In Defense of the Pac-10

When it comes to propaganda and publicity, the Pac-10 is woefully ill-prepared in this arms race. Of all the BCS conference, no one undersells itself better than the Pac-10.

If USC isn't such a media darling and hated around the country for its glitz and glam (not to mention excellence), the Pac-10 would be completely unheard of. Out of sight, out of mind. It's a pity because you can make a reasonable argument that the Pac-10 really is the best conference in college football, perhaps 10 years running.

But in the BCS Era, the college football cognoscenti (the self-anointed ones, that is) have been lapping it up at the SEC trough. And the last three seasons, coming on four, an SEC team has been crowned the BCS national champion.

That isn't so much affirmation of SEC's superiority as the sign that it's adroitly winning the media war. If the old Confederacy wasn't able to conquer America, its rightful descendants have made sure that the South indeed has risen.

Don't blame the SEC for understanding and leveraging the system to its maximum benefit. But do blame the Pac-10 for not doing its job.

The SEC has an exclusive contract with CBS, which in essence becomes its mouthpiece and lobbyist (see Florida vs. Michigan, 2006). It has a new 15-year deal with ESPN, which also shepherds the nascent SEC Network. The Pac-10, on the other hand, is just a rumor.

Of all the conferences in the ABC/ESPN umbrella, the Pac-10 has arguably the worst deal. Except for the occasional USC prime time games, all Pac-10 games on ABC are regionally televised, which meant they are never seen east of the Rockies. The Pac-10 also plays on Versus (which isn't on DirecTV nowadays) and Fox Sports Net, which is a regional alliance, not a national presence.

Unfortunately for the Pac-10, lacking TV exposure is merely part of its failure to communicate.

Do you know that the Pac-10 teams play nine conference games each? Yep, they play a true round-robin, which means that of all the BCS conferences, the Pac-10 plays the toughest schedule by default because it plays the most conference games. And don't just take my word for it, Jeff Sagarin has the goods.

According to Sagarin's data, of the top 19 schedules this season, nine belong to Pac-10 teams, with five in the top 10, including Oregon at No. 6 and USC at No. 7. How many SEC teams are in the same range? Two: Georgia at No. 10 and LSU at No. 17. You have to go to No. 25 to find Alabama and No. 42 for Florida. (And these numbers will only get worse for the top SEC teams.)

Alas, there's the unmentionable. Part of the SEC's success is that its best teams almost never play anybody outside of conference. And with only eight conference games, they fatten up their records on overmatched opponents at home.

Look at the schedules from 2006-2009, a period where an SEC team has played for the BCS title and USC has been shut out (we're treating 2009 as fait accompli):

Florida
Troy
Florida International
Charleston Southern*
Hawaii
Miami (Fla.)
Citadel*
Western Kentucky*
Troy
Florida Atlantic
Central Florida
Southern Mississippi
Western Carolina*
+ Traditional rival Florida State

LSU
UL-Lafayette
Washington
Louisiana Tech,
Appalachian State*
North Texas
Troy
Virginia Tech
Middle Tennessee State
Louisiana Tech
UL-Monroe
Arizona
Fresno State
+ Traditional rival Tulane

Alabama
Virginia Tech
Florida International
North Texas
Chattanooga*
Clemson
Tulane
Western Kentucky
Arkansas State
Western Carolina*
Florida State
Houston
UL-Monroe
Hawaii
UL-Monroe
Duke
Florida International

(*I-AA opponent at the time when the game was held)

So here's the break down. Over the past four years, in Florida's 12 OCC games excluding its annual rivalry game with FSU, it has played just one BCS conference team (Miami). The rest is mostly against I-AA roadkill (4) and hapless Sun Belt squads (4). It's a little better for LSU (12 games: 3 BCS, 1 I-AA, 5 Sun Belt) and Alabama (16 games: 4 BCS, 2 I-AA, 7 Sun Belt).

Contrast that to USC's schedule since it last played for the BCS title:

Ohio State
San Jose State
Ohio State
Virginia
Idaho
Nebraska
Arkansas
Nebraska
+ Traditional rival Notre Dame

Out of those eight games, six were against BCS opponents, and each was a home-and-home series. For the record, USC is one of only three teams (UCLA and Notre Dame are the others) that have never played a game against I-AA teams.

The point here is not necessarily that the SEC's elite teams are overrated. It simply states the fact that they take the path of least resistance. And for the most part, they get rewarded handsomely for it after trotting out the convenient (and false) disclaimer that "just playing in the SEC is tough enough."

The point here also is to say that the Pac-10 does its conference members a disservice for not disseminating the fact that annually, the conference on average plays a tougher schedule than anyone else and that it has also fared better against other BCS conference teams than anyone else over the past decade.

Why is this the case?

In the BCS Era, when college football has become a national game, the Pac-10 has stayed mostly regional and provincial. But don't blame this on geography. The time difference isn't an issue any more as most games are now finished well before midnight Eastern. Do blame it on apathy and a lack of ingenuity, and that starts with the conference headquarters in Walnut Creek.

The Pac-10 likes to call itself the conference of champions, but the reality is nobody gives a flying hoot how many women's underwater squash titles or NACDA Directors' Cups (do you even know what that is?) your conference has won. The thing that really matters is the crystal ball, and the Pac-10 has only one to show for it - besides being routinely shut out of a second BCS bowl berth by an inferior conference such as the Big Ten.

The irony of all this is that unlike most other conferences, the Pac-10 universities play in some of the biggest media markets. Two in Los Angeles, two in the San Francisco Bay Area, Phoenix, Seattle. Only Washington State is in the middle of nowhere. There is no shortage of media outlets (print, online, radio, television, whatever) to get the word out. Yet, other than USC, the rest of the Pac-10 might as well be playing in Belarus.

In the 11 years of the BCS, only once has the Pac-10 received two BCS berths. That was 2002, when the Trojans finished as co-champs and ended up playing Iowa in the Orange Bowl. Cal came close in 2004, but was cheated out of a Rose Bowl berth by Mack Brown. This may finally be the year that the conference gets that coveted second BCS spot, but probably only because USC is nudged out of the Rose Bowl.

If the Trojans work their way back into Pasadena (not at all inconceivable, all they need is an Oregon loss to Arizona for a three-way tie), then will the Pac-10 still claim that second BCS bowl slot? Probably not.

It's time for the Pac-10 to seriously consider what kind of player it wants to be in college football. In the meantime, it should probably hire a PR firm, as the WAC did. When it comes to publicity, the Pac-10 needs all the help it can get.

The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 10)

The Guru's Blogpoll ballot, with notes below:

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Texas
2	Alabama
3	Florida
4	TCU	2
5	Boise State	1
6	Cincinnati	1
7	Pittsburgh	6
8	Georgia Tech	2
9	LSU	1
10	Oregon	5
11	USC	1
12	Ohio State	4
13	Utah	1
14	Iowa	5
15	Houston
16	Arizona	2
17	Miami (Florida)	3
18	Penn State	7
19	South Florida	2
20	Oklahoma State	2
21	Brigham Young	2
22	West Virginia	2
23	Wisconsin
24	Oregon State
25	Navy
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: California (#17), Notre Dame (#19), Oklahoma (#25).

* The top of my ballot is taking shape and this feel about right. Texas is playing a bit better than the two SEC heavyweights, but not by much. TCU is the best team among the other three unbeatens, just slightly ahead of Boise. The Broncos have a better victory - over Oregon - but really didn't have another win to validate it. Should the Horned Frogs beat Utah next week, they'll be even more entrenched in that position.

* Cincinnati can still move up, though I have the Bearcats at No. 6 right now. Should they defeat both West Virginia and Pittsburgh, then they would warrant another look. As it is, their signature victory - at Oregon State - isn't quite as impressive as TCU's and Boise's.

* To me, LSU-Oregon-USC-Ohio State, in that order, among 2-loss teams, is quite reasonable. It boggles my mind that voters in the other polls have such amnesia. Wasn't it just last week that Oregon whupped USC? And didn't the Trojans outlast Ohio State at Columbus? LSU's two losses were the best ones among the bunch, that's why the Tigers are ahead of the others.

* Every 2-loss team in the BCS conferences are on the ballot, except Rutgers, whose resume just isn't there. The best 3-loss team is on the ballot: Oregon State, with close losses to Cincinnati, USC and Arizona.

* The least logical placement is probably Navy at No. 25. But it's not that much of a stretch. The Midshipmen lost close games to Ohio State, Pittsburgh and vastly improved Temple, and beat Air Force, Wake Forest and now Notre Dame (not to mention Adm. Isoroku Yamamoto's Imperial Japanese Navy). What else can you say? Anchors Aweigh!

(Even if you're a Notre Dame fan, you can't possibly be too mad about this)

The Biggest Game Was Played on C-SPAN

While you're digesting all of those scores from Saturday night, the most important one might've flown under the radar: 220-215. Those five votes could mean the difference of all the bowl money ever spent in the history of college football ... and then some. Yep, the price tag for that health care bill is in excess of $1 trillion.

(Sure hope you have an offshore account somewhere, preferably with funds not in U.S. dollar.)

OK, staying on point and returning to our frivolous sporting pursuit ...

It didn't turn out to be Upset Saturday exactly, but the BCS picture definitely became a bit more clear, if not quite crystal clear. This much we do know:

* It appears that a BCS championship matchup between Texas and the SEC champion, either Alabama or Florida, is all but inevitable.

* Iowa finally went down with a thud. However, the Hawkeyes can still win the Big Ten and earn a Rose Bowl bid by beating Ohio State next week in Columbus. If the Buckeyes win, they go to Pasadena.

* The winner of the Oregon-Arizona game will own the inside track to the Pac-10's Rose Bowl bid. However, if the Wildcats win that game, USC would be back in the picture with a win over Arizona in the regular-season finale. That race, because of the Ducks' upset loss to Stanford, is suddenly very much in the air.

* Georgia Tech, by pulling out an OT win against Wake Forest, is closing in on the ACC Coastal title and should be the odds-on favorite for the conference's Orange Bowl bid.

* Notre Dame is done, as far as a BCS bowl berth is concerned. And the likelihood of having two Coalition teams in BCS bowls in the same season - for the first time - increases.

And here are the projections for the next BCS Standings:

1. Florida, 2. Alabama, 3. Texas, 4. TCU, 5. Cincinnati, 6. Boise State, 7. Georgia Tech, 8. LSU, 9. Iowa, 10. USC, 11. Ohio State, 12. Oregon, 13. Pittsburgh, 14. Utah, 15. Houston.

This Could Be Shakeup Saturday

All the bowl talk could all vaporize if a few games don't go according to plan. But fear not, with the SEC and Big Ten refs carrying Blackberries to receive instant messages from their respective league offices, the "better" teams will find a way to win at the end.

Trust me.

★★★★★ GAME OF THE WEEK: LSU at Alabama, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS). The past of LSU meets its present. Nick Saban and Les Miles each led the Bayou Tigers to a BCS title, and this game may determine who gets to go for a second ring. For all the talk about a Florida-Alabama SEC title game, LSU still controls its own destiny as a victory puts it on course to win the SEC West. Also a subplot: Alabama's Mark Ingram has a chance to burnish his Heisman credentials.

★★★★ FOUR-STAR GAME: Ohio State at Penn State, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC). The Buckeyes are playing for a Rose Bowl berth and the Nittany Lions are playing for a BCS bowl berth. Those plans, unfortunately, are mutually exclusive. One team's BCS hopes will be squashed in Beaver Stadium. Terrelle Pryor will find out just how country Happy Valley is.

★★★ THREE-STAR GAME: Oregon at Stanford, 3:30 p.m. ET (FSN). The Ducks owned USC like the Trojans have never been owned before. But will they suffer a letdown in the aftermath? The Cardinal need one more win to be bowl eligible, but with Oregon, USC, Cal and Notre Dame still remaining (25-7 combined), they'll take that victory anywhere they can get it.

★★ TWO-STAR GAME: Northwestern at Iowa, noon ET (ESPN). Every week could be the week that Iowa's bubble gets burst. The Hawkeyes needed near miracles to pull out victories the past two weeks and they go to Ohio State for a make-or-break game next week. Will they get caught looking ahead or will their luck finally run out?

★ ONE-STAR GAME: Connecticut at Cincinnati, 8 p.m. ET (ABC). The grieving Huskies are still looking for their first victory after two heart-breaking losses (by an identical score of 28-24). The Bearcats have quite a gauntlet to finish the season, with West Virginia and Pittsburgh still on the schedule. They cannot afford to overlook anybody.

The Season's First BCS Bowl Cast

Let's go first thing first, since I made the pledge to investigate last week's inaccurate projection of the No. 2 team in the BCS Standings.

Well, the findings turned out to be as simple as what the Warren Commission uncovered: A single shooter with a magic bullet. Except that it didn't require the entire weight of the federal government and thousands of pages to state the obvious.

The voters did it, basically, particularly the Harris voters. As of Week 8, Alabama was safely at No. 2, with Texas a good deal behind. But after Texas' impressive victory at Oklahoma State and with Alabama idle, there was a whopping 44-point flip in the Harris Poll, meaning nearly 20 percent of the voters switched their votes. The movement in the Coaches Poll was a bit less, but a 14-point swing still represented a 12 percent change from the previous week.

That is somewhat unprecedented. I had projected Texas to edge ahead of Alabama in the polls, but not to this degree. But I will give the voters credit. This season, they seemed more than ever willing to reconsider their ballots from week to week. And not just for the top two or three slots, but the entire top 10.

Since that's the case, I'll keep that in mind the rest of the season and do better with the projections this week.

Now, onto the most pressing question, something everyone seems to be wondering at this point: What's the BCS Bowl picture look like?

With five weeks still to go in the regular season, and seven teams still remain unbeaten, the BCS bowl picture is far from clear. But there's enough to at least take a stab at. So here it is:

BCS National Championship Game

Florida/Alabama winner vs. Texas

Other contenders (in order of likelihood): Iowa, TCU, Cincinnati, LSU, Boise State, Oregon.

Comment: Florida and Alabama are on a collision course for the conference title game. If neither team stumbles, the winner of that game will be representing the SEC in the BCS title game for the fourth straight season. Texas has a clear sailing toward the Big 12 title game, as it's expected to be a double-digit favorite for all of the remaining games.

Rose Bowl

Ohio State vs. Oregon

Other contenders: Iowa, Penn State; Arizona.

Comment: Ohio State controls its own destiny. Wins over Penn State and Iowa will send the Buckeyes to Pasadena. Penn State needs to beat Ohio State and also Iowa to lose twice. Arizona, believe it or not, still controls its own destiny as well, though it has Oregon, Cal and USC on the schedule. But if the Wildcats run the table, they will be making the school's first-ever Rose Bowl appearance.

Sugar Bowl

Florida/Alabama loser vs. TCU

Other contenders: Boise State, Utah.

Comment: The Sugar Bowl has to take the SEC runner-up with the first pick, or risk losing it to the Orange Bowl. By BCS's rotation rules, it will have the last pick. So that means it'll end up with the top-ranked Coalition team, either TCU or Boise State, or even Utah, which needs to knock off TCU and a Boise State upset loss for a return trip to New Orleans.

Fiesta Bowl

USC vs. Pittsburgh/Cincinnati winner

Other contenders: Notre Dame, Big Ten runner-up, Boise State, Arizona.

Comment: If the Trojans remain unbeaten the rest of the season, expect the Fiesta to snag them with the second pick. If they lose, then a 10-2 Notre Dame team will go here. If both teams lose somewhere along the way, then the Big Ten runner-up will get the nod. If the Fiesta ends up with the Big Ten runner-up, then it might decide to use its second pick on Boise State, even if it doesn't get the Coalition automatic bid.

Orange Bowl

Iowa vs. Georgia Tech (ACC champion)

Other contenders: Penn State, Cincinnati/Pittsburgh winner; Miami.

Comment: Most likely, the Orange will use its pick to take the Big Ten runner-up to go with the ACC champion. If neither USC nor Notre Dame qualified and the Fiesta decides to take the Big Ten's runner-up, then the Orange will go ahead and grab the Big East winner. A scenario also exists for a 10-2 Miami team to claim this spot.