Saturday, October 24, 2009

Almost Famous

Lane Kiffin came close. He was accused of not trying to win against Florida, but no such allegation may be lodged against him and his Tennessee Volunteers this week. Had Daniel Lincoln put a little more arc on his field goal attempts, we would be here discussing how the next BCS Standings would be completely shaken up.

Instead, it's a weekend of what it might have been.

Throw in another Sparty, No! moment, what we are left with is simply status quo at the top of the BCS Standings.

Or is it?

Florida, Alabama and Texas will remain in the top three spots - in that order - in Sunday's BCS Standings. However, some shuffling will be in order for the next five slots.

(Brad Edwards, ESPN's alleged "BCS Expert" had this to say ... now, I may not be 100 percent accurate all the time, but what the hell kind of "expert" offers up this sort of insightful analysis? My four-year-old, armed with an abacus, can make this call. Lame.)

The 4-8 spots will be close, and how the order plays out will depend largely on the voters of the two polls. Will they consider TCU now good enough to be in the top 5, or will they continue to let the Horned Frogs languish in the 7-8 spots? Will they punish Iowa for needing the very last second to escape Michigan State? Will USC be hurt by its yet another closer-than-expected victory?

With Boise State safely ahead, 34-0, at the half in paradise (and the Guru's sometime offseason home), there is enough data to run the projections. It'll be close, but unlike some people, I won't chicken out.

The projected BCS Standings:

1. Florida, 2. Alabama, 3. Texas, 4. Iowa, 5. TCU, 6. Boise State, 7. Cincinnati, 8. USC, 9. LSU, 10. Oregon, 11. Georgia Tech, 12. Penn State, 13. Virginia Tech, 14. Oklahoma State, 15. Utah.

25 comments:

larry said...

How are TCU, Cincy, and Boise St ranked so high when they've ONLY beaten 1 ranked team each? Are we ranking which team has the best record or which are the best teams?

That's why in the 60's-80's, teams with 1 loss would still win the national championship over an undefeated team whose played no one.

Anonymous said...

Do you watch football? Iowa needed a last second miracle to beat a mediocre team, why would they jump anyone. Utah went to overtime with a bad team why would they move up they'll drop a spot. Cincinatti destroyed their opponent with a backup QB why would they drop. Boise is currently destroying their opponent. I'll wait till monday to post again so I can say I told you so. Either Pitt or Houston will be #15

Anonymous said...

larry, uhm, Florida has beaten only one ranked team so far. Iowa has only beaten one ranked team so far. Texas has only beaten one ranked team so far... Florida has only one other ranked opponent on its schedule. TCU has another ranked opponent on its schedule. Cincinnati has two more on its schedule.

Anonymous said...

I has defeated:

Arizona (ranked 22 in the BCS)
Wisconsin (ranked 25? in the BCS)
Penn State (ranked 13 in the BCS)

Wisonsin, Penn State and MSU on the road. I would like to see how other teams would handle that. Plus, we have a date in OSU (ranked 19 in BCS) still looming. If Iowa runs the table they will deserve at least the 3 spot (assuming Fla & Ala play in SEC championship)

This team reminds me of OSU in 02(?). They barely won every game, but they won every game.

Anonymous said...

@ Larry,
Simple answer, the Sports Media, like all media, have put aside real journalism, and resorting to "polling data" to write the news. The Sports Media goes even further by using their own polls to create copy. If everyone acknowledged that "mid-majors teams" play "mid-major schedules" and in the real world would not even be in the discussion of who should play for the National Championship.

Not to diminish the efforts of TCU, Boise State, and Cincinnati (there, I said it, the Big East became a mid-major with the loss of Miami, VA Tech, and BC, they just haven't admitted it yet.)

The Sports Media love the "Cinderella story," as long as we have jocks out number real journalists in the reporting of Sports, we would get over it.

I have two suggestions, that would destroy the "mid-major myth). Remove historical ties to the BCS Bowls; and only allow the Conference Champion into the BCS, unless they are ranked in the top 5 in the final BCS rankings. The extra slot could go to another "wannabe." After a few years of the sacrificial lambs getting slaughtered by the Big Boys, we could get back to the real world.

Jams said...

You guys know that the Guru here is only making a projection of what the BCS standings will be, not his opinion of what the rankings should be, right?

Wait til his blogpoll ballot is up if you really want to argue about who's better-- but he's the BCS Guru for a reason, so I'll go ahead and trust his projections.

CuseFanInSoCal said...

Ask 2005 Georgia, 2006 Wake Forest, and 2007 Oklahoma about the 'mid-major' Big East.

utesfan100 said...

CuseFanInsoCal:

Or the 2004 Pittsburgh, 2006 Oklahoma or 2008 Alabama teams...

Looks to me like the Big East is at least as good as the mid-majors ; )

LAprGuy said...

Making arguments about rankings by citing how your team has beat ranked teams is, well, it borders on absurd.

Iowa is credible not because it beat "ranked" teams, but because it plays a schedule of three-deep college football teams that play in conferences of three-deep teams in stadiums that seat giant crowds. It's big time football.

(Not that I would call Alabama-Tennessee watchable football.)

The more I see these "polls," the more I think the BCS conferences are the ones getting screwed by the system, and not the other way around.

Paterno Lives! said...

I'm still confused why USC is getting so much love over undefeated teams in the human polls. Iowa's best win is unquestionably better than USC's, and then there is the whole "undefeated" thing that doesn't include a loss to a team that probably won't even make a bowl game.

Frankly, USC is getting annoying.

Anonymous said...

Well if Iowa gets screwed like we all think they will, it'll be SEC/Texas in the national CG and if USC beats Oregon, then USC/Iowa in the Rose Bowl.

Seems like every year a STRONG Big 10 team comes calling in the Rose Bowl and gets beat down. Then when you include the last 2 Ohio State losses to USC plus an upcoming Minnesota game next year, hopefully the Big 10 can beat USC. Otherwise if an undefeated Big 10 gets throttled, the media will still be down on the Big 10.

dustin said...

As an Iowa fan, I wouldn't necessarily consider Iowa as screwed if an undefeated Texas gets picked over an undefeated Iowa for the NC game. What would be Iowa getting screwed, and I could easily see happening given the human poll bias is a 1 loss USC going to NC over a undefeated Iowa...Talk about screwed.

Anonymous said...

That GT may only jump one spot is a travesty. Oregon should not be in front of them. Washington is arguably worse than UVA (the annual USC egg-laying notwithstanding). If you went to dictionary.com and looked up domination, you'd find a video of the GT-UVA game.

Larry said...

Actually, y'all are correct. Iowa has played a heck of a schedule. Iowa has proved themselves as well as TCU has. It's a shame that we might have multiple undefeated teams just like in 2004 (USC, Oklahoma, Auburn and Utah) and they couldn't match them all up against one another for a plus one.

I would love to have an undefeated SEC, Big 12, Big 10, Big East, WAC and Mountain West team. If Texas wins vs Okla St, they not losing. Iowa, Cincy and TCU still have work to do. But that would be GREAT!!!! Fun blogging with y'all.

Anonymous said...

Here's what baffles me. How does Alabama, Iowa, Florida win these tough games and then you hear "tough game", "they pulled it out", "a W is a W" etc. But when USC or Boise St win a close one, it's "Oh, they should have won by more" or "They didn't look good."

That annoys me. Miss St? Michigan St? Tennessee? Didn't UCLA go on the road and beat UT at home? I don't get the bias. It's really messing the polls up how two teams can play an inferior opponent at home, barely win and get different opinions on them.

dustin said...

Nice, only Iowa can go on the road, be an "underdog" to Michigan St. win, and drop in the Harris poll.

Anonymous said...

"How does Alabama, Iowa, Florida win these tough games and then you hear "tough game""

Ahh, if only that was actually happening with Iowa. But it isn't. The response to Iowa's win has been "gee, maybe we should finally buy it... but I'm still not convinced".

Anonymous said...

CFN said it well today:

If Florida can continue to get unquestioned top-two consideration despite struggling so much against a mediocre Arkansas and a lousy Mississippi State, and if Alabama can be deep in the national title hunt after struggling to get by an average Tennessee, then Iowa should get more credit for coming up with the tremendous last-second win over Michigan State — on the road.

Bobby Caygeon said...

Did anyone watch that Iowa/MSU game? Just terrible football.

Dustin said...

I wouldn't call the Iowa/MSU terrible football, they are both very strong defenses and average (to below average) offenses. There were no turnovers, two series where the opposing team was stopped 3 times on the goalline (settling for 3pts). And two back to back end of game runs, one by each team. It was one of the most exciting finishes I have seen in a long time. Did you watch it Bobby?

Nick said...

It's obvious Bobby didn't watch it.

The game had some of the best smash mouth defensive plays this entire season. Even with the low score, it was an amazing game to watch.

Iowa fans need to wake the hell up and realize that USC is going to be ahead of Iowa the rest of the way. So the only shot at the NC will be if 2 people in front of Iowa lost (assume USC is ahead of IA). Even if just Texas lost, voters would put USC in the NC.

Its the most disgusting way to crown a national champion in any sport.

Iowa has played the 4th toughest schedule so far, and people say they haven't played anyone.

I love the argument "winning tough road games gets you in the NC" Of the undefeated's, Iowa has played the TOUGHEST road game schedule so far, and still gets shit thrown at them.

Give Iowa some credit.

Anonymous said...

It seems like someoe from every conference came on here and compained about bias against them or in favor of someone else. I like to compare the computer score to the human poll. Computers can have no bias. Teams gettig undue human poll love are USC, Ohio State and Miami, teams getting not enough human love Oregon, Arizona and Cal. Everyone else is about where they deserve to be.

Anonymous said...

You guys kill me about Iowa's road schedule.

Let's talk about USC's road schedule, shall we...

tOSU, ND, Cal, Oregon, and ASU. Sure, we had Washington. Four of those teams are currently ranked in the top 25.

Also, 2 of those teams are OOC. Argue all you want about SJSU, but those other two are legit. ND at at is still a tough road win.

As for Iowa. Come on, you barely beat who at home? Northern Illinois and Arky State. Wow, I think even San Jose could beat them.

People need to stop looking at computers and beauty contests and look at what is staring them in the face. Don't even compare playing MSU in Lansing with USC's road sched.

Please.

Nick said...

USC's road schedule is comparable to Iowa's. Nobody should discredit that. But there's one thing Iowa has that USC doesn't. ZERO LOSSES

and UNI = Uni. of Northern Iowa

USC fans have nothing to complain about, they will be #4 (the gap between 3 and 4 really small) if they beat Oregon next week. USC could easily play in the NC even if Texas doesn't lose.

mike said...

Well it looks like USC will have their shot no matter what. If they beat Oregon they will probably jump Iowa at least until Iowa gets to play Ohio State (maybe even if they do, since Iowa's already maxed out their computer rating and the computers don't like Ohio State anyway).

With USC still having 3 teams with winning records still to play they probably have a few spots to move up in the computers (also with Ohio State and Cal moving back up).

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