two games.
10. Oklahoma (9-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 vs. Oklahoma State; Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
BCS bowl prospect: It's unlikely for OU to get a BCS bowl berth without a victory in the Big XII title game. The at-large berth most likely will go to the Kansas-Missouri loser, or even Texas.
Needs help from: No one.
11. USC (8-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 22 at Arizona State; Dec. 1 vs. UCLA
BCS bowl prospect: The Trojans' run as the Pac-10 champ might not be over after all, and they are very much alive for a sixth straight BCS bowl berth, extending their own record. By finishing 10-2 with a win at ASU will assure USC a BCS bowl berth, maybe even a third straight trip to the Rose Bowl, should Oregon lose one more game.
Needs help from: Oregon. If the Ducks lose one of its final two games, USC will win the conference by beating ASU and UCLA.
12. Florida (8-3)
Remaining game: Nov. 24 vs. Florida State
BCS bowl prospect: Florida's chances of reaching a BCS bowl are extremely slim, but given how this season has evolved, you just can't count them out yet.
Needs help from: Tennessee and Georgia. Georgia needs to lose to Georgia Tech but still gets into the SEC title game and lose again. In order for that to happen, Tennessee needs to lose to Kentucky first.
13. Texas (9-2)
Remaining game: Nov. 23 at Texas A&M
BCS bowl prospect: Texas all of a sudden is just an OU loss away from getting into the Big XII title game. The bad news is that there is almost no chance for the Longhorns to get an at-large berth.
Needs help from: Oklahoma. A Sooners loss to Oklahoma State, coupled with a Texas win over A&M will give the Longhorns the opportunity to win the Big XII.
14. Boston College (9-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 vs. Miami; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: It's onto Jacksonville for the ACC title game against the Virginia-Virginia Tech winner. A victory there will land the Eagles in the Orange Bowl.
Needs help from: No one.
15. Hawai'i (10-0)
Remaining games: Nov. 23 vs. Boise State; Dec. 1 vs. Washington
BCS bowl prospect: Read the post up top ... it covers everything.
Needs help from: Texas, Florida and USC. Losses by any/all of these teams will help Hawai'i tremendously in the human polls, and thus enhance its chances to be in the Top 12.
16. Virginia (9-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 vs. Virginia Tech; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A win over the Hokies will give the Cavs the division title and a spot in the ACC title game. A win in Jacksonville will earn them an Orange Bowl berth.
Needs help from: No one.
17. Illinois (9-3)
Remaining games: Regular season complete
BCS bowl prospect: Ron Zook is living a charmed life. The victory over then-No. 1 Ohio State is giving the Illini unbelievable pub, to the point that BCS rules are hastily altered to potentially accommodate his team. How would you like a Florida-Illinois game in the Zooker, uh, Sugar Bowl?
Needs help from: Too many to count right now. But it'll all work out at the end.
18. Tennessee (8-3)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 at Kentucky; Dec. 1 SEC championship
BCS bowl prospect: The Vols control their own BCS destiny. Win their remaining two games, including the SEC title game, they will be in the Sugar Bowl. Lose just once, it will all go kaput.
Needs help from: No one. A loss to Kentucky will hand the SEC East to Georgia.
19. Boise State (10-1)
Remaining game: Nov. 23 at Hawai'i
BCS bowl prospect: It was looking good a week ago, but now it's all but extinguished for the Broncos. It's not possible for Boise State to get into the Top 12, even with a win over Hawai'i. And it's not probable for Boise State to be ahead of a conference champion and therefore triggering the Top 16 clause.
Needs help from: God.
20. Connecticut (9-2)
Remaining game: Nov. 24 at West Virginia
BCS bowl prospect: Very simple -- beat WVU, and UConn becomes the second team to clinch a BCS bid. Lose to WVU, and UConn and Larry Taylor turn back into pumpkins, unfair catch or not.
Needs help from: Big East refs. Didn't it seem like they helped the Huskies in every one of their victories?
The commissioners of the six BCS conferences voted to expand the at-large pool from their own conferences from 14 to 18 teams, adding yet another obstacle in Hawai'i's quest to earn a berth in one of the BCS bowls.
Here's how it works: Until Tuesday, only teams in the Top 14 of the final BCS standings may be considered for a BCS at-large berth. But there is an additional provision that each conference may send no more than two teams to BCS bowls each year.
Right now, that's not a problem. But in two weeks, this might be a big problem. It's very likely that there will be four Big XII, three Pac-10 and three SEC teams, but only one each from the ACC, Big East and Big Ten in the Top 14 in the final standings. That leaves the total available teams for the BCS at nine (do the math: 2+2+2+1+1+1=9).
So what to do? Potentially, Hawai'i could be sitting at No. 15, but because it's not in the Top 12 and not ahead of a conference champion, it does not qualify for an automatic bid. But with this new provision -- straight out of the school of "making-up-rules-as-we-go" -- Illinois stands to be a huge beneficiary. The Illini, now at No. 17, are in position to claim the final at-large berth.
WAC commissioner Karl Benson is taking the high road at the moment: "I don't think [the new rule] really has an effect on Boise State or Hawaii," Benson told the Associated Press. "This isn't anything that reduces or eliminates Boise State's or Hawaii's chances of getting into the BCS. Obviously, if they get into the top 12, it's still guaranteed."
But don't be surprised if Benson screams bloody murder -- and he should -- if a higher-ranked 12-0 Hawai'i team gets passed over by a 3-loss Illinois team that wouldn't have otherwise qualified until the new rule kicked in Tuesday.
Hawai'i's best hopes now rest with, for starters, an impressive victory over 10-1 Boise State on national TV Friday night. Then, a victory by UConn over West Virginia might help kick in the Top 16 clause. If that fails, then losses by Oregon, USC and Texas might become essential. And finally, if things do fall into place by Dec. 1, the Warriors must not forget about Washington.
The Huskies might be 4-7, but they handed Boise State its only loss of the season, and would love to do it again to Hawai'i in the final regular-season game of 2007.
-----
The Rooting Guide
1. LSU (10-1)
Remaining games: Nov. 23 vs. Arkansas (7-4); Dec. 1 at SEC championship
National title scenario: LSU will be going to the BCS national championship game if it beats Arkansas and wins the SEC title game.
BCS bowl scenario: A win over Arkansas will assure the Tigers a BCS bowl berth, even if they lost to Tennessee or Georgia in the SEC championship game.
Needs help from: No one. A two-loss LSU team has a very slim chance of getting into the BCS title game. If they lose to Georgia for the SEC title, they'd have zero chance.
2. Kansas (11-0)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 vs. Missouri (10-1); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
National title scenario: KU will be in the national championship game if it beats Missouri and then wins the Big XII title. So far, the Jayhawks have been the only BCS conference team that's avoided the upset bug. We'll find out what they're made of the next two weeks.
BCS bowl scenario: With Oklahoma's loss, the Jayhawks are pretty much a lock for at least a BCS bowl berth. An 11-1 or 12-1 KU team will be playing in a BCS bowl somewhere.
Needs help from: No one. Even if Kansas ends up being on of only two one-loss teams -- Ohio State being the other, the Jayhawks probably will be pushed out by a two-loss team like Georgia.
3. West Virginia (9-1)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 vs. Connecticut (9-2); Dec. 1 vs. Pittsburgh (4-6)
National title scenario: Two weeks ago, West Virginia looked as if it had no shot of reaching the national title game. Now it appears all the Mountaineers need is an LSU loss in the next two weeks -- or to have the Kansas/Missouri survivor lose the Big XII title game. They do not leave Morgantown again this season, but style points do count when it's this late in the season.
BCS bowl scenario: Saturday's game is effectively the Big East championship game. The winner will do no worse than getting the conference's automatic bid. The loser will be out -- the Big East is not a two-team conference this year.
Needs help from: LSU, Kansas/Missouri winner and Ohio State. Even though the Buckeyes are finished, they can theoretically jump West Virginia if the Mountaineers continue to win dangerously.
4. Missouri (10-1)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 vs. Kansas (11-0); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
National title scenario: Missouri may very well control its own destiny at this point. A win over Kansas should catapult the Tigers over West Virginia into the No. 2 spot. A victory at the Big XII title game should lock it up.
BCS bowl scenario: It's an all-or-nothing deal for Mizzou. Win the Big XII and go to the national title game. Lose, then the at-large bid might end up with a two-loss Texas or a one-loss Kansas.
Needs help from: LSU and West Virginia. Just to be sure, Missouri will want one of these teams to lose at least once.
5. Ohio State (11-1)
Remaining games: Regular season complete
National title scenario: The Buckeyes need help, but maybe not as much as some might think. Either LSU or the Kansas/Missouri winner must lose for the Buckeyes to have a shot, but beyond that, it's a close call. It's possible, if not probable, that Ohio State might jump West Virginia without the Mountaineers losing a game.
BCS bowl scenario: The Rose Bowl is in hand. Now the Buckeyes are waiting in the airport lounge to see if they can get an upgrade. (I know, it's a sacrilege to say any bowl would be an "upgrade" from the Granddaddy of 'em all, but these are the times.)
Needs help from: LSU, Kansas/Missouri winner, West Virginia, Arizona State.
6. Arizona State (9-1)
Remaining games: Nov. 22 vs. USC (8-2); Dec. 1 vs. Arizona (5-6)
National title scenario: It's not looking good for the Sun Devils, but beating the Trojans on Thanksgiving would be a start. And then at least three, probably four of the teams in front of them will have to lose for them to have a shot.
BCS bowl scenario: The Sun Devils will get no worse than a Rose Bowl berth by winning their last two games. A loss to USC might still net ASU a Fiesta Bowl berth, depending on what Oregon does in its final two games.
Needs help from: LSU, Kansas/Missouri winner, West Virginia and Oregon. Yes, one more loss by Oregon will make the Sun Devils a lock for a BCS bowl berth.
7. Georgia (9-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 at Georgia Tech (7-4)
National title scenario: It's a long, long shot, but UGA is the only 2-loss team that might have a shot to get into the national title game. Here's how: Kansas/Missouri winner loses in the Big XII title game, West Virginia and Arizona State each loses at least one game. Tennessee loses to Kentucky and hands Georgia the SEC East title. And then the Bulldogs upset LSU in the SEC title game.
BCS bowl scenario: Should Georgia finish 10-2 but fail to win the SEC East, it should still have the inside track to an at-large berth over Florida. What might foul up the Bulldogs' plans is a Tennessee win over LSU in the SEC title game. In that case, most likely the Tigers will end up with an at-large bid over Georgia.
Needs help from: Kansas/Missouri winner, West Virginia, Arizona State and Tennessee.
8. Virginia Tech (8-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 at Virginia; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A victory over archrival Virginia will earn the Hokies a trip to Jacksonville, against Boston College. An Orange Bowl berth comes with the ACC title.
Needs help from: No one. It's unlikely that the ACC will get an at-large berth. The new rule seems tailor-made for Illinois.
9. Oregon (8-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 at UCLA; Dec. 1 vs. Oregon State
BCS bowl prospect: The Ducks' national title run came to a crashing halt when Dennis Dixon tore his ACL early in a loss to Arizona. Now the Ducks must win their remaining two games with hobbled backup Brady Leaf just to get a BCS bowl bid.
Needs help from: USC. A victory by the Trojans over Arizona State gives the control of the Rose Bowl race back to Oregon -- provided that the Ducks win their remaining two games.
10. Oklahoma (9-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 vs. Oklahoma State; Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
BCS bowl prospect: It's unlikely for OU to get a BCS bowl berth without a victory in the Big XII title game. The at-large berth most likely will go to the Kansas-Missouri loser, or even Texas.
Needs help from: No one.
11. USC (8-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 22 at Arizona State; Dec. 1 vs. UCLA
BCS bowl prospect: The Trojans' run as the Pac-10 champ might not be over after all, and they are very much alive for a sixth straight BCS bowl berth, extending their own record. By finishing 10-2 with a win at ASU will assure USC a BCS bowl berth, maybe even a third straight trip to the Rose Bowl, should Oregon lose one more game.
Needs help from: Oregon. If the Ducks lose one of its final two games, USC will win the conference by beating ASU and UCLA.
12. Florida (8-3)
Remaining game: Nov. 24 vs. Florida State
BCS bowl prospect: Florida's chances of reaching a BCS bowl are extremely slim, but given how this season has evolved, you just can't count them out yet.
Needs help from: Tennessee and Georgia. Georgia needs to lose to Georgia Tech but still gets into the SEC title game and lose again. In order for that to happen, Tennessee needs to lose to Kentucky first.
13. Texas (9-2)
Remaining game: Nov. 23 at Texas A&M
BCS bowl prospect: Texas all of a sudden is just an OU loss away from getting into the Big XII title game. The bad news is that there is almost no chance for the Longhorns to get an at-large berth.
Needs help from: Oklahoma. A Sooners loss to Oklahoma State, coupled with a Texas win over A&M will give the Longhorns the opportunity to win the Big XII.
14. Boston College (9-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 vs. Miami; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: It's onto Jacksonville for the ACC title game against the Virginia-Virginia Tech winner. A victory there will land the Eagles in the Orange Bowl.
Needs help from: No one.
15. Hawai'i (10-0)
Remaining games: Nov. 23 vs. Boise State; Dec. 1 vs. Washington
BCS bowl prospect: Read the post up top ... it covers everything.
Needs help from: Texas, Florida and USC. Losses by any/all of these teams will help Hawai'i tremendously in the human polls, and thus enhance its chances to be in the Top 12.
16. Virginia (9-2)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 vs. Virginia Tech; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A win over the Hokies will give the Cavs the division title and a spot in the ACC title game. A win in Jacksonville will earn them an Orange Bowl berth.
Needs help from: No one.
17. Illinois (9-3)
Remaining games: Regular season complete
BCS bowl prospect: Ron Zook is living a charmed life. The victory over then-No. 1 Ohio State is giving the Illini unbelievable pub, to the point that BCS rules are hastily altered to potentially accommodate his team. How would you like a Florida-Illinois game in the Zooker, uh, Sugar Bowl?
Needs help from: Too many to count right now. But it'll all work out at the end.
18. Tennessee (8-3)
Remaining games: Nov. 24 at Kentucky; Dec. 1 SEC championship
BCS bowl prospect: The Vols control their own BCS destiny. Win their remaining two games, including the SEC title game, they will be in the Sugar Bowl. Lose just once, it will all go kaput.
Needs help from: No one. A loss to Kentucky will hand the SEC East to Georgia.
19. Boise State (10-1)
Remaining game: Nov. 23 at Hawai'i
BCS bowl prospect: It was looking good a week ago, but now it's all but extinguished for the Broncos. It's not possible for Boise State to get into the Top 12, even with a win over Hawai'i. And it's not probable for Boise State to be ahead of a conference champion and therefore triggering the Top 16 clause.
Needs help from: God.
20. Connecticut (9-2)
Remaining game: Nov. 24 at West Virginia
BCS bowl prospect: Very simple -- beat WVU, and UConn becomes the second team to clinch a BCS bid. Lose to WVU, and UConn and Larry Taylor turn back into pumpkins, unfair catch or not.
Needs help from: Big East refs. Didn't it seem like they helped the Huskies in every one of their victories?
Monday, November 12, 2007
A WAC-ky Break
Losses by Michigan and Ohio State have a much greater meaning than knocking the Buckeyes out of No. 1, and in all likelihood, the national title race. The Wolverines now have picked up a lot of WAC fans on their bandwagon for Saturday's annual showdown for the Big Ten title.
A Michigan victory will earn it the Big Ten championship outright, and a Rose Bowl berth. But it also should kick in the Top 16 clause: Any non-BCS member will qualify for a BCS bid if it finishes in the Top 16, as long as it's ahead of a BCS conference winner -- a much easier path than being in the Top 12 for the automatic bid.
This scenario not only buoyed the chances for Hawai'i, whose quest was all but in death throes as of last week, but also brought Boise State back to life. Hawai'i now sits at No. 16 and Boise State at No. 18, both well ahead of No. 21 Michigan. It's difficult to see the Wolverines leapfrog either team now that the Buckeyes have also slipped to No. 7 in the BCS standings.
With that being the case, when Boise State plays Hawai'i at the Aloha Bowl on Nov. 23, a BCS berth may very well be on the line.
Yes, if you're a Warriors or Broncos fan, learn the words of "The Victors" and yell "Go Blue!" like you mean it this Saturday.
Besides the exciting WAC news, there is this pesky little detail about the national championship. Ah, with three weeks remaining on the season, the BCS title game race looks to be a three-team affair among LSU, Oregon and the eventual Big XII champion. With regard to that, then there are only 12 meaningful games left on the regular season.
Let's break those down before we get to the Rooting Guide, with rivalry games denoted with an asterisk (*):
Nov. 15 -- Oregon (-12 1/2) at Arizona: A game the Ducks should easily win. Then again, last year, the Wildcats romped in Eugene.
Nov. 17 --
Kansas (-26) vs. Iowa State: This could be a trap game if the Jayhawks get caught looking ahead to the showdown against Missouri a week later.
Missouri (-7 1/2) at Kansas State: The small spread suggests that this is a also a trap game for the Tigers, never mind that the Wildcats gave up 73 points to Nebraska last week.
Oklahoma (-9 1/2) at Texas Tech: Mike Leach is mad about Big XII officiating. Nothing new there. The Sooners will get their share of favorable calls in Lubbock.
LSU (-18) at Ole Miss: This will be a tougher game then it appears, but the Tigers should win going away.
Nov. 23 -- LSU vs. Arkansas*: This may be a rivalry game but the Tigers should have the clear upper hand, playing at home. LSU should be a two-touchdown favorite.
Nov. 24 --
Kansas vs. Missouri at Kansas City*: Originally a Kansas home game, now the Jayhawks probably wish to have remained that way. On the line will be the Big XII North title, and most likely also a chance for the national championship game.
Oregon at UCLA: The Ducks are catching the depleted Bruins at a good time. This UCLA team, ravaged by injuries, might not even be bowl eligible if it loses to Oregon.
Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State*: The Sooners are desperately trying to atone for their lone loss of the season. But they had not better overlook the Cowboys. If it weren't for the fourth-quarter collapse against Texas, this game would've determined the winner of the Big XII South.
Dec. 1 --
Oregon vs. Oregon State*: The Civil War, oldest rivalry in the Pac-10, has yielded some surprising results in the past. The Beavers, with three losses against ranked opponents and another against a healthy UCLA team, are better than your average 6-4 squad.
Big XII championship: For this game to matter, it'll have to pit either an 11-1 Missouri or a 12-0 Kansas against 11-1 Oklahoma. And the winner of this game will have an agonizing wait to see if LSU bombs in the SEC championship game.
SEC championship: Just like last year, the chase will come down to the last game of the regular season. A win will most likely send the Tigers to their first BCS title game since 2003, no matter what happens earlier in the day. A loss might result in mass chaos.
Now, without further ado, the Rooting Guide:
1. LSU (9-1)
Losable games: Nov. 23 vs. Arkansas (6-4); Dec. 1 at SEC championship
National title scenario: LSU is No. 1 in four of six computers and enjoys a decent lead in the polls. As long as the Tigers win out, it's unlikely anyone can jump them.
BCS bowl scenario: A two-loss LSU team is assured of at least a BCS at-large berth. And if the Tigers win the SEC but don't get into the national title game, they'll head to New Orleans anyway, for the Sugar Bowl.
Root for: Georgia and Tennessee. LSU would rather play either of these teams than get into a rematch against a very talented Florida team. A Georgia victory over Kentucky on Saturday will for sure keep the Gators out of the SEC title game.
Root against: Oregon, Kansas, Oklahoma. Just for insurance.
2. Oregon (8-1)
Losable game: Dec. 1 vs. Oregon State (6-4)
National title scenario: The Ducks may be No. 2, but they have plenty to worry about. Since they do not have another marquee game left, they are vulnerable in the polls. And if Kansas goes undefeated, they may not be able to fend off the Jayhawks for the No. 2 spot.
BCS bowl scenario: The Ducks control the Pac-10 race. But one more loss can knock them out of a Rose Bowl berth if Arizona State finishes unbeaten. In that case, they may be headed for the Fiesta Bowl.
Root for: Oregon State. The Ducks need the Beavers to bring a good record to the Civil War so they can make some noise on the final day of the regular season.
Root against: LSU, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arizona State.
3. Kansas (10-0)
Losable games: Nov. 24 vs. Missouri (9-1); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
National title scenario: Kansas is probably the team that has the firmest control of its own destiny, even more so than LSU. A 13-0 Jayhawks team, with wins over Missouri and Oklahoma, almost certainly will jump to no worse than No. 2 in the polls and collect enough computer support to land in the BCS title game.
BCS bowl scenario: It might be an all-or-nothing deal. A loss to Missouri probably will cost the Jayhawks a spot in the Big XII title game, and with it, maybe even a BCS at-large berth. A win over the Tigers in Kansas City will probably assure KU its first-ever BCS bowl appearance.
Root for: Oklahoma. If the Jayhawks were to achieve this improbable dream, they need the big bad Sooners to be 11-1 heading into the Big XII title game.
Root against: LSU, Oregon, Missouri. Yes, Mizzou. If you're a Jayhawks fan, you need to hedge your bet. A Tigers loss to K-State will clinch the Big XII North for KU and a berth in the Big XII title game.
4. Oklahoma (9-1)
Losable games: Nov. 17 at Texas Tech (7-4); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
National title scenario: The Sooners will really rue that shocking loss to Colorado back on Sept. 29. It's going to take either Oregon or LSU losing to get them into the national championship game. But their prospect is already much improved just a week later.
BCS bowl scenario: It's possible for OU to reach the Big XII title game but be shut out of a BCS berth altogether. Here's how: If Missouri defeats a previously unbeaten Kansas and then upsets Oklahoma in the Big XII title game, then the Tigers get the Fiesta Bowl berth and KU might steal the at-large berth with just one loss.
Root for: Kansas. That being said, OU wants the Jayhawks to come into the Big XII title game unbeaten and then puts the hurt on them. That will help things if the battle for the national title game spots gets tight.
Root against: LSU, Oregon, West Virginia. The Mountaineers are not really in the hunt, but just in case.
5. Missouri (9-1)
Losable games: Nov. 17 at Kansas State (5-5); Nov. 24 vs. Kansas (10-0); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship game
National title scenario: A week later, Missouri is just a LSU or Oregon loss away from controlling its own destiny when it comes to the BCS title chase.
BCS bowl scenario: The Tigers do control their own destiny here. Win the Big XII, a trip to the Fiesta Bowl is guaranteed, if not the national championship game.
Root for: Oklahoma. For sweet revenge, Missouri wants the Sooners in the Big XII title game with an 11-1 record.
Root against: LSU, Oregon, West Virginia, Ohio State and Texas. Yes, if Missouri loses in the Big XII game, it risks losing a BCS at-large berth to a two-loss Longhorns team. A Texas loss to rival A&M will make things easier.
6. West Virginia (8-1)
Key games: Nov.17 at Cincinnati; Nov. 24 vs. Connecticut
BCS bowl prospect: If West Virginia wins out, it will claim the Big East championship and an automatic berth to a BCS bowl game.
Needs help from: No one, right now -- unless you're still thinking about the national championship, then the Mountaineers need everybody in front of them to lose.
7. Ohio State (10-1)
Key game: Nov. 17 at Michigan (8-3)
BCS bowl prospect: The loss to Illinois changed everything. Not only is the national title out of the question, the Buckeyes might not even make it to the Rose Bowl. It does appear that Ohio State would be a lock for a BCS bowl berth, even if it ends the regular season with two consecutive losses..
Needs help from: No one, for now. Unless teams in front of them start losing like crazy.
8. Arizona State (9-1)
Key games: Nov. 22 vs. USC; Dec. 1 vs. Arizona
BCS bowl prospect: The Sun Devils might have lost their shot at the national title game, but a Pac-10 championship, with it a Rose Bowl berth, is still very much in play. By winning its remaining two games, ASU will no do worse than Pac-10 co-champ and a Fiesta Bowl berth.
Needs help from: Oregon. A loss by the Ducks will put the Sun Devils back in the driver's seat in the Pac-10 race and their first Rose Bowl appearance since Jake Plummer was their quarterback.
9. Georgia (8-2)
Key game: Nov. 17 vs. Kentucky
BCS bowl prospect: By winning its remaining two games, Georgia is all but assured of a BCS at-large berth even if it fails to earn a spot in the SEC championship game. If the Bulldogs finish the regular season 10-2, they'll likely earn a trip to the Sugar Bowl should LSU advances to the BCS title game.
Needs help from: Tennessee. If the Vols remain unbeaten the rest of the way, they will have the tiebreaker edge over Georgia in the SEC East, by virtue of their victory over the Bulldogs. If you're only rooting for Georgia to get a BCS berth, then you'd want the Vols to win out so UGA can avoid an SEC title game fight against LSU.
10. Virginia Tech (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 24 at Virginia; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A victory over archrival Virginia will earn the Hokies a trip to Jacksonville, against Boston College or Clemson. An Orange Bowl berth comes with the ACC title.
Needs help from: No one, really. An at-large berth is all but out of the question for any 3-loss team at this point.
11. USC (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 22 at Arizona State; Dec. 1 vs. UCLA
BCS bowl prospect: The Trojans' run as the Pac-10 champ might be over, but they are very much alive for a sixth straight BCS bowl berth, extending their own record. By finishing 10-2 with a win at ASU will assure USC a BCS bowl berth, maybe even a third straight trip to the Rose Bowl, should Oregon move on to the BCS title game.
Needs help from: Oregon. Well, depends on what you're looking for. If the Ducks lose two of their final three, USC can still win the conference. Since that's not likely, Trojans fans are better off rooting for Oregon to get into the title game so USC can get back to Pasadena.
12. Florida (7-3)
Key game: Nov. 24 vs. Florida State
BCS bowl prospect: Even with three losses, the Gators are not quite dead yet. But Kentucky controls Florida's destiny as it's finished with SEC games.
Needs help from: Tennessee and Georgia. Both teams still play Kentucky and if UK beats both of them, then the Gators will win a three-way or four-way tiebreaker. If Kentucky loses to one of them, then the Gators are finished and must wait to see if they get a BCS at-large berth.
13. Texas (9-2)
Key game: Nov. 23 at Texas A&M
BCS bowl prospect: Unless Oklahoma implodes, the Longhorns won't win the Big 12 South. That said, a 10-2 Texas is very much in the hunt for an at-large berth.
Needs help from: Oklahoma. Like it or not, 'Horns fans must root for OU in the Big XII title game. An OU victory gives Texas a shot at a BCS bowl berth. An OU loss means the at-large bid will end up with the Sooners.
14. Virginia (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 24 vs. Virginia Tech; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A win over the Hokies will give the Cavs the division title and a spot in the ACC title game. A win in Jacksonville will earn them an Orange Bowl berth.
Needs help from: No one.
15. Clemson (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 17 vs. Boston College; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A victory over BC will give Clemson the ACC Atlantic title and a chance for its first conference championship under Tommy Bowden.
Needs help from: No one.
16. Hawai'i (9-0)
Key games: Nov. 16 at Nevada; Nov. 23 vs. Boise State; Dec. 1 vs. Washington
BCS bowl prospect: The losses by Michigan and Ohio State have dramatically improved Hawai'i's chances for a BCS at-large berth ... but Colt Brennan's injury might offset that. Hawai'i's final road game of the season, at Nevada, might become perilous if Brennan doesn't recover in time from a concussion.
Needs help from: Michigan. Completely different from last week, now Hawai'i needs the Wolverines to beat Ohio State. While Hawai'i's hopes for a Top 12 finish and a guaranteed bid have all but evaporated, it's now very much alive for an at-large bid via the Top 16 rule. If Michigan wins the Big Ten, most likely it will still rank behind Hawai'i and therefore the Warriors qualify for a BCS bid by finishing in the Top 16 in the BCS standings.
17. Boston College (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 17 at Clemson; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: Saturday's game at Clemson will decide who wins the ACC Atlantic. And then it's onto Jacksonville for the ACC title game against the Virginia-Virginia Tech winner.
Needs help from: No one.
18. Boise State (9-1)
Key game: Nov. 23 at Hawai'i
BCS bowl prospect: Believe it or not, the Broncos suddenly have a shot to become the first non-BCS school to earn back-to-back BCS appearances. Upset losses by Michigan and Ohio State opened the door for Boise State, just as they did for Hawai'i.
Needs help from: Michigan and Hawai'i. Like the Warriors, a Wolverines win might get the Broncos in the BCS picture via the Top 16 rule. And of course, Boise State wants the Warriors to win all their remaining games and be a perfect 10-0 before the showdown.
20. Tennessee (7-3)
Key games: Nov. 17 vs. Vanderbilt; Nov. 24 at Kentucky; Dec. 1 SEC championship
BCS bowl prospect: The Vols control their own BCS destiny. Win their remaining three games, including the SEC title game, they will be in the Sugar Bowl. Lose just once, it will all go kaput.
Needs help from: No one. One Tennessee loss will hand the SEC East to either Georgia or Florida. There is no backdoor way in.
21. Michigan (8-3)
Key game: Nov. 17 vs. Ohio State
BCS bowl prospect: The loss to Wisconsin didn't really cost Michigan anything, after the Buckeyes also lost to Illinois. A victory gives Michigan the outright Big Ten title and its fourth trip to the Rose Bowl in five years. A loss, it might be, gulp, the Champs Sports Bowl.
Needs help from: No one.
22. Cincinnati (8-2)
Key game: Nov. 17 vs. West Virginia
BCS bowl prospect: The Bearcats need a little help, but if they can beat West Virginia at home, they will have a great shot at winning their first Big East title and a BCS bowl berth.
Needs help from: Connecticut. If the Huskies lose one of their remaining two games, then the Bearcats will claim the Big East championship by winning out. UConn finishes the season with a trip to Morgantown.
24. Connecticut (8-2)
Key game: Nov. 24 at West Virginia
BCS bowl prospect: This should be basketball season in Storrs by now, but the football Huskies still have all the marbles to play for. Most likely, the Big East title will be decided in Morgantown.
Needs help from: No one. UConn controls its own destiny, but a loss will end all hope.
A Michigan victory will earn it the Big Ten championship outright, and a Rose Bowl berth. But it also should kick in the Top 16 clause: Any non-BCS member will qualify for a BCS bid if it finishes in the Top 16, as long as it's ahead of a BCS conference winner -- a much easier path than being in the Top 12 for the automatic bid.
This scenario not only buoyed the chances for Hawai'i, whose quest was all but in death throes as of last week, but also brought Boise State back to life. Hawai'i now sits at No. 16 and Boise State at No. 18, both well ahead of No. 21 Michigan. It's difficult to see the Wolverines leapfrog either team now that the Buckeyes have also slipped to No. 7 in the BCS standings.
With that being the case, when Boise State plays Hawai'i at the Aloha Bowl on Nov. 23, a BCS berth may very well be on the line.
Yes, if you're a Warriors or Broncos fan, learn the words of "The Victors" and yell "Go Blue!" like you mean it this Saturday.
Besides the exciting WAC news, there is this pesky little detail about the national championship. Ah, with three weeks remaining on the season, the BCS title game race looks to be a three-team affair among LSU, Oregon and the eventual Big XII champion. With regard to that, then there are only 12 meaningful games left on the regular season.
Let's break those down before we get to the Rooting Guide, with rivalry games denoted with an asterisk (*):
Nov. 15 -- Oregon (-12 1/2) at Arizona: A game the Ducks should easily win. Then again, last year, the Wildcats romped in Eugene.
Nov. 17 --
Kansas (-26) vs. Iowa State: This could be a trap game if the Jayhawks get caught looking ahead to the showdown against Missouri a week later.
Missouri (-7 1/2) at Kansas State: The small spread suggests that this is a also a trap game for the Tigers, never mind that the Wildcats gave up 73 points to Nebraska last week.
Oklahoma (-9 1/2) at Texas Tech: Mike Leach is mad about Big XII officiating. Nothing new there. The Sooners will get their share of favorable calls in Lubbock.
LSU (-18) at Ole Miss: This will be a tougher game then it appears, but the Tigers should win going away.
Nov. 23 -- LSU vs. Arkansas*: This may be a rivalry game but the Tigers should have the clear upper hand, playing at home. LSU should be a two-touchdown favorite.
Nov. 24 --
Kansas vs. Missouri at Kansas City*: Originally a Kansas home game, now the Jayhawks probably wish to have remained that way. On the line will be the Big XII North title, and most likely also a chance for the national championship game.
Oregon at UCLA: The Ducks are catching the depleted Bruins at a good time. This UCLA team, ravaged by injuries, might not even be bowl eligible if it loses to Oregon.
Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State*: The Sooners are desperately trying to atone for their lone loss of the season. But they had not better overlook the Cowboys. If it weren't for the fourth-quarter collapse against Texas, this game would've determined the winner of the Big XII South.
Dec. 1 --
Oregon vs. Oregon State*: The Civil War, oldest rivalry in the Pac-10, has yielded some surprising results in the past. The Beavers, with three losses against ranked opponents and another against a healthy UCLA team, are better than your average 6-4 squad.
Big XII championship: For this game to matter, it'll have to pit either an 11-1 Missouri or a 12-0 Kansas against 11-1 Oklahoma. And the winner of this game will have an agonizing wait to see if LSU bombs in the SEC championship game.
SEC championship: Just like last year, the chase will come down to the last game of the regular season. A win will most likely send the Tigers to their first BCS title game since 2003, no matter what happens earlier in the day. A loss might result in mass chaos.
Now, without further ado, the Rooting Guide:
1. LSU (9-1)
Losable games: Nov. 23 vs. Arkansas (6-4); Dec. 1 at SEC championship
National title scenario: LSU is No. 1 in four of six computers and enjoys a decent lead in the polls. As long as the Tigers win out, it's unlikely anyone can jump them.
BCS bowl scenario: A two-loss LSU team is assured of at least a BCS at-large berth. And if the Tigers win the SEC but don't get into the national title game, they'll head to New Orleans anyway, for the Sugar Bowl.
Root for: Georgia and Tennessee. LSU would rather play either of these teams than get into a rematch against a very talented Florida team. A Georgia victory over Kentucky on Saturday will for sure keep the Gators out of the SEC title game.
Root against: Oregon, Kansas, Oklahoma. Just for insurance.
2. Oregon (8-1)
Losable game: Dec. 1 vs. Oregon State (6-4)
National title scenario: The Ducks may be No. 2, but they have plenty to worry about. Since they do not have another marquee game left, they are vulnerable in the polls. And if Kansas goes undefeated, they may not be able to fend off the Jayhawks for the No. 2 spot.
BCS bowl scenario: The Ducks control the Pac-10 race. But one more loss can knock them out of a Rose Bowl berth if Arizona State finishes unbeaten. In that case, they may be headed for the Fiesta Bowl.
Root for: Oregon State. The Ducks need the Beavers to bring a good record to the Civil War so they can make some noise on the final day of the regular season.
Root against: LSU, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arizona State.
3. Kansas (10-0)
Losable games: Nov. 24 vs. Missouri (9-1); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
National title scenario: Kansas is probably the team that has the firmest control of its own destiny, even more so than LSU. A 13-0 Jayhawks team, with wins over Missouri and Oklahoma, almost certainly will jump to no worse than No. 2 in the polls and collect enough computer support to land in the BCS title game.
BCS bowl scenario: It might be an all-or-nothing deal. A loss to Missouri probably will cost the Jayhawks a spot in the Big XII title game, and with it, maybe even a BCS at-large berth. A win over the Tigers in Kansas City will probably assure KU its first-ever BCS bowl appearance.
Root for: Oklahoma. If the Jayhawks were to achieve this improbable dream, they need the big bad Sooners to be 11-1 heading into the Big XII title game.
Root against: LSU, Oregon, Missouri. Yes, Mizzou. If you're a Jayhawks fan, you need to hedge your bet. A Tigers loss to K-State will clinch the Big XII North for KU and a berth in the Big XII title game.
4. Oklahoma (9-1)
Losable games: Nov. 17 at Texas Tech (7-4); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
National title scenario: The Sooners will really rue that shocking loss to Colorado back on Sept. 29. It's going to take either Oregon or LSU losing to get them into the national championship game. But their prospect is already much improved just a week later.
BCS bowl scenario: It's possible for OU to reach the Big XII title game but be shut out of a BCS berth altogether. Here's how: If Missouri defeats a previously unbeaten Kansas and then upsets Oklahoma in the Big XII title game, then the Tigers get the Fiesta Bowl berth and KU might steal the at-large berth with just one loss.
Root for: Kansas. That being said, OU wants the Jayhawks to come into the Big XII title game unbeaten and then puts the hurt on them. That will help things if the battle for the national title game spots gets tight.
Root against: LSU, Oregon, West Virginia. The Mountaineers are not really in the hunt, but just in case.
5. Missouri (9-1)
Losable games: Nov. 17 at Kansas State (5-5); Nov. 24 vs. Kansas (10-0); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship game
National title scenario: A week later, Missouri is just a LSU or Oregon loss away from controlling its own destiny when it comes to the BCS title chase.
BCS bowl scenario: The Tigers do control their own destiny here. Win the Big XII, a trip to the Fiesta Bowl is guaranteed, if not the national championship game.
Root for: Oklahoma. For sweet revenge, Missouri wants the Sooners in the Big XII title game with an 11-1 record.
Root against: LSU, Oregon, West Virginia, Ohio State and Texas. Yes, if Missouri loses in the Big XII game, it risks losing a BCS at-large berth to a two-loss Longhorns team. A Texas loss to rival A&M will make things easier.
6. West Virginia (8-1)
Key games: Nov.17 at Cincinnati; Nov. 24 vs. Connecticut
BCS bowl prospect: If West Virginia wins out, it will claim the Big East championship and an automatic berth to a BCS bowl game.
Needs help from: No one, right now -- unless you're still thinking about the national championship, then the Mountaineers need everybody in front of them to lose.
7. Ohio State (10-1)
Key game: Nov. 17 at Michigan (8-3)
BCS bowl prospect: The loss to Illinois changed everything. Not only is the national title out of the question, the Buckeyes might not even make it to the Rose Bowl. It does appear that Ohio State would be a lock for a BCS bowl berth, even if it ends the regular season with two consecutive losses..
Needs help from: No one, for now. Unless teams in front of them start losing like crazy.
8. Arizona State (9-1)
Key games: Nov. 22 vs. USC; Dec. 1 vs. Arizona
BCS bowl prospect: The Sun Devils might have lost their shot at the national title game, but a Pac-10 championship, with it a Rose Bowl berth, is still very much in play. By winning its remaining two games, ASU will no do worse than Pac-10 co-champ and a Fiesta Bowl berth.
Needs help from: Oregon. A loss by the Ducks will put the Sun Devils back in the driver's seat in the Pac-10 race and their first Rose Bowl appearance since Jake Plummer was their quarterback.
9. Georgia (8-2)
Key game: Nov. 17 vs. Kentucky
BCS bowl prospect: By winning its remaining two games, Georgia is all but assured of a BCS at-large berth even if it fails to earn a spot in the SEC championship game. If the Bulldogs finish the regular season 10-2, they'll likely earn a trip to the Sugar Bowl should LSU advances to the BCS title game.
Needs help from: Tennessee. If the Vols remain unbeaten the rest of the way, they will have the tiebreaker edge over Georgia in the SEC East, by virtue of their victory over the Bulldogs. If you're only rooting for Georgia to get a BCS berth, then you'd want the Vols to win out so UGA can avoid an SEC title game fight against LSU.
10. Virginia Tech (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 24 at Virginia; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A victory over archrival Virginia will earn the Hokies a trip to Jacksonville, against Boston College or Clemson. An Orange Bowl berth comes with the ACC title.
Needs help from: No one, really. An at-large berth is all but out of the question for any 3-loss team at this point.
11. USC (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 22 at Arizona State; Dec. 1 vs. UCLA
BCS bowl prospect: The Trojans' run as the Pac-10 champ might be over, but they are very much alive for a sixth straight BCS bowl berth, extending their own record. By finishing 10-2 with a win at ASU will assure USC a BCS bowl berth, maybe even a third straight trip to the Rose Bowl, should Oregon move on to the BCS title game.
Needs help from: Oregon. Well, depends on what you're looking for. If the Ducks lose two of their final three, USC can still win the conference. Since that's not likely, Trojans fans are better off rooting for Oregon to get into the title game so USC can get back to Pasadena.
12. Florida (7-3)
Key game: Nov. 24 vs. Florida State
BCS bowl prospect: Even with three losses, the Gators are not quite dead yet. But Kentucky controls Florida's destiny as it's finished with SEC games.
Needs help from: Tennessee and Georgia. Both teams still play Kentucky and if UK beats both of them, then the Gators will win a three-way or four-way tiebreaker. If Kentucky loses to one of them, then the Gators are finished and must wait to see if they get a BCS at-large berth.
13. Texas (9-2)
Key game: Nov. 23 at Texas A&M
BCS bowl prospect: Unless Oklahoma implodes, the Longhorns won't win the Big 12 South. That said, a 10-2 Texas is very much in the hunt for an at-large berth.
Needs help from: Oklahoma. Like it or not, 'Horns fans must root for OU in the Big XII title game. An OU victory gives Texas a shot at a BCS bowl berth. An OU loss means the at-large bid will end up with the Sooners.
14. Virginia (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 24 vs. Virginia Tech; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A win over the Hokies will give the Cavs the division title and a spot in the ACC title game. A win in Jacksonville will earn them an Orange Bowl berth.
Needs help from: No one.
15. Clemson (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 17 vs. Boston College; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A victory over BC will give Clemson the ACC Atlantic title and a chance for its first conference championship under Tommy Bowden.
Needs help from: No one.
16. Hawai'i (9-0)
Key games: Nov. 16 at Nevada; Nov. 23 vs. Boise State; Dec. 1 vs. Washington
BCS bowl prospect: The losses by Michigan and Ohio State have dramatically improved Hawai'i's chances for a BCS at-large berth ... but Colt Brennan's injury might offset that. Hawai'i's final road game of the season, at Nevada, might become perilous if Brennan doesn't recover in time from a concussion.
Needs help from: Michigan. Completely different from last week, now Hawai'i needs the Wolverines to beat Ohio State. While Hawai'i's hopes for a Top 12 finish and a guaranteed bid have all but evaporated, it's now very much alive for an at-large bid via the Top 16 rule. If Michigan wins the Big Ten, most likely it will still rank behind Hawai'i and therefore the Warriors qualify for a BCS bid by finishing in the Top 16 in the BCS standings.
17. Boston College (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 17 at Clemson; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: Saturday's game at Clemson will decide who wins the ACC Atlantic. And then it's onto Jacksonville for the ACC title game against the Virginia-Virginia Tech winner.
Needs help from: No one.
18. Boise State (9-1)
Key game: Nov. 23 at Hawai'i
BCS bowl prospect: Believe it or not, the Broncos suddenly have a shot to become the first non-BCS school to earn back-to-back BCS appearances. Upset losses by Michigan and Ohio State opened the door for Boise State, just as they did for Hawai'i.
Needs help from: Michigan and Hawai'i. Like the Warriors, a Wolverines win might get the Broncos in the BCS picture via the Top 16 rule. And of course, Boise State wants the Warriors to win all their remaining games and be a perfect 10-0 before the showdown.
20. Tennessee (7-3)
Key games: Nov. 17 vs. Vanderbilt; Nov. 24 at Kentucky; Dec. 1 SEC championship
BCS bowl prospect: The Vols control their own BCS destiny. Win their remaining three games, including the SEC title game, they will be in the Sugar Bowl. Lose just once, it will all go kaput.
Needs help from: No one. One Tennessee loss will hand the SEC East to either Georgia or Florida. There is no backdoor way in.
21. Michigan (8-3)
Key game: Nov. 17 vs. Ohio State
BCS bowl prospect: The loss to Wisconsin didn't really cost Michigan anything, after the Buckeyes also lost to Illinois. A victory gives Michigan the outright Big Ten title and its fourth trip to the Rose Bowl in five years. A loss, it might be, gulp, the Champs Sports Bowl.
Needs help from: No one.
22. Cincinnati (8-2)
Key game: Nov. 17 vs. West Virginia
BCS bowl prospect: The Bearcats need a little help, but if they can beat West Virginia at home, they will have a great shot at winning their first Big East title and a BCS bowl berth.
Needs help from: Connecticut. If the Huskies lose one of their remaining two games, then the Bearcats will claim the Big East championship by winning out. UConn finishes the season with a trip to Morgantown.
24. Connecticut (8-2)
Key game: Nov. 24 at West Virginia
BCS bowl prospect: This should be basketball season in Storrs by now, but the football Huskies still have all the marbles to play for. Most likely, the Big East title will be decided in Morgantown.
Needs help from: No one. UConn controls its own destiny, but a loss will end all hope.
Thursday, November 8, 2007
Rooting Guide ... Part Deux
OK, Mountaineers fans: The Guru knows you're unhappy that West Virginia is relegated to the also-ran part of the Rooting Guide, and you have many righteous reasons to be upset. But here's the reality check: There is just about no way that WVU would make it to the national championship game.
Why? Simple, the computers. Besides Richard Billingsley, whose rankings are almost always the oddballs and tend to favor traditional powers (West Virginia among them), the computers uniformly have the Mountaineers between 10th and 12th. After losing last week, both Boston College and Arizona State still stay well in front of WVU on the computers -- as do all BCS conference teams with no more than one loss.
That makes WVU's quest a near-impossible one. Any team currently in the top 10 with zero or one loss will probably stay in the top 10 even after another defeat. Ohio State, even with a loss to Michigan, most likely will still be ahead of West Virginia in the BCS standings. This is now a mathematical quagmire for the Mountaineers, whose best hope for 2007 appears to be the Big East championship and a BCS bowl berth.
With that, we'll begin the second part of the Rooting Guide:
7. West Virginia (7-1)
Key games: Nov. 8 vs. Louisville; Nov.17 at Cincinnati; Nov. 24 vs. Connecticut
BCS bowl prospect: Controls its own destiny. If West Virginia wins out, it will claim the Big East championship and an automatic berth to a BCS bowl game, possibly the Rose Bowl.
Needs help from: No one, right now -- unless you're still thinking about the national championship, then the Mountaineers need everybody in front of them to lose, some twice.
8. Boston College (8-1)
Key games: Nov. 17 at Clemson; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: National championship out of the window, the Eagles will have to refocus on winning the ACC. Next week's game at Clemson will probably decide who wins the ACC Atlantic. And then it's onto Jacksonville for the ACC title game against the Virginia-Virginia Tech winner.
Needs help from: Wake Forest. A victory by the Demon Deacons over Clemson this week will give the Eagles a little cushion in the division. A 10-3 BC that loses in the ACC title game, though, most likely will not get a BCS at-large bid.
9. Arizona State (8-1)
Key games: Nov. 22 vs. USC; Dec. 1 vs. Arizona
BCS bowl prospect: The Sun Devils might have lost their shot at the national title game, but a Pac-10 championship, with it a Rose Bowl berth, is still very much in play. By winning its remaining three games, ASU will no do worse than Pac-10 co-champ and a Fiesta Bowl berth.
Needs help from: Oregon. A loss by the Ducks will put the Sun Devils back in the driver's seat in the Pac-10 race and their first Rose Bowl appearance since Jake Plummer was their quarterback.
10. Georgia (7-2)
Key games: Nov. 10 vs. Auburn; Nov. 17 vs. Kentucky
BCS bowl prospect: By winning its remaining games, Georgia is all but assured of a BCS at-large berth even if it fails to earn a spot in the SEC championship game. If the Bulldogs finish the regular season 10-2, they'll likely earn a trip to the Sugar Bowl should LSU advances to the BCS title game.
Needs help from: Tennessee. If the Vols remain unbeaten the rest of the way, they will have the tiebreaker edge over Georgia in the SEC East, by virtue of their victory over the Bulldogs.
11. Virginia Tech (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 24 at Virginia; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A victory over archrival Virginia will earn the Hokies a trip to Jacksonville, most likely against Boston College. An Orange Bowl berth comes with the ACC title.
Needs help from: No one, really. An at-large berth is all but out of the question for any 3-loss team at this point.
12. Michigan (8-2)
Key game: Nov. 17 vs. Ohio State
BCS bowl prospect: Back on Sept. 8, this seems an unlikely spot for the Wolverines. But it's now a one-game season for Michigan, just like it almost always is: Win, a trip to the Rose Bowl and Big Ten title. Lose, nothing (OK, maybe a trip to Orlando, but, in the eyes of Michigan fans, nothing).
Needs help from: No one.
13. Connecticut (8-1)
Key games: Nov. 10 at Cincinnati; Nov. 24 at West Virginia
BCS bowl prospect: This should be basketball season in Storrs by now, but the football Huskies still have all the marbles to play for. Most likely, the Big East title will be decided in Morgantown. A two-loss UConn also might have a shot at a BCS at-large berth.
Needs help from: West Virginia. A Mountaineers loss will put the Huskies in the cat-bird seat, with a two-game lead, in the Big East race.
14. Texas (8-2)
Key game: Nov. 23 at Texas A&M
BCS bowl prospect: Unless Oklahoma implodes, the Longhorns won't win the Big 12 South. That said, a 10-2 Texas is very much in the hunt for an at-large berth.
Needs help from: Oklahoma. Like it or not, 'Horns fans must root for OU in the Big 12 title game. An OU victory gives Texas a shot at a BCS bowl berth. An OU loss means the at-large bid will end up with the Sooners.
15. Florida (6-3)
Key game: Nov. 10 at South Carolina
BCS bowl prospect: Even with three losses, the Gators are not quite dead yet. If fact, it's possible for Florida to earn a BCS bowl berth with an 8-5 record. Here's how ...
Needs help from: Tennessee, Georgia. ... should both Tennessee and Georgia lose one (but not more) of their remaining games, and Florida beats the Ol' Ball Coach, then the Gators win the SEC East even if it falls on its face against Florida Atlantic and Florida State. Considering the remaining schedules for both the Vols and Bulldogs, it's not at all improbable.
16. Hawai'i (8-0)
Key games: Nov. 23 vs. Boise State; Dec. 1 vs. Washington
BCS bowl prospect: Fading but still breathing. It goes without saying that the Warriors need to go undefeated. But besides that, they might have hit their high-water mark two weeks ago at No. 14 and they're now sliding back.
Needs help from: Michigan, Connecticut and Boise State. A Michigan win over Ohio State would be devastating for Hawai'i, for that would get the Big Ten a second BCS berth and keep Hawai'i out of the Top 12, where it needs to be for a guaranteed berth. Likewise, a UConn win at West Virginia might hand the Big East two berths. Finally, Hawai'i needs Boise State to be 10-1 when it comes to the islands -- that will constitute the only game against a ranked team that the Warriors play all season.
17. USC (7-2)
Key games: Nov. 10 at California; Nov. 22 at Arizona State
BCS bowl prospect: The Trojans' run as the Pac-10 champ might be over, but they are very much alive for a sixth straight BCS bowl berth, extending their own record. By finishing 10-2 with a win at ASU will assure USC a BCS bowl berth, maybe even a third straight trip to the Rose Bowl, should Oregon move on to the BCS title game.
Needs help from: Oregon. Well, depends on what you're looking for. If the Ducks lose two of their final three, USC can still win the conference. Since that's not likely, Trojans fans are better off rooting for Oregon to get into the title game so USC can get back to Pasadena.
19. Virginia (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 24 vs. Virginia Tech; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A win over the Hokies will give the Cavs the division title and a spot in the ACC title game. A win in Jacksonville will earn them an Orange Bowl berth.
Needs help from: No one.
21. Clemson (7-2)
Key games: Nov. 10 vs. Wake Forest; Nov. 17 vs. Boston College
BCS bowl prospect: Believe it or not, the Tigers control the ACC Atlantic race, thanks to Papa Bowden. FSU's victory over BC last week allows Clemson a clear path to the ACC title game, needing just home wins over Wake and BC.
Needs help from: No one.
24. Tennessee (6-3)
Key games: Nov. 10 vs. Arkansas; Nov. 24 at Kentucky
BCS bowl prospect: The Vols are the lowest-ranked team that control their own BCS destiny. Win their remaining four games, including the SEC title game, they will be in the Sugar Bowl. Lose just once, it can all go kaput.
Needs help from: No one and everyone. There are too many tiebreaker scenarios to cover here, so for its own sake, Tennessee had better keep winning games.
25. Kentucky (6-3)
Key games: Nov. 17 at Georgia; Nov. 24 vs. Tennessee
BCS bowl prospect: Kentucky still has a shot to win the SEC East, and it's not necessarily a longshot. It all depends on what happens this weekend's game involving ...
Needs help from: Florida. If the Gators lose at South Carolina, then Kentucky can take the division and play in its first SEC title game by winning their remaining games. If Florida wins, it's all over for the Wildcats.Hwa
Why? Simple, the computers. Besides Richard Billingsley, whose rankings are almost always the oddballs and tend to favor traditional powers (West Virginia among them), the computers uniformly have the Mountaineers between 10th and 12th. After losing last week, both Boston College and Arizona State still stay well in front of WVU on the computers -- as do all BCS conference teams with no more than one loss.
That makes WVU's quest a near-impossible one. Any team currently in the top 10 with zero or one loss will probably stay in the top 10 even after another defeat. Ohio State, even with a loss to Michigan, most likely will still be ahead of West Virginia in the BCS standings. This is now a mathematical quagmire for the Mountaineers, whose best hope for 2007 appears to be the Big East championship and a BCS bowl berth.
With that, we'll begin the second part of the Rooting Guide:
7. West Virginia (7-1)
Key games: Nov. 8 vs. Louisville; Nov.17 at Cincinnati; Nov. 24 vs. Connecticut
BCS bowl prospect: Controls its own destiny. If West Virginia wins out, it will claim the Big East championship and an automatic berth to a BCS bowl game, possibly the Rose Bowl.
Needs help from: No one, right now -- unless you're still thinking about the national championship, then the Mountaineers need everybody in front of them to lose, some twice.
8. Boston College (8-1)
Key games: Nov. 17 at Clemson; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: National championship out of the window, the Eagles will have to refocus on winning the ACC. Next week's game at Clemson will probably decide who wins the ACC Atlantic. And then it's onto Jacksonville for the ACC title game against the Virginia-Virginia Tech winner.
Needs help from: Wake Forest. A victory by the Demon Deacons over Clemson this week will give the Eagles a little cushion in the division. A 10-3 BC that loses in the ACC title game, though, most likely will not get a BCS at-large bid.
9. Arizona State (8-1)
Key games: Nov. 22 vs. USC; Dec. 1 vs. Arizona
BCS bowl prospect: The Sun Devils might have lost their shot at the national title game, but a Pac-10 championship, with it a Rose Bowl berth, is still very much in play. By winning its remaining three games, ASU will no do worse than Pac-10 co-champ and a Fiesta Bowl berth.
Needs help from: Oregon. A loss by the Ducks will put the Sun Devils back in the driver's seat in the Pac-10 race and their first Rose Bowl appearance since Jake Plummer was their quarterback.
10. Georgia (7-2)
Key games: Nov. 10 vs. Auburn; Nov. 17 vs. Kentucky
BCS bowl prospect: By winning its remaining games, Georgia is all but assured of a BCS at-large berth even if it fails to earn a spot in the SEC championship game. If the Bulldogs finish the regular season 10-2, they'll likely earn a trip to the Sugar Bowl should LSU advances to the BCS title game.
Needs help from: Tennessee. If the Vols remain unbeaten the rest of the way, they will have the tiebreaker edge over Georgia in the SEC East, by virtue of their victory over the Bulldogs.
11. Virginia Tech (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 24 at Virginia; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A victory over archrival Virginia will earn the Hokies a trip to Jacksonville, most likely against Boston College. An Orange Bowl berth comes with the ACC title.
Needs help from: No one, really. An at-large berth is all but out of the question for any 3-loss team at this point.
12. Michigan (8-2)
Key game: Nov. 17 vs. Ohio State
BCS bowl prospect: Back on Sept. 8, this seems an unlikely spot for the Wolverines. But it's now a one-game season for Michigan, just like it almost always is: Win, a trip to the Rose Bowl and Big Ten title. Lose, nothing (OK, maybe a trip to Orlando, but, in the eyes of Michigan fans, nothing).
Needs help from: No one.
13. Connecticut (8-1)
Key games: Nov. 10 at Cincinnati; Nov. 24 at West Virginia
BCS bowl prospect: This should be basketball season in Storrs by now, but the football Huskies still have all the marbles to play for. Most likely, the Big East title will be decided in Morgantown. A two-loss UConn also might have a shot at a BCS at-large berth.
Needs help from: West Virginia. A Mountaineers loss will put the Huskies in the cat-bird seat, with a two-game lead, in the Big East race.
14. Texas (8-2)
Key game: Nov. 23 at Texas A&M
BCS bowl prospect: Unless Oklahoma implodes, the Longhorns won't win the Big 12 South. That said, a 10-2 Texas is very much in the hunt for an at-large berth.
Needs help from: Oklahoma. Like it or not, 'Horns fans must root for OU in the Big 12 title game. An OU victory gives Texas a shot at a BCS bowl berth. An OU loss means the at-large bid will end up with the Sooners.
15. Florida (6-3)
Key game: Nov. 10 at South Carolina
BCS bowl prospect: Even with three losses, the Gators are not quite dead yet. If fact, it's possible for Florida to earn a BCS bowl berth with an 8-5 record. Here's how ...
Needs help from: Tennessee, Georgia. ... should both Tennessee and Georgia lose one (but not more) of their remaining games, and Florida beats the Ol' Ball Coach, then the Gators win the SEC East even if it falls on its face against Florida Atlantic and Florida State. Considering the remaining schedules for both the Vols and Bulldogs, it's not at all improbable.
16. Hawai'i (8-0)
Key games: Nov. 23 vs. Boise State; Dec. 1 vs. Washington
BCS bowl prospect: Fading but still breathing. It goes without saying that the Warriors need to go undefeated. But besides that, they might have hit their high-water mark two weeks ago at No. 14 and they're now sliding back.
Needs help from: Michigan, Connecticut and Boise State. A Michigan win over Ohio State would be devastating for Hawai'i, for that would get the Big Ten a second BCS berth and keep Hawai'i out of the Top 12, where it needs to be for a guaranteed berth. Likewise, a UConn win at West Virginia might hand the Big East two berths. Finally, Hawai'i needs Boise State to be 10-1 when it comes to the islands -- that will constitute the only game against a ranked team that the Warriors play all season.
17. USC (7-2)
Key games: Nov. 10 at California; Nov. 22 at Arizona State
BCS bowl prospect: The Trojans' run as the Pac-10 champ might be over, but they are very much alive for a sixth straight BCS bowl berth, extending their own record. By finishing 10-2 with a win at ASU will assure USC a BCS bowl berth, maybe even a third straight trip to the Rose Bowl, should Oregon move on to the BCS title game.
Needs help from: Oregon. Well, depends on what you're looking for. If the Ducks lose two of their final three, USC can still win the conference. Since that's not likely, Trojans fans are better off rooting for Oregon to get into the title game so USC can get back to Pasadena.
19. Virginia (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 24 vs. Virginia Tech; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A win over the Hokies will give the Cavs the division title and a spot in the ACC title game. A win in Jacksonville will earn them an Orange Bowl berth.
Needs help from: No one.
21. Clemson (7-2)
Key games: Nov. 10 vs. Wake Forest; Nov. 17 vs. Boston College
BCS bowl prospect: Believe it or not, the Tigers control the ACC Atlantic race, thanks to Papa Bowden. FSU's victory over BC last week allows Clemson a clear path to the ACC title game, needing just home wins over Wake and BC.
Needs help from: No one.
24. Tennessee (6-3)
Key games: Nov. 10 vs. Arkansas; Nov. 24 at Kentucky
BCS bowl prospect: The Vols are the lowest-ranked team that control their own BCS destiny. Win their remaining four games, including the SEC title game, they will be in the Sugar Bowl. Lose just once, it can all go kaput.
Needs help from: No one and everyone. There are too many tiebreaker scenarios to cover here, so for its own sake, Tennessee had better keep winning games.
25. Kentucky (6-3)
Key games: Nov. 17 at Georgia; Nov. 24 vs. Tennessee
BCS bowl prospect: Kentucky still has a shot to win the SEC East, and it's not necessarily a longshot. It all depends on what happens this weekend's game involving ...
Needs help from: Florida. If the Gators lose at South Carolina, then Kentucky can take the division and play in its first SEC title game by winning their remaining games. If Florida wins, it's all over for the Wildcats.Hwa
Monday, November 5, 2007
The Guru's Rooting Guide
When the gun goes off at Michigan Stadium around 3:30 p.m. on Nov. 17, it will be the first game to end the 2007 regular season for both teams.
The question is: Will it really mark the start of the 2007 season?
An Ohio State victory will certainly return the Buckeyes to the BCS national championship game, leaving a mad scramble for perhaps half a dozen teams to claim the other spot. The contest will be a multi-media event, involving not only winning games on the field, but stating your case and having allies in the media to state your case for you.
But what if Ohio State loses?
It would be an upset, but hardly a historic one (we've had a few already this season, including one that kicked it off at the Big House). And a Buckeyes loss not only knocks them out of the national title picture, but leaves them out of a Rose Bowl berth as well. So now we'll have two available slots in the title game, and new battle lines will be drawn for the other eight BCS bowl spots.
To help you navigate through the finishing stretch of this turbulent season, the Guru presents the Rooting Guide. Now you will know who your friends and enemies are, and not make the mistake of rooting for the wrong team(s) at the most inopportune time.
1. Ohio State (10-0)
Losable game: Nov. 17 at Michigan (8-2)
National title scenario: Controls its own destiny -- the only team that can say so with confidence. If Ohio State wins its remaining two games (vs. Illinois this week), then it will play for the BCS title for the second straight year.
BCS bowl scenario: No matter what happens, the Buckeyes won't be playing in the Rose Bowl. Win, then it's on to the title game in New Orleans. Lose, Michigan wins the Big Ten and nudges Ohio State to an at-large berth.
Root for: No one.
Root against: No one. It's highly unlikely that Ohio State would stay in the national title game hunt if it loses to Michigan.
2. LSU (8-1)
Losable games: Nov. 23 vs. Arkansas (6-3); Dec. 1 at SEC championship
National title scenario: The Bayou Bengals have the No. 2 spot for now. But it's conceivable that they would be jumped by an undefeated Kansas or, less likely, by No. 3 Oregon. LSU can use a little bit of insurance.
BCS bowl scenario: A two-loss LSU team is assured of at least a BCS at-large berth. And if the Tigers win the SEC but don't get into the national title game, they'll head to New Orleans anyway, for the Sugar Bowl.
Root for: Georgia and Arkansas. LSU needs both of those teams to have as good a record as possible to impress both computers and human voters.
Root against: Ohio State, Oregon, Kansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee. The first four are fairly obvious, and the Tigers really don't want to play a 3-loss (or even maybe a 4-loss) Vols in the SEC title game.
3. Oregon (8-1)
Losable game: Dec. 1 vs. Oregon State (5-4)
National title scenario: The Ducks may be No. 3, but they're far from one LSU loss to be assured of a BCS title shot. They could jump LSU even if the Tigers win out. And they could be jumped by Kansas even if they win out. Since none of the Ducks' remaining opponents are even ranked, the most they can do is to finish strong and hope for the best.
BCS bowl scenario: The Ducks control the Pac-10 race. But one more loss can knock them out of a Rose Bowl berth if Arizona State finishes unbeaten. In that case, they may be headed for the Fiesta Bowl.
Root for: Oregon State. The Ducks need the Beavers to bring a good record to the Civil War so they can make some noise on the final day of the regular season.
Root against: Ohio State, LSU, Kansas, Oklahoma.
4. Kansas (9-0)
Losable games: Nov. 10 at Oklahoma State (5-4); Nov. 24 vs. Missouri (8-1); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
National title scenario: Besides Ohio State, Kansas is probably the team that has the firmest control of its own destiny. A 13-0 Jayhawks team, with wins over Missouri and Oklahoma, almost certainly will jump to No. 2 in the polls and collect enough computer support to land in the BCS title game.
BCS bowl scenario: Of all the contenders, Kansas has the toughest road ahead to remain unbeaten. A loss to Missouri probably will cost the Jayhawks a spot in the Big XII title game, and with it, a BCS at-large berth. A win over the Tigers in Kansas City will probably assure KU its first-ever BCS bowl appearance.
Root for: Oklahoma. If the Jayhawks were to achieve this improbable dream, they need the big bad Sooners to be 11-1 heading into the Big XII title game.
Root against: Ohio State, LSU, Oregon, Missouri. Yes, Mizzou. If you're a Jayhawks fan, you need to hedge your bet. A Tigers loss (or two) will make things easier for KU to clinch the Big XII North and gain a BCS bowl invite.
5. Oklahoma (8-1)
Losable games: Nov. 17 at Texas Tech (7-3); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
National title scenario: The Sooners will really rue that shocking loss to Colorado back on Sept. 29. It's going to take at least two of the top three teams losing to get them into the national championship game. But in this strange season, you never say never.
BCS bowl scenario: It's possible for OU to reach the Big XII title game but be shut out of a BCS berth altogether. Here's how: If Missouri defeats a previously unbeaten Kansas and then upsets Oklahoma in the Big XII title game, then the Tigers get the Fiesta Bowl berth and KU might steal the at-large berth with just one loss.
Root for: Kansas. That being said, OU wants the Jayhawks to come into the Big XII title game unbeaten and then puts the hurt on them. That will help things if the battle for the national title game spots gets tight.
Root against: Ohio State, LSU, Oregon, West Virginia. The Mountaineers are not really in the hunt, but just in case.
6. Missouri (8-1)
Losable games: Nov. 17 at Kansas State (5-4); Nov. 24 vs. Kansas (9-0); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship game
National title scenario: After further review, the Guru decided to put the Tigers back in the national title chase, even if their chances are slim to none. In this crazy season, if two of the top three teams lose down the stretch, Mizzou will have a shot if it wins out.
BCS bowl scenario: The Tigers do control their own destiny here. Go 3-0 the rest of the regular season, a BCS bowl berth is probably assured. Win the Big XII, a trip to the Fiesta Bowl is guaranteed.
Root for: Oklahoma. Just like in Kansas' case, Missouri wants the Sooners in the Big XII title game with an 11-1 record.
Root against: Ohio State, LSU, Oregon, West Virginia.
Later this week, the Guru will break down the chances for the rest of the BCS bowl contenders.
The question is: Will it really mark the start of the 2007 season?
An Ohio State victory will certainly return the Buckeyes to the BCS national championship game, leaving a mad scramble for perhaps half a dozen teams to claim the other spot. The contest will be a multi-media event, involving not only winning games on the field, but stating your case and having allies in the media to state your case for you.
But what if Ohio State loses?
It would be an upset, but hardly a historic one (we've had a few already this season, including one that kicked it off at the Big House). And a Buckeyes loss not only knocks them out of the national title picture, but leaves them out of a Rose Bowl berth as well. So now we'll have two available slots in the title game, and new battle lines will be drawn for the other eight BCS bowl spots.
To help you navigate through the finishing stretch of this turbulent season, the Guru presents the Rooting Guide. Now you will know who your friends and enemies are, and not make the mistake of rooting for the wrong team(s) at the most inopportune time.
1. Ohio State (10-0)
Losable game: Nov. 17 at Michigan (8-2)
National title scenario: Controls its own destiny -- the only team that can say so with confidence. If Ohio State wins its remaining two games (vs. Illinois this week), then it will play for the BCS title for the second straight year.
BCS bowl scenario: No matter what happens, the Buckeyes won't be playing in the Rose Bowl. Win, then it's on to the title game in New Orleans. Lose, Michigan wins the Big Ten and nudges Ohio State to an at-large berth.
Root for: No one.
Root against: No one. It's highly unlikely that Ohio State would stay in the national title game hunt if it loses to Michigan.
2. LSU (8-1)
Losable games: Nov. 23 vs. Arkansas (6-3); Dec. 1 at SEC championship
National title scenario: The Bayou Bengals have the No. 2 spot for now. But it's conceivable that they would be jumped by an undefeated Kansas or, less likely, by No. 3 Oregon. LSU can use a little bit of insurance.
BCS bowl scenario: A two-loss LSU team is assured of at least a BCS at-large berth. And if the Tigers win the SEC but don't get into the national title game, they'll head to New Orleans anyway, for the Sugar Bowl.
Root for: Georgia and Arkansas. LSU needs both of those teams to have as good a record as possible to impress both computers and human voters.
Root against: Ohio State, Oregon, Kansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee. The first four are fairly obvious, and the Tigers really don't want to play a 3-loss (or even maybe a 4-loss) Vols in the SEC title game.
3. Oregon (8-1)
Losable game: Dec. 1 vs. Oregon State (5-4)
National title scenario: The Ducks may be No. 3, but they're far from one LSU loss to be assured of a BCS title shot. They could jump LSU even if the Tigers win out. And they could be jumped by Kansas even if they win out. Since none of the Ducks' remaining opponents are even ranked, the most they can do is to finish strong and hope for the best.
BCS bowl scenario: The Ducks control the Pac-10 race. But one more loss can knock them out of a Rose Bowl berth if Arizona State finishes unbeaten. In that case, they may be headed for the Fiesta Bowl.
Root for: Oregon State. The Ducks need the Beavers to bring a good record to the Civil War so they can make some noise on the final day of the regular season.
Root against: Ohio State, LSU, Kansas, Oklahoma.
4. Kansas (9-0)
Losable games: Nov. 10 at Oklahoma State (5-4); Nov. 24 vs. Missouri (8-1); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
National title scenario: Besides Ohio State, Kansas is probably the team that has the firmest control of its own destiny. A 13-0 Jayhawks team, with wins over Missouri and Oklahoma, almost certainly will jump to No. 2 in the polls and collect enough computer support to land in the BCS title game.
BCS bowl scenario: Of all the contenders, Kansas has the toughest road ahead to remain unbeaten. A loss to Missouri probably will cost the Jayhawks a spot in the Big XII title game, and with it, a BCS at-large berth. A win over the Tigers in Kansas City will probably assure KU its first-ever BCS bowl appearance.
Root for: Oklahoma. If the Jayhawks were to achieve this improbable dream, they need the big bad Sooners to be 11-1 heading into the Big XII title game.
Root against: Ohio State, LSU, Oregon, Missouri. Yes, Mizzou. If you're a Jayhawks fan, you need to hedge your bet. A Tigers loss (or two) will make things easier for KU to clinch the Big XII North and gain a BCS bowl invite.
5. Oklahoma (8-1)
Losable games: Nov. 17 at Texas Tech (7-3); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship
National title scenario: The Sooners will really rue that shocking loss to Colorado back on Sept. 29. It's going to take at least two of the top three teams losing to get them into the national championship game. But in this strange season, you never say never.
BCS bowl scenario: It's possible for OU to reach the Big XII title game but be shut out of a BCS berth altogether. Here's how: If Missouri defeats a previously unbeaten Kansas and then upsets Oklahoma in the Big XII title game, then the Tigers get the Fiesta Bowl berth and KU might steal the at-large berth with just one loss.
Root for: Kansas. That being said, OU wants the Jayhawks to come into the Big XII title game unbeaten and then puts the hurt on them. That will help things if the battle for the national title game spots gets tight.
Root against: Ohio State, LSU, Oregon, West Virginia. The Mountaineers are not really in the hunt, but just in case.
6. Missouri (8-1)
Losable games: Nov. 17 at Kansas State (5-4); Nov. 24 vs. Kansas (9-0); Dec. 1 at Big XII championship game
National title scenario: After further review, the Guru decided to put the Tigers back in the national title chase, even if their chances are slim to none. In this crazy season, if two of the top three teams lose down the stretch, Mizzou will have a shot if it wins out.
BCS bowl scenario: The Tigers do control their own destiny here. Go 3-0 the rest of the regular season, a BCS bowl berth is probably assured. Win the Big XII, a trip to the Fiesta Bowl is guaranteed.
Root for: Oklahoma. Just like in Kansas' case, Missouri wants the Sooners in the Big XII title game with an 11-1 record.
Root against: Ohio State, LSU, Oregon, West Virginia.
Later this week, the Guru will break down the chances for the rest of the BCS bowl contenders.
Monday, October 29, 2007
Only Eight Left
With the avalanche of upsets coming to a halt, the 2007 BCS picture has become a little bit more clear following the release of the new BCS standings. Eight teams, each with no or one loss, still have a shot at reaching the BCS championship game in New Orleans. The rest of them are simply playing for a share from the big bag of money.
Before we get to the business at hand, the Guru would just like to say this: OK, so I gloated a bit after nailing the release of the first 2007 BCS standings. And this week, I had the top nine in the exact order ... but you're not gonna hear me crow -- because it's just so unbecoming.
And there's this little affair of a week ago, when I admittedly whiffed on a couple of projections, specifically projecting LSU to top Boston College for No. 2. The reason for those calculation errors is:
a) I had a bad case of flu while attending a wedding
b) My traveling laptop didn't have all the important data
c) I hurried so I can get to the next round of golf
d) The whole thing is just a scam: The Guru was just throwing darts on a board anyway
I could've picked one or all of the above, but I will instead blame the voters. The projection business is part mathematics and part psychology. While I can pretty consistently nail down the computer rankings, getting the human votes right is much, much harder. Think about it: Between the coaches poll and Harris poll, there are 174 potential voters, each with a mind of his own. They might do what's expected of a rational human being, or they might vote Troy as the 21st best team in the country, as one did this past week.
The point is this: I expected quite a few more voters to cast their ballots for LSU vis-a-vis Boston College, and they thought otherwise. And at this point of the season, the voters will decide everything. Yes, just like last year, when the voters mandated that there would be no rematch between Ohio State and Michigan, they will let us know whom they want in the BCS title game.
Right now, it looks like Ohio State and Boston College.
With mostly only conference games remaining for every team, it's unlikely that you'll see a seismic shift in the computer rankings if a team keeps winning. This is why November is the time to score style points. While computers are not allowed to use margin of victory in their formulas, the voters can freely interpret the meaning of the outcome of each game. Win impressively, you might siphon a few votes from your competitors. Win barely, you'll be punished.
For now, these are the resumes of the Elite Eight:
For sure, one of those teams will be eliminated this weekend, as Oregon and Arizona State clash in Eugene. The loser will not have a chance to play for the national title, and probably be out of the Pac-10 race as well. And then, on Nov. 17, two huge games involving the current Nos. 1 and 2 will either cement their places in New Orleans, or blow the whole thing wide open.
Finally, as promised, this is the Guru's take on Hawai'i: Not good, but improving somewhat. The Rainbow Warriors currently occupy the 14th spot in the BCS rankings, two below what's needed for a guaranteed berth. Hawai'i's computer rankings are 14, 26, 31, 33, 47 and 54. So far, the Warriors are getting no points in the computer ratings and it looks as though they might get just a tad at the end of the season.
So again, it will come down to the human voters. Assuming Hawai'i gets .100 in the computers, it will need to rank about a consensus eighth or ninth in the human polls to pull it off. It will test the willingness of human voters to put a team that so far has played the easiest schedule in all of Division I-A in the Top 10. To me, that seems unlikely.
Then again, if I can divine the intentions of every human voter, then I'm in the wrong business.
Before we get to the business at hand, the Guru would just like to say this: OK, so I gloated a bit after nailing the release of the first 2007 BCS standings. And this week, I had the top nine in the exact order ... but you're not gonna hear me crow -- because it's just so unbecoming.
And there's this little affair of a week ago, when I admittedly whiffed on a couple of projections, specifically projecting LSU to top Boston College for No. 2. The reason for those calculation errors is:
a) I had a bad case of flu while attending a wedding
b) My traveling laptop didn't have all the important data
c) I hurried so I can get to the next round of golf
d) The whole thing is just a scam: The Guru was just throwing darts on a board anyway
I could've picked one or all of the above, but I will instead blame the voters. The projection business is part mathematics and part psychology. While I can pretty consistently nail down the computer rankings, getting the human votes right is much, much harder. Think about it: Between the coaches poll and Harris poll, there are 174 potential voters, each with a mind of his own. They might do what's expected of a rational human being, or they might vote Troy as the 21st best team in the country, as one did this past week.
The point is this: I expected quite a few more voters to cast their ballots for LSU vis-a-vis Boston College, and they thought otherwise. And at this point of the season, the voters will decide everything. Yes, just like last year, when the voters mandated that there would be no rematch between Ohio State and Michigan, they will let us know whom they want in the BCS title game.
Right now, it looks like Ohio State and Boston College.
With mostly only conference games remaining for every team, it's unlikely that you'll see a seismic shift in the computer rankings if a team keeps winning. This is why November is the time to score style points. While computers are not allowed to use margin of victory in their formulas, the voters can freely interpret the meaning of the outcome of each game. Win impressively, you might siphon a few votes from your competitors. Win barely, you'll be punished.
For now, these are the resumes of the Elite Eight:
For sure, one of those teams will be eliminated this weekend, as Oregon and Arizona State clash in Eugene. The loser will not have a chance to play for the national title, and probably be out of the Pac-10 race as well. And then, on Nov. 17, two huge games involving the current Nos. 1 and 2 will either cement their places in New Orleans, or blow the whole thing wide open.
Finally, as promised, this is the Guru's take on Hawai'i: Not good, but improving somewhat. The Rainbow Warriors currently occupy the 14th spot in the BCS rankings, two below what's needed for a guaranteed berth. Hawai'i's computer rankings are 14, 26, 31, 33, 47 and 54. So far, the Warriors are getting no points in the computer ratings and it looks as though they might get just a tad at the end of the season.
So again, it will come down to the human voters. Assuming Hawai'i gets .100 in the computers, it will need to rank about a consensus eighth or ninth in the human polls to pull it off. It will test the willingness of human voters to put a team that so far has played the easiest schedule in all of Division I-A in the Top 10. To me, that seems unlikely.
Then again, if I can divine the intentions of every human voter, then I'm in the wrong business.
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
A Long Way To Go
HARTFORD, Conn. -- The 2007 season may very well turn out to be a make-or-break year for the current BCS system. If the trend of upsets continues, then the public clamoring for a playoff will become more intense. And if, at the end of the season, more than a handful teams have one loss and a beauty contest ensues to determine the participants in the BCS championship game, we'll hear a lot more about the imminent installation of a "Plus-One" scheme.
And don't forget, a split title is very much in the cards as well.
All that said, let's celebrate the story of the week: The University of South Florida Bulls, who rose to No. 2 in the BCS standings. A large public university in Tampa, Fla., USF only started its football program in 1997, as a Division I-AA entry. In 2001, it moved up to I-A. In '03, it joined Conference USA. In '05, it became a member of the Big East. Its meteoric rise is reminiscent of Miami's ascension to the top of college football in the early 1980s.
Will the Bulls' dream season end the way it did for the 'Canes in '83, when they defeated Nebraska in the Orange Bowl for the national championship? Or will it end this Thursday with a loss to Rutgers? In 2007, anything is possible.
Week 8 Guru's List:
GOLD: Ohio State has the perch, for now. And the Buckeyes know how to stay there, having gone through the regular season unbeaten twice in the last five years, including last year. Ohio State plays in an admittedly weak conference and its non-conference schedule is nothing to write home about. Still, if the Buckeyes stay unbeaten, they will be in their second consecutive BCS title game simply on the strength of their poll numbers.
SILVER: South Florida, with a near-perfect computer score, will earn more No. 2 votes in the human polls as the season progresses. Boston College, with only one ranked team remaining on its schedule, will slip further behind an unbeaten USF team. The Eagles will need the Bulls to lose to get up to No. 2.
BRONZE: LSU, despite its triple-overtime loss to Kentucky, is still the best team in the nation and will start gaining on Boston College when USF siphons more No. 2 votes from the Eagles. However, the Tigers do not control their own destiny and will have to root for USF and BC to lose. Ditto for Oklahoma, which has an even more daunting task.
WAITLIST: South Carolina, Kentucky, Arizona State and Oregon.
HAWAI'I WATCH: Optimism from the Island's press aside, it's hard to see the Rainbows making it to a BCS bowl even if they mow down the remaining five opponents. Hawai'i's strength of schedule is awful and therefore its computer scores will be low. A year ago, Boise State had a lofty computer ranking of No. 7 to qualify for the Fiesta Bowl. This year, Hawai'i will be lucky to be in the Top 25 in the computer ratings. With no help from the computers, the Rainbows will need to be in the Top 5 in the human polls to achieve a Top 12 overall ranking. Not gonna happen.
BCS Buster Games for Week 8:
5-Star: Auburn at LSU -- A year ago, an Auburn victory prevented LSU from winning the SEC West and a rematch with Florida. This year, a victory by the Bayou Tigers is a must to take some sting out of losing to Kentucky last week and keep their national championship hopes alive.
4-Star: South Florida at Rutgers (Thursday) -- This is the biggest game in the history of South Florida's football program. Now the Bulls are no longer flying under the radar and the nation will be tuning in to see if they're for real. USF can win friends and influence people with a convincing victory over the Scarred Knights.
3-Star: Florida at Kentucky -- A basketball classic in other years, a football classic in this wild season. Can the Wildcats pull off back-to-back wins over the SEC's titans? Or are they still hung over from their delirious upset win over LSU?
2-Star: California at UCLA -- Two schools, one fight song (different lyrics, though). For years, the mothership is the football (and basketball) biotch of the powder blue gang of the Southern Branch. This time around, the Golden Bears hope they're making the first of two trips to Pasadena.
1-Star: Michigan State at Ohio State -- This rivalry is very much like the one between hammer and nail. Hint: The nail is painted green.
And don't forget, a split title is very much in the cards as well.
All that said, let's celebrate the story of the week: The University of South Florida Bulls, who rose to No. 2 in the BCS standings. A large public university in Tampa, Fla., USF only started its football program in 1997, as a Division I-AA entry. In 2001, it moved up to I-A. In '03, it joined Conference USA. In '05, it became a member of the Big East. Its meteoric rise is reminiscent of Miami's ascension to the top of college football in the early 1980s.
Will the Bulls' dream season end the way it did for the 'Canes in '83, when they defeated Nebraska in the Orange Bowl for the national championship? Or will it end this Thursday with a loss to Rutgers? In 2007, anything is possible.
Week 8 Guru's List:
GOLD: Ohio State has the perch, for now. And the Buckeyes know how to stay there, having gone through the regular season unbeaten twice in the last five years, including last year. Ohio State plays in an admittedly weak conference and its non-conference schedule is nothing to write home about. Still, if the Buckeyes stay unbeaten, they will be in their second consecutive BCS title game simply on the strength of their poll numbers.
SILVER: South Florida, with a near-perfect computer score, will earn more No. 2 votes in the human polls as the season progresses. Boston College, with only one ranked team remaining on its schedule, will slip further behind an unbeaten USF team. The Eagles will need the Bulls to lose to get up to No. 2.
BRONZE: LSU, despite its triple-overtime loss to Kentucky, is still the best team in the nation and will start gaining on Boston College when USF siphons more No. 2 votes from the Eagles. However, the Tigers do not control their own destiny and will have to root for USF and BC to lose. Ditto for Oklahoma, which has an even more daunting task.
WAITLIST: South Carolina, Kentucky, Arizona State and Oregon.
HAWAI'I WATCH: Optimism from the Island's press aside, it's hard to see the Rainbows making it to a BCS bowl even if they mow down the remaining five opponents. Hawai'i's strength of schedule is awful and therefore its computer scores will be low. A year ago, Boise State had a lofty computer ranking of No. 7 to qualify for the Fiesta Bowl. This year, Hawai'i will be lucky to be in the Top 25 in the computer ratings. With no help from the computers, the Rainbows will need to be in the Top 5 in the human polls to achieve a Top 12 overall ranking. Not gonna happen.
BCS Buster Games for Week 8:
5-Star: Auburn at LSU -- A year ago, an Auburn victory prevented LSU from winning the SEC West and a rematch with Florida. This year, a victory by the Bayou Tigers is a must to take some sting out of losing to Kentucky last week and keep their national championship hopes alive.
4-Star: South Florida at Rutgers (Thursday) -- This is the biggest game in the history of South Florida's football program. Now the Bulls are no longer flying under the radar and the nation will be tuning in to see if they're for real. USF can win friends and influence people with a convincing victory over the Scarred Knights.
3-Star: Florida at Kentucky -- A basketball classic in other years, a football classic in this wild season. Can the Wildcats pull off back-to-back wins over the SEC's titans? Or are they still hung over from their delirious upset win over LSU?
2-Star: California at UCLA -- Two schools, one fight song (different lyrics, though). For years, the mothership is the football (and basketball) biotch of the powder blue gang of the Southern Branch. This time around, the Golden Bears hope they're making the first of two trips to Pasadena.
1-Star: Michigan State at Ohio State -- This rivalry is very much like the one between hammer and nail. Hint: The nail is painted green.
Thursday, August 23, 2007
Shocking News ... USC is No. 1
With both the AP poll and coaches poll now available, the BCS Guru has released his 2007 pre-season BCS rankings. And surprisingly, Southern California is ranked first!
All kidding aside, the Trojans are an overwhelming choice in the AP poll and just slightly less so in the coaches poll. Keep in mind the pre-season rankings are little more than the combination of the two human polls, one of which (AP) is not even in the BCS formula. The other human poll, Harris Interactive, won't be released until late September. Five of the six computer ratings will be made available after the first weekend of games; the sixth, Peter Wolfe, won't be unveiled until Oct. 14, the first week of the official BCS standings.
Still, a few observations may be gleamed off the pre-season polls:
1. USC is such an overwhelming choice as the pre-season No. 1 -- for the third time in four seasons -- that if the Trojans go undefeated, they will be a lock for New Orleans.
2. Ditto for Louisiana State.
3. The Big Ten and Big 12 champions, whoever they may be, will have a hard time getting into the national championship game if they fail to go undefeated. The pre-season strength of schedule ratings are quite a bit in favor of the SEC and the Pac-10 and down on the Big Ten and Big 12. The Big East is somewhere in the middle, and the ACC, after Virginia Tech loses to LSU in Baton Rouge, might as well pack up its tent for this year.
4. The Nov. 23 game between Hawaii and Boise State might be the biggest one in WAC history, as a possible BCS berth might be on the line. And both teams have a good shot to be undefeated going into that showdown in Honolulu. Unless ...
5. TCU pulls off the big upset in Austin on Sept. 8 and remains unbeaten through the regular season. In that case, then the Horned Frogs get the at-large bid into the BCS because their computer rankings and human poll rankings are bound to be ahead of the WAC champion.
Now, observations aside, the BCS Guru will make one fearless prediction: Only one team will go undefeated in the regular season, and that team will NOT be USC.
Only LSU will bring an undefeated record into the Louisiana Superdome for the championship game. The Tigers, despite a tough early-season non-conference game against Virginia Tech, have a very favorable schedule. They will play their two toughest SEC opponents -- Florida and Auburn -- at home. They will miss two top SEC teams this year -- Tennessee and Georgia. And they do not have any killer back-to-back weeks.
USC, on the other hand, has a brutal schedule with most of the beasts on the road. Nebraska looms as the second game of the season. Notre Dame, with a mediocre squad, will not mow its grass just so it can throw its entire season on the line against the Trojans. Oh, and between Oct. 20 and Nov. 22, USC will play four of its five games on the road, including stops at South Bend, Eugene, Berkeley and Tempe. Its lone home game in that stretch is against Oregon State, which ended USC's Pac-10 winning streak a year ago.
So there you have it. The Guru sees a clear No. 1 at the end of the regular season and a dogfight (uh, is that now considered to be in bad taste?) for the second spot, with the BCS computers expected to do the dirty work.
Should be an interesting season.
2007 Pre-season BCS Rankings
1. USC ; 2. LSU; 3. Texas; 4. West Virginia; 5. Michigan; 6. Florida; 7. Wisconsin; 8. Oklahoma; 9. Virginia Tech; 10. Louisville; 11. Ohio State; 12. California; 13. Georgia; 14, Tennessee; 15. Auburn; 16. UCLA; 17. Rutgers; 18. Penn State; 19. Nebraska; 20. Arkansas; 21. Florida State; 22. TCU; 23. Hawaii; 24. Boise State; 25. Texas A&M.
All kidding aside, the Trojans are an overwhelming choice in the AP poll and just slightly less so in the coaches poll. Keep in mind the pre-season rankings are little more than the combination of the two human polls, one of which (AP) is not even in the BCS formula. The other human poll, Harris Interactive, won't be released until late September. Five of the six computer ratings will be made available after the first weekend of games; the sixth, Peter Wolfe, won't be unveiled until Oct. 14, the first week of the official BCS standings.
Still, a few observations may be gleamed off the pre-season polls:
1. USC is such an overwhelming choice as the pre-season No. 1 -- for the third time in four seasons -- that if the Trojans go undefeated, they will be a lock for New Orleans.
2. Ditto for Louisiana State.
3. The Big Ten and Big 12 champions, whoever they may be, will have a hard time getting into the national championship game if they fail to go undefeated. The pre-season strength of schedule ratings are quite a bit in favor of the SEC and the Pac-10 and down on the Big Ten and Big 12. The Big East is somewhere in the middle, and the ACC, after Virginia Tech loses to LSU in Baton Rouge, might as well pack up its tent for this year.
4. The Nov. 23 game between Hawaii and Boise State might be the biggest one in WAC history, as a possible BCS berth might be on the line. And both teams have a good shot to be undefeated going into that showdown in Honolulu. Unless ...
5. TCU pulls off the big upset in Austin on Sept. 8 and remains unbeaten through the regular season. In that case, then the Horned Frogs get the at-large bid into the BCS because their computer rankings and human poll rankings are bound to be ahead of the WAC champion.
Now, observations aside, the BCS Guru will make one fearless prediction: Only one team will go undefeated in the regular season, and that team will NOT be USC.
Only LSU will bring an undefeated record into the Louisiana Superdome for the championship game. The Tigers, despite a tough early-season non-conference game against Virginia Tech, have a very favorable schedule. They will play their two toughest SEC opponents -- Florida and Auburn -- at home. They will miss two top SEC teams this year -- Tennessee and Georgia. And they do not have any killer back-to-back weeks.
USC, on the other hand, has a brutal schedule with most of the beasts on the road. Nebraska looms as the second game of the season. Notre Dame, with a mediocre squad, will not mow its grass just so it can throw its entire season on the line against the Trojans. Oh, and between Oct. 20 and Nov. 22, USC will play four of its five games on the road, including stops at South Bend, Eugene, Berkeley and Tempe. Its lone home game in that stretch is against Oregon State, which ended USC's Pac-10 winning streak a year ago.
So there you have it. The Guru sees a clear No. 1 at the end of the regular season and a dogfight (uh, is that now considered to be in bad taste?) for the second spot, with the BCS computers expected to do the dirty work.
Should be an interesting season.
2007 Pre-season BCS Rankings
1. USC ; 2. LSU; 3. Texas; 4. West Virginia; 5. Michigan; 6. Florida; 7. Wisconsin; 8. Oklahoma; 9. Virginia Tech; 10. Louisville; 11. Ohio State; 12. California; 13. Georgia; 14, Tennessee; 15. Auburn; 16. UCLA; 17. Rutgers; 18. Penn State; 19. Nebraska; 20. Arkansas; 21. Florida State; 22. TCU; 23. Hawaii; 24. Boise State; 25. Texas A&M.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
