Saturday, October 20, 2012

Ducks Keep Winning and Keep Slipping

Should Oregon start to worry?

Another week. Another commanding victory. Another solid No. 2 ranking in the two BCS-relevant polls. Yet, the Ducks might find themselves falling another spot in the BCS standings, slipping behind Kansas State to No. 4.

There is no question that the SEC will again occupy the top two spots in the standings when they're released Sunday at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, after Alabama eased past Tennessee and Florida impressively trounced South Carolina. But Oregon, despite destroying a decent Arizona State team on Thursday, might slip down from its No. 3 slot in last week's BCS standings.

Kansas State will probably gain enough cushion in the computers after blasting West Virginia to edge the Ducks this week. And at least for the short term, Oregon will not be able to do much to untangle from this predicament as it will host Pac-12 patsy Colorado next week.

But what about in the long term? Will a 13-0 Oregon team fail to make it to the BCS championship game?

The possibility certainly exists, and it's not even all that improbable. Kansas State is in the driver's seat to win the Big 12, and its chances of winning it without a loss are improving each week. The Wildcats have already beaten both Oklahoma and West Virginia and play three of their final five games at home. Their two road games are against a team without its top quarterback (TCU) and another without a defense (Baylor). K-State also doesn't have to deal with a conference championship game that serves as an additional roadblock.

And then there's the matter of Notre Dame, whose season basically comes down to two games - next week at Oklahoma and the final regular-season game at USC. Should K-State slip up in the final five games of the season, the Irish will swoop in to grab the poll points to close the gap on Oregon. With its superior computer rankings, Notre Dame also might sneak past the Ducks when other unbeatens stumble.

The projected BCS standings top 15:

1. Alabama, 2. Florida, 3. Kansas State, 4. Oregon, 5. Notre Dame, 6. LSU, 7, Oregon State, 8. Oklahoma, 9. USC, 10. Georgia, 11. Mississippi State, 12. South Carolina, 13. Florida State, 14. Rutgers, 15. Texas Tech.



Henry Louis Gomez said...

Poor ducks. Ha.mi

Anonymous said...

Well the big 12 is the toughest conference in the eyes of the computers. If Kansas State wins out, they'll have 2-3 more wins vs ranked teams than Oregon will. But still, the human polls might keep them out. Just like how the computers favored Oklahoma State and their SOS over Alabama last year but the human polls favored Bama for some reason. Logic and reasoning doesn't always win out. I still can't wait to see espns faces if Oregon is #4. They LOVE Oregon and are going to be furious.

Irv said...

If this isn't further evidence that the BCS is a joke, I don't know what is. Oregon may be second to Alabama (emphasis on may be), but nobody else in the country is even close to Oregon's level.

Anonymous said...

Oregon doesn't struggle against team like Iowa State, BYU and Bowling Green. They blow them out.

RIP BCS system. Your days are numbered.

The Guru said...

Chip Kelly may regret not running up the score on ASU. They suffered significant loss in vote shares in the two polls while holding on to No. 2. You can't count on these voters to actually pay attention. They just looked at ASU scoring 21 points and automatically docked Oregon.

Anonymous said...

No way should K-State go over Oregon if for nothing more than the fact that they chickened out and cancelled a game with Oregon that would have been played this season otherwise. Voters will hopefully take this into account and provide the cushion needed to keep the Ducks ahead.

Anonymous said...

Oregon looks good because they had very weak schedule. 3 cupcakes and 4 weak conference opponents.

UW, WSU, UA and ASU are 3-13 in conference play.

Oregon has zero wins over current Top 25 BCS teams. While K-State has three. One of the teams K-State has beaten, Oklahoma, has two wins over current Top 25 BCS teams. That's why K-State will jump over Oregon.

kjotoole said...

I do like the ranking of teams, it makes it fun to see how strong a team is in the eyes of the experts (I wish the NFL did it). But don't let the rankings determine the match-up for the championship! We need a play-off system! Or maybe a hybrid - The top ranked 16 teams have a playoff, even if the ranking of the 16 is BCS-based.

Anonymous said...

don't know why everyone thinks once the bcd current system is done things will be any better. apparently we will have a committee that will choose the top four teams. This thing will be just as jacked up pro sec as it is now. I mean really? How many teams from the SEC are ranked high right now? Really everyone? The voters will do anything they can to ensure 2 sec teams will be 1/2. what a joke

Anonymous said...

KSU talking about their level of competition they played? Yes Iowa State and West Virginia were once ranked, but aren't anymore because in reality they aren't that good. You could say the same thing about Oregon. ASU, UW, UA, were all once ranked. In fact crappy Arizona blew away Oklahoma State (a team with a winning record in the Big 12). This Ducks team is routinely playing their bench before halftime. No one is scoring on them, until the bench comes in usually by the 2nd quarter. I guess this whole argument could have been solved if KSU didn't get scared and cancel their game against Oregon this year.