BCS Chaos for Split Championship

While there are still two more weeks to produce some BCS chaos, let's not overlook the fact that one team on nobody's radar could be locking up a share of the national championship as soon as next week. Ohio State might be out-of-sight, out-of-mind as far as the BCS is concerned, it's very much alive to win the AP national championship, which is every bit as prestigious as the BCS one.

The Buckeyes, currently ranked fourth in the AP poll, is one of only two unbeaten teams left in the country. A victory over Michigan next week will complete Ohio State's season at 12-0, and more significantly, how they play against the Wolverines will have an impact on the voters. Remember, Notre Dame needed six Michigan turnovers to get by in that game at home, 13-6.

Should the Irish defeat the Max Wittek-led Trojans to also finish 12-0 next week, they'll be in the BCS title game. And according to Danny Sheridan, they'll also be an underdog - and possibly a double-digit underdog - against any other team currently in the BCS top five in the title game. If Notre Dame is routed in Miami to leave Ohio State as the lone unbeaten team, will the Buckeyes take the AP title?

Or what if Wittek leads USC to an upset at the Coliseum, will that be enough to catapult Ohio State to No. 1 in the AP poll next week? If that's the case, the Buckeyes can size for their national title rings even before November is out. How about that - all the BCS chaos for only half of the national championship?

BCS Bowl Projections

BCS national championship: Notre Dame vs. Alabama
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl: Oregon vs. Kansas State
Rose Bowl: Stanford vs. Nebraska
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. Rutgers

(FULL ARTICLE @ SB NATION)

BCS Weekly News Roundup (Sept. 11)

POLLS ALL ABOUT (MIS)PERCEPTIONS (Las Vegas Review-Journal, Sept. 10) - It doesn't matter which voter from The Associated Press Top 25 college football poll said it. The message is far more important, because it again cuts to a reality of how many continue to buy into that cartel known as Bowl Championship Series. It's a mindset thing. And it's wrong.

TRESSEL MUST BEAT USC TO KEEP FANS HAPPY (FoxSports.com, Sept. 10) - There's a very good reason he's never devoted so much as one idle thought to the pursuit of his own popularity. Why worry about something that's always been as certain as the sunrise? It's different now for Ohio State coach Jim Tressel. Way different.

BRADFORD'S INJURY SHAKES UP BCS RACE (Los Angeles Times, Sept. 10) - Oklahoma's Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback will miss time with a shoulder separation. Just how long he's out will impact the Sooners and also possibly the BCS hopes of Texas and Oklahoma State.

SCRAM, BIG EAST, MAKE WAY FOR MWC (HowtoWatchSports.com, Sept. 10) - The BCS is an unfair, monopolistic, money-driven system with a million flaws. But here’s a new one that’s coming to a head this season. The Big East has no business being included in the BCS while the Mountain West Conference is excluded.

ACC-ELERATED DECLINE (Saurian Sagacity, Sept. 6) - With conferences like the Mountain West on the rise, the argument for blowing up the current BCS system continues to gain strength, especially when fading powers like the ACC get automatic BCS admittance for their conference champion.

USC Makes Its Move Up BCS Standings

Oklahoma's loss as expected dropped the Sooners out of the top 10, but the team that made the most of the first weekend is USC.

In the latest BCS standings (as simulated by the Guru), the Trojans vaulted past Texas into the No. 2 spot. In fact, USC has a pretty healthy margin on the Longhorns and may threaten Florida at No. 1 with a victory at Ohio State on Saturday.

The Trojans are currently third in the two polls, but are ranked first (Sagarin), second (Massey MOV) and third (Billingsley) in the three BCS computers that have released its ratings. Among 38 computer rankings, USC has a median ranking of 2.

Brigham Young moved into the top 10, but did not jump as high as first projected, settling in at No. 8. Despite good computer rankings (No. 3 on Sagarin, No. 4 on Billingsley), the Cougars are hurt by their standings in the polls, checking in at No. 9 in the AP Poll, and No. 12 in the Coaches Poll.

This is very damaging news for BYU's national title aspirations. What's appalling about the always-dubious Coaches Poll is not just BYU's placement (at No. 12 after essentially a road win vs. then-No. 3 Oklahoma?) but the total votes it received, which accounts for one third of the BCS formula.

BYU got 96% of the points of No. 5 Oklahoma State in the AP Poll, meaning that the Cougars really aren't that far off from being in the top 5. But in the Coaches Poll, they received only 66% of the points of No. 5 Penn State, meaning that unless teams ahead of the Cougars start losing, they might have a hard time making up the deficit. And of course, the AP Poll is not in the BCS standings, but the Coaches Poll is.

BYU is, however, one spot ahead of Boise State, in a race for the lone guaranteed spot for a non-BCS conference team. The Cougars' victory over OU stole Boise's thunder, whose home win over Oregon paled in comparison. The Broncos are still ahead of BYU in the Coaches Poll, but the weakness of their remaining schedule will catch up to them (at least in the computers) should both teams stay undefeated.

With BYU, Boise State, TCU (No. 14) and Utah (No. 15) all in the top 15, the debate over BCS's automatic qualification process will be further intensified. These four Coalition teams (three from the Mountain West) are ahead of the highest rated ACC (Virginia Tech at No. 16) and Big East (Cincinnati at No. 20) teams.

Notre Dame checks in at No. 23, getting its perch solely on the strength of poll numbers. The Irish are ranked Nos. 35, 37 and 56 on the three BCS computers with a median ranking of No. 30 on other computers. As its schedule isn't exactly murderers' row, Notre Dame's BCS chances will be heavily influenced by how much the pollsters fall for its yesteryear mystique.

What to Do About BYU?

In 1984, BYU went 13-0 and won the national championship - the last consensus national title for any school not in the current BCS conferences. What's largely forgotten is that the Cougars played only four teams that finished with a winning record, the best being Air Force's 8-4.

That won't be the case this year.

Should BYU go undefeated this regular season, its 13th game should be for the BCS national title, because its schedule would be worthy for it.

After upsetting Oklahoma, 14-13, at Cowboys Stadium last night, the Cougars should be ranked in the top five of the polls, the most critical element comprising the BCS standings formula. If they fail to crack the top five, then the Mountain West Conference's mounting grievances against the BCS will have the fiercest argument yet.

Consider -

* Despite being listed as a neutral-site game, last night's affair was a de facto OU home game, with Norman only 200 miles away and the Metroplex a natural habitat for OU alums.

* Never mind that Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford was hurt on the final play from scrimmage in the first half. When the 2008 Heisman winner was playing, OU managed only 10 points.

* In the fourth quarter, after OU got the ball on a turnover at the BYU 27, it failed to score a touchdown to put the game away. The Cougars stuffed the Sooners six times inside the 10 (three times inside the 2) to force a field goal.

* Despite having two 1,000-yard rushers in the backfield, the Sooners ran for only 118 yards. They were outgained by nearly 100 yards as BYU held the ball for almost 38 minutes.

It's unfortunate that Bradford got hurt, but don't kid yourself that OU would've won that game going away had he stayed healthy. BYU earned that victory, fair and square - injuries are part of the game.

BYU should be in the top 5 after this victory, and its remaining schedule is strong enough for the Cougars to make a case for the BCS title game should they stay undefeated. They play Florida State, TCU and Utah, all three teams currently in the AP top 20. By contrast, Florida, everyone's favorite to repeat as BCS champions, will play only two teams that will be in the top 20 in next week's poll (and please spare me the 'but SEC is the toughest conference in the galaxy' fallacy*).

Certainly the season just got started and BYU can easily suffer a loss (or two or three) along the way and render this whole debate moot. But at this point in time, with what's already done, the Cougars deserve recognition as a top 5 team.

One other side effect from BYU's upset win: Two nights ago, Boise State seemed poised to claim a BCS spot, after beating Oregon and with a favorable schedule ahead. But with BYU's victory, the Broncos may finish the regular season undefeated and not get a BCS bowl berth for a second consecutive season.

That would hurt a lot more than a LeGarrette Blount sucker punch.


*In the realm of logic, this is called "begging the question." It usually goes like this:

SEC Apologist: The SEC has the best teams in the country.
SEC Skeptic: How do you know?
SEC Apologist: Because week-in and week-out they have to play the toughest teams in the country.
SEC Skeptic: How do you know these are the toughest teams?
SEC Apologist: Because they play in the SEC, the toughest conference in the country.

This is not to say that the SEC doesn't have good teams, it's just that the league has its bottom feeders like all other leagues. And since top SEC teams get to feast on these weaklings, the argument that their schedules are tougher than any other doesn't hold water.

Do you know when's the last time Florida played a nonconference game against a BCS conference team outside of the state of Florida? Try 1991, at Syracuse, in a 38-21 loss. But this will be the topic for another day.

Notes on Preseason BCS Standings

At last, the Guru has published the 2009 BCS Standings, preseason edition. There are a few items of note that may impact the standings throughout the season.

But first, the methodology. This is the third season I'm running a simulated preseason standings, and this model isn't all that different from the '07 and '08 versions. The AP Poll is used in place of the Harris Poll, and as I noted in painstaking detail previously, this is a no-brainer.

Three of the six computers release preseason rankings - Massey, Sagarin and Billingsley. Their ratings are used in the standings. Three others - Colley (mid-September), Anderson & Hester (late September) and Wolfe (mid-October) - don't release theirs until later in the season, so I used the median ranking of each team, from 29 computers, in their place.

Now, onto the observations:

* The top of the standings fairly resembles the two human polls, with Florida well ahead, followed by Texas, Oklahoma and USC. It's worth noting that the computers are already favoring the Trojans over the two Big 12 rivals. USC is barely behind Oklahoma (.0044) and not too far back from Texas (.0160), either. A victory at Ohio State will probably be enough to vault USC into #2 in the BCS standings.

* Ole Miss, the early darling of the human polls, is getting no love from the computers (not to mention the BlogPoll). While Houston Nutt's Rebels are in the top 10 in the Coaches (#10) and AP (#8) polls, it's only #13 in Billingsley, #23 in Massey and #43 (and therefore no points) in Sagarin. Since they don't play anyone of consequence until Oct. 10 against Alabama, it'll stay that way for a while.

* The three highest rated non-BCS teams - Boise State, TCU and Utah - are clustered at #15-#17, roughly corresponding their places in the human polls. Utah is getting a bit more computer juice, as residuals from its undefeated 2008 season, ranking as absurdly high as #3 in Billingsley. It will be a tall order, as usual, to work from this position into any sort of a run at a spot in the BCS championship game.

* Notre Dame is given a modicum of respect by the human polls, at #23 for both. The computers just spat on the Irish - #59 in Billingsley, #51 in Massey, #48 in Sagarin and a median ranking of #47 for all computers. In order to make it into a BCS bowl game, Notre Dame will have to either beat USC or go no worse than 10-2.

* The initial standings include a ridiculous 62 teams, more than half of Division I-A teams. Tulsa rounds out the standings with its single vote in the AP Poll, which trumped the single votes for Michigan (even with all that extra practice time) and Minnesota in the Coaches Poll.

Why the AP Poll Still Matters

The Associated Press top 25 was released over the weekend. And it didn't make much of a splash aside from that Florida got an unprecedented 58 of 60 first-place votes.

But don't be fooled. Even in the BCS Era, the AP Poll still matters. A lot.

Ever since the AP asked (or more accurately, demanded) out of the BCS standings after the 2004 season, the most venerable and prestigious college football poll seemed to have taken a backseat. To the coaches poll, for sure. But also to the Harris Poll, which was founded for no other reason than to replace AP in the BCS standings.

On so many levels, however, the AP Poll is still very influential:

1. It has more credibility than any other poll: The AP poll began in 1936, long before the coaches poll (1950) and never mind the Harris poll (2005). It has released a weekly ranking with a final poll without interruption, through war and peace. Its voters' identities are disclosed to the public, as are their ballots. Contrast that with the decidedly non-transparent process of the Coaches Poll.

The Associated Press continues to crown its champions, regardless of other polls or arrangements. It's been around long before the BCS and it might outlast the BCS. There's always a possibility that the BCS may disband after the next contract runs out - even if it's a slim one. But the AP Poll? It'll always be there.

2. It's still used by most of the media: Don't forget, the AP is the media poll. All print publications and most of the electronic media use the AP poll as a reference. The purpose of the BCS standings is to produce two teams for the BCS national title game and other BCS bowl games, as evidenced by its lack of a season-ending standings. Case-in-point: Utah finished No. 2 in the AP Poll and No. 3 in the Coaches Poll last season. Guess which one was always cited in this spring's BCS discussions?

3. The Harris Poll is basically an AP Poll surrogate: Never mind that the Harris Poll doesn't come out until late September and its voters are supposedly keeping an open mind by watching a few weeks' worth of games before they vote.

Make no mistake, Harris voters are greatly influenced by the AP poll. They can't help it. They have to start somewhere.

AP Poll Archive (one of the Guru's most favored go-to sources) did the research. And as you can see, there's not much of a difference between Harris Poll rankings and the AP ones. In fact, in its four seasons of existence, there has been just three minor variations in its final regular-season top 10, and none among the top four. In 2008, the two polls had identical top 10s at the end of the regular season.

4. AP still crowns a champion: Who was the national champion in 2003? The majority of the country would acknowlege a split, with many siding with USC over LSU (to the eternal consternation of Tigers fans). Last year, had Oklahoma defeated Florida in the BCS title game, the AP might've crowned Utah as the champion over OU, who would've been the BCS champion.

For as long as AP crowns its own champion, there is always a possibility of a split title. And the AP champion would be every bit as legitimate as the BCS champion. Look at it another way - The BCS merely produces a champion for the Coaches Poll, one that by all counts an inferior one to the AP Poll.

This list of national champions will always be the one that shows up in your hometown newspaper (unless you're in Louisiana) - for as long as newspapers exist. That's why the AP Poll still matters.

BCS Weekly News Roundup (Aug. 23)

ASSOCIATED PRESS PRESEASON TOP 25 (CBS Sports, Aug. 23) - Florida received an unprecedented 58 of 60 first-place votes and was two points short of being the consensus preseason No. 1.

MOUNTAIN WEST URGES BCS ACTION (Denver Post, Aug. 21) - Mountain West Conference commissioner Craig Thompson reiterated his cause to change the selection process for the BCS bowl games to include qualified teams from all conferences. Earlier this year, Thompson presented a proposal to the BCS committee that was turned down. "We've talked all we can," Thompson said.

GATOR BOWL DROPS BIG EAST, GOES FOR BIG TEN (Florida Times-Union, Aug. 19) - The Gator Bowl and the Big East Conference have parted ways after 14 years, clearing the way for new conference affiliations in Jacksonville's New Year's Day bowl that will include some combination of the Atlantic Coast Conference, Southeastern Conference and the Big Ten.

SEC'S JOKE OF A CUPCAKE SCHEDULE (Birmingham News, Aug. 17) - When the SEC schedules non-conference games, it's a joke. It's ought to be embarrassing. This is the best conference in the nation, a league that wants for nothing, a league with not only record attendance but a record TV deal. But this non-conference schedule, ugghhh, it's awful.