The biggest winner Saturday night after the miracle in Lansing and the debacle in Norman?
The loser of the SEC-Alabama game in two weeks.
Losses by Oklahoma and Wisconsin reduced the ranks of the unbeatens to just eight, with only six having a realistic shot at the BCS title game (sorry K-State and Houston). But an unimpressive victory by Boise State at home against Air Force could also potentially prove fatal for the Broncos' championship quest.
If Oklahoma State should stumble somewhere along the way, the possibility of a rematch between SEC West rivals LSU and Alabama in the BCS national championship game becomes very real. As it is, these two teams will be significantly ahead of everyone else in the next BCS standings, with another gulf between No. 3 Oklahoma State and the rest.
What that means is that in the event of a close game in two weeks in Tuscaloosa, the loser will not fall too far in the standings and has ample chance to climb back up to No. 2. On top of all that, it won't have to play an extra game against an SEC East foe to drag down its computer rankings.
The Guru's projections are here, with a full analysis exclusively at SB Nation:
1. LSU, 2. Alabama, 3. Oklahoma State, 4. Clemson, 5. Stanford, 6. Boise State, 7. Arkansas, 8. Kansas State, 9. Oregon, 10. Oklahoma, 11. Nebraska, 12. Michigan State, 13. Wisconsin, 14. South Carolina, 15. Virginia Tech.
8 comments:
Why exclude K-State? If they go undefeated, beating OU, OSU, A&M, Baylor, and Texas, they will be in the BCS Championship game. It might be a tall order to go undefeated, but I think they have a better shot of that than Boise making it in, even if they go undefeated.
I liked the article, but I agree with Chad. Why does Kansas State not have a realistic chance at a National Championship? I agree that their odds of winning out are VERY slim, but if they do, they will have played virtually the same schedule as OK and OSU, both of whom had very realistic hopes for the Title Game.
My question is, "why do the computers like Oklahoma State so much? And SEC teams so much less?"
An undefeated AQ conference school has never missed the BCS title game in a year where there were two or fewer such teams. I don't think Kansas State will win out, but they'd almost certainly jump Boise if they did (certainly in the computers, voters less certain)
The only possible way you will see an all SEC National Championship game is is if Clemson, K-State, Okie State, and Stanford finish the season w/ at least 1 loss. If any of those teams go undefeated and win their conference they would most certainly be a better fit in the championship game than a 1 loss SEC team.
You're smoking crack if you think a one loss SEC team makes the NC game over an undefeated team from a BCS conference. There's just no way that happens.
As I see the numbers playing out, you're right on LSU-Bama-Ok. St. being 1-2-3. I think that Stanford gets 4, Boise just behind at 5, and Clemson at 6. (Sagarin and Massey are not kind to Clemson.)
Wow...big WHIFF! after 3...
If the regular season is a playoff as I often hear, then why in the world would you have a rematch? The loser would have had their chance already.
At the very least you would expect the national champion to be have been able to win their conference, or at least their division.
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