The Guru's BlogPoll (Week 9)

The Guru's BlogPoll ballot, with comments below:

BCS Guru Ballot - Week 9

Rank	Team	Delta
1	LSU Tigers	--
2	Alabama Crimson Tide	--
3	Stanford Cardinal	--
4	Boise St. Broncos	--
5	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	--
6	Oregon Ducks	--
7	Arkansas Razorbacks	2
8	Oklahoma Sooners	2
9	Nebraska Cornhuskers	4
10	Houston Cougars	4
11	Michigan Wolverines	6
12	Kansas St. Wildcats	-4
13	Clemson Tigers	-6
14	Virginia Tech Hokies	1
15	South Carolina Gamecocks	3
16	Penn St. Nittany Lions	3
17	Georgia Bulldogs	3
18	Michigan St. Spartans	-7
19	Wisconsin Badgers	-7
20	Arizona St. Sun Devils	3
21	USC Trojans	-5
22	Cincinnati Bearcats	2
23	Southern Miss. Golden Eagles	2
24	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	--
25	Texas Longhorns	--
Dropouts: Texas A&M Aggies, Texas Tech Red Raiders

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

* Without question, LSU and Alabama are the two best teams in the country. We'll find out who is better this week. There is a small, but not completely insignificant possibility that we might have a rematch. That will be predicated on how close this game is and also how the other contenders perform in the coming weeks.

* The top of my ballot remains pretty stable, as the two weakest (previously) unbeaten teams were exposed last week. There is a major shakeup in the Big Ten with both Wisconsin and Michigan State losing. That will be the conference to watch in the season's final month, as it's the one that's most in flux.

* The teams that are most likely to go unbeaten in the regular season, in order of my estimation (from most likely to least likely): Boise State, Houston, Oklahoma State, Stanford, LSU, Alabama.

* New teams that made the ballot this week: Georgia Tech, Texas.

* Conference-by-conference tally: SEC (5), Big Ten (5), Big 12 (4), Pac-12 (4), ACC (3), C-USA (2), MWC (1), Big East (1).

Bloodbaths ... and a Thriller

Boise State had one of the most productive bye weeks a team could ever hope for.

Without putting on their pads and hitting anybody, the Broncos' path to the BCS title game suddenly became much wider than just an alley way. In fact, if it wasn't for Stanford's thrilling triple-overtime win over USC, that path would've been as broad as the Champs Elysees.

But Stanford did win, with Andrew Luck rallying his team after a disastrous pick-six that nearly ended the Cardinal's 15-game winning streak. And as a result, Stanford will jump ahead of Boise State into the fourth spot, behind idle LSU and Alabama and their presumptive title-game opponent Oklahoma State, in the BCS Standings.

Still, with Clemson and Kansas State proving to be mere pretenders, the Broncos now have a better shot than anyone to go through the regular season undefeated. The debate ultimately may hinge on whether Boise State is more worthy as the SEC champ's BCS title game opponent than a 1-loss team from a BCS conference.

Yep, don't count out Oklahoma just yet, either.

More exclusive analysis to come at SB Nation. Now, the BCS Standings projections:

1. LSU, 2. Alabama, 3. Oklahoma State, 4. Stanford, 5. Boise State, 6. Oklahoma, 7. Oregon, 8. Arkansas, 9. South Carolina, 10. Virginia Tech, 11. Nebraska, 12. Houston, 13. Michigan, 14. Kansas State, 15. Penn State.

Who Else After LSU and Alabama?

Before we start hyping the Nov. 5 "Game of the Century, 2011 Edition" and pondering a rematch between these same teams in New Orleans next Jan. 9, here's a reminder:

There are other games that still have to be played and they might still matter, just a little.

To be sure, the LSU-Alabama showdown deserves all the attention it gets, including the belated move to primetime after CBS traded with ESPN for, essentially, "a game to be named later." And we will get into that plenty next week.

But it will be next week. Thanks to ingenious scheduling by the SEC, somehow BOTH teams have a bye to get ready for this titanic tilt. While they practice, a few other teams will be jockeying for the spot in the on-deck circle, hoping for a shot at the winner in the BCS national championship game.

The latest BCS standings tell this much: The top three teams - LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma State - control their own destinies. After that, it's far from certain.

This week's BCS Bowl projections:

Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Boise State
Sugar Bowl: Stanford vs. Nebraska
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Syracuse
BCS Championship: LSU vs. Alabama

(Full analysis exclusively at SB Nation)

The Guru's BlogPoll (Week 8)

The Guru's BlogPoll ballot, with notes below:

BCS Guru
Ballot - Week 8

Rank	Team	Delta
1	LSU	--
2	Alabama	--
3	Stanford	2
4	Boise St.	--
5	Oklahoma St.	2
6	Oregon (#1 LSU)	2
7	Clemson	2
8	Kansas St.	2
9	Arkansas (#2 Alabama)	2
10	Oklahoma (#22 Texas Tech)	-7
11	Michigan St. (Notre Dame)	5
12	Wisconsin (#11 Michigan St.)	-6
13	Nebraska (#12 Wisconsin)	--
14	Houston	1
15	Virginia Tech (#7 Clemson)	-1
16	USC (#23 Arizona St.)	2
17	Michigan (#11 Michigan St.)	--
18	South Carolina (Auburn)	1
19	Penn St. (#2 Alabama)	3
20	Georgia (#4 Boise, #18 SoCar)	5
21	Texas A&M (#5 OSU, #9 Arkansas)	--
22	Texas Tech (#8 KSU, #21 Texas A&M)	--
23	Arizona St. (#6 Oregon, Illinois)	--
24	Cincinnati (Tennessee)	--
25	Southern Miss (Marshall)	--

* In order to make sense of the rankings a bit, I've decided to insert the teams' losses in the ballot. Of course, I may not be able to keep up as losses certainly will mount for the lower-ranked teams. But for now, it adds another dimension to the ballot.

* Oklahoma was thoroughly exposed as a team with a suspect defense. In fact, after taking a second look, the Sooners may not even be deserving to stay in the top 10. Of all the teams ranked in the mid-teens, OU has by far the worst loss and has not beaten anybody on my ballot's Top 25.

* Is Stanford for real? We'll finally find out next week when it travels to L.A. to face USC.

* New teams that made the ballot this week: Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Southern Miss.

* Conference-by-conference tally: SEC (5), Big Ten (5), Big 12 (5), Pac-12 (4), ACC (2), C-USA (2), MWC (1), Big East (1).

LSU-Alabama II?

The biggest winner Saturday night after the miracle in Lansing and the debacle in Norman?

The loser of the SEC-Alabama game in two weeks.

Losses by Oklahoma and Wisconsin reduced the ranks of the unbeatens to just eight, with only six having a realistic shot at the BCS title game (sorry K-State and Houston). But an unimpressive victory by Boise State at home against Air Force could also potentially prove fatal for the Broncos' championship quest.

If Oklahoma State should stumble somewhere along the way, the possibility of a rematch between SEC West rivals LSU and Alabama in the BCS national championship game becomes very real. As it is, these two teams will be significantly ahead of everyone else in the next BCS standings, with another gulf between No. 3 Oklahoma State and the rest.

What that means is that in the event of a close game in two weeks in Tuscaloosa, the loser will not fall too far in the standings and has ample chance to climb back up to No. 2. On top of all that, it won't have to play an extra game against an SEC East foe to drag down its computer rankings.

The Guru's projections are here, with a full analysis exclusively at SB Nation:

1. LSU, 2. Alabama, 3. Oklahoma State, 4. Clemson, 5. Stanford, 6. Boise State, 7. Arkansas, 8. Kansas State, 9. Oregon, 10. Oklahoma, 11. Nebraska, 12. Michigan State, 13. Wisconsin, 14. South Carolina, 15. Virginia Tech.

The Guru at SB Nation

The Guru will be appearing on SB Nation to provide exclusive college football and BCS analysis beginning this weekend. The Guru's articles will be featured Sunday and Monday mornings at SB Nation's college football page.

The projections of BCS Standings will continue to be featured here each Saturday night throughout the college football season. Please do join us at SB Nation for more detailed analysis.

The Guru's BlogPoll (Week 7)

The Guru's BlogPoll ballot, with comments below:

BCS Guru Ballot - Week 8

Rank	Team	Delta
1	LSU Tigers	--
2	Alabama Crimson Tide	--
3	Oklahoma Sooners	--
4	Boise St. Broncos	--
5	Stanford Cardinal	--
6	Wisconsin Badgers	--
7	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	--
8	Oregon Ducks	--
9	Clemson Tigers	--
10	Kansas St. Wildcats	5
11	Arkansas Razorbacks	2
12	West Virginia Mountaineers	--
13	Nebraska Cornhuskers	1
14	Virginia Tech Hokies	3
15	Houston Cougars	3
16	Michigan St. Spartans	--
17	Michigan Wolverines	-7
18	USC Trojans	2
19	South Carolina Gamecocks	3
20	Washington Huskies	5
21	Illinois Fighting Illini	-5
22	Penn St. Nittany Lions	--
23	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	-12
24	Auburn Tigers	--
25	Georgia Bulldogs	--
Dropouts: Arizona St. Sun Devils, Texas Longhorns, Baylor Bears, North Carolina Tar Heels

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

* Yeah, there's just about no change at the top, so shoot me. Three undefeated teams - but the three more suspect ones, went down. Two others (Kansas State and Clemson) escaped with wins, but their luck will run out soon. It's possible that there could be as many as six unbeatens, including Houston, at the end of the season. At worst, there will be at least three.

* The good news is that at least in two instances, the matter will be settled on the field. But don't count out the LSU-Alabama loser on Nov. 5. It has just enough time to creep back up the standings to force a rematch if the OU-OSU winner should stumble along the way.

* There's a pretty big gap from No. 8 to No. 9 on my ballot. After that, all the teams are nearly indistinguishable from one another.

* New teams that made the ballot this week: Michigan State, Penn State, Auburn, Georgia.

* Conference-by-conference tally: SEC (6), Big Ten (6), Pac-12 (4), Big 12 (3), ACC (3), MWC (1), Big East (1), C-USA (1).

What Else Is New? SEC Rules!

The first official BCS Standings will have this resemblance of last year's final polls: a team from the SEC will be on top.

Whereas Auburn finished as the BCS national champion last season, their archrival Alabama will debut as No. 1 when the first BCS standings of 2011 is unveiled Sunday night. LSU will edge Oklahoma for the No. 2 spot, as the two SEC West foes march inexorably toward their gargantuan showdown on Nov. 5 in Tuscaloosa.

With Michigan, Illinois and Georgia Tech all losing, the ranks of the unbeatens have now shrunk to 10. And since Kansas State and Houston are not realistic title contenders, this year's BCS national champion will come from the remaining eight undefeated teams.

Conveniently, they will also appear as the top eight ranked teams in the initial BCS standings. The Guru's projections:

1. Alabama, 2. LSU, 3. Oklahoma, 4. Oklahoma State, 5. Boise State, 6. Wisconsin, 7. Clemson, 8. Stanford, 9. Arkansas, 10. South Carolina, 11. Oregon, 12. Kansas State, 13. Nebraska, 14. Michigan, 15. Virginia Tech.

Roses, But No Crystal Ball, for Big Ten and Pac-12

The first official BCS Standings of the 2011 season is due out next Sunday. But with both the Coaches Poll and Harris Poll, plus five of the six computer data available, we already have a pretty good picture (about 94 percent accurate) on what the BCS landscape will be like.

It will come up Roses for the Big Ten and Pac-12 winner. As in, Pasadena, instead of the BCS title game.

The BCS final battles will be settled when LSU goes to Alabama on Nov. 5 and, if applicable, when Oklahoma visits Stillwater for Bedlam on Dec. 3. Almost no other games will matter, and that includes the inaugural Big Ten and Pac-12 championships.

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SIMULATED BCS STANDINGS

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While each league still has an unbeaten team that has a legitimate shot at going undefeated (Wisconsin and Stanford), they'll have neither the poll support nor the computer points to overtake the survivors of the two aforementioned showdowns.

The Badgers are the odds-on favorite to win the Leaders Division of the new Big Ten, but their best-case scenario will be the Rose Bowl at this point. The Badgers have only themselves to blame for their cupcake-filled nonconference schedule that dragged down their computer rankings. In three of the five computer ratings available, Wisconsin is ranked in the mid-teens.

Stanford is likewise done in by its schedule, but its main problem will be the polls. The Cardinal have yet to play a ranked team and their only chance to demonstrate their worth for the voters will be their Nov. 12 showdown against Oregon. USC and Notre Dame remain on Stanford's schedule, but they may be of only limited utility to Andrew Luck & Co.

At the moment, it appears the winner of the LSU-Alabama game will be a lock to go unbeaten, as the winner of the weak SEC East won't be able to put up much resistance in the conference championship game. Oklahoma may be a bit more vulnerable, as it has a trip to Oklahoma State and games at Manhattan and Waco still remaining. But at least the Sooners don't need to worry about a potential trap in the now-defunct Big 12 title game.

Now, should OU falter, who's more likely to step in?

Firmly in the on-deck circle is Boise State. The Broncos already had its signature win in their season opener against Georgia, and it may be consigned to a fate of not having faced a single ranked opponent. They will be heavily-favored to run the table, but the Broncos will have no shot at the BCS title game unless OU or the SEC winner loses a game.

If the Broncos should lose a shocker (very unlikely) or slump in the BCS standings (more plausible), then here's the surprise. The winner of the ACC faceoff between Clemson and Georgia Tech on Oct. 29 in Atlanta may be a darkhorse for the BCS title game should the SEC or Big 12 leaders falter. Both teams have relatively healthy computer rankings and still have decent opponents left on the schedule to boost their profile.

There are four other unbeaten teams left (Michigan, Illinois, Kansas State, Houston), but none of them is a serious threat to remain unbeaten the rest of the season. So one week before we're even into the official BCS standings, the pecking order is pretty much set.

The Rose Bowl hates the idea of being thought of as a consolation prizes, but that's what it gets from its Faustian bargain with the BCS.

The Guru's BlogPoll (Week 6)

The Guru's BlogPoll ballot, with notes below:

BCS Guru Ballot - Week 6

Rank	Team	Delta
1	LSU Tigers	--
2	Alabama Crimson Tide	--
3	Oklahoma Sooners	--
4	Boise St. Broncos	--
5	Stanford Cardinal	--
6	Wisconsin Badgers	--
7	Oklahoma St. Cowboys	--
8	Oregon Ducks	--
9	Clemson Tigers	--
10	Michigan Wolverines	--
11	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	1
12	West Virginia Mountaineers	1
13	Arkansas Razorbacks	1
14	Nebraska Cornhuskers	2
15	Kansas St. Wildcats	3
16	Illinois Fighting Illini	3
17	Virginia Tech Hokies	--
18	Houston Cougars	2
19	Arizona St. Sun Devils	3
20	USC Trojans	4
21	Texas Longhorns	-10
22	South Carolina Gamecocks	1
23	Baylor Bears	--
24	North Carolina Tar Heels	--
25	Washington Huskies	--
Dropouts: Florida Gators, Auburn Tigers, San Diego St. Aztecs

SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »

* Wow, that's some seriously boring ballot, ain't it? The Top 10 are absolutely unchanged and the top 20 are about the same except for a couple of losing teams dropping out. There was not a single surprise last week as every single team on my ballot won unless they were playing a higher-ranked opponent. Except San Diego State, but it was No. 25 and lost to a TCU team that was favored by 4 points.

* And don't expect much from next week, either. Only three games involving the top 10 teams that might cause a ripple - Oklahoma State at Texas, Michigan at Michigan State and Arizona State at Oregon. The top six teams, the only real candidates for the national championship, are all facing double-digit underdogs.

* At this point, I'm not willing to put any two-loss team on the ballot. Texas A&M is still in all the polls, which befuddles me. And yes, Florida lost to the top 2 teams on my ballot, but lost each game by at least four touchdowns. That team's not worthy of a top 25 spot right now.

* New teams that made the ballot this week: Baylor, North Carolina, Washington.

* Conference-by-conference tally: Pac-12 (5), Big 12 (5), SEC (4), Big Ten (4), ACC (4), MWC (1), Big East (1), C-USA (1).