BCS Review Series: 1998, The New Beginning

Part 1 of a series: Beginning this week, I will review each of the 16 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. I will examine the results from these seasons—who got lucky and who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear throughout December and January.

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On the precipice of a disaster in its infancy, the BCS was magically rescued by the hurricanes—one named Georges, the other named Edgerrin James.

Three teams headed into the final Saturday of the season with undefeated records: Tennessee, Kansas State and UCLA. The Vols and Wildcats were scheduled to play in their respective conference title games at night; while the Bruins, riding a nation-best 20-game winning streak, were to play Miami at the Orange Bowl in a makeup game earlier in the afternoon.

Originally, the game was to be played on Sept. 26. But because of the imminent threat of Hurricane Georges, it was temporarily postponed. UCLA had the option of canceling the game outright and standing on its performance in 10 games, but it took the risky move of rescheduling the game for the final day of the season.

The Miami team that beat UCLA, 49-45, that day was a vast improvement over the one the Bruins would've faced on Sept. 26. Behind James' 299 rushing yards (on 39 carries), the 'Canes shredded a shaky UCLA defense and benefited from an erroneous fumble call. Besides ending UCLA's quest to appear in the first BCS title game, Miami's upset victory began the Bruins' long descent into national irrelevance.

After UCLA's loss, it was up to Tennessee and Kansas State to hold up their end of the bargain. The Volunteers did, but the Wildcats didn't—losing to double-digit underdog Texas A&M in double overtime, 36-33. As a parting gift, K-State was handed an Alamo Bowl berth after being shut out of the BCS bowls.

While the Tennessee-Florida State title game—played in the Fiesta Bowl—was generally acknowledged as a fair outcome, there were a few minor controversies in the year of BCS's birth. Besides the snubbing of K-State, an 11-0 Tulane team was also shut out of the BCS. But thanks to the hurricanes, a catastrophe was averted.


Complete Final BCS Standings

Rank	Team	Poll Avg	Computer	SoS	Loss	BCS
1	Tennessee	1.0	1.67	20	0	3.47
2	Florida State	2.0	1.75	4	1	4.91
3	Kansas State	4.0	3.00	49	1	9.96
4	Ohio State	3.0	5.25	28	1	10.37
5	UCLA	5.5	4.08	8	1	10.90

Alternative methods

Using post-2003 BCS formula: 1. Tennessee, 2. Florida State.

Likely four-team playoff: Tennessee vs. UCLA; Florida State vs. Ohio State.

With Kansas State failing to win its conference and having the weakest strength of schedule among the five contending teams, this would be a fairly easy choice.


Controversies

Kansas State snub: Despite finishing third in the final BCS standings, the Wildcats found themselves in the non-BCS Alamo Bowl. The Sugar Bowl opted for Big Ten co-champion Ohio State, which was the top-ranked team for most of the season until a 28-24 upset loss to Michigan State. The Orange Bowl took Steve Spurrier's Florida Gators, who finished eighth in the BCS standings. A dispirited and disinterested K-State team lost to Purdue, 37-34.

Tulane snub: An 11-0 record and Conference USA title weren't enough to get the Green Wave to a BCS bowl game, let alone a spot in the title game. Tulane, ranked No. 10, would've received an automatic berth by finishing in the Top 12 in today's current format. Nevertheless, playing without a head coach after Tommy Bowden left to take the Clemson job, the Green Wave routed BYU, 41-27, in the Liberty Bowl under some guy named Rich Rodriguez.

1998 BCS Bowl Matchups

Game	Score	Attendance	TV Rating
Fiesta Bowl*	#1 Tennessee 23, #2 Florida St. 16	80,470	17.2
Rose Bowl	#9 Wisconsin 38, #5 UCLA 31	93,872	13.3
Sugar Bowl	#4 Ohio St. 24, #6 Texas A&M 14	76,503	11.5
Orange Bowl	#8 Florida 31, #15 Syracuse 10	67,919	8.4

BCS formula review: The initial BCS standings, the brainchild of then-SEC commissioner Roy Kramer, was an unwieldy, unholy trinity—human polls, computer rankings and strength of schedule. Each loss was tacked on as an additional penalty. Only three computers were used—Anderson & Hester, Jeff Sagarin and The New York Times. Margin of victory was used by all three computers and a 50 percent adjusted maximum deviation factor was applied.

Final analysis: UCLA's loss gave the BCS founding fathers a huge sigh of relief. Tennessee's 23-16 victory over Florida State in the Fiesta Bowl, though underwhelming, was controversy-free. The BCS seemingly passed its first test, but the fun was only beginning.

FCS Uprising ... What Does It Mean?

Maybe they're not the body-baggers anymore. Maybe they're zombies who are bent on taking over the college football world.

"Body bag games," a phrase coined by the late Cal State Fullerton coach Gene Murphy to describe the big-dollar staged slaughters of college football also-rans, became horror shows for more than a handful of FBS powers in the 2013 opening weekend. It began with Towson's thrashing of Connecticut on Thursday and culminated with the sacking of San Diego State by Eastern Illinois on Saturday night.

In all, eight FBS teams lost to FCS opponents: Georgia State (Samford), Iowa State (Northern Iowa), Kansas State (North Dakota State), No. 25 Oregon State (Eastern Washington), San Diego State (Eastern Illinois), South Alabama (Southern Utah), UConn (Towson), and USF (McNeese State). That's a new record for a single weekend.

So the visitors not only collected a handsome check just for showing up, they also delighted in the ritual humiliation of their hosts in front of disgusted fans. This included two-time defending FCS champion North Dakota State's takedown of Kansas State on Friday, when the defending Big 12 co-champions unveiled their newly renovated stadium.

But the biggest upset of the weekend belonged to Eastern Washington. Though the Eagles were no slouch - having won the FCS title in 2010, they became just the fourth lower-division team to beat a ranked FBS (or I-A) opponent since Division I split up in 1978. While EWU's 49-46 win over No. 25 Oregon State isn't quite on the scale of Appalachian State's epic shocker over No. 5 Michigan at the Big House in 2007, it did help to illuminate the FCS conundrum facing big-time football programs.

(FULL ARTICLE @ SB NATION)

You Can't Spell BCS Without SEC

This is why when the going gets tough, the tough schedules Western Carolina (or Georgia Southern, or Jacksonville State, or Wofford, or Sam Houston State).

The only conference that has the BCS figured out is going to be in the championship game for a seventh consecutive year - and possibly an all-SEC final for a second straight season. After Saturday night's unthinkable evisceration of the previous top two teams in the BCS standings, that's the only near-sure thing we have.

An SEC team will face Notre Dame in the BCS championship game in Miami on Jan. 7, if the Irish can get by a likely Matt Barkley-less (but a full Monte-Lane) USC team. If Notre Dame chokes at the L.A. Coliseum, then a number of scenarios may still emerge, and all of which will still involve at least one SEC team in the title game.

By way of its genius scheduling, the SEC's heavyweights all had virtual bye weeks on Saturday (South Carolina's workout was a bit more strenuous than desired, but still) while the Pac-12 and Big 12 engaged in ritual suicides with their national championship quests.

The biggest losers Saturday are undoubtedly Oregon and Kansas State, who not only lost their respective grip on a spot in the national championship game, but might even be shut out of a BCS bowl all together. The Ducks won't win their division if Stanford beats UCLA next week to set up a rematch with the Bruins in the Pac-12 title game. The Wildcats, meanwhile, would be usurped as the Big 12 champion if they lose to Texas next week while Oklahoma defeats Oklahoma State.

The obvious beneficiary of Saturday's upsets is of course Notre Dame, but it needed only one of the teams in front of it to lose. The real winner is the SEC, which now has the following (and multiple) paths to the BCS championship game:

* If Alabama beats Auburn and Georgia beats Georgia Tech, the winner of the SEC title game will face Notre Dame in the BCS title game (if the Irish defeat USC).

* If Notre Dame is upset by USC, then the SEC champ likely would face Florida in the BCS title game, if the Gators get by Florida State in their season finale. It could be Cocktail Party II, just 400 miles south.

* If Notre Dame and Florida both lose next week, then either Oregon or Kansas State might sneak back into the title game to face the SEC champion.

* About the only realistic scenario where the SEC might be shut out of the BCS title game is this: Notre Dame defeats USC, Georgia loses to Georgia Tech but beats Alabama in the SEC title game and Florida loses to Florida State. If all those hypotheticals occur, then it'll be Notre Dame against either Kansas State or Oregon.

* And the odd team out is still Florida State (and Clemson). Even with a win over Florida next week, the Seminoles are unlikely to earn a shot at the BCS championship game, thanks to their terrible computer rankings and the overall weakness of the ACC. FSU likely will face 6-6 Georgia Tech or 7-5 Miami (if it chooses not to self-impose a ban) in the ACC title game.


Projected BCS Standings:

1. Notre Dame, 2. Alabama, 3. Georgia, 4. Florida, 5. Kansas State, 6. Oregon, 7. LSU, 8. Florida State, 9. Texas A&M, 10. Stanford, 11. South Carolina, 12. Clemson, 13. Oklahoma, 14. Nebraska, 15. Texas.

How Is Mike Slive Going to Fix This Mess?

Johnny Manziel and Kevin Sumlin ought to remember that when somebody is nice enough to invite you to their party, you shouldn't go to their house breaking all the crystals and throwing furniture into the pool.

That, essentially is what Texas A&M just did to Alabama in particular and the SEC in general. The Aggies' upset victory at Bryant-Denny Stadium put their new conference perilously close to missing out on the BCS title game for the first time in seven years.

In tomorrow's BCS standings, there will not be an SEC team occupying either the No. 1 or No. 2 position - the first time that's the case since the initial standings of the 2010 season, when Auburn was fourth, trailing Oklahoma, Oregon and Boise State. Of course, the Tigers did go on and beat the Ducks for the BCS title that season.

The SEC might not make it back this season, as all of its members have at least one loss, whereas there are still three undefeated teams from other conferences (not counting bowl-ineligible Ohio State).
Alabama's loss means now it needs help - and maybe a lot - to get back into the BCS title picture. If Kansas State and Oregon win their combined remaining five games, then the SEC is out.
Then there's the matter of Notre Dame.

The Fighting Irish are decidedly the third wheel at the moment and there does not appear to be a path for them to get to the BCS title game absent a loss by either Oregon or Kansas State. For now, though, they'll hang on as a solid No. 3, in front of a sextet of SEC teams.

Projected BCS standings:

1. Kansas State, 2. Oregon, 3. Notre Dame, 4. Alabama, 5. Georgia, 6. Florida, 7. LSU, 8. South Carolina, 9. Texas A&M, 10. Florida State, 11. Clemson, 12. Oklahoma, 13. Stanford, 14. Nebraska, 15. Texas.

(FULL ARTICLE @ SB NATION)

A Costly Victory for Notre Dame

OK, who wants a piece of Alabama in the BCS title game?

With their Houdini-like escape against an LSU team that outplayed them for nearly 59 minutes, the Crimson Tide emerged from their toughest game of the year more solidified than ever as the top-ranked team. Had Alabama lost, the SEC would've been facing the prospect of not having a team in the BCS title game for the first time in seven years.

Alas, the SEC doesn't kill its best team off. Not usually anyway.

Other than LSU's triple-overtime loss to Arkansas in 2007, the "right" teams always pulled out victories in the season's closing weeks, no matter how perilous the circumstances. And even those '07 Tigers somehow got a reprieve and wound up winning the BCS national championship.

Alabama appears certain to continue that trend. Now that its toughest game is out of the way, it has just a mild challenge from Texas A&M next week, then a scrimmage and a bye (Western Carolina and Auburn, take your pick on which is which), before the SEC championship game. And even there the Tide get a break as they'll end up with Georgia instead of a potentially more troublesome Florida team as title-game fodder.

So, who's Alabama going to face in the BCS title game?

It looks to be a two-team race now, between Oregon and Kansas State. The Ducks won a track meet against USC in their highest profile game of the season, though the outcome of the game was never seriously in doubt because the Trojans could never stop Oregon's offense. Oregon will continue to occupy the No. 2 spot in the polls, and will likely gain vote shares in both at the expense of Notre Dame.

Kansas State will still hold down the No. 2 spot in the BCS standings, despite ranking third in both polls, because of its superior computer rankings. The question is now whether the Wildcats can hold off the Oregon surge in both the polls and the computers.

The biggest loser on Saturday is unquestionably Notre Dame, which won a thriller against Pitt in triple overtime. It was a costly victory for the Irish, who certainly will lose vote shares in both polls and will slide in the computer rankings after beating a team that lost to FCS Youngstown State. Even with a convincing victory, Notre Dame was going to cede the No. 3 spot to Oregon this week, and now it will be a distant fourth.

The Irish will have to resign themselves to either the Rose Bowl or the Fiesta Bowl unless both Oregon and Kansas State lose a game the rest of the season. There is simply no path for Notre Dame to get into the top 2 spots in the BCS standings if all four teams stay undefeated. It will not make up ground in any meaningful way in the polls, and its computer strength will erode a bit with games against Boston College (2-7) and Wake Forest (5-4) coming up.

Projected BCS standings:

1. Alabama, 2. Kansas State, 3. Oregon, 4. Notre Dame, 5. Georgia, 6. Florida, 7. Florida State, 8. LSU, 9. Louisville, 10. South Carolina, 11. Oregon State, 12. Oklahoma, 13. Clemson, 14. Stanford, 15. Texas A&M.

Odds Are: It'll Be 'Bama vs. K-State

Nov. 6 will not be the only election day in America this fall.

The night of Dec. 1 will be the other one, with millions on pins and needles, not to check on election returns but BCS projections on which two teams will emerge to play in the national championship game. Only on this occasion, most everyone is helpless in determining the outcome other than the 174 voters in the coaches and Harris polls.

But the spinning and bloviating will come fast and furious over the next five weeks, perhaps rivaling our heated presidential and congressional elections. Media relations and PR types from various schools will try to make a case on why their program truly deserves a coveted spot in the BCS title game. They'll tell you why some scores are deceiving, some stats are meaningless and that you should never, ever believe your own lyin' eyes.

Make no mistake, Oregon, Kansas State and Notre Dame - and to a lesser degree Alabama - will all try to spin things their way. And now believe this - all the appeals and posturing will have an impact.

For now, though, it's the teams ranked Nos. 2-4 in the latest BCS standings that need to do all the talking, on and off the field. While we provided a forecast on these teams' chances of going undefeated in our projections Sunday morning, now it's time to assess the likelihood of their landing in the BCS title game should each of these teams go undefeated:

Alabama: For the Tide, it's simple - win and in. They do not require any type of scoreboard watching and sweating of their poll or computer rankings. Alabama is the unanimous choice for No. 1 in the coaches poll and nearly so in the Harris poll. On that basis alone the Tide will comfortably slide back into their second consecutive BCS title game, as long as they win. (Probability of reaching title game by going undefeated: 100%)

Kansas State: The Wildcats are tied with Notre Dame atop the computer rankings and have made up considerable ground on Oregon in both polls. K-State will benefit from playing potentially two more ranked teams this season (Oklahoma State and Texas) and the absence of a Big 12 title game probably won't hurt too much. Ideally, the Wildcats will want the Irish to also finish undefeated, thus providing a buffer in the computer ratings to hold off Oregon. (75%)

Oregon: While the Ducks are still No. 2 in both polls, they have lost vote shares every week since the Harris poll first came out on Oct. 7. They can maybe recover some of vote hemorrhaging in the coming weeks as they get into the meat of their schedule, but the problem is the games that once looked daunting are much less so now, after USC's latest implosion and Oregon State's first loss of the season on Saturday. The Ducks' games against USC, Stanford and Oregon State will not be showdowns against top 10 teams anymore and the Pac-12 title game now may very well feature an unranked Arizona, Arizona State or UCLA team. While there's little doubt that Oregon's computer rankings will improve, it's no sure thing that they'll crack the top 2 if all the other teams remain unbeaten. (50%)

Notre Dame: As much brand power as the Irish wield, the simple math right now stand in the way of their first national championship in nearly a quarter century. While Notre Dame gained some support in the polls after an emphatic win at Oklahoma, its computer rankings are now topped out. The Irish are unlikely to impress the voters no matter how much they win their next three games by and their season finale against USC now has lost much of its allure as the Trojans may have four or five losses by that point. (25%)

As we're five weeks out from an unreal ending of the 2012 regular season, it's increasingly likely that we'll have an Alabama-Kansas State BCS championship game. Because of their strength in the computers and an imposing resume, the Wildcats just might become the first team to make to the BCS title game without finishing first or second in the polls since the formula was revised in 2004. That would be a bitter pill for Oregon as it was K-State that ostensibly backed out of a home-and-home with the Ducks that would've taken place this year, in Eugene.

(FULL ARTICLE @ SB NATION)

We Might Need a Playoff ... Now

Playoffs? You kiddin' me? Playoffs?

Well, that "playoff" the college football poobahs are bringing along will be here about two years too late. There's a pretty good chance that four teams from BCS conferences (and that includes Notre Dame) will finish the regular season undefeated.

How good of a chance? Let's put it this way: Of the 18 remaining games that Alabama, Oregon, Kansas State and Notre Dame have yet to play, in only four where these teams won't be favored by double digits, and only one, where one of those teams might even be an underdog.

That's why the beauty pageant is really going to start in earnest.

For only the third time in BCS history but the second time in four years, there might be at least three undefeated BCS conference winners. In 2004, Auburn was shut out by USC and Oklahoma. In 2009, Alabama and Texas got in, but Cincinnati didn't. So this time, who's going to be left out?

There are six unbeaten teams left in FBS, and interestingly, they represent each of the six BCS conferences, with Notre Dame standing in for its future non-football home of ACC. Ohio State is ineligible to win the Big Ten but remains in the running to win the AP national title (that's a topic for another day), but the other five teams all still have aspirations for the two spots in the BCS title game.

Projected BCS standings:

1. Alabama, 2. Kansas State, 3. Notre Dame, 4. Oregon, 5. Georgia, 6. Florida, 7. LSU, 8. Oklahoma, 9. South Carolina, 10. Louisville, 11. Florida State, 12. Stanford, 13. Oregon State, 14. Clemson, 15. Mississippi State.

SEC Champ Is Not Such a Sure Thing

Now that we have Oregon fans going all apoplectic after correctly forecasting the Ducks would fall another spot to No. 4 in the latest BCS standings, it's perfectly sensible to get somebody else all riled up.

Take a deep breath and here goes: A one-loss SEC champ is no sure thing to play in the BCS title game.

That's right. As unfathomable as this sounds, the SEC does not yet have a mortal lock to play in Miami on Jan. 7 even after winning the last six BCS championships. If the conference does not produce an undefeated champion, it's possible that the SEC would be watching someone else winning the 2012 national title.

There are three undefeated SEC teams now, and that number will dwindle to two next week after Alabama plays Mississippi State. The top-ranked Crimson Tide certainly seem invincible at the moment, but let's look at a couple of hypotheticals:

If Alabama loses at LSU in two weeks, and then LSU defeats an unbeaten Florida in the SEC title game, It's possible that all three teams would be shut out. Or if Georgia beats Florida to win the SEC East and then upsets undefeated Alabama in the SEC title game, it's also possible that neither gets to play in the BCS title game.

Neither of the above are implausible, and other scenarios that would produce a one-loss SEC champion certainly also exist. If two of the teams among Kansas State, Oregon and Notre Dame - and especially all three - finish the season undefeated, it's actually difficult to see how a one-loss team would crash the BCS title game party, even if it's one from the SEC.

(FULL ARTICLE @ SB NATION)

The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 8)

The Guru's BlogPoll ballot, with notes below:

BCS Guru Ballot - Week 8

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Alabama Crimson Tide	--
2	Oregon Ducks	--
3	Kansas St. Wildcats	--
4	Florida Gators	--
5	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	--
6	Oregon St. Beavers	--
7	Oklahoma Sooners	--
8	LSU Tigers	--
9	USC Trojans	1
10	Mississippi St. Bulldogs	1
11	Texas Tech Red Raiders	3
12	Florida St. Seminoles	4
13	Ohio St. Buckeyes	-1
14	Clemson Tigers	4
15	Georgia Bulldogs	--
16	Michigan Wolverines	3
17	Texas A&M Aggies	-4
18	South Carolina Gamecocks	-9
19	Stanford Cardinal	1
20	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	2
21	Boise St. Broncos	--
22	Ohio Bobcats	3
23	Rutgers Scarlet Knights	New
24	Louisville Cardinals	New
25	Tulsa Golden Hurricane	New
Dropouts: West Virginia Mountaineers, TCU Horned Frogs, Nevada Wolf Pack

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings

* There isn't a lot of movement on my ballot this week because there's just not that much happening. K-State beat the living crap out of an overrated West Virginia team. Florida trouncing South Carolina at home - the margin was a mild surprise but the outcome was not. Oregon blasted Arizona State, as expected, even if the Ducks pretty much took the second half off after taking a 43-7 halftime lead.

* Yet, Oregon lost a lot of ground in the only two polls that matter in the BCS standings - and the two polls that has the most number of clueless voters. Case-in-point, Nevada, despite losing at home in OT to San Diego State, gained two more votes in the Harris Poll. Come again?

* I'm reluctantly adding both of the undefeated Big East teams in this week's ballot, meaning now all 11 remaining unbeaten teams are ranked. Even if they played against unimpressive competition, the fact that Rutgers and Louisville still have yet to lose will have to count for something.

* Conference-by-conference tally: SEC (7), Pac-12 (4), Big 12 (3), Big Ten (2), ACC (2), Big East (2), C-USA (1), MWC (1), MAC (1), WAC (1), Independent (1).

Ducks Keep Winning and Keep Slipping

Should Oregon start to worry?

Another week. Another commanding victory. Another solid No. 2 ranking in the two BCS-relevant polls. Yet, the Ducks might find themselves falling another spot in the BCS standings, slipping behind Kansas State to No. 4.

There is no question that the SEC will again occupy the top two spots in the standings when they're released Sunday at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, after Alabama eased past Tennessee and Florida impressively trounced South Carolina. But Oregon, despite destroying a decent Arizona State team on Thursday, might slip down from its No. 3 slot in last week's BCS standings.

Kansas State will probably gain enough cushion in the computers after blasting West Virginia to edge the Ducks this week. And at least for the short term, Oregon will not be able to do much to untangle from this predicament as it will host Pac-12 patsy Colorado next week.

But what about in the long term? Will a 13-0 Oregon team fail to make it to the BCS championship game?

The possibility certainly exists, and it's not even all that improbable. Kansas State is in the driver's seat to win the Big 12, and its chances of winning it without a loss are improving each week. The Wildcats have already beaten both Oklahoma and West Virginia and play three of their final five games at home. Their two road games are against a team without its top quarterback (TCU) and another without a defense (Baylor). K-State also doesn't have to deal with a conference championship game that serves as an additional roadblock.

And then there's the matter of Notre Dame, whose season basically comes down to two games - next week at Oklahoma and the final regular-season game at USC. Should K-State slip up in the final five games of the season, the Irish will swoop in to grab the poll points to close the gap on Oregon. With its superior computer rankings, Notre Dame also might sneak past the Ducks when other unbeatens stumble.

The projected BCS standings top 15:

1. Alabama, 2. Florida, 3. Kansas State, 4. Oregon, 5. Notre Dame, 6. LSU, 7, Oregon State, 8. Oklahoma, 9. USC, 10. Georgia, 11. Mississippi State, 12. South Carolina, 13. Florida State, 14. Rutgers, 15. Texas Tech.

(FULL ARTICLE @ SB NATION)

The Lazarus-Like Resurrection of Big 12

About two years ago, the Big 12 was on its death bed.

The conference was on the operating table, waiting for a priest to read its last rites and a coroner to dissect its cause of death. Gored by a a Longhorn, maybe. Excessive bleeding of (Big) Red blood cells, another possibility.

But look at the Big 12 now. It's not only alive and well, it's the "it" conference, the talk of the college football world. More than half of its teams (six) are ranked in the top 20 of the latest simulated BCS standings. Its two new acquisitions are a combined 8-0 and one of them boasts the undisputed frontrunner for this year's Heisman Trophy.

If it weren't for an inexplicably late collapse by Oklahoma State, the Big 12 would've had a representative in last year's BCS title game. This year, five teams are currently unbeaten as the conference season gets under way to decide who'll be left standing and possibly finally sending someone to challenge Alabama.

To be sure, it will be a daunting task for whomever emerges as the Big 12 champion. For one, the Big 12 is now the only AQ conference to play a true round-robin schedule with nine conference games. There will be at most one undefeated team but more likely, none. And for another, because the misnomered Big 12 has only 10 teams and no conference championship game, a one-loss conference champion is unlikely to get a reprieve, as it was shown last year with the Cowboys.

Of the five unbeaten Big 12 teams - plus Oklahoma, which already lost to Kansas State - the team with the best potential to get to the national championship game is West Virginia, with Heisman favorite Geno Smith having just completed an otherworldly performance.

(FULL ARTICLE @ SB NATION)

Bowling Alone ... With 67 Others

America may be suffering a decline in social capital because everybody is busy texting and tweeting instead of going out and bonding with real people. Robert Putnam was simply ahead of his time.

But that's not a problem in college football. Unless your team really, really sucked, everybody gets to bowl, even if it costs your school money for the privilege.

Once again, we have 34 bowls in this postseason for 68 teams. And on the eve of Thanksgiving, we officially have 69 bowl eligible teams, meaning every bowl slot will be filled, with at least one 6-6 team being sent home despite its excellence perfect mediocrity.

The odd team out could be Notre Dame, either by its own choosing or by being squeezed out of a bowl slot. If the Irish lose to Stanford this weekend - as expected - they may decide to clean house instead of making an appearance at a minor bowl and risking Jimmy Clausen being sucker-punched by one of their irate, drunken alums.

The biggest loser last week was Kansas State, which went from a potential BCS bowl slot to no bowl at all with a single defeat. The Wildcats were playing Nebraska for the Big 12 North title, but their 17-3 loss dropped them to 6-6 overall. And since K-State had two wins over lower division teams, it did not muster the six required victories to be bowl eligible.

Nebraska, meanwhile, becomes one of the 21 teams still under consideration for the 10 BCS bowl slots, according to the BCS press release (in order of the latest BCS rankings):

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. TCU
5. Cincinnati
6. Boise State
7. Georgia Tech
8. Oregon
9. Pittsburgh
10. Ohio State *
11. Iowa
12. Oklahoma State
13. Penn State
14. Virginia Tech
15. LSU
16. Oregon State
17. Miami (Fla.)
18. Clemson
19. BYU
20. USC
26. Nebraska

(* clinched Rose Bowl berth)

Realistically, only teams in the top 13, plus Oregon State, Clemson and Nebraska, which are playing for their respective conference championships, are still in the running. And in truth, the last BCS bowl slot will come down between Oklahoma State and Boise State.

If the Cowboys defeat Oklahoma in Norman this week, they will be picked by the Fiesta Bowl, leaving Boise State in the cold. Should the Sooners prevail, the Broncos' prospects will brighten considerably, with either the Fiesta Bowl or Sugar Bowl a possible destination.

The BCS bowl lineup with an OSU win:

BCS National Championship: Florida/Alabama vs. Texas
Sugar Bowl: Florida/Alabama vs. Cincinnati/Pittsburgh
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. TCU
Orange Bowl: Iowa/Penn State vs. Georgia Tech/Clemson
Rose Bowl: Oregon/Oregon State vs. Ohio State

The BCS bowl lineup with an OSU loss:

BCS National Championship: Florida/Alabama vs. Texas
Sugar Bowl: Florida/Alabama vs. TCU
Fiesta Bowl: Iowa/Penn State vs. Boise State
Orange Bowl: Cincinnati/Pittsburgh vs. Georgia Tech/Clemson
Rose Bowl: Oregon/Oregon State vs. Ohio State

The rest of the bowl list:

BOWL QUALIFIED (31) - teams with at least 7 wins
North Carolina
Boston College
West Virginia
South Florida
Rutgers
Missouri
Texas Tech
Wisconsin
Northwestern
Stanford
California
Arkansas
Ole Miss
Auburn
Kentucky
Utah
Air Force
Nevada
Idaho
Fresno State
Houston
Central Florida
Southern Miss
East Carolina
Navy
Temple
Ohio
Central Michigan
Northern Illinois
Troy
Middle Tennessee State

BOWL ELIGIBLE (17) - Teams with 6 wins
Florida State
Iowa State +
Oklahoma
Texas A&M
Michigan State +
Minnesota +
Notre Dame
UCLA
Arizona
Georgia
South Carolina
Tennessee
Southern Methodist
Marshall
Bowling Green
Louisiana-Monroe
Louisiana-Lafayette

(+ regular season complete)

ON THE BRINK (8)
Connecticut
Kansas
Wyoming
Army
Hawaii
UAB
Kent State
Toledo

^ Duke, at 5-6, will not be bowl eligible after losing to Miami last week. One of the Blue Devils' wins was over North Carolina Central, which is a provisional member of the FCS (I-AA) and therefore does not count.

Ten Years of BCS: 2003

The Guru's Note: Beginning in June, the Guru will publish a review of each of the 10 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. In this series -- Ten Years of BCS -- the Guru will examine the results from these seasons -- who got lucky and who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear weekly leading up to the 2008 season.

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The epic Miami-Ohio State showdown in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl, even with the attendant controversy at the end of the game, gave the BCS a huge sigh of relief. "The system works!" went the battle cry.

No, it doesn't. And it most certainly didn't in the 2003 season, when the BCS was met with catastrophe -- the very scenario that the system was created to avoid: A split national championship.

In its first five years of existence, while there were disagreements and debates about certain teams' merits to be included in the championship game, there had never been a case where the BCS champion was deemed unworthy, or not been crowned by the Associated Press, which maintained its independence.

But in 2003, it all happened. Going into the final weekend of the season, three teams were vying for two spots in the Sugar Bowl. USC had one loss -- at Cal in triple overtime, 34-31. As did LSU -- to Florida at home, 19-7. No. 1 Oklahoma was undefeated going into the Big XII title game against Kansas State.

Even before the games were played on that final Saturday, word was that the Sooners would stay No. 1, even if they lost the game. (Keep in mind that the Guru wasn't in business back then, or you'd known that as certainty.) The computers favored Oklahoma by a wide margin, and, since all other teams besides USC and LSU had at least two losses, Oklahoma would not drop to lower than No. 3 in the human polls. Put it together, the Big XII title game was a mere exhibition with very little riding on it.

And the Sooners played like it, getting pasted by Kansas State, 35-7. After LSU beat Georgia in the SEC title game and USC romped past Oregon State, as expected, USC ascended to No. 1 in both polls while LSU moved up to No. 2.

In the penultimate BCS standings, USC had a comfortable lead on LSU (6.90 vs. 8.43). The Trojans were ranked higher in the human polls and computer rankings and also had better strength-of-schedule ratings. The expectation was that USC would play Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl with LSU left to howl.

But then Boise State beat Hawaii.

Say what?

Exactly right, that's what happened. Combined with Syracuse's 38-12 pasting of Notre Dame, the Tigers got enough of a boost to nudge out USC by .16 of a percentage point, getting Oklahoma as their date while the Trojans were left with a Rose Bowl berth against No. 4 Michigan.

A confluence of events made this happen, and pretty much all of it the BCS's fault:

1. Eliminating margin of victory from all computer equations: This completely unnecessary step was taken gradually, out of an irrational fear of teams running up the scores to impress computers. By 2003, all BCS computers had agreed to abide by this restriction, in some cases reluctantly. Because of this, Oklahoma's 4-touchdown debacle was weighed the same as a road loss in triple overtime. Since the BCS wasn't able to legislate how the voters think (yet, anyway), the polls appropriately knocked the Sooners down to No. 3. But the computers overwhelmingly went for Oklahoma.

2. Keeping strength of schedule (SOS) as a component: Strangely, with all the tweaking in the first five years, the BCS never touched this. First of all, it's hardly an objective tool, almost as arbitrary as the human polls. The formula being used was a poor imitation of the RPI (used by the NCAA basketball selection committee) and called for an absurd division of 25 to produce the SOS number. Besides, all computer rankings have formulas for strength of schedule of their own, so at the very least it's redundant. Teams playing a soft schedule would've been punished enough by the computers anyway.

3. If you can't beat them ... tank them: Notre Dame was routed by the Trojans, 45-14, in South Bend, so the Irish returned the favor ... by getting blown out at Syracuse on the final Saturday of the season. Notre Dame's loss dealt USC's SOS rating a fatal blow. That, combined with Boise State's 45-28 win over Hawaii, another team beaten by USC earlier in the year, catapulted LSU over USC. The Tigers, by beating Georgia for the second time in the season, saw their SOS rating jump from 54th to 29th while USC's held at 37th. LSU beat USC by .30 of a percentage point in the SOS ratings, the difference it needed to seal its hold on the No. 2 spot.

For the record, USC played at Auburn and Notre Dame and played home games against Hawaii and BYU while LSU faced Louisiana-Monroe, Louisiana Tech and I-AA Western Illinois at home and Arizona on the road. Just how LSU's schedule could be considered to be among the top 30 in the country showed the flaw in the SOS ratings.

At the end, USC impressively defeated Michigan, 28-14, in the Rose Bowl and held onto the No. 1 AP ranking and a share of the national championship. In a rather sloppy and uninspired game, LSU edged Oklahoma, 21-14, for the BCS title -- though not without one last bit of drama.

Despite a mandate to vote for the BCS title game winner No. 1 in the final poll, three coaches (Mike Bellotti, Ron Turner and Lou Holtz) broke the contractual agreement and cast their No. 1 ballot for USC. The Tigers got their half of the title, but were quickly forgotten as USC romped to the BCS title games the following two seasons. The general acknowledgement that the Trojans won "back-to-back" national championships in 2003 and 2004 left many LSU fans embittered to this day.


Final BCS Standings: 1. Oklahoma, 2. LSU, 3. USC, 4. Michigan.

Alternative Methods:

* Using present-day formula: 1. LSU, 2. USC, 3. Oklahoma 4. Michigan.

* Using 1998-2003 formula eliminating SOS: 1. (Tie) Oklahoma, USC, 3. LSU, 4. Michigan.

* Using human polls only: 1. USC, 2. LSU, 3. Oklahoma, 4. Michigan.

* Plus-One: Oklahoma vs. Michigan; USC vs. LSU.


Controversies:

* The Snub of Miami of Ohio -- After losing the season opener to Iowa, 21-3, junior quarterback Ben Roethlisberger led the Red Hawks to 12 consecutive victories, beating Bowling Green for a second time in the Mid-American title game. Bowling Green, incidentally, lost only three times - twice to Miami and once at Ohio State, 24-17.

But despite a No. 11 ranking in the BCS standings, Miami never had a chance for an at-large berth. Even though the Red Hawks were "eligible," they received no consideration from the four BCS bowls and ended up finishing a 13-1 season by routing Louisville in the GMAC Bowl.

Until before the 2006 season, a non-BCS school had to be ranked in the top six for a guaranteed spot in a BCS bowl game. Under congressional pressure and with the advent of a fifth -- the BCS national championship game -- bowl, the standard for "mid-major" schools were relaxed to guarantee a spot for any team in the top 12. Too late for Miami and Big Ben, though.

* The Texas Shaft: Despite being ranked No. 5 in both polls, the Longhorns were shut out of a BCS bowl berth thanks to Kansas State's upset victory over Oklahoma. With the Big XII's two slots already spoken for, Texas had to settle for the Holiday Bowl where it was beaten by Washington State. But a year later, the 'Horns managed to avoid a return trip to San Diego by being engulfed in yet another BCS controversy.

Ironically, after being the BCS victim the first two years of its existence, Bill Snyder's Wildcats finally made its BCS bowl debut by earning the Big XII's automatic bid. K-State lost to Ohio State, 35-28, in a wild Fiesta Bowl.

*The Extra Game: On Jan. 9, 2004, Ted Waitt, CEO of Gateway Computers offered a $31 million package for a national championship game between USC and LSU. Despite vocal support from both teams, the NCAA did not consider the offer.

BCS Formula Review: With no audible criticism of its formula -- thanks to having two, and only two, undefeated teams in 2002 -- the BCS for the first time in four years maintained the same formula with only a slight adjustment to decrease the value of "quality win." This little-known adjustment actually thew some extra fuel on the controversy because LSU would've gotten an extra .40 points with its victory over Georgia, giving it a much more robust final lead of .56 over USC.

Analysis: Just how close was the LSU-USC spread? Had one of the four computers that ranked LSU No. 2 and USC No. 3 switched places for those teams, the Trojans would've gotten the coveted No. 2 BCS slot by .01 of a percentage point. Or, if the Tigers had not made the quantum leap from 54th to 29th in the SOS rating in the space of one week -- let's say they finished 34th instead, then USC would've been ahead by .04 of a percentage point. Yes, had any of the teams that USC played won one more game or any of LSU's opponents lost one more game, then it would've been a different outcome.

But still not a just outcome.

LSU was not undeserving of a spot in the BCS title game. That's not the issue at all. The "correct" result should've been a USC-LSU title game in the Sugar Bowl. The team that didn't belong there was Oklahoma, which failed to win its own conference after getting blown out in the Big XII title game -- in fact, a game that was not as close as the four-touchdown spread suggested.

An easy remedy could've been found, as early as 2001, after Nebraska somehow secured safe passage to the BCS title game without even winning its division, let along the conference. The old bowl alignment was always arranged to match conference champions in the most prestigious bowls, and therefore a pre-requisite of winning one's conference would not be unreasonable for teams vying to play in the BCS title game.

But the BCS refused to insert this one amendment -- even to this day. After the catastrophe of 2003, when the No. 1 team in both polls was denied a place in its title game that resulted in a split championship, the BCS was forced back to the drawing board, and smashed it up. A brand new formula was concocted to appease an increasingly angry and skeptical public.

The formula overhaul, however, would not save the BCS from the raging controversy of 2004.

Ten Years of BCS: 1999

The Guru's Note: Beginning in June, the Guru will publish a review of each of the 10 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. In this series -- Ten Years of BCS -- the Guru will examine the results from these seasons -- who got lucky and who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear weekly leading up to the 2008 season.

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Give yourself a big pat on the back, BCS. You deserve it. You got it right.

You matched up the only two undefeated major conference teams in the national championship game. Brilliant! Couldn't have done it without ya!

What's was left unsaid was: "Whew!"

Despite the obvious -- only Florida State and Virginia Tech emerged from the regular season unbeaten -- there were doubts about whether they'd face each other in the Sugar Bowl for the national title. At the end, Virginia Tech had a barely comfortable margin to hold off one-loss No. 3 Nebraska to play in the title game.

In the 10-year history of the BCS, 1999 had to be one of the most uneventful. The Seminoles went wire-to-wire as the No. 1 team, their place in New Orleans never in question. Upset losses by Penn State and Tennessee in the first two weeks of November paved the way for Virginia Tech to seize the No. 2 ranking.

The Hokies, led by redshirt freshman quarterback Michael Vick, had to sweat out the final four weeks of the regular season mostly because of a soft schedule. With strength of schedule a separate component accounting for nearly one-third of the BCS standings, Virginia Tech had a hard time gaining breathing room from the Cornhuskers, finishing just 1.30 points ahead in the final standings.

Just as in 1998, an undefeated non-BCS conference team finished the regular season unbeaten. And just like Tulane, a 12-0 Marshall team was shut out of a BCS bowl despite finishing No. 12 in the final standings. And one more thing like the Green Wave: The Thundering Herd, quarterbacked by Chad Pennington, completed a perfect season with a victory over BYU, in the Motor City Bowl.

In the Sugar Bowl, Vick rallied the Hokies to take a 29-28 lead at the end of the third quarter. But the Seminoles scored the game's final 18 points in the fourth quarter, giving Bobby Bowden his second, and final, national championship.

Final BCS Standings: 1. Florida State, 2. Virginia Tech, 3. Nebraska, 4. Alabama.

Alternative Methods:

* Using present day BCS formula: 1. Florida State, 2. Virginia Tech.

* Using human polls only: 1. Florida State, 2. Virginia Tech.

* Plus-One: Florida State vs. Alabama; Virginia Tech vs. Nebraska.

Controversies:

* Kansas State snub II: Well, it wasn't quite as egregious as the one in 1998, but the Wildcats once again earned the dubious honor of being the highest-ranked team not invited to a BCS bowl. K-State, ranked No. 6 with its only loss to Nebraska, was passed up by the Fiesta Bowl (No. 5 Tennessee) and Orange Bowl (No. 8 Michigan). But unlike the previous year, the Wildcats managed to hold it together and win the Holiday Bowl, 24-20, over Washington.

* Marshall snub: With today's arrangement, the Herd would've earned an automatic BCS berth. But with strength-of-schedule a key component in the formula at the time, Marshall was doomed by its 98th-place schedule. The MAC champs, however, would become the last undefeated team not to play in a BCS bowl.

BCS Formula Review: Five more computer rankings were added to the formula -- Billingsley, Dunkel, Massey, Matthews and Rothman -- bringing the total to eight. The lowest ranking among the eight was dropped and the remaining seven averaged to produce the computer ranking. Also, a "Kansas State clause" was added, guaranteeing any team finishing in the top four a BCS bowl spot, but the Wildcats weren't in position to benefit from it.

Analysis: Two years in, the BCS appeared to be producing the desired results. The title games matched deserving teams and the other BCS bowls featured interesting matchups. But this was only the calm before the storm, as raging controversies were about to envelope the BCS, forcing major changes almost annually in the coming years.

Ten Years of BCS: 1998

The Guru's Note: Beginning in June, the Guru will publish a review of each of the 10 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. In this series -- Ten Years of BCS -- the Guru will examine the results from these seasons -- who got lucky and who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear weekly leading up to the 2008 season.

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On the precipice of a disaster in its infancy, the BCS was magically rescued by the hurricanes -- one named Georges, the other named Edgerrin James.

Three teams headed into the final Saturday of the season with undefeated records: Tennessee, Kansas State and UCLA. The Vols and Wildcats were scheduled to play in their respective conference title games; while the Bruins, riding a nation-best 20-game winning streak, were to play Miami at the Orange Bowl in a makeup game.

Originally, the game was to be played on Sept. 26. But because of the imminent threat of Hurricane Georges, it was temporarily postponed. UCLA had the option of canceling the game outright and standing on its performance in 10 games, but it took the risky move of rescheduling the game for the final day of the season.

The Miami team that beat UCLA, 49-45, that day was a vast improvement over the one the Bruins would've faced on Sept. 26. Behind James' 299 rushing yards (on 39 carries), the 'Canes shredded a shaky UCLA defense and benefited from an erroneous fumble call. Besides ending UCLA's quest to appear in the first BCS title game, Miami's upset victory sent the Bruins on a long descent into national irrelevance.

After UCLA's loss, it was up to Tennessee and Kansas State to hold up their end of the bargain. The Volunteers did but the Wildcats didn't -- losing to double-digit underdog Texas A&M in double overtime, 36-33. As a parting gift, K-State was handed an Alamo Bowl berth after being shut out of the BCS bowls.

While the Tennessee-Florida State title game -- played in the Fiesta Bowl -- was generally acknowledged as a fair outcome, there were a few minor controversies in the year of BCS's birth. Besides the snubbing of K-State, an 11-0 Tulane team was also shut out of the BCS. But thanks to the hurricanes, a catastrophe was averted.

Final BCS Standings: 1. Tennessee, 2. Florida State, 3. Kansas State, 4. Ohio State.

Alternative methods:

• Using present day BCS formula: 1. Tennessee, 2. Florida State. 

• Using human polls only: 1. Tennessee (1-AP, 1-Coaches), 2. Florida State (2-AP, 2-Coaches).

• Plus-One: Tennessee vs. Ohio State; Florida State vs. Kansas State.

Controversies:

• Kansas State snub: Despite finishing third in the final BCS standings, the Wildcats found themselves in the non-BCS Alamo Bowl. The Sugar Bowl opted for Big Ten co-champion Ohio State, who was the top-ranked team for most of the season until a 28-24 upset loss to Michigan State. The Orange Bowl took Steve Spurrier's Florida Gators, who finished eighth in the BCS standings. A dispirited and disinterested K-State team lost to Purdue, 37-34.

• Tulane snub: An 11-0 record and Conference USA title weren't enough to get the Green Wave to a BCS bowl game, let alone a spot in the title game. Tulane, ranked No. 10, today would've received an automatic berth by being in the top 12. Nevertheless, playing without a head coach after Tommy Bowden took the Clemson job, the Green Wave romped to a 41-27 Liberty Bowl victory over BYU under some guy named Rich Rodriguez.

BCS Formula Review: The initial BCS standings, the brainchild of then-SEC commissioner Roy Kramer, was an unwieldy clunker divided in three -- human polls, computer rankings and strength of schedule. And each loss is tacked on as additional penalty. Only three computers were used -- Anderson & Hester, Jeff Sagarin and New York Times. Margin of victory was accounted for by all three computers and a 50% adjusted maximum deviation factor was applied.

Analysis: UCLA's loss, which occurred earlier in the day on Dec. 5, gave the BCS poobahs a huge sigh of relief. Tennessee's 23-16 victory over Florida State in the Fiesta Bowl, though underwhelming, was controversy-free. The BCS seemingly passed its first test ... only if they knew.