OK, Mountaineers fans: The Guru knows you're unhappy that West Virginia is relegated to the also-ran part of the Rooting Guide, and you have many righteous reasons to be upset. But here's the reality check: There is just about no way that WVU would make it to the national championship game.
Why? Simple, the computers. Besides Richard Billingsley, whose rankings are almost always the oddballs and tend to favor traditional powers (West Virginia among them), the computers uniformly have the Mountaineers between 10th and 12th. After losing last week, both Boston College and Arizona State still stay well in front of WVU on the computers -- as do all BCS conference teams with no more than one loss.
That makes WVU's quest a near-impossible one. Any team currently in the top 10 with zero or one loss will probably stay in the top 10 even after another defeat. Ohio State, even with a loss to Michigan, most likely will still be ahead of West Virginia in the BCS standings. This is now a mathematical quagmire for the Mountaineers, whose best hope for 2007 appears to be the Big East championship and a BCS bowl berth.
With that, we'll begin the second part of the Rooting Guide:
7. West Virginia (7-1)
Key games: Nov. 8 vs. Louisville; Nov.17 at Cincinnati; Nov. 24 vs. Connecticut
BCS bowl prospect: Controls its own destiny. If West Virginia wins out, it will claim the Big East championship and an automatic berth to a BCS bowl game, possibly the Rose Bowl.
Needs help from: No one, right now -- unless you're still thinking about the national championship, then the Mountaineers need everybody in front of them to lose, some twice.
8. Boston College (8-1)
Key games: Nov. 17 at Clemson; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: National championship out of the window, the Eagles will have to refocus on winning the ACC. Next week's game at Clemson will probably decide who wins the ACC Atlantic. And then it's onto Jacksonville for the ACC title game against the Virginia-Virginia Tech winner.
Needs help from: Wake Forest. A victory by the Demon Deacons over Clemson this week will give the Eagles a little cushion in the division. A 10-3 BC that loses in the ACC title game, though, most likely will not get a BCS at-large bid.
9. Arizona State (8-1)
Key games: Nov. 22 vs. USC; Dec. 1 vs. Arizona
BCS bowl prospect: The Sun Devils might have lost their shot at the national title game, but a Pac-10 championship, with it a Rose Bowl berth, is still very much in play. By winning its remaining three games, ASU will no do worse than Pac-10 co-champ and a Fiesta Bowl berth.
Needs help from: Oregon. A loss by the Ducks will put the Sun Devils back in the driver's seat in the Pac-10 race and their first Rose Bowl appearance since Jake Plummer was their quarterback.
10. Georgia (7-2)
Key games: Nov. 10 vs. Auburn; Nov. 17 vs. Kentucky
BCS bowl prospect: By winning its remaining games, Georgia is all but assured of a BCS at-large berth even if it fails to earn a spot in the SEC championship game. If the Bulldogs finish the regular season 10-2, they'll likely earn a trip to the Sugar Bowl should LSU advances to the BCS title game.
Needs help from: Tennessee. If the Vols remain unbeaten the rest of the way, they will have the tiebreaker edge over Georgia in the SEC East, by virtue of their victory over the Bulldogs.
11. Virginia Tech (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 24 at Virginia; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A victory over archrival Virginia will earn the Hokies a trip to Jacksonville, most likely against Boston College. An Orange Bowl berth comes with the ACC title.
Needs help from: No one, really. An at-large berth is all but out of the question for any 3-loss team at this point.
12. Michigan (8-2)
Key game: Nov. 17 vs. Ohio State
BCS bowl prospect: Back on Sept. 8, this seems an unlikely spot for the Wolverines. But it's now a one-game season for Michigan, just like it almost always is: Win, a trip to the Rose Bowl and Big Ten title. Lose, nothing (OK, maybe a trip to Orlando, but, in the eyes of Michigan fans, nothing).
Needs help from: No one.
13. Connecticut (8-1)
Key games: Nov. 10 at Cincinnati; Nov. 24 at West Virginia
BCS bowl prospect: This should be basketball season in Storrs by now, but the football Huskies still have all the marbles to play for. Most likely, the Big East title will be decided in Morgantown. A two-loss UConn also might have a shot at a BCS at-large berth.
Needs help from: West Virginia. A Mountaineers loss will put the Huskies in the cat-bird seat, with a two-game lead, in the Big East race.
14. Texas (8-2)
Key game: Nov. 23 at Texas A&M
BCS bowl prospect: Unless Oklahoma implodes, the Longhorns won't win the Big 12 South. That said, a 10-2 Texas is very much in the hunt for an at-large berth.
Needs help from: Oklahoma. Like it or not, 'Horns fans must root for OU in the Big 12 title game. An OU victory gives Texas a shot at a BCS bowl berth. An OU loss means the at-large bid will end up with the Sooners.
15. Florida (6-3)
Key game: Nov. 10 at South Carolina
BCS bowl prospect: Even with three losses, the Gators are not quite dead yet. If fact, it's possible for Florida to earn a BCS bowl berth with an 8-5 record. Here's how ...
Needs help from: Tennessee, Georgia. ... should both Tennessee and Georgia lose one (but not more) of their remaining games, and Florida beats the Ol' Ball Coach, then the Gators win the SEC East even if it falls on its face against Florida Atlantic and Florida State. Considering the remaining schedules for both the Vols and Bulldogs, it's not at all improbable.
16. Hawai'i (8-0)
Key games: Nov. 23 vs. Boise State; Dec. 1 vs. Washington
BCS bowl prospect: Fading but still breathing. It goes without saying that the Warriors need to go undefeated. But besides that, they might have hit their high-water mark two weeks ago at No. 14 and they're now sliding back.
Needs help from: Michigan, Connecticut and Boise State. A Michigan win over Ohio State would be devastating for Hawai'i, for that would get the Big Ten a second BCS berth and keep Hawai'i out of the Top 12, where it needs to be for a guaranteed berth. Likewise, a UConn win at West Virginia might hand the Big East two berths. Finally, Hawai'i needs Boise State to be 10-1 when it comes to the islands -- that will constitute the only game against a ranked team that the Warriors play all season.
17. USC (7-2)
Key games: Nov. 10 at California; Nov. 22 at Arizona State
BCS bowl prospect: The Trojans' run as the Pac-10 champ might be over, but they are very much alive for a sixth straight BCS bowl berth, extending their own record. By finishing 10-2 with a win at ASU will assure USC a BCS bowl berth, maybe even a third straight trip to the Rose Bowl, should Oregon move on to the BCS title game.
Needs help from: Oregon. Well, depends on what you're looking for. If the Ducks lose two of their final three, USC can still win the conference. Since that's not likely, Trojans fans are better off rooting for Oregon to get into the title game so USC can get back to Pasadena.
19. Virginia (8-2)
Key games: Nov. 24 vs. Virginia Tech; Dec. 1 ACC championship
BCS bowl prospect: A win over the Hokies will give the Cavs the division title and a spot in the ACC title game. A win in Jacksonville will earn them an Orange Bowl berth.
Needs help from: No one.
21. Clemson (7-2)
Key games: Nov. 10 vs. Wake Forest; Nov. 17 vs. Boston College
BCS bowl prospect: Believe it or not, the Tigers control the ACC Atlantic race, thanks to Papa Bowden. FSU's victory over BC last week allows Clemson a clear path to the ACC title game, needing just home wins over Wake and BC.
Needs help from: No one.
24. Tennessee (6-3)
Key games: Nov. 10 vs. Arkansas; Nov. 24 at Kentucky
BCS bowl prospect: The Vols are the lowest-ranked team that control their own BCS destiny. Win their remaining four games, including the SEC title game, they will be in the Sugar Bowl. Lose just once, it can all go kaput.
Needs help from: No one and everyone. There are too many tiebreaker scenarios to cover here, so for its own sake, Tennessee had better keep winning games.
25. Kentucky (6-3)
Key games: Nov. 17 at Georgia; Nov. 24 vs. Tennessee
BCS bowl prospect: Kentucky still has a shot to win the SEC East, and it's not necessarily a longshot. It all depends on what happens this weekend's game involving ...
Needs help from: Florida. If the Gators lose at South Carolina, then Kentucky can take the division and play in its first SEC title game by winning their remaining games. If Florida wins, it's all over for the Wildcats.Hwa
Showing posts with label Boston College. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Boston College. Show all posts
Thursday, November 8, 2007
Thursday, November 1, 2007
Easy Does It
With five weeks still left in this amazingly combustible 2007 season, the gnashing of the teeth has already started. In three weeks, one of the two BCS championship spots may be claimed and there's not a damn thing anybody can do anything about it.
If you're unhappy with Boston College possibly playing for the national title, then you should be mad as hell that Ohio State appears to be a mortal lock for a return visit to the BCS championship game.
Yep, with only three games remaining on their schedule, the Buckeyes just need to stay unbeaten and then wait out 50 days to redeem themselves for the title game flop a year ago against Florida.
The question is: Do they deserve to be in New Orleans?
Ohio State is 9-0, having won every game by at least a touchdown. The Buckeyes' stout defense has surrendered more than 10 points just once in nine games. They trailed at the half only once and were never behind in the fourth quarter in any of their games.
So they should be No. 1, right?
Nope. Not if you looked at whom they have beaten. Right now, the reason that they're atop the BCS standings has more to do with the gray helmets, scarlet uniforms and the ghost of Woody Hayes than anything else.
Ohio State has run roughshod through unarguably the weakest of the Big Six BCS conferences. According to the rankings of the six BCS computers, this is the mean score for each conference:
1. SEC -- 1.17
2. Pac-10 -- 2.83
3. ACC -- 3.83
4. Big XII -- 3.83
5. Big East -- 4.17
6. Big Ten -- 5.00
While it should surprise no one that the SEC and the Pac-10 are by far the toughest conferences, what's even more revealing is by how much the Big Ten trails the other conferences. Four of the six computers rank the Big Ten dead last among the BCS conferences.
Besides playing in a weak conference, Ohio State's non-conference schedule is also a farce. The Buckeyes beat two MAC teams -- Akron (3-5) and Kent State (3-6), the Pac-10's last-place team Washington (2-6) and I-AA Youngstown State (5-4). Ohio State's strength of schedule rating ranges from a best of 43 to a worst of 103 among 119 Division I-A teams.
Of the four unbeaten BCS conference teams, only Kansas's schedule is as forgiving as Ohio State's. Boston College and Arizona State have played -- and defeated -- far better competition. Among one-loss teams, LSU and Oregon have traveled a much more difficult road than Ohio State did.
The computers seem to get that, as Ohio State is far from a consensus No. 1. But the human voters have proved to be suckers for the sweater vest mystique. The Buckeyes received all but four of the 60 first-place votes in the coaches poll and were the unanimous No. 1 in the latest Harris poll.
At this point of the season, the human voters are unlikely to bump down the Buckeyes without them losing a game. And since they account for two-thirds of the BCS total, you can write them into the title game barring a little Lloyd Carr magic on Nov. 17 at the Big House.
But don't hold your breath.
This Week's BCS Buster Games:
5-Star: Arizona State at Oregon -- It would be chic to say that this is for the Pac-10 championship. And it would be wrong -- though the winner of this game will have the inside track to no worse than a Rose Bowl berth. UCLA, which will host both teams later, has a chance to play the spoiler's role.
4-Star: LSU at Alabama -- This game will be even better next year when it comes to Baton Rouge. For now, Les Miles will have an opportunity to emerge from Nick Saban's considerable shadow. A loss not only knocks the Bayou Bengals out of national championship contention, it might even deny them a place in the SEC title game.
3-Star: Florida State at Boston College -- The Eagles have a pretty difficult finishing stretch, but this game shouldn't give them too much trouble. The Seminoles are a program at a crossroads, with a legendary coach refusing to step aside as everything crumbles around him. Matt Ryan will use this to polish his Heisman resume.
2-Star: Wisconsin at Ohio State -- If Ohio State is a paper tiger, then Wisconsin is a paper Siamese. The Badgers are just another one of the Big Ten pretenders, having feasted on feeble competition to get their 7-2 record. The Buckeyes seem set to win their 20th straight conference game, which would set a Big Ten record.
1-Star: Texas A&M at Oklahoma -- The Sooners' slim hopes of reaching the title game rest with winning their remaining games, as well as a strong record for Kansas or Missouri, whichever makes it to the Big XII title game -- and lots of other teams losing. If this sounds like too much needs to happen for OU, it is.
If you're unhappy with Boston College possibly playing for the national title, then you should be mad as hell that Ohio State appears to be a mortal lock for a return visit to the BCS championship game.
Yep, with only three games remaining on their schedule, the Buckeyes just need to stay unbeaten and then wait out 50 days to redeem themselves for the title game flop a year ago against Florida.
The question is: Do they deserve to be in New Orleans?
Ohio State is 9-0, having won every game by at least a touchdown. The Buckeyes' stout defense has surrendered more than 10 points just once in nine games. They trailed at the half only once and were never behind in the fourth quarter in any of their games.
So they should be No. 1, right?
Nope. Not if you looked at whom they have beaten. Right now, the reason that they're atop the BCS standings has more to do with the gray helmets, scarlet uniforms and the ghost of Woody Hayes than anything else.
Ohio State has run roughshod through unarguably the weakest of the Big Six BCS conferences. According to the rankings of the six BCS computers, this is the mean score for each conference:
1. SEC -- 1.17
2. Pac-10 -- 2.83
3. ACC -- 3.83
4. Big XII -- 3.83
5. Big East -- 4.17
6. Big Ten -- 5.00
While it should surprise no one that the SEC and the Pac-10 are by far the toughest conferences, what's even more revealing is by how much the Big Ten trails the other conferences. Four of the six computers rank the Big Ten dead last among the BCS conferences.
Besides playing in a weak conference, Ohio State's non-conference schedule is also a farce. The Buckeyes beat two MAC teams -- Akron (3-5) and Kent State (3-6), the Pac-10's last-place team Washington (2-6) and I-AA Youngstown State (5-4). Ohio State's strength of schedule rating ranges from a best of 43 to a worst of 103 among 119 Division I-A teams.
Of the four unbeaten BCS conference teams, only Kansas's schedule is as forgiving as Ohio State's. Boston College and Arizona State have played -- and defeated -- far better competition. Among one-loss teams, LSU and Oregon have traveled a much more difficult road than Ohio State did.
The computers seem to get that, as Ohio State is far from a consensus No. 1. But the human voters have proved to be suckers for the sweater vest mystique. The Buckeyes received all but four of the 60 first-place votes in the coaches poll and were the unanimous No. 1 in the latest Harris poll.
At this point of the season, the human voters are unlikely to bump down the Buckeyes without them losing a game. And since they account for two-thirds of the BCS total, you can write them into the title game barring a little Lloyd Carr magic on Nov. 17 at the Big House.
But don't hold your breath.
This Week's BCS Buster Games:
5-Star: Arizona State at Oregon -- It would be chic to say that this is for the Pac-10 championship. And it would be wrong -- though the winner of this game will have the inside track to no worse than a Rose Bowl berth. UCLA, which will host both teams later, has a chance to play the spoiler's role.
4-Star: LSU at Alabama -- This game will be even better next year when it comes to Baton Rouge. For now, Les Miles will have an opportunity to emerge from Nick Saban's considerable shadow. A loss not only knocks the Bayou Bengals out of national championship contention, it might even deny them a place in the SEC title game.
3-Star: Florida State at Boston College -- The Eagles have a pretty difficult finishing stretch, but this game shouldn't give them too much trouble. The Seminoles are a program at a crossroads, with a legendary coach refusing to step aside as everything crumbles around him. Matt Ryan will use this to polish his Heisman resume.
2-Star: Wisconsin at Ohio State -- If Ohio State is a paper tiger, then Wisconsin is a paper Siamese. The Badgers are just another one of the Big Ten pretenders, having feasted on feeble competition to get their 7-2 record. The Buckeyes seem set to win their 20th straight conference game, which would set a Big Ten record.
1-Star: Texas A&M at Oklahoma -- The Sooners' slim hopes of reaching the title game rest with winning their remaining games, as well as a strong record for Kansas or Missouri, whichever makes it to the Big XII title game -- and lots of other teams losing. If this sounds like too much needs to happen for OU, it is.
Monday, October 29, 2007
Only Eight Left
With the avalanche of upsets coming to a halt, the 2007 BCS picture has become a little bit more clear following the release of the new BCS standings. Eight teams, each with no or one loss, still have a shot at reaching the BCS championship game in New Orleans. The rest of them are simply playing for a share from the big bag of money.
Before we get to the business at hand, the Guru would just like to say this: OK, so I gloated a bit after nailing the release of the first 2007 BCS standings. And this week, I had the top nine in the exact order ... but you're not gonna hear me crow -- because it's just so unbecoming.
And there's this little affair of a week ago, when I admittedly whiffed on a couple of projections, specifically projecting LSU to top Boston College for No. 2. The reason for those calculation errors is:
a) I had a bad case of flu while attending a wedding
b) My traveling laptop didn't have all the important data
c) I hurried so I can get to the next round of golf
d) The whole thing is just a scam: The Guru was just throwing darts on a board anyway
I could've picked one or all of the above, but I will instead blame the voters. The projection business is part mathematics and part psychology. While I can pretty consistently nail down the computer rankings, getting the human votes right is much, much harder. Think about it: Between the coaches poll and Harris poll, there are 174 potential voters, each with a mind of his own. They might do what's expected of a rational human being, or they might vote Troy as the 21st best team in the country, as one did this past week.
The point is this: I expected quite a few more voters to cast their ballots for LSU vis-a-vis Boston College, and they thought otherwise. And at this point of the season, the voters will decide everything. Yes, just like last year, when the voters mandated that there would be no rematch between Ohio State and Michigan, they will let us know whom they want in the BCS title game.
Right now, it looks like Ohio State and Boston College.
With mostly only conference games remaining for every team, it's unlikely that you'll see a seismic shift in the computer rankings if a team keeps winning. This is why November is the time to score style points. While computers are not allowed to use margin of victory in their formulas, the voters can freely interpret the meaning of the outcome of each game. Win impressively, you might siphon a few votes from your competitors. Win barely, you'll be punished.
For now, these are the resumes of the Elite Eight:
For sure, one of those teams will be eliminated this weekend, as Oregon and Arizona State clash in Eugene. The loser will not have a chance to play for the national title, and probably be out of the Pac-10 race as well. And then, on Nov. 17, two huge games involving the current Nos. 1 and 2 will either cement their places in New Orleans, or blow the whole thing wide open.
Finally, as promised, this is the Guru's take on Hawai'i: Not good, but improving somewhat. The Rainbow Warriors currently occupy the 14th spot in the BCS rankings, two below what's needed for a guaranteed berth. Hawai'i's computer rankings are 14, 26, 31, 33, 47 and 54. So far, the Warriors are getting no points in the computer ratings and it looks as though they might get just a tad at the end of the season.
So again, it will come down to the human voters. Assuming Hawai'i gets .100 in the computers, it will need to rank about a consensus eighth or ninth in the human polls to pull it off. It will test the willingness of human voters to put a team that so far has played the easiest schedule in all of Division I-A in the Top 10. To me, that seems unlikely.
Then again, if I can divine the intentions of every human voter, then I'm in the wrong business.
Before we get to the business at hand, the Guru would just like to say this: OK, so I gloated a bit after nailing the release of the first 2007 BCS standings. And this week, I had the top nine in the exact order ... but you're not gonna hear me crow -- because it's just so unbecoming.
And there's this little affair of a week ago, when I admittedly whiffed on a couple of projections, specifically projecting LSU to top Boston College for No. 2. The reason for those calculation errors is:
a) I had a bad case of flu while attending a wedding
b) My traveling laptop didn't have all the important data
c) I hurried so I can get to the next round of golf
d) The whole thing is just a scam: The Guru was just throwing darts on a board anyway
I could've picked one or all of the above, but I will instead blame the voters. The projection business is part mathematics and part psychology. While I can pretty consistently nail down the computer rankings, getting the human votes right is much, much harder. Think about it: Between the coaches poll and Harris poll, there are 174 potential voters, each with a mind of his own. They might do what's expected of a rational human being, or they might vote Troy as the 21st best team in the country, as one did this past week.
The point is this: I expected quite a few more voters to cast their ballots for LSU vis-a-vis Boston College, and they thought otherwise. And at this point of the season, the voters will decide everything. Yes, just like last year, when the voters mandated that there would be no rematch between Ohio State and Michigan, they will let us know whom they want in the BCS title game.
Right now, it looks like Ohio State and Boston College.
With mostly only conference games remaining for every team, it's unlikely that you'll see a seismic shift in the computer rankings if a team keeps winning. This is why November is the time to score style points. While computers are not allowed to use margin of victory in their formulas, the voters can freely interpret the meaning of the outcome of each game. Win impressively, you might siphon a few votes from your competitors. Win barely, you'll be punished.
For now, these are the resumes of the Elite Eight:
For sure, one of those teams will be eliminated this weekend, as Oregon and Arizona State clash in Eugene. The loser will not have a chance to play for the national title, and probably be out of the Pac-10 race as well. And then, on Nov. 17, two huge games involving the current Nos. 1 and 2 will either cement their places in New Orleans, or blow the whole thing wide open.
Finally, as promised, this is the Guru's take on Hawai'i: Not good, but improving somewhat. The Rainbow Warriors currently occupy the 14th spot in the BCS rankings, two below what's needed for a guaranteed berth. Hawai'i's computer rankings are 14, 26, 31, 33, 47 and 54. So far, the Warriors are getting no points in the computer ratings and it looks as though they might get just a tad at the end of the season.
So again, it will come down to the human voters. Assuming Hawai'i gets .100 in the computers, it will need to rank about a consensus eighth or ninth in the human polls to pull it off. It will test the willingness of human voters to put a team that so far has played the easiest schedule in all of Division I-A in the Top 10. To me, that seems unlikely.
Then again, if I can divine the intentions of every human voter, then I'm in the wrong business.
Sunday, October 28, 2007
A Disturbing Trend
The upset epidemic seems to have subsided. So to everyone's surprise, for the first time this season we will have the same top five teams -- in the same order -- for a second consecutive week.
The Guru projects that Ohio State will maintain its hold on No. 1 while Boston College will gain a little separation from one-loss LSU, idle this week, for No. 2. Arizona State and Oregon will stay at Nos. 4 and 5.
Now that the dust settles a bit on this turbulent season, we see an emerging picture, and that's not a pretty one. It's likely that Ohio State and Boston College, two teams playing in weak conferences -- the Big Ten and ACC, respectively -- will meet for the national title. Meanwhile, champions from the best two conferences, the SEC and Pac-10, will be shut out.
The Buckeyes' lone remaining tough game is their season-ending visit to Ann Arbor against Michigan, the only other unbeaten team in Big Ten play. Ohio State has built its resume by feasting on the absurdly mediocre Big Ten, which may end up with no other team in the Top 25, and the likes of I-AA Youngstown State, MAC teams Akron and Kent State and Pac-10 bottom-feeder Washington.
The same can be said for Boston College, which until Thursday's dramatic comeback against Virginia Tech, hadn't played a ranked team all season. BC's non-conference slate consisted of I-AA UMass, Army, Bowling Green and everybody's favorite cupcake (yes, Charlie, I'm taking my shot now) Notre Dame.
Meanwhile, LSU, Oregon and Oklahoma, three teams that suffered a last-second, gut-wrenching loss in conference play, might each end up 12-1 and not get even a piece of the national championship. Arizona State and Kansas, the only other remaining unbeaten teams (besides Hawai'i), might have a slim chance of making a move toward the end of the season. Their toughest games are still ahead.
In college football, schedule is everything.
The Guru's projected BCS Top 15: 1. Ohio State, 2. Boston College, 3. LSU, 4. Arizona State, 5. Oregon, 6. Oklahoma, 7. West Virginia, 8. Kansas, 9. Missouri, 10. Virginia Tech, 11. Florida, 12. USC, 13. Georgia, 14. Michigan, 15. Texas.
The Guru projects that Ohio State will maintain its hold on No. 1 while Boston College will gain a little separation from one-loss LSU, idle this week, for No. 2. Arizona State and Oregon will stay at Nos. 4 and 5.
Now that the dust settles a bit on this turbulent season, we see an emerging picture, and that's not a pretty one. It's likely that Ohio State and Boston College, two teams playing in weak conferences -- the Big Ten and ACC, respectively -- will meet for the national title. Meanwhile, champions from the best two conferences, the SEC and Pac-10, will be shut out.
The Buckeyes' lone remaining tough game is their season-ending visit to Ann Arbor against Michigan, the only other unbeaten team in Big Ten play. Ohio State has built its resume by feasting on the absurdly mediocre Big Ten, which may end up with no other team in the Top 25, and the likes of I-AA Youngstown State, MAC teams Akron and Kent State and Pac-10 bottom-feeder Washington.
The same can be said for Boston College, which until Thursday's dramatic comeback against Virginia Tech, hadn't played a ranked team all season. BC's non-conference slate consisted of I-AA UMass, Army, Bowling Green and everybody's favorite cupcake (yes, Charlie, I'm taking my shot now) Notre Dame.
Meanwhile, LSU, Oregon and Oklahoma, three teams that suffered a last-second, gut-wrenching loss in conference play, might each end up 12-1 and not get even a piece of the national championship. Arizona State and Kansas, the only other remaining unbeaten teams (besides Hawai'i), might have a slim chance of making a move toward the end of the season. Their toughest games are still ahead.
In college football, schedule is everything.
The Guru's projected BCS Top 15: 1. Ohio State, 2. Boston College, 3. LSU, 4. Arizona State, 5. Oregon, 6. Oklahoma, 7. West Virginia, 8. Kansas, 9. Missouri, 10. Virginia Tech, 11. Florida, 12. USC, 13. Georgia, 14. Michigan, 15. Texas.
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Elimination Time!
ANN ARBOR, Mich. -- The Guru had a ticket for this Saturday's "Little Brown Jug" fight at the Big House. But because of a scheduling conflict, I will have to return home instead to tend to the WLOCP (Florida-Georgia, for those uninitiated). It's just as well after an astrocious exhibition of putting on the University of Michigan Golf Course this afternoon.
But hey, at least I severed the head of a Brutus tee on a 300-yard drive.
The rest of the college football world will be gunning for the top-ranked Buckeyes as well (say, that's what you call a segue!), starting with this weekend's game at Happy Valley. No. 2 Boston College also has a treacherous road game at Virginia Tech. It's possible, if not probable, that Hawai'i would be the only undefeated team left after this weekend. And we haven't even hit Novemeber yet.
With that as the backdrop, I now present you the Week 9 Guru's List:
GOLD -- Ohio State controls its own destiny, as does No. 2 Boston College. If the Eagles beat the Hokies this weekend and run the table, they will maintain their lead on No. 3 LSU, even if the Bayou Tigers win the SEC championship. The reason is simple: If the voters felt an unbeaten BC should be in front of a 1-loss LSU now, then that won't change if BC can get through the meat of its schedule unscathed.
SILVER -- LSU, Oregon and Arizona State. The Tigers will need help now that the pollsters have spoken. Ditto for the two surprising Pac-10 teams. Who'd thought that the top two teams in the Pac-10 at this point of the season would be somebody other than USC and Cal?
BRONZE -- Oklahoma, West Virginia, Virginia Tech and Kansas are all playing for BCS bowl berths, if not necessarily a BCS title game berth. USC is now the most intriguing team, as the Trojans have the potential to return to the Top 5 should they run through the gauntlet (at Oregon, Oregon State, at Cal, at Arizona State, UCLA) undefeated.
This week's BCS Buster Games:
5-Star: Boston College at Virginia Tech (Thursday) -- The real test for BC begins with a visit to Blacksburg, as so far the Golden Eagles have been relatively untested. A victory will cement their standing as the second-ranked team behind Ohio State; a loss will expose the Eagles as pretenders.
4-Star: Ohio State at Penn State -- The Buckeyes also start the toughest portion of their schedule, as they will not face another team currently with a losing record. This game is particularly troublesome for Ohio State as it has lost four of its last five visits to Beaver Stadium and Penn State is 18-1 there over three seasons, and 5-0 this year.
3-Star: USC at Oregon -- The Trojans' slim national title hopes are flickering, and a win at Autzen Stadium is a must. In the Pac-10, this is where the schedule gets exciting, as the top five teams are finally playing each other. And four of those five teams, including those two, all control their own destinies.
2-Star: Cal at Arizona State -- Who would've thought that the Sun Devils would be unbeaten and possibly playing for the national championship, and not Cal? But despite their latest stumbles against UCLA and Oregon State, the Golden Bears are still a formidable force whereas ASU will be playing the other top four teams in the Pac-10 in the next four games.
1-Star: Kansas at Texas A&M -- The Jayhawks have gotten fat on very questionable competition, so this will be their first real test. Kansas has a very favorable Big 12 schedule this year, as it does not face either Oklahoma or Texas, so KU could get into the conference championship game undefeated.
But hey, at least I severed the head of a Brutus tee on a 300-yard drive.
The rest of the college football world will be gunning for the top-ranked Buckeyes as well (say, that's what you call a segue!), starting with this weekend's game at Happy Valley. No. 2 Boston College also has a treacherous road game at Virginia Tech. It's possible, if not probable, that Hawai'i would be the only undefeated team left after this weekend. And we haven't even hit Novemeber yet.
With that as the backdrop, I now present you the Week 9 Guru's List:
GOLD -- Ohio State controls its own destiny, as does No. 2 Boston College. If the Eagles beat the Hokies this weekend and run the table, they will maintain their lead on No. 3 LSU, even if the Bayou Tigers win the SEC championship. The reason is simple: If the voters felt an unbeaten BC should be in front of a 1-loss LSU now, then that won't change if BC can get through the meat of its schedule unscathed.
SILVER -- LSU, Oregon and Arizona State. The Tigers will need help now that the pollsters have spoken. Ditto for the two surprising Pac-10 teams. Who'd thought that the top two teams in the Pac-10 at this point of the season would be somebody other than USC and Cal?
BRONZE -- Oklahoma, West Virginia, Virginia Tech and Kansas are all playing for BCS bowl berths, if not necessarily a BCS title game berth. USC is now the most intriguing team, as the Trojans have the potential to return to the Top 5 should they run through the gauntlet (at Oregon, Oregon State, at Cal, at Arizona State, UCLA) undefeated.
This week's BCS Buster Games:
5-Star: Boston College at Virginia Tech (Thursday) -- The real test for BC begins with a visit to Blacksburg, as so far the Golden Eagles have been relatively untested. A victory will cement their standing as the second-ranked team behind Ohio State; a loss will expose the Eagles as pretenders.
4-Star: Ohio State at Penn State -- The Buckeyes also start the toughest portion of their schedule, as they will not face another team currently with a losing record. This game is particularly troublesome for Ohio State as it has lost four of its last five visits to Beaver Stadium and Penn State is 18-1 there over three seasons, and 5-0 this year.
3-Star: USC at Oregon -- The Trojans' slim national title hopes are flickering, and a win at Autzen Stadium is a must. In the Pac-10, this is where the schedule gets exciting, as the top five teams are finally playing each other. And four of those five teams, including those two, all control their own destinies.
2-Star: Cal at Arizona State -- Who would've thought that the Sun Devils would be unbeaten and possibly playing for the national championship, and not Cal? But despite their latest stumbles against UCLA and Oregon State, the Golden Bears are still a formidable force whereas ASU will be playing the other top four teams in the Pac-10 in the next four games.
1-Star: Kansas at Texas A&M -- The Jayhawks have gotten fat on very questionable competition, so this will be their first real test. Kansas has a very favorable Big 12 schedule this year, as it does not face either Oklahoma or Texas, so KU could get into the conference championship game undefeated.
Sunday, October 21, 2007
The Tigers Are Baaaaaaaack ...
SPRINGFIELD, Mass. -- It took only a week, but it looks as though the LSU Tigers are right back where they were two weeks ago -- in the national championship hunt.
After last night's last-second thriller over Auburn, the Tigers should collect enough human votes, along with a stellar computer ranking, to edge Boston College for the second spot in the new BCS standings. Ohio State, of course, remains No. 1.
After BC, there will be a significant drop to Oklahoma. West Virginia, Oregon, Arizona State, Virginia Tech, Kansas and Florida round out the top 10.
Despite their impressive showing against Notre Dame, the USC Trojans are still just outside of the Top 10. Let's face it, this horrible joke of an Irish football team is not helping anybody's computer rating, so SC will have to wait until next week's showdown at Eugene for a chance to reclaim a spot in the Top 10.
To recap, this is the Guru's projected Top 15:
1. Ohio State, 2. LSU, 3. Boston College, 4. Oklahoma, 5. West Virginia, 6. Oregon, 7. Arizona State, 8. Virginia Tech, 9. Kansas, 10. Florida, 11. Missouri, 12. USC, 13. South Florida, 14. Kentucky, 15. South Carolina.
(more to come Sunday night)
After last night's last-second thriller over Auburn, the Tigers should collect enough human votes, along with a stellar computer ranking, to edge Boston College for the second spot in the new BCS standings. Ohio State, of course, remains No. 1.
After BC, there will be a significant drop to Oklahoma. West Virginia, Oregon, Arizona State, Virginia Tech, Kansas and Florida round out the top 10.
Despite their impressive showing against Notre Dame, the USC Trojans are still just outside of the Top 10. Let's face it, this horrible joke of an Irish football team is not helping anybody's computer rating, so SC will have to wait until next week's showdown at Eugene for a chance to reclaim a spot in the Top 10.
To recap, this is the Guru's projected Top 15:
1. Ohio State, 2. LSU, 3. Boston College, 4. Oklahoma, 5. West Virginia, 6. Oregon, 7. Arizona State, 8. Virginia Tech, 9. Kansas, 10. Florida, 11. Missouri, 12. USC, 13. South Florida, 14. Kentucky, 15. South Carolina.
(more to come Sunday night)
Sunday, October 14, 2007
The More Things Change ...
The BCS Guru web site began its existence exactly a year ago today. On Oct. 13, 2006, the Guru projected that Ohio State would be the No. 1 team when the official BCS standings were unveiled two days later.
It's deja vu all over again.
After Saturday's stunning upset losses by LSU and California, two teams ranked Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, in the human polls, the Buckeyes will find themselves No. 1 once again when the first official BCS standings are unveiled Sunday.
Behind Ohio State, the Guru projects South Florida will narrowly edge out Boston College for the second spot. LSU, despite its triple overtime loss at Kentucky, will be at No. 4, followed by Oklahoma, South Carolina, Oregon, Kentucky, Arizona State and West Virginia.
Of course, these projections hinge greatly on the Guru's ability to divine human intentions, which is way more difficult than deciphering computer formulas. If the voters in the coaches' poll and Harris poll decided not to follow the Guru's logic, then all bets are off.
That being said, there are a few certainties:
1) The rank of the unbeatens have dwindled to six -- Ohio State, South Florida, Boston College, Arizona State, Kansas and Hawai'i. Each of the six BCS conferences is represented, except the SEC.
2) Hawai'i, with the best chance to stay undefeated among the "Clean Half a Dozen," will still be outside of the Top 15.
3) LSU is not out of the national championship race, not by a long shot. Oklahoma also has played its way back into contention after wins over Texas and previously unbeaten Missouri. A handful of one-loss teams such as South Carolina, Kentucky and Oregon have re-emerged into the picture.
4) USC, however, is still on the outside looking in. The Trojans' less-than-impressive win over Arizona didn't help all that much. And Cal, after falling short against Oregon State, will also need a lot of help.
5) Ohio State, with a relatively benign schedule, has a very good chance at a return visit to the BCS national championship game. Its biggest remaining challenge is the Nov. 17 road game against the only other team unbeaten in Big Ten play. Dare we say it: Michigan?
Is it 2007, or is it Memorex?
THE GURU'S PROJECTED TOP 15
1. Ohio State; 2. South Florida; 3. Boston College; 4. LSU; 5. Oklahoma; 6. South Carolina; 7, Oregon; 8. Kentucky; 9. Arizona State; 10. West Virginia; 11. Virginia Tech; 12. USC; 13. California; 14. Florida; 15. Missouri.
It's deja vu all over again.
After Saturday's stunning upset losses by LSU and California, two teams ranked Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, in the human polls, the Buckeyes will find themselves No. 1 once again when the first official BCS standings are unveiled Sunday.
Behind Ohio State, the Guru projects South Florida will narrowly edge out Boston College for the second spot. LSU, despite its triple overtime loss at Kentucky, will be at No. 4, followed by Oklahoma, South Carolina, Oregon, Kentucky, Arizona State and West Virginia.
Of course, these projections hinge greatly on the Guru's ability to divine human intentions, which is way more difficult than deciphering computer formulas. If the voters in the coaches' poll and Harris poll decided not to follow the Guru's logic, then all bets are off.
That being said, there are a few certainties:
1) The rank of the unbeatens have dwindled to six -- Ohio State, South Florida, Boston College, Arizona State, Kansas and Hawai'i. Each of the six BCS conferences is represented, except the SEC.
2) Hawai'i, with the best chance to stay undefeated among the "Clean Half a Dozen," will still be outside of the Top 15.
3) LSU is not out of the national championship race, not by a long shot. Oklahoma also has played its way back into contention after wins over Texas and previously unbeaten Missouri. A handful of one-loss teams such as South Carolina, Kentucky and Oregon have re-emerged into the picture.
4) USC, however, is still on the outside looking in. The Trojans' less-than-impressive win over Arizona didn't help all that much. And Cal, after falling short against Oregon State, will also need a lot of help.
5) Ohio State, with a relatively benign schedule, has a very good chance at a return visit to the BCS national championship game. Its biggest remaining challenge is the Nov. 17 road game against the only other team unbeaten in Big Ten play. Dare we say it: Michigan?
Is it 2007, or is it Memorex?
THE GURU'S PROJECTED TOP 15
1. Ohio State; 2. South Florida; 3. Boston College; 4. LSU; 5. Oklahoma; 6. South Carolina; 7, Oregon; 8. Kentucky; 9. Arizona State; 10. West Virginia; 11. Virginia Tech; 12. USC; 13. California; 14. Florida; 15. Missouri.
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