Hard to Explain Away SEC Bias

So preseason rankings do matter after all?

While the selection committee's top seven teams stayed exactly the same Tuesday, chairman Jeff Long's explanations for the latest College Football Playoff rankings are beginning to defy both logic and the committee's own procedural guidelines.

Last week he introduced the concept of "game control" to justify Alabama's No. 1 ranking, and this week he came up with "quality loss" and one other whopper during the ESPN broadcast: It matters if a team is ranked when it is beaten.

Therefore, Alabama still gets credit for wins over LSU and Texas A&M though neither is now ranked, as does Mississippi State. This goes directly against the committee's protocol to look at the entire body of work and not rely on preseason perception.

Long later scrambled on a conference call with reporters to say that only the committee's own rankings matter, not the preseason and early-season variety as produced by the AP or Coaches Polls. The problem is that doesn't wash either.

By this criteria Mississippi State has beaten exactly zero teams as ranked by the committee at the time of the game, yet it's still at No. 4, ahead of other one-loss teams—TCU, Baylor and Ohio State—that have beaten committee-ranked opponents.

Maybe the problem is having these weekly announcements and the need to come up with tortured logic to explain rankings that are by no means a consensus. But since we're here to pick them apart, let's look at five more issues:

1. Is SEC bias creeping in?
Long's most controversial moves so far have been made to favor SEC teams—placing Alabama No. 1 ahead of Oregon and putting Mississippi State in the playoff field (as of now). The fact that he's the Arkansas athletic director does not help.

ESPN, the network that will televise all playoff games (not to mention all but one of the 39 bowl games), co-owns and operates the SEC Network. A conflict of interest will be suspected by all outside parties.

2. Winning is not enough, just ask Florida State
The scoreboard is taking a backseat to Game Control Theory™ and Quality Loss, two elements that the defending national champions have not been able to master. Because of their propensity to pull out last-minute wins (without a loss), the Seminoles continue to be banished to No. 3.

And while they've beaten three teams that were ranked at the time of the game (and two still currently ranked), that doesn't seem to matter either.

3. The committee loves Minnesota, and so does TCU
The Golden Gophers are certainly one of the feel-good stories of the season, and they're one win away from claiming the Big Ten West title. But the committee has taken that admiration to another level, putting Minnesota four spots higher than it is in the polls and about 12 higher than its average computer ranking.

This is all very lovely for TCU, however, as its 30-7 win over the Gophers early in the season is what prevents its head-to-head loss to Baylor from mattering, at least for now.

4. Who's afraid of Virginia Tech?
Ohio State's home loss to Virginia Tech looks worse every week, especially after the Hokies were shut out in regulation by 3-8 Wake Forest in last Saturday's desultory 6-3 two-overtime loss. But was it really that bad? Long said the committee doesn't view that 35-21 defeat against the now 5-6 Hokies as a terrible loss.

Virginia Tech was not ranked then (and of course it isn't now), but Long's response seems to suggest that the Buckeyes will be able to overcome that by winning the Big Ten championship.

5. Marshall is unbeaten and looks doomed
The committee finally put a group-of-five (actually two) team back in the rankings after snubbing those teams the past three weeks. But 11-0 Marshall is one spot behind 9-2 Boise State, and the remaining schedule certainly favors the Broncos to stay ahead.

The committee has made a big deal out of nonconference schedules, and Marshall's is admittedly weak (though that apparently doesn't apply to Mississippi State). But is Boise's strong enough to trump two losses?

Playoff Committee Rankings Comparison

Rank	Team	B/R Mock	AP Poll	vs. T25 Then*	vs. T25 Now
1	Alabama	1	2	3-1	1-1
2	Oregon	2	3	3-0	3-1
3	Florida St.	3	1	3-0	2-0
4	Miss St.	4	4	3-1	1-1
5	TCU	5	6	4-1	3-1
6	Ohio St.	6	7	2-0	2-0
7	Baylor	7	5	2-0	2-0
8	UCLA	8	9	3-1	2-2
9	Georgia	9	8	3-1	3-0
10	Michigan St.	11	10	1-2	0-2
11	Arizona	12	12	2-1	2-1
12	Kansas St.	10	11	1-2	1-2
13	Arizona St.	13	13	4-1	1-1
14	Wisconsin	16	14	1-1	0-0
15	Auburn	14	15	3-2	1-2
16	Ga. Tech	17	16	1-0	1-0
17	Missouri	18	17	2-1	0-1
18	Minnesota	20	22	1-1	0-2
19	Ole Miss	15	18	2-2	2-1
20	Oklahoma	19	20	0-3	0-3
21	Clemson	21	23	0-3	1-3
22	Louisville	22	24	0-1	0-2
23	Boise St.	26	25	0-1	0-1
24	Marshall	25	19	0-0	0-0
25	Utah	32	28	2-3	1-3

* Ranked by AP/committee at time of game

Conference Call on Playoff Field

With just two weeks left in the regular season, the field of contenders for the four playoff spots is shrinking fast. After Saturday, there are only 16 teams still mathematically alive for their respective conference championships. And of those 16, maybe half of them have a legitimate shot of being part of the inaugural College Football Playoff.

While winning the conference championship is not necessarily a prerequisite of qualifying for the playoff, the committee did list that as a major factor in its selection process. Of all the remaining contenders, maybe just one - Mississippi State - has a shot at making the playoff without winning its conference.

There probably will not be significant changes in the committee's rankings this week other than that No. 8 Ole Miss will be tumbling down after a 30-0 wipeout loss to Arkansas. So we'll take a good look at those final 16 teams and dissect their prospects:

Teams with no chance
Wisconsin (Big Ten), Minnesota (Big Ten), Georgia Tech (ACC): The Minnesota-Wisconsin winner as well as Georgia Tech are guaranteed a place in their respective championship games. But they're too far down the standings and have weak resumes with killer losses (Wisconsin to Northwestern, Minnesota to Illinois, Georgia Tech to North Carolina) to have any shot.

Teams with slim chance
Kansas State (Big 12), Arizona (Pac-12), Arizona State (Pac-12): These three two-loss teams are hovering around the low-teens but all have significant obstacles to overcome. K-State can share the Big 12 title if it wins out, but having lost to TCU and with an extra nonconference loss, it's unlikely to leapfrog the Frogs in the rankings. The Territorial Cup winner can only claim the Pac-12 South with a UCLA loss to Stanford, but even if that team beats Oregon in the Pac-12 title game it needs lots of teams in front of it to suffer unexpected losses to get into the top four.

Teams need a lot of help
Georgia (SEC), Missouri (SEC): Mizzou wins the SEC East with a victory over resurgent Arkansas, otherwise, the division title goes to Georgia. But Besides having to knock off a heavily-favored SEC West winner (Alabama or Mississippi State), they both already have two losses including a very bad one each (Georgia to Florida, Mizzou to Indiana). A win by the East winner in the conference title game may very well cost the SEC a spot in the playoff.

Teams need some help
Baylor (Big 12), TCU (Big 12), Ohio State (Big Ten), UCLA (Pac-12): All of those teams can win at least a share (in the cases of TCU and Baylor) of their respective conference titles on their own, but they don't control their own fate when it comes to the playoff. Only one of those teams will make it to the Final Four if the top three teams win out. Despite last week's No. 7 ranking, Baylor might have the best shot as it's likely to jump both TCU and Ohio State with a final game victory over Kansas State to finish 11-1.

Team needs Auburn's help
Mississippi State (SEC): An Auburn upset of Alabama in the Iron Bowl puts the Bulldogs back in the SEC title game—if they defeat slumping Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl. Without a division (and conference) title, they probably will end up 11-1 with nowhere (in the playoff) to go. While it's currently ranked No. 4, Miss State is certain to lose ground in the final two weeks of the season to a one-loss champion from another conference since its resume is not good enough to trump that purportedly important consideration.

Teams need no help
Alabama (SEC), Oregon (Pac-12), Florida State (ACC): Win out, and they're in the playoff, simple as that. Never mind the committee's seeming hostility, the Seminoles will get a chance to defend their title if they beat Florida and Georgia Tech in the next two games.

Other Fun Facts

 * Is this the week the committee finally puts a group-of-five team (or two) in the rankings after having snubbed them the past three weeks? There are just 24 power-five teams with three or fewer losses and Duke is certainly not going to be ranked. That means either Marshall and/or Colorado State will break through or up to a pair of four-loss teams will be ranked.

* Georgia Tech should be a lock for the Orange Bowl if it beats Georgia in the Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate. Other than playoff-bound FSU, there are no other ACC teams with fewer than three losses. Of course, the Jackets are guaranteed an Orange Bowl berth if they upset the 'Noles in the ACC title game.

* Notre Dame and BYU are both 7-4 and neither has a prayer of getting into a New Year's Six bowl. But even if their respective seasons had gone much better, access to the playoff and the best bowls still will be difficult for them under the new regime. With Navy set to join the American next season, we finally could be witnessing the death of independents at the FBS level.

Seven Contenders Left Standing

With three weeks left on the season, there are just seven FBS teams with no more than one loss. It's possible for all seven to win out, but only six will be able to claim (or share) their respective conference championships.

The selection committee's most difficult task now is to determine which three teams to leave out of the four-team playoff field if each wins its remaining games. Keep in mind that because the members pledged to look at the teams based on their entire body of work, the rankings may shift each week even without any of the teams losing.

So chances are the Top 4 teams you see this week won't be exactly the same next week, or the week after that. But the bottom line is that the current Top 3 teams are in the playoff if avoid losing, and the rest will have to fight it out for the final spot.

THE RANKINGS


The Playoff Teams

1. Oregon
The top spot is a toss-up between Oregon and Alabama, but we think the Ducks will get the edge because of their superior record against current Top 25 teams. They have beaten three ranked teams—UCLA, Michigan State and Utah—whereas the Tide have defeated just one, over Mississippi State on Saturday.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Rose Bowl

2. Alabama
Their win over the Bulldogs put the Tide back in the driver's seat in the SEC West race, but their work is far from done. A loss to Auburn in the Iron Bowl will keep them out of the SEC title game and almost certainly the inaugural playoff. As things stand now, Alabama can't afford a second loss.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Sugar Bowl

3. Florida State
The Seminoles will make the playoff if they win out, but they have no margin for error. FSU does not own a single victory over a ranked team so a first loss will prove fatal for its quest to repeat as the national champion. But with two home games plus the ACC title game—where they'll be double-digit favorites in all—the Noles have the easiest path to a playoff spot.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Sugar Bowl

4. TCU
The Horned Frogs probably will still hold on to this spot despite a lackluster win over Kansas. Keep in mind that since the committee isn't supposed to act like pollsters, weekly results shouldn't change the narrative too much as TCU has a better overall resume than Baylor and Ohio State. But by no means that the Frogs should feel comfortable as they've got nothing locked up even if they win out.
Projected bowl: Playoff at Rose Bowl


The First Four Out

5. Mississippi State
The Bulldogs need help (i.e., an Auburn upset in the Iron Bowl) to win the SEC West. They need a lot more help to get into the playoff as an at-large team. Because of Miss State's weak nonconference schedule, there is little chance for it to be selected for the four-team field if there are enough one-loss conference champions available.
Projected bowl: Cotton Bowl

6. Baylor
The Bears were idle this week, but got some good news with TCU's struggles with Kansas and also Arizona State's loss. At the end of the season, the committee will compare TCU and Baylor's resume side-by-side with close scrutiny as they share 10 common opponents. The margin of victories will matter if both teams finish 11-1 and share the Big 12 title.
Projected bowl: Cotton Bowl

7. Ohio State
The Buckeyes remain on the outside looking in (don't let Kirk Herbstreit's bracket fool you). Their close win over Minnesota won't help their cause as TCU blew out the Gophers early in the season. And that the fact a two-loss Wisconsin (at best) will be the best game left on their schedule won't provide them much of a boost. Ohio State needs lots of things to break its way.
Projected bowl: Fiesta Bowl

9. UCLA
A handful of two-loss teams are still clinging to hopes of crashing the playoff field, and out of this group UCLA might have the best shot. The Bruins control the tough Pac-12 South race and if they beat Oregon in a rematch in the conference title game, they might have a chance to steal a berth—but they'll need a ton of help.
Projected bowl: Fiesta Bowl


Other Fun Facts

* The group-of-five race likely is coming down to three teams and at this point you have to like Marshall's chances despite its less-than-rigorous schedule. Colorado State's path to the Mountain West championship is blocked by Boise State, which is also a contender but has two losses. Since seven of the committee's bottom 10 teams (Nos. 16-25) from last week lost, we expect to see at least one, if not two, non-power-five teams in the next rankings.

* There are 27 power-five teams with three or fewer losses and all but three or four of these teams will make the next rankings. The teams about certain to be excluded are Iowa, Minnesota and Louisville, with Oklahoma and Clemson expected to fight for the last one or two spots.

* The Orange Bowl picture—a berth is guaranteed to an ACC team even if Florida State makes the playoff—got a lot murkier after both Clemson and Duke lost on Saturday. The Blue Devils will repeat as the Coastal winner if they win their remaining two games. But there's a good chance that Georgia Tech might snag this bid even if it doesn't win its division but finishes the regular season with a victory in the Clean Old Fashioned Hate.

Nobody Should Get Very Comfortable Just Yet

The selection committee's third release of its rankings proved to be its most interesting and revealing. There is strong indication that the members indeed are evaluating the teams freshly each week and not following the poll practice where teams only slide up and down out of fixed positions from the previous week.

That's good. It makes for an intriguing final month of the season for the fewer than a dozen contenders still remaining in the playoff hunt.

Here are the five things that come immediately to mind based on the committee's new rankings:

SEC is looking at one bid
Forget two bids in the four-team field. The SEC will need to hang on to its one bid, as a two-loss conference champion may very well be shut out of the playoff. Despite being the top-ranked team for three weeks in a row, Mississippi State may be finished with just one loss if it does not win the SEC West because of a weak nonconference schedule.

Big Ten is in big trouble
Ohio State's big win over Michigan State is good for the Buckeyes but very bad for their conference. OSU will not be able to play its way into the playoff without help as the committee has a very low regard for the Big Ten. The Buckeyes' best remaining opponent could be Nebraska—if they meet in the B1G title game—and the Huskers are ranked only 16th despite having just one loss.

TCU shouldn't get too comfortable
While the Horned Frogs made a celebrated jump into the top four this week, this stay is by no means permanent. Baylor still has a chance to get past TCU as it has better opponents coming up, including the regular-season finale against Kansas State.
Since the two teams share the same foes in 10 of their 11 games against FBS opponents, TCU should root hard for Minnesota, as its victory over the now-ranked Gophers is a far better scalp than Baylor's win over Buffalo.

Committee is sending a message about schedule
That Baylor is in its current predicament owes a great deal to its awful nonconference schedule. Conversely, that UCLA is ranked 11th can be traced to its decision to play two power-five opponents in its three OOC games. A third example is Notre Dame, where we learned that while it's good to schedule tough opponents, you'll need to beat them to get credit.

Where's group-of-five?
For a second consecutive week, the committee did not bother to put a group-of-five team in the rankings, leaving the access bowl picture very murky. But with the introduction of Minnesota at No. 25, one must wonder if leaving Marshall out at this point makes sense. As a direct comparison, the Herd performed better than the Gophers as they both beat Middle Tennessee at home. Marshall won by 25 (49-24) whereas Minnesota won by 11 (35-24).

Playoff Committee Rankings Comparison

CFP Rank	Team	BCS	B/R Mock	AP	Coaches
1`	Mississippi State	1	1	1	1
2	Oregon	4	3	3	4
3	Florida State	2	2	2	2
4	TCU	5	5	5	5
5	Alabama	3	4	4	3
6	Arizona State	6	6	7	8
7	Baylor	7	7	6	6
8	Ohio State	10	8	8	7
9	Auburn	8	9	9	9
10	Ole Miss	9	10	10	10
11	UCLA	12	12	14	15
12	Michigan State	13	14	12	12
13	Kansas State	14	13	13	13
14	Arizona	19	15	17	18
15	Georgia	15	18	16	14
16	Nebraska	11	11	11	11
17	LSU	17	17	20	20
18	Notre Dame	16	16	15	16
19	Clemson	18	19	18	17
20	Wisconsin	22	22	22	22
21	Duke	20	20	19	19
22	Georgia Tech	25	21	24	23
23	Utah	NR	24	25	28
24	Texas A&M	23	23	27	30
25	Minnesota	NR	31	30	27
NR	Marshall	21	25	21	21
NR	Colorado State	24	30	23	25

* No group-of-five team is ranked by the committee.

Explanation of rankings

BCS rankings are a simulation of the BCS formula used from 2004-2013 with two exceptions: The AP poll is used in place of the Harris Poll, and Sagarin and Massey rankings are their native systems instead of the non-MOV version used for the BCS.

CFP mock rankings are published weekly at Bleacher Report, with components including polls, computers, strength of schedule and conference championships. The full rankings are here.