LSU-Alabama II?

The biggest winner Saturday night after the miracle in Lansing and the debacle in Norman?

The loser of the SEC-Alabama game in two weeks.

Losses by Oklahoma and Wisconsin reduced the ranks of the unbeatens to just eight, with only six having a realistic shot at the BCS title game (sorry K-State and Houston). But an unimpressive victory by Boise State at home against Air Force could also potentially prove fatal for the Broncos' championship quest.

If Oklahoma State should stumble somewhere along the way, the possibility of a rematch between SEC West rivals LSU and Alabama in the BCS national championship game becomes very real. As it is, these two teams will be significantly ahead of everyone else in the next BCS standings, with another gulf between No. 3 Oklahoma State and the rest.

What that means is that in the event of a close game in two weeks in Tuscaloosa, the loser will not fall too far in the standings and has ample chance to climb back up to No. 2. On top of all that, it won't have to play an extra game against an SEC East foe to drag down its computer rankings.

The Guru's projections are here, with a full analysis exclusively at SB Nation:

1. LSU, 2. Alabama, 3. Oklahoma State, 4. Clemson, 5. Stanford, 6. Boise State, 7. Arkansas, 8. Kansas State, 9. Oregon, 10. Oklahoma, 11. Nebraska, 12. Michigan State, 13. Wisconsin, 14. South Carolina, 15. Virginia Tech.

Roses, But No Crystal Ball, for Big Ten and Pac-12

The first official BCS Standings of the 2011 season is due out next Sunday. But with both the Coaches Poll and Harris Poll, plus five of the six computer data available, we already have a pretty good picture (about 94 percent accurate) on what the BCS landscape will be like.

It will come up Roses for the Big Ten and Pac-12 winner. As in, Pasadena, instead of the BCS title game.

The BCS final battles will be settled when LSU goes to Alabama on Nov. 5 and, if applicable, when Oklahoma visits Stillwater for Bedlam on Dec. 3. Almost no other games will matter, and that includes the inaugural Big Ten and Pac-12 championships.

---

SIMULATED BCS STANDINGS

---

While each league still has an unbeaten team that has a legitimate shot at going undefeated (Wisconsin and Stanford), they'll have neither the poll support nor the computer points to overtake the survivors of the two aforementioned showdowns.

The Badgers are the odds-on favorite to win the Leaders Division of the new Big Ten, but their best-case scenario will be the Rose Bowl at this point. The Badgers have only themselves to blame for their cupcake-filled nonconference schedule that dragged down their computer rankings. In three of the five computer ratings available, Wisconsin is ranked in the mid-teens.

Stanford is likewise done in by its schedule, but its main problem will be the polls. The Cardinal have yet to play a ranked team and their only chance to demonstrate their worth for the voters will be their Nov. 12 showdown against Oregon. USC and Notre Dame remain on Stanford's schedule, but they may be of only limited utility to Andrew Luck & Co.

At the moment, it appears the winner of the LSU-Alabama game will be a lock to go unbeaten, as the winner of the weak SEC East won't be able to put up much resistance in the conference championship game. Oklahoma may be a bit more vulnerable, as it has a trip to Oklahoma State and games at Manhattan and Waco still remaining. But at least the Sooners don't need to worry about a potential trap in the now-defunct Big 12 title game.

Now, should OU falter, who's more likely to step in?

Firmly in the on-deck circle is Boise State. The Broncos already had its signature win in their season opener against Georgia, and it may be consigned to a fate of not having faced a single ranked opponent. They will be heavily-favored to run the table, but the Broncos will have no shot at the BCS title game unless OU or the SEC winner loses a game.

If the Broncos should lose a shocker (very unlikely) or slump in the BCS standings (more plausible), then here's the surprise. The winner of the ACC faceoff between Clemson and Georgia Tech on Oct. 29 in Atlanta may be a darkhorse for the BCS title game should the SEC or Big 12 leaders falter. Both teams have relatively healthy computer rankings and still have decent opponents left on the schedule to boost their profile.

There are four other unbeaten teams left (Michigan, Illinois, Kansas State, Houston), but none of them is a serious threat to remain unbeaten the rest of the season. So one week before we're even into the official BCS standings, the pecking order is pretty much set.

The Rose Bowl hates the idea of being thought of as a consolation prizes, but that's what it gets from its Faustian bargain with the BCS.

The Guru's BlogPoll (Week 5)

The Guru's BlogPoll ballot, with notes below:

BCS Guru Ballot - Week 5

Rank	Team	Delta
1	LSU Tigers	--
2	Alabama Crimson Tide	2
3	Oklahoma Sooners	-1
4	Boise St. Broncos	-1
5	Stanford Cardinal	--
6	Wisconsin Badgers	3
7	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	-1
8	Oregon Ducks	2
9	Clemson Tigers	6
10	Michigan Wolverines	6
11	Texas Longhorns	7
12	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	7
13	West Virginia Mountaineers	4
14	Arkansas Razorbacks	--
15	Florida Gators	-1
16	Nebraska Cornhuskers	-9
17	Virginia Tech Hokies	-5
18	Kansas St. Wildcats	--
19	Illinois Fighting Illini	2
20	Houston Cougars	2
21	Auburn Tigers	--
22	Arizona St. Sun Devils	1
23	South Carolina Gamecocks	-15
24	USC Trojans	--
25	San Diego St. Aztecs	--
Dropouts: Texas A&M Aggies, South Florida Bulls, Baylor Bears, Utah Utes

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

* Alabama, with back-to-back wins over Arkansas and Florida, is now No. 2, jumping over Oklahoma, which beat up another overmatched non-BCS, non-conference foe. The Sooners face Texas next week and maybe that will be a tougher test.

* Wisconsin made the biggest splash this week, rudely welcoming Nebraska to the Big Ten with a solid spanking. The Huskers, thus exposed, took a plunge down the ballot.

* While I'm not completely sold on Michigan, which has won all five games at home, there is a case to be made for the Wolverines to be in the Top 10. Its only close game has come against Notre Dame, which is a decent, if barely not a Top 25 team. We'll find out more about Michigan in the next two weeks when it travels to face Northwestern and Michigan State.

* It was probably a mistake to take Arkansas out of last week's poll after its blowout loss against Alabama. Should've considered the competition.

* New teams that made the ballot this week: Arkansas, Kansas State, Auburn, San Diego State.

* Conference-by-conference tally: SEC (6), Pac-12 (4), Big 12 (4), Big Ten (4), ACC (3), MWC (2), Big East (1), C-USA (1).

Does Auburn Have a Bye on Saturday?

Should Gene Chizik hold out Cam Newton and most of his starters on Saturday, not because of eligibility issues, but to rest them for the BCS title game?

Absurd thought, right? But not as far fetched as you think. There's a chance that Auburn can lose to South Carolina in the SEC championship game and still get in the BCS title game.

It's happened before, twice, when a team that lost its final game and still played for the BCS title: Nebraska in 2001 and Oklahoma in 2003. But it's not happened since '03 because of the most recent change in the BCS formula, which now grants two-thirds of its weight toward human polls.

So if Auburn loses on Saturday, the 173 voters in the coaches and Harris polls will be the judges in this beauty pageant that, if you think about it, is pretty much like American Idol or Dancing with the Stars.

This is how it works. Even with a loss, Auburn is expected to be No. 1 in at least 3 computers. Its final computer score will be No. 1, ahead of both Oregon and TCU, even with a loss. At worst, Auburn will have a .980 computer score.

Now, if TCU wants to get past Auburn, it had better hope that every voter has the Horned Frogs at no worse than No. 2. If that's the case, fine, TCU gets to play Oregon. If enough voters waffle on who should be No. 2 and split them up between TCU and Auburn, then TCU might not get that date with the Ducks.

There is already plenty of chatter about TCU's worthiness for the BCS title game, a battle joined by Rodney Gilmore during ESPN's show on Sunday, during which he brazenly discredited almost everything the Horned Frogs did this season. There is little doubt that such sentiment is shared by some of those voters, who will look for every excuse to prevent TCU from becoming the first non-AQ team to play for the BCS title.

That fear is clearly reflected in the school's rushed decision today to basically destroy all of its athletic programs by joining the Big East, in a vain quest to be part of the BCS crowd. Case-in-point: TCU has a powerhouse baseball program that soon must play UConn, Rutgers and Georgetown and nowhere near Texas, that's really going to help its recruiting tremendously.

But that's a different post for a different day. For now, here are the scenarios for BCS games:

Oregon and Auburn both win:

BCS Championship - Oregon vs. Auburn
Rose Bowl - TCU vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl - Arkansas vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl - ACC Champ vs. Big East Champ
Fiesta Bowl - Big 12 Champ vs. Stanford

Oregon loses, Auburn wins or loses:

BCS Championship - Auburn vs. TCU
Rose Bowl - Oregon vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl - Arkansas or South Carolina vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl - ACC Champ vs. Big East Champ
Fiesta Bowl - Big 12 Champ vs. Stanford

Oregon wins, Auburn loses:

(if 85% or more voters put Auburn third or worse)

BCS Championship - Oregon vs. TCU
Rose Bowl - Stanford vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl - South Carolina vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl - ACC Champ vs. Auburn
Fiesta Bowl - Big 12 Champ vs. Big East Champ

(if 15% or more voters put Auburn third or better)

BCS Championship - Oregon vs. Auburn
Rose Bowl - TCU vs. Wisconsin
Sugar Bowl - South Carolina vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl - ACC Champ vs. Big East Champ
Fiesta Bowl - Big 12 Champ vs. Stanford

Of course, Chizik would do no such thing as holding out his best players, but the fact remains that as long as the Tigers don't get blown out of the building, they have a real shot to play for the BCS title even if they lose. No team other than the top three in the BCS standings has a prayer of getting into the title game no matter what happens Saturday, as Oregon will not be dropped behind Stanford after having beaten the Cardinal by 21 points earlier in the season.

As for the Rose Bowl, since I am the man who made the famous flub, of course I should predict, with utter confidence, that Wisconsin is in. No matter what happens this weekend, Badger fans, you can book your tickets to Pasadena now. The Guru says so. (And as a former resident of Pasadena, I may even offer you some tips.)

How the Guru Whiffed on Bucky

So I blew it. In my five years of being the BCS Guru, this was the worst flub I've ever had. Because one of the mistakes is so egregious, I owe you folks an explanation.

The first mistake was fairly minor, that Auburn went ahead of Oregon by .0002. I didn't foresee the Tigers gaining that much ground in the polls after a game that they were truly lucky to win (Alabama really should've had a 35-0 lead and put the game to bed in the second quarter). I knew Auburn would be No. 1 in all the computers, so as soon as both polls came out, I knew the exact margin and Tweeted it as much.

Now, the serious mistake was having Ohio State ahead of Wisconsin in the original projection. That of course goes beyond flip-flopping teams in the 5 and 6 spots because of what's at stake - a Rose Bowl berth.

First, there's the obvious question of whether this was a publicity stunt. Fair question. If it were, then that means I have no integrity and was going for the cheap thrill of getting undue attention. That's absolutely not the case. I've been toiling at this for too long and built up too much goodwill and trust than to risk it for some one-night stand.

Then it becomes a question of competence. Having your credibility in doubt isn't all that much better than having your integrity savaged. When no WMD was found in Iraq, President Bush was called either a liar or a dunce by his critics. Same here, but of course with much less at stake.

The erroneous projection happened because of a miscalculation of the polls and a simple data entry error. If only one of the two occurred, it would not have happened. That the fact both of them happened on this one projection (on Ohio State) made it a perfect storm.

First, the poll miscalculation. The polls are always harder to project than the computers because it involves psychology. You have to form an educated evaluation on the behavior of the voters. That's much more difficult than analyzing the computers, which follows a certain formula and ironclad logic. I had believed that by virtue of LSU's loss to Arkansas, thus removing it as a buffer between Ohio State and Wisconsin, the Buckeyes would gain significant ground in the polls.

That didn't happen in the margins I had forecast. Wisconsin lost only 26 points in the coaches poll and a completely unforeseen 24 points in the Harris poll, out of 114 voters. I had projected the Buckeyes to pick up about 100 points in the Harris poll with LSU gone, but that simply didn't happen.

Now you must wonder, given that I had to know Wisconsin would stay ahead of Ohio State in the two polls, did I completely screw up on the computers?

The truth is, I didn't. That's why this was such a mind-numbing debacle.

I simply transposed two projections. on Massey and Sagarin, I assigned the values of 20 (for No. 6) to OSU instead of OU on my spreadsheet, and 10 (No. 16) for OSU to OU.

By making these mistakes, Ohio State's computer numbers were inflated to .790 instead of .680 (OSU's actual BCS computer score was .660) and Oklahoma's was deflated from .780 to .640 (OU actual: .760). This explains why OU was also initially projected to be a spot lower (No. 10) than it ended up (No. 9).

I don't expect everyone who reads this blog to get all this - and you shouldn't have to. It was incumbent on me to check and double-check my own data before publishing the projections. Perhaps I was in too much of a rush to get the projections out (this has become a bad habit since I moved back to the West Coast), or maybe because I did so well the last two weeks (1-10 in exact order two weeks ago and 1-13 last week) that a little hubris got the better of meticulousness.

Whatever, it was my mistake and I own it. The only thing to do is to acknowledge it and make sure it won't happen again. I still maintain that my record speaks for itself over the years, against Jerry Palm, Brad Edwards, anybody. I have a report card dating from 2006 to prove it.

And finally, I don't mind the criticism and even the hate mail. I deserve it, and I won't erase any of it to cover my own ass. You can't make me feel any worse than I already do.

The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 9)

The Guru's BlogPoll ballot, with notes below:

BCS Guru Ballot - Week 9

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Oregon Ducks	--
2	Boise St. Broncos	--
3	TCU Horned Frogs	--
4	Auburn Tigers	3
5	Michigan St. Spartans	-1
6	Utah Utes	-1
7	Missouri Tigers	5
8	Wisconsin Badgers	2
9	Stanford Cardinal	--
10	Ohio St. Buckeyes	1
11	Oklahoma Sooners	-5
12	Nebraska Cornhuskers	1
13	Alabama Crimson Tide	1
14	Arizona Wildcats	1
15	Florida St. Seminoles	3
16	LSU Tigers	-8
17	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	--
18	Iowa Hawkeyes	-2
19	Nevada Wolf Pack	1
20	South Carolina Gamecocks	1
21	Arkansas Razorbacks	1
22	Virginia Tech Hokies	1
23	Miami Hurricanes	--
24	Mississippi St. Bulldogs	--
25	USC Trojans	--
Dropouts: West Virginia Mountaineers, Kansas St. Wildcats, Northwestern Wildcats

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

* Oregon, Boise State and TCU continue to occupy the top three spots on my ballot, and I have seen no reason to move them or change the order. Auburn, off victories over Arkansas and LSU, moved up to No. 4. There are now just seven undefeated teams, with the number guaranteed to shrink by at least one as TCU will face Utah in two weeks.

* Wisconsin is now the highest-ranked one-loss team, at No. 8. The Badgers own victories over Ohio State and Iowa and their only loss was to No. 5 Michigan State.

* Why is Alabama No. 13 on this ballot while it's in the top five in the polls: Alabama's best victories this season so far have been discredited - though Florida and Penn State were both ranked when they faced the Tide, neither team is in the top 25 now and both are fighting to stay bowl eligible. 'Bama's loss to South Carolina (a two-touchdown loss) also has been devalued as the Gamecoks subsequently lost to Kentucky. Alabama will gain some placements among one-loss teams if it can defeat LSU and Auburn, but until then, it doesn't deserve to be ranked any higher.

* Other teams considered this week: San Diego State, Hawaii, West Virginia, Northwestern, Baylor, Kansas State.

Preseason Over; Game On

College football does have a preseason, for better or for worse. Over the years, most of the elite teams have learned not to front-load their schedules so that their entire season could be destroyed in the first week. Teams with national championship aspirations nowadays typically warm up with a cupcake or two before going for the main course.

Well, the 2008 preseason is over.

The USC-Ohio State showdown Saturday night has already been billed as the biggest game of this regular season. But the truth is that it's merely the main event of a loaded card that includes several games that will make a lasting impact on this season's BCS races - whether it's for the national championship or a spot in the other four lucrative bowl games. Some teams will move up, a few will hold their ground and certainly, a couple will crash out.

These, in order of magnitude, constitute this Saturday's must-see TV: (Unofficial BCS rankings denoted)

No. 5 Ohio State at No. 1 USC (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET) - Two weeks ago, this game had a chance of being a 1-vs.-2 matchup. On the eve of the contest, it's looking more and more like a potential Trojans blowout. While top-ranked USC was impressive in throttling Virginia in its opener and had a week to get ready for the game, Ohio State lost its hold on No. 2 with a lackluster home win over Ohio, and now it appears that it's also lost running back Beanie Wells.

History isn't really on the Buckeyes' side - and neither are the gamblers, who have seen fit to move the spread into double-digit territory in favor of USC. In the Jim Tressel era, they have only ventured outside of Columbus twice to play a formidable non-conference foe. Ohio State lost to UCLA in 2002 and beat a post-Vince Young Texas team in 2006. USC, meanwhile, lost just once in the Coliseum to a non-conference opponent in the Pete Carroll era - on Sept. 8, 2001, a 10-6 loss to Kansas State in Carroll's second game as USC coach.

No. 10 Wisconsin at No. 23 Fresno State (Saturday, 10:30 p.m.) - Pat Hill calls this the biggest home game in Fresno State history. He gets no argument here, or anywhere. Win, the Bulldogs instantly become a serious BCS bowl contender. Lose, Fresno State goes back to being a baseball school again.

Kudos to Wisconsin for even scheduling this game in Fresno. The Badgers will get a return home game in 2009, but the business at hand could be quite daunting. These two teams actually met twice in the early 2000s, splitting a pair in Madison. This time, the Badgers will have to find a way to get it done away from Camp Randall.

No. 11 Kansas at No. 19 South Florida (Friday, 8 p.m.) - Much is riding on the game for the woebegone Big East. A loss by the Bulls it could be requiem for the conference, its legitimacy obliterated. South Florida is also fighting for its own legitimacy, after a free-fall that followed the team's ascension to No. 2 in the BCS standings a year ago.

The Jayhawks, having won 14 of their last 15 games, have designs on making a basketball-football double in 2008. But there's no need to do too much looking ahead. Kansas last played a BCS conference foe on the road in 2004 - and it lost to Northwestern, 20-17. That's the kind of history the Jayhawks want to leave behind.

No. 29 UCLA at No. 17 BYU (Saturday, 3:30 p.m.) - If familiarity breeds contempt, then these two teams should be at each other's throats from the coin flip, meeting for the third time in 372 days. The Bruins won at the Rose Bowl during the 2007 regular season but lost in the Las Vegas Bowl when a last-second field goal attempt was blocked.

The UCLA teams of the Karl Dorrell era were noted for their inability to stand prosperity. Rick Neuheisel will be seeking to reverse that, coming off a huge opener win over Tennessee. BYU, with an eye on a BCS bowl berth, escaped with a win over Washington on a controversial penalty at the end of the game. The Cougars will need a little more than luck against the Bruins.

No. 34 Michigan at No. 45 Notre Dame (Saturday, 3:30 p.m.) - OK, when you're done laughing, you need to read the rest of this. The Irish could make it to a BCS bowl, it's no joke. Notre Dame has an extremely favorable schedule this season, with only probably one game it has no chance of winning - the season finale at USC.

If the Irish win nine games and are ranked in the top 14 of the final BCS standings, they most likely will earn a BCS bowl berth. Beat Michigan, then that path will be wide open for Notre Dame. After losing the last two meetings by a combined score of 85-21, the Irish shouldn't need much motivation, especially against the undermanned and offensively-challenged Wolverines.