When the latest BCS standings were unveiled last Sunday, the biggest surprise didn't come anywhere near the top of the standings. Rather, it was the inexplicable jump by Northern Illinois, leapfrogging Fresno State for the first time since the official BCS standings were released more than a month ago.
To be sure, the Huskies didn't get any of their boost from the humans as they lost ground to the Bulldogs in both polls last week. But they made a quantum leap in the computer rankings, going from being ranked 12th the week before to seventh in the new standings.
That NIU made that big of a jump from a victory over Toledo—a solid MAC team but otherwise nothing special—is both surprising and alarming. Very rarely has there been that much of a gain in the computers by one team this late in the season, when computer rankings are less volatile. And most problematic is that this shift seems inexplicable.
To-date, Northern Illinois has played a schedule that's ranked 89th by Kenneth Massey (one of the six BCS computers) out of 125 FBS teams. That compares favorably to Fresno State's SoS of 108th, but not a schedule worthy of a top 10 ranking.
So how do you explain the inexplicable? You can't (that's why it's called "inexplicable").
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Showing posts with label Fresno State. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fresno State. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 26, 2013
Tuesday, November 12, 2013
Voter Bias May Doom NIU's BCS Quest
Are the voters still holding last season's Orange Bowl against Northern Illinois?
That certainly appears to be the case. While the Huskies have continued their unbeaten run this season, their position in the polls seems to be stuck in neutral.
In contrast, their main competitor for the non-AQ BCS spot, Fresno State, has made much more significant gains in the polls. The Bulldogs now have a commanding lead in the latest BCS standings, even though at No. 14, they're just one spot ahead of Northern Illinois.
Fresno State's lead is built entirely on the polls, as the two teams—both 9-0—are in a dead heat in the computer rankings. But since the polls account for two thirds of the BCS standings, voter preference most likely will decide which team gets the coveted BCS bowl slot (and a bonus in excess of $10 million to that team's conference).
To qualify for the berth, likely in the Fiesta Bowl, Fresno or NIU must finish in the top 16 of the final BCS standings and ahead one of the current AQ conference champion, or in the top 12. And only the highest-ranked team will earn the BCS berth even if both meet the qualification.
Since the Harris Poll was released in Week 7, here's the progression of both teams in the two polls:
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
That certainly appears to be the case. While the Huskies have continued their unbeaten run this season, their position in the polls seems to be stuck in neutral.
In contrast, their main competitor for the non-AQ BCS spot, Fresno State, has made much more significant gains in the polls. The Bulldogs now have a commanding lead in the latest BCS standings, even though at No. 14, they're just one spot ahead of Northern Illinois.
Fresno State's lead is built entirely on the polls, as the two teams—both 9-0—are in a dead heat in the computer rankings. But since the polls account for two thirds of the BCS standings, voter preference most likely will decide which team gets the coveted BCS bowl slot (and a bonus in excess of $10 million to that team's conference).
To qualify for the berth, likely in the Fiesta Bowl, Fresno or NIU must finish in the top 16 of the final BCS standings and ahead one of the current AQ conference champion, or in the top 12. And only the highest-ranked team will earn the BCS berth even if both meet the qualification.
Since the Harris Poll was released in Week 7, here's the progression of both teams in the two polls:
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Friday, September 27, 2013
Does Any Non-AQ Team Really Have a Shot?
Four weeks into the 2013 season, it's obvious that the flurry of conference realignment moves over the past two seasons have clearly created a chasm between college football's haves and have-nots.
Beginning with Nebraska's defection to the Big Ten in 2011, the big five conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC) will have seen seven members switch allegiances and added five new schools by next season. The former Big East has disintegrated and will become a rump conference of mostly former Conference USA teams by 2014 while the Western Athletic Conference has vaporized altogether.
As a result, the non-Automatic Qualifying conferences have never been more marginalized, with most of their best schools having been plucked by the big boys. In this week's simulated BCS standings, there's an all-time low in teams appearing in the standings anywhere since the BCS Guru began the compilation in the 2007 season. A total of just three non-AQ teams—No. 25 Fresno State, No. 30 Northern Illinois and No. 39 Navy—are listed among the 44 teams qualifying for the standings.
Without a doubt, a non-AQ team's inclusion to this year's BCS bowl games is very much in peril.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Beginning with Nebraska's defection to the Big Ten in 2011, the big five conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC) will have seen seven members switch allegiances and added five new schools by next season. The former Big East has disintegrated and will become a rump conference of mostly former Conference USA teams by 2014 while the Western Athletic Conference has vaporized altogether.
As a result, the non-Automatic Qualifying conferences have never been more marginalized, with most of their best schools having been plucked by the big boys. In this week's simulated BCS standings, there's an all-time low in teams appearing in the standings anywhere since the BCS Guru began the compilation in the 2007 season. A total of just three non-AQ teams—No. 25 Fresno State, No. 30 Northern Illinois and No. 39 Navy—are listed among the 44 teams qualifying for the standings.
Without a doubt, a non-AQ team's inclusion to this year's BCS bowl games is very much in peril.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Saturday, September 21, 2013
Boise State Is In Trouble, But Not Dead Yet
The King is dead, long live the king!
Or is he?
After Fresno State's thrilling 41-40 victory over Boise State in front of a raucous San Joaquin Valley crowd Friday night, it sure appears that the Broncos' days as the top dog of BCS busters are over.
But as Lee Corso might say ... not so fast, my friend!
Already with two losses this season, Boise State certainly seems to be rebuilding after seven straight seasons with at least 11 wins. In fact, since the BCS adopted the current format to add a BCS bowl in 2006, the Broncos have been in contention for a BCS berth every single year:
In 2006 and 2009, they earned a BCS bid and won the Fiesta Bowl each time.
In 2007, they lost to Hawaii in the last regular-season game and the Warriors got the BCS buster bid (then promptly got thrashed in the Sugar Bowl).
In 2008, they finished the regular season undefeated but was relegated to the Poinsettia Bowl when Utah finished higher in the BCS standings.
In 2010 and 2011, they were on course for a BCS buster bid when their undefeated seasons were derailed in November on a missed field goal (vs. Nevada in '10 and TCU in '11).
In 2012, they lost the season opener at Michigan State but still had a chance for a BCS bid until a 21-19 home loss to San Diego State.
(FULL ARTICLE @ BLEACHER REPORT)
Or is he?
After Fresno State's thrilling 41-40 victory over Boise State in front of a raucous San Joaquin Valley crowd Friday night, it sure appears that the Broncos' days as the top dog of BCS busters are over.
But as Lee Corso might say ... not so fast, my friend!
Already with two losses this season, Boise State certainly seems to be rebuilding after seven straight seasons with at least 11 wins. In fact, since the BCS adopted the current format to add a BCS bowl in 2006, the Broncos have been in contention for a BCS berth every single year:
Friday, September 12, 2008
Preseason Over; Game On
College football does have a preseason, for better or for worse. Over the years, most of the elite teams have learned not to front-load their schedules so that their entire season could be destroyed in the first week. Teams with national championship aspirations nowadays typically warm up with a cupcake or two before going for the main course.
Well, the 2008 preseason is over.
The USC-Ohio State showdown Saturday night has already been billed as the biggest game of this regular season. But the truth is that it's merely the main event of a loaded card that includes several games that will make a lasting impact on this season's BCS races - whether it's for the national championship or a spot in the other four lucrative bowl games. Some teams will move up, a few will hold their ground and certainly, a couple will crash out.
These, in order of magnitude, constitute this Saturday's must-see TV: (Unofficial BCS rankings denoted)
No. 5 Ohio State at No. 1 USC (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET) - Two weeks ago, this game had a chance of being a 1-vs.-2 matchup. On the eve of the contest, it's looking more and more like a potential Trojans blowout. While top-ranked USC was impressive in throttling Virginia in its opener and had a week to get ready for the game, Ohio State lost its hold on No. 2 with a lackluster home win over Ohio, and now it appears that it's also lost running back Beanie Wells.
History isn't really on the Buckeyes' side - and neither are the gamblers, who have seen fit to move the spread into double-digit territory in favor of USC. In the Jim Tressel era, they have only ventured outside of Columbus twice to play a formidable non-conference foe. Ohio State lost to UCLA in 2002 and beat a post-Vince Young Texas team in 2006. USC, meanwhile, lost just once in the Coliseum to a non-conference opponent in the Pete Carroll era - on Sept. 8, 2001, a 10-6 loss to Kansas State in Carroll's second game as USC coach.
No. 10 Wisconsin at No. 23 Fresno State (Saturday, 10:30 p.m.) - Pat Hill calls this the biggest home game in Fresno State history. He gets no argument here, or anywhere. Win, the Bulldogs instantly become a serious BCS bowl contender. Lose, Fresno State goes back to being a baseball school again.
Well, the 2008 preseason is over.
The USC-Ohio State showdown Saturday night has already been billed as the biggest game of this regular season. But the truth is that it's merely the main event of a loaded card that includes several games that will make a lasting impact on this season's BCS races - whether it's for the national championship or a spot in the other four lucrative bowl games. Some teams will move up, a few will hold their ground and certainly, a couple will crash out.
These, in order of magnitude, constitute this Saturday's must-see TV: (Unofficial BCS rankings denoted)
No. 5 Ohio State at No. 1 USC (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET) - Two weeks ago, this game had a chance of being a 1-vs.-2 matchup. On the eve of the contest, it's looking more and more like a potential Trojans blowout. While top-ranked USC was impressive in throttling Virginia in its opener and had a week to get ready for the game, Ohio State lost its hold on No. 2 with a lackluster home win over Ohio, and now it appears that it's also lost running back Beanie Wells.
History isn't really on the Buckeyes' side - and neither are the gamblers, who have seen fit to move the spread into double-digit territory in favor of USC. In the Jim Tressel era, they have only ventured outside of Columbus twice to play a formidable non-conference foe. Ohio State lost to UCLA in 2002 and beat a post-Vince Young Texas team in 2006. USC, meanwhile, lost just once in the Coliseum to a non-conference opponent in the Pete Carroll era - on Sept. 8, 2001, a 10-6 loss to Kansas State in Carroll's second game as USC coach.
No. 10 Wisconsin at No. 23 Fresno State (Saturday, 10:30 p.m.) - Pat Hill calls this the biggest home game in Fresno State history. He gets no argument here, or anywhere. Win, the Bulldogs instantly become a serious BCS bowl contender. Lose, Fresno State goes back to being a baseball school again.
Kudos to Wisconsin for even scheduling this game in Fresno. The Badgers will get a return home game in 2009, but the business at hand could be quite daunting. These two teams actually met twice in the early 2000s, splitting a pair in Madison. This time, the Badgers will have to find a way to get it done away from Camp Randall.
No. 11 Kansas at No. 19 South Florida (Friday, 8 p.m.) - Much is riding on the game for the woebegone Big East. A loss by the Bulls it could be requiem for the conference, its legitimacy obliterated. South Florida is also fighting for its own legitimacy, after a free-fall that followed the team's ascension to No. 2 in the BCS standings a year ago.
The Jayhawks, having won 14 of their last 15 games, have designs on making a basketball-football double in 2008. But there's no need to do too much looking ahead. Kansas last played a BCS conference foe on the road in 2004 - and it lost to Northwestern, 20-17. That's the kind of history the Jayhawks want to leave behind.
No. 29 UCLA at No. 17 BYU (Saturday, 3:30 p.m.) - If familiarity breeds contempt, then these two teams should be at each other's throats from the coin flip, meeting for the third time in 372 days. The Bruins won at the Rose Bowl during the 2007 regular season but lost in the Las Vegas Bowl when a last-second field goal attempt was blocked.
The UCLA teams of the Karl Dorrell era were noted for their inability to stand prosperity. Rick Neuheisel will be seeking to reverse that, coming off a huge opener win over Tennessee. BYU, with an eye on a BCS bowl berth, escaped with a win over Washington on a controversial penalty at the end of the game. The Cougars will need a little more than luck against the Bruins.
No. 34 Michigan at No. 45 Notre Dame (Saturday, 3:30 p.m.) - OK, when you're done laughing, you need to read the rest of this. The Irish could make it to a BCS bowl, it's no joke. Notre Dame has an extremely favorable schedule this season, with only probably one game it has no chance of winning - the season finale at USC.
If the Irish win nine games and are ranked in the top 14 of the final BCS standings, they most likely will earn a BCS bowl berth. Beat Michigan, then that path will be wide open for Notre Dame. After losing the last two meetings by a combined score of 85-21, the Irish shouldn't need much motivation, especially against the undermanned and offensively-challenged Wolverines.
Saturday, September 6, 2008
Beware of the Pirates
It's only the second weekend of the season and the BCS bowl jockeying has already started. Such is the beauty (and the beauty pageant nature) of college football.
Shortly after East Carolina's resounding 24-3 triumph over West Virginia - its second victory over a BCS conference team in as many weeks - I received a nervous e-mail from a good friend asking if he should be worried about those men in purple. You see, he roots for a BCS conference team and a potential BCS buster like the Pirates just might ruin his plans by stealing a possible at-large BCS bid.
My response?
Be afraid. Be very afraid.
East Carolina is the team to watch for this year's BCS buster race. In 2006, we had Boise State. Last year, it was Hawaii. Before the start of this season, the chic pick was Fresno State. And the Bulldogs certainly were quite persuasive in a 24-7 opening week win at Rutgers.
But Fresno State, No. 24 in the unofficial BCS standings, has a pretty ambitious - and therefore tough - schedule ahead of it. The Dawgs host Wisconsin next week and has a trip to the Rose Bowl against a rejuvenated UCLA team on Sept. 27. And the WAC schedule is best not to be overlooked as well, not when Fresno finishes the season with a date on the blue turf against Boise State.
A couple of Mountain West teams also have aspirations to be a BCS buster. Utah, with a conquest in the Big House already in the bag, should be the odds-on favorite to win the conference. Then there's the Utes' sworn enemy Brigham Young, which narrowly escaped Washington with a win on Saturday. The Cougars still need to get by UCLA next week and they finish the season with a pair of daunting road games at Air Force and archrival Utah.
But of all the non-BCS teams vying for a big BCS payday, no one would possess a better resume than East Carolina should it win out. The Pirates have already beaten (then-No. 17) Virginia Tech and No. 8 West Virginia. Their four non-conference games are all against BCS conference opponents (North Carolina State and Virginia still remain). If ECU runs the table, it would finish the regular season with a 13-0 record and 4-0 against teams in the Big East and ACC (with two probable conference champions). That would be good enough to lock up a BCS berth.
In fact, East Carolina's toughest remaining contest might be the Conference USA championship game, against perhaps either Rice or Tulsa. Whether the Pirates can handle that kind of pressure just might decide the BCS bowl pecking order, because the burden of having to win one last game to earn a BCS bid has proved to be enormous.
An astounding eight times (out of 23 opportunities), a higher ranked team, needing only a win to clinch either a BCS title game berth or a BCS bowl bid, lost to an underdog in the conference championship game in the BCS Era (1998-2007). Add three other choke jobs (UCLA in 1998, USC in 2006 and West Virginia in 2007) - when a team lost its final regular-season game to blow a shot at the BCS title game - the pressure of the "last big game" has manifested itself time and again.
And who better than East Carolina coach Skip Holtz should understand that? He was a 29-year-old offensive coordinator (under his father Lou) for Notre Dame in 1993 when the No. 1-ranked Irish needed only a home win over Boston College to secure a shot at the national championship. Instead, the Holtzs watched Tom Coughlin's Eagles pull out a 41-39 upset on David Gordon's 41-yard field goal as time expired.
Notre Dame has not recovered from that loss. Neither has Lou Holtz. Skip Holtz might remember that a bit more vividly later in the season should the Pirates continue their run at a BCS bid.
But we're only two weeks into the season. Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves.
(For you Notre Dame fans - and haters - here's a trip down memory lane)
Shortly after East Carolina's resounding 24-3 triumph over West Virginia - its second victory over a BCS conference team in as many weeks - I received a nervous e-mail from a good friend asking if he should be worried about those men in purple. You see, he roots for a BCS conference team and a potential BCS buster like the Pirates just might ruin his plans by stealing a possible at-large BCS bid.
My response?
Be afraid. Be very afraid.
East Carolina is the team to watch for this year's BCS buster race. In 2006, we had Boise State. Last year, it was Hawaii. Before the start of this season, the chic pick was Fresno State. And the Bulldogs certainly were quite persuasive in a 24-7 opening week win at Rutgers.
But Fresno State, No. 24 in the unofficial BCS standings, has a pretty ambitious - and therefore tough - schedule ahead of it. The Dawgs host Wisconsin next week and has a trip to the Rose Bowl against a rejuvenated UCLA team on Sept. 27. And the WAC schedule is best not to be overlooked as well, not when Fresno finishes the season with a date on the blue turf against Boise State.
A couple of Mountain West teams also have aspirations to be a BCS buster. Utah, with a conquest in the Big House already in the bag, should be the odds-on favorite to win the conference. Then there's the Utes' sworn enemy Brigham Young, which narrowly escaped Washington with a win on Saturday. The Cougars still need to get by UCLA next week and they finish the season with a pair of daunting road games at Air Force and archrival Utah.
But of all the non-BCS teams vying for a big BCS payday, no one would possess a better resume than East Carolina should it win out. The Pirates have already beaten (then-No. 17) Virginia Tech and No. 8 West Virginia. Their four non-conference games are all against BCS conference opponents (North Carolina State and Virginia still remain). If ECU runs the table, it would finish the regular season with a 13-0 record and 4-0 against teams in the Big East and ACC (with two probable conference champions). That would be good enough to lock up a BCS berth.
In fact, East Carolina's toughest remaining contest might be the Conference USA championship game, against perhaps either Rice or Tulsa. Whether the Pirates can handle that kind of pressure just might decide the BCS bowl pecking order, because the burden of having to win one last game to earn a BCS bid has proved to be enormous.
An astounding eight times (out of 23 opportunities), a higher ranked team, needing only a win to clinch either a BCS title game berth or a BCS bowl bid, lost to an underdog in the conference championship game in the BCS Era (1998-2007). Add three other choke jobs (UCLA in 1998, USC in 2006 and West Virginia in 2007) - when a team lost its final regular-season game to blow a shot at the BCS title game - the pressure of the "last big game" has manifested itself time and again.
And who better than East Carolina coach Skip Holtz should understand that? He was a 29-year-old offensive coordinator (under his father Lou) for Notre Dame in 1993 when the No. 1-ranked Irish needed only a home win over Boston College to secure a shot at the national championship. Instead, the Holtzs watched Tom Coughlin's Eagles pull out a 41-39 upset on David Gordon's 41-yard field goal as time expired.
Notre Dame has not recovered from that loss. Neither has Lou Holtz. Skip Holtz might remember that a bit more vividly later in the season should the Pirates continue their run at a BCS bid.
But we're only two weeks into the season. Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves.
(For you Notre Dame fans - and haters - here's a trip down memory lane)
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