Saturday, November 28, 2009

The Next Conspiracy

Oklahoma State was exposed as unworthy of a BCS bowl bid. So Boise State is in, right?

With apologies to Lee Corso ... not so fast, my friend!

There is still one scenario where the Broncos would be left out of a BCS bowl bid - if Texas loses to Nebraska in the Big 12 title game, then the Longhorns will gain the final at-large bid over the Broncos. At this point, with six unbeatens and no one-loss teams, it's unlikely that any two-loss team will be chosen over Boise State for the final at-large spot.

But the next conspiracy, if you want to call it that, is on the horizon. With potentially five unbeaten teams heading into the BCS bowls, conveniently only the BCS title game will pit two undefeated teams, denying a claim for a "people's champion." In fact, two of the other three likely unbeatens will be facing a team with at least two losses in BCS bowl games.

This is how the bowl picture will shake out should Texas as expected meets the SEC champion:

BCS Championship Game: Florida/Alabama winner vs. Texas
Sugar Bowl: Florida/Alabama loser vs. Cincinnati/Pittsburgh winner
Fiesta Bowl: Iowa or Penn State vs. Boise State
Orange Bowl: TCU vs. Georgia Tech/Clemson winner
Rose Bowl: Oregon/Oregon State winner vs. Ohio State

If Texas loses to Nebraska:

BCS Championship Game: Florida/Alabama winner vs. Cincinnati or TCU
Sugar Bowl: Florida/Alabama loser vs. TCU or Pittsburgh
Fiesta Bowl: Iowa or Penn State vs. Nebraska
Orange Bowl: Texas vs. Georgia Tech/Clemson winner
Rose Bowl: Oregon/Oregon State winner vs. Ohio State

TCU's blowout victory cemented its claim to be the first team to finish the regular season undefeated, but it came with a price. Because New Mexico is so terrible, the Horned Frogs will take a hit in the computer ratings, so much so that it may cost them a spot in the next BCS standings. It will be close, but the Guru expects Cincinnati to jump TCU for No. 4.

The projected BCS standings:

1. Florida, 2. Alabama, 3. Texas, 4. Cincinnati, 5. TCU, 6. Boise Sate, 7. Oregon, 8. Ohio State, 9. Iowa, 10. Penn State, 11. Georgia Tech, 12. Virginia Tech, 13. Pittsburgh, 14. LSU, 15. BYU.


Anonymous said...

I'm afraid you're right about Cincy jumping TCU, especially with Clemson's loss. But, assuming Texas wins the Big XII and goes to the NC, what happens in the BCS if Clemson wins the ACC? Surely they wouldn't re-match Clemson-TCU in the Orange, right?

Anonymous said...

Actually, I bet most crusaders of the "little guy's" plight would rather have Boise beat up on one overrated BCS conference team, while TCU beats up on another. They'll still go around regarding Boise or TCU as the "true" champ just like they do with Utah last year. Actually, many will just consider it a 3-4 way tie.

So anyway, give us the matchups if we still had the bowl system we had pre-bcs with all the conference affiliations. Then we can see if we like that set-up better.

Ben Prather said...

Even if Cincinnati does not manage to jump TCU this week, they will next week. This only really matters if Nebraska beats Texas.

Would TCU not be attractive to the Fiesta Bowl to replace Texas if they win? With SWC history and a previous national championship (70 years old now) they have a history and fan base in easy proximity.

Oh, and they are undefeated.

Also, doesn't the Orange Bowl have a history with the Big East? I know the tie-in has ended since Miami left, but wouldn't they take the Big East winner if given a chance?

If the choice of the final at-large comes to the Sugar Bowl's final selection wouldn't Virginia Tech or even Miami be potentially more attractive than Boise State?

PeteP said...

Given that TCU will not lose any human votes, the only way TCU falls is the computers.

Now, looking at last week's computers, TCU would have to fall another .03 in behind in the computer average.

However, Cincy played a bad team as well, 3-8 Illinois.

Cincy and TCU are 4 and 5 respective in the Colley and that is unlikely to change.

Same in Anderson and will not change this week.

Wolfe may actually drop Cincy one to 4.

Cincy could also drop in Massey.

In Billingsely, neither TCU or Cincy is likely to move above the top three, nor with either change position.

Sagarin is already out, and Cincy lost a spot is at 3 (and TCU at 4)

So, unless Cincy makes a great move in the human polls, Cincy stays behind TCU, at least for this week.

Now, TCU really needs to Pitt to show up and take Cincy out to secure its position.

Cody said...

I really don't think that they would rematch TCU and Clemson... that would be very uninteresting. The bowls want a game that is going to attract lots of attention and that match-up will not. I see TCU playing in the Sugar Bowl against Florida/Alabama loser.

PeteP said...

Sorry, Guru, love your work, but I am very glad to see TCU actually gain against Cincy this week.....

Anonymous said...

Hey, Guru.... Aren't you completely wrong? Only one Non-BCS school may receive an At Large bid, so only Boise St. or TCU can make a BCS bowl..

The rules actually read: No more than one such team from Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, and the Western Athletic Conference shall earn an automatic berth in any year.

You need to check your facts.

Anonymous said...

@ Anonymous 6:00 pm:

The rule you quoted only means that TCU and Boise cannot both be ENTITLED to a BCS slot. It does not mean that TCU and Boise cannot both be eligible and indeed selected for BCS slots.

In fact, right after the part you quote, the official rules explicitly say: "(Note: a second team may be eligible for at-large eligibility as noted below.) If two or more teams from those conferences satisfy the provisions for an automatic berth, then the team with the highest finish in the final BCS Standings will receive the automatic berth, and the remaining team or teams will be considered for at-large selection if it meets the criteria."

Anonymous said...

"There is still one scenario where the Broncos would be left out of a BCS bowl bid - if Texas loses to Nebraska in the Big 12 title game, then the Longhorns will gain the final at-large bid over the Broncos. At this point, with six unbeatens and no one-loss teams, it's unlikely that any two-loss team will be chosen over Boise State for the final at-large spot."

Excuse me? Iowa and Penn State both have 2 losses. Neither should make a BCS bowl over an unbeaten Boise. Moreover, the prescribed picking order for the BCS bowls means that if a 1-loss Texas is selected for the Orange Bowl, you can't accurately say that Texas will have gained "the final at-large bid."

If Nebraska beats Texas, the NCG gets the UF/Bama winner and whoever is the BCS #2 - let's say Cincy. That means the Sugar Bowl gets 1st pick at a replacement. They will take the UF/Bama loser. The Orange (already committed to the ACC champ) picks next. I assume they'll take Texas. The Fiesta (already committed to Nebraska in this scenario) picks next, followed by the Sugar for its final slot. One of them has to take TCU, and that would leave Boise and nothing but teams with 2+ losses eligible for the final slot. Boise is not entitled by the rules to that slot ahead of a 2-loss team such as Iowa or Penn State, but it would be an absolute crime for them to lose out to a 2-loss team.

Mike R said...

Cincinnati should be #4 if they beat Pitt, since they already beat Oregon State who could be playing in a BCS bowl as well.

Anonymous said...

Assuming Texas and Pittsburgh win, what are the odds of a one-loss Cincinnati team getting a BCS at-large invite over an unbeaten Boise State?

Jonathan said...

My guess would be that the odds are pretty bad. I can't see Cincinnati-with-nothing-to-play-for being any bigger of a draw than Boise-St.-the-little-guy.

OT said...

You are completely wrong about this one.

Can you say "backroom deal"?

The Corn Chips Siesta Bowl took a "bullet" for the BCS system and paired TCU with Boise in order to segregate them from playing the 6 power conference teams.

The Guru said...

@OT- You might be onto something there. I am beginning to come around to your view.

This way, whoever wins this game gains no credibility. This may well be the real conspiracy.

OT said...

Think about this:

The BCS Standings as of December 6 were:

1. Alabama
2. Texas
3. Cincinnati
4. TCU
5. Florida
6. Boise State
7. Oregon
8. Ohio State
9. Georgia Tech
10. Iowa

The selection process went down as follows:

1. Sugar Bowl used 1st replacement pick to take #5 Florida

2. Fiesta Bowl used 2nd replacement pick to take #4 TCU

3. Orange Bowl used 1st regular pick to take #10 Iowa

4. Fiesta Bowl used 2nd regular pick to take #6 Boise State

5. Sugar Bowl was left with #3 Cincinnati

Interesting "selection" process, don't you think?

You tell me whether the "selection" process was honest, or it was "pre-determined" as part of a "backroom" deal to segregate TCU and Boise State in a bowl to keep them from playing any of the 6 power conference teams.