1453. 1644. 1917. And now, Halloween 2009.
Like the Byzantine, Ming and Romanov empires, all good things must come to an end. Such was the case for the Trojan Dynasty that has ruled the Pac-10 since 2002.
In retrospect, it was easy to see that this was a rebuilding year for USC. It lost most of its defensive stalwarts, including an entire linebacking corps that went among the first 38 picks in the NFL draft. It lost its star quarterback, who now hot dogs it for the New York Jets. It even lost its offensive coordinator to a rival Pac-10 school.
But because it's USC, it was assumed that it'd go on like business as usual ... until Saturday night, when the Oregon Ducks formally pronounced the fin de siecle with a resounding quack.
Since Pete Carroll's arrival in 2001, the Trojans have never been on the business end of a beatdown ... until Saturday night. Oregon's 47-20 victory was by far the worst loss in the Carroll Era (they have lost by double digits just once previously, by 11 to Notre Dame in 2001). It was also the most points the Trojans have ever allowed under Carroll (and the most since 1996).
The loss to Oregon effectively ends USC's bid for a short ride to Pasadena - either for the Rose Bowl or the BCS title game. The Trojans, of course, are still very much alive for a BCS bowl bid, possibly the Fiesta, but they won't win the Pac-10 this year.
The shame is that while Oregon will go on and claim the Rose Bowl bid, it almost certainly has no chance of claiming a spot in the BCS title game, despite playing better than anyone in the country at the moment. The Ducks, after a difficult season-opening loss at Boise State, have ruled the Pac-10 the way USC used to, outscoring their five conference foes by a score of 208-58.
Meanwhile, Iowa's BCS title hopes are alive and well despite yet another shaky performance. Some voters, however, are bound to elevate the Hawkeyes on their ballots based on that deceiving 42-24 final score over Indiana.
But ask yourself this: Is there any doubt which team is better, has played better, and has played better competition? If Iowa were to meet Oregon on a neutral field next week, who would be a double-digit favorite?
It's not Iowa. And the BCS is most definitely not heaven.
Projected BCS Standings:
1. Florida, 2. Alabama, 3. Texas, 4. Iowa, 5. TCU, 6. Boise State, 7. Cincinnati, 8. Oregon, 9. LSU, 10. Penn State, 11. Georgia Tech, 12. USC, 13. Ohio State, 14. Pittsburgh, 15. Utah.
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Friday, October 30, 2009
Who's Your (Sugar) Daddy?
Mike Gundy may be a man now (at least he thinks so), but part of his everyday challenge is very much the burden foisted upon every boy the world over - making his daddy proud.
Gundy's daddy, metaphorically speaking, of course, is T. Boone Pickens, a Texas oil man. A man who's given over a quarter of a billion bucks to the Oklahoma State athletic program. A man whose name graces the Cowboys' brand-spanking new stadium.
And Gundy has no better opportunity to please his (sugar) daddy than this week.
Oklahoma State's football program, thanks to the largess of Pickens, is trying to emerge from the shadows of Oklahoma and Texas and become a bona fide powerhouse in the Big 12. The trouble is, in order to be in their company, you have to beat them at least once in awhile.
Gundy has never beaten either since taking over as the Cowboys head coach in 2005. In fact, OSU last defeated Oklahoma in 2002 and has not won against Texas since 1997, which was the only time in history that the Cowboys managed to defeat both in the same season.
They have a chance to rewrite some history, beginning Saturday night when the Longhorns visit Boone Pickens Stadium, an invasion that's certain to draw a record crowd in Stillwater.
Texas is ranked No. 3, in line for its first BCS title game berth since 2005, and favored by 9 1/2 points. But the Cowboys, whose lone loss was at home to Houston, can seize control of the Big 12 South race with an upset victory. That would put them on course for the school's first Big 12 title, first BCS bowl game, and first 10-win season, ever.
It's a lot to play for. It's something to make your daddy real proud ... and rest assured he'll be there, since he never misses a game.
By all accounts, Pickens has not been the meddling type, but you'd be a fool to think that a man who's given OSU $400 million over the years doesn't exert some influence. Gundy, for example, got a new seven-year contract worth $15.7 million at the end of last season. We're just guessing that some (if not most) of that money comes out of Pickens' pocket.
For now, Gundy will have earn his keep without All-American wideout Dez Bryant, who has been declared ineligible for the rest of the season by the unforgiving NCAA. You see, even at OSU, there is a higher power that even Pickens' billions can't buy.
★★★★★ GAME OF THE WEEK: USC at Oregon, 8 p.m. ET (ABC). As important as the Texas-OSU game is, it doesn't quite take the top billing. Oregon has a chance to end USC's seven-year reign as the Pac-10's top dog, something the Ducks thought they had accomplished in 2007, but couldn't quite finish the job. The Trojans, despite playing a freshman quarterback, are in the thick of the BCS title race. A USC win at Autzen Stadium all but locks up, at the minimum, a record eighth straight trip to a BCS bowl.
★★★★ FOUR-STAR GAME: Texas at Oklahoma State, 8 p.m. ET (ABC). The Longhorns have beaten the Cowboys in the last 11 meetings and are 21-2 all-time against OSU. But the Cowboys have made things interesting of late, losing only 28-24 last year and dropping a 38-35 decision in 2007 after blowing a 21-point fourth-quarter lead. The winner of this game will effectively claim the Big 12 South and be a heavy favorite in the conference title game.
★★★ THREE-STAR GAME: Georgia vs. Florida, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS). The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party has been reduced to merely The Coke-Zero Tailgate Hangout as the recession and Georgia's mediocrity both have put a damper on this rivalry. The Gators are still acting mad about the entire-team celebration stunt from two years ago. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are not acting or saying anything for fear of a repeat of last year's beatdown.
★★ TWO-STAR GAME: Indiana at Iowa, noon p.m. ET (ESPN). Will Iowa's luck finally run out? They have pushed the envelope in just about every game this season, including last week's Houdini-like escape against Michigan State. This year's Hoosiers are actually not half bad, and if the Hawkeyes are already dreaming about the BCS or the Rose Bowl, they could be in for a sudden and rude awakening.
★ ONE-STAR GAME: Cincinnati at Syracuse, noon ET (ESPNU). The Bearcats seem to be on a collision course with Pittsburgh in the season finale for the Big East crown and a BCS bowl berth. But they still have a few more obstacles to overcome before they can get there and aim for an undefeated season. Cincy's task this week? Beat a standout basketball star in the biggest on-campus basketball arena.
Gundy's daddy, metaphorically speaking, of course, is T. Boone Pickens, a Texas oil man. A man who's given over a quarter of a billion bucks to the Oklahoma State athletic program. A man whose name graces the Cowboys' brand-spanking new stadium.
And Gundy has no better opportunity to please his (sugar) daddy than this week.
Oklahoma State's football program, thanks to the largess of Pickens, is trying to emerge from the shadows of Oklahoma and Texas and become a bona fide powerhouse in the Big 12. The trouble is, in order to be in their company, you have to beat them at least once in awhile.
Gundy has never beaten either since taking over as the Cowboys head coach in 2005. In fact, OSU last defeated Oklahoma in 2002 and has not won against Texas since 1997, which was the only time in history that the Cowboys managed to defeat both in the same season.
They have a chance to rewrite some history, beginning Saturday night when the Longhorns visit Boone Pickens Stadium, an invasion that's certain to draw a record crowd in Stillwater.
Texas is ranked No. 3, in line for its first BCS title game berth since 2005, and favored by 9 1/2 points. But the Cowboys, whose lone loss was at home to Houston, can seize control of the Big 12 South race with an upset victory. That would put them on course for the school's first Big 12 title, first BCS bowl game, and first 10-win season, ever.
It's a lot to play for. It's something to make your daddy real proud ... and rest assured he'll be there, since he never misses a game.
By all accounts, Pickens has not been the meddling type, but you'd be a fool to think that a man who's given OSU $400 million over the years doesn't exert some influence. Gundy, for example, got a new seven-year contract worth $15.7 million at the end of last season. We're just guessing that some (if not most) of that money comes out of Pickens' pocket.
For now, Gundy will have earn his keep without All-American wideout Dez Bryant, who has been declared ineligible for the rest of the season by the unforgiving NCAA. You see, even at OSU, there is a higher power that even Pickens' billions can't buy.
★★★★★ GAME OF THE WEEK: USC at Oregon, 8 p.m. ET (ABC). As important as the Texas-OSU game is, it doesn't quite take the top billing. Oregon has a chance to end USC's seven-year reign as the Pac-10's top dog, something the Ducks thought they had accomplished in 2007, but couldn't quite finish the job. The Trojans, despite playing a freshman quarterback, are in the thick of the BCS title race. A USC win at Autzen Stadium all but locks up, at the minimum, a record eighth straight trip to a BCS bowl.
★★★★ FOUR-STAR GAME: Texas at Oklahoma State, 8 p.m. ET (ABC). The Longhorns have beaten the Cowboys in the last 11 meetings and are 21-2 all-time against OSU. But the Cowboys have made things interesting of late, losing only 28-24 last year and dropping a 38-35 decision in 2007 after blowing a 21-point fourth-quarter lead. The winner of this game will effectively claim the Big 12 South and be a heavy favorite in the conference title game.
★★★ THREE-STAR GAME: Georgia vs. Florida, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS). The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party has been reduced to merely The Coke-Zero Tailgate Hangout as the recession and Georgia's mediocrity both have put a damper on this rivalry. The Gators are still acting mad about the entire-team celebration stunt from two years ago. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are not acting or saying anything for fear of a repeat of last year's beatdown.
★★ TWO-STAR GAME: Indiana at Iowa, noon p.m. ET (ESPN). Will Iowa's luck finally run out? They have pushed the envelope in just about every game this season, including last week's Houdini-like escape against Michigan State. This year's Hoosiers are actually not half bad, and if the Hawkeyes are already dreaming about the BCS or the Rose Bowl, they could be in for a sudden and rude awakening.
★ ONE-STAR GAME: Cincinnati at Syracuse, noon ET (ESPNU). The Bearcats seem to be on a collision course with Pittsburgh in the season finale for the Big East crown and a BCS bowl berth. But they still have a few more obstacles to overcome before they can get there and aim for an undefeated season. Cincy's task this week? Beat a standout basketball star in the biggest on-campus basketball arena.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Iowa Lacks Style ... Does It Lack Substance?
After the 2001 season, the BCS forced the computers remaining in the BCS formula to remove margin of victory (MOV) as an element in their respective algorithms. The reason, ostensibly, is that it discourages teams from running up the score since they wouldn't benefit from it.
Well, they should've asked all the pollsters to remove their eyeballs so they can only check the scores in Braille.
We're more than halfway done in the 2009 season, and the BCS Standings provides a clear picture: Style points matter. Why else would Iowa be ranked fourth despite being the near-unanimous choice as the top team by the computers?
The Hawkeyes may be 8-0, but they got to 8-0 in the ugliest fashion imaginable. They had to block two field goals against I-AA Northern Iowa (5-3, ranked 14th in the I-AA poll). They looked listless against Arkansas State (2-4, sixth in the Sun Belt). They escaped against Michigan, thanks to five Wolverines turnovers, including a game-killing interception in the final minute. And they needed the very last second to beat Michigan State last week.
The computers may love Iowa, but clearly the voters don't. The Hawkeyes are ranked eighth in both the Harris and Coaches polls, the lowest among the seven remaining unbeaten teams and also behind one-loss USC.
The less-than-stylish victories may ultimately cost Iowa a shot at the BCS national championship. There is a pretty wide gulf between the Hawkeyes and No. 3 Texas, the team poised to face the SEC winner (between Florida and Alabama) in the BCS title game. Iowa's computer points have maxed out, meaning it could only lose ground in this department against all other contenders.
The question is: Will they gain on the competition in the two polls? (I've been admonished by a reader for using the redundant "human polls," so I'm honoring his wish.)
They have one chance, and one chance only, to do that. The Hawkeyes have four games remaining, three at home against mediocre Big Ten foes (Indiana, Northwestern, Minnesota, combined 13-11) - they can only be hurt by not winning these games impressively. Their only road game, at Ohio State on Nov. 14, appears to be only road block to an undefeated season.
A resounding win over the Buckeyes will do wonders for Iowa. It will all but guarantee that the Hawkeyes will stay ahead of the Trojans, who eeked out an 18-15 win at Columbus earlier in the season. That also will pave the way for them to stay clear of all other unbeaten teams. It might even give them enough of a boost to jump Texas.
Toward the end of each season, the BCS becomes all about the polls, and therefore all about style. For the judges in this beauty pagaent, ugly victories count for about as much as moral victories.
Well, they should've asked all the pollsters to remove their eyeballs so they can only check the scores in Braille.
We're more than halfway done in the 2009 season, and the BCS Standings provides a clear picture: Style points matter. Why else would Iowa be ranked fourth despite being the near-unanimous choice as the top team by the computers?
The Hawkeyes may be 8-0, but they got to 8-0 in the ugliest fashion imaginable. They had to block two field goals against I-AA Northern Iowa (5-3, ranked 14th in the I-AA poll). They looked listless against Arkansas State (2-4, sixth in the Sun Belt). They escaped against Michigan, thanks to five Wolverines turnovers, including a game-killing interception in the final minute. And they needed the very last second to beat Michigan State last week.
BCS Automatic Qualifier Analysis - Now Updated!
The less-than-stylish victories may ultimately cost Iowa a shot at the BCS national championship. There is a pretty wide gulf between the Hawkeyes and No. 3 Texas, the team poised to face the SEC winner (between Florida and Alabama) in the BCS title game. Iowa's computer points have maxed out, meaning it could only lose ground in this department against all other contenders.
The question is: Will they gain on the competition in the two polls? (I've been admonished by a reader for using the redundant "human polls," so I'm honoring his wish.)
They have one chance, and one chance only, to do that. The Hawkeyes have four games remaining, three at home against mediocre Big Ten foes (Indiana, Northwestern, Minnesota, combined 13-11) - they can only be hurt by not winning these games impressively. Their only road game, at Ohio State on Nov. 14, appears to be only road block to an undefeated season.
A resounding win over the Buckeyes will do wonders for Iowa. It will all but guarantee that the Hawkeyes will stay ahead of the Trojans, who eeked out an 18-15 win at Columbus earlier in the season. That also will pave the way for them to stay clear of all other unbeaten teams. It might even give them enough of a boost to jump Texas.
Toward the end of each season, the BCS becomes all about the polls, and therefore all about style. For the judges in this beauty pagaent, ugly victories count for about as much as moral victories.
Monday, October 26, 2009
The Guru's Report Card (Updated)
The Guru's Report Card, through the second BCS Standings in 2009:
The only significant error this week is the misplacement of USC. I thought the Trojans would lose a few votes because of their closer-than-expected home victory over Oregon State. That didn't happen, so they are a couple of spots higher than my projections. The rest are pretty much spot-on, if you don't mind me saying so myself.
At least I'm willing to stake my reputation each week to run these projections, unlike this guy. (Enough beating a dead horse, there'll be no more trashing of Brad Edwards ... until next week.)
The only significant error this week is the misplacement of USC. I thought the Trojans would lose a few votes because of their closer-than-expected home victory over Oregon State. That didn't happen, so they are a couple of spots higher than my projections. The rest are pretty much spot-on, if you don't mind me saying so myself.
At least I'm willing to stake my reputation each week to run these projections, unlike this guy. (Enough beating a dead horse, there'll be no more trashing of Brad Edwards ... until next week.)
Sunday, October 25, 2009
The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 8)
The Guru's Week 8 BlogPoll ballot, with more in-depth explanations below:
Dropped Out: Brigham Young (#14), Texas Tech (#22), South Florida (#23), Kansas (#25).
* First a disclaimer, since some of the new readers seem a bit confused about the difference between BCS Standings Projections and the BlogPoll ballot: The projections are my estimations on what the upcoming BCS Standings will look like, based on projected computer ratings and an educated forecast of the two polls. It's NOT an opinion. The BlogPoll ballot, which is new for this season, is my own personal vote and is COMPLETELY my opinion.
* Alabama is still No. 1 on my ballot, the close game with Tennessee notwithstanding. It amuses me that somehow Florida's performance this week was viewed more favorably than Alabama's, causing voters to flop their picks. For the second week in a row, the Gators needed favorable calls by SEC's suspect officiating crews to salt away a game against a heavy underdog. The Tide had a late-game mini-meltdown, but they held on without anybody's help.
* TCU is No. 3. To be honest, I haven't seen the Frogs all that much this season, but the BYU game opened my eyes. The way they dominated the Cougars, in Provo, no less, was impressive. That, coupled with Miami's overtime loss to Clemson - a team TCU beat on the road - made the case for the Frogs to jump all the way to No. 3 (even if we're not in Calaveras County).
* Boise State stays ahead of Oregon, that's a slam dunk. The Broncos' schedule may not be awe-inspiring, but they still have the second-most impressive victory of the season among the top five teams (behind only Florida's win at LSU).
* Oregon jumps USC this week after yet another throttling of a Pac-10 foe, this time a rout of Washington in Seattle - a feat that eluded the Trojans. The Ducks have been easily the most impressive team after conference play began, outscoring their opponents, 161-38. They also have two wins over top 25 teams to their credit (Utah and Cal).
* Somehow, the fact that USC is among the top teams in any poll seems somewhat controversial to some people. Why? Surely this is not a vintage Trojans team, with a sometimes-sputtering offense and a suddenly mortal defense, but they have earned their ranking by merit. They have beaten three top 25 teams (Ohio State, Notre Dame, Cal), all on the road, in three of the most hostile environments. That's more than anybody in the top 25 has done (including Oregon, whose two best wins were both at home). A victory over the Ducks next week would make it four.
* Iowa may be 8-0, but I'm not quite willing to take the Hawkeyes seriously yet. Their entire resume is built on the upset win over Penn State in Happy Valley, but I have my doubts about just how good the Nittany Lions really are, too.
* Cal is back in the top 25, its only losses were to teams ranked sixth and seventh (even if the Bears were blown out in both games). Arizona also deservedly makes into the ballot, with its only losses to Iowa and Washington (caused by a bizarre play late in the game). The Wildcats handed Central Michigan its only loss of the season, while the Chippewas (No. 23) won at East Lansing in the same fashion that Iowa did.
 | ||
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | |
| 2 | Florida | |
| 3 | TCU |  8 |
| 4 | Texas |  1 |
| 5 | Boise State | 1 |
| 6 | Oregon | |
| 7 | USC | 2 |
| 8 | LSU | |
| 9 | Iowa | |
| 10 | Cincinnati | |
| 11 | Georgia Tech | 1 |
| 12 | Penn State | 1 |
| 13 | Utah | 2 |
| 14 | Houston | 4 |
| 15 | Oklahoma State | 4 |
| 16 | Pittsburgh | 4 |
| 17 | West Virginia | |
| 18 | Virginia Tech | 2 |
| 19 | Miami (Florida) | 12 |
| 20 | California | |
| 21 | Ohio State | |
| 22 | Arizona | |
| 23 | Central Michigan | 1 |
| 24 | Notre Dame | |
| 25 | South Carolina | |
| Last week's ballot | ||
Dropped Out: Brigham Young (#14), Texas Tech (#22), South Florida (#23), Kansas (#25).
* First a disclaimer, since some of the new readers seem a bit confused about the difference between BCS Standings Projections and the BlogPoll ballot: The projections are my estimations on what the upcoming BCS Standings will look like, based on projected computer ratings and an educated forecast of the two polls. It's NOT an opinion. The BlogPoll ballot, which is new for this season, is my own personal vote and is COMPLETELY my opinion.
* Alabama is still No. 1 on my ballot, the close game with Tennessee notwithstanding. It amuses me that somehow Florida's performance this week was viewed more favorably than Alabama's, causing voters to flop their picks. For the second week in a row, the Gators needed favorable calls by SEC's suspect officiating crews to salt away a game against a heavy underdog. The Tide had a late-game mini-meltdown, but they held on without anybody's help.
* TCU is No. 3. To be honest, I haven't seen the Frogs all that much this season, but the BYU game opened my eyes. The way they dominated the Cougars, in Provo, no less, was impressive. That, coupled with Miami's overtime loss to Clemson - a team TCU beat on the road - made the case for the Frogs to jump all the way to No. 3 (even if we're not in Calaveras County).
* Boise State stays ahead of Oregon, that's a slam dunk. The Broncos' schedule may not be awe-inspiring, but they still have the second-most impressive victory of the season among the top five teams (behind only Florida's win at LSU).
* Oregon jumps USC this week after yet another throttling of a Pac-10 foe, this time a rout of Washington in Seattle - a feat that eluded the Trojans. The Ducks have been easily the most impressive team after conference play began, outscoring their opponents, 161-38. They also have two wins over top 25 teams to their credit (Utah and Cal).
* Somehow, the fact that USC is among the top teams in any poll seems somewhat controversial to some people. Why? Surely this is not a vintage Trojans team, with a sometimes-sputtering offense and a suddenly mortal defense, but they have earned their ranking by merit. They have beaten three top 25 teams (Ohio State, Notre Dame, Cal), all on the road, in three of the most hostile environments. That's more than anybody in the top 25 has done (including Oregon, whose two best wins were both at home). A victory over the Ducks next week would make it four.
* Iowa may be 8-0, but I'm not quite willing to take the Hawkeyes seriously yet. Their entire resume is built on the upset win over Penn State in Happy Valley, but I have my doubts about just how good the Nittany Lions really are, too.
* Cal is back in the top 25, its only losses were to teams ranked sixth and seventh (even if the Bears were blown out in both games). Arizona also deservedly makes into the ballot, with its only losses to Iowa and Washington (caused by a bizarre play late in the game). The Wildcats handed Central Michigan its only loss of the season, while the Chippewas (No. 23) won at East Lansing in the same fashion that Iowa did.
Saturday, October 24, 2009
Almost Famous
Lane Kiffin came close. He was accused of not trying to win against Florida, but no such allegation may be lodged against him and his Tennessee Volunteers this week. Had Daniel Lincoln put a little more arc on his field goal attempts, we would be here discussing how the next BCS Standings would be completely shaken up.
Instead, it's a weekend of what it might have been.
Throw in another Sparty, No! moment, what we are left with is simply status quo at the top of the BCS Standings.
Or is it?
Florida, Alabama and Texas will remain in the top three spots - in that order - in Sunday's BCS Standings. However, some shuffling will be in order for the next five slots.
(Brad Edwards, ESPN's alleged "BCS Expert" had this to say ... now, I may not be 100 percent accurate all the time, but what the hell kind of "expert" offers up this sort of insightful analysis? My four-year-old, armed with an abacus, can make this call. Lame.)
With Boise State safely ahead, 34-0, at the half in paradise (and the Guru's sometime offseason home), there is enough data to run the projections. It'll be close, but unlike some people, I won't chicken out.
The projected BCS Standings:
1. Florida, 2. Alabama, 3. Texas, 4. Iowa, 5. TCU, 6. Boise State, 7. Cincinnati, 8. USC, 9. LSU, 10. Oregon, 11. Georgia Tech, 12. Penn State, 13. Virginia Tech, 14. Oklahoma State, 15. Utah.
Instead, it's a weekend of what it might have been.
Throw in another Sparty, No! moment, what we are left with is simply status quo at the top of the BCS Standings.
Or is it?
Florida, Alabama and Texas will remain in the top three spots - in that order - in Sunday's BCS Standings. However, some shuffling will be in order for the next five slots.
(Brad Edwards, ESPN's alleged "BCS Expert" had this to say ... now, I may not be 100 percent accurate all the time, but what the hell kind of "expert" offers up this sort of insightful analysis? My four-year-old, armed with an abacus, can make this call. Lame.)
With Boise State safely ahead, 34-0, at the half in paradise (and the Guru's sometime offseason home), there is enough data to run the projections. It'll be close, but unlike some people, I won't chicken out.
The projected BCS Standings:
1. Florida, 2. Alabama, 3. Texas, 4. Iowa, 5. TCU, 6. Boise State, 7. Cincinnati, 8. USC, 9. LSU, 10. Oregon, 11. Georgia Tech, 12. Penn State, 13. Virginia Tech, 14. Oklahoma State, 15. Utah.
Friday, October 23, 2009
Surviving Trap Week
This week may be the calm before the storm. On Halloween, some of this year's BCS title contenders will be facing virtual elimination games. This week, their goal will be to get by overmatched opponents in the so-called "trap games" without suffering any damage.
Florida has the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party next week (I know the schools now frown upon the moniker, but since when do I give a flying fig about the eggheads and their pusillanimous sensitivities?). Mind you, Georgia is more poodle than Bulldog this year, but the game in Jacksonville is always a big deal. The Gators had better not overlook Mississippi State, though, as it's now coached by Dan Mullen, their erstwhile offensive coordinator. Take this game lightly at your own peril, see Exhibit A: Sarkisian, Steve vs. USC.
Alabama has Halloween off to go trick or treating, but it gets LSU the following week. The Tigers may be the final stumbling block for the Tide's return to the SEC Championship Game and another shot at the BCS title. This week, they welcome Lane Kiffin to Tuscaloosa as part of his ongoing Southern Hospitality Tour.
The biggest game in the Pac-10 this season looms next Saturday at Autzen Stadium, where Oregon attempts to end USC's reign as top dog. Before their tussle, though, the Trojans must take care of business against the pesky Beavers, who have beaten them two of the last three years (but both in Corvallis, not the Coliseum). Oregon goes up to Washington to renew its heated rivalry with the resurgent Huskies.
And finally, there's Texas. Next week's game at Stillwater against Oklahoma State will be a make-or-breaker for the Longhorns. A win, and a BCS title game berth will be within reach. A loss there may mean being denied yet another shot at the Big 12 championship, let along a national championship. This week, they're on the road to Columbia to face a reeling Missouri team.
Only one of those contests will make our top games of the week. But keep an eye on them, though, as this is the perfect time for an unsuspecting title contender to succumb to a season-killing upset.
★★★★★ GAME OF THE WEEK: TCU at BYU, 7:30 p.m. ET (Versus). TCU is one of eight remaining unbeaten teams and is vying with Boise State for a guaranteed bid granted to a non-BCS team as long as it finishes in the top 12. BYU had been the front-runner for that spot after upsetting Oklahoma, but a loss to Florida State knocked the Cougars out of the race. The Frogs may even have a shot at playing for the BCS title, but they need to win this game, and get some help.
★★★★ FOUR-STAR GAME: Iowa at Michigan State, 7 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network). The Hawkeyes have surprisingly emerged as the Big Ten's top BCS contender, and this trip to East Lansing is the penultimate road game for them this season. Get by Sparty and win at Ohio State, then Iowa will be playing in Pasadena, on either New Year's Day or Jan. 7.
★★★ THREE-STAR GAME: Auburn at LSU, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2). The battle of the Tigers lost a little bit of its bite after Auburn dropped its last two games. But for the Bayou Tigers, this is a must-win game to keep their hopes alive of winning the SEC West and return to the conference title game. LSU will be seeking to restart a home winning streak in night games after having that snapped by Florida two weeks ago.
★★ TWO-STAR GAME: Penn State at Michigan, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC). The Big House has been nothing but a house of horrors for the Nittany Lions, who have lost their last five visits to Ann Arbor. Last year, they finally ended Michigan's nine-game winning streak in the series with a rout in Happy Valley, but Rich Rodriguez's Wolverines this year will be much more menacing.
★ ONE-STAR GAME: Oregon at Washington, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC). The Ducks have certainly recovered from their season-opening meltdown at Boise State, winning each of their five games since. They have also done it with style, blasting their three Pac-10 opponents by a score of 118-19. The Huskies have been the ultimate cardiac kids, with their last three games decided on the final possession. But UW must quickly recover from last week's heartbreaker, when it gave up a 50-yard bomb with 5 seconds left in a 24-17 loss to Arizona State.
Florida has the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party next week (I know the schools now frown upon the moniker, but since when do I give a flying fig about the eggheads and their pusillanimous sensitivities?). Mind you, Georgia is more poodle than Bulldog this year, but the game in Jacksonville is always a big deal. The Gators had better not overlook Mississippi State, though, as it's now coached by Dan Mullen, their erstwhile offensive coordinator. Take this game lightly at your own peril, see Exhibit A: Sarkisian, Steve vs. USC.
Alabama has Halloween off to go trick or treating, but it gets LSU the following week. The Tigers may be the final stumbling block for the Tide's return to the SEC Championship Game and another shot at the BCS title. This week, they welcome Lane Kiffin to Tuscaloosa as part of his ongoing Southern Hospitality Tour.
The biggest game in the Pac-10 this season looms next Saturday at Autzen Stadium, where Oregon attempts to end USC's reign as top dog. Before their tussle, though, the Trojans must take care of business against the pesky Beavers, who have beaten them two of the last three years (but both in Corvallis, not the Coliseum). Oregon goes up to Washington to renew its heated rivalry with the resurgent Huskies.
And finally, there's Texas. Next week's game at Stillwater against Oklahoma State will be a make-or-breaker for the Longhorns. A win, and a BCS title game berth will be within reach. A loss there may mean being denied yet another shot at the Big 12 championship, let along a national championship. This week, they're on the road to Columbia to face a reeling Missouri team.
Only one of those contests will make our top games of the week. But keep an eye on them, though, as this is the perfect time for an unsuspecting title contender to succumb to a season-killing upset.
★★★★★ GAME OF THE WEEK: TCU at BYU, 7:30 p.m. ET (Versus). TCU is one of eight remaining unbeaten teams and is vying with Boise State for a guaranteed bid granted to a non-BCS team as long as it finishes in the top 12. BYU had been the front-runner for that spot after upsetting Oklahoma, but a loss to Florida State knocked the Cougars out of the race. The Frogs may even have a shot at playing for the BCS title, but they need to win this game, and get some help.
★★★★ FOUR-STAR GAME: Iowa at Michigan State, 7 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network). The Hawkeyes have surprisingly emerged as the Big Ten's top BCS contender, and this trip to East Lansing is the penultimate road game for them this season. Get by Sparty and win at Ohio State, then Iowa will be playing in Pasadena, on either New Year's Day or Jan. 7.
★★★ THREE-STAR GAME: Auburn at LSU, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2). The battle of the Tigers lost a little bit of its bite after Auburn dropped its last two games. But for the Bayou Tigers, this is a must-win game to keep their hopes alive of winning the SEC West and return to the conference title game. LSU will be seeking to restart a home winning streak in night games after having that snapped by Florida two weeks ago.
★★ TWO-STAR GAME: Penn State at Michigan, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC). The Big House has been nothing but a house of horrors for the Nittany Lions, who have lost their last five visits to Ann Arbor. Last year, they finally ended Michigan's nine-game winning streak in the series with a rout in Happy Valley, but Rich Rodriguez's Wolverines this year will be much more menacing.
★ ONE-STAR GAME: Oregon at Washington, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC). The Ducks have certainly recovered from their season-opening meltdown at Boise State, winning each of their five games since. They have also done it with style, blasting their three Pac-10 opponents by a score of 118-19. The Huskies have been the ultimate cardiac kids, with their last three games decided on the final possession. But UW must quickly recover from last week's heartbreaker, when it gave up a 50-yard bomb with 5 seconds left in a 24-17 loss to Arizona State.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
A Pecking Order Emerges
It's only the first BCS Standings of the 2009 season, but there are enough clues to provide a glimpse at what will be the narrative the rest of the year, leading to the BCS title game at the Rose Bowl next Jan. 7.
* It is almost assured that, for the fourth consecutive season, an SEC team will be in the BCS title game and for the first time since the 1946 game, a Southern team will make an appearance at the Granddaddy of 'Em All. It's unlikely that either Florida or Alabama will lose a game until they meet again in Atlanta for the SEC title. The winner of that game will play for the BCS championship.
* Next in line is Texas. Though at times shaky, the Longhorns have managed to keep a clean slate. Their toughest stretch will be the next two weeks, when they go play at Mizzou and Oklahoma State. After that, they do not leave the Lone Star State again the rest of the regular season, culminating with the Big 12 title game in Arlington.
* Iowa would be the first alternate should Texas falter. The Hawkeyes might be only seventh (Harris) and eighth (Coaches) in the polls, but as they continue winning, they will inevitably rise. Particularly crucial is their Nov. 14 game at Ohio State. If they can win in Columbus and beat their remaining opponents, they're just a Texas loss away from their first BCS title game appearance.
* If Texas and Iowa both lose once, USC would be next in line. It may seem far-fetched at the moment, as the Trojans are No. 7 in the BCS Standings, but take a closer look. USC is already the highest ranked one-loss team in the polls (No. 4 in both Coaches and Harris polls), and its computer rankings will only improve as the season goes on. The Trojans need to beat Oregon at Autzen Stadium on Oct. 31, but other than that, they'll be a double-digit favorite for every remaining game. Wins over Oregon, Oregon State and Arizona will help the Trojans' computer ratings. If they should finish the season without another loss, the Trojans will be among the top 5 teams in the computers.
* Cincinnati and Boise State, though both still unbeaten, may not be able to vault a one-loss USC team for the BCS title game. The Broncos should have clear sailing to 13-0, but their atrocious remaining schedule will keep their poll rankings stuck at about Nos. 5-6. Cincinnati, despite a big win over South Florida, does not have a single signature opponent on its schedule and may finish 12-0 without beating even one team that's ranked at the end of the season. If USC should beat both Oregon (Boise State) and Oregon State (Cincinnati) impressively, then it will win the common-opponent argument.
* TCU is the wild card here. Where the Frogs might go from this point and on is a bit of a mystery. A win at BYU this week and then Utah later in the season should cement a 12-0 record, but would they be enough to put TCU over Boise State for a BCS bowl spot, let along for the BCS title? Where the Frogs go end up might depend on both BYU and Utah finishing with at least nine wins apiece. TCU's problem is its nonconference schedule. Though well intended - with road games at Virginia and Clemson - it just hasn't turned out to help much.
It's difficult to see anybody outside of this eight-team pool to emerge in the BCS title game picture without a spate of upsets. The chances for utter BCS chaos remain, but most likely it will result in a debate over the merits of a one-loss BCS behemoth such as USC vs. an unbeaten non-BCS entry (or in Cincinnati's case, BCS-lite).
If the choice for the voters - and ultimately, it will be the voters who decide things - is a delicious and long-awaited matchup between the SEC champ and the Trojans, or the SEC champ and Boise State or Cincinnati, it's hard to see them going for the latter.
It's not a fair fight. But it never is in the BCS.
* It is almost assured that, for the fourth consecutive season, an SEC team will be in the BCS title game and for the first time since the 1946 game, a Southern team will make an appearance at the Granddaddy of 'Em All. It's unlikely that either Florida or Alabama will lose a game until they meet again in Atlanta for the SEC title. The winner of that game will play for the BCS championship.
* Next in line is Texas. Though at times shaky, the Longhorns have managed to keep a clean slate. Their toughest stretch will be the next two weeks, when they go play at Mizzou and Oklahoma State. After that, they do not leave the Lone Star State again the rest of the regular season, culminating with the Big 12 title game in Arlington.
* Iowa would be the first alternate should Texas falter. The Hawkeyes might be only seventh (Harris) and eighth (Coaches) in the polls, but as they continue winning, they will inevitably rise. Particularly crucial is their Nov. 14 game at Ohio State. If they can win in Columbus and beat their remaining opponents, they're just a Texas loss away from their first BCS title game appearance.
* If Texas and Iowa both lose once, USC would be next in line. It may seem far-fetched at the moment, as the Trojans are No. 7 in the BCS Standings, but take a closer look. USC is already the highest ranked one-loss team in the polls (No. 4 in both Coaches and Harris polls), and its computer rankings will only improve as the season goes on. The Trojans need to beat Oregon at Autzen Stadium on Oct. 31, but other than that, they'll be a double-digit favorite for every remaining game. Wins over Oregon, Oregon State and Arizona will help the Trojans' computer ratings. If they should finish the season without another loss, the Trojans will be among the top 5 teams in the computers.
* Cincinnati and Boise State, though both still unbeaten, may not be able to vault a one-loss USC team for the BCS title game. The Broncos should have clear sailing to 13-0, but their atrocious remaining schedule will keep their poll rankings stuck at about Nos. 5-6. Cincinnati, despite a big win over South Florida, does not have a single signature opponent on its schedule and may finish 12-0 without beating even one team that's ranked at the end of the season. If USC should beat both Oregon (Boise State) and Oregon State (Cincinnati) impressively, then it will win the common-opponent argument.
* TCU is the wild card here. Where the Frogs might go from this point and on is a bit of a mystery. A win at BYU this week and then Utah later in the season should cement a 12-0 record, but would they be enough to put TCU over Boise State for a BCS bowl spot, let along for the BCS title? Where the Frogs go end up might depend on both BYU and Utah finishing with at least nine wins apiece. TCU's problem is its nonconference schedule. Though well intended - with road games at Virginia and Clemson - it just hasn't turned out to help much.
It's difficult to see anybody outside of this eight-team pool to emerge in the BCS title game picture without a spate of upsets. The chances for utter BCS chaos remain, but most likely it will result in a debate over the merits of a one-loss BCS behemoth such as USC vs. an unbeaten non-BCS entry (or in Cincinnati's case, BCS-lite).
If the choice for the voters - and ultimately, it will be the voters who decide things - is a delicious and long-awaited matchup between the SEC champ and the Trojans, or the SEC champ and Boise State or Cincinnati, it's hard to see them going for the latter.
It's not a fair fight. But it never is in the BCS.
Sunday, October 18, 2009
The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 7)
The Guru's Week 7 BlogPoll, with notes below:
| ||
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | |
| 2 | Florida | |
| 3 | Texas | 1 |
| 4 | Boise State | 1 |
| 5 | USC | 1 |
| 6 | Oregon | 1 |
| 7 | Miami (Florida) | 2 |
| 8 | LSU | 2 |
| 9 | Iowa | 2 |
| 10 | Cincinnati | 2 |
| 11 | TCU | 3 |
| 12 | Georgia Tech | 3 |
| 13 | Penn State | 4 |
| 14 | Brigham Young | 2 |
| 15 | Utah | 10 |
| 16 | Virginia Tech | 11 |
| 17 | West Virginia | 5 |
| 18 | Houston | |
| 19 | Oklahoma State | 5 |
| 20 | Pittsburgh | |
| 21 | Ohio State | 13 |
| 22 | Texas Tech | |
| 23 | South Florida | 10 |
| 24 | Central Michigan | |
| 25 | Kansas | 7 |
| Last week's ballot | ||
Dropped Out: South Carolina (#19), Nebraska (#20), Auburn (#21), Oklahoma (#23).
* The top of the standings underwent just a little bit of a shakeup. Boise State drops down a spot after a lackluster win at Tulsa. Texas moves up one after a hard-fought victory over Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl. And everybody else slides up after Virginia Tech loses to Georgia Tech.
* Seven teams remain unbeaten and they're among the top 11. Every Division I-A team with no more than one loss is on the ballot, except Idaho. Three teams with two losses remain on the ballot (Virginia Tech, Ohio State and Texas Tech).
* USC is the highest ranked team among one-loss teams. To me, this is a fair placement. I don't think I'll be moving the Trojans up over the top four teams as long as they remain undefeated. But for now, I also don't see moving Iowa, Cincinnati and TCU - the other unbeatens - over USC, Oregon or Miami. Those unbeatens simply haven't played tough enough schedules to warrant such a jump.
* This last statement might seem to come out of nowhere, but here it is: The more I vote, the more I'm alarmed how this inexact (or even bogus) science gets to decide the most important championship in all of college sports. I was once an AP voter, but that was pre-BCS and college football was mostly a regional sport back in those days. But now, billions of dollars and many jobs are on the line and the best we can do is rely on 173 people who may or may not have watched enough games to provide an informed opinion?
The BlogPoll, despite its idiosyncratic nature and professed bias, is actually more accurate than the Coaches Poll and Harris Poll, which make up for two-thirds of the BCS Standings. Bloggers watch copious amount of games every Saturday and our opinions for the most part are on the mark. That cannot be said for the coaches, and very little is known about the Harris voters. On top of all that, whereas us bloggers have to account for our every ballot, the coaches and Harris voters get a free pass until the season's end.
What can possibly be the justification for casting votes for Troy and Temple? But there is no transparency with either poll, so we'll never know.
* The top of the standings underwent just a little bit of a shakeup. Boise State drops down a spot after a lackluster win at Tulsa. Texas moves up one after a hard-fought victory over Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl. And everybody else slides up after Virginia Tech loses to Georgia Tech.
* Seven teams remain unbeaten and they're among the top 11. Every Division I-A team with no more than one loss is on the ballot, except Idaho. Three teams with two losses remain on the ballot (Virginia Tech, Ohio State and Texas Tech).
* USC is the highest ranked team among one-loss teams. To me, this is a fair placement. I don't think I'll be moving the Trojans up over the top four teams as long as they remain undefeated. But for now, I also don't see moving Iowa, Cincinnati and TCU - the other unbeatens - over USC, Oregon or Miami. Those unbeatens simply haven't played tough enough schedules to warrant such a jump.
* This last statement might seem to come out of nowhere, but here it is: The more I vote, the more I'm alarmed how this inexact (or even bogus) science gets to decide the most important championship in all of college sports. I was once an AP voter, but that was pre-BCS and college football was mostly a regional sport back in those days. But now, billions of dollars and many jobs are on the line and the best we can do is rely on 173 people who may or may not have watched enough games to provide an informed opinion?
The BlogPoll, despite its idiosyncratic nature and professed bias, is actually more accurate than the Coaches Poll and Harris Poll, which make up for two-thirds of the BCS Standings. Bloggers watch copious amount of games every Saturday and our opinions for the most part are on the mark. That cannot be said for the coaches, and very little is known about the Harris voters. On top of all that, whereas us bloggers have to account for our every ballot, the coaches and Harris voters get a free pass until the season's end.
What can possibly be the justification for casting votes for Troy and Temple? But there is no transparency with either poll, so we'll never know.
Saturday, October 17, 2009
First BCS Projection, 2009
A couple of upsets, a few near misses, and a baseball game that just would not end made for an interesting Saturday, the eve of the 2009 season's first BCS Standings.
Florida and Alabama both escaped with tough home wins against SEC foes. Texas held off Oklahoma again. And USC withstood an Irish rally to win its eighth straight against Notre Dame.
Virginia Tech and Ohio State weren't as fortunate. The Hokies are now officially out of the BCS title chase, and perhaps even the one for the ACC Coastal title, after an upset loss at Georgia Tech. Ohio State had a worse loss, getting bested by unranked Purdue at West Lafayette.
All this caused the top of the BCS Standings to undergo a little bit of a shakeup. The unbeaten ranks have further shrunk to just seven. The actual BCS title contenders number somewhere around a dozen, with a few 1-loss teams still very much in the mix.
The first BCS Standings will be announced Sunday afternoon, and of course, as a public service, the Guru will once again make projections for the top 15 teams on Saturday night. (If you want to see my track record, go right ahead.)
As a public service, this is Fox's BCS Standings release schedule, in its usual, we-will-just-tuck-it-in-between-some-NFL-games-because-we-don't-really-give-a-flying-hoot special kind of way. It's different every week, so this reference guide should come in handy:
(All Times Eastern)
Oct. 18 - Between 4 and 4:30 p.m. (after Fox's early NFL game)
Oct. 25 - 7:15-8 p.m. (during Fox's OT show)
Nov. 1 - 7:15-8 p.m. (during the OT show)
Nov. 8 - 4-4:30 (after early NFL game)
Nov. 15 - 7:15-8 p.m. (during the OT show)
Nov. 22 - 4-4:30 p.m. (after early NFL game)
Nov. 29 - 7:15-8 p.m. (during the OT show)
Dec. 6 - 8 p.m.
The good news is, after this season, Fox's four-year reign of terror on the BCS will be over.
And without further ado, here's the projected BCS Standings:
1. Florida, 2. Alabama, 3. Texas, 4. Boise State, 5. USC, 6. Iowa, 7. LSU, 8. Cincinnati, 9. TCU, 10. Miami (Fla.), 11. Oregon, 12. Georgia Tech, 13. Virginia Tech, 14. Penn State, 15. Oklahoma State.
Florida and Alabama both escaped with tough home wins against SEC foes. Texas held off Oklahoma again. And USC withstood an Irish rally to win its eighth straight against Notre Dame.
Virginia Tech and Ohio State weren't as fortunate. The Hokies are now officially out of the BCS title chase, and perhaps even the one for the ACC Coastal title, after an upset loss at Georgia Tech. Ohio State had a worse loss, getting bested by unranked Purdue at West Lafayette.
All this caused the top of the BCS Standings to undergo a little bit of a shakeup. The unbeaten ranks have further shrunk to just seven. The actual BCS title contenders number somewhere around a dozen, with a few 1-loss teams still very much in the mix.
The first BCS Standings will be announced Sunday afternoon, and of course, as a public service, the Guru will once again make projections for the top 15 teams on Saturday night. (If you want to see my track record, go right ahead.)
As a public service, this is Fox's BCS Standings release schedule, in its usual, we-will-just-tuck-it-in-between-some-NFL-games-because-we-don't-really-give-a-flying-hoot special kind of way. It's different every week, so this reference guide should come in handy:
(All Times Eastern)
Oct. 18 - Between 4 and 4:30 p.m. (after Fox's early NFL game)
Oct. 25 - 7:15-8 p.m. (during Fox's OT show)
Nov. 1 - 7:15-8 p.m. (during the OT show)
Nov. 8 - 4-4:30 (after early NFL game)
Nov. 15 - 7:15-8 p.m. (during the OT show)
Nov. 22 - 4-4:30 p.m. (after early NFL game)
Nov. 29 - 7:15-8 p.m. (during the OT show)
Dec. 6 - 8 p.m.
The good news is, after this season, Fox's four-year reign of terror on the BCS will be over.
And without further ado, here's the projected BCS Standings:
1. Florida, 2. Alabama, 3. Texas, 4. Boise State, 5. USC, 6. Iowa, 7. LSU, 8. Cincinnati, 9. TCU, 10. Miami (Fla.), 11. Oregon, 12. Georgia Tech, 13. Virginia Tech, 14. Penn State, 15. Oklahoma State.
Friday, October 16, 2009
Fat Charlie's Last Chance?
Much has been made about Saturday's game being Charlie Weis' best chance to beat USC since the Bush Push Classic in 2005. The Irish, mired in a seven-year futility against the Trojans, might not get a better shot anytime soon if they don't somehow pull it off this year.
The game is at home - they can let the grass grow. The Trojans have a freshman quarterback and a sputtering offense. Jimmy Clausen is a true Heisman candidate and can't wait to finally pick apart the USC defense.
It all sounds nice and interesting. But it's all hype.
The Irish ain't gonna beat the Trojans. Not now. Not next year. Not anytime soon.
Notre Dame's 4-1 record was achieved mostly by late-game meltdowns (offensively, defensively or officially) by its mediocre opponents. Michigan State absolutely gagged the game away as it was marching down the field for a game-winning touchdown. Purdue choked with a blown assignment on the game's last meaningful offensive play, a fourth-down pass by Notre Dame. And with its victory over Washington, ND forever loses any future privilege for whining about the Bush Push, for the entire Irish offensive line drivepiled the ball into the end zone while the officials swallowed the whistle during the interminable 2-point conversion.
So there.
The fact remains that Notre Dame simply isn't in USC's class. The Trojans had their annual September slumber against an inferior Pac-10 opponent. That happens every year, and it continues to be the one thing that tarnishes Win Forever. But they usually hit their stride by October. And they don't give away games that they feel like they have something to play for.
Even with freshman quarterback Matt Barkley and a somewhat depleted running back corps, the Trojans still have enough firepower on offense to overwhelm the Irish. Defensively, USC has been its stout self this season, stifling high-powered offenses such as Ohio State, Cal and Washington with both speed and scheme. There is no reason that USC shouldn't be a prohibitive favorite in this game - by 10 points in most betting lines.
For Charlie Weis, building up this game will have consequences. He's in need of a signature win - so far in his four-plus years in South Bend, his most memorable moment was the near-miss Bush Push Game. Under Weis, the Irish have been trounced in each BCS bowl game. They have lost to Michigan whenever Michigan was any good. And they have not come close to beating USC except in 2005, Weis' first year.
The clock is ticking in the Weis Era. Another loss to USC will drop Notre Dame out of the top 25. The Irish do not have another opponent near the Trojans' stature left on their schedule. A 10-2 record, with losses to Michigan and USC (ND's two marquee rivals), will not get ND into a BCS bowl. It might be good enough to save Weis' job for another year. But for some of the true Notre Dame fans, that's just prolonging the agony.
★★★★★ GAME OF THE WEEK: Oklahoma vs. Texas, noon ET. Despite OU's two losses, the Red River Shootout in Dallas still takes the top billing this week. Sam Bradford is back for the Sooners, whose desperation to win this game should be obvious. A victory sends Oklahoma on track for the Big XII South title and a BCS bowl berth. A loss effectively ends its season. Texas has national championship aspirations, but the 'Horns won't win anything if they don't beat OU.
★★★★ FOUR-STAR GAME: USC at Notre Dame, 3:30 p.m. ET. The Trojans are still aiming for the BCS title, and the Irish think they have a shot at a BCS bowl. Somebody's plan will be unalterably changed after this game.
★★★ THREE-STAR GAME: Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech, 6 p.m. ET. The Hokies are No. 3 in the final Simulated BCS Standings and may stay there with a Texas loss. Their remaining schedule is much more agreeable than all the other major title contenders. And win here will keep VT as a potential frontrunner for the BCS championship game.
★★ TWO-STAR GAME: South Carolina at Alabama, 7:45 p.m. ET. The Tide have a considerably tougher schedule than Florida, as the two teams seem to be on a collision course to play for the SEC title and a spot in the BCS championship game. South Carolina has been steady if unspectacular, but whatever it's got won't be enough to win in Tuscaloosa.
★ ONE-STAR GAME: Iowa at Wisconsin, noon p.m. ET. The Big Ten's lone unbeaten team tries to emerge as a surprise contender not only for the Rose Bowl, but also for the game a week later in Pasadena. The Hawkeyes have danced on a tightrope in their victories against opponents big and small. The question is, how long can they keep up?
The game is at home - they can let the grass grow. The Trojans have a freshman quarterback and a sputtering offense. Jimmy Clausen is a true Heisman candidate and can't wait to finally pick apart the USC defense.
It all sounds nice and interesting. But it's all hype.
The Irish ain't gonna beat the Trojans. Not now. Not next year. Not anytime soon.
Notre Dame's 4-1 record was achieved mostly by late-game meltdowns (offensively, defensively or officially) by its mediocre opponents. Michigan State absolutely gagged the game away as it was marching down the field for a game-winning touchdown. Purdue choked with a blown assignment on the game's last meaningful offensive play, a fourth-down pass by Notre Dame. And with its victory over Washington, ND forever loses any future privilege for whining about the Bush Push, for the entire Irish offensive line drivepiled the ball into the end zone while the officials swallowed the whistle during the interminable 2-point conversion.
So there.
The fact remains that Notre Dame simply isn't in USC's class. The Trojans had their annual September slumber against an inferior Pac-10 opponent. That happens every year, and it continues to be the one thing that tarnishes Win Forever. But they usually hit their stride by October. And they don't give away games that they feel like they have something to play for.
Even with freshman quarterback Matt Barkley and a somewhat depleted running back corps, the Trojans still have enough firepower on offense to overwhelm the Irish. Defensively, USC has been its stout self this season, stifling high-powered offenses such as Ohio State, Cal and Washington with both speed and scheme. There is no reason that USC shouldn't be a prohibitive favorite in this game - by 10 points in most betting lines.
For Charlie Weis, building up this game will have consequences. He's in need of a signature win - so far in his four-plus years in South Bend, his most memorable moment was the near-miss Bush Push Game. Under Weis, the Irish have been trounced in each BCS bowl game. They have lost to Michigan whenever Michigan was any good. And they have not come close to beating USC except in 2005, Weis' first year.
The clock is ticking in the Weis Era. Another loss to USC will drop Notre Dame out of the top 25. The Irish do not have another opponent near the Trojans' stature left on their schedule. A 10-2 record, with losses to Michigan and USC (ND's two marquee rivals), will not get ND into a BCS bowl. It might be good enough to save Weis' job for another year. But for some of the true Notre Dame fans, that's just prolonging the agony.
★★★★★ GAME OF THE WEEK: Oklahoma vs. Texas, noon ET. Despite OU's two losses, the Red River Shootout in Dallas still takes the top billing this week. Sam Bradford is back for the Sooners, whose desperation to win this game should be obvious. A victory sends Oklahoma on track for the Big XII South title and a BCS bowl berth. A loss effectively ends its season. Texas has national championship aspirations, but the 'Horns won't win anything if they don't beat OU.
★★★★ FOUR-STAR GAME: USC at Notre Dame, 3:30 p.m. ET. The Trojans are still aiming for the BCS title, and the Irish think they have a shot at a BCS bowl. Somebody's plan will be unalterably changed after this game.
★★★ THREE-STAR GAME: Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech, 6 p.m. ET. The Hokies are No. 3 in the final Simulated BCS Standings and may stay there with a Texas loss. Their remaining schedule is much more agreeable than all the other major title contenders. And win here will keep VT as a potential frontrunner for the BCS championship game.
★★ TWO-STAR GAME: South Carolina at Alabama, 7:45 p.m. ET. The Tide have a considerably tougher schedule than Florida, as the two teams seem to be on a collision course to play for the SEC title and a spot in the BCS championship game. South Carolina has been steady if unspectacular, but whatever it's got won't be enough to win in Tuscaloosa.
★ ONE-STAR GAME: Iowa at Wisconsin, noon p.m. ET. The Big Ten's lone unbeaten team tries to emerge as a surprise contender not only for the Rose Bowl, but also for the game a week later in Pasadena. The Hawkeyes have danced on a tightrope in their victories against opponents big and small. The question is, how long can they keep up?
Thursday, October 15, 2009
An Interview with Richard Billingsley
Of the six computer ratings in the BCS formula, the Billingsley Report is unquestionably the most controversial. And of the seven programmers (Anderson & Hester count as two), Richard Billingsley is undoubtedly the most opinionated and colorful. The Billingsley Report has been part of the BCS since its second season, 1999, but the data goes all the way back to 1869, to Princeton vs. Rutgers, the first college football game ever played.With the 2009 BCS Standings set to debut on Sunday, the Guru decided to have a chat with Mr. Billingsley this week in a no-holds-barred, hour-long phone interview. This is what he had to say:
Guru: Why are you a college football fan?
Billingsley: I can honestly say it came by naturally. I was born into a football-crazy family. My grandfather and parents were big college football fans and I remember being a fan as a young child at 5-6 years old. I'm literally a fan before the game was on TV. It really boggles my mind that college football has gone from being on the radio to black-and-white TV to to color TV and now to every outlet you can think of. The first football game that left an impression on me was in 1957, it was Notre Dame beating Oklahoma that ended (the Sooners') 47-game winning streak. I was born in Oklahoma and still live here. I remember the entire state in such shock over that loss, literally like someone had died in the family. That made such an impact on me because I figured if it's that important to adults, there must be something to it, so I was hooked.
Guru: How did you get into the rankings business?
Billingsley: I was interested in college football rankings, such as the AP and the UPI - the coaches poll back in the old days - at a very young age. Back then, the polls came out on Tuesdays. The voting was done so late on Sundays it didn't meet press deadlines, so the rankings did not come out until Tuesdays in the papers. I'd run home from school looking at those polls in the newspaper and most of the time, I'd go 'man, did these guys watch the same games as I did? This is not right. There has to be a better way of ranking teams.' Even when I was a teenager, I thought they were not paying attention to strength of schedule and playing favorites with traditional powerhouse schools. I didn't think these should be tolerated. So I sat down one day and started tinkering with my own mathematical formula.
Guru: When did you first publish your rankings?
Billingsley: I first ran it for a couple of years, in 1968 and '69. In 1970 it was published for the first time, by a local neighborhood newspaper in Houston. I did that for years. It was just a hobby, something I printed out for friends, family and coworkers. It wasn't until 1994, when I started wondering who'd been No. 1 in my system back in the 1920s, and I thought I could find out, and run my system through those years if I had all the information I needed. So I sat down and wrote letters to every Division I school's SID (Sports Information Director), asking for their football records as far back as they have them. And every SID responded and sent me their press guide. That was my starting place. What I did not realize I'd come up against was that there's a vast amount of discrepancies between schools - not only did they not agree on the date, but the score, or in one instance, who won the game. But eventually I pieced everything together like a jigsaw puzzle. I started in 1869, everything from that point through the current year. I finally finished it in 1996 - it took me two years to do all that. One of my friends would tell me: 'you're either the most dedicated college football fan or you lead the most pathetic life of any man.'
Guru: And how did your rankings get into the BCS?
Billingsley: When I finished the project, I was pretty pround of what I had done and I took the results and mailed it to Richard Campbell, the director of statistics for the NCAA. He said it was amazing and he'd like to publish this in the NCAA records book. It was in the 1996 records book, and it was the first time ever I had gotten any recognition. And then the real break came in 1999, when Roy Kramer (then BCS chair and commissioner of the SEC) wanted to expand the computer rankings from three to seven. His deputy Charles Bloom called me and said we got your name from the NCAA and would like to see your work. And for the first time, my rankings were included in 1999. The fact is, in the six computers, there are the most time-tested brilliant mathematical minds - everybody but me, I'm not a mathematician - but one of the requirements is the BCS needed to see 10 years of rankings on a week-by-week and see how far back can you go. (Bloom) was amused that I had such a vast amount of information. How I ended up getting in the BCS was probably because they were impressed with my research.
Guru: You had to alter your formula after the BCS required that margin of victory (MOV) be dropped as a component. How did you feel about that?
Billingsley: That happened after the 2001 season, but I had actually agreed to take (MOV) out before the BCS requested us to take it out. It had become so obvious to me during the 2001 season that the coaches were using the scores of the game to manipulate the computers. It was the most unsportsmanlike thing I've ever seen in my life and I wanted no part of it. I agree that using MOV gives you a better predictor for future games, a more accurate predictor. But with it or without it, it has never changed my top two teams at the end of the season.
Guru: Your system tends to produce rankings quite distinct from the other five BCS computers. Why is that?
Billingsley: My system is probably more different from the other computer systems. The other five guys are looking at it from a purely mathematical standpoint - don't get me wrong, I applaud their systems and I have tremendous respect for what they do. But my system is not purely mathematically based. My rankings are based on rules that are put in place from a fan's perspective, things I think that are important to rank college football teams. My rankings are closer-ly related to human voters, an improved AP poll, if you will. It reacts to games more like a human voter but does it without biases like the name of team, the conference they play in, etc. It's mainly concerned with with wins, losses, strength of schedule (SOS) and head-to-head results. The core of my system is not something you see in most computers. It's not necessarily better - in purely mathematical terms, it's not as good - but the public relates very well to the system.
Guru: So how do you respond to the accusation that your system is a 'one-man poll'?
Billingsley: My response is that it's a 100 percent computer-generated formula, there's no personal input on a week-by-week basis. Anyone can duplicate the system if they have the program. Other than that I wrote the program, I have no influence.
Guru: But you do have a preseason ranking. Isn't that inherently biased?
Billingsley: In my system, you carry the rankings from one season to the next, exactly from last season's final rankings. You must have a starting position. Both Sagarin and Massey use that philosophy, the only difference is I found a way to do it without MOV and still have a pretty accurate system. Some people think before the season, everybody should start out equal, but my answer to that is it looks fair on the surface to start everyone equal, but it's not logical because we know for a fact that all teams are not equal, so how can we ignore that? It's more fair if Idaho starts out the same as Southern Cal. It's fair to Idaho. But is it fair to USC? In my mind, (to start out teams equally) skews any hopes of an unbiased SOS. That's why my SOS is dramatically different from what other computers are showing you.
Guru: Does it bother you that your rankings get tossed at a disproportionally high rate every week?
Billingsley: I certainly know my rankings give a different perspective. I know there are those out there like to say, 'look, Billingsley gets thrown out more than other computers, so it must not be any good.' My reponse is this: My computer program is more correlated to human votes than other computers, so of course it gets thrown out more often. But that's what the BCS was tying to accomplish. They don't want me to be like the other computers, they want a different perspective. It doesn't bother me that my rankings get thrown out more often, but it bothers me that people don't understand why,
Guru: Do you get disgruntled fans writing you as a result?
Billingsley: I do get hate mail from fans but you can't satisfy everybody. It's always from the fans of a few teams feeling that they're getting the shaft. If they love your ranking, they won't write, so 90 percent of the mail is bad. When this happened 10 years ago it broke my heart. But over the years, it just rolls off my back. I have always tried my best to respond to every email I get, but I finally have to post a message that says that I won't respond to anything with vulgarity. I've gotten some disgustingly vulgar email - those people really are not fans, they're just disgruntled human beings. You may not agree with me but at least you can be respectful.
Guru: What would you do to change the current BCS formula?
Billingsley: A couple of things. First, the weight between computers and humans should be 50-50. That's the way it was and then it changed because of an overreaction to that particular season (2003). In this formula, we're ignoring SOS - 33 percent is not enough weight to accurately describe SOS. The voters just don't have the capacity to gauge SOS the way they should, even if they had the inclination to do so. There is a difference, from a mathematically standpoint, between a 47th-ranked team and 48th but (the voters) cannot give us that distinction. That's why computers should have more weight. Second, they need to stop throwing out the high number (among the computers). They can throw out the low number but keep the high number. The reason I'm saying that is the six formulas we have now are narrowed down from hundreds of computer and it's the best we have, so we really shouldn't toss out two more in every ranking. For example, last season, I continuously had USC higher than other systems and at the end of the season, guess where they ended up? So my question is, why is it that the Trojans are not allowed to get the benefit of a system that gives them a higher rating?
Guru: Aside from the formula, do you want to see the BCS changed in any way?
Billingsley: I'm a fan of the BCS, but not because I'm a part of it. I think this system is the best way to bring together a No. 1 and No. 2 and keep the integrity of the season intact. I'm not a fan of a playoff. I prefer the way it is. In some seasons, the plus-one would make a lot of sense but it doesn't in every season. So whatever we do it's got to fit every season, that's what people forget. If you make a change based on one season's result, you're making a mistake. Any change that takes place should be made over a long period of investigation and research. We don't need a plus-one. If I have one criticism (for the BCS), it's that in the early years they made too many changes based on a knee-jerk reaction. But in their defense, they didn't have a choice. It was something we were all experiencing for the first time.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Final Simulated BCS Standings
Next Sunday, the BCS will release its first official standings for the 2009 season, so this is the final Simulated BCS Standings.
As has been the practice since our inception, beginning next week, the Guru will release the projections for the BCS Standings by Saturday night, following the final game of consequence for the evening - in next week's case, the Missouri-Oklahoma State game that kicks off at 9:15 p.m. ET. On Sundays, the Guru will publish the most comprehensive BCS Standings anywhere, including every team that has received any points from the polls and computers.
The final Simulated BCS Standings are a bit of a downer, as world order appears to have been restored. Florida, the consensus No. 1 in the polls, is also No. 1 in the BCS Standings. The Gators will be No. 1 in the first official standings next week as well, no matter what happens as long as they defeat Arkansas. Florida is No. 1 because it has an insurmountable lead in the two polls.
Alabama checks in at No. 2, now slightly behind Florida in the computer ratings. The Tide have made up ground on Texas in the polls, tying the 'Horns in the Harris poll for No. 2. They have opened up a rather comfortable lead over everyone else while rolling toward a collision with Florida in the SEC title game.
Virginia Tech has leap-frogged unbeaten Texas for No. 3. The Longhorns, after another lackluster victory against an outmatched opponent, are slipping fast in the polls and getting no love from the computers. Texas' troubles with the computers will continue even if it defeats Oklahoma next week, as OU is ranked in the top 25 only by Billingsley.
Lurking at No. 6, behind Boise State, is USC. But the Trojans' misfortune with the computers is about to change. They face Notre Dame, Oregon State and Oregon in the next three weeks - three teams fairly well-regarded by the computers. If USC manages to sweep the trio, then it will have a chance to move back up the standings as some of the frontrunners fall. The Trojans finish the season with three straight home games.
The Guru's prediction of a Boise State ceiling appears to have been on target, as Boise is getting dropped by one-loss teams even during a bye week. USC jumped the Broncos in the always-suspect Coaches Poll though both teams were idle. In the Harris Poll, Boise was jumped by Virginia Tech this week.
After their Wednesday night game at Tulsa, the Broncos will finish the slate with seven straight against WAC opponents, with only one (Idaho) currently boasting a winning record. Boise State, at this juncture, appears to have no shot at the BCS title game, even if all other teams have at least one loss. The Broncos might even have to fend off TCU for a BCS bowl spot if both teams finish the season undefeated.
Both Coaches and Harris polls continue to defy logic and undermine their credibility (whatever little they had to start with) with some oddball rankings. In the Coaches Poll, Oklahoma, with two losses, is ahead of BYU, which has one loss and has beaten the Sooners head-to-head. In the Harris Poll, Tennessee (3-3), Michigan State (3-3) and Connecticut (3-2) all received votes - which begs the question: Are these voters willfully ignorant or downright stupid?
But we'll never know. Since they won't tell us who voted how for whom.
As has been the practice since our inception, beginning next week, the Guru will release the projections for the BCS Standings by Saturday night, following the final game of consequence for the evening - in next week's case, the Missouri-Oklahoma State game that kicks off at 9:15 p.m. ET. On Sundays, the Guru will publish the most comprehensive BCS Standings anywhere, including every team that has received any points from the polls and computers.
The final Simulated BCS Standings are a bit of a downer, as world order appears to have been restored. Florida, the consensus No. 1 in the polls, is also No. 1 in the BCS Standings. The Gators will be No. 1 in the first official standings next week as well, no matter what happens as long as they defeat Arkansas. Florida is No. 1 because it has an insurmountable lead in the two polls.
Alabama checks in at No. 2, now slightly behind Florida in the computer ratings. The Tide have made up ground on Texas in the polls, tying the 'Horns in the Harris poll for No. 2. They have opened up a rather comfortable lead over everyone else while rolling toward a collision with Florida in the SEC title game.
Virginia Tech has leap-frogged unbeaten Texas for No. 3. The Longhorns, after another lackluster victory against an outmatched opponent, are slipping fast in the polls and getting no love from the computers. Texas' troubles with the computers will continue even if it defeats Oklahoma next week, as OU is ranked in the top 25 only by Billingsley.
Lurking at No. 6, behind Boise State, is USC. But the Trojans' misfortune with the computers is about to change. They face Notre Dame, Oregon State and Oregon in the next three weeks - three teams fairly well-regarded by the computers. If USC manages to sweep the trio, then it will have a chance to move back up the standings as some of the frontrunners fall. The Trojans finish the season with three straight home games.
The Guru's prediction of a Boise State ceiling appears to have been on target, as Boise is getting dropped by one-loss teams even during a bye week. USC jumped the Broncos in the always-suspect Coaches Poll though both teams were idle. In the Harris Poll, Boise was jumped by Virginia Tech this week.
After their Wednesday night game at Tulsa, the Broncos will finish the slate with seven straight against WAC opponents, with only one (Idaho) currently boasting a winning record. Boise State, at this juncture, appears to have no shot at the BCS title game, even if all other teams have at least one loss. The Broncos might even have to fend off TCU for a BCS bowl spot if both teams finish the season undefeated.
Both Coaches and Harris polls continue to defy logic and undermine their credibility (whatever little they had to start with) with some oddball rankings. In the Coaches Poll, Oklahoma, with two losses, is ahead of BYU, which has one loss and has beaten the Sooners head-to-head. In the Harris Poll, Tennessee (3-3), Michigan State (3-3) and Connecticut (3-2) all received votes - which begs the question: Are these voters willfully ignorant or downright stupid?
But we'll never know. Since they won't tell us who voted how for whom.
Sunday, October 11, 2009
The Guru's BlogPoll Ballot (Week 6)
The Guru's Week 6 BlogPoll, with notes below:
| ||
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 2 |
| 2 | Florida | 1 |
| 3 | Boise State | 1 |
| 4 | Texas | 2 |
| 5 | Virginia Tech | 2 |
| 6 | USC | |
| 7 | Oregon | 1 |
| 8 | Ohio State | 1 |
| 9 | Miami (Florida) | 1 |
| 10 | LSU | 5 |
| 11 | Iowa | 4 |
| 12 | Cincinnati | 1 |
| 13 | South Florida | 1 |
| 14 | TCU | |
| 15 | Georgia Tech | 2 |
| 16 | Brigham Young | |
| 17 | Penn State | 1 |
| 18 | Kansas | 2 |
| 19 | South Carolina | 5 |
| 20 | Nebraska | |
| 21 | Auburn | 8 |
| 22 | West Virginia | |
| 23 | Oklahoma | |
| 24 | Oklahoma State | |
| 25 | Utah | |
| Last week's ballot | ||
Dropped Out: Missouri (#19), Wisconsin (#21), Stanford (#23), Michigan (#25).
* There's major reshuffling at the top of my ballot. With teams having played about half of their schedules, their relative strengths are becoming more apparent. Based on whom they have played, and how they have won, there is little doubt in my mind that the Alabama Crimson Tide are the best team in college football right now.
* Florida drops to No. 2 because, against the best team they'll face all regular season, the Gators were less than impressive. And LSU was over-ranked in the first place - it easily could've been a two-loss team coming into the game. Alabama and Florida will sort this out anyway if they both remain unbeaten, in the SEC championship game.
* Among the top four unbeaten squads, Texas is decidedly the least impressive. Against vastly inferior competition, the Horns once again trailed going into halftime. Meanwhile, among teams with one loss, Virginia Tech has had the strongest wins and its lone loss was against Alabama in a hard-fought game.
* Only nine teams remain undefeated. Kansas is by far the most suspect, barely squeaking by Iowa State. I am of the belief that entering into November, we'll only have about 3-4 unbeaten teams left.
* Oklahoma gets back in the ballot despite having two losses. Frankly, with a bunch of one-loss teams that have played far inferior competition, the Sooners deserve to be ranked ahead of them. Utah gets back into the top 25 because I deemed the Utes as the best of the rest 1-loss lot vying for the last spot on my ballot.
* There's major reshuffling at the top of my ballot. With teams having played about half of their schedules, their relative strengths are becoming more apparent. Based on whom they have played, and how they have won, there is little doubt in my mind that the Alabama Crimson Tide are the best team in college football right now.
* Florida drops to No. 2 because, against the best team they'll face all regular season, the Gators were less than impressive. And LSU was over-ranked in the first place - it easily could've been a two-loss team coming into the game. Alabama and Florida will sort this out anyway if they both remain unbeaten, in the SEC championship game.
* Among the top four unbeaten squads, Texas is decidedly the least impressive. Against vastly inferior competition, the Horns once again trailed going into halftime. Meanwhile, among teams with one loss, Virginia Tech has had the strongest wins and its lone loss was against Alabama in a hard-fought game.
* Only nine teams remain undefeated. Kansas is by far the most suspect, barely squeaking by Iowa State. I am of the belief that entering into November, we'll only have about 3-4 unbeaten teams left.
* Oklahoma gets back in the ballot despite having two losses. Frankly, with a bunch of one-loss teams that have played far inferior competition, the Sooners deserve to be ranked ahead of them. Utah gets back into the top 25 because I deemed the Utes as the best of the rest 1-loss lot vying for the last spot on my ballot.
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