Sunday, October 14, 2007

The More Things Change ...

The BCS Guru web site began its existence exactly a year ago today. On Oct. 13, 2006, the Guru projected that Ohio State would be the No. 1 team when the official BCS standings were unveiled two days later.

It's deja vu all over again.

After Saturday's stunning upset losses by LSU and California, two teams ranked Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, in the human polls, the Buckeyes will find themselves No. 1 once again when the first official BCS standings are unveiled Sunday.

Behind Ohio State, the Guru projects South Florida will narrowly edge out Boston College for the second spot. LSU, despite its triple overtime loss at Kentucky, will be at No. 4, followed by Oklahoma, South Carolina, Oregon, Kentucky, Arizona State and West Virginia.

Of course, these projections hinge greatly on the Guru's ability to divine human intentions, which is way more difficult than deciphering computer formulas. If the voters in the coaches' poll and Harris poll decided not to follow the Guru's logic, then all bets are off.

That being said, there are a few certainties:

1) The rank of the unbeatens have dwindled to six -- Ohio State, South Florida, Boston College, Arizona State, Kansas and Hawai'i. Each of the six BCS conferences is represented, except the SEC.

2) Hawai'i, with the best chance to stay undefeated among the "Clean Half a Dozen," will still be outside of the Top 15.

3) LSU is not out of the national championship race, not by a long shot. Oklahoma also has played its way back into contention after wins over Texas and previously unbeaten Missouri. A handful of one-loss teams such as South Carolina, Kentucky and Oregon have re-emerged into the picture.

4) USC, however, is still on the outside looking in. The Trojans' less-than-impressive win over Arizona didn't help all that much. And Cal, after falling short against Oregon State, will also need a lot of help.

5) Ohio State, with a relatively benign schedule, has a very good chance at a return visit to the BCS national championship game. Its biggest remaining challenge is the Nov. 17 road game against the only other team unbeaten in Big Ten play. Dare we say it: Michigan?

Is it 2007, or is it Memorex?


1. Ohio State; 2. South Florida; 3. Boston College; 4. LSU; 5. Oklahoma; 6. South Carolina; 7, Oregon; 8. Kentucky; 9. Arizona State; 10. West Virginia; 11. Virginia Tech; 12. USC; 13. California; 14. Florida; 15. Missouri.

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