Monday, October 12, 2009

Final Simulated BCS Standings

Next Sunday, the BCS will release its first official standings for the 2009 season, so this is the final Simulated BCS Standings.

As has been the practice since our inception, beginning next week, the Guru will release the projections for the BCS Standings by Saturday night, following the final game of consequence for the evening - in next week's case, the Missouri-Oklahoma State game that kicks off at 9:15 p.m. ET. On Sundays, the Guru will publish the most comprehensive BCS Standings anywhere, including every team that has received any points from the polls and computers.

The final Simulated BCS Standings are a bit of a downer, as world order appears to have been restored. Florida, the consensus No. 1 in the polls, is also No. 1 in the BCS Standings. The Gators will be No. 1 in the first official standings next week as well, no matter what happens as long as they defeat Arkansas. Florida is No. 1 because it has an insurmountable lead in the two polls.

Alabama checks in at No. 2, now slightly behind Florida in the computer ratings. The Tide have made up ground on Texas in the polls, tying the 'Horns in the Harris poll for No. 2. They have opened up a rather comfortable lead over everyone else while rolling toward a collision with Florida in the SEC title game.

Virginia Tech has leap-frogged unbeaten Texas for No. 3. The Longhorns, after another lackluster victory against an outmatched opponent, are slipping fast in the polls and getting no love from the computers. Texas' troubles with the computers will continue even if it defeats Oklahoma next week, as OU is ranked in the top 25 only by Billingsley.

Lurking at No. 6, behind Boise State, is USC. But the Trojans' misfortune with the computers is about to change. They face Notre Dame, Oregon State and Oregon in the next three weeks - three teams fairly well-regarded by the computers. If USC manages to sweep the trio, then it will have a chance to move back up the standings as some of the frontrunners fall. The Trojans finish the season with three straight home games.

The Guru's prediction of a Boise State ceiling appears to have been on target, as Boise is getting dropped by one-loss teams even during a bye week. USC jumped the Broncos in the always-suspect Coaches Poll though both teams were idle. In the Harris Poll, Boise was jumped by Virginia Tech this week.

After their Wednesday night game at Tulsa, the Broncos will finish the slate with seven straight against WAC opponents, with only one (Idaho) currently boasting a winning record. Boise State, at this juncture, appears to have no shot at the BCS title game, even if all other teams have at least one loss. The Broncos might even have to fend off TCU for a BCS bowl spot if both teams finish the season undefeated.

Both Coaches and Harris polls continue to defy logic and undermine their credibility (whatever little they had to start with) with some oddball rankings. In the Coaches Poll, Oklahoma, with two losses, is ahead of BYU, which has one loss and has beaten the Sooners head-to-head. In the Harris Poll, Tennessee (3-3), Michigan State (3-3) and Connecticut (3-2) all received votes - which begs the question: Are these voters willfully ignorant or downright stupid?

But we'll never know. Since they won't tell us who voted how for whom.


Aaron said...

You overlooked the computer polls for Houston.

JB said...

Enjoy the site Guru. Very informative. I have been linking to you on BCS related articles on the below TCU site, including an article posted today. Keep up the good work.

Scott said...

Where do you get the computer rankings from? I've been waiting for the anderson & hester ranking all day, and it just appeared for me on their site at around 6pm PDT.

buffalowill said...

It has become unfortunately apparent that the single most important poll and "event" of the college football is the preseason poll. How else do these "top" teams stay there? How else do teams, as long as they beat FCS schools, and remain undefeated or lose once in conference, will be guaranteed a spot in the championship game? Does it no longer matter who you play?

What goes into these preseason rankings? Why does USC "fall" from final 2009 poll #2 to preseason #4? Why does Utah fall from #4 all the way to #18? Ole Miss jumps from #15 all the way up to #10...for what reason? Oregon falls from #9 to #14....3 spots BEHIND an Oklahoma State team they beat soundly in the Holiday Bowl!?!?! TCU from #7 all the way to #17...1 spot BEHIND a Boise State team they beat in the Poinsettia Bowl.

I could go on...can someone explain this. None of this is based on ON THE FIELD results...none of it.

I am done for now.

LAprGuy said...

Buffalowill: Ditto.