Saturday, October 17, 2009

First BCS Projection, 2009

A couple of upsets, a few near misses, and a baseball game that just would not end made for an interesting Saturday, the eve of the 2009 season's first BCS Standings.

Florida and Alabama both escaped with tough home wins against SEC foes. Texas held off Oklahoma again. And USC withstood an Irish rally to win its eighth straight against Notre Dame.

Virginia Tech and Ohio State weren't as fortunate. The Hokies are now officially out of the BCS title chase, and perhaps even the one for the ACC Coastal title, after an upset loss at Georgia Tech. Ohio State had a worse loss, getting bested by unranked Purdue at West Lafayette.

All this caused the top of the BCS Standings to undergo a little bit of a shakeup. The unbeaten ranks have further shrunk to just seven. The actual BCS title contenders number somewhere around a dozen, with a few 1-loss teams still very much in the mix.

The first BCS Standings will be announced Sunday afternoon, and of course, as a public service, the Guru will once again make projections for the top 15 teams on Saturday night. (If you want to see my track record, go right ahead.)

As a public service, this is Fox's BCS Standings release schedule, in its usual, we-will-just-tuck-it-in-between-some-NFL-games-because-we-don't-really-give-a-flying-hoot special kind of way. It's different every week, so this reference guide should come in handy:

(All Times Eastern)
Oct. 18 - Between 4 and 4:30 p.m. (after Fox's early NFL game)
Oct. 25 - 7:15-8 p.m. (during Fox's OT show)
Nov. 1 - 7:15-8 p.m. (during the OT show)
Nov. 8 - 4-4:30 (after early NFL game)
Nov. 15 - 7:15-8 p.m. (during the OT show)
Nov. 22 - 4-4:30 p.m. (after early NFL game)
Nov. 29 - 7:15-8 p.m. (during the OT show)
Dec. 6 - 8 p.m.

The good news is, after this season, Fox's four-year reign of terror on the BCS will be over.

And without further ado, here's the projected BCS Standings:

1. Florida, 2. Alabama, 3. Texas, 4. Boise State, 5. USC, 6. Iowa, 7. LSU, 8. Cincinnati, 9. TCU, 10. Miami (Fla.), 11. Oregon, 12. Georgia Tech, 13. Virginia Tech, 14. Penn State, 15. Oklahoma State.


Jeremy said...

Boise 4th? How realistic is their chance at the title game? Is it as simple as Texas and then the loser of the Alabama/Florida BCS title game?

mike said...

Curious to find out who controls their own fate. I think obviously Florida and Alabama. Does Texas have enough schedule juice to hold off 1 loss teams if they play only 1 or 2 teams in the top 25 the whole year? Also Sam has suggested Boise is probably at or near its peak, so do they stay at 4th even as they continue to win? I'd guess a 1-loss SEC champ (be it Alabama, Florida, or LSU) is in the title game.

Does Mack Brown lobby for Texas to stay ahead of Boise State as Oklahoma throws in the towel when Bradford is declared out for the season, Oregon runs the Pac-10 table, and the schedule factor favors Boise over Texas?

Could Alabama lose to LSU and not win its own division, and somehow get to play Florida in the title game?

Stephanie Joy said...

Not surprised to see Ohio State not on the list..bad bad bad loss to Purdue. Curious to see if Iowa can keep up the winning streak The Hawkeyes are definitely the ones to watch in the Big Ten.

Anonymous said...

How do you see Boise State ahead of USC right not? USC has 3 wins on the road vs ranked teams already. Only 6 teams in the country have as many as 2 total wins vs ranked opps. Boise State at 12-0 isn't as good as a 11-1 USC team.

Gary Conrad said...

I am a TCU fan but l am realistic. Boise loses a game and they go to 12 in the nation. TCU or Cincinnati loses a game and they are number 20. Texas or Florida or Alabama lose and they drop to 4 or 5 at worst.

On the other hand, how great is it that A & M is barely in the top 80! Maybe Texas Tech will score 100 on them.

Anonymous said...

Boise State, really? Really? Are they not just an overated highschool team that never plays against the big boys(ranked teams)?

dusitn said...

Your projections are probably correct, as far as how they will be ranked today, but I don't understand the USC over Iowa. USC lost to Washington, and although 3 of their wins were ranked at the time, only one is currently ranked in top 25(ohio state who just lost to purdue). Iowa has road wins at Penn State, and Wisconsin. Iowa is being ranked higher then I expected, but maybe not as high as they deserve.

Mr.Poindexter said...

I understand people being reluctant to believe Boise being ranked so high, but they do have a win over Oregon who is ranked very highly and the win @Fresno is a good win as time will show. They won @Fresno by 17 yet Cincy only beat Fresno by 8 in their own house.

Anonymous said...

I know Miami has a loss, but it's hard to believe they aren't a few spots higher. How many teams could have gone 3-1 in the 1st 4 games Miami had? No more than a couple. I hate the BCS.

The Guru said...

When I did the projections last night, the only thing I struggled with was whether Boise would stay ahead of USC for the No. 4 spot. The computers will continue to favor the Broncos for the time being, but I suspect the voters will start to desert them.

The Coaches Poll just came out, Boise is still No. 6 and USC No. 5. For now the Broncos are still ahead of the Trojans in my projections. But if the Harris voters decide to punish them for the lackluster win at Tulsa the way the AP voters did, then USC will get the No. 4 spot.

Anonymous said...

USC #7??? WTF!!
What is the big deal about the SEC? Tebow = very over rated... Alabama = can't throw

mike said...

Well, Florida and Alabama are undefeated in a power conference, and deserve to be at the top. I give Alabama credit for playing VA Tech. Florida hasn't proven much but the subjective part tells us they are somewhere near the top. USC is hurt by Cal and Ohio State having 2 losses each, but I think that will get better as the season goes on (Cal lost to Oregon and USC, which are probably better teams, but should fare better against the rest of the Pac 10).

If Florida runs the table I guess they deserve to be in, on the strength of wins over LSU and Alabama. But their official-aided win over Arkansas was similar to USC's loss to Washington (unlucky turnovers, coming off a big game, injured star players). I just hope Texas doesn't make it with its cupcake schedule and lucky break with Bradford being injured.

buffalowill said...

Mike...USC is hurt first and foremost by a loss at Washington. While UW looks like a decent team this year they are 3-4 with a very lucky win over a good Arizona team. Fact of the matter is that LSU won in Seattle. You can't go back on those facts... Unfortunately, at this point the BCS will reward the teams with the best record and NOT necessarily the "best" team.
Also, Florida's OOC schedule is not even in the same league as Texas' that everyone is bashing as well. Florida has a BAD FCS team and 2 teams from the Sun Belt (the worst FBS conferences by far)and FSU ALL at home. Texas at the very least played @ Wyoming and 2 C-USA opponents and NO FCS teams (something the SEC's top teams cannot say). Give credit to playing away at a Mountain West school.

buffalowill said...

Also, much of Florida's SOS so far hinges on their one game at LSU. If the Tiger's they loose AND fall significantly in the polls, the Gator's SOS could plummet in the computers dropping them to the second spot in the BCS...what I am saying is to look for Alabama to take over that top spot in the coming weeks. I found a great article on related to the schedule topic and I will post the link if the Guru abides. It is not a blog post, but a national article.