Saturday, November 17, 2012

You Can't Spell BCS Without SEC

This is why when the going gets tough, the tough schedules Western Carolina (or Georgia Southern, or Jacksonville State, or Wofford, or Sam Houston State).

The only conference that has the BCS figured out is going to be in the championship game for a seventh consecutive year - and possibly an all-SEC final for a second straight season. After Saturday night's unthinkable evisceration of the previous top two teams in the BCS standings, that's the only near-sure thing we have.

An SEC team will face Notre Dame in the BCS championship game in Miami on Jan. 7, if the Irish can get by a likely Matt Barkley-less (but a full Monte-Lane) USC team. If Notre Dame chokes at the L.A. Coliseum, then a number of scenarios may still emerge, and all of which will still involve at least one SEC team in the title game.

By way of its genius scheduling, the SEC's heavyweights all had virtual bye weeks on Saturday (South Carolina's workout was a bit more strenuous than desired, but still) while the Pac-12 and Big 12 engaged in ritual suicides with their national championship quests.

The biggest losers Saturday are undoubtedly Oregon and Kansas State, who not only lost their respective grip on a spot in the national championship game, but might even be shut out of a BCS bowl all together. The Ducks won't win their division if Stanford beats UCLA next week to set up a rematch with the Bruins in the Pac-12 title game. The Wildcats, meanwhile, would be usurped as the Big 12 champion if they lose to Texas next week while Oklahoma defeats Oklahoma State.

The obvious beneficiary of Saturday's upsets is of course Notre Dame, but it needed only one of the teams in front of it to lose. The real winner is the SEC, which now has the following (and multiple) paths to the BCS championship game:

* If Alabama beats Auburn and Georgia beats Georgia Tech, the winner of the SEC title game will face Notre Dame in the BCS title game (if the Irish defeat USC).

* If Notre Dame is upset by USC, then the SEC champ likely would face Florida in the BCS title game, if the Gators get by Florida State in their season finale. It could be Cocktail Party II, just 400 miles south.

* If Notre Dame and Florida both lose next week, then either Oregon or Kansas State might sneak back into the title game to face the SEC champion.

* About the only realistic scenario where the SEC might be shut out of the BCS title game is this: Notre Dame defeats USC, Georgia loses to Georgia Tech but beats Alabama in the SEC title game and Florida loses to Florida State. If all those hypotheticals occur, then it'll be Notre Dame against either Kansas State or Oregon.

* And the odd team out is still Florida State (and Clemson). Even with a win over Florida next week, the Seminoles are unlikely to earn a shot at the BCS championship game, thanks to their terrible computer rankings and the overall weakness of the ACC. FSU likely will face 6-6 Georgia Tech or 7-5 Miami (if it chooses not to self-impose a ban) in the ACC title game.


Projected BCS Standings:

1. Notre Dame, 2. Alabama, 3. Georgia, 4. Florida, 5. Kansas State, 6. Oregon, 7. LSU, 8. Florida State, 9. Texas A&M, 10. Stanford, 11. South Carolina, 12. Clemson, 13. Oklahoma, 14. Nebraska, 15. Texas.

20 comments:

bill said...

* If Alabama beats Auburn and Georgia Tech beats Georgia, the winner of the SEC title game will face Notre Dame in the BCS title game (if the Irish defeat USC).

.. You mean if Georgia beats Georgia Tech ...

The Guru said...

Thanks for the catch. Already fixed.

tyamdaly said...

Ok if Georgia Tech beats Georgia, then Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC title game and if ND looses at USC and if UCLA beats Stanford then Oregon wins the PAC12 championship over UCLA then its ND vs Oregon. If Oregon looses to UCLA then you throw in Florida, that is if they beat FSU. But if ND takes care of business at USC and 'Bama does its thing. It will be ND vs 'Bama. I truly believe a 1 loss ND will be in the BCS title game. The $$$ signs are ripe. The people will vote ND in.

Jmac823200 said...

If FSU beats uf and Clemson beats USC, doesn't it take the wind out of the SEC schedule "strength"?

The Guru said...

@jmac823200 - Not going to make that much of a difference with two games.

ROAD DAWG said...

Ok when the Irish luck runs out and they fall to USC and bama beats Georgia in the SEC championship game Florida state beats Florida will the computers finally recognize Florida state or will a Kansas state win over Texas put them in championship game against Alabama

Big Poppa said...

Thursday 11/15/2012 Projections

Florida State defeats Florida...
Clemson defeats South Carolina...
The top three (Kansas State, Oregon and Notre Dame), lose in the coming weeks...

It will be mayhem because the computers suggest that the SEC Champion (Alabama or Georgia) will face LSU* for the BCS title.

*Assuming LSU wins remaining games and finishes the season with a record of 10-2.*
____________________________________________________
11/17/2012 Week 12 Aftermath

#1 Kansas State and #2 Oregon lost, which puts the SEC back in National Championship contention. As few as three more games could realistically place two SEC teams in the National Championship for the second time in as many years. Another All SEC BCS Title matchup doesn't look like such a long shot.

Allons les tigres!
Caedite eos. Novit enim Dominus qui sunt eius.

Anonymous said...

UCLA will be Top 15 after beating 18th ranked USC, and they beat Nebraska earlier in the year so should be above them too

Anonymous said...

Does anyone really think anyone can beat Texas A&M. New Coach, new system, lost two games early on. NOW really, can any one beat them today. Cannot wait for the playoff brackets next year.

Mike Montoya said...

Kansas state gets ripped and the ducks lose in ot to a very good Stanford team , how do the ducks stay behind KS? Bama loses and only drops 3 spots. Makes no sense.

No1GeorgiaFan said...

I think USC will do the right thing and beat ND, Bama will roll Georgia for a Flordia-Bama title game, Bama taking the cake and eating it too.

Anonymous said...

If ND loses to USC and Florida beats FSU then Florida is in.

Ravi said...

I don't see any relevance of sec's out of conference schedule to what happened this week. Looks like sour grapes. Both top teams lost to in-conference rivals, just like Alabama, Florida and Georgia.

bluburt said...

How the Hell can K State be ranked higher than Oregon...?

What drug induced coma do you need to be in to rank K State higher...?

Oregon lost to the #13 team, who just happened to take the new #1 to OT in a game that they should have won...

Last I checked, K State got DESTROYED by an unranked opponent...

BS is right...

Anonymous said...

BCS is bs. There are now several teams at 10-1. Why, then, will the BCS people automatically move Bama to No. 2? Is Bama's loss really that different that they should get special treatment? Bama will move only because the stupid system all but requires a team move down when they lose.

Anonymous said...

Where would Ohio State be if eligible?

The Guru said...

Ohio State, if we base it on the AP poll vote shares, would be about 7th or 8th in the BCS standings.

Nick Kent said...

Don't like the whining about schedules. Oregon played the three game gauntlet of Arkansas St, Fresno St, and Tennessee Tech. Say what you want about the SEC, but when they lose and get knocked off number one or two, they're losing to ranked teams, not to teams with losing records or unranked teams at home a la Kansas St last weekend, USC a few years ago to UCLA, or WVU against Pitt in 07, Okla St last season. How do you lose to Baylor and Iowa State?

Anonymous said...

Nick, 1. K-State didn't lose at home. 2. Maybe Big 12 teams lose to bottom half Big 12 teams because the Big 12 is solid from top to bottom. The bottom 2/3 of the SEC is an embarrassment and don't have a chance against the top teams and thus never beat them.

SEC bias is completely stupid. Just look at schedules and you'll realize why there are so many "good" SEC teams.

Anonymous said...

There are two rules for the BCS:
Rule 1: An SEC team must be in the championship game.
Rule 2: In the event that no SEC team is worthy of being in the championship game, SEE RULE number 1!

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