Sunday, November 24, 2013

Road to BCS Title Game for 9 Contenders

With just two weeks left in the 2013 regular season, the BCS title game matchup will be decided by a series of elimination games. Given the opponents and circumstances with these games, it's reasonable to deduce that at this point, only the three undefeated and up to six other one-loss BCS conference teams are still in the hunt.

So, in order of probability, these are the nine teams and what they must do to reach the BCS championship game (rankings in the latest BCS standings):

No. 2 Florida State (90%) - The Seminoles will be facing a toothless Florida team in disarray at the Swamp, and then the Coastal Division winner (Duke or Virginia Tech, most likely) in the ACC championship game. Even without quarterback Jameis Winston, whose legal status is up in the air, FSU will be double-digit favorites in both games. And if he does play, Winston has shown a Kobe-esque focus as he's performed even better with all the distractions.

No. 1 Alabama (75%) - Of the three undefeated teams, the two-time defending champion faces the toughest road to a third straight BCS title-game appearance. The Tide will have to win the Iron Bowl at one-loss Auburn and then defeat either Missouri or South Carolina in the SEC title game. Unlike in the past two seasons, there is no scenario that exists that would allow Alabama to lose one of those games and still back-door its way into the title game.

No. 3 Ohio State (18%) - The Buckeyes should have no trouble with a fast fading Michigan team, even at the Big House. A one-loss Michigan State will pose problems in the Big Ten title game and that's really the only game they'd be in danger of losing. But even if it goes 25-0 under Urban Meyer over two seasons, Ohio State will miss out on the BCS title game again without an Alabama or FSU loss. On the other hand, it will not be in danger of being jumped by any one-loss team.


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