Showing posts with label Nebraska. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nebraska. Show all posts

Friday, December 20, 2013

BCS Review Series: 2001, Nebraska Fiasco Rocks BCS

Part 4 of a series: Over the next few weeks, I will be reviewing each of the 16 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. Here is a look back at who got lucky, who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear throughout December and January.

Part 1: 1998, A New Beginning for College Football

Part 2: 1999, FSU Ends Michael Vick's Quest for Perfection

Part 3: 2000, FSU-Miami Sows Seeds of Controversy

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If the BCS was shaken by the 2000 controversy, then it was rocked by an earthquake in 2001.

Heading into the final weeks of the regular season, it appeared that a Miami-Nebraska showdown in the Rose Bowl would be inevitable. After Nebraska's 20-10 win over previously unbeaten Oklahoma in late October, the 'Canes and Huskers were ranked 1-2 for the next four consecutive weeks, with non-BCS Brigham Young the only other unbeaten team.

Then a series of upsets changed everything.

Heading into their final regular-season game, the Huskers still needed a victory in Boulder to clinch the Big 12 North against two-loss Colorado. But the Buffaloes didn't comply, and thrashed Nebraska, 62-36, in a game that wasn't even that close. Nebraska tumbled to No. 6 in the polls and its national title aspirations seemingly squashed.

After Nebraska's loss, Florida claimed the all-important No. 2 spot. The Gators just needed to beat Tennessee to secure a berth in the SEC championship game. Annually played in the third week of September, the Florida-Tennessee game in 2001 was postponed because of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. The Vols surprised Florida with a 34-32 victory, in what turned out to be Steve Spurrier's final regular-season game as Gators coach.

The victory catapulted Tennessee from No. 6 to No. 2 in the BCS standings after No. 4 Colorado upset No. 3 Texas in the Big XII title game. Now all the Vols had to do was beat three-loss LSU in the SEC title game to secure their second BCS title game appearance in four years.

In the meantime, left on the sideline seething was Oregon. The Ducks, with their only defeat to two-loss Stanford, were No. 3 in both polls. Yet, they were ranked only No. 5 in the BCS standings, behind two-loss Colorado, who had been beaten by Fresno State and also Texas in the regular season. The Buffs, after winning the rematch against the Longhorns, had their issue, too: Somehow, they were ranked No. 4 in the BCS, behind the Nebraska team that had been idle since being annihilated in Boulder.

The BCS would've dodged a bullet if Tennessee could just take care of business against Nick Saban's LSU Tigers, who had been beaten in Knoxville earlier in the season. But LSU didn't oblige, pulling out a 31-20 victory in the SEC title game, completing the frenzied final three weeks of the season with one more upset.

So who was going to play undefeated Miami? Oregon, now No. 2 in both polls, seemed to have the strongest argument. Colorado, with an impressive late-season run but two losses, thought it deserved a shot, too. The team that really shouldn't be in the discussion was Nebraska, which had snuck back up to No. 4 after the spate of late-season upsets.

But it was Nebraska that claimed the No. 2 spot in the final BCS standings, edging out Colorado by five-hundredth (.05) of a percentage point. Oregon, with a low computer average and hampered by its strength-of-schedule rating, was a distant fourth and never had a chance.

The Buffaloes howled for weeks after narrowly losing out. But the truth is that they were even that close to Nebraska only because of the new "quality win" component, added after the 2000 season as make-good for Miami's snub. Had the 2000 formula been applied, Colorado would've been fourth, behind Nebraska by nearly two full points and also Oregon as well.

At the end, the Ducks were really the aggrieved party, and they proved it by destroying Colorado, 38-16, in the Fiesta Bowl. Miami finished its undefeated season in the Rose Bowl with a ho-hum 34-14 victory over Nebraska, universally disparaged as being undeserving. While the Hurricanes celebrated their national championship, the BCS was sent back to the drawing board once again.

Complete Final BCS Standings

RankTeamPoll Avg.ComputerSoSLossQ-WBCS
1Miami11.00180-0.12.62
2Nebraska42.17141-0.57.23
3Colorado34.5022-2.37.28
4Oregon24.83311-0.48.67


Alternative Methods

Using post-2003 formula: 1. Miami, 2. Oregon, 3. Nebraska, 4. Colorado. (Oregon would've been a comfortable No. 2, and there would've been little controversy)

Using 1998-2000 formula: 1. Miami, 2. Nebraska, 3. Oregon, 4. Colorado. (Nebraska would've been well ahead of Oregon)

Likely four-team playoff: Miami vs. Nebraska; Oregon vs. Colorado.

With a slew of upsets in conference championship games, these four teams actually stood far apart from the rest of the pack, even if Nebraska failed to win its division. No. 5 Florida also failed to win its division after losing to Tennessee in the aforementioned SEC East showdown.


Controversies

Other than Nebraska getting into the national championship game in the Rose Bowl, not really. (But that's like saying 'other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?'.) The only other one-loss teams from major conferences, Illinois (Big Ten) and Maryland (ACC), were both throttled in BCS bowl games. No. 5 Florida was the only at-large selection, and as it turned out, sent out coach Spurrier to the NFL with a 56-23 rout of Maryland at the Orange Bowl.


2001 BCS Bowl Matchups

GameScoreAttendanceTV Rating
Rose Bowl*#1 Miami 37, #2 Nebraska 1493,78113.9
Fiesta Bowl#4 Oregon 38, #3 Colorado 1674,11811.3
Orange Bowl#5 Florida 56, #10 Maryland 2373,6409.5
Sugar Bowl#13 LSU 47, #8 Illinois 3477,6888.6


BCS formula review: Wes Colley (of Colley Matrix) and Peter Wolfe were added to the computer ratings, replacing the New York Times and Richard Dunkel. The move ostensibly was to lessen the impact of margin of victory in computer rankings. Of the eight ratings for each team, the highest and lowest were thrown out and the remainder averaged.

Also, a "quality win" component was added to the team's final BCS score total, in response to Miami's being snubbed in 2000. This scheme called for teams to receive bonus points by beating other teams in the final BCS top 15. As a result, Colorado's late-season wins over Nebraska and Texas gave it a boost of 2.3 points, nearly knocking Nebraska out of the No. 2 spot.

Final analysis: The 2001 mess probably should've been a wake-up call for the BCS to completely revamp its formula. Yet, the powers-that-be continued to tinker with knee-jerk and piecemeal "fixes" that inevitably resulted in another controversy. The next season brought a big relief—through no credit to the BCS system—but the calm would prove short-lived.

Monday, December 16, 2013

BCS Review Series: 1999, FSU Dynasty vs. Michael Vick

Part 2 of a series: Over the next few weeks, I will be reviewing each of the 16 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. Here is a look back at who got lucky, who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear throughout December and January.

Part 1: 1998, A New Beginning for College Football

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Give yourself a big pat on the back, BCS. You deserve it. You got it right.

You matched up the only two undefeated major conference teams in the national championship game. Brilliant! Couldn't have done it without ya!

What's was left unsaid was: "Whew!"

Despite the obvious—only Florida State and Virginia Tech emerged from the regular season unbeaten—there were doubts about whether they'd face each other in the Sugar Bowl for the national championship. In the end, Virginia Tech had a barely comfortable margin to hold off one-loss No. 3 Nebraska to play in the title game.

But in the 16-year history of the BCS, 1999 was one of the most uneventful. The Seminoles went wire-to-wire as the No. 1-ranked team, their place in New Orleans never in question. Upset losses by Penn State and Tennessee in the first two weeks of November paved the way for Virginia Tech to seize the No. 2 ranking.

The Hokies, led by redshirt freshman quarterback Michael Vick, had to sweat out the final four weeks of the regular season mostly because of a soft schedule. With strength of schedule still a separate component accounting for nearly one-third of the BCS standings, Virginia Tech had a hard time gaining breathing room from the Cornhuskers, finishing just 1.30 points ahead in the final standings.

Just as in 1998, an undefeated non-BCS conference team finished the regular season unbeaten. And just like Tulane, a 12-0 Marshall team was shut out of a BCS bowl despite finishing No. 12 in the final standings. And one more thing like the Green Wave: The Thundering Herd, quarterbacked by Chad Pennington, completed a perfect season with a victory over BYU, in the Motor City Bowl.

In the Sugar Bowl, Vick rallied the Hokies to take a 29-28 lead at the end of the third quarter. But the Seminoles scored the game's final 18 points in the fourth quarter, giving Bobby Bowden his second and final national championship.


Complete Final BCS Standings

RankTeamPoll Avg.ComputerSoSLossBCS
1Florida State1.01.00602.24
2Virginia Tech2.02.005306.12
3Nebraska3.02.861417.42
4Alabama5.54.571212.11
5Tennessee5.55.5716213.71


Alternative Methods

Using post-2003 BCS formula: 1. Florida State, 2. Virginia Tech.

Likely four-team playoff: Florida State vs. Alabama; Virginia Tech vs. Nebraska.

The top four teams also won their respective conferences, making the selections fairly simple.


Controversies

Kansas State snub II: Well, it wasn't quite as egregious as the one in 1998, but the Wildcats once again earned the dubious honor of being the highest-ranked team not invited to a BCS bowl. K-State, ranked No. 6 with its only loss to Nebraska, was passed up by the Fiesta Bowl (No. 5 Tennessee) and Orange Bowl (No. 8 Michigan). But unlike the previous year, the Wildcats managed to hold it together and win the Holiday Bowl, 24-20, over Washington.

Marshall snub: With today's arrangement, the Herd would've earned an automatic BCS berth. But with strength of schedule a key component in the formula at the time, Marshall was doomed by its 98th-place schedule. The MAC champs, however, would become the last undefeated team not to play in a BCS bowl.


1999 BCS Bowl Matchups


GameScoreAttendanceTV Rating
Sugar Bowl*#1 Florida St. 46, #2 Va. Tech 2976,50317.5
Rose Bowl#7 Wisconsin 17, Stanford 993.73114.1
Orange Bowl#8 Michigan 35, #4 Alabama 34 (OT)70,46111.4
Fiesta Bowl#3 Nebraska 31, #5 Tennessee 2171,5269.6

BCS formula review: Five more computer rankings were added to the formula—Billingsley, Dunkel, Massey, Matthews and Rothman—bringing the total to eight. The lowest ranking among the eight was dropped, and the remaining seven averaged to produce the computer ranking. Also, a "Kansas State clause" was added, guaranteeing any team finishing in the top four a BCS bowl spot, but the Wildcats weren't in position to benefit from it.

Final analysis: Two years in, the BCS appeared to be producing the desired results. The title games matched deserving teams, and the other BCS bowls featured interesting matchups. But this was only the calm before the storm, as raging controversies were about to envelope the BCS, forcing major changes almost annually in the coming years.

Sunday, October 2, 2011

The Guru's BlogPoll (Week 5)

The Guru's BlogPoll ballot, with notes below:

* Alabama, with back-to-back wins over Arkansas and Florida, is now No. 2, jumping over Oklahoma, which beat up another overmatched non-BCS, non-conference foe. The Sooners face Texas next week and maybe that will be a tougher test.

* Wisconsin made the biggest splash this week, rudely welcoming Nebraska to the Big Ten with a solid spanking. The Huskers, thus exposed, took a plunge down the ballot.

* While I'm not completely sold on Michigan, which has won all five games at home, there is a case to be made for the Wolverines to be in the Top 10. Its only close game has come against Notre Dame, which is a decent, if barely not a Top 25 team. We'll find out more about Michigan in the next two weeks when it travels to face Northwestern and Michigan State.

* It was probably a mistake to take Arkansas out of last week's poll after its blowout loss against Alabama. Should've considered the competition.

* New teams that made the ballot this week: Arkansas, Kansas State, Auburn, San Diego State.

* Conference-by-conference tally: SEC (6), Pac-12 (4), Big 12 (4), Big Ten (4), ACC (3), MWC (2), Big East (1), C-USA (1).

Monday, November 22, 2010

The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 13)

Another relatively quiet week as far as the top of the polls is concerned. Nebraska did go down - loudly, we might add, and obnoxiously, to the point where the school's chancellor was none too pleased:


* I'm not willing to move Boise State over TCU just yet. I might change my mind this week depending on the outcome of the Boise State-Nevada game. A lot of voters in other polls are of the same mind, though most of them have already defected to the Broncos over the past two weeks. Oregon and Auburn also have two more chances to make their final arguments, though the Tigers, with a cloud over Cam Newton and doubts about their defense, have the most to prove.

* With one-loss teams having dwindled down to just seven, it may be difficult for the BCS bowls to justify taking an at-large team with multiple losses over an undefeated TCU or Boise. If the Broncos should jump TCU in the final standings, now look for the Orange Bowl to "take one for the team" and pit the Frogs against the ACC champion. It would rather have an SEC team, such as either LSU or Alabama, but it may be too politically dangerous for the BCS.

* Other teams considered: Iowa, Air Force, San Diego State, West Virginia, Northern Illinois.

Saturday, November 28, 2009

The Next Conspiracy

Oklahoma State was exposed as unworthy of a BCS bowl bid. So Boise State is in, right?

With apologies to Lee Corso ... not so fast, my friend!

There is still one scenario where the Broncos would be left out of a BCS bowl bid - if Texas loses to Nebraska in the Big 12 title game, then the Longhorns will gain the final at-large bid over the Broncos. At this point, with six unbeatens and no one-loss teams, it's unlikely that any two-loss team will be chosen over Boise State for the final at-large spot.

But the next conspiracy, if you want to call it that, is on the horizon. With potentially five unbeaten teams heading into the BCS bowls, conveniently only the BCS title game will pit two undefeated teams, denying a claim for a "people's champion." In fact, two of the other three likely unbeatens will be facing a team with at least two losses in BCS bowl games.

This is how the bowl picture will shake out should Texas as expected meets the SEC champion:

BCS Championship Game: Florida/Alabama winner vs. Texas
Sugar Bowl: Florida/Alabama loser vs. Cincinnati/Pittsburgh winner
Fiesta Bowl: Iowa or Penn State vs. Boise State
Orange Bowl: TCU vs. Georgia Tech/Clemson winner
Rose Bowl: Oregon/Oregon State winner vs. Ohio State

If Texas loses to Nebraska:

BCS Championship Game: Florida/Alabama winner vs. Cincinnati or TCU
Sugar Bowl: Florida/Alabama loser vs. TCU or Pittsburgh
Fiesta Bowl: Iowa or Penn State vs. Nebraska
Orange Bowl: Texas vs. Georgia Tech/Clemson winner
Rose Bowl: Oregon/Oregon State winner vs. Ohio State

TCU's blowout victory cemented its claim to be the first team to finish the regular season undefeated, but it came with a price. Because New Mexico is so terrible, the Horned Frogs will take a hit in the computer ratings, so much so that it may cost them a spot in the next BCS standings. It will be close, but the Guru expects Cincinnati to jump TCU for No. 4.

The projected BCS standings:

1. Florida, 2. Alabama, 3. Texas, 4. Cincinnati, 5. TCU, 6. Boise Sate, 7. Oregon, 8. Ohio State, 9. Iowa, 10. Penn State, 11. Georgia Tech, 12. Virginia Tech, 13. Pittsburgh, 14. LSU, 15. BYU.

Thursday, September 17, 2009

There Will Be Blood ... in the Swamp

Which fantastic finish will punctuate Saturday's bloodbath between Florida and Tennessee?

a) With Florida clinging to a 73-3 lead, Urban Meyer calls a timeout to tack on an insurance field goal as time expires.

b) With Tennessee trailing only 59-0, Lane Kiffin calls a timeout to set up a goose-egg-busting field goal from 52 yards out, only to have the Vols kicker iced by a Meyer timeout.

c) Florida scores with a minute left to go up, 61-7, then surprises Tennessee with an onside kick to get the ball back for more.

d) When asked why Florida went for two at the end of the game, already up 52-6, Meyer replies: "Because I couldn't go for three."

The better question is, really: Is Kiffin insane?

If you ask Al Davis, he'd say no. He'd tell you that Kiffin is just "a flat-out liar."



This much we do know: Whatever happens in the Swamp on Saturday, it ain't gonna be pretty for the Vols. And they'll have their head coach to thank, who did everything but spray painting Meyer's lawn with graffiti to get the Gators all riled up.

Kiffin attempted at some damage control this week, but it's too little, too late. If Meyer is anything, a forgiving and magnanimous sort, he's not. Last year alone, Meyer punished Miami by kicking a late field goal with Florida already ahead, 23-3; and paid back Mark Richt by calling three timeouts at the end of the game to let Georgia soak in their 49-10 loss.

Florida will flex its muscles on Saturday. The top-ranked Gators, after sort of taking it easy on two overmatched opponents to open the season, are ready to hit somebody, hard. The Vols come to Gainesville just in time as Florida's live tackling dummies.

Can't wait to see that post-game handshake that should make the Bill Belichick-Eric Mangini man-hug seem sincere. Meyer's parting words to Kiffin?

"Welcome to the SEC ... now get the F(... not Florida) out of my house."

★★★★★ GAME OF THE WEEK: Nebraska at Virginia Tech, 3:30 p.m. ET. The Florida-Tennessee death match will be great for drama, but it won't be much of a football game. This game, however, will shed a lot of light on just how legit either the Big 12 (North) or the ACC is. Virginia Tech is supposed to be the standard bearer for the ACC - it needs a good performance to wipe away the growing doubt about the conference's BCS fitness.

★★★★ FOUR-STAR GAME: Florida State at BYU, 7 p.m. ET. The Seminoles were a minute away from losing to I-AA Jacksonville State and going 0-2. Now they're visiting Provo against a BYU team that may contend for the BCS national championship. The Cougars get another shot at impressing a national audience in their last major nonconference tilt. A blowout win will solidify their perch in the top 10.

★★★ THREE-STAR GAME: Boise State at Fresno State, 9 p.m. ET. This may be the toughest game remaining for the Broncos in their quest for a third unbeaten regular season in the last four years. Last year, Boise blew out Fresno, 61-10, but this time it won't be as easy down in the San Joaquin Valley. The Broncos still must go to Bowling Green and Tulsa, but neither place is as intimidating for a visitor as Bulldog Stadium.

★★ TWO-STAR GAME: Tulsa at Oklahoma, 3:30 p.m. ET. One Conference USA team pulled off a shocker in the state of Oklahoma last week. Will it happen again? In fact, this game may be for the bragging rights in the Sooner State. The Golden Hurricane are playing for their fifth straight bowl berth, and with a victory over Sam Bradford-less OU, the path opens for a BCS bid.

★ ONE-STAR GAME: Cincinnati at Oregon State, 6:45 p.m. ET. This game has huge ramifications for the Big East, already denigrated as undeserving of its automatic BCS berth. If the Bearcats, the highest (and only) ranked Big East team, can't handle the middle-of-the-Pac Beavers, the conference will be the poster child of what's wrong with the BCS all season long.

Monday, July 7, 2008

Ten Years of BCS: 2001

The Guru's Note: Beginning in June, the Guru will publish a review of each of the 10 seasons since the Bowl Championship Series came into existence in 1998. In this series -- Ten Years of BCS -- the Guru will examine the results from these seasons -- who got lucky and who got robbed, what could've been, what should've been and other controversies of the day. The series will appear weekly leading up to the 2008 season.

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If the BCS was shaken by the 2000 controversy, then it was rocked by an earthquake in 2001.

Heading into the final weeks of the regular season, it appeared that a Miami-Nebraska showdown in the Rose Bowl would be inevitable. After Nebraska's 20-10 win over previously unbeaten Oklahoma, Miami and Nebraska were ranked 1-2 for the next four consecutive weeks, with non-BCS Brigham Young the only other unbeaten team.

Then a series of upsets changed everything.

Heading into their final regular-season game, the Huskers still needed a victory in Boulder to clinch the Big 12 North against two-loss Colorado. But the Buffaloes didn't comply, and thrashed Nebraska, 62-36, in a game that wasn't even that close. Nebraska tumbled to No. 6 in the polls and its national title aspirations seemingly squashed.

After Nebraska's loss, Florida claimed the all-important No. 2 spot. The Gators just needed to beat Tennessee to secure a berth in the SEC championship game. Annually played in the third week of September, the Florida-Tennessee game in 2001 was postponed because of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. The Vols surprised Florida with a 34-32 victory, in what turned out to be Steve Spurrier's final regular-season game as Gators coach.

The victory catapulted Tennessee from No. 6 to No. 2 in the BCS standings after No. 4 Colorado upset No. 3 Texas in the Big XII title game. Now all the Vols had to do was beat LSU in the SEC title game to secure their second BCS title game appearance in four years.

In the meantime, left on the sideline seething was Oregon. The Ducks, with its only defeat to two-loss Stanford, were No. 3 in both polls. Yet, they were ranked only No. 5 in the BCS standings, behind two-loss Colorado, who had been beaten by Fresno State and also Texas in the regular season. The Buffs, after winning the rematch against the Longhorns, had their issue, too: Somehow, they were ranked No. 4 in the BCS, behind the Nebraska team that had been idle since being annihilated in Boulder.

The BCS would've dodged a bullet if Tennessee could just take care of business against three-loss LSU, which had been beaten in Knoxville earlier in the season. But the Tigers didn't oblige, pulling out a 31-20 victory in the SEC title game, completing the frenzied final three weeks of the season with one more upset.

So who was going to play undefeated Miami? Oregon, now No. 2 in both polls, seemed to have the strongest argument. Colorado, with an impressive late-season run but two losses, wanted to have a say, too. The team that really shouldn't be in the discussion was Nebraska, which had snuck back up to No. 4 after the spate of late-season upsets.

But it was Nebraska that claimed the No. 2 spot in the final BCS standings, edging out Colorado by five-hundredth (.05) of a percentage point. Oregon, with a low computer average and hampered by its strength-of-schedule rating, was a distant fourth and never had a shot.

The Buffaloes howled for weeks after narrowly losing out. But the truth is that they were even that close to Nebraska only because of the new "quality win" component, added after the 2000 season as make-good to Miami's snub. Had the 2000 formula been applied, Colorado would've been fourth, behind Nebraska by nearly two full points and also Oregon as well.

At the end, the Ducks were really the aggrieved party, and they proved it by destroying Colorado, 38-16, in the Fiesta Bowl. Miami finished its undefeated season with a ho-hum 34-14 victory over Nebraska, universally disparaged as being undeserving. While the Hurricanes celebrated their national championship, the BCS was sent back to the drawing board once again.


Final BCS Standings: 1. Miami, 2. Nebraska, 3. Colorado, 4. Oregon.

Alternative Methods:

Using present day formula: 1. Miami, 2. Oregon, 3. Colorado, 4. Nebraska. (Oregon would've been a comfortable No. 2, and there would've been little controversy)

Using 1998-2000 formula: 1. Miami, 2. Nebraska, 3. Oregon, 4. Colorado. (Nebraska would've been well ahead of Oregon)

Using human polls only: 1. Miami, 2. Oregon, 3. Colorado, 4. Nebraska.

Plus-One: Miami vs. Nebraska; Oregon vs. Colorado.

Controversy:

Other than Nebraska getting into the national championship game in the Rose Bowl, not really. (But that's like saying a car hit my wife and then ran over my dog, but other than that, it's been a great day.) The only other one-loss teams from major conferences, Illinois (Big Ten) and Maryland (ACC), were both throttled in BCS bowl games. No. 5 Florida was the only at-large selection, and as it turned out, sent out coach Spurrier to the NFL with a 56-23 rout of Maryland at the Orange Bowl.

BCS Formula Review: Wes Colley (of the Colley Matrix) and Peter Wolfe were added to the computer ratings, replacing the New York Times and Richard Dunkel. The move ostensibly was to lessen the impact of margin of victory in computer rankings. Of the eight ratings for each team, the highest and lowest were thrown out and the remainder averaged.

Also, a "quality win" component was added to the team's final total, in response to Miami's being snubbed in 2000. This scheme called for teams to receive bonus points by beating other teams in the final BCS top 15. As a result, Colorado's late-season wins over Nebraska and Texas gave it a boost of 2.3 points, nearly knocking Nebraska out of the No. 2 spot.

Analysis: The 2001 mess probably should've been a wake-up call for the BCS to completely revamp its formula. Yet, the powers-that-be continued to scrutinize the computers and margin of victory as the problem areas, overlooking the real issues that made the cumbersome system dysfunctional. The next season brought a big relief -- through no credit to the BCS system -- but the calm would prove short-lived.

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