Friday, December 17, 2010

Bowling With the Guru (Third Time's the Charm?)

Albert Einstein once remarked that insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

So for the third time in four years, the Guru will attempt to handicap all the bowl games despite that the first two predictions have turned out to be disastrously off-the-mark.

I may be crazy here (didn't he just already say that?), but I think this time it will be different. In fact, I am doubling down this year. Not only am I picking the games, I'm picking them against the spread.

Before they drag me away in a straitjacket to Nurse Ratched's padded white room, here are the Guru's fearless predictions for the 2010 bowl season:

Shaky Picks
(I don't feel great about these games, but am picking them for the heck of it):
  • New Orleans: Troy -2.5 over Ohio
  • Poinsettia: San Diego State - 4.5 over Navy
  • Independence: Air Force -3 over Georgia Tech
  • Pinstripe: Kansas State +1 over Syracuse
  • Chick-fil-A: Florida State +3 over South Carolina
  • Rose: TCU -1.5 over Wisconsin
  • Sugar: Arkansas +3.5 over Ohio State
  • Cotton: LSU -2 over Texas A&M
  • BBVA Compass: Kentucky +3 over Pittsburgh
  • BCS Championship: Auburn -3.5 over Oregon (A month ago I would've picked Oregon to win this game outright, but Auburn has played better of late and Cam Newton just can't be stopped, not even by the NCAA)

Pretty Good Picks

(I would wager a small amount on these games, maybe $22 to win $20)
  • Beef-O-Brady: Southern Miss +3 over Louisville
  • Las Vegas: Boise State +18 over Utah
  • Little Caesars: Florida International +1.5 over Toledo
  • Champs Sports: West Virginia -3 over NC State
  • Insight: Missouri -1 over Iowa
  • Military: Maryland -7.5 over East Carolina
  • Alamo: Oklahoma State -6 over Arizona
  • Music City: Tennessee +2 over North Carolina
  • Holiday: Washington +15 over Nebraska
  • Meineke Car Care: South Florida +5 over Clemson
  • Sun: Notre Dame +3 over Miami (Fla.)
  • Outback: Florida -7.5 over Penn State
  • Fiesta: Oklahoma -17 over Connecticut
  • Orange: Stanford -3.5 over Virginia Tech
  • Middle Tennessee State +1 over Miami (Ohio)

Almost Sure-Thing Picks
(I wouldn't bet the house on it, but maybe a Benjamin)
  • New Mexico: BYU -11.5 over UTEP
  • Humanitarian: Fresno State +1 over Northern Illinois (NIU has a good record, but whom have the Huskies played?)
  • Hawaii: Hawaii -11 over Tulsa (This is a huge home field advantage, bigger than ND at South Bend)
  • Texas: Baylor -1 over Illinois
  • Armed Forces: SMU -8 over Army (Like Hawaii, a literal home game for the Mustangs)
  • Liberty: Georgia -7 over Central Florida
  • Kraft Fight Hunger: Nevada -4.5 over Boston College (When will the Pack get some love from the national media?)

Stone-Cold Locks
(Need I say more?)
  • Ticket City: Texas Tech -10 over Northwestern (It's a lot of points to lay, but the banged-up Wildcats have no chance in a game just about on the Red Raiders' turf)
  • CapitalOne: Alabama -10 over Michigan State (Nick Saban didn't leave Sparty so he could lose a game like this)
  • Gator: Mississippi State -4.5 over Michigan (The end of RichRod. Hello, Harbaugh!)

Let's come back on Jan. 11 to see if Einstein was right.


Anonymous said...

The fact that you were so wrong in the past shows your bias against the SEC. This time around, I see you're taking Auburn to win. Good choice -- not only will they win, it will be a total blowout.

Anonymous said...

In the shaky pick section, FSU is playing South Carolina, not UGA

The Guru said...

Thanks for catching that, it's now corrected.

Anonymous said...

How can northern illinois be in 2 bowl games?

Underdog Rally said...

I think in the past there have been comments on how some teams take a loss traveling to bowls (travel costs, ticket costs, hotel obligations at fixed rates), but I think this is probably the worst case scenario:

Big surprise, UConn and Oklahoma are having trouble selling their allocated tickets. The details about obligations and absorbed costs remind me of the Simpsons episode where the town of Springfield bleeds a Hollywood movie production dry.

nampaboat said...

WOW I would like take Boise State +18 where do I place my bet ? GO BRONCOS

reamon said...

Your record as of 12/31 before the Chick-fil-a:

Shaky: 3-1 (6 left)

Pretty Good: 7-4 (4 left)

Almost Sure Thing: 1-5 (1 left)

Stone Cold Locks: 0-0 (3 left)

11-10 overall.

Maybe your Stone Cold Locks will fare better than your Almost Sure Things! :-)